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Brock Nelson Open To In-Season Extension Talks

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Many players across the league prefer not to engage in extension discussions when the regular season gets underway, wanting to solely focus on their on-ice performance and not the off-ice situation.  That doesn’t appear to be the case for Islanders center Brock Nelson, however, who indicated to reporters including Ethan Sears of the New York Post that he’s open to having in-season negotiations about a new deal.

The 32-year-old has become a much more impactful player offensively over the past three seasons.  Before then, his career bests were 26 goals and 54 points but since 2021-22, he has notched at least 34 goals and 59 points in each of the last three years.  Last season, Nelson had 34 goals and 35 assists while averaging a little over 18 minutes a night while adding two goals and two helpers in five postseason appearances.

There’s a case to be made that Nelson’s contract has become a team-friendly one as it stands to reason that if he was a free agent this summer coming off three straight 30-goal years, he could have landed more than his current $6MM price tag on a multi-year deal.

However, Sears suggests that the prudent move for the team at this point would be to hold off on those discussions for a while.  If the team falters and finds themselves in a selling position, they could be positioned to cash in nicely on Nelson who would quite likely be one of the top rental centers available (though there is a 16-team no-trade clause they’d need to contend with).  Meanwhile, given that a breakout this late in his career isn’t generally typical, it’s also prudent for the Isles to see if Nelson can continue at this rate of production or if he’ll start to slow down.

It should be noted that the Islanders already have nearly $66MM in commitments for next season on the books to only 13 players, per PuckPedia.  That’s not impossible to work around but another contract at or around Nelson’s current price tag would mean that a lot of those remaining spots would need to be filled by low-cost players.  And with Noah Dobson heading for a substantial raise on his current $4MM AAV and Alexander Romanov ($2.5MM) also heading for an increase, things could get very tight on their books very quickly even with a projected 5% increase in the salary cap.

With all that in mind, while Nelson would probably like to get a deal done sooner than later even if it comes in-season, that probably isn’t going to be happening for the foreseeable future.

Central Notes: Eremenko, Johnson, Shalunov

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The Predators had discussions with prospect defenseman Vladislav Eremenko this summer about bringing him to North America, the blueliner revealed in an interview with Sport-Express’ Mikhail Skyal.  The 25-year-old was a fifth-round pick back in 2018 but has played exclusively in the KHL since the 2019-20 campaign.  However, he requested and received a one-year deal from Metallurg to stay with the Gagarin Cup champions for this season.  Eremenko indicated that he wouldn’t rule out the idea of signing with Nashville for next season but would likely want a European Assignment Clause put in the deal so that he wouldn’t have to play in the minors.  If he does sign, he would be capped at a one-year, entry-level agreement.

More from the Central:

  • Wild forward Reese Johnson returned to practice yesterday after missing a few days with an upper-body injury, relays Michael Russo of The Athletic (Twitter link). The 26-year-old signed a one-year deal with Minnesota this summer after being non-tendered by Chicago back in June.  He played in 42 games last season primarily on the fourth line, picking up five points while taking a regular turn on the penalty kill.  He’s likely to fill a similar role for Minnesota if he cracks their opening night lineup.
  • The Blackhawks have relinquished the rights to winger Max Shalunov, reports Scott Powers of The Athletic (subscription link). The 31-year-old was drafted back in 2011 but with there being no transfer agreement between the NHL and the Russian Hockey Federation, Chicago held his rights indefinitely.  Shalunov has elected to stay in the KHL since returning there for the 2014-15 season following a stint in Chicago’s farm system on a minor league deal.  He had 36 points in 68 games with Lokomotiv last season and GM Kyle Davidson decided that he didn’t intend to sign Shalunov so they elected to release his rights.

East Notes: Pesce, Hatakka, Sogaard, Zub, Postponement

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Devils defenseman Brett Pesce still has not yet been cleared to play as he works his way back from offseason surgery, relays team reporter Amanda Stein (Twitter link).  New Jersey’s top free agent signing underwent fibula surgery to repair an injury sustained in the spring in the playoffs for Carolina.  Their game tonight was their final one before the main team travels to Prague this weekend for their upcoming Global Series games against Buffalo.  While New Jersey still has three preseason games remaining, those will be contested by their farm team and PTO players.  That means Pesce won’t have a chance to see any preseason action before the season gets underway unless they keep him off the road trip to start the season.

