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Five Key Stories: 7/29/24 – 8/4/24

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With the final arbitration hearings approaching early in the week, we saw a couple of important settlements while a pair of key blueliners inked long-term contract extensions.  Those are among the headlines in our key stories.

Second Bridge For Necas: Unable to find a suitable trade (or at least a team he was willing to sign long-term with), Martin Necas and the Hurricanes ultimately settled on a two-year, $13MM contract to avoid salary arbitration.  The deal does not contain any trade protection (he’s too young to be eligible) and walks him right to UFA eligibility in 2026.  The 25-year-old wasn’t quite able to match his 2022-23 output when he had a career-best 71 points but he still turned in a solid showing last season with 24 goals and 29 assists in 77 games.  It’s believed that Necas is looking to play a more prominent role, we’ll find out next season if Carolina is willing to play him higher up the lineup or if he’ll remain a fixture on the second line.

Lindgren Avoids Arbitration: Rather than get to a hearing, the Rangers and defenseman Ryan Lindgren agreed on a one-year, $4.5MM contract.  The deal represents a fair-sized raise on his previous $3MM AAV and $3.6MM qualifying offer.  Lindgren played in 76 games last season, picking up three goals and 14 assists while surpassing 100 blocks and hits in 19:21 per night.  He will still have one year of arbitration eligibility remaining next summer but this time, he’ll be owed a $4.5MM qualifying offer.

Eight For Faber: Following a stellar rookie year, the Wild wasted little time locking up defenseman Brock Faber, signing him to an eight-year, $68MM contract extension that will run through the 2032-33 season.  The 21-year-old joined Minnesota for a handful of games in 2023 but last season was his first full professional campaign.  Faber quickly became their top blueliner, putting up 47 points while playing in all 82 games, averaging nearly 25 minutes a night in the process which helped earn him a spot on the All-Rookie team and a second-place finish in Calder Trophy voting.  While there is some risk in signing a player with less than 100 games of NHL experience (including playoffs) to that type of contract, Faber’s cost could have gone even higher next summer if he had a similar showing in 2024-25.

Calling It A Career: Veteran forward Eric Staal has decided to retire, signing a one-day contract with the Hurricanes before officially calling it a career.  The 39-year-old last played in the 2022-23 campaign as a regular fourth line center with Florida, capping an impressive 18-year career.  All told, Staal picked up 455 goals and 608 assists in 1,365 games with six different organizations with a dozen of those coming with Carolina where he holds the bulk of the team’s records post-relocation from Hartford.  The Hurricanes will retire Staal’s #12 at some point this coming season.

Canadiens Sign Three Blueliners: The Canadiens were busy dealing with several of their young rearguards.  First, they re-signed their two remaining restricted free agents to bridge contracts.  Arber Xhekaj received a two-year, $2.6MM deal while Justin Barron re-upped for two years and $2.3MM in total.  Both players will be restricted free agents again in 2026, this time with arbitration eligibility.  Then, Montreal inked Kaiden Guhle to a six-year, $33.3MM extension that begins in 2025-26.  The 22-year-old has logged big minutes in his first two seasons, establishing himself as a long-term piece of their blueline puzzle as they look to try to emerge from their rebuild in the coming seasons.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Snapshots: Blackhawks, Pavelski, Skarek, Mersch

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After a very active free agent period that saw them bring in several veterans in an effort to become more competitive next season, it appears as if the Blackhawks are finished with trying to land at the bottom of the standings.  Ben Pope of the Chicago Sun-Times suggests that they’re taking a risk in doing so since they haven’t landed a second high-end forward prospect to partner up with Connor Bedard down the road.  Chicago has ample defensive depth and some quality goalie prospects but among their forward prospects, there aren’t any who project as high-end top-line talent (someone like Frank Nazar could get there in time but the safer planning would be with him in a second-line role).  Having said that, the Blackhawks will have ample cap space moving forward so if they don’t draft a running mate for Bedard, they could try to land one in free agency down the road.

