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Free Agent Profile: Mikael Granlund

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There are just two free agents left unsigned among the top ten of PHR’s Top 50 UFA’s. One of them, Mike Hoffman, has been a fixture on the rumor mill since the market opened, with as much discussion and speculation as anyone. The other is Mikael Granlund and things have been stunningly quiet surrounding the two-time 60+ point player.

Granlund, 28, is relatively young for a traditional UFA and has over 500 NHL games to his credit, recording over 100 career goals and over 350 career points. He is a proven asset on the power play and penalty kill, an efficient shooter, a strong possession player, and can play major minutes. Granlund may not be a household name, but he has been everything one would expect from a first-round draft pick. So why the apparent lack of interest?

It seems potential NHL suitors may be focused more on Granlund’s recent play rather than looking at the big picture. The versatile forward was traded by the Minnesota Wild to the Nashville Predators at the trade deadline in 2019. Since that time, his scoring rate dropped from .69 to .44 points per game. That is quite the decline and not what any impending free agent wants to see, but should it really be the death knell for Granlund’s prospects on the open market? In less than a season and a half in Nashville, Granlund played for two different head coaches with the Predators. He did not fit the system of former bench boss Peter Laviolette, who held the job through the end of 2018-19 and into early January of this past season. During that time, Granlund’s usage was severely limited compared to his time in Minnesota, both in overall ice time and special teams role. During that time his scoring suffered and he simply did not look like the same player. Once John Hynes took over, Granlund’s play recovered in a big way. He saw an uptick in ice time, began shooting more often and scoring more as a result, and finally won back a consistent power play role. Granlund even tied a career best in possession with a 52.4 Corsi For %.

Granlund’s play in the latter half of this past season more closely resembles his time with the Wild. A reliable top-six forward, Granlund was a pivotal player for Minnesota for over five years after taking on a full-time role at just 21. He topped 20 goals twice and 50 points three times, never finishing with less than 39 points. He also proved himself to be a durable player, missing only nine total games over his final four seasons with the team while skating over 18 minutes per game each year. He also adapted to a move from center to wing without missing a beat and still proved to be a capable pivot when needed.

In the right system, Granlund can still be the player he was in Minnesota and showed flashes of down the stretch this past year, rather than the one who struggled after moving to Nashville. That is why the lack of interest – at least based on close to nothing coming out the rumor mill – remains such a mystery.

Potential Suitors

Unfortunately for Granlund, one of the teams that could most use a player of his ability and has the cap space to sign him is none other than the Nashville Predators. Although Granlund did perform better once Hynes took over, it seems unlikely that he would be open to a return after his experience with the club was sour overall.

The Boston Bruins are also known to be looking for a forward. Granlund would have the opportunity to play with former Minnesota teammate Charlie Coyle and former Nashville teammate Craig Smith on a line that could have instant chemistry. However, the Bruins are lacking in cap space with Jake DeBrusk also in need of a new deal, so one of those two players would need to take a significant discount.

Perhaps the best fit is with the Columbus Blue Jackets. Columbus moved out considerable salary in hopes of landing at least one big time free agent forward, but so far have merely swapped Josh Anderson for Max Domi and signed aging Mikko Koivu, another former Granlund teammate. The team needs to make another splash and inject some more skill into their forward corps and Granlund makes a lot of sense.

By all accounts, the Predators, Bruins, and Blue Jackets are the finalists to sign the aforementioned Hoffman, who PHR has ranked ahead of Granlund among available UFA’s. At least one of these teams seems likely to turn to Granlund when they miss out on Hoffman, which may explain the lack of noise surrounding Granlund while the Hoffman sweepstakes continues.

If it is not one of these three, a rebuilding club like the Ottawa Senators, Detroit Red Wings, Los Angeles Kings or New Jersey Devils makes sense on a one-year “show me” deal. Don’t rule out a return to Minnesota, where Granlund found immense success, but only if the Wild can open up some space.

Projected Contract

PHR initially projected Granlund to land a four-year $20MM deal in free agency and even that $5MM AAV seemed low for a player nearly guaranteed to put up 50+ points for many years still to come. However, the flat cap has had an even bigger impact than anyone imagined on free agent deals and the odds of Granlund getting that term and value seems slim. This rings especially true after Tyler Toffoli and Evgenii Dadonov, both ranked ahead of Granlund, signed such measly deals recently. Based on those two contracts, Granlund is likely looking at an AAV closer to $4MM on a short-term deal.

