Poll: Who Will Win The Atlantic Division?
We’re just over a month away from the 2018-19 NHL season, and players are hitting the ice with teammates to start forming chemistry. All over the league there are individual workouts underway, and rookie tournament rosters being announced. The excitement for the upcoming season is starting to bubble up to the surface, and even the smallest NHL news has fans in a frenzy.
Today, Bovada released their over/under numbers for each team’s point totals and there are some interesting results. Though these aren’t to be taken exactly as predictions for the upcoming season—since betting odds also take into account popularity trends and other factors—fans of the Tampa Bay Lightning should still be extremely satisfied to see their club at the very top with an over/under of 107.5 points. The Lightning are expected to be Stanley Cup contenders once again in 2018-19, and have brought back nearly their entire roster.
The odds though tell a story of competition for the Lightning, as the Toronto Maple Leafs and Boston Bruins also find themselves with 100+ point expectations. All three clubs reside in the Atlantic Division and will have to battle each other for the right to go to the Stanley Cup Finals. Not to be forgotten in the Atlantic are the Florida Panthers, who are expected to contend for the playoffs and the Buffalo Sabres who should be much improved.
Who do you think will come out on top of the Atlantic Division in the regular season? Can Toronto take that next step and topple their rivals in Boston? Will Aleksander Barkov and the Panthers take a big leap and contend for the Stanley Cup? Can Rasmus Dahlin turn around a Buffalo blue line? Cast your vote below and explain how you think the season will play out in the comments!
Who will win the Atlantic Division?
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Tampa Bay Lightning 37% (637)
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Toronto Maple Leafs 25% (432)
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Detroit Red Wings 15% (254)
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Boston Bruins 13% (232)
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Buffalo Sabres 4% (76)
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Montreal Canadiens 3% (44)
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Florida Panthers 2% (37)
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Ottawa Senators 2% (31)
Total votes: 1,743
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Blue Jackets Notes: Panarin, Bobrovsky, Nash
Even in a relatively quiet summer for the Blue Jackets, in which the team has only added Riley Nash as a bona fide piece of their roster and taken fliers on Anthony Duclair, Adam Clendening, and Ryan MacInnis, Columbus has nevertheless been one of the more talked-about teams this off-season. With two of the biggest potential 2019 free agents currently employed as well as the most prominent remaining 2018 free agent possibly considering a comeback, the Blue Jackets could still make headlines before the season begins. The Athletic’s Aaron Portzline addresses these issues and more in his latest article:
- Portzline writes that there is no traction on extensions for either Artemi Panarin or Sergei Bobrovsky as they enter the final year of their respective contracts. The duo will almost certainly enter the season without a new deal, as has been expected for Panarin, and where things go from there remains unclear. It has already been noted that the team is not actively in talks with Bobrovsky, and that could partly be due to Portzline’s assertion that he is looking for “Carey Price money”; the Canadiens’ star goaltender signed an eight-year, $84MM extension last summer. However, given the almost immediate regret felt by Montreal over that contract, the Blue Jackets may be content to ride the season out with Bobrovsky and see whether his performance and health dictate similar terms. Although Bobrovsky is an elite goaltender, he would share next summer’s market with Pekka Rinne, Mike Smith, Semyon Varlamov, Cam Talbot, Jimmy Howard, and more and may land his biggest payday if he sticks with Columbus.
- Meanwhile, Portzline also adds that the likelihood of a Panarin trade prior to the season is as equally unlikely as an extension. Despite talks all off-season long, it seems like no offers got past what he describes as the “futures” stage, while the contender-quality Blue Jackets would prefer immediate help in any Paranin deal. A trade could still happen at some point during the season, and even seems likely, but it won’t be anytime soon. Panarin has not even supplied GM Jarmo Kekalainen with his list of preferred destinations yet. Although, Portzline suggests the New York Rangers, New York Islanders, and Florida Panthers could top that hypothetical list, while Panarin was previously linked to the Boston Bruins and Chicago Blackhawks.
- Portzline also writes that the team has stayed in contact with Rick Nash throughout this off-season and even made an offer soon after the market opened. They have also had face-to-face meetings with the former Blue Jackets superstar about returning to Columbus. While Nash asked teams for space this summer as he decides on his playing future, being careful to consider his mounting injuries, if he does choose to keep playing it would be for a legitimate Stanley Cup contender. The Blue Jackets and Boston Bruins continue to be the most likely destinations.
