While Friday’s NHL GM meeting was supposed to center around plans to return to play, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reports that “a good chunk” of the discussion instead was spent on proposed changes to the NHL Draft Lottery system. Specifically, the Detroit Red Wings are leading the charge to get the lottery odds of the league’s worst teams boosted and Friedman believes they have considerable support.
The lottery structure is far from untouchable. The design has shifted several times since its inception and odds have been tweaked regularly. When the lottery began in 1995, there was only one winner selected and that team would only move up four spots. That structure changed in 2013, when the four spot limit was eliminated and every non-playoff team had a shot at the No. 1 overall pick, as they do now. In 2015, things got even more difficult for the league’s worst teams, as the odds shifted to the benefit of those teams closer to playoff contention in an effort to deter “tanking”. Finally, in 2016 things got even worse for those bottom dwellers, as all three of the top picks became lottery selections and the league’s worst team could fall all the way to fourth. And that is exactly what has happened in three of the past four years. In fact, the last-place finisher in the regular season standings has only retained the top pick twice since the structure shifted in 2013.
With teams like the 2017 Colorado Avalanche and now the 2020 Detroit Red Wings enduring historically bad seasons – without obvious tanking tactics at that – only to drop out of the top three picks entirely, it seems many of the league’s clubs have decided a change is in order. The current odds of the 31st-place team winning the lottery is 18.5%. This is 5% more than the team in second place, but still relatively low compared to the pre-2015 odds of 25%. The league has asked for specific proposals for a new alignment, which will also have to account for an incoming 32nd team in 2021-22, but given the recent history of deeply needy teams striking out in the lottery, it would not be surprise to see the odds for the last-place team bump back over 20% at least with bottom-three in the regular season standings all receiving a boost in their likelihood of sticking in the top three slots.
TRUST THE PROCESS
TRUST THE PROCESS
TRUST THE PROCESS
@kingcong95 – Trust NO ONE! … AND cut the cards! ;)
I’ve never been a big fan of the draft lottery as a whole. I especially don’t think it should involve the top 3 picks. And while I don’t think the lottery is going anywhere, the worst team shouldn’t potentially be picking at 4. For one thing, make only the top 2 picks part of the lottery and increase the odds of the bottom 3 teams for those 2 spots. At the end of the day, there really shouldn’t be a way for a team that barely missed the playoffs to be picking in the top 2 picks. Just my opinion.
Funny… I don’t remember the Wings complaining when they were making the playoffs every year
Good point! ^^
That’s idiotic. The lottery system is horrible and the worst teams rarely get the top pick. Other teams have complained each time but now that Wings have been screwed two years in a row, its time to get it right. It’s not about the Wings, it’s about the system.
It’s rough but I think it should just be like basketball to some degree. Tanking are things teams need to do to change the guard and everyone goes through a period of stink. What needs to happen is say you tank for a year the next year your odds should skew a bit to prevent you from consistently getting 1st overall pick like the oilers did for years.
I like that idea. Have a safeguard that you can’t get the #1 pick two years in a row. I don’t see that type of rule being agreed upon, but I like it.
You gotta wonder about the value of “tanking” today.
Unless it is for a generational player, which as an Oilers fan I’ve seen that a McDavid doesn’t win a cup automatically, nor do other #1 drafts.
Crosby likely wouldn’t have the same success without a Malkin. So no single player can make it happen.
The Salary Cap is also a factor in this.
Consider the impact on players being told to lose… well now they are losers, and not trying to be winners.
Vegas did amazing in their first year because everyone showed up with no clear #1 anything and a chip on their shoulders to say F-U to the teams that left them as “undesirable enough”.
I think too much emphasis is placed on #1 drafts in today’s game.
My leafs haven’t won a cup in half a century and have had an abundance of top 10 picks along the way, if you can’t build a team properly you’re not going to win. The best way is from the backend out always has been always will be, in the playoffs defense wins games
The lottery system is completely broken. In this system its guaranteed the worst teams will slip. The odds need to be nerfed for teams outside the bottom 3.
Bingo.