More from the East:

  • Stein also noted that blueliner Santeri Hatakka is dealing with something that has him classified as out longer than day-to-day but he is still being evaluated to determine the exact seriousness. The 23-year-old spent most of last season with AHL Utica where he had 20 points in 48 games but also got into 12 games with the Devils, collecting two assists in a little under 15 minutes a night.  Because of the NHL time last season, Hatakka will have a prorated cap charge relative to the percentage of days spent in New Jersey’s roster in 2023-24 if he starts the year on season-opening IR.  That would work out to roughly 15% of his $775K AAV.
  • Senators goaltender Mads Sogaard is dealing with a light strain which will keep him out for another week, notes Postmedia’s Bruce Garrioch. Sogaard is likely to begin the season as Ottawa’s third-string netminder but this will be his final year of waiver exemption.  Meanwhile, Garrioch adds that blueliner Artem Zub is expected to return in the coming days after suffering a lower-body injury earlier this week.
  • The Lightning announced that tonight’s game between them and the Predators was postponed with the region still recovering from Hurricane Helene. Instead of simply not playing the game, they will make it up on October 7th.  Nashville’s regular season doesn’t start until the 10th while Tampa Bay’s kicks off one day later so the late preseason matchup shouldn’t be an issue for either side.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: New Jersey Devils

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the most important tasks for a front office.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t often see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2024-25 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of PuckPedia.  We’re currently covering the Metropolitan Division, next up is New Jersey.

New Jersey Devils

Current Cap Hit: $87,023,897 (under the $88MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

D Luke Hughes (one year, $925K)
D Simon Nemec (two years, $918K)

Potential Bonuses
Hughes: $1.85MM
Nemec: $3.25MM
Total: $5.1MM

Hughes had a strong rookie season offensively, notching 47 points while maxing out his $850K of ‘A’ bonuses in the process.  Even with that being his only full season of experience, with the way young blueliners have been locked up lately, a max-term agreement could be coming his way, one that could run past $8MM.  However, an injury to start the season won’t help his cause.  Nemec, meanwhile, spent most of last season in New Jersey, acquitting himself well to the NHL.  He doesn’t have quite the offensive upside that Hughes does but he could be an all-situations player; that, coupled with his lofty draft status (second overall in 2022), could have him surpassing $8MM on his next contract if he progresses as expected.

Signed Through 2024-25, Non-Entry-Level

G Jake Allen ($1.925MM, UFA)*
F Nathan Bastian ($1.35MM, UFA)
D Nick DeSimone ($775K, UFA)
D Johnathan Kovacevic ($758K, UFA)
F Curtis Lazar ($1MM, UFA)
F Tomas Tatar ($1.8MM, UFA)

*-Montreal is retaining an additional $1.925MM on Allen’s contract.

Tatar returns to New Jersey after a particularly rough season between Colorado and Seattle but he’s only a year removed from putting up 48 points with the Devils.  It’s possible that he’s on the decline but it’s reasonable to think he’ll produce enough to warrant this price tag.  He hasn’t fared well lately in free agency so even if he rebounds, he probably won’t command a huge jump in salary.  Bastian is a capable fourth liner who showed some offensive upside in 2021-22 but will need to get back to that level if he wants to match this deal next summer let alone beat it.  Lazar is coming off a career year offensively which is an outlier relative to the rest of his career.  If he can repeat the 25 points he had, he could double this price point or even more.  However, if he goes more to his career averages, a small increase is about the best he could hope for.

DeSimone was a midseason waiver claim from Calgary and held his own in a depth role.  It’d be surprising to see him advance past that this season so he’s likely to stay around the minimum salary moving forward.  Kovacevic came over in a trade from Montreal over the summer after largely holding down a spot on the third pairing the last two years.  While a lot will depend on if he can play a regular role this season, the fact he’s a right-shot defender with some experience under his belt could give him a shot at doubling his current rate next summer.

Allen also was acquired from Montreal, this time back at the trade deadline where he stabilized things between the pipes down the stretch.  Stabilizing is a fitting description for what Allen’s best role is at this point of his career.  He can handle a starting workload for brief stretches but is best utilized in a platoon type of role or as a high-end backup which is where he’ll be this season.  The market for those types of netminders has flattened out somewhat in recent years, however, while the fact he’ll be 35 heading into 2025-26 will also hurt him.  It’s possible that he can get a two-year deal but a possible comparable might be the two-year, $5MM pact that Cam Talbot received from Detroit this summer.

