Trade Deadline Primer: Colorado Avalanche
Although we’re now just two months into the season, the trade deadline is only a month away. Where does each team stand and what moves should they be looking to make? We continue our look around the league with the Colorado Avalanche.
It has been a trying year for Colorado so far, one that saw them head into the season as a perceived Stanley Cup contender. They’ve been hit hard by injuries as well as a COVID-19 outbreak and the end result has them in fourth in the West Division although they’re still within striking distance of first-place Vegas. With some big-ticket raises on the horizon and several pending free agents of note, this could be their best shot to truly contend. Accordingly, expect GM Joe Sakic to be active in terms of trying to add to the roster over the coming weeks.
Record
14-8-2, 4th in West Division
Deadline Status
Buyer
Deadline Cap Space
$582Kin full-season space ($1.299MM at the trade deadline), $7.4175MM in LTIR room*, 1/3 retention slots used, 43/50 contracts used per CapFriendly.
* – The majority of this space comes from Erik Johnson ($6MM). He was transferred to LTIR this week but if Colorado believes that he will return this season, they won’t be able to use this room at the trade deadline.
Upcoming Draft Picks
2021: COL 1st, COL 3rd, COL 5th, COL 6th, COL 7th
2022: COL 1st, COL 3rd, COL 4th, COL 5th, COL 6th, COL 7th
Trade Chips
Last offseason, Tyson Jost wound up accepting his qualifying offer worth just over $874K, a deal that basically took advantage of him having minimal leverage coming off of a tough season without arbitration eligibility. It felt like a make-or-break year as a result. Unfortunately for both him and the Avs, this season has leaned towards the latter for the 2016 tenth-overall selection. Jost has just a goal and two assists in 22 games despite averaging nearly 14 minutes per night. It’s just not working for him right now. As a result, this feels like a prime change of scenery situation. He’s still just 22 which should be appealing to a selling team as adding him would give them a look to see if a new situation can help unlock some potential. If it doesn’t happen, he’s still a cost-effective player for the rest of the year.
In 2019, Colorado signed Joonas Donskoi to a four-year deal with a $3.9MM AAV, a contract that raised eyebrows given his limited track record. He isn’t a top-six player and that price tag is high for a third liner. By no means is Donskoi necessarily playing poorly but staring down new contracts for Gabriel Landeskog (UFA) and Cale Makar (RFA) among others, this is an above-market deal that will hinder them this summer. Of course, the two years remaining will make it challenging to move but knowing what’s coming, Sakic should be sufficiently motivated to find a way to move him. J.T. Compher (two years remaining, $3.5MM AAV) could fall in this particular cap-clearing category.
Greg Pateryn has already cleared waivers and been traded this season while spending more time in the AHL than the AHL. He also has a $2.25MM AAV. Normally, this wouldn’t be someone to list as a trade chip but the 30-year-old would appear to be a strong candidate to move if Colorado needs to offset some money in an acquisition. Pateryn is an unrestricted free agent so there wouldn’t be any long-term ramifications for whoever was to take him on.
Others to Watch For: Pierre-Edouard Bellemare ($1.8MM, UFA)
Team Needs
1) Backup goaltender – Pavel Francouz has yet to play this season due to a lower-body injury and there is no timeframe for his return; he’s the other player joining Johnson on LTIR. That has forced Philipp Grubauer to take on the bulk of the workload with the relatively untested Hunter Miska serving as the backup. Grubauer isn’t accustomed to playing this much and as last postseason showed, injuries can happen. A more proven NHL netminder would go a long way but even if they don’t aim that high, a player to fill the role Michael Hutchinson did last season could also be useful with their current minor league options not yet NHL ready.
2) Defensive depth – The state of Colorado’s back end isn’t the greatest right now but to be fair, they’re missing four players right now. Not many teams can comfortably withstand that but as a result, the Avalanche have been icing several minor leaguers. Considering they’re only in fourth in the division, it’s a group that can’t afford to take another hit and could stand to be bolstered.
