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The Case For Points Percentage

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It’s not often in sports that there is a need for something as trivial as a change in how standings are listed. Yet, that is the exact situation that the NHL faces. Ever since the league changed its schedule format a few years back so that every team played in every building every year, scheduling has become increasingly difficult and teams play out their seasons far differently from one another. The result, at any given point in the season, is a wide gap in games played between teams across the league – one that has stretched as high as 8 games between the teams with the most and fewest games played.

With a points-based standings system, a games played gap greatly misrepresents the success of teams relative to one another. While anyone can look and see that a 25-5-5 team is superior to a 22-10-11, the problem is that the standings say otherwise – both teams have 55 points – and the average layperson isn’t going to calculate a metric to differentiate the two when just casually looking at the standings. In the end, all teams play 82 games, but for the ease of fans and even some media members to better analyze how teams are performing in-season, and additional metric is needed.

That metric is points percentage, which of course is the amount of points a team has accrued (two-point wins and one-point OT/shoot-out losses) out of how many possible points they could have earned with a win in each game. Similar to winning percentage, the main standings metric for the MLB and traditionally listed on NFL and NBA standings as well, points percentage is an easy way to show how teams are doing relative to a .500 mark and, more importantly, relative to each other. The only problem is that, while very easy to calculate and very useful, no one in hockey is yet using this stat in their standard standings. NHL.com should, above everyone else, at least use points percentage in their standings, especially since it is a metric they have on hand, but they don’t. Instead, users can go to team stats, where it is a searchable statistic, and refine their search by conference and division to see relevant standings. Helpful, right? ESPN, TSN, Fox Sports, and CBS Sports are among the other major sports information outlets who have yet to adopt points percentage for their NHL standings, continuing to leave fans without complete information.

The one site hockey fans should use: the old stand-by Hockey Reference. The reliable stats site lists points percentage right alongside points in its 2017-18 standings, allowing for an easy look at the true performances of teams so far this season. Do yourself a favor, and take a quick look. Points percentage is topical right now, as a perfect case study is playing out in the Atlantic Division. Yes, the season is only a quarter of the way in, but the margin in games played is already skewing the view of the league’s weakest division:

Fans of the struggling Montreal Canadiens are ecstatic to be back in a playoff spot with 27 points in 27 games and fans of the Detroit Red Wings are proud of their club for sticking around with 25 points in 26 games, good enough for fifth place in the division. What about the fourth-place Boston Bruins? Well, the Bruins have 26 points… but in 23 games. Due to the gap in games played between the B’s and the Habs and Wings, it looks like Boston is just another team in the mix. Yet, in terms of points percentage they are a ways ahead. The Bruins are currently at .565, right up there with the New York Rangers, Pittsburgh Penguins, and Washington Capitals within the Eastern Conference. The Canadiens are at .500, no better than the Atlantic’s sixth-place squad, the Ottawa Senators, and well outside playoff contention at this point. The Red Wings are at just .481, a success rate much closer to the Florida Panthers than the Bruins.

The whole outlook of the Atlantic is skewed due to the games played gap and points percentage is a clear way to show accurate standings. It is also a straightforward metric to calculate and display. So why haven’t more platforms adopted it? It’s time for the NHL and other sports media outlets to help out hockey’s spectators and format their standings to actually show how the season is going.

Cedric Paquette Handed One-Game Suspension

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A tough night in Boston continues to have repercussions for the Tampa Bay Lightning. After a 3-2 loss to the Bruins, a score that doesn’t accurately reflect the lack of effort shown by the Bolts, the physical, frustrated style the team fell into will have a lasting effect into their next game, a Saturday matinee against the San Jose Sharks. Cedric Paquette has received a one-game suspension for boarding, the NHL Department of Player Safety announced (video).

Down 2-0 early in the second period, after a dominant first period by the B’s, Paquette drove Boston defenseman Torey Krug into the boards and received a minor penalty for boarding for his efforts. Player Safety decided that wasn’t enough, and Paquette’s hearing today has resulted in a one-game ban. Paquette had ample time to pull up or change the angle of his contract on Krug, who turned his back to play the puck on the end board. Instead, Paquette came at full force and drove Krug into the boards, turning an otherwise legal check into an illegal, suspendable check.

Fortunately, Krug – one of many Bruins who has struggled with injuries this season – was not hurt on the play. Team mate Frank Vatrano was also quick to jump in and defend him. The real justice for Krug was the Bruins holding on for the win against the Atlantic’s top team, as Boston won their fifth game in the past six outings.

Injury Notes: Berglund, Parise, McQuaid

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The St. Louis Blues have officially activated Patrik Berglund from injured reserve, and intend to insert him into the lineup tonight when they play the Anaheim Ducks. Berglund has been out since June after injuring his shoulder and needing surgery. Originally slated to return at some point in December, the 29-year old center will get back into the lineup a little early.