Zdeno Chara May Play Past 2018-19
Among the oldest active players in the NHL is Boston Bruins defenseman Zdeno Chara, who will turn 42 next March and is on just a one-year contract for 2018-19. While many have pointed to his dwindling point totals in recent years as a signal that Chara’s game is declining, many in Boston will tell you that there is still quite a bit of hockey left in the Bruins captain. Head coach Bruce Cassidy is one of those who thinks there may be more to Chara than just this season, and he told WEEI radio that directly:
[Chara]’s got a lot of hockey left in him. I know that for a fact. He trains harder than anyone I know, his conditioning is through the roof. He’s trying to stay current with the game and the way it is played, working on his puck skills and getting back on pucks. Those little things that maybe the average person doesn’t see every night, that he’s working on maybe three or four games after we lost out [of the playoffs]. He wants to have his legacy run a lot longer than just one more year, and I wouldn’t put it past him to play four or five more years in this league.
Chara is projected to come into the season only behind Matt Cullen of the Pittsburgh Penguins in age, but still logged nearly 23 minutes a night for the Bruins in 2017-18. The ageless defenseman even received Norris Trophy votes, something he hadn’t done since finishing as the runner-up in 2013-14. That’s because of his incredible penalty killing ability and support for the new wave of Bruins defensemen led by Charlie McAvoy. Chara no longer gets the powerplay opportunities for Boston, but kills almost four minutes of short-handed time every night and is still extremely tough to play against in his own end.
With over 1,400 games played already, another four or five seasons would certainly be an incredible accomplishment. Chris Chelios currently ranks first all-time in games played by a defenseman with 1,651, a number that Chara could potentially eclipse in just three seasons. If he can continue to play at such a high level—and his infamous fitness and health regime gives him a good chance at that—there’s no reason to think he couldn’t take over the all-time lead. The Bruins will have to decide whether that will be in Boston though, as the team will have lots of contracts to worry about in the near future. McAvoy is a restricted free agent for the first time next season, as are Danton Heinen, Ryan Donato and Brandon Carlo. There’s little chance that Chara would test free agency if Boston wanted him back though, especially if he’s still making a positive impact on the ice.
Bruins Expect Bergeron, Krug, And Carlo To Be Ready For Camp
By the time the Boston Bruins exited the postseason in early May after a Game Five loss to the Tampa Bay Lightning in the Eastern Conference semifinals, they were in rough shape. Defensemen Brandon Carlo and Torey Krug had both already been lost to broken ankles, David Backes, Riley Nash, and Rick Nash were all dealing with concussion symptoms, Zdeno Chara and Jake DeBrusk had both been playing through shoulder injuries, and Brad Marchand and Noel Acciari were working with groin issues. Soon after, it was revealed that Patrice Bergeron had been dealing with a recurring groin injury all year. This did not come as much of a surprise, considering that Bergeron has missed the beginning of each of the past two seasons due to groin ailments. However, Bergeron finally decided to go under the knife and his early June surgery date and subsequent recovery put his health at the start of the 2018-19 season in some doubt. Between Bergeron and barrage of other Bruins injuries, it seemed like a long shot that the team would begin the new campaign at full health.
Head coach Bruce Cassidy says not to fear, as he expects his team to be ready to go not only be ready for the season opener, but also the start of training camp. Cassidy recently spoke with Matt Porter of the Boston Globe and reassured fans that everyone is doing well in their recoveries and on track to start the year at full strength. Gone are both Riley and Rick Nash, but the numerous other injured Bruins are in good shape. Porter writes that DeBrusk, Acciari, and Backes are fully recovered from their issues and doesn’t even make note of Chara and Marchand, as the two superstars appear to be more than ready for the season. Cassidy even went so far as to say that Carlo and Krug would definitely be ready for camp. Despite each suffering a severe injury, a broken ankle, Cassidy states that they are already back skating and working towards game readiness.
Cassidy went a little further in depth with Bergeron, who he certainly would like to avoid having miss any time to begin the season for a third straight year. Cassidy says that Bergeron’s recovery is going well and he at least expects him “in uniform” if not participating fully when training camp starts. Cassidy did cast some doubt over Bergeron’s preseason usage. Especially given that team opens their tuneup schedule ahead of the rest of the league with a two-game series with the Calgary Flames, there’s little reason to rush the two-way ace into action. Cassidy expects that Bergeron will miss some preseason action but trusts that the veteran will “play [as much] as he needs”. Regardless of the preaseason workload, Cassidy expects Bergeron – and the rest of the team – to be ready to go when they square off with the defending champion Washington Capitals in the season opener on October 3rd.