Signed Through 2025-26

F Paul Cotter ($775K, RFA)
F Erik Haula ($3.15MM, UFA)
G Jacob Markstrom ($4.125MM, UFA)*

*-Calgary is retaining an additional $1.85MM on Markstrom’s contract.

Haula hasn’t been able to get back to the level of production he had when he started with Vegas in 2017-18 but he has settled in nicely over the last three seasons as someone who will play around a 15-goal, 40-point pace.  That price point for a center is solid value but he’ll also be 35 when this deal is up which could limit his shot at a raise in 2026.  Cotter was acquired from Vegas this summer as a way for the Devils to add some more grit to their lineup.  Part of the reason the price was relatively high (Alexander Holtz and Akira Schmid) is the fact he’s signed for two more years at the league minimum.  Cotter could triple that or more on his next deal if he plays at a similar rate for the next two seasons.

It took a little longer than first expected to get Markstrom to New Jersey but they got the deal done before the draft.  He’s a solid starter although he’s also getting closer to the end of his career as he’s already 34.  Accordingly, even if the starting goalie market goes up (depending on what contracts Jeremy Swayman and Igor Shesterkin get), Markstrom is likelier to stay closer to his current price point if he can maintain his current level for two more seasons.

Signed Through 2026-27

D Brenden Dillon ($4MM, UFA)
F Nico Hischier ($7.25MM, UFA)
F Kurtis MacDermid ($1.15MM, UFA)
F Dawson Mercer ($4MM, RFA)
F Stefan Noesen ($2.75MM, UFA)
F Ondrej Palat ($6MM, UFA)

At the time that Hischier’s contract was signed, he had just two seasons under his belt so there was certainly some risk to a max-term commitment at the time.  However, it has worked out rather well so far for the Devils as it is already below market value at the time he’s entering his prime years.  (The success of this contract provided a road map for other teams to take similar approaches with their top youngsters as well as these types of contracts are much more prevalent now.)  Hischier probably won’t produce enough to be viewed as a true number one center but his two-way game is strong enough that there will be teams that treat him as one.  Accordingly, between that and the fact he’ll hit free agency at 28, Hischier could command a double-digit AAV on his next contract.

Palat hasn’t been able to produce at the levels he did with Tampa Bay over his first two seasons with New Jersey with injuries being an issue at times as well.  Already 33, if he’s not able to turn things around, this is a deal that could be problematic for them as GM Tom Fitzgerald continues to try to add to his roster.  Mercer was all but guaranteed to land a bridge contract given New Jersey’s current cap situation but the fact they got a third season at that price point will help.  However, it takes him to within a year of UFA eligibility so it’s not without its risk.  Mercer will be owed a $4.25MM qualifying offer with arbitration rights and if he can get back to his 2022-23 production (56 points), he could add a few million per year to that number.

Noesen proved to be quite a bargain for Carolina for the last two seasons, recording 36 and 37 points for a cap hit below the league minimum.  That helped earn him this deal, well above the six-figure price tags he was accustomed to getting.  Is this his new baseline performance?  He’ll need it to be if he is going to stay around this price moving forward.  MacDermid signed this deal back in May to avoid free agency.  It’s a reasonable price tag for an enforcer and falls within the range of some of the more established options.  It’s also fully buriable in the minors if they decide a tough guy is something they can no longer afford to carry.

Dillon was part of the defensive makeover this summer, coming over from Winnipeg.  This will be seasons 11 through 13 that he makes more than $3MM with this price tag being the highest.  He’ll be 36 when he tests the market again and if he’s still a fourth or fifth blueliner at that time, that streak could be extended though potentially on a year-to-year basis moving forward.

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Summer Synopsis: New York Islanders

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Last season was a rough one for the Islanders in the first half of the season.  The team only won 19 of their first 45 games, leading to a coaching change with Patrick Roy taking over for Lane Lambert behind the bench.  It took a bit of time for them to find their stride but they got hot a little before the trade deadline, ultimately pulling themselves from being out of the playoff picture to finishing third in the Metropolitan Division although they bowed out in the first round to Carolina.  GM Lou Lamoriello didn’t have much flexibility this summer and largely elected to stay the course, hoping that New York’s finish to the season was a sign of things to come.