Berglund joins what is already one of the deepest and most dangerous forward groups in the NHL, and gives them another big body down the middle that can contribute. A three-time 20-goal scorer, Berglund is coming off a 34-point season and looking to make an immediate impact. More importantly, he gives them another option in the middle where Brayden Schenn and Paul Stastny have already dominated.

Injuries Unending In Boston; Krejci, DeBrusk Join Sidelined

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Boston Bruins beat writer Joe Haggerty could not have said it better: “You can’t make this stuff up”. The unbelievable rash of injuries continues in Boston, as center David Krejci and rookie winger Jake DeBrusk have been ruled out for Wednesday night’s match-up against the Atlantic-leading Tampa Bay Lightning.

The sheer number of injuries suffered by the Bruins this season, especially among the forward corps, is hard to comprehend. 22 games into the 2017-18 campaign the only forward to have played every game are David Pastrnak and energy-liners-turned-top-nine-mainstays Riley Nash, Sean Kuraly, and Tim Schaller. While there is no word yet on the extent of DeBrusk’s injury, the young scorer has been one of the Bruins’ more dependable forwards with 12 points in 21 games, but of course he now joins the long list of casualties. Currently out of the lineup alongwith DeBrusk and Krejci, who had only just returned to action, are 2016-17 leading scorer Brad Marchand, veteran David Backes, power play catalyst Ryan Spooner, promising rookies Anders Bjork and Peter Cehlarik and, of course, defenseman Adam McQuaid as well. Spooner just recently re-injured the groin that had kept him out all but eight games on the season. In the same game, Cehlarik suffered a leg injury that should keep him out at least a month. Marchand and Bjork have been sidelined since November 13th and there has been no concrete information on when exactly either can be expected back.  Backes has made a remarkably quick recovery from major surgery to cure his diverticulitis, but he too is not quite ready to return and there are doubts about how he will play once he is back. Other Bruins forward who have missed time already this season: Patrice Bergeron (5 games), Noel Acciari (13 games), and Matt Beleskey (2 games).

The defense has done a bit better though, with captain Zdeno Chara and talented youngsters Charlie McAvoy and Brandon Carlo all suiting up for every game. Kevan Miller has missed only one game, while Torey Krug’s four-game absence seems like nothing. A platoon of Paul Postma, Rob O’Gara and Matt Grzelcyk has performed well enough in the absence of McQuaid.

In total, the Bruins have missed a whopping 100 man-games already this season, far more than any other team in the league and heavily weighted toward their forwards. That makes it all the more impressive that the team is still sitting pretty in the Atlantic Division. In terms of points percentage, the B’s are third in the Atlantic and just behind the two-time Cup-champion Pittsburgh Penguins overall. Their 60 goals for may a bottom-five number in the NHL, but what would you expect from a two-way team missing most of its offensive talent? A recent winning streak showed that the Bruins and head coach Bruce Cassidy can get it done, even with a makeshift roster. There is no sign of when Boston will get back to full strength, if ever this season, but if they do it could be dangerous for the rest of the NHL.

Injury Notes: Bruins, Rakell, Weber, Wennberg, Sutter

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The Boston Bruins injury list keeps growing as the team is dealing with injuries to Brad Marchand, Anders Bjork, Ryan Spooner and Peter Cehlarik. However, the one good piece of news is that forward David Backes, who underwent surgery to have a piece of his colon removed on Nov. 1, has already been cleared for contact in practice, according to NBC Sports Joe Haggerty.

Originally estimated to be out for eight weeks, putting the timetable to early January, Backes has already been skating with the Bruins for a week and could be returning sooner than expected.

The other news isn’t as good, according to Haggerty, who says that Marchand will miss today’s game against the Edmonton Oilers and was still sporting a non-contact sweater in practice Saturday. Bjork is expected to miss another week with an upper-body injury, while neither Spooner or Cehalrik practiced Saturday. The scribe says only Spooner has a chance to play today.

  • Eric Stephens of the Orange County Register tweets that Anaheim Ducks center Rickard Rakell, who didn’t play in Saturday’s game against the Los Angeles Kings due to an upper-body injury, won’t travel with the team starts their road trip. Stephens adds that coach Randy Carlyle was vague about when Rakell would return to the team.
  • Montreal Canadiens defenseman Shea Weber, who has missed the past three games lower-body injury, missed practice today, according to the Montreal Gazette’s Stu Cowan. Instead, the veteran defenseman opted for therapy. He remains day-to-day as Montreal hosts Columbus on Monday.
  • Cowan also reports that defenseman David Schlemko, who is on a condidtioning stint with the Laval Rocket of the AHL, was practicing with the Canadiens today, suggesting a return could be near.
  • Columbus Blue Jackets center Alexander Wennberg, who has been out with an upper-body injury since Nov. 11, participated in practice fully today and is expected to travel with the team for Monday’s game against the Montreal Canadiens, according to The Athletic’s Aaron Portzline.
  • Vancouver Canucks center Brandon Sutter, who is expected to miss today’s game against the New York Rangers, is more than just “day-to-day,” according to Canucks head coach Travis Green. The coach adds that it’s nothing too serious, but in his place Alexander Burmistrov will fill in for him while he is out.
  • Dallas Morning News’ Mike Heika reports that defenseman Stephen Johns, who was suffered an upper-body injury in Friday’s game against the Calgary Flames, skated today and is expected to be ready for Tuesday’s game against the Vegas Golden Knights.