Elsewhere around the hockey world:

  • Former Sharks GM Doug Wilson acknowledged to Sheng Peng of NBC Sports Bay Area that he made a mistake in not retaining Joe Pavelski back in 2019. The veteran forward was coming off a strong year that saw him put up 38 goals but he had dealt with injuries the two years before that while they also committed big money to retain Evander Kane and Erik Karlsson, not leaving enough for them to pay market value for Pavelski’s services.  He went on to play five seasons in Dallas before calling it a career earlier this offseason.
  • Stefan Rosner of The Hockey News assesses the goaltending depth of the Islanders and suggests that Jakub Skarek’s time with the organization could be coming to an end. Marcus Hogberg is expected to serve as the starter with AHL Bridgeport while Henrik Tikkanen greatly outperformed Skarek last season and should serve as Hogberg’s backup.  Skarek has one year left on his deal so it’s possible that New York will look to flip the 24-year-old to a team looking for extra goalie depth.  If that fails, Rosner wonders if the two sides would consider a mutual contract termination which would allow him to try to catch on overseas.
  • Veteran free agent winger Michael Mersch is considering retirement, relays Lance Lysowski of The Buffalo News. The 31-year-old had been a staple for Buffalo’s AHL team in Rochester the past four seasons and is coming off a 15-goal, 38-point showing in 66 games in 2023-24.  Mersch has 17 career NHL appearances under his belt, all with Los Angeles back in the 2015-16 campaign.

Edmonton’s Cap Planning Could Be Hindered By An Offer Sheet

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While offer sheets are few and far between in the NHL, all it takes is one team that decides to try to disrupt things and sign a player on a cap-strapped team to an offer sheet to change things.  Looking at who is left, Edmonton is a team that would find themselves in a tough spot if one of their restricted free agents, defenseman Philip Broberg and forward Dylan Holloway, were to eventually sign an offer sheet with another team.

Even after moving out Ryan McLeod to Buffalo earlier this summer, the Oilers currently find themselves projected over the salary cap by $354K, per PuckPedia, and that’s with a 21-player roster.  While there has been plenty of speculation that winger Evander Kane could be on LTIR to start the season, that’s only a short-term solution as they’d have to get back into cap compliance to activate him later on.  The fact they went and moved McLeod out suggests that they don’t expect Kane to miss the entire year so they’ll have to drop below the $88MM Upper Limit at some point.

To that end, it stands to reason that Edmonton will be pushing for bridge deals with both Broberg and Holloway, perhaps as short as a one-year agreement to keep the cap charge as low as possible.  It’s a route they took with Evan Bouchard last summer and did so in the past with McLeod and Kailer Yamamoto coming off their entry-level contracts.  All things considered, they’ve been pretty consistent with that practice and understandably so.

But what if one or both of those players want the security of a longer-term agreement?  At this point, it looks like the only way they’d be able to get one is by signing an offer sheet.

Granted, neither player has done enough at the NHL level to command the type of offer from another team that pushes the compensation threshold to the level of a first-round pick.  But it doesn’t have to get that high to put Edmonton in a bind, assuming the players are willing to sign an offer sheet elsewhere.

Broberg only played 12 regular season games for the Oilers last season but the 2019 eighth-overall pick was quite productive with AHL Bakersfield.  The 23-year-old then got into ten playoff games and played well enough that there will be teams that should be willing to take a multi-year flyer on Broberg at a salary that likely surpasses what GM Stan Bowman has in mind.

Holloway is in a similar situation.  He also wound up spending time with the Condors and produced 16 points in 18 games there.  But the 2020 14th pick has rarely had a chance to play in Edmonton’s top six, instead being deployed in limited minutes including time on the fourth line.  The end result was a pedestrian nine points in 38 games.  But Holloway was a bit more impactful in the playoffs, picking up five goals in 25 contests, giving him a bit of a boost heading into negotiations.

Again, they’re not going to break the bank with an offer sheet but they don’t have to sign a pricey deal in order to put Edmonton into a bind.  Let’s say a team signs Broberg to an offer sheet at the top of the lowest threshold that yields compensation.  That would be a $2.29MM price tag with a third-round pick going the other way.  (Note that the signing team must have their own third-round selection, they can’t use another team’s.)

