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Salary Cap Deep Dive: Philadelphia Flyers

October 3, 2024 at 9:00 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 5 Comments

Navigating the salary cap is one of the most important tasks for a front office.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t often see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2024-25 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of PuckPedia.  We’re currently covering the Metropolitan Division, next up is the Flyers.

Philadelphia Flyers

Current Cap Hit: $84,829,763 (below the $88MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Tyson Foerster (one year, $863K)
F Matvei Michkov (three years, $950K)

Potential Bonuses
Michkov: $3.3MM

Michkov was able to get out of his contract two years early to the surprise of many, enabling him to come to North America this season.  Projected to be a key cog of their rebuild, he’s likely someone they’ll want to sign long-term by the time this deal is up.  From a bonus perspective, he has $1MM in ‘A’ bonuses, four at $250K apiece.  If he plays the prominent role it looks like he will this season, those could be reachable although the ‘B’ bonus is highly unlikely to be met.  Foerster’s first full NHL campaign was a solid one with 20 goals.  That said, he’d need a significant breakout to bypass a bridge deal, especially with this management group generally leaning toward using those.  In that case, something around the $3MM mark is where his next contract might land.

Signed Through 2024-25, Non-Entry-Level

F Noah Cates ($2.625MM, RFA)
F Morgan Frost ($2.1MM, RFA)
D Erik Johnson ($1MM, UFA)
G Cal Petersen ($5MM, UFA)
D Cam York ($1.6MM, RFA)

Cates was someone who received a recent bridge contract, a move that looks wise on Philadelphia’s part given his struggles last season.  He’ll need to get back to at least his rookie-season numbers (38 points in 82 games) to have a shot at a qualifying offer when he’ll have arbitration rights as well.  Frost was no stranger to the rumor mill last season but still wound up with his second straight season of more than 40 points.  If he hangs around that number again, he could double his $2.4MM qualifying offer on his next deal, one that likely will buy out some UFA-eligible years.

York finished off last season on a high note, providing plenty of optimism heading into this season.  Yet another player who is on a bridge agreement, if he plays at the level that he finished at last year, tripling this price tag wouldn’t be out of the question while quadrupling it on a long-term deal could be doable as well.  Johnson was picked up at the deadline to give them a serviceable veteran at the back of their lineup and was extended to fill that role for this season.  He’ll be going year to year from here and considering he’s best served as a sixth defender, it’s unlikely he could command much more than this next time around.

Petersen has already cleared waivers and he’ll once again play in Lehigh Valley where he’ll carry a slightly reduced cap hit of $3.85MM.  It’s safe to say he won’t come anywhere near that next time around; a six-figure deal is more likely.

Signed Through 2025-26

F Bobby Brink ($1.5MM, RFA)
F Nicolas Deslauriers ($1.75MM, UFA)
D Jamie Drysdale ($2.3MM, RFA)
G Samuel Ersson ($1.45MM, RFA)
G Ivan Fedotov ($3.25MM, UFA)
F Scott Laughton ($3MM, UFA)
F Ryan Poehling ($1.9MM, UFA)
D Yegor Zamula ($1.7MM, RFA)

When Laughton signed this contract at the 2021 trade deadline (taking himself out of trade talks in the process), it seemed like somewhat of a team-friendly deal at the time.  It still is today.  The 30-year-old isn’t the biggest offensive threat (only reaching 40 points once in his career) but is a solid defensive player.  He should be able to add at least $1MM to this next time out on another multi-year agreement.  Poehling accepted this deal as a midseason extension back in January, giving him a bit of stability after starting the year on his third team in as many seasons.  He’s coming off his best offensive output (28 points) but will need to show that’s repeatable if he wants to get into that next tier of money.

Deslauriers got more money and term than many expected for an enforcer but his track record of scoring a bit more than a typical tough guy helped his marketability.  That’s a harder sell now at this point of his career coming off a one-goal, four-point campaign.  He still can fill that role but with the decline in production and the fact he’ll be 35 when this contract expires, it’s hard to see him getting this on his next deal.  Brink is yet another player on a bridge deal after a season that saw him establish himself as a regular.  He’ll have arbitration rights next time out and between that and ideally two more years of being a full-timer, he should at least get past $2MM, obviously more if he becomes more of a contributor offensively.

Drysdale was the key piece coming to Philadelphia in the Cutter Gauthier trade but as was the case at times in Anaheim, injuries limited him.  He’s someone who has shown flashes of being an above-average player at the NHL level and if he puts it together and stays healthy, pushing past $6MM isn’t out of the question.  But, if injuries continue to be an issue, a second one-year bridge agreement might be the safest play, one that would eclipse $3MM with arbitration rights.  Zamula inked this bridge deal in early July after locking down a regular role last season.  He’ll need to at least move past being more of a fifth or sixth defender over the next two seasons since his offensive game is somewhat limited (which will hurt him in an arbitration hearing).  Notably, his qualifying offer in 2026 is only $1.4MM since signing bonus money doesn’t count in calculating those offers.

After a long battle to get him to North America, Fedotov debuted late in the season (although he struggled in limited action) and quickly received this two-year agreement, a sign of the faith the team has in him.  He’ll need to establish himself as at least a 1B type of goaltender to hang around this price tag but if he plays up to expectations, this deal will be a team-friendly one for Philadelphia.  The early extension to Ersson raised some eyebrows but after becoming their starter, it’s a move that looks great for the Flyers already.  He will have one RFA-eligible season remaining once this deal expires and if he’s still in the starting role, it stands to reason that his next contract should be at least three times this one.