3) Scoring help – Part of this is due to all of the injuries but the Avs somewhat surprisingly have had trouble scoring this season, sitting 21st in the league heading into play on Friday night. Mikko Rantanen is their only double-digit goal scorer and only five players have more than five. A middle-six winger with some offensive ability would help lengthen the lineup and give the top unit some extra support which would go a long way in the postseason.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Sharks’ Joachim Blichfeld Suspended Two Games
Following a dangerous hit, to one of the league’s biggest stars no less, and a match penalty, then a subsequent hearing earlier today, San Jose Sharks forward Joachim Blichfeld cannot be too surprised about the end result. The NHL Department of Player Safety has announced a two-game suspension for Blichfeld resulting from an illegal check to the head of Colorado Avalanche icon Nathan MacKinnon on Wednesday night. The league ruled as follows on the supplemental discipline handed down:
Blichfeld cuts across the front of [MacKinnon’s] body and delivers a check that makes MacKinnon’s head the main point of contact on a hit where such head contact was avoidable. This is an illegal check to the head.
While we accept Blichfeld’s assertion that he does not intentionally hit MacKinnon in the head, he takes an angle of approach that… makes the head the main point of contact rather than one that more solidly hits through the near shoulder, hips, and core.
While MacKinnon did exit the game following this hit, head coach Jared Bednar seemed optimistic after the game and expects MacKinnon will not miss any time. If MacKinnon had been seriously injured, this easily could have been a longer suspension for Blichfeld. Also helping to limit the suspension to just two games in Blichfeld’s clean record; he has no fines or suspensions in his NHL career, albeit just four games, or in his AHL career. The league also seemed to believe in his statement that the illegal check was not purposeful.
Blichfeld, who had only been recalled by the Sharks earlier in the day on Wednesday and was making his season debut, will now sit for San Jose’s next two games, a back-to-back set with the Vegas Golden Knights on Friday and Saturday. After that, the team will have to decide whether he is worth an extended look or if his suspension is grounds for a return to the AHL.
Uncertainty Surrounding Pavel Francouz Provides A Case For Colorado To Add Another Goalie
- With Pavel Francouz out long term and the Avalanche having no idea when he’ll be able to return from his lower-body injury, Mike Chambers of the Denver Post argues that Colorado needs to trade for a veteran backup. Philipp Grubauer has been excellent so far this season but while that certainly bodes well for his free agency case, the team also doesn’t want to overtax him knowing they have eyes on a long playoff run. A more experienced option to allow them to give Grubauer some more time off although with their cap situation, they’ll be forced to look for a low-priced veteran. Given how goaltending depth has been in high demand this season though, even that may be a task that’s easier said than done.
Injury Notes: Chicago, Colorado, Raymond
The Chicago Blackhawks issued a few injury updates today, including that Dylan Strome has been put in the concussion protocol. Strome, who has essentially been working as Chicago’s top center this season, is a huge loss for a team that is still very much in the thick of a playoff race. The Blackhawks are sitting third in the Central Division, though have already played 19 games—Tampa Bay and Dallas, two teams chasing them, have only had 15 and 12 respectively.
Lucas Carlsson will also miss some time and has been placed on injured reserve. The defenseman is dealing with a strained groin and is expected to miss 10-14 days. It’s not all bad news though. Connor Murphy, who hasn’t played since February 7 while dealing with a hip injury, has been activated from injured reserve. Murphy is averaging a career-high 22:45 through 13 games this season.
- Dennis Gilbert may not be a Blackhawks defenseman anymore, but he’s getting injured like one. The Colorado Avalanche blueliner will be out four to six weeks after undergoing facial surgery according to Peter Baugh of The Athletic. The injury was presumably suffered in a fight with Keegan Kolesar last week, which resulted in Gilbert’s exit after fewer than two minutes of ice time. Erik Johnson and Pavel Francouz meanwhile are both still out long-term, according to head coach Jared Bednar.
- Detroit Red Wings top prospect Lucas Raymond suffered an elbow injury while playing in Sweden and according to Ted Kulfan of the Detroit News, will have surgery that is expected to keep him out eight weeks. There is no long-term concern for Raymond, the fourth-overall pick from the 2020 draft. The young winger had 18 points in 34 games for Frolunda this season and still needs to sign his entry-level contract with the Red Wings.
Poll: NHL’s “Thanksgiving Trend” Revisited
Fans of the NHL are sure to be familiar with the deeper meaning that American Thanksgiving holds each season. With unrelenting consistency, the NHL’s standings on the final Thursday of November have had great predictive ability when compared to the final regular season standings. In fact, over the past seven years the Thanksgiving standings have been about 75% accurate at forecasting eventual playoff teams, predicting 12 of 16 spots on average. Even though American Thanksgiving only rolls around less than two months into the season, three out of four teams in a playoff spot at that time will have retained their postseason berth when the season ends.