Draft

1-20: LW Cole Eiserman / U.S. National U18 Team (NTDP)
2-54: D Jesse Pulkkinen / JYP (Liiga)
2-61: C Kamil Bednarik / U.S. National U18 Team (NTDP)
4-115: G Dmitry Gamzin / Zvezda Moskva (VHL)
5-147: G Marcus Gidlof / Leksands IF J20 (J20 Nationell)
6-179: D Xavier Veilleux / Muskegon Lumberjacks (USHL)

Coming into the season, Eiserman was a popular pick to land in the top five.  While a little undersized, being a high-end scorer is an attribute that teams were expected to covet.  It didn’t happen that way.  Even though he broke the US National Team Development Program’s record for most goals scored (passing Cole Caufield, Phil Kessel, and Patrick Kane), Eiserman slipped out of the lottery altogether.  While Eiserman will likely spend a couple of years at Boston University, he projects as someone who should make an impact for the Isles sooner than a lot of others picked in that range.

Lamoriello didn’t waste any time signing Pulkkinen as the big blueliner inked his entry-level deal in mid-July.  He has some offensive upside and isn’t afraid of mixing it up, elements that will endear him to his coaches.  He will spend the upcoming season in Finland and is probably two or three years away from being NHL-ready.  Bednarik was Eiserman’s teammate with the NTDP and will continue to be his teammate at BU.  More of a two-way player than a raw gamebreaker like Eiserman, Bednarik is likely a few years away from turning pro.

With their other selections, the Islanders went with some longer-term options.  With a goaltending prospect cupboard that wasn’t the deepest, they opted for two netminders that carry at least four years of club control; Gamzin’s rights will be held indefinitely.  As for Veilleux, he’s committed to Harvard University but will spend another season in the USHL, meaning it could be five years before he signs.

Trade Acquisitions

The Isles were quiet on the trade front over the offseason.  Their only swap came more than a month before the draft when they flipped the 18th and 50th picks to Chicago for picks 20, 54, and 61.  Considering that they still wound up with Eiserman plus a pair of intriguing pieces in Pulkkinen and Bednarik, the move turned out pretty well for them as things stand.

UFA Signings

F Anthony Duclair (four years, $14MM)
F Liam Foudy (one year, $775K)*
F Mark Gatcomb (one year, $775K)*
G Marcus Hogberg (two years, $1.55MM)
F Fredrik Karlstrom (one year, $775K)*
D Mike Reilly (one year, $1.25MM)
F Maxim Tsyplakov (one year, $950K)*

*-denotes two-way contract

With limited cap space, Lamoriello used what he had primarily to try to upgrade the offense.  Duclair is a particularly interesting acquisition.  He struggled in San Jose but after Tampa Bay acquired him at the trade deadline, he came up just shy of being a point-per-game player down the stretch.  The 29-year-old has potted at least 23 goals in three of the last four years and this is a team that has scuffled offensively at times over the years.  Roy also has a comfort level with Duclair having coached him previously at the major junior level with QMJHL Quebec.  New York doesn’t need Duclair to produce as he did for the Lightning late in the season but if he can be a consistent 20-goal player and do some damage with his speed, this contract should work out for them.

Tsyplakov was the other addition of intrigue.  The 26-year-old had a breakout year in the KHL last season, notching 31 goals with Spartak Moscow; his previous career-high was 10.  That showing got him on a lot of NHL radars with New York being out a lot of teams for his services.  Capped at signing a one-year deal no matter who got him, Tsyplakov will be looking to land a full-time roster spot but will likely need to start in their bottom six, assuming they can create the cap room to keep him up – more on that later.

Reilly was picked up off waivers early in the season, a move that worked out quite well for both the team and the blueliner.  He wound up securing a full-time spot in the lineup, even holding onto one as players came back from injuries while he chipped in with 24 points in 59 games.  This is his fifth team since 2019 so it’s not surprising that Reilly decided to stay where he had some success; he should have a depth role on their back end this season.

RFA Re-Signings

D Dennis Cholowski (one year, $775K)*
F Simon Holmstrom (one year, $850K)
F Kyle MacLean (three years, $2.325MM)
F Tyce Thompson (one year, $775K)*
F Oliver Wahlstrom (one year, $1MM)

*-denotes two-way contract

Wahlstrom had a year to forget last season.  Coming off an ACL injury the year before, he was largely a non-factor on the nights he was in the lineup, recording just two goals and four assists in 32 games.  That had some wondering if the two sides could part ways.  Instead, they avoided arbitration with this deal, one that essentially represents a do-over on last season.  However, given the cheap deal and one-year term, it’s quite possible that the Isles still move on from Wahlstrom, either via a trade or even the waiver wire if they’re willing to risk losing him for no return.  Suffice it to say, things haven’t gone as planned so far for the 11th pick in the 2018 draft.