Minor Transactions: 08/20/18
The hockey world chugs along as we wait for preseason games to start in a few weeks. We’ll keep track of the minor moves right here:
- Joseph LaBate has signed an AHL contract with the Belleville Senators, leaving the Vancouver Canucks organization after three years. LaBate was eligible for Group VI unrestricted free agency this summer after failing to crack the Canucks lineup for more than 13 games, and will now try his hand with the AHL affiliate of the Ottawa Senators. The 6’5″ winger is a tough player to line up against, and will give the Senators a little more size for the 2017-18 season.
- Brett Murray has left Penn State University to return to junior hockey according to Patrick Burns of the Daily Collegian. Murray, a Buffalo Sabres fourth-round draft pick, has experience in the USHL but could also go to the OHL where the Oshawa Generals still hold his rights. The big winger scored just six points in 21 games for Penn State last season, but will take his talents back to the junior ranks where he had found more success in the past.
- Colton Hargrove, a Boston Bruins draft pick, has signed an AHL contract with the Texas Stars for 2018-19. In three seasons with the Providence Bruins Hargrove registered 87 total points, including a solid season in 2017-18 with 33 in just 52 games. The 26-year old became an unrestricted free agent in 2017 when the Bruins decided not to extend him a qualifying offer.
Anders Bjork's Recovery From Shoulder Surgery Is Ahead Of Schedule
- Bruins winger Anders Bjork is ahead of schedule in his recovery from shoulder surgery, notes Kevin Paul Dupont of the Boston Globe. While he wasn’t expected to be fully recovered until the end of the month, Bjork has been training with full range of motion for the last several weeks and will be suiting up in Boston’s entry in a rookie tournament early next month. With Rick Nash not re-signing with the team, there once again is an opening in the top-six up front and Bjork is expected to be among those battling for that spot in training camp.
Poll: Early Hart Trophy Favorite?
It may be the slowest stretch of the off-season, but the odds-makers at Bovada are staying busy. As Sports Illustrated’s Michael Blinn writes, the first odds for the NHL’s MVP Award, the Hart Trophy, for the 2018-19 season are out. Very few could have predicted that the New Jersey Devils’ Taylor Hall would have taken home the title this past season at this point last year. Is next year’s winner even on the board? Or will it be one of the heavy favorites?
To no surprise, Edmonton Oilers phenom Connor McDavid has the best odds to win the Hart for the second time in three years after being crowned in 2017. McDavid has 10/3 odds to win the award and those are actually pretty fair odds. Even last season, when McDavid was not even a finalist for the Hart, he nevertheless was the league’s leading scorer with 108 points, six more than the next-best player. It was the second season in a row that McDavid won the scoring title and that trend seems unlikely to change if he remains healthy. However, there are some who will say that McDavid’s Hart chances are tied to the success of the Oilers. The argument this past season was that he could not truly be the most valuable player in the league when his contributions still left Edmonton far from a playoff spot. With a roster that has been largely unimproved this off-season, another regular season disappointment for the Oilers could make it hard for McDavid to get back on top.
Next up is two-time Hart winner Sidney Crosby at 13/5. The face of the Pittsburgh Penguins dynasty has long been considered the best player on the planet. Yet, one would think that Crosby might actually have more than two MVP titles. Crosby has scored between 84 and 120 points in every healthy season of his career, but his impressive supporting cast detracts from the impact of those unbelievable numbers. Especially last season, when Crosby was narrowly outscored by both Evgeni Malkin and Phil Kessel, it would have been close to impossible for him to win the Hart. Malkin (18/1 odds) and Kessel (75/1 odds) are still Penguins and barring injuries to one or both, Crosby would have to take his game to an even higher level to get back into Hart consideration.
Maple Leafs centers John Tavares and Auston Matthews both have 10/1 odds to win the Hart, as the odds-makers clearly expect there to be plenty of offense to go around in Toronto next season. Injuries held Matthews to 63 points last season, outside the top 50 in scoring, while a healthy Tavares only managed to tie for sixteenth with 84 points for the New York Islanders. Both players will greatly need to improve their production to be Hart – and it is certainly possible now that they are playing together – yet an improvement by both could land them in Crosby/Malkin territory where they cancel each other out in the Hart race.
Reigning Stanley Cup, Conn Smythe, and Maurice Richard winner Alex Ovechkin also has 10/1 odds to take home the Hart. Ovechkin has done it three times before, more than any other active player in the league. However, Ovechkin’s 49 goals last year only came with 38 assists, as his 87 points kept him outside the top ten in scoring. At 33 years old this season, the Washington Capitals captain will have to fight both the aging process and a potential Cup hangover to improve his production if he wants a fourth Hart. Ovechkin’s 10/1 odds seem like a stretch.