While Granlund’s slip in production in 2019-20 landed him behind Dadonov and Toffoli in our rankings, he has a more proven history of NHL success than either one and would stand a better chance of making the most of a one-year deal and cashing in as a free agent again next summer. Especially given the forthcoming Expansions Draft next summer, a one-year deal has added value for interested teams. Whether he ultimately signs with a playoff hopeful or a rebuild, a one-year, $4MM contract sounds about right for Granlund at this point – and stands to be an incredible bargain for whoever signs it.

Calgary Flames Sign Josh Leivo

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Calgary is certainly stoking the flames of rivalry with the Vancouver Canucks this off-season. The Canucks reiterated all season long that re-signing starting goaltender Jacob Markstrom and defensive mainstay Chris Tanev were two of their biggest priorities this off-season. Instead, both players signed with none other than the division rival Flames. Now you can add another name to that list. After it was reported on Thursday that Vancouver was still actively pursuing a new contract with forward Josh Leivo, the Flames have come out today and signed him, as first reported by Nick Kypreos of Line Movement. It is a one-year, $875K deal, as confirmed by the team’s press release.

Leivo, 27, has not played since before Christmas after suffering a fractured kneecap in December. Had he not been sidelined by that injury, Leivo likely would have had a career year and would have had much more free agent attention resulting in a larger contract, rather than settling for a one-year deal and salary decrease. In 36 games to open the season, the skilled winger recorded 19 points. This put him just five points back of his career best but in 40 fewer games. A player who usually opted for shots over passes still managed to showcase some newfound playmaking ability, setting a career high with 12 assists prior to his injury. The Canucks suited up for 69 games before the NHL was put on pause. Had Leivo been healthy through the whole season, he would have finished with 36 points on the year. This would have placed him sixth among free agent forwards in points.

The Flames hope that this move is more than just a shot at the Canucks. If Leivo can return to the level of play he displayed prior to his injury, they could be paying less than $1MM for a player with 40-point upside. However, even if Leivo’s recovery is not complete by the time the season begins or if he doesn’t quite work his way back to full strength this season, Calgary is still getting a talented bottom-six forward who can chip in on offense. It’s hard to see this contract being anything less than a worthwhile gamble for a team who needed to add another offensive asset to their forward corps.

NHL Facing Major Challenges In Planning 2020-21 Season

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The 2020 Stanley Cup Playoffs, the “bubble playoffs”, were nothing short of an immense success for the NHL. The venture may have cost the league upwards of $90MM to put on and there were a few complaints after the fact about living conditions and scheduling, but the postseason was an incredible accomplishment for the league and players’ association. In the midst of a global pandemic, the NHL hosted 24 teams in two cities over two months, fielded a workable playoff structure and competitive match-ups that yielded a fair champion, all while receiving zero positive COVID-19 results out of more than 33,000 tests. It was as close to perfect execution as anyone could have expected.

Yet, the issues faced in planning the postseason are exponentially more difficult to tackle in mapping out how the 2020-21 regular season may proceed. As Deputy Commissioner Bill Daly tells The Athletic’s Michael Russo, “it’s going to be a challenge”:

It’s a totally different challenge and requires a whole bunch of different considerations that I think probably, in some respects, are more challenging than the (postseason) return to play plans. You need to gather as much information as you can, you need to take as much time as you can, and you need to make the best decisions you can… We’re in a situation where things are evolving every day. You’re monitoring the evolution of the virus and the searches for answers on the virus. You’re monitoring travel restrictions and how we can move clubs around, if we can move clubs around. And we’re monitoring local restrictions with respect to spectators and fans. You’ve got to stay on top of everything and understand things, and they become a very relevant context for the ultimate decisions you make.

While the league is sticking with their expected start date of on or around January 1st, there are still several hurdles to beginning play and they may still be in place by that point in time. The league undoubtedly hoped and believed that the Coronavirus would have subsided somewhat by this point, but the numbers in North America are still not close to ideal. This all but rules out fans in the stands from the get-go, a tough pill to swallow for a league that relies on gate revenue, and even makes travel a struggle. The U.S.-Canada border is the largest travel issue of all, with no resolution to that closure in sight. The league can’t possibly support all 31 teams playing in just two bubbles again, but there is some thought that there could be several hubs, including one that contains all seven Canadian clubs. However, is even this format feasible for a full season or will the NHL have to shorten another year?