The 2019-20 season of course did not have a standard postseason, but if it had then the Thanksgiving trend would have proved even more prophetic in a shortened campaign. Last year, in which teams were limited to between 68 and 71 games apiece prior to the early termination of the regular season, the Thanksgiving standings would have predicted 13 of 16 playoff teams in the standard format. Of the three teams that would have slid out of the postseason, the Florida Panthers trailed the Toronto Maple Leafs by .014 points percentage in the Atlantic Division and the Winnipeg Jets missed out by a measly .001 points percentage behind the Calgary Flames as the final Western Conference wild card. The Thanksgiving standings were that close to predicting 15 of 16 playoff teams in the shortened season, with the unexpected slow start for the Vegas Golden Knights and hot start for the Arizona Coyotes being the other unsurprising course correction.
But how does this trend impact a season that didn’t even begin until well after American Thanksgiving? Based on total games played by Thanksgiving over the past few seasons, Thanksgiving represents about the 30% progress through the NHL season. In the current 56-game season, that comes out to about the 17-game mark. Although postponements and rescheduling have created a wide discrepancy in games played among teams this year, the league as a whole passed that 17-game average on Saturday: Happy Thanksgiving. Admittedly, the 2020-21 campaign does have a different playoff model as well, one that is somewhat stricter than the last few years without the fallback of a wildcard spot for a team on the fifth-place fringe in their division. Yet, it is still a 16-team postseason and the Thanksgiving trend should hold. Using points percentage to rank the standings (the stat may end up determining playoff position for a second consecutive season anyhow) and adjusting for the season’s makeshift divisions, here is the current “Thanksgiving” outlook:
North Division East Division
Toronto Maple Leafs (.789) Boston Bruins (.733)
Montreal Canadiens (.625) Philadelphia Flyers (.679)
Winnipeg Jets (.618) Washington Capitals (.594)
Edmonton Oilers (.600) Pittsburgh Penguins (.594)____
Calgary Flames (.472) New Jersey Devils (.583)
Vancouver Canucks (.405) New York Islanders (.559)
Ottawa Senators (.237) New York Rangers (.469)
Buffalo Sabres (.429)
West Division Central Division
Vegas Golden Knights (.700) Carolina Hurricanes (.781)
Colorado Avalanche (.679) Florida Panthers (.750)
St. Louis Blues (.611) Tampa Bay Lightning (.700)
Minnesota Wild (.571) Dallas Stars (.583)
Los Angeles Kings (.531) Chicago Blackhawks (.579)
Arizona Coyotes (.500) Columbus Blue Jackets (.526)
San Jose Sharks (.500) Nashville Predators (.412)
Anaheim Ducks (.417) Detroit Red Wings (.325)
Now this begs the question, especially seeing how accurate the Thanksgiving standings were in last year’s shortened season but also accounting for the many disruptions for a number of teams early this season, who is the trend currently overlooking? Which teams currently outside the playoff picture, if any, do you think will make the postseason when all is said and done later this season? Use the comments section below as well to discuss which teams may fall out of the postseason and whether you feel the Thanksgiving trend will apply this season.
Which Of These Teams Will Buck The "Thanksgiving" Trend And Make The Playoffs?
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New York Islanders 23% (263)
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Chicago Blackhawks 19% (215)
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Los Angeles Kings 10% (110)
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None - "Thanksgiving" goes 16/16 9% (102)
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Columbus Blue Jackets 8% (88)
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Calgary Flames 6% (73)
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New Jersey Devils 6% (64)
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New York Rangers 4% (50)
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Arizona Coyotes 4% (42)
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Vancouver Canucks 4% (42)
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Buffalo Sabres 2% (25)
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San Jose Sharks 2% (18)
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Detroit Red Wings 1% (17)
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Nashville Predators 1% (14)
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Anaheim Ducks 1% (9)
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Ottawa Senators 1% (7)
Total votes: 1,139
Snapshots: Rescheduling, Avalanche, Wild, Thompson
In a season that has been disrupted by several COVID-19 outbreaks and historically-bad weather in Texas, the NHL schedule maker has been forced to constantly snip and edit things to fit in all 56 games. Today, the league announced that tomorrow’s game between the Chicago Blackhawks and Carolina Hurricanes will be postponed to another date, with the Hurricanes taking on Tampa Bay Saturday night instead. The Lightning and Hurricanes were already set to start a three-game series on Monday, meaning they’ll now face each other in four consecutive games. The Blackhawks-Hurricanes game? It doesn’t have a date yet.