Signed Through 2026-27

D Ryan Ellis ($6.25MM, UFA)
F Garnet Hathaway ($2.375MM in 2024-25, $2.4MM in 2025-26 and 2026-27, UFA)
D Rasmus Ristolainen ($5.1MM, UFA)

Hathaway had a good first season for the Flyers while splitting time between the third and fourth lines.  Rather than see what his market value would be this coming summer, he accepted an early extension at pretty much the same money.  That gets him under contract through his age-35 season and at that point, it would be tough predicting that he’d get more than that if he’s still in that role.  Ellis, meanwhile, will remain on LTIR, giving the Flyers the ability to spend above the cap if needed.

Ristolainen remains one of the more polarizing defensemen in the league.  He’s someone who has played big minutes in all situations in the past and his contract is one where the price tag suggests that he should be in a second or third role.  However, that wasn’t the case last year.  His ice time – when healthy – was much more limited than usual and he responded with a decent performance in that role.  It’s probably not enough to give him any standalone trade value but if it’s a case where less is more for Ristolainen, the Flyers could still get at least a bit of value on this contract, albeit on an above-market price point relative to last season’s ice time.

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Signed Through 2027-28 Or Longer

F Sean Couturier ($7.75MM through 2029-30)
F Joel Farabee ($5MM through 2027-28)
F Travis Konecny ($5.5MM in 2024-25, $8.75MM from 2025-26 through 2032-33)
D Travis Sanheim ($6.25MM through 2030-31)
D Nick Seeler ($2.7MM through 2027-28)
F Owen Tippett ($6.2MM through 2031-32)

Konecny has turned the corner offensively over the last two seasons.  He averaged just over a point per game in 2022-23 (though he missed 22 games) and then followed that up with career bests in goals (33) and points (68) last season, giving him some leverage in negotiations.  His new deal is on the high side for someone who hasn’t reached 70 points yet but there’s an expectation that he should reach that point soon.  If he can find another gear offensively, this should hold up relatively well.  Otherwise, it’ll be an overpayment.

When Couturier signed this contract, he was coming off a quality season offensively (although he missed nearly half of it due to injury).  The hope was that he could at least maintain an above-average level of offensive production for a few years and that coupled with his strong defensive game would give them at least a few seasons of value on this deal.  That hasn’t happened so far.  In the first three years, he has missed more games than he’s played and last season (when he was largely healthy), he struggled, was moved down the lineup, and became the first captain to be healthy scratched (not for rest) in a decade.  He’s still a serviceable player, no doubt, but this price tag is on the high side for someone trending toward being more of a middle-six piece than a top-liner.

Farabee signed his old deal when Chuck Fletcher was still in charge and considering the promise he showed in his first two seasons, the move made sense.  His development has had some ups and downs since then but after putting up 50 points last year, the contract is trending towards a team-friendly one if he even maintains that type of production.  Tippett, meanwhile, is one of the few long-term deals given out by GM Daniel Briere.  Power forwards, given their level of scarcity, tend to get bigger money relative to their production and that’s where things fall for him now.  But he’s not far off the 30-goal mark and at 25, there’s still a runway to improvement production-wise.  It might be a short-term slight overpayment but in the end, this should be a team-friendly pact fairly quickly.

Sanheim took a big step forward offensively last season, one that skews the evaluation of this deal to an extent as he struggled in that department in the first year of the contract in 2022-23.  Philadelphia is counting on him to play big minutes, especially on the penalty kill and that isn’t going to be in question moving forward.  If he can stay at this level (44 points) offensively, it’ll be a very team-friendly deal quickly.  If he reverts to 2022-23 (17 points), it’ll be an overpayment.  The likeliest outcome is that his production lands somewhere in the middle, making it a pretty fair deal overall.  Seeler’s price tag seemed a bit high for someone strictly on the third pairing although some of the comparable contracts handed out in free agency arguably make this a team-friendly pact relative to those.  If he can have the same impact as last year moving forward, they’ll do alright with this contract.

Buyouts

F Cam Atkinson ($2.358MM in 2024-25, $1.758MM in 2025-26)
D Tony DeAngelo ($1.667MM in 2024-25)

Retained Salary Transactions

F Kevin Hayes ($3.571MM through 2025-26)

Pending Grievances

F Ryan Johansen

The Flyers terminated Johansen’s deal citing a material breach but didn’t go into any specifics from there.  The NHLPA has formally filed a grievance to contest it.  For the time being, his $4MM cap charge (and Nashville’s $4MM) is off their books but all or part of that could be restored pending the outcome of the hearing.  Depending on what happens there, that could materially affect their cap situation for this season.

Best Value: (non-entry-level) Ersson
Worst Value: Couturier

Looking Ahead

For now, the Flyers enter the season with ample cap space and flexibility pending the Johansen situation.  If it holds (or there’s a lower-cost settlement), Philadelphia should be able to absorb any of the bonuses that Michkov earns, avoiding the overage penalty like they have this season ($245K) while having some flexibility for in-season movement.  If Johansen’s cap hit gets restored, they at least have the Ellis LTIR room available to them, giving them some security on that front although they’d face the bonus overage if they can’t get out from under it.

