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NHL Announces Selke Trophy Finalists

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The Professional Hockey Writers’ Association has spoken, as the NHL has announced that three forwards have been nominated for the 2018 Frank J. Selke Award. The Selke Award, or as some call it “the Bergeron Award”, is given each year to the top defensive forward in the league. To the surprise of very few, Boston Bruins top center Patrice Bergeron is again among the finalists, a record seventh consecutive nomination. Bergeron is the reigning champ and the winner in four of the past six seasons. However, Bergeron faces stiff competition for his fifth Selke, going up against 2016 winner and two-time runner-up, Los Angeles Kings captain Anze Kopitar, and breakout Philadelphia Flyers star Sean Couturier, who earns his first Selke nod.

While the Selke is perhaps up to the eye test more than any other major award, there are some key statistics to look at to determine the odds-on favorite. The original measure of a players’ two-way success is plus/minus, which would favor Couturier. His +34 rating was good enough to tie for third in the NHL behind only Vegas Golden Knights linemates William Karlsson and Jon Marchessault. Meanwhile, both Bergeron and Kopitar were +21, tied for 28th. However, possession metrics may be the best way to evaluate two-way ability, in particular a player’s Corsi For %, which shows the proportion of shots for relative to shots against. By this standard, Bergeron was firmly in the lead. His 57.56 CF% led all forwards who played in at least 50 games this season. In comparison, Couturier was 59th and Kopitar was 93rd among that same subset. Bergeron also edges out the other two in face-off percentage, short-handed time on ice, and takeaways; Couturier gets the nod in hits, while Kopitar had the most blocked shots. It again looks as if Bergeron would be the favorite, but one thing to consider is that Bergeron played in just 64 games this season, averaged the least amount of time on ice of the trio, and benefited from playing alongside another two-way dynamo in Brad Marchand. Bergeron may have been the best defensive forward in the league this year – and at this point might be the best all-time – but there’s a strong case that the two-way play of Kopitar and Couturier had a greater impact in 2017-18.

As for snubs, many out there will fight for the cases of Minnesota Wild captain Mikko Koivu, dynamic young Florida Panther Aleksander Barkov, and even the aforementioned Marchand. However, unlike the debated results of the Vezina voting, it seems that the correct trio of players were selected and any one would be worthy of taking home the hardware at the NHL Awards in June.

Vezina Finalists Announced; Is The Evaluation Process Flawed?

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The NHL has announced the three finalists for the Vezina Award, given each year to the league’s best goaltender, as voted on by the league’s general managers. Vying for the trophy at the NHL Awards in Las Vegas this June will be the Winnipeg Jets’ Connor Hellebuyck, the Nashville Predators’ Pekka Rinne, and the Tampa Bay Lightning’s Andrei Vasilevskiy. This is the first nomination for Hellebuyck and Vasilevskiy, while Rinne has previously been up for the award three times.

At first glance, the three nominees are not surprising. All three have had great seasons and are clearly among the top goaltenders in the league. However, hockey analytics guru Rob Vollman makes a pretty good case for why the evaluation process my be flawed. As Vollman points out, the only category in which the trio were tops in the league is wins, a statistic based entirely off of team performance, not individual performance. Hellebuyck and Vasilevskiy led the league with 44 wins, while Rinne was right behind with 42.  Yet, only Rinne was top three in the league among goalies with 41+ starts in save percentage, quality starts percentage, and goals saved above average, Vollman’s stats of choice. By those standards of evaluation, Vasilevskiy should have been nowhere near Vezina contention. Instead, Vollman’s poster boy for proper evaluation is the Anaheim Ducks’ John Gibson, who was a top-four finisher in each of those three categories and a top-ten finisher in wins. Also garnering some more attentions should have been the Vegas Golden Knights’ Marc-Andre Fleury and the Arizona Coyotes’ Antti Raanta, both of whom were excellent statistically, but lacked the number of starts and wins that are apparently requisite for Vezina contention in today’s NHL.

It’s no surprise that the three contenders for best goaltender are who they are. However, that doesn’t mean it’s correct, especially in a season so many other obvious choices. General managers surely do not evaluate goalies based on wins alone when evaluating them for acquisition, so why does a clearly-flawed statistic hold so much weight in the Vezina race? It’s a question worth asking and Vollman’s reaction, as well as others’, may change the voting results come next season. In the meantime, look for Rinne to finally take home the hardware this year in his fourth try, a result that was likely even with proper evaluation.

