PHR Playoff Primer: Carolina Hurricanes vs. New York Islanders
With the start of the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs just a few days away, PHR makes its first foray into playoff series analysis with our 2023 Playoff Primers. Where does each team stand in their series, and what storylines could dominate on and off the ice? We continue our look with the Metropolitan Division matchup between the Carolina Hurricanes and New York Islanders.
The opening game of the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs will feature two teams on very different paths heading into the postseason. In this rematch of a 2019 Eastern Conference Second Round series, the Hurricanes and Islanders both have something to prove.
And, like that 2019 matchup which had just four total goals through its first two games, most would expect this series to be the most defensively inclined of the first round. With the Hurricanes struggling to put pucks in the net without their two best goal-scorers, though, will they be able to break through Ilya Sorokin, the Islanders’ ace in the hole, and avoid what could be one of the biggest upsets of the postseason?
Regular Season Performance
Carolina: 52-21-9, 113 points, +53 goal differential
NY Islanders: 42-31-9, 93 points, +21 goal differential
Head-To-Head
October 28, 2022: NY Islanders 6, Carolina 2
December 10, 2022: Carolina 3, NY Islanders 0
January 21, 2023: Carolina 5, NY Islanders 2
April 2, 2023: NY Islanders 1, Carolina 2
Carolina takes the season series 3-1
Team Storylines
The question surrounding the Hurricanes is clear-cut: they’ll likely dominate the possession game in this series, but can they finish enough chances to win four out of seven games?
Goal-scoring has been the disease that’s plagued Carolina in playoffs past. In last year’s second-round elimination at the hands of the New York Rangers, Carolina only scored more than two goals in a game once, a 3-1 win in Game 5.
General manager Don Waddell made a pointed acquisition last summer to address the recurring concern by plucking Max Pacioretty away from the Vegas Golden Knights in a cap-dump move. Needless to say, it didn’t work out as planned, with back-to-back Achilles tears ending Pacioretty’s season and limiting him to just five games in a Carolina uniform.
With Andrei Svechnikov now out of the lineup, Carolina’s finishing touch has evaporated. Sebastian Aho‘s pulled his weight with 36 goals this year, and Martin Necas‘ career year has been a life-saving measure for the division champs. More will be needed out of support players like Teuvo Teravainen and Seth Jarvis, though, if Carolina wants to avoid an upset.
It’s an upset that more and more are surmising about publically, and for good reason. Sorokin has a legitimate claim to this year’s Vezina Trophy, and since the date of Svechnikov’s injury (March 11), Carolina is the only playoff team with a negative goal differential.
Despite Carolina’s weaknesses, the Islanders still have to execute well enough to win the series. Their 243 goals ranked just 23rd in the league and are the least among all playoff teams.
One key difference? The Islanders are getting healthy. Mathew Barzal is making his return to the lineup tomorrow night, settling on the wing alongside Anders Lee and Bo Horvat. The team’s top playmaking talent had been sidelined for almost two months with a lower-body injury.
With he and leading scorer Brock Nelson on two different lines, a fully healthy top six could be enough to crack an inconsistent Frederik Andersen in the crease for Carolina.
Prediction
With injuries playing a major factor in this series, this isn’t the David vs. Goliath matchup these two teams’ regular-season records suggest. The series will rely on opportunistic scoring to beat a stingy Hurricanes defense or an elite Islanders goalie, and could very easily see multiple momentum swings.
But despite Carolina’s suffocating pressure, the Islanders have a pointed history of eking things out in the postseason. With the momentum (and goaltending) on their side, expect some more playoff magic from a team that’s dealt with pressure all season long.
The prediction: Islanders win in seven games.
Hurricanes Sign Dominick Fensore
Dominick Fensore’s senior year at Boston University was certainly a strong one. He was rewarded for his efforts late on Friday when the Hurricanes announced that they’d signed the defenseman to a two-year, entry-level contract. The deal begins next season so Fensore will not be eligible to suit up for Carolina in their upcoming playoff run. GM Don Waddell released the following statement:
Domenick is a skilled, playmaking defenseman. He captained a BU team that was among the best in college hockey this season, and we’re excited for him to take the next steps in his development.