There are many questions the league still has to answer and Daly believes that they have the full support of the owners in figuring out some resolution to make sure the 2020-21 season happens and is as close to normal as possible. Of course, this is not a binary decision for the league though, as Daly acknowledges:

We have to work with the Players’ Association over what a return to play plan looks like for next year. And anything considered, talked about, discussed in the context of that ultimately has to be signed off on by both sides. Everybody has an interest in us having a season and awarding a Cup next year. And everybody will be pulling in the same direction in terms of getting there… The players’ perspective and the Players’ Association’s perspective and their input on whatever plan we ultimately come up with is critical to our ability to be successful.

With so many moving parts, questions without clear answers, and an ever-changing pandemic landscape, there is still nothing firm as to what next season could look like. Planning a full professional sports season right now is a daunting task – the MLB and NFL have had their fair share of issues even without fans in most cases and limited travel – so the NHL will take their time, consult their partners and stakeholders, and try to come up with some format that works. Daly believes they will find a solution, but admits that they are still far from that point:

I’m being honest when I say that there is no likely scenario. In other words, I couldn’t pick one. I could identify 10 to 12 scenarios for you right now and I wouldn’t be able to pick a likely scenario. While we have to make these decisions in a matter of weeks, I couldn’t tell you that we’re leaning any one over any other. It really is going to be a product of a whole bunch of considerations that have yet to materialize.

Dallas Stars Re-Sign Landon Bow

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Saturday: The Stars have made Bow’s deal official.

Friday: Anton Khudobin isn’t the only goaltender sticking with the Stars. Dallas has re-signed free agent keeper Landon Bow, according to both CapFriendly and PuckPedia. Bow had lost RFA status when the Stars declined to extend him a qualifying offer, but the young goalie has opted to stay in Dallas nevertheless. He has signed a one-year, two-way contract worth the minimum $700K at the NHL level and $90K in the AHL. Bow will be an RFA once again at the conclusion of this contract (if he receives a qualifying offer that is).

Though his limited NHL numbers suggest otherwise, Bow is not exactly considered a current asset for Dallas and may never be. Those he was stellar in a pair of emergency appearances for the Stars in 2018-19, Bow’s AHL numbers are pedestrian. He is buried behind an elite NHL tandem and superior prospects in Jake Oettinger and Colton Point, making him no more than the fifth option in net for Dallas. In fact, though Point spent much of this past season in the ECHL, it would not be a surprise if he leapfrogs Bow this year, making the former WHL standout the third-string option for AHL Texas.

Of course, it never hurts to have depth in net and Dallas could do far worse than the 6’5″ Bow. With a goalie pipeline that is almost entirely bare beyond the pro level, Bow’s experience with the organization and willingness to play a depth role contributed to Stars’ decision to bring him back. Now the 25-year-old just needs to reward the organization’s loyalty by finally putting together a complete season in the minors and re-asserting himself into the prospect battle for NHL opportunities.

NHL General Managers Discussing Draft Lottery Changes

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While Friday’s NHL GM meeting was supposed to center around plans to return to play, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reports that “a good chunk” of the discussion instead was spent on proposed changes to the NHL Draft Lottery system. Specifically, the Detroit Red Wings are leading the charge to get the lottery odds of the league’s worst teams boosted and Friedman believes they have considerable support.

The lottery structure is far from untouchable. The design has shifted several times since its inception and odds have been tweaked regularly. When the lottery began in 1995, there was only one winner selected and that team would only move up four spots. That structure changed in 2013, when the four spot limit was eliminated and every non-playoff team had a shot at the No. 1 overall pick, as they do now. In 2015, things got even more difficult for the league’s worst teams, as the odds shifted to the benefit of those teams closer to playoff contention in an effort to deter “tanking”. Finally, in 2016 things got even worse for those bottom dwellers, as all three of the top picks became lottery selections and the league’s worst team could fall all the way to fourth. And that is exactly what has happened in three of the past four years. In fact, the last-place finisher in the regular season standings has only retained the top pick twice since the structure shifted in 2013.

With teams like the 2017 Colorado Avalanche and now the 2020 Detroit Red Wings enduring historically bad seasons – without obvious tanking tactics at that – only to drop out of the top three picks entirely, it seems many of the league’s clubs have decided a change is in order. The current odds of the 31st-place team winning the lottery is 18.5%. This is 5% more than the team in second place, but still relatively low compared to the pre-2015 odds of 25%. The league has asked for specific proposals for a new alignment, which will also have to account for an incoming 32nd team in 2021-22, but given the recent history of deeply needy teams striking out in the lottery, it would not be surprise to see the odds for the last-place team bump back over 20% at least with bottom-three in the regular season standings all receiving a boost in their likelihood of sticking in the top three slots.