Rangers Closing In On Swedish Forward Michael Lindqvist

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The New York Rangers are already in off-season mode following a disappointing 77-point season that saw them finish last in the Metropolitan Division and trade away several big-name veterans. GM Jeff Gorton and company clearly have at least a restructuring of the team in mind, if not a complete rebuild. With such a process often comes some unique ways of replenishing the talent that is traded away for picks and prospects. While one player already linked to the Rangers this off-season has been KHL star and former NHL standout Ilya Kovalchuk, many have questioned if adding a 35-year-old who thrives when playing with high-end talent was really the right move for a rebuilding team. A new European rumor makes much more sense. According to a Swedish news source, the Kvalls Posten, young Swedish star Michael Lindqvist is nearing a deal to join New York.

Lindqvist, 23, is a sharp-shooting right winger who is coming off a breakout season with Farjestad of the Swedish Hockey League. Although injuries limited Lindqvist to just 33 games in 2017-18, the young Swede still finished third on his team in scoring and had the best per-game production on the roster. In fact, Lindqvist’s 34 points in 33 games was the fourth-best points-per-game rate in the entire league among players who skated in at least half of their team’s games. Lindqvist also added three points in two playoff games for Farjestad, which was a quarterfinalist in the SHL this season.

In speaking about Lindqvist’s contract situation, agent Joakim Persson told the Kvalls Posten that there were a number of teams interested in Lindqvist, but that the list has been narrowed down. Persson adds the Washington Capitals to the list of finalists for Lindqvist’s services, but states that the Rangers are the heavy favorite. Persson says that a decision is approaching and that a deal will be official soon. While there will surely be an adjustment period for Lindqvist, the talented forward is a worthwhile gamble for the Rangers, who will look to reconstruct their roster with as much youth and potential as possible during the upcoming summer and beyond.

An Underwhelming 2018 Goalie Draft Class

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There are already 15 teams whose 2017-18 season has come to and end, with eight more joining the group in the next week or two. For those teams, full attention has already been turned to preparing for the off-season. The first major event of the summer is the NHL Entry Draft, coming up on June 22-23, where teams can add promising young prospects at every position. However, for any teams in need of a major addition in net to the pipeline, the 2018 class leaves a lot to be desired.

The days of goaltenders being selected early in the first round may be over, but at least one goalie has been selected in the first fifty picks of the draft every year since the turn of the century, including several years with multiple first-round keepers. That streak may come to an end in 2018. Somewhat lost in the hype of top prospects like Rasmus Dahlin and many other high-ceiling forwards and defenseman is the fact that few see any young goaltenders worthy of value picks this year. The first mock drafts from NHL.com and Yahoo both fail to include any keepers in the top 31 picks and Sportsnet’s latest Top 31 makes no mention of one either. The Hockey Writers takes it one step further, including just one goaltender among the first 75 players in their Top 93.

That one goalie, Czech pro Jakub Skarek, is a polarizing prospect. Skarek has good size and put up good numbers for HC Dukla Jihlava, one of the worst teams in the top Czech league, earning his top ranking among European goalies by NHL Central Scouting. Yet, Skarek also looked completely over-matched at the World Juniors and many feel is still a very raw talent, lending some explanation to what some feel is a third-round grade. Skarek may be the best the class has to offer though. The QMJHL offers a relatively strong group – Alexis Gravel, Olivier Rodrigue, and Kevin Mandolese – but all pale in comparison to top prospects from recent draft years.

Could one of these goalies slip into the first round? It would be a major surprise. The top fifty picks? That could more likely, but at this point in the pre-draft process seems to also be a stretch. So, for those teams in need of a top goaltender in the system, and there a quite a few, this may be the year to look for a sleeper in the late rounds rather than reach for an underwhelming option early on.

Edmonton Oilers Re-Sign Ty Rattie

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It’s easy to forget that non-playoff teams are still hard at work behind the scenes, but the Edmonton Oilers have thrown their name into the postseason news cycle this evening. The team announced that they have re-signed forward Ty Rattie to a one-year contract extension worth $800K. Rattie was an impending unrestricted free agent, having signed a one-year deal with Edmonton last off-season.

Rattie must be relieved to have his contract situation wrapped up and to be returning to Edmonton next season. The 2016-17 experience was not an easy one for Rattie; the swift-skating right winger played in four games with the St. Louis Blues early in the season, was waived and claimed by the Carolina Hurricanes in January, was waived again a month later after just five games in Raleigh, and claimed back by the Blues who buried him in the AHL for the remainder of the season. Rattie was then not given a qualifying offer last summer, making him an unrestricted free agent. Rattie settled for a one-year, two-way deal with the Oilers, but made the most of it, scoring a career-high nine points in 14 games while also earning an AHL All-Star nod, finishing with 43 points in 53 games.