The contract pays $832.5K at the NHL in each season with a $70K minor league salary while Fensore receives a signing bonus of $185K spread out evenly over the two years, creating an AAV of $925K.
Fensore posted his second straight 31-point season in 2022-23, finishing tied for fifth on the Terriers in scoring and second among defensemen. Boston University made the Frozen Four earlier this month before falling to number-one-ranked Minnesota in the semifinals.
The 21-year-old, a third-round pick back in 2019 (90th overall) is on the smaller side at 5’7 but has clearly shown an ability to produce at the college level. He’ll now get his chance next season to see if he can become an impact point producer in the pros in the minors although, with AHL Chicago dropping Carolina as their affiliate for next season, it remains to be seen where Fensore will be eventually suiting up.
Carolina Hurricanes Sign Yaniv Perets
The Carolina Hurricanes have added some goaltending depth, announcing that they have signed goaltender Yaniv Perets to a two-year, entry-level contract. The deal, which begins next season, carries a base salary of $775K along with a signing bonus of $60K per year. GM Don Waddell released the following statement about his newest prospect:
Yaniv was a crucial part of Quinnipiac’s run to the national championship this season, and he has been an elite goaltender for his entire collegiate career. He is a proven winner, and we look forward to seeing him develop in the crease.
Perets, 23, led the Quinnipiac University Bobcats to their first NCAA men’s ice hockey championship last weekend. He was named to the NCAA East Second All-American Team and was a finalist for the Hobey Baker Award the past two seasons.
Born in Dollard-des-Ormeaux, Québec, Perets posted a .931 save percentage and 1.49 goals-against average in a career-high 41 games with the Bobcats this season, including a .948 save percentage in the four tournament games, only allowing five goals.
The Hurricanes’ interest in Perets should have come as no surprise, given the connection between the netminder and the Brind’Amour family. For three seasons at Quinnipiac, Perets was teammates with Skyler Brind’Amour, a soon-to-be free agent and the son of Hurricanes head coach Rod Brind’Amour.
Given Perets’ strong performance the past two seasons as the Bobcats’ starter, he undoubtedly received multiple offers. He gives the organization a second legitimate goalie prospect behind the 23-year-old Pyotr Kochetkov.
While an intriguing prospect, Perets’ ceiling is disputable, given his age and development path. His development path before NCAA play mirrors Buffalo Sabres star prospect Devon Levi, but Perets is over a year older and played behind a better defensive unit in Quinnipiac. Regardless, it’s a no-risk acquisition for the Hurricanes if they can make it work.
Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman first reported that the Hurricanes were the frontrunners to sign Perets.
Stefan Noesen Out Of Tonight's Game
- As the Carolina Hurricanes look to capture the Metropolitan Division title in the coming days, they will be missing a valuable depth forward tonight in Stefan Noesen. The team reports that the forward will be out with a lower-body injury. Playing in his ninth season of the NHL already, the forward has eclipsed his previous points record, scoring 35 points in 75 games for the Hurricanes so far.
[SOURCE LINK]
Chicago Wolves To Play As An Independent AHL Team
Jacob Stoller of The Hockey News is reporting that the Chicago Wolves have e-mailed agents to let them know that the club is planning to end its affiliation with the Carolina Hurricanes at the end of this season and operate as an independent organization without an NHL affiliate. They will become the first AHL independent organization since 1994-95.
In an e-mail that was obtained by The Hockey News Wolves GM Wendell Young reportedly let NHL teams know that Chicago would be open to receiving NHL players on loan. Young was also quoted in an article from The Athletic as saying this about the club’s relationship with the Hurricanes, “some organizations are development-only, but we think if we have development and win playoff games, guys learn how to win, which you’re trying to do all the time. That’s changed. It’s time to go independent and follow our own philosophy.”
Stoller tweeted today that he doesn’t see this as a surprise and that he thinks this is what Chicago has always wanted. It is hard to argue with Stoller’s thinking, given what Young had to say in the media. Stoller added that he doesn’t think any NHL team would sign an affiliation agreement with the Wolves.