A one-year offer at that number is by no means a crazy gamble to take for a team looking to add some upside on the back end.  That’s a more than reasonable price, both in terms of salary and draft pick compensation.  It’s safe to assume that $2.29MM is a fair bit higher than what’s currently budgeted for Broberg; Edmonton might be hoping for half of that.  If they match (and they almost certainly would), now their overage surpasses $2.64MM with Holloway still to sign.

Now let’s run Holloway through that same scenario, signing a one-year, $2.29MM offer sheet (with the same team after Broberg is matched or someone else).  Again, that’s a more than reasonable offer to try to get a fairly recent first-round pick at a fairly low acquisition cost.  And again, while they’d be a near lock to match, doing so then pushes their overage to $4.93MM.

While Kane potentially starting on LTIR would allow them to narrowly squeak under the cap to start the season, they’d be forced to carry a maximum of one extra skater for that time and then need to cut nearly $5MM upon Kane’s return.  That’s a task that’s much easier said than done in-season without taking away a core player.

If Broberg and/or Holloway were to sign a multi-year offer sheet where the compensation would push into the next threshold, we’d be looking at more than $2.29MM and less than $4.58MM with the compensation being a second-round selection.  We’ve already seen what offers at the lower end of that range could do, going higher would put them in more of a bind, making it harder to keep their team intact while matching the offer.

Again, this is something that is unlikely to happen and even if it did, Edmonton would almost certainly match.  But if a team is looking to wreak some havoc on a rival’s cap structure, this is one way to try to do it, assuming they could get the player to put pen to paper on an offer sheet.

Minor Transactions: 8/3/24

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It’s unlikely that there will be considerable activity on the NHL transactions front at this point of the summer but some of their affiliates have been busy in recent days.  Here’s a rundown of those moves and any news on former NHL players.

  • Free agent winger Nick Swaney has signed a one-year deal with AHL Chicago, per a team announcement (Twitter link). The 26-year-old spent the last four years in Minnesota’s system but was limited to just seven games due to injuries last season.  Swaney had 30 points in 48 AHL contests in 2022-23, resulting in him making his NHL debut as well.
  • Former NHL blueliner Joe Morrow is sticking around in England as he has re-signed with EIHL Manchester, per a team release. The 31-year-old played in 162 NHL games over parts of five seasons with Boston, Montreal, and Winnipeg, collecting 32 points.  Last season with the Storm, Morrow had 27 points.  He has had somewhat of a nomadic journey since leaving North America, spending time in Belarus, Finland, Kazakhstan, Russia, Switzerland, and now England.
  • Nick Jones, who spent the last four seasons on Winnipeg’s AHL team, has opted for a change of scenery as Vlci Zilina of the Slovak Extraliga announced on their Instagram page that they’ve inked the winger to a one-year deal. The 28-year-old had 16 points in 47 games with the Moose last season but now qualifies for the lower tier of veteran status with more than 260 career AHL appearances (but below the main veteran threshold of 320) which likely limited his North American options this summer.

This post will be updated throughout the day.

Stuart Skinner Changes Agents

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Oilers goaltender Stuart Skinner will enter the second season of a three-year bridge deal in 2024-25 on a contract that carries a $2.6MM AAV.  Accordingly, he’s still a year away from becoming eligible to discuss an extension.  However, that hasn’t stopped the netminder from changing representation as Alpha Hockey’s Ray Petkau announced (Twitter link) that his agency is now representing Skinner.

It has been an eventful couple of years for the 25-year-old.  In his first full NHL season, Skinner made the All-Rookie team while posting a 2.75 GAA and a .913 SV% in 50 regular season games, taking over as the starter from Jack Campbell.  That helped earn him the three-year deal from then-GM Ken Holland.  Skinner also got the bulk of the workload in the 2023 postseason, putting him in a good position to be leaned on as the undisputed starter for 2023-24.

While Skinner played big minutes like a true starter last season, it wasn’t exactly easy.  Through the first two months of the season, he posted a save percentage of just .881, resulting in Calvin Pickard starting to see regular NHL action for the first time in several years.  However, he was much better when the calendar flipped to 2024, posting a .914 SV% from January on.  Skinner then followed that up with a 2.45 GAA and a .901 SV% in 23 playoff starts before falling to Florida in the Stanley Cup Final.