Some more updates from around the league:
- The Colorado Avalanche have almost everyone available for tomorrow’s outdoor game at Lake Tahoe, including captain Gabriel Landeskog and defenseman Samuel Girard, who were recently on the COVID Protocol Related Absences list. That doesn’t necessarily mean Girard, who was still on the list as of yesterday, will play but he is eligible to. According to Dan Rosen of NHL.com, Cale Makar is still a game-time decision as he continues to deal with an upper-body injury.
- The Minnesota Wild also welcomed back several familiar faces to practice today, now that the team is down to just Andrew Hammond on the COVID Protocol list. Michael Russo of The Athletic reports that Dakota Mermis, Luke Johnson and Kyle Rau have all been sent to the taxi squad to make room for the returning players, though Calen Addison will currently stay on the active roster.
- Nate Thompson has been activated from injured reserve by the Winnipeg Jets and he is expected to be in the lineup tonight when the team faces off against the Vancouver Canucks. Thompson has played just four games for the Jets this season after signing a one-year, $750K deal in October. The veteran forward is expected to take the spot of Kristian Vesalainen, who is still looking for his first NHL goal.
COVID Protocol Related Absences: 02/15/21
Each day, the NHL will publicly release the list of players that are unavailable to their respective teams due to being in COVID-19 Protocol. While the league is still waiting for a report from the Edmonton Oilers, here are today’s results for the other 30 teams:
Buffalo – Dylan Cozens, Curtis Lazar, Jake McCabe, Casey Mittelstadt, Brandon Montour, Rasmus Ristolainen
Colorado – Samuel Girard, Tyson Jost, Gabriel Landeskog, Hunter Miska*
Edmonton – TBA
Los Angeles – Andreas Athanasiou
Minnesota – Jonas Brodin, Brad Hunt, Victor Rask, Carson Soucy, Cam Talbot
New Jersey – Nikita Gusev, Nico Hischier, Dmitry Kulikov, Travis Zajac
NY Rangers – Filip Chytil
Ottawa – Ryan Dzingel
Philadelphia – Justin Braun, Morgan Frost, Claude Giroux, Travis Konecny, Scott Laughton, Oskar Lindblom, Jakub Voracek
Vegas – Tomas Nosek
As a reminder, inclusion on this list does not mean that a player has tested positive for Coronavirus or even that they have been confirmed as a close contact to another positive person. Included in the NHL’s list of possible reasons for someone being on the list is are the following:
(1) an initial positive test which remains unconfirmed until confirmatory testing is completed pursuant to the Positive Test Protocol; (2) mandated isolation for symptomatic individuals pursuant to the Positive Test Protocol; (3) required quarantine as a high-risk close contact in accordance with the Positive Test Protocol; (4) isolation based on a confirmed positive test result and/or; (5) quarantine for travel or other reasons as outlined in the COVID-19 Protocol
Players removed today: John Hayden, Arizona Coyotes; Tobias Rieder, Buffalo Sabres; Nick Bonino, Ian Cole, Nico Sturm, Minnesota Wild; Nathan Bastian, New Jersey Devils
Many of today’s CPRA removals were revealed long before the list was published this afternoon. Hayden was in the lineup for Coyotes for their matinee match-up with the Blues, while Bastian joined the Devils in their return to practice this morning and Rieder did the same with the Sabres. Interestingly, McCabe and Montour were also participants in Buffalo practice today, likely indicating that they will come off the list tomorrow. New Jersey’s Gusev and Kulikov skated separately with coaches after practice today, possibly implying that they too will be off the list soon.
After being late to report yesterday, the Colorado Avalanche are responsible for the only CPRA addition today in young goaltender Miska. Otherwise, this is another positive day as the NHL’s COVID numbers continue to trend strongly in the right direction. With the difficult situations in Buffalo, Minnesota, and New Jersey looking like they will soon be resolved, some progress in Philadelphia is seemingly the only thing stopping the league moving on from their recent rash of postponements and lengthy CRPA lists.