At 15/1 are both the 2018 winner Hall and finalist Nathan MacKinnon, as well as Nikita Kucherov and Mark Scheifele. This is where the value lies in these early odds. The former duo greatly benefited from both excellent seasons – 97 points for MacKinnon and 93 points for Hall – but also being far and away the best players on the New Jersey Devils and Colorado Avalanche respectively. Both should again lead the way for their clubs and if they match their previous output and again sneak into the postseason, it would be no surprise to see them both back in consideration next year. As for Kucherov, he was the favorite to win the Hart for a long stretch last season as he led the league in scoring. Although his production tailed off as the season closed out, the dynamic Tampa Bay Lightning winger still managed to finish third with 100 points. Tampa will be top contenders again and promise to light up the score board with Kucherov leading the way. Perhaps this time he can seal the deal on the Hart. Scheifele is a dark horse candidate who could be the breakout star of the coming season like Hall and MacKinnon last year. The Winnipeg Jets franchise center played in only 60 games last year, but scored 60 points and continues to show flashes of brilliance. He could be a savvy pick to take home the hardware.
Among the rest of the field are some very interesting options. Los Angeles Kings star Anze Kopitar, a Hart finalist last season, has 18/1 odds and new weapon to play with in Ilya Kovalchuk (50/1 odds). Philadelphia Flyers captain Claude Giroux has 25/1 odds despite finishing second only to McDavid at the top of the scoring charts last season with 102 points. Boston Bruins winger Brad Marchand, also 25/1 odds, was arguably the most dangerous scorer in the league last season when on the ice, finishing 13th overall in scoring with 85 points in just 68 games – the only player in the top 50 to play in less than 70 games. Bargain odds belong to Artemi Panarin at 50/1. The Columbus Blue Jackets dynamo gets better each year since coming over to the NHL and could toy with 100 points in his second year with the team. That would make for an interesting off-season, as Panarin is slated for free agency next summer.
What do you think? Does Bovada have the right names at the top? Or will the Hart winner be another unpredictable upset like Hall?
Who Is The Early Favorite To Win The 2019 Hart Trophy?
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Connor McDavid 32% (273)
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Sidney Crosby 12% (102)
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The Field - comment below 11% (96)
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Nathan MacKinnon 11% (94)
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Nikita Kucherov 8% (64)
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John Tavares 7% (58)
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Taylor Hall 5% (43)
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Mark Scheifele 5% (43)
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Auston Matthews 5% (40)
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Alex Ovechkin 4% (31)
Total votes: 844
Influx Of Foreign Talent A Trend In 2018 Off-Season
While the NHL free agent market remains flush with talented veteran players, some now beginning to depart for Europe without any leads around the league, NHL teams have quietly imported a fair amount of foreign talent this off-season. While few of these players are stars or even surefire regulars at the NHL level, the fact remains that those on two-way deals slated for depth roles are nevertheless taking those jobs from the current remnants of the market, who at this point would gladly take an AHL assignment with upside. Teams clearly have felt this off-season that taking a chance on a promising foreign player was a better use of a contract than recycling aging domestic veterans. A total of 36 players who played in Europe last season are now headed to North America, where they will suit up for 24 different organizations – showing the popularity of importing talent this off-season. Here are the foreign free agent signings this summer:
D Ilya Lyubushkin (Arizona Coyotes)
F David Ullstrom (Arizona Coyotes)
F Martin Bakos (Boston Bruins)
D Lawrence Pilut (Buffalo Sabres)
F Yasin Ehliz (Calgary Flames)
D Marcus Hogstrom (Calgary Flames)
F Saku Maenalanen (Carolina Hurricanes)
F Dominik Kahun (Chicago Blackhawks)
G Kevin Lankinen (Chicago Blackhawks)
F Jacob Nilsson (Chicago Blackhawks)
G Pavel Francouz (Colorado Avalanche)
F Valeri Nichushkin (Dallas Stars)*
G Patrik Rybar (Detroit Red Wings)
G Mikko Koskinen (Edmonton Oilers)
D Joel Persson (Edmonton Oilers)
D Bogdan Kiselevich (Florida Panthers)
F Ilya Kovalchuk (Los Angeles Kings)
D Eric Martinsson (Minnesota Wild)
D Michal Moravcik (Montreal Canadiens)