DeBrusk Starting To Figure Things Out

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  • Joe Haggerty of NBC Sports writes that Boston Bruins’ rookie Jake Debrusk has started to look more comfortable out on the ice after head coach Bruce Cassidy made him a healthy scratch a week ago. In four games since, the 21-year-old winger has two goals and five points and was instrumental with a pair of assists in their 4-3 victory over the Pittsburgh Penguins on Friday. “It goes back to the mentality of playing fast,” said Debrusk. “I think that was one of the focuses. And ever since I got scratched, I think that I’ve had some jump in all the games or at moments.”

Backes Takes Contact In Practice; Marchand Ruled Out For Sunday

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  • Brad Marchand’s return to Boston’s lineup won’t happen this weekend. The team announced (Twitter link) that they have ruled him out of the lineup for Sunday’s game against Edmonton.  They’re now targeting Wednesday against Tampa Bay for his first game back.  The Bruins also revealed in a separate tweet that forward David Backes took some contact in practice for the first time since undergoing surgery to remove part of his colon at the beginning of the month.  The original recovery time was expected to be eight weeks so it appears he’s ahead of schedule.

Bruins Recall Szwarz On Emergency Basis, Assign O'Gara To Providence

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  • The Bruins announced that they have recalled winger Jordan Szwarz on an emergency basis and have returned defenseman Rob O’Gara to AHL Providence. Szwarz rejoins Boston after being sent down back on Wednesday.  He has played time times with the big club in 2017-18, collecting three assists but has been quite productive in Providence, picking up eight points in only six games.  Meanwhile, O’Gara has split the season between the NHL and AHL so far.  In eight appearances with Boston, he has been held off the scoresheet while logging 10:59 per night and has collected two assists in seven minor league contests.

Is It Time For Boston To Look For Another Starter?

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Bruins goaltender Tuukka Rask is off to a particularly rough start this season.  He has posted a 2.89 GAA and a .897 SV% through a dozen starts and, at least for the time being, has been passed by Anton Khudobin on the depth chart who makes his third straight start tonight.  Joe Haggerty of NBC Sports Boston posits that the slow start on top of the last two seasons being below Rask’s usual standard is a sign that he should no longer be considered their goalie of the long-term future.

However, they have Khudobin and Zane McIntyre behind him and neither figure to be the solution either.  Rask is signed through 2020-21 with a $7MM cap hit which could make him difficult to trade if he can’t get back to form in the coming weeks unless they want to take a similarly-priced underachieving netminder in return.  Accordingly, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Bruins target a young goalie either through the draft or via trade to start to position themselves for the post-Rask era, whenever that day happens to come.

Minor Transactions: 11/21/17

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With just three games slated for today, but 15 scheduled for Wednesday, many teams may be looking to shore up their rosters for the next few days. Keep a lookout daily at updates on what teams are up to today:

  • The Boston Bruins announced they have recalled defenseman Matthew Grzelcyk from Providence and is expected to practice with the team today and travel with the team to New Jersey for tomorrow’s matchup with the Devils. Grzelcyk made the team out of training camp and played in one game, but was sent to Providence on Oct. 9. The diminutive defenseman has put up four assists in 14 games with 14 penalty minutes and a +4 plus/minus rating. His recall would suggest that Torey Krug will not be returning just yet after meeting with doctors yesterday, according to NBC Sports Joe Haggerty.
  • According to the AHL transaction page, Michael Leighton has been loaned to the Chicago Wolves. Leighton was recently traded by the Tampa Bay Lightning to the Arizona Coyotes, but didn’t have a spot at their affiliate Tucson. Instead, Leighton—who had been playing in the minor leagues already with Syracuse prior to the trade—will be the latest netminder in Chicago. The Wolves, who are affiliated with the Vegas Golden Knights but also house some St. Louis Blues prospects, have already had four goaltenders suit up for them this season (including Kasimir Kaskisuo, who actually belongs to the Toronto Maple Leafs—it gets confusing).
  • The Minnesota Wild have reassigned both Luke Kunin and Joel Eriksson Ek, calling up Zack Mitchell to replace them. Kunin and Eriksson Ek are both part of the next wave of Wild talent, but haven’t gotten off to quite the start they’d hoped for. The pair has combined for just seven points in 37 games, and would be better off playing big minutes in the AHL. With Charlie Coyle coming off injured reserve, there will be even less opportunity for the pair with the NHL club. Minnesota is right up against the cap and banks as much cap space as they can by riding just 21 players on off days, but Michael Russo of The Athletic doesn’t believe that’s the case this time.

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