I think they should switch it up once in awhile and give the best team number 1 not the cup winner but maybe the president trophy winner gets that’s season do it like every 5-6 yrs it would help teams so they don’t have to go through a big rebuild
Personally because I’m a Bruins fan I wish they would of done it this yr so many teams kinda got screwed for the untimely break
so offer a guaranteed top team a #1 pick? seems like a backwards idea.
plus what if they don’t have a 1st round pick? many top teams deal late first rounders.
Then it’s traded to what ever team it’s traded to if they did it this way on every 5th yr it would make teams try more and rebuild sooner and stop some of the tanking conversations maybe just a thought
Except for the part where the Rangers and Devils keep getting the lightest balls, the current system is fine. No reason teams like the Wings or Sens should be rewarded for putting out a garbage product.
But, hey, if the NHL wants to make it easier to tank, the Pens are going to have to rebuild soon. We could use another Lemieux, Jagr, Crosby, Malkin or two…or three.
as much as a prefer a non-lottery system, i do agree on the Sens/Wings thing. id be a fan of a system that keeps teams from winning the lottery frequently. maybe youre ineligible for a top 5 pick the year after picking 1st, you cant get multiple #1s within 5 years, things like that. no garbage like the Astros getting 3 in a row.
They did that in the Crosby draft. The Caps, Panthers, etc. (all the recent teams that got first overall picks) got less balls.
If I was to design the NHL lottery, it would be weighted by record, the ten worst teams would be eligible, teams would only be able to pick first once every 4 years and only be able to pick in the top 3 twice in a 4 year span.
I’m ok with the weighting system and bottom 10 idea but the once in four years you lose me. if a team is awful, they should have a shot at the #1 prize. being the worst team doesnt ensure #1 even if more heavily weighted. if the wings or send draft #1, the likelihood is unless they had a generational talent, they are going to be in the running again for #1. It’s really dependent on the draft class. Getting a Crosby, McDavid, Matthews has helped those teams. Nico on the other hand…
Nico is amazing when compared to Yakupov. #1 means nothing in the hands of a bad GM/Scouts (or owner in the case of the Oilers).
lotteries are lame
It needs to be Oiler-proofed for the next 20 years.
What about a non playoff tourney for the no.1 pick? NIT style. Consolation prize.
Doubt it will ever happen but I totally like the idea. Be fun to watch kind of like a second playoffs!
Teams have a #1 pick and pick the wrong player. It takes more than one player to make a team a contender. Many teams don’t tank on purpose.
It’s pretty ludicrous that the worst team has an 81.5% chance of not getting the first pick…
Teams tank every year anyone who says otherwise is a liar. Teams like the oilers are paying for consistently poor management shouldn’t be rewarded. They have 2 of the 5 best in the game. Conversely teams like the leafs have financial and geographic advantages no other teams have so why give them another ? Go back to the bottom 4 being in the lottery with a maximum slide to 4 and only one top 4 pick every 5 years. That will end repetitive tanking and encourage poorly managed teams from being rewarded
At the end of the day u have to draft well.
The canucks have had no luck at the draft lottery.
In 2017 they fell the full 3 spots and drafted Pettersson. Hischier, Patrick were 1-2.
In 2018 they fell again 1 spot and drafted Quinn Hughes after Hayton and Kotkaniemi were already gone.
Some teams cant get out of their own way. Lottery wont cure or change that
So GMs should blame themselves, not the lottery. But then they might be held responsible for being terrible!
Football and baseball have done fine without a lottery so get rid of it or make it so the worst 3 or 4 get to have a lottery of who gets #1 but no team who finishes below 3 should get a shot at number 1 or 2.
Apples and oranges.
About time
So the Avs ‘had to settle’ for makar instead of nico.
The oilers struck it big with yakupov.
All of this argument is based on the idea that #1 picks are guaranteed superstars and they aren’t. Go back through the drafts and see how many #1s are actually worth that billing. You will find that while you have better odds of getting a generational talent at #1, it is far from a guaranteed thing.
Someone please print out this whole argument and save it for 10 years, if Jack hughes doesn’t win a cup, alex laf doesn’t have a Hart and mcdavids traded out of Edmonton you all will feel damn silly for trying to reinvent the wheel won’t you?!
And why is it no surprise to me the it’s the wings that spark this whole thing? They were a contender for virtually 50 years. Your turn to suck Yzerman. Deal with it.
The lottery was rigged. My President said so.