Cale Makar Day-To-Day With Upper-Body Injury
While Colorado is back in action today for the first time in 12 days, they’re doing so without the services of their top offensive threat from the back end as Cale Makar is day-to-day with an upper-body injury. Head coach Jared Bednar told reporters, including Mike Chambers of the Denver Post, that he’s not quite sure how the injury happened. Makar participated in three practices with the Avalanche this week as they worked their way up to today’s game but Bednar allowed for the possibility that the injury occurred away from the rink as well. Makar is averaging just over a point per game this season and was on a five-game point streak before their schedule was paused and he will have to wait a little while longer to try to extend it.
COVID Protocol Related Absences: 02/14/21
Each day, the NHL will publicly release the list of players that are unavailable to their respective teams due to being in COVID-19 Protocol. The league is still awaiting updated lists from the Sabres and Avalanche, but the following are the complete results from the other 29 teams:
Arizona – John Hayden
Buffalo – Dylan Cozens, Curtis Lazar, Jake McCabe, Casey Mittelstadt, Brandon Montour, Tobias Rieder, Rasmus Ristolainen
Colorado – Samuel Girard, Tyson Jost, Gabriel Landeskog
Los Angeles – Andreas Athanasiou
Minnesota – Nick Bonino, Jonas Brodin, Ian Cole, Brad Hunt, Victor Rask, Carson Soucy, Nico Sturm, Cam Talbot
New Jersey – Nathan Bastian, Nikita Gusev, Nico Hischier, Dmitry Kulikov, Travis Zajac
NY Rangers – Filip Chytil
Ottawa – Ryan Dzingel*
Philadelphia – Justin Braun, Morgan Frost, Claude Giroux, Scott Laughton, Oskar Lindblom, Jakub Voracek, Travis Konecny*
Vegas – Tomas Nosek
As a reminder, inclusion on this list does not mean that a player has tested positive for Coronavirus or even that they have been confirmed as a close contact to another positive person. Included in the NHL’s list of possible reasons for someone being on the list is are the following:
(1) an initial positive test which remains unconfirmed until confirmatory testing is completed pursuant to the Positive Test Protocol; (2) mandated isolation for symptomatic individuals pursuant to the Positive Test Protocol; (3) required quarantine as a high-risk close contact in accordance with the Positive Test Protocol; (4) isolation based on a confirmed positive test result and/or; (5) quarantine for travel or other reasons as outlined in the COVID-19 Protocol
Players removed today: Rasmus Dahlin, Buffalo Sabres; Calvin Pickard, Detroit Red Wings; Blake Lizotte, Los Angeles Kings; Jesper Bratt, Connor Carrick, Eric Comrie, Jack Hughes, Damon Severson, Ty Smith, Matt Tennyson, Sami Vatanen, New Jersey Devils; Travis Sanheim, Philadelphia Flyers; Steven Stamkos, Tampa Bay Lightning
It’s another strong net positive day for the CPRA. The only true addition to the list comes in the form of Flyers forward Konecny. The other addition, Dzingel, has entered the required quarantine period for any player crossing into Canada after he was dealt to Ottawa by Carolina on Saturday, but by all accounts has not qualified for any other reason. Meanwhile, the Red Wings and Lightning wipe the slate clean while the Devils take a major step forward with eight players coming off the list. Joining Dahlin back at Sabres practice today was also head coach Ralph Krueger, a welcome sight after his own bout with Coronavirus.
While the situations in Buffalo and Colorado remain undetermined at this point, the Devils appear to be on the mend and Minnesota Wild head coach Dean Evason stated that he expects some of his players to begin coming off the list soon as well. If the situation in Philadelphia can be sorted out – especially with their Lake Tahoe game coming up next weekend – the NHL could be looking at a refreshingly short CPRA by this time next week.
NHL Postpones Colorado Avalanche Games Through February 11
After Gabriel Landeskog showed up on the COVID Protocol Related Absences list today, the NHL has postponed all Colorado Avalanche games through February 11. The Avalanche already had games against the Minnesota Wild postponed because of their outbreak, but now will miss games against the St. Louis Blues this weekend and Arizona Coyotes early next week.
The team’s training facilities have been closed, effective immediately, and will remain that way until further notice. The schedule continues to be reviewed.
This is a troubling outcome after the Avalanche played three games against the Wild, the second time in just a few days that there seems to have been an in-game spread. Though that can’t be confirmed obviously, the league is now facing several shutdowns across different divisions.
The chart of postponed games continues to grow.