This extension will represent a substantial raise over his last deal with the Oilers. After an impressive campaign at both levels, the 25-year-old looks primed to fight for a full-time role in Edmonton next season. While he is likely happy to be back with the team that gave him the best chance to succeed thus far in his young pro career, Rattie – and the Oilers – must have known that he could have drawn some interest on the open market as well. Instead, there was clearly mutual interest in maintaining the status quo.

Viktor Tikhonov Not Returning To NHL

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With an off-season upcoming in which it is expected that several high-profile KHL players, young and old, could be eyeing the NHL, former Phoenix Coyotes first-round pick Viktor Tikhonov will not be among them. Tikhonov’s KHL team, powerhouse SKA St. Petersburg, announced that they have resigned Tikhonov to a two-year contract extension (link in Russian). The next chance that the two-way forward will have to try his hand overseas yet again will be in 2020, when he will be on the wrong side of thirty.

Tikhonov, now 29, has been a reliable top-nine forward for SKA over the past two seasons since returning from his last stint in the KHL. With so many of his teammates linked to NHL teams, it is no surprise that St. Petersburg jumped at the opportunity to re-sign a player with three-zone ability. SKA’s leading scorer, Ilya Kovalchuk, is yet again flirting with an NHL comeback. Their next-best forward, Nikita Gusev, had his rights traded to the Vegas Golden Knights last year and has surely had conversations with the club as his time to make the jump is running out. Former Coyote and Pittsburgh Penguin Sergei Plotnikov is fresh off of a career year and could be eyeing a second chance overseas. Draft-eligible defenseman Danila Galenyuk is expected to go no later than the third round and could change his developmental path depending on where and to whom he is selected. Even the goaltenders are at risk; Mikko Koskinen is rumored to have a deal in place to return to the New York Islanders while young Igor Shestyorkin looks to be the heir apparent to Henrik Lundqvist for the New York Rangers and could begin the takeover process soon. So, while Tikhonov isn’t considered one the best players on SKA, it makes sense that the team would lock him up in short order as they did, with other high-end talent possibly on the way out.

However, Tikhonov being off the market also presumes that there would have been a market for him in North America this summer. Although Tikhonov came into the league with lofty expectations – the 28th overall pick in 2008 who jumped right into the Coyotes lineup, as well the grandson of a legendary Soviet coach – he cannot be described as anything but a bust in the NHL. The height of his career at the highest level came in his rookie season, when he put up 16 point in 61 games for then-Phoenix. Tikhonov finished the year and began the next in the AHL and soured on the North American experience, returning to Russia. He only made his return a few years ago, in 2015-16, and was completely ineffective, registering six points in 50 games between the Coyotes and Chicago Blackhawks. Even in the KHL, Tikhonov’s numbers have not skyrocketed like many of his compatriots returning home. Tikhonov is of course a highly-skilled and versatile player who was never at his best in the NHL, but it’s fair to be skeptical if anyone would have been interested in giving him a third try had he not re-signed. Now, with a multi-year extension in hand to stay in Russia, it is possible that we have seen the last of Tikhonov in the the world’s top hockey league.

Nazem Kadri Suspended For Three Games

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After much anticipation, the NHL Department of Player Safety has finally made their decision on Toronto Maple Leafs forward Nazem Kadri. Kadri, who had a hearing today regarding his charge and boarding of the Boston Bruins’ Tommy Wingels last night, learned his fate this evening. Kadri will be suspended for the next three games of the Leafs’ first-round series against the Bruins. Player Safety explained their decision as such (video):

“Kadri sees Wingels has fallen, and with sufficient time to adjust his course or minimize the force, instead drives recklessly into the defenseless Wingels, causing his head to dangerously impact the boards. This is boarding. It is important to note that Kadri is in control of this hit at all times… Instead of avoiding or minimizing this hit, Kadri drives his hip into Wingels’ upper body”.