Philadelphia already has over $73MM in commitments for 2025-26 on the books although that leaves them ample space to re-sign their pending RFAs without much issue.  2026-27 sees them with only $51.35MM in commitments so that might be the summer that Briere will be able to take a bigger swing at improving the roster, one that should coincide with them exiting their current rebuild.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Philadelphia Flyers| Pro Hockey Rumors Originals| Salary Cap Deep Dive 2024

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Snapshots: Knies, Brossoit, Barlow, Gustafsson

October 3, 2024 at 7:59 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose Leave a Comment

While the Maple Leafs have been working on (and might be nearing) an extension with pending UFA defenseman Jake McCabe, meaningful talks haven’t started with another one of their 2025 free agents.  TSN’s Darren Dreger reports in their latest Insider Trading segment that there hasn’t been any meaningful dialogue regarding a new deal for winger Matthew Knies, who will be a restricted free agent next summer.  The 21-year-old had a solid rookie season in 2023-24, collecting 15 goals and 20 assists in 80 games and appears to be one of their younger building blocks up front.  That said, it wouldn’t be surprising if at least one of the two sides has indicated that they’d rather wait to see how things go this season to get a better sense of his value before kickstarting talks later on.

Elsewhere around the hockey world:

  • While the Blackhawks won’t have their newest goaltender available for the start of the season, it appears he won’t be out for too long. Head coach Luke Richardson told reporters including Ben Pope of the Chicago Sun-Times (Twitter link) that Laurent Brossoit is on track to return roughly midway through their season-opening four-game road trip to start the season, meaning he might only miss a couple of games.  The 31-year-old posted a 2.00 GAA with a .927 SV% in 23 games for Winnipeg last season, earning Brossoit a two-year, $6.6MM contract on the opening day of free agency this past summer.
  • After requesting a trade earlier in the week, Jets prospect Colby Barlow is indeed on the move. OHL Oshawa announced that they have acquired the 19-year-old forward from Owen Sound in exchange for two players and six draft picks.  Barlow was the 18th overall selection in 2023 following a 46-goal campaign with the Attack.  However, his offensive numbers dipped last season although he still managed 40 goals and 58 points in 50 games before getting into three AHL contests.  Barlow is too young to play there full-time this season but will be AHL-eligible next year, making this a pure one-year rental for the Generals.
  • Still with the Jets, Murat Ates of The Athletic relays (Twitter link) that forward David Gustafsson is listed as day-to-day due to a lower-body injury sustained in Wednesday’s game against Calgary. The 24-year-old played in 39 games with Winnipeg last season, notching three goals and four assists.  He inked a two-year, $1.67MM one-way contract with the Jets back in July.

Chicago Blackhawks| OHL| Snapshots| Toronto Maple Leafs| Winnipeg Jets Colby Barlow| David Gustafsson| Laurent Brossoit| Matthew Knies

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Gabriel Bourque Announces Retirement

October 3, 2024 at 6:57 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 1 Comment

Veteran winger Gabriel Bourque has decided to call it a career.  The 34-year-old confirmed to Ciel 103’s Kevin Beaule that he has retired after 13 professional seasons.

Bourque was originally drafted back in 2009 by Nashville, going in the fifth round.  He spent parts of six seasons with the Preds before heading to Colorado for three more years, then Winnipeg for one.  He didn’t play at all in 2020-21 but opted to continue playing after that, spending the last three seasons suiting up with AHL Laval, Montreal’s affiliate but was limited to just 11 points in 43 games in 2023-24.

All told, Bourque ends his playing days with 413 career NHL appearances between the Predators, Avalanche, and Jets.  He collected 40 goals, 63 assists, and 736 hits in those outings in a little over 12 minutes a night.  He currently sits 44th in NHL games played from the 2009 draft class, a pretty good outcome for a fifth-round selection.

Meanwhile, Bourque was more productive in the minors.  He saw AHL action in parts of nine years, tallying 65 goals and 104 assists in 364 games over that span.  He won’t be walking away from hockey entirely, however, as he’s now an assistant coach at College Lionel-Groulx.

Retirements Gabriel Bourque

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Submit Your Questions For The #PHRMailbag

October 3, 2024 at 6:26 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 27 Comments

Teams are in the process of getting their rosters set with some tough cuts to be made before the regular season officially gets underway.  With that in mind, it’s a good time to open up the mailbag.

Our last mailbag was split into two segments.  The first discussed the recent usage of deferred salary in contracts and if that’s a mechanism we should expect to see more often, RFA contract projections for Cole Perfetti and Lucas Raymond (coming in slightly below the actual amounts for both), if Anaheim can move two long-term veterans, and more.  Among the topics in the second was my annual prediction for a breakout player, discussing Calgary’s potentially tradable veterans, and what to expect from Connor Bedard’s sophomore season.

You can submit a question by using #PHRMailbag on Twitter/X or by leaving a comment down below.  The mailbag will run on the weekend.

Uncategorized PHR Mailbag

27 comments

Salary Cap Deep Dive: New York Rangers

September 30, 2024 at 9:00 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 2 Comments

Navigating the salary cap is one of the most important tasks for a front office.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t often see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2024-25 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of PuckPedia.  We’re currently covering the Metropolitan Division, next up is the Rangers.

New York Rangers

Current Cap Hit: $87,376,524 (below the $88MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F William Cuylle (one year, $828K)
F Adam Edstrom (one year, $847K)
F Matt Rempe (one year, $820K)

Potential Bonuses
Cuylle: $57.5K (games played)

Cuylle’s first full NHL season was a solid one for someone who primarily played on the fourth line.  It’s unlikely that he’ll play much higher up this year and with New York’s long-term cap situation, it’s safe to say they’ll be looking for a bridge deal, one that should check in around the $1.4MM mark.  Edstrom is someone who could bounce back and forth this season and in that case, New York will probably ask him to accept closer to the $775K minimum in exchange for a one-way contract.  Rempe quickly became a fan favorite for his pugilistic skills but will need to be trusted to play more than six minutes a night if he’s to push for any sort of pricey second contract.  As things stand, he’s likely to land around $1MM on a bridge agreement if he stays up full-time in 2024-25.