The news today gives Chicago a lot of flexibility heading into next season, but it also makes Young’s job as general manager a whole lot more difficult. He will no longer have an NHL club providing players to the Wolves, which will require him to sign a lot more players to AHL contracts. The Wolves will also still be required to follow the AHL’s development roster rule which states that 13 of 18 skaters must have played 260 games or less of pro hockey.
Latest On Teuvo Teravainen
- Carolina Hurricanes star forward Teuvo Teravainen remains out of the lineup for tonight’s matchup against the Ottawa Senators, marking the fourth straight game he has missed. The 28-year-old Finn has undoubtedly had a down season by his standards (just 12 goals and 36 points in 63 games played) but with both Max Pacioretty and Andrei Svechnikov out for the season, he’ll need to get back to full health and shoulder a greater offensive workload in order for the Hurricanes to stand the best chance of making a deep playoff run.
Teuvo Teravainen To Miss Second Straight Game
- Teuvo Teravainen was ruled out of the Carolina Hurricanes game against the Montreal Canadiens tonight, per a team release. The Finnish winger is a key part of the Hurricanes attack, especially with fellow wingers Andrei Svechnikov and Max Pacioretty out for the season with injury. The team announced that Teravainen is out with an illness, so although this is his second consecutive game missed, it should not turn into a long term absence which is great news for the Hurricanes who are trying to hold off the New Jersey Devils for first place in the Metropolitan Division.
Teuvo Teravainen Out With Illness
- Carolina Hurricanes winger Teuvo Teravainen will not play tonight, the team announced via Twitter. The 28 year old is not having his typical production, as he has scored 12 goals and 36 points in 63 games. The skilled Finnish forward is often closer to a point-per-game pace and with Max Pacioretty and Andrei Svechnikov out long term, the Hurricanes need a healthy and productive Teravainen as the playoffs approach. Luckily, he is out with an illness which means he should not miss a lot of time.
Carolina Hurricanes Reassign Pyotr Kochetkov
The Carolina Hurricanes are returning to a Frederik Andersen–Antti Raanta tandem, with the latter coming back from his latest injury in the next few days. The team has reassigned Pyotr Kochetkov to the AHL today after some strong performances in recent weeks.
Kochetkov, 23, has played in 24 games for the Hurricanes this season, effectively making a three-way split of the Carolina playing time. Andersen has logged the most with 29, while veteran Raanta has appeared in 23 games. Among the three, the young Kotchetkov has the best save percentage at .909, and more complex metrics support his strong play.
That will make for some interesting decisions come playoff time, especially if Raanta struggles at all down the stretch. The 33-year-old has never been able to stay healthy for long, and has a .907 save percentage on the year. That has resulted in just two regulation losses because of how strong Carolina’s depth is at other positions, but it doesn’t lend itself to much confidence when the season is on the line.
There is still some inconsistency in Kochetkov’s game, but he showed again over the weekend that he can play at a high level. Facing 44 shots against the Toronto Maple Leafs (including a season-high 15 from Auston Matthews), the young netminder allowed just three goals to secure the win. With Andersen and Raanta both scheduled for unrestricted free agency in the summer, and Kochetkov already signed to a four-year, $8MM extension, his time is coming in Carolina.
Latest On Ville Koivunen, Tuukka Tieksola
The AHL’s Chicago Wolves brought two players in from Europe today, Hurricanes prospects Tuukka Tieksola and Ville Koivunen, according to a team announcement. Tieksola, 21, has already played 40 games for the Wolves this season, scoring 15 points. He was loaned back to Karpat in Liiga in February to help with their playoff push, but now after their elimination from Liiga’s playoffs, he’s back in North America. The 2019 fourth-rounder had five points in 11 games on his loan.
Koivunen, 19, is now put in a position to make his North American professional debut. The 2021 second-round pick has spent most of this season with Karpat and has scored a highly impressive 12 goals and 28 points in 52 games. By allowing him to get some games under his belt in Chicago, the Hurricanes organization is giving Koivunen a head start on getting the positive qualities of his game to translate to North American ice surfaces. While the Wolves have struggled immensely in their post-Calder Cup Championship season, adding two promising Finns to their lineup could spark a more energetic finish to their campaign.