What Player Safety doesn’t address is the context that also leads one to believe that the hit was intentional. Kadri had just served a minor penalty for boarding Wingels less than four minutes earlier and, just before the hit in question, Sean Kuraly had scored for Boston, giving the Bruins a commanding 4-1 lead late in Game One. Kadri has a history of losing his cool, as this is his fourth career suspension – all of which have come from dirty hits to the head area – another fact that Player Safety definitely took into consideration in issuing this lengthy ban. Also likely taken into account is the fact that Wingels did not return to the game last night and did not practice today (and now the Leafs will likely have to deal with Ryan Donato in Game Two and beyond). Down in the series, the Leafs will be forced to bounce back from a convincing four-goal loss without the services of a veteran top-six forward for three more games. Head coach Mike Babcock and Kadri’s Toronto teammates can’t be happy about what was honestly a thoughtless, selfish decision by Kadri in the team’s playoff debut. Kadri could live to regret it, especially if he’s already played his final game of the season.

Kadri’s suspension is already the second handed down by Player Safety this postseason and just two days into the action. Los Angeles Kings defenseman Drew Doughty will serve his one-game suspension tonight for a high, dangerous hit to the Vegas Golden Knights’ William Carrier on Wednesday. Yet, some are upset that the number of suspensions is not even higher. The Columbus Blue Jackets and Washington Capitals traded cheap shots last night, with the Jackets’ Josh Anderson injuring Michal Kempny and the Caps’ Tom Wilson injuring Alexander Wennberg, but neither player received any additional punishment. Nashville’s Ryan Johansen also had a questionable check on Colorado defenseman Tyson Barrie that didn’t draw any league scrutiny. As always, the playoffs take the physicality to the next level, but this year has seen heavy hitting early and often. At least through two suspensions in two days, Player Safety has shown that they aren’t afraid to hit players with postseason suspensions.

Overseas Notes: Koskinen, Salo, Jooris

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It seems that the New York Islanders could be turning to an old friend when it comes to improving their play in net in 2018-19. The Isles gave up a league-worst 296 goals this season, a 3.61 GAA, behind the pedestrian play of starter Jaroslav Halak and dismal performance of overpaid backup Thomas Greiss. Even solid AHL keeper Christopher Gibson struggled in his eight appearances. With Halak hitting the free agent market and Gibson, a restricted free agent, having an uncertain future – not to mention the undoubted desire by some in the organization to move on from Greiss – the goalie position is in need of an overhaul this off-season. One early rumored piece to the puzzle? Former prospect Mikko Koskinen. In fact, Russian news source Sport Express reports that the two sides have already agreed to a preliminary deal and will make their reunion official on July 1st. Koskinen, 29, was a second-round draft pick by New York back in 2009 and brought with him high expectations when he crossed the Atlantic that same year. However, the hulking 6’7” Finn did not last long, playing in parts of three disappointing seasons in North America, including an .873 save percentage and 4.33 GAA in four starts with the Isles in 2010-11. Koskinen, still very young, returned home and immediately returned to dominating the Finnish Liiga before making the jump to the KHL. Since 2014-15, Koskinen has been the starter for KHL powerhouse SKA St. Petersburg and has been one of the league’s top goaltenders. Last season, Koskinen led the team to a Gagarin Cup title, only to improve his play this year with a stunning 1.57 GAA and .937 save percentage. Now, Koskinen want another shot at the big time and the Isles appear willing to give him a chance to see if his developed game can translate to the NHL. Neither the Islanders nor SKA have confirmed Koskinen’s move at this point, and may not until the deal is made official when free agency opens, but it hardly seems out of the realm of possibility. Not only does New York need a boost in net, but Koskinen is just one of several KHL goaltenders who have expressed an interest in the NHL market this summer, including Olympic standout Pavel Francouz and veteran NHLer Karri Ramo. A short-term contract for Koskinen to compete for the Isles’ starter job would come as little surprise.

  • One player who won’t be leaving Europe for the Islanders is top defensive prospect Robin Salo. Salo, New York’s second-round pick last June, has signed a two-year deal with Finnish club SaiPa, the team announced (link in Finnish). The homegrown product, who has already been applauded for his mature, well-rounded game, appears interested in further seasoning in the Liiga before joining the NHL. The SaiPa press release quoted Salo as saying “”I think I can develop the game here and move forward”, likely meaning when his new contract expires in 2020. Possibly forming an dynamic tandem with top Boston Bruins defensive prospect Urho Vaakanainen, Salo certainly could impress over the next two years. However, back in New York, the Islanders will have to look elsewhere for an immediate boost on the blue line, another sore spot of 2017-18.
  • While the Islanders’ season may be over, Josh Jooris and the Pittsburgh Penguins are still playing. Yet, that hasn’t stopped the rumor mill from turning in regards to Jooris’ potential departure form North America. Throughout the year, Jooris has been connected to teams in Europe, particularly in the Swiss NLA, after he nearly signed in the league last summer. The two-way forward could be looking for a new opportunity as his game continues to regress in the NHL. After a promising rookie year with the Calgary Flames in 2014-15, Jooris’ production has dropped off each year. This season, he bounced back and forth from the AHL and had just six points in 40 NHL games, none of which came in his nine games of action with the Penguins following a deadline deal from the Carolina Hurricanes. Jooris reportedly wants a fresh start and now a team has returned that interest. Coach and GM Chris McSorely of the NLA’s Geneve-Servette HC revealed that at the top of his shortlist of potential free agent imports is none other than Jooris. With seemingly mutual interest and a presumed lack of value for Jooris is in the NHL market, this seems to be a rumor with some legs.