Holmstrom had a solid showing last season, scoring five shorthanded goals and 15 overall in 75 games despite playing nearly exclusively in the bottom six.  However, he elected to take less than his qualifying offer in order to secure a one-way contract which should help his chance of making the team in a similar role to last season’s.  MacLean was a feel-good story, making his NHL debut last season at the age of 25 and playing his way into a regular spot on the fourth line after that.  Rather than seek top dollar, he opted for security, getting three one-way years on his contract, an outcome that wouldn’t have seemed likely even at the midway point of last season.  Cholowski and Thompson, meanwhile, are primarily AHL veterans at this point of their careers.

Departures

D Sebastian Aho (Pittsburgh, two years, $1.55MM)
G Kenneth Appleby (Charlotte, AHL)
D Robert Bortuzzo (Utah, one year, $775K)*
F Cal Clutterbuck (unsigned)
F Brian Pinho (Bridgeport, AHL)
F Karson Kuhlman (Lukko, Liiga)
D Paul Ladue (MoDo, SHL)
F Otto Koivula (Vaxjo, SHL)
F Matt Martin (PTO with the Islanders)
D Robin Salo (Malmo, SHL)

*-denotes two-way contract

For the most part, New York lost predominantly AHL or depth players.  But their fourth line will look considerably different without Clutterbuck, who had been a fixture there for the past 11 seasons but wasn’t invited back despite recording 19 points and 273 hits.  Martin, meanwhile, wasn’t expected to be back but is hanging around on a PTO, one that’s expected to last into the start of the regular season so he may or may not be a departure when all is said and done depending on if he signs.

Bortuzzo was acquired early last season to offset some injuries on the back end, much like Reilly was.  But his role was much more limited, playing exclusively on the third pairing when he was in the lineup.  Aho, meanwhile, had worked his way from being a depth defender to a full timer on the roster, one who played in 129 games for New York over the past two seasons, predominantly on the third pairing as well.  But with their injured players returning and Reilly being retained, there wasn’t a vacant spot for Aho to potentially fill, resulting in him heading to the Penguins.

Salary Cap Outlook

At the moment, the Islanders have spent exactly to the $88MM Upper Limit (to the penny), per PuckPedia.  And that’s with Tsyplakov not being on the roster.  Presumably, they’re going to want to get him with the big club to start the season which has helped fuel the speculation around Wahlstrom’s future with the team.  MacLean is their only waiver-exempt player and since he makes the league minimum, sending him down isn’t enough.  Accordingly, expect to see some roster activity from the Isles in the coming weeks as they look to free up space for Tsyplakov, possibly Martin, while hoping to give themselves some wiggle room for in-season flexibility.  Lamoriello has some work to do to achieve that.

Key Questions

Can Sorokin Rebound? Through his first three seasons, Sorokin was an elite netminder, posting a 2.34 GAA along with a .924 SV% in 136 games.  That helped him earn an eight-year, $66MM contract extension last July, one that kicks in this season.  However, he struggled throughout last season, putting up a 3.01 GAA with a .908 SV%, a rate that was above the NHL average but well below his standards.  Those struggles resulted in Semyon Varlamov being the starter for their series against the Hurricanes.  Sorokin underwent back surgery this summer and while he isn’t expected to miss time, it only adds to the question of whether he can get back to the Vezina-contending form he has shown in the past.

Will The Offense Improve? New York finished in the bottom 12 offensively last season for the sixth straight year.  The only proven addition of note is Duclair, a player who is probably a middle-six forward.  He’ll help but he alone won’t bring this group to even a middle of the pack team.  They did fare a bit better in this regard following the coaching change but is that sustainable?  Of the 15 other playoff teams last season, the average number of goals scored was 276.  New York checked in at 246 with only Washington coming in below them.  If they want to get to that average, where are the extra 30 goals coming from?  And if they can get that and a bounce-back showing from Sorokin, the Islanders could make some noise this season.

Can Dobson Reach Another Level? Noah Dobson was certainly a bright spot on the blueline for New York last season.  Offensively, he blew past his career bests in assists (60) and points (70), finishing sixth and seventh league