Signed Through 2024-25, Non-Entry-Level

D Zachary Jones (813K, RFA)
F Kaapo Kakko ($2.4MM, RFA)
F Alexis Lafreniere ($2.325MM, RFA)
D Ryan Lindgren ($4.5MM, UFA)
D K’Andre Miller ($3.872MM, RFA)
G Jonathan Quick ($1.275MM, UFA)
D Chad Ruhwedel ($775K, UFA)
G Igor Shesterkin ($5.67MM, UFA)
F Reilly Smith ($3.75MM, UFA)*
F Jimmy Vesey ($800K, UFA)

*-Pittsburgh is retaining an additional $1.25MM of Smith’s contract.

Potential Bonuses
Quick: $25K (20 starts plus a save percentage of .915 or more)

Smith was acquired on the opening day of free agency as New York’s free agent plans seemingly didn’t pan out.  On the surface, they probably only wanted someone on a one-year deal so the pivot to this made sense.  Smith is coming off a down year with Pittsburgh but is only a year removed from a 56-point effort.  If he can get back to that, he could maintain his full $5MM salary for a few more years but the likelier scenario is something in the $4MM range.  Kakko accepted his qualifying offer early to take one more run at things in New York.  Until he can become more than a third liner, however, it’s hard to foresee him getting much more than this.  Vesey, meanwhile, had one of his best years last season and a repeat performance could allow him to potentially double his price tag but the Rangers will need to keep that salary slot closer to where it is now.

Lafreniere is one of the more intriguing pending restricted free agents from the 2025 class.  After struggling through his entry-level contract (resulting in this bridge deal), he was much more impactful last season, showing the skill that made him a top pick before following it up with a strong playoff run.  Still just 22, there’s cause for optimism that Lafreniere could still beat his numbers from a year ago which will only send the price tag up even more.  Assuming that he can at least maintain his 2023-24 output, Lafreniere’s next contract should push past the $6MM mark at a minimum; it wouldn’t be surprising to see it go to a seven.

Lindgren settled for a one-year deal earlier this summer, one that will grant him unrestricted free agency at 27.  However, his offensive numbers are rather limited; he has yet to reach the 20-point mark.  That should limit him on the open market although a small raise from this price tag could be doable.  Miller is another player who had to settle for a bridge deal given New York’s cap situation at the time.  He wasn’t quite as impactful statistically last season but still played top-pairing minutes, putting him on track for a fair-sized raise.  His qualifying offer checks in at $4.546MM, already a sizable jump but he could also command $6MM or more on a long-term agreement.

Jones hasn’t been able to lock down a full-time spot in the lineup which won’t help his case in contract talks.  His qualifying offer goes up to just over $866K next summer and if he’s not more established by then, he could be a non-tender candidate with an eye on filling that spot with someone making the minimum.  Ruhwedel has been a capable seventh defender for several years now but isn’t likely to make much more than the league minimum moving forward.

While Shesterkin is coming off a quieter year by his standards, he still was one of the top netminders in the league last season and has been for the past four seasons.  Accordingly, he is believed to be looking for what would be a record-breaking contract; Carey Price ($10.5MM) is the holder of the priciest deal given to a goalie in NHL history.  Doubling his current AAV could be doable in the process.  Quick had a bounce-back year after a tough 2022-23 showing, earning himself a small raise in the process.  With Shesterkin being more of a workhorse, they will only need Quick to play 25-30 games which he should be capable of doing.  Given his age (38), it’s fair to suggest he’ll be on one-year deals from here on out.

Signed Through 2025-26

F Jonny Brodzinski ($788K, UFA)
F Artemi Panarin ($11.643MM, UFA)
D Braden Schneider ($2.2MM, RFA)
D Jacob Trouba ($8MM, UFA)

Panarin set and still holds (for now, at least) the record for the highest cap hit for a winger.  It’s hard to say the contract has been a bargain but it’s fair to say he has lived up to it so far.  Panarin has the fourth-most points of any player over the past five seasons (since he signed in New York) so they’ve gotten a solid return so far.  That said, he’ll be entering his age-35 year when his next contract starts so it’s reasonable to think the cap hit will be coming down and it will be a question of how long the deal becomes with the longer the term, the lower the AAV.  Brodzinski started last season off strong in the minors to earn a recall and never went back, earning this contract in the process.  If he stays in a depth or reserve role, it’s unlikely he’d command a big raise but even securing more one-way deals at this point of his career (he’s 31) would be a nice outcome for him.

Trouba was shopped around over the summer although no trade came to fruition.  He’s on an expensive contract for the role he fills (a third defender) but he’s still a more than capable player in that role.  Still, even if he rebounds over the next two seasons, he’ll be looking at a multi-million dollar pay cut although a multi-year pact should still be doable.  Schneider was the latest player to take a bridge contract this summer.  He has been held under 16 minutes a game in each of his first three seasons; it’s safe to say they’ll be expecting him to take a step forward in that regard.  His qualifying offer checks in at $2.64MM with arbitration rights in 2026 so if he’s still on the third pairing by then, that could be a problem.

Signed Through 2026-27

F Sam Carrick ($1MM, UFA)
F Filip Chytil ($4.438MM, UFA)
F Chris Kreider ($6.5MM, UFA)

Kreider didn’t produce much in the first season of this contract but since then, he has 127 goals over the last three years, putting him seventh among all NHL players over that span.  Given his physical playing style, it’s possible that injuries could be an issue toward the end of the deal when he’ll be 36 and potentially going year to year after that.