2018 NHL Draft Lottery Odds

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The regular season is over and for the first time in NHL history there are 15 teams on the outside of the playoff picture. For those squads and their fans, it’s a long wait for anything positive to come, with the 2018 NHL Entry Draft more than ten weeks away, scheduled for June 18th, and the start of free agency another two weeks after that. However, the odds for this year’s NHL Draft Lottery are now set and teams can at least look forward to the ping pong balls being drawn at the end of the month, on Saturday, April 28th. With the teams in the running now set, here are the odds for the #1 overall pick in this years draft:

31st – Buffalo Sabres: 18.5%

30th – Ottawa Senators: 13.5%

29th – Arizona Coyotes: 11.5%

28th – Montreal Canadiens: 9.5%

27th – Detroit Red Wings: 8.5%

26th – Vancouver Canucks: 7.5%

25th – Chicago Blackhawks: 6.5%

24th – New York Rangers: 6.0%

23rd – Edmonton Oilers: 5.0%

22nd – New York Islanders: 3.5%

21st – Carolina Hurricanes: 3.0%

20th – New York Islanders (from Calgary Flames): 2.5%

19th – Dallas Stars: 2.0%

18th – Philadelphia Flyers (from St. Louis Blues (top-ten option)): 1.5%

17th – Florida Panthers: 1.0%

If you are a fan of one of these teams, you can entertain yourself for the next few weeks with this Lottery Simulator from Tankathon.com.

West Notes: Blues, Flames, Canucks

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The St. Louis Blues just narrowly missed out on making the playoffs this season, losing in regulation to the Colorado Avalanche in their regular season finale – the only result that could have eliminated them from the postseason picture. To add insult to injury, the Blues have also played the 2017-18 season without an AHL affiliate, leaving fans without the consolation prize of at least watching a team of St. Louis prospects make a playoff run. Nevertheless, the team has assigned goalie Ville Husso and defenseman Chris Butler to the San Antonio Rampage, the team with the majority of the Blues’ minor league prospects. Yet, the Rampage sit in last place in the extremely tight AHL Pacific Division with just three games remaining. Dejected Blues fans may have to follow Beau Bennett and Wade Megan with the Chicago Wolves or Jordan Binnington with the Providence Bruins if they want a horse in the race come AHL playoff time.

  • Calgary Flames GM Brad Treliving told the Canadian Press that his team has a “laundry list” of issues to sort out this off-season. After making the postseason last year and, as the article notes, adding Mike Smith and Travis Hamonic last summer, missing the playoffs this year can only be seen as a disappointment and Treliving is ready to make changes. At the top of that “laundry list” is deciding what to do with head coach Glen Gulutzan. Beyond that, one list item specifically mentioned by Treliving is figuring out how to fix the Flames’ tepid power play, which finished 29th in the league and only got worse as the season wore on. As Treliving puts it, “In a league where the margins are thin, it’s not surprising that the teams that are successful in (special teams) usually have successful years, so it was critical.”
  • One team that will be far less active this off-season are the Vancouver Canucks. Jeff Paterson of TSN gets the feeling that this could be one of the quietest Canuck off-seasons in years. President Trevor Linden spoke with the media today and stated that “Obviously on a day like this, we’re disappointed by not achieving all of our goals. At the same time, we’re encouraged as an organization with where we are moving forward. I think this group has an identity with its young players. That’s exciting” Paterson read this statement as saying that after back-to-back busy summers, the team is disappointed in its performance, but with a young core and plenty of depth in talented prospects, this is a team moving in the right direction. For that reason, Paterson hypothesizes that it could be a “wait and see”-type summer, writing “Outside of the National Hockey League draft lottery and the draft itself, don’t be the least bit surprised if you don’t hear a peep from the Vancouver Canucks until training camp.”

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