D David Sklenicka (Montreal Canadiens)
F Carl Persson (Nashville Predators)
D Filip Pyrochta (Nashville Predators)
G Miroslav Svoboda (Nashville Predators)
D Egor Yakovlev (New Jersey Devils)
F Jan Kovar (New York Islanders)
D Yannick Rathgeb (New York Islanders)
F Michael Lindqvist (New York Rangers)
F Ville Meskanen (New York Rangers)
D Juuso Riikola (Pittsburgh Penguins)
F Lukas Radil (San Jose Sharks)
F Antti Suomela (San Jose Sharks)
F Par Lindholm (Toronto Maple Leafs)
D Igor Ozhiganov (Toronto Maple Leafs)
F Brooks Macek (Vegas Golden Knights)
F Juuso Ikonen (Washington Capitals)
F Maximilian Kammerer (Washington Capitals)
F Dennis Everberg (Winnipeg Jets)
While the obvious highlight of this list is the return of Kovalchuk, inking a substantial deal with the L.A. Kings, the rest are far more than just AHL placeholders. Nichushkin, albeit not a true free agent signing since his rights never left the Stars, is back in Dallas and looking to make an impact. Koskinen is set to be the primary backup to Cam Talbot in Edmonton and, while his role was muddied somewhat by the acquisition of Philipp Grubauer, Francouz is sure to see some action in net with Colorado. Kovar was brought in to be a starter in New York, while Ullstrom – a former Islander – will push for a roster spot with Arizona. After a couple of years abroad, Everberg is back in the league and hoping to find a role in Winnipeg. If Simon Despres, on a PTO with the Montreal Canadiens, earns a contract, he could make a difference as well.
Several more of these players could wind up winning spots in training camp battles, while even more will earn call-ups throughout the year. It is an extensive list and each and every name bears watching as they begin or continue their North American pro careers. Both the risk and upside of bringing over fresh, foreign talent versus sticking with experienced yet stagnant veterans is apparent. For some teams these gambles will fail, while others may find a diamond in the rough.
Retained Salary For 2018-19
Among the ways teams can increase the value of potential trade candidates is by retaining a portion of their salary. These moves are often used on star players who may have declined slightly and are no longer deemed worthy of their big cap hits, or at the deadline in order to fit in as many contracts as possible for the playoff stretch. Any team can retain up to 50% of a player’s salary for the remainder of the contract, though a single player can only be involved in two of these transactions per contract.
Teams meanwhile are limited to three retained salary transactions on the books at any one time, and they cannot in aggregate equal more than 15% of the cap ceiling. That means, for this season a team can retain up to $11,925,000 in salary given the $79.5MM cap ceiling. Some teams have already started in on that number given the previous retained salary transactions that they are still paying off. Below is a list of all the active contracts involved in transactions like this:
Arizona Coyotes
Mike Smith – Retained $1,416,667 per season through 2018-19
Boston Bruins
Matt Beleskey – Retained $1,900,000 per season through 2019-20
Carolina Hurricanes
Marcus Kruger – Retained $308,333 per season through 2018-19
Florida Panthers
Jason Demers – Retained $562,500 per season through 2020-21
Ottawa Senators
Dion Phaneuf – Retained $1,750,000 per season through 2020-21
Toronto Maple Leafs
Phil Kessel – Retained $1,200,000 per season through 2021-22
Vancouver Canucks
Roberto Luongo – Retained $800,000 per season through 2021-22
Vegas Golden Knights
Derick Brassard – Retained $2,000,000 per season through 2018-19
While these transactions are hardly crippling the above teams, they are something to remember when the trade deadline rolls around and clubs are trying to swap contracts. Teams like Toronto and Vancouver who have retained salary for another four years might not want to get into a similar situation and lock up two of their three possible options for the future.
The other question surrounding retained salary transactions will be how they affect the upcoming CBA negotiations, after teams like Vegas have acted as a sort of middle man. Brassard was never really part of the Golden Knights, only coming there on his way from Ottawa to Pittsburgh in order to reduce his salary for the Penguins. Though Vegas received compensation, it is not how the rule was intended to be used.
Oilers Had Interest In Torey Krug Last Season
With Andrej Sekera once again out long-term following surgery to repair a torn Achilles tendon, Joe Haggerty of NBC Sports Boston notes that the Oilers showed interest in Bruins blueliner Torey Krug last season and wonders if the injury could help re-spark the talks. Boston doesn’t necessarily want to move Krug but given their depth on the back end, it could make sense for them to use him as a trade chip to get some top-six help up front.