Chytil has battled concussion issues at times, including missing most of last season which makes him a bit of a wild card.  This is a high price tag for someone projected to play on the third line although if he’s healthy, he should be more productive than a typical third liner.  But with the injury history, it’s hard to foresee him getting this type of commitment unless he has three seasons of good health.  Carrick came over in free agency to anchor the fourth line after a good showing between Anaheim and Edmonton last season.  If he can maintain that for the next three years, a late-career raise could come his way even though he’ll be 35 on his next contract.

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Signed Through 2027-28 Or Longer

D Adam Fox ($9.5MM through 2028-29)
F Vincent Trocheck ($5.625MM through 2028-29)
F Mika Zibanejad ($8.5MM through 2029-30)

Zibanejad has had some of his best offensive seasons over the past three years and at 31 and still playing a prominent role, there’s little reason to think he’ll take a big step back on that front over the next few years.  By the time this contract ends, it’s unlikely he’ll be playing nearly 20 minutes a game but that’s not a concern that they’ll have to worry about for a while.  Trocheck has found another gear offensively since joining the Rangers two years ago and is coming off a season where he put up low-end number one center production while making considerably less than that.  That might not be maintainable over the remaining four years of the deal but even if he settles back in around the 50-point mark by then, they’ll get good value here.

Fox has been quite consistent offensively over the past three seasons, ranging between 72 and 74 points over that span, putting him fourth among NHL blueliners over that time.  He makes a bit more than the three ahead of him but sits $2MM below the top-paid rearguard league-wide.  There’s little reason to think that Fox shouldn’t be able to at least stay around that type of production for the bulk of the remainder of his contract.  While it’s unlikely he’ll set a record-breaking deal next time out (others might surpass the current benchmark by then), he could make a case to add a couple million per season on his next agreement, one that could be a max-term deal as well.

Buyouts

None

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

None

Best Value: (non-entry-level) Lafreniere
Worst Value: Trouba

Looking Ahead

As is the case with a lot of contenders this year, cap space is going to be hard to come by for the Rangers who will be hard-pressed to afford an injury recall as things stand.  With that in mind, they’ll have to get creative if they’re going to add to their roster before the March trade deadline.

The greater concern is beyond the upcoming season.  They already have more than $58MM in commitments to just 10 players for 2025-26 with Shesterkin, Miller, and Lafreniere all heading for significantly pricier contracts.  Those three alone should cost more than $20MM combined, potentially closer to $25MM if they all have big seasons.  They can afford that but that would be it for big spending while potentially needing to move Trouba out as well.  Panarin and Trouba (if he is still around) are up in 2026, giving them a bit more wiggle room at that time but things could be dicey for 2025-26 at a minimum.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

New York Rangers| Pro Hockey Rumors Originals| Salary Cap Deep Dive 2024

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Snapshots: Swayman, Benn, Gelinas, Olympics

September 30, 2024 at 7:59 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 15 Comments

Earlier today, Bruins president Cam Neely implied that the team had made a $64MM offer to restricted free agent goaltender Jeremy Swayman in an effort to get a deal done.  It would appear that this is the first that Swayman’s camp has heard of it.  SPM Sports released the following statement from Swayman’s agent Lewis Gross via various social media platforms:

Normally, I do not release statements or discuss negotiations through the media.  However, in this case, I feel I need to defend my client. At today’s press conference, $64 million was referenced. This was the first time that number was discussed in our negotiations. Prior to the press conference, no offer was made reaching that level.

We are extremely disappointed. This was not fair to Jeremy. We will take a few days to discuss where we go from here.

Earlier today, it was revealed that newly-acquired backup Joonas Korpisalo would be their opening-night starter.  Between that and now Swayman’s camp saying that they’ll take a few days to discuss next steps, it’s fair to say that this contract isn’t getting resolved for a little while longer.

Elsewhere around the hockey world:

  • The Stars won’t discuss a new contract in-season with captain Jamie Benn, relays Lia Assimakopoulos of the Dallas Morning News. Don’t interpret that as a sign that one of the sides doesn’t want to do something as GM Jim Nill indicated he approached Benn to see what he wanted to do while making it clear that he sees a spot for the veteran as long as he’s in charge.  However, Benn decided he wants to wait until after the season for any discussions.  The 35-year-old has spent his entire 15-year career in Dallas, amassing over 900 points including 60 in 82 games last season.
  • Veteran defenseman Eric Gelinas has decided to try to give it another go in North America. The AHL’s Laval Rocket announced (Twitter link) that they have invited the 33-year-old to their training camp.  Gelinas has 189 career NHL appearances under his belt, the last of which came in 2016-17.  He spent the following year in Laval before bouncing around, seeing time in Slovakia, Sweden, Switzerland, and nine games with AHL Chicago over the last six seasons.
  • The IIHF announced that they hope to add a three-on-three ice hockey tournament to the 2030 Olympics for both men’s and women’s hockey. These events would not replace the existing tournaments but would merely add to the sport’s representation, similar to three-on-three basketball at the recently-ended Summer Games.  A decision on whether those events will be added is expected in March.

Boston Bruins| Dallas Stars| IIHF| Olympics| Snapshots Eric Gelinas| Jamie Benn| Jeremy Swayman

15 comments

Waiver Wire: 9/28/24

September 29, 2024 at 1:20 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 7 Comments

09/29: All players on Saturday’s waiver wire have cleared, per Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman.