Carolina Hurricanes Re-Sign Gustav Forsling

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The Carolina Hurricanes have avoided arbitration with defenseman Gustav Forsling. PuckPedia and CapFriendly are both reporting that the two sides have come to terms on a one-year, two-way contract. The deal carries the minimum $700K NHL salary and a $250K AHL salary. Forsling had been scheduled for a salary arbitration hearing on November 7th.

If Forsling’s case had reached a hearing, it would have been a fascinating argument – at least from the player side. The most critical part of any arbitration case is the platform season, and Forsling did not play a single game in 2019-20. The 24-year-old defenseman was fully healthy, but simply not good enough to crack the Hurricanes’ lineup. He saw NHL action with the Chicago Blackhawks in each of the three years prior to being traded last summer, but has never played more than 43 games in any season. It would have had to have been quite the argument to convince an arbitrator that Forsling was worth more than a minimum salary. Instead, Forsling’s camp likely filed for arbitration with the primary intention of arguing that he was at least worth a one-way contract. Even that case might have been a stretch, so he has agreed to a two-way deal with a sizeable AHL salary.

Forsling’s odds of improving his case before next off-season, when he will again be an RFA with arbitration rights, seem slim. The Hurricanes currently have five established veteran defenseman on the NHL roster, other RFA’s still to sign in Haydn Fleury and Roland McKeown, a prospect pushing for time in Jake Bean, and just added a superior depth option in Joakim Ryan. Forsling would need several things to go his way to see NHL action this coming season.

Forsling’s arbitration case was the least of the Hurricanes’ worries. The team still has Fleury and forward Warren Foegele slated for hearings and there is much more on the line with that pair. CapFriendly projects Carolina to have just under $4.5MM in cap space with a current roster of 20, so the ’Canes may need to get creative (or make a move) to add Fleury, Foegele, and one more body to the roster without going over the cap. If the teams deals from their depth on the blue line, they may be able to move considerable salary. Forsling would stand to benefit from such a move as well.

Minor Transactions: 10/23/20

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The off-season continues on with NHL teams keeping busy, but minor league, European, collegiate and junior clubs continue to make moves in preparation for next season and in some cases in reaction to a season that has already begun. With many moving parts at every level, especially as the world continues to deal with the Coronavirus, transactions continue to be frequent. Here are some of today’s notable moves:

  • Carson Meyer has never known anything but Ohio hockey and that is set to continue as he begins his pro career. The Powell, OH native who attended Miami University and transferred to Ohio State University and was drafted by the Columbus Blue Jackets has signed with their AHL affiliate, the Cleveland Monsters. The club announced that Meyer has inked a one-year AHL contract. Meyer, 23, finished his NCAA career in style with a career campaign that included a near point-per-game scoring pace. The scoring forward could make an immediate impact in the minors next season.
  • Veteran minor league Phil Varone is leaving North America for the first time in his hockey career. The 29-year-old, who has 97 NHL games and over 500 AHL games on his resume, is headed to the KHL. Agent Aljosa Pilko announced that his client has signed with a team in the league. It is believed that he is bound for Barys Nur-Sultan in Kazakhstan. Varone split this past season with the Laval Rocket and Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins and has suited up for five different AHL squads in his nine pro seasons.
  • Former Montreal Canadiens prospect Cole Fonstad is not waiting for the WHL season to begin. His hometown team, the SJHL’s Estevan Bruins, announced that Fonstad has joined the club for the time being. Fonstad will re-join the Everett Silvertips once WHL training camp begins. In the meantime, the fifth-round pick who has logged 65+ points in each of the past three seasons will be make a massive impact for Estevan. He hopes to prove this season that he is worth an entry-level contract when he ages out of junior.

Washington Capitals Re-Sign Jonas Siegenthaler

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The Washington Capitals have finally come to terms with their last unsigned restricted free agent, and a bargain rate no less. The team has announced that defenseman Jonas Siegenthaler has signed a one-year contract extension. The deal carries a mere $800K salary. Siegenthaler will be an RFA again at the conclusion of the 2020-21 season.