At this point, it’s fair to suggest that Skinner has boosted his stock beyond his $3MM required qualifying offer in 2026.  The goal now will be to play more consistently and show that he’s worth starters’ money (more than double his current AAV) on a long-term deal.  Regardless of when discussions for that next deal start, it’ll be someone different handling the negotiations on Skinner’s end this time around.

Hurricanes Have A Decision To Make With Their Second Buyout Window

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On Monday, the Hurricanes avoided salary arbitration with restricted free agent Martin Necas, inking him to a two-year, $13MM contract.  He was their only player to file so with that case now settled, a short-term second buyout window has opened up.

As a refresher, teams get their second buyout window once a team’s arbitration cases have been resolved.  It opens up 72 hours after signing and lasts for 48 hours (meaning time is nearly up for Carolina to consider this).  The only contracts that can be bought out in this window are for players with cap hits higher than $4MM and the player had to have been on the team’s roster at the last trade deadline.

At first glance, the idea of using the window might not make much sense.  After all, they have $6.44MM in cap space, per PuckPedia, an amount that is higher than most teams.

However, it’s a misleading figure as they still have restricted free agent Seth Jarvis to re-sign; the winger wasn’t eligible for arbitration.  The 22-year-old is coming off a breakout year, one that saw him record 33 goals and 34 assists in 81 regular season games before adding nine more points in 11 playoff contests.  A first-round pick in 2020, it’s fair to say that the Hurricanes envision Jarvis as being a core piece of their long-term future.

Generally, Jarvis is the type of player that they’d like to sign to a max-term eight-year agreement, buying an additional four years of team control.  However, coming off the year he had, it’s quite likely that such an agreement would cost more than what they have in cap room.  For the price tag to come in around $6MM, it would likely need to be a three-year bridge agreement.  So if GM Eric Tulsky wants to sign Jarvis for that long, he’ll need to create some cap space.

One way to do that is in this second window where one potential candidate stands out, Jesperi Kotkaniemi.  He has not lived up to his third-overall draft billing and is coming off his most disappointing season, one that saw him notch 12 goals and 15 assists in 79 games while logging only 12:59 per game.  That’s not a great return on a $4.82MM AAV, especially when that contract runs through the 2029-30 season.

Typically, a buyout on that expensive and long of a contract would make no sense.  But because Kotkaniemi is only 24, the buyout cost is one one-third, not the standard two-thirds.  Accordingly, the buyout would break down as follows:

2024-25 to 2026-27: $835K per season
2027-28 to 2029-30: $455K per season
2030-31 to 2035-36: $835K per season

That means that a Kotkaniemi buyout would save the Hurricanes $3.985MM, bringing their cap space total to $10.425MM which is ample space to give Jarvis a max-term extension while giving them enough flexibility to afford a replacement roster player for Kotkaniemi.

Are there other ways to open up that cap space?  Of course; they could look to the trade market and try to find a way to shed salary that way.  And let’s face it, the prospect of paying Kotkaniemi until 2036 not to play for them is far from appealing.  Frankly, it would be a surprise if they went this route.  But if they want to work out a long-term deal with Jarvis and need to free up the money, this is one route they can go but only for a few more hours.

Free Agent Profile: Oliver Kylington

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Now more than a month into free agency, pretty much all of the top talents are off the board.  However, there are a handful of intriguing players still available, one of whom is defenseman Oliver Kylington.

It has been a series of ups and downs for the 27-year-old for the past three seasons, to put it lightly.  In 2021-22, he had a breakout year.  After showing flashes of upside in the past without much consistency, Kylington was able to put together a consistent showing, picking up 31 points in 73 games while logging over 18 minutes per night, good for fourth among Calgary blueliners.

While he improved, he also wasn’t progressing to the point of being a high-end piece, so Flames management saw fit to give Kylington what amounted to a second bridge contract, a two-year, $5MM agreement that walked him right to UFA eligibility.  It was a move that gave them a bit of cap flexibility while hedging against him taking a step back.  Meanwhile, had Kylington continued his progression, he’d have been well-positioned to cash in on the open market.

Of course, it didn’t quite happen that way.  Kylington missed the entire 2022-23 campaign for mental health reasons; that also carried over into last season before he eventually returned to the Flames in January.

Upon returning, Calgary understandably eased him in.  After averaging more than 18 minutes a night in his last season, it took him until the 13th game to reach that mark.  Overall, Kylington played in 33 games, notching three goals and five assists while logging 17:15 per contest.  Those numbers don’t exactly jump off the table which undoubtedly hurt his case heading into free agency.

Stats

2023-24: 33 GP, 3 G, 5 A, 8 PTS, -6, 12 PIMS, 17:15 ATOI, 48.7 CF%
Career: 201 GP, 17 G, 38 A, 55 PTS, +24, 52 PIMS, 15:39 ATOI, 50.7 CF%

Potential Suitors

The possible fits for Kylington come down to a couple of types of teams.  If he’s looking for playing time, trying to land with a weaker team that can give him a chance at being a fourth defender would be the way to go with the hopes of rebuilding some value.  Alternatively, he could elect to try to join more of a contending team and play more of a limited role but hope that being in a winning environment will help in the long run.

In the East, Pittsburgh currently has five regular defensemen before things turn to a variety of depth players and question marks.  Bringing in Kylington would at least give them a sixth proven option while they have ample cap space to fit him in.  Carolina has Alexander Nikishin coming but he’s still a year away.  Kylington could be a depth option that helps bridge the gap.  Meanwhile, the Rangers are currently set to have Zachary Jones on their third pairing.  If they’re not comfortable with that, Kylington could be a viable piece to fit on their third pairing.  However, he’d have to take a pay cut to fill that spot with New York being largely capped out.

Out West, San Jose has been adding some short-term veterans in an effort to improve their competitiveness and Kylington would at least raise the floor at the back of their blueline.  Over time, he could push his way into a bigger role as well.  If Ryan Suter’s addition in St. Louis wasn’t a hedge against Torey Krug’s injury, Kylington could serve as a depth replacement and injury insurance.  While a reunion in Calgary may seem unlikely at this point, there were extension discussions back in June so evidently, there was at least some mutual interest in a new deal with the Flames not that long ago.

Projected Contract

Kylington narrowly missed out on our Top 50 UFA list, checking in two spots below the cut-off.  Last month, the expectation was that Kylington was hoping to land a two-year deal a little above the $2.5MM AAV he had on his now-expired contract.  At this point, achieving both seems unlikely; a one-year agreement is now the likeliest outcome while there aren’t many viable options that can afford Kylington at that price point.  Something closer to the $1.5MM mark would give him some opportunities that otherwise might not come about.  That would be a disappointment based on his early expectations but at this stage of the game, few get the types of contracts they were originally seeking.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

KHL Notes: Blais, Barabanov, Miftakhov

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With NHL interest not being to his liking, it appears as if free agent winger Sammy Blais is considering options in the KHL, according to Metaratings’ Dmitry Levin.  The 28-year-old had a breakout showing in 2022-23, notching 25 points in 71 games, the bulk of which came after being reacquired by St. Louis; he had 20 points in 31 contests down the stretch that year.  However, Blais wasn’t able to carry over that success into last season as injuries and ineffectiveness limited him to just 53 games where he had only one goal and six assists along with 194 hits in 9:41 of action.  From a longer-term standpoint, the idea of Blais going overseas where he can play a bigger role and work on his offensive game makes some sense in the hopes of trying to get back to North America with a better market than he appears to have now.

Other KHL news:

  • Earlier this week, UFA winger Alexander Barabanov signed a two-year deal with Ak Bars Kazan but it wasn’t for a lack of NHL interest. His agent Yuri Nikolaev told AllHockey.ru that he had NHL options on the table but that they didn’t suit him.  Speculatively, that’s likely to mean that teams were coming in with low-cost offers (or even tryout agreements) following a rough year that saw him record just four goals and nine assists in 46 games with San Jose, well below the 47 points in 68 games he put up in 2022-23.
  • Former Tampa Bay goalie prospect Amir Miftakhov wasn’t a fan of playing in the AHL early in his career, which eventually led to a mutual contract termination. However, he might be open to a change of heart, telling AllHockey.ru that he would be ready to play in the AHL moving forward.  The 24-year-old was limited to just nine KHL appearances last season but has a 2.20 GAA and a .919 SV% over five years at that level.  He’s under contract with Ak Bars Kazan through the upcoming season but if he’s still willing to go to the AHL when free agency opens up, he’ll likely garner some NHL interest at that time.

No Extension Talks Planned For Stars And Evgenii Dadonov

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Veteran winger Evgenii Dadonov proved to be a valuable addition for the Stars at the 2022 trade deadline, adding another offensive threat to a deep roster.  He made a good enough impression to land a two-year, $4.5MM extension a few days before free agency opened up last year.

As he’s now in the final year of that agreement, Dadonov is now technically extension-eligible.  However, it doesn’t appear as if he’s interested in holding any extension talks, telling Sport-Express’ Mikhail Skryl that he wants to wait and see what happens after the season.

The 35-year-old wasn’t quite as impactful offensively as he was when he was first acquired.  He missed 31 games due to a lower-body injury; his 51 games played were his lowest since the 2011-12 campaign.  Nevertheless, Dadonov was still a capable secondary contributor, notching 12 goals and 11 assists while logging a little over 13 minutes a night in what was a largely bottom-six role.  He chipped in with seven points in 19 playoff appearances before Dallas was eliminated in the Western Conference Final.

At this point, it’s likely that Dadonov will be deployed in a similar role in 2024-25 with the Stars returning the bulk of their forward group from the playoffs.  Accordingly, he could be in line for more limited playing time once again compared to what he played with Florida, Ottawa, and Vegas in recent years.

To that end, Dadonov didn’t rule out the possibility of returning to Russia after this coming season.  Going back overseas is something he’s already done once as he left for the KHL in 2012, only returning in 2017.  Finishing up his career back home in a role he’s more accustomed to could certainly be tempting.  At this point, Dadonov would only say that he expects to field both NHL and KHL interest next summer but it appears the prospect of leaving the NHL is already on his mind.

Slow-Developing Trade Market For Patrik Laine

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Late last month, Blue Jackets winger Patrik Laine exited the NHL/NHLPA Player Assistance Program which allows for there to be contact between Laine and Columbus.  With a known desire for a change of scenery, the team has granted permission for the winger to talk to other teams as well.

However, there hasn’t been much interest in Laine’s services just yet.  GM Don Waddell told Brian Hedger of the Columbus Dispatch earlier this week that at this point, only one team has contacted him to express interest in acquiring his services.  Given where we are in the offseason, Waddell isn’t particularly surprised nor does he expect the situation to change in the near future:

At this time of the year, people are less responsive. So, I don’t really know. I think it’s going to play out for a while.

Laine’s situation is well-known at this point.  He played in just 18 games last season before being shut down due to shoulder surgery in December; he entered the assistance program a little more than a month after that.

The 26-year-old has been a high-end scoring threat in the past and is only two years removed from recording 56 points in as many games; he came close to the point-per-game mark in an injury-marred 2022-23 campaign as well.  However, Laine struggled in his limited action last season, notching just six goals and three assists.  Suffice it to say, this isn’t a situation where Columbus could be trading him at peak value.

Further complicating things is his contract, one which carries an AAV of $8.7MM for the next two years while his actual cash payout each year is $9.1MM (though $2MM of that has likely already been paid in the form of a signing bonus for this year).  Very few teams have that much cap space to absorb the contract outright.  Waddell has indicated his preference would be to make more of a pure ‘hockey trade’ but that might be hard to come by at this point.  To that end, the GM acknowledged that some retention might be required to ultimately push a move over the finish line:

We might end up eating some money. If I wanted to eat half, I could’ve traded him by now, but that’s not my first choice.

With rookie camps about six weeks away, executives will likely try to take some time away before getting ready for training camps.  Based on the tepid interest thus far, there’s a good chance that’s already the case.  As a result, while Laine is now free to speak to potentially interested teams, it looks as if it will take some time for a potential market to materialize.

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