09/28: With the regular season fast approaching, activity on the waiver wire is quickly picking up.  We’ll keep tabs on who has been waived today here.  This post will be updated as more placements come in.

Calgary Flames (per Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman)

D Jonathan Aspirot
F Clark Bishop

Colorado Avalanche (per Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman)

D Wyatt Aamodt
G Kevin Mandolese
D Keaton Middleton

Nashville Predators (per Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman)

F Anthony Angello
D Kevin Gravel
F Jake Lucchini

New York Islanders (per Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman)

F Tyce Thompson

Seattle Kraken (per team announcement)

D Maxime Lajoie

Utah Hockey Club (per team announcement)

F Egor Sokolov

Vegas Golden Knights (per team announcement and Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman)

F Callahan Burke
F Grigori Denisenko
D Mason Geertsen
D Robert Hagg
F Mason Morelli
D Dysin Mayo
F Gage Quinney

Washington Capitals

F Ethen Frank
D Hardy Haman Aktell
F Alex Limoges
D Chase Priskie
F Riley Sutter

As for yesterday’s group, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reports (Twitter link) that all players cleared waivers.

Calgary Flames| Colorado Avalanche| Nashville Predators| New York Islanders| Seattle Kraken| Transactions| Utah Mammoth| Vegas Golden Knights| Waivers| Washington Capitals

7 comments

Training Camp Cuts: 9/28/24

September 28, 2024 at 5:40 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose Leave a Comment

As we reach the midway point of the preseason for most teams, coaches will want to start paring down their rosters to work with more of the main group.  Accordingly, it could be a busy weekend for cuts.  We’ll keep track of today’s cuts here.

Updated: 5:45 PM CT

Calgary Flames (per Sportsnet’s Eric Francis)

F Parker Bell (to AHL Calgary)
F Lucas Ciona (to AHL Calgary)
F Jaden Lipinski (to AHL Calgary)
F William Stromgren (to AHL Calgary)
D Joni Jurmo (to AHL Calgary)
D Jeremie Poirier (to AHL Calgary)

Chicago Blackhawks (via NHL.com’s Tracey Myers)

G Benjamin Gaudreau (released from ATO to AHL Rockford)
F Gavin Hayes (to AHL Rockford)
D D.J. King (released from PTO to AHL Rockford)
F Nick Lardis (to OHL Brantford)
F Paul Ludwinski (to AHL Rockford)
F Jalen Luypen (to AHL Rockford)
F Marcel Marcel (to AHL Rockford)
D Austin Strand (released from PTO to AHL Rockford)

Columbus Blue Jackets (per team announcement)

F Cam Butler (to AHL Cleveland)
G Pavel Cajan (released from PTO to AHL Cleveland)
D Corson Ceulemans (to AHL Cleveland)
D Cole Clayton (to AHL Cleveland)
D Samuel Knazko (to AHL Cleveland)
F Curtis Hall (released from PTO to AHL Cleveland)
G Zach Sawchenko (to AHL Cleveland)

New York Rangers (per team announcement)

F Alex Belzile (to AHL Hartford)
D Ben Harpur (to AHL Hartford)
F Jake Leschyshyn (to AHL Hartford)

Seattle Kraken (per team announcements)

D Nikolas Brouillard (to AHL Coachella Valley)
F Luke Henman (to AHL Coachella Valley)
G Niklas Kokko (to AHL Coachella Valley)
F Jani Nyman (to AHL Coachella Valley)
F Lleyton Roed (to AHL Coachella Valley)

Utah Hockey Club (per team announcements)

F Miko Matikka (to AHL Tucson)
F Owen Allard (to AHL Tucson)
F Julian Lutz (to AHL Tucson)
F Noel Nordh (to AHL Tucson)
D Artem Duda (to AHL Tucson)
G Anson Thornton (to AHL Tucson)
G Jaxson Stauber (to AHL Tucson)
F Cole Beaudoin (to OHL Barrie)
D Terrell Goldsmith (to WHL Tri-City)
D Justin Kipkie (to WHL Victoria)

Vancouver Canucks (per team announcement)

D Sawyer Mynio (to WHL Seattle)

Vegas Golden Knights (per team announcement)

D Jake Bischoff (released from PTO to AHL Henderson)
F Braeden Bowman (released from PTO to AHL Henderson)
F Jakub Brabenec (to AHL Henderson)
F Mathieu Cataford (to QMJHL Rimouski)
D Daniil Chayka (to AHL Henderson)
D Artur Cholach (to AHL Henderson)
D Joe Fleming (to AHL Henderson)
F Ben Hemmerling (to AHL Henderson)
D Brandon Hickey (released from PTO to AHL Henderson)
F Bear Hughes (released from PTO to AHL Henderson)
F Jett Jones (released from PTO to AHL Henderson)
G Carl Lindbom (to AHL Henderson)
D Samuel Mayer (released from PTO to AHL Henderson)
F Riley McKay (released from PTO to AHL Henderson)
F Mitch McLain (released from PTO to AHL Henderson)
F Simon Pinard (released from PTO to AHL Henderson)
F Matyas Sapovaliv (to AHL Henderson)
G Isaiah Saville (to AHL Henderson)
F Sloan Stanick (released from ATO to AHL Henderson)
D Christoffer Sedoff (to AHL Henderson)
F Kai Uchacz (released from ATO to AHL Henderson)
G Jesper Vikman (to AHL Henderson)

This post will be updated throughout the day.

Chicago Blackhawks| Columbus Blue Jackets| New York Rangers| Seattle Kraken| Transactions| Utah Mammoth| Vancouver Canucks| Vegas Golden Knights

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Salary Cap Deep Dive: New York Islanders

September 28, 2024 at 4:00 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 2 Comments

Navigating the salary cap is one of the most important tasks for a front office.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t often see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2024-25 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of PuckPedia.  We’re currently covering the Metropolitan Division, next up is the Islanders.

New York Islanders

Current Cap Hit: $88,000,000 (at the $88MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Maxim Tsyplakov (one year, $950K)

Potential Bonuses:
Tsyplakov: $1MM

The Isles beat out a long list of suitors to secure Tsyplakov’s services after a breakout year in the KHL that saw him score 31 goals.  He projects to play in the bottom six, however, meaning he shouldn’t have a goal total anywhere near there.  If Tsyplakov stays in that role, he likely won’t reach any of his ‘A’ bonuses either.  Worth noting is that he will be arbitration-eligible next summer even though he’s exiting his entry-level deal.

Signed Through 2024-25, Non-Entry-Level

D Samuel Bolduc ($800K, RFA)
D Noah Dobson ($4MM, RFA)
F Hudson Fasching ($775K, UFA)
F Simon Holmstrom ($850K, RFA)
F Brock Nelson ($6MM, UFA)
F Kyle Palmieri ($5MM, UFA)
D Mike Reilly ($1.25MM, UFA)
D Alexander Romanov ($2.5MM, RFA)
F Oliver Wahlstrom ($1MM, RFA)

Nelson has been somewhat of a late bloomer.  His last three seasons have been the best of his career, reaching at least 34 goals and 59 points in each of them.  If he can extend that streak to four, he could land a small increase, an outcome that didn’t seem likely early on in this deal.  Palmieri didn’t fare well over his first two seasons in New York but did return to form last season, matching his career-high in goals with 30.  He’ll need to stay around that level to have a chance to stay around this price tag as three seasons between 21 and 33 points before 2023-24 will hurt him in negotiations.

Wahlstrom struggled considerably last season, leading to speculation about his future with the team (which hasn’t really changed heading into this year).  Assuming he doesn’t take a big leap forward this season, he’s likely to stay around this price point and could be a non-tender candidate given his arbitration rights.  Holmstrom’s first full NHL season was a good one with 15 goals, including five on the penalty kill but took a bit less than his qualifying offer to secure a one-way salary.  A similar showing could get him closer to double that next summer.  Fasching has had a limited role over the past couple of seasons and is likely to stay in that spot in 2024-25 which means he should stay around the league minimum mark next summer.

When Dobson signed his current deal, it was a situation where the Islanders had more of the leverage.  That’s not the case anymore.  He showed that his breakout 2021-22 performance wasn’t a fluke and built on it last season, recording 70 points and logging more than 24 minutes a night.  Essentially, he performed like a true number one defender.  With arbitration rights this time around, Dobson gets the leverage in that if early talks don’t go well, he could file for arbitration where he’d make a very strong case for a substantial raise.  Assuming neither side wants it to get to that point, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Dobson’s camp pushing for $10MM or more on a long-term deal at this stage.

Romanov has emerged as a legitimate second-pairing option in his first two seasons with the Isles while producing a bit more offensively than he did with Montreal.  Like Dobson, he’s also now arbitration-eligible and if he puts up a similar performance this season, Romanov could land closer to $4.5MM on his next contract.

Reilly re-signed after playing a regular role following his early-season waiver claim.  What will hurt him in future talks is how much he has bounced around which will give some teams pause in free agency when it comes to offering him a contract.  Accordingly, there’s a good chance he sticks around this price tag on more short-term deals over the next little while.  Bolduc has been in the seventh defender role over the past two seasons and is likely to stay in that spot this season.  Arbitration rights could give him a small raise but with the raises coming to Dobson and Romanov, they might need to keep this salary slot at the minimum.

Signed Through 2025-26

F Anders Lee ($7MM, UFA)
F Jean-Gabriel Pageau ($5MM, UFA)

Lee managed to reach the 20-goal mark for the seventh time in the last eight years last season but with just 37 points, that was his lowest full-season total since 2015-16.  Now 34, the captain is showing signs of slowing down which means the last couple of years of this deal could be an issue from a value perspective.  If that happens, his next deal will be closer to half of this amount.  The same can be said for Pageau who is a luxury they can no longer afford on the third line which is where he’s best utilized.  But with that type of playing time, he won’t put up the production to justify the price tag.  It wouldn’t be surprising to see New York try to move him at some point but that won’t be easy.

Signed Through 2026-27

F Casey Cizikas ($2.5MM, UFA)
F Kyle MacLean ($775K, UFA)
G Semyon Varlamov ($2.75MM, UFA)

Cizikas is halfway through a six-year deal, a term rarely given to a player his age who plays exclusively in the bottom six.  With an uptick in production the last two seasons, they’ve done alright with it so far but he’ll be 36 when this contract ends so things could change quickly.  His next contract, if there is one, should come in below that.  MacLean was a career minor leaguer until partway through last season.  This deal was a nice one for both sides in that it gives him some financial stability while New York gets a player at the minimum for a few seasons which they’ll need given the pricey contracts they have (and will soon be adding to).

Varlamov is still an above-average second goaltender and getting that at this price point is good.  What could be problematic down the road is that he’s already 36 with three years left on his contract.  But goalies can still be serviceable into their late 30s so there’s a chance that this deal will work out well for New York.

Read more

Signed Through 2027-28 Or Longer

F Mathew Barzal ($9.15MM through 2030-31)
F Anthony Duclair ($3.5MM through 2027-28)
F Pierre Engvall ($3MM through 2029-30)
F Bo Horvat ($8.5MM through 2030-31)
D Scott Mayfield ($3.5MM through 2029-30)
D Adam Pelech ($5.75MM through 2028-29)
D Ryan Pulock ($6.15MM through 2029-30)
G Ilya Sorokin ($8.25MM through 2031-32)

Barzal got back to the point-per-game mark last season for the first time since his rookie year while also setting a new career best in goals.  This is more the minimum level of production that will be needed to justify the contract but at 27, that is still doable.  GM Lou Lamoriello’s comment when Horvat’s deal (“It’s too long, and it’s too much money”) is memorable but by no means is it a steep overpayment either.  He’s not a true top center but has been deployed as one and has three straight 30-plus-goal seasons.  If he was hitting the open market last summer, he likely would have come in pretty close to this amount and term.

Duclair was New York’s biggest splash in free agency this summer.  He’s coming off a mixed year that saw him struggle in San Jose but thrive down the stretch with Tampa Bay.  He has reached at least 20 goals in three of the last five seasons, however, and if he can stay at that level, the Islanders should get a good return on this agreement.  Engvall’s contract was an eye-popper last summer, not so much for the $3MM price tag but for the fact he received a seven-year deal, a term few players in his role typically get.  He’s someone who can be moved around the lineup and play in a few different roles while chipping in with some depth scoring.  This isn’t necessarily the best usage of a long-term deal but it’s not a big overpayment either.

Until recently, Pulock had been New York’s top defender in what was more of a by-committee approach at the top but with Dobson’s emergence last season, that should change moving forward.  This price tag is certainly reasonable for someone who should fill the number two role although he won’t produce as much offensively as a lot of players in this range do.

Pelech has logged more than 20 minutes a night in five straight years, playing a big role in New York’s defensive committee as well although his offensive production is even more limited than Pulock’s.  That makes the price tag a little harder to justify, especially for a second-pairing player but his strong defensive game eases that concern a bit.  It’s an above-market deal but a manageable one.  Mayfield also received a surprisingly long-term agreement for the role he plays, one that’s more of a fifth option when everyone is healthy.  But injuries often moved him into the top four and that price for someone in that role is manageable.  It could be an issue towards the end of the agreement but they’re not going to be at that point for a while.

Sorokin enters the season with a bit of a question mark which is something few expected this time a year ago.  After three strong years to start his NHL career, he battled inconsistency last season, even losing the starting job to Varlamov late in the year and in the playoffs.  That’s not ideal for someone who is now the fifth highest-paid goalie in the league (fourth if you don’t count Carey Price who will be on LTIR again this season).  That said, his track record is good enough that they can realistically count on Sorokin at least returning to close to his previous form which he will need to do to live up to this contract.

Buyouts

None

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

None

Best Value: (non-entry-level) Dobson
Worst Value: Lee

Looking Ahead

While the Islanders project to be right at the Upper Limit to start the season, there is some work to do.  They’ll need to create space to get Tsyplakov onto the roster and they will want to leave some wiggle room for injuries and any in-season movement.  With that in mind, Lamoriello is going to need to find a way to trim a couple million off the books and even with that, they’ll be close to being a cap-in, cap-out team in 2024-25.

They have nearly $66MM in commitments on the books for 2025-26 already with Dobson and Romanov in line for pricey new deals that will probably cut half of their remaining cap space right there without even approaching new agreements for Nelson or Palmieri (or their replacements).  At this point, it’s hard to see the Islanders being able to keep their current core group around much longer let alone add to it for a couple more years at least.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

New York Islanders| Pro Hockey Rumors Originals| Salary Cap Deep Dive 2024

2 comments

Injury Updates: Karlsson, Boldy, Hakanpaa

September 28, 2024 at 2:53 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 6 Comments

Penguins defenseman Erik Karlsson won’t skate at all this weekend due to the upper-body injury that has kept him out of training camp so far, reports Matt Vensel of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (Twitter link).  That’s actually a step in the wrong direction as the veteran had been skating on his own earlier in the week.  Head coach Mike Sullivan stated that the team will assess the plan for him early next week.  At this point, it’s starting to look like the 34-year-old might not be available for the season opener which would be tough for them.  While Karlsson wasn’t able to duplicate his 2022-23 season numbers with Pittsburgh last year, he still collected 56 points in 82 games while logging over 24 minutes a night which will be hard to replace, even on a short-term basis.

Other injury news from around the NHL:

  • Wild winger Matt Boldy skated today for the first time since being injured last weekend, notes Michael Russo of The Athletic (Twitter link). Head coach John Hynes indicated that he anticipates that the 23-year-old should be able to get several full practices in before the regular season gets underway.  Boldy is coming off a career-best 69 points in 75 games last season and will be counted to play a similar role as Minnesota looks to get back to the playoffs in 2024-25.
  • The Maple Leafs hope to have blueliner Jani Hakanpaa skate with the main group next week, relays Terry Koshan of the Toronto Sun (Twitter link). Toronto agreed to terms with the 32-year-old on the opening day of free agency but concerns over the state of his knee resulted in the agreement being cut to one year and getting registered more than two months later.  Thus far, Hakanpaa had been skating with the minor league group, bringing into question his availability for the start of the season.  If he’s able to get in some practices with the main squad and perhaps a preseason game, he could be cleared for opening night.

Injury| Minnesota Wild| Pittsburgh Penguins| Toronto Maple Leafs Erik Karlsson| Jani Hakanpaa| Matt Boldy

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