Siegenthaler, 22, just wrapped up his first full season in the NHL, skating in 64 games for the Capitals. Siegenthaler was impressive for a rookie defenseman, recording nine points and a +11 rating, leading all regular defenseman in defensive zone start percentage, and finishing just shy of the team lead in blocked shots with 105. For a player of his age, Siegenthaler looked like a very effective defensive player and a future top-four shutdown option. The Swiss product has never been one to score many points, but he makes up for his lack of offense with his reliability on the back end.

While defensive defenseman are some of the more difficult players to valuate, few would have guessed that Siegenthaler’s new AAV would come in under $1MM, nevertheless $800K. The young defenseman was simply too good defensively in his rookie season. However, the Capitals are in a difficult spot with the salary cap, currently above the upper limit, even accounting for Siegenthaler’s minimal deal, and still need at least one more forward added to that calculation. Washington was going to need to make a move regardless, but Siegenthaler settling for a low salary number this year will make for an easier salary dump. However, the trade-off for help in the present is cost in the future. If Siegenthaler even duplicates his rookie season, he will have that much more leverage next off-season when it comes to finally negotiating a long-term deal, not to mention salary arbitration eligibility. Siegenthaler took a team-friendly deal this year and will likely cash in next summer.

Carolina Hurricanes Sign Drew Shore

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The Carolina Hurricanes have reached into the European ranks to add an NHL retread to the organization. Forward Drew Shore, who last played in North America in 2017, has agreed to a one-year deal with the Hurricanes, the team announced. It is a one-year, two-way contract worth the minimum $700K in the NHL and $150K in the AHL.

Shore, 29, has had an interesting career. A big, versatile forward, Shore was a second-round pick of the Florida Panthers in 2009 and left the University of Denver early after dominating collegiate competition. As a rookie, he even garnered Calder Trophy votes with 13 points in 43 games with the Panthers. No one would have expected that this mark would stand as his career best. Shore struggled in his limited action with Florida in his second season and was held out of the lineup entirely in his third year until he was traded to the Calgary Flames midway through the campaign. He struggled to find his footing in Calgary as well and was out of the NHL after just a season and a half with the club. Shore made his way to Switzerland to begin the 2016-17 season, but would return to the NHL midseason to sign with the Vancouver Canucks. Again, Shore failed to make the most of the opportunity and was not re-signed. He returned to the Swiss NLA for two seasons, then jumped to the KHL, where he has spent parts of the past two seasons.

Shore has always been a productive player in the minor leagues or abroad, but has never been able to translate that ability to the NHL. Nearing 30 now and three years removed from action at the highest level, Shore does seem like an odd choice to land an NHL contract, especially with so much talent still available. Yet, the Hurricanes must see something they like in the experienced journeyman.

Another strange note on the Shore signing is that a more accomplished Shore, Devin Shore, remains unsigned. This confused even the always-reliable CapFriendly in announcing the deal. Devin, 26, had a down year and was not extended a qualifying offer by the Columbus Blue Jackets, but was a consistent 30+ point player in his first three pro seasons. With the market drying up against the flat salary cap, it’s a real possibility that the superior Shore may not find NHL employment this season, while the older and less proven one plays in Carolina.

New York Islanders Sign A.J. Greer

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After trading for the rights to forward A.J. Greer last week, the New York Islanders have now come to terms on a new contract with the restricted free agent. CapFriendly reports that Greer has agreed to a one-year, two-way contract to begin his tenure with the Islanders. The deal carries the minimum $700K salary at the NHL level and $100K at the AHL level, with a minimum of $125K overall guaranteed.

Greer, 23, landed in New York early last week in a deal that saw defenseman Kyle Burroughs go to the Colorado Avalanche. In four seasons with the Avs, Greer struggled to stick in the NHL lineup. It’s been a theme in the career of the talented forward, who also didn’t fit at Boston University and ended up leaving for the QMJHL. A 2015 second-round pick, Colorado gave Greer chances to carve out a role, but he consistently struggled to make the most of his opportunities. This past season, Greer did not play in the NHL at all. He counts just 37 games and six points at the top level for his career thus far.

With that said, Greer has always showed promise even if it hasn’t translated to the NHL. A big, two-way winger with good AHL numbers, a fresh start may be exactly what Greer needs. In the Islanders’ defense-oriented system, he may actually be an ideal fit in the bottom-six if he can win a job in camp or work his way into the lineup during the season. On just a one-year deal, Greer is hoping to establish his value before another round of RFA negotiations. A strong campaign could land him a multi-year extension, while a failure to make anything of his new chance could cost him a qualifying offer and land him on the open market. It’s a do-or-die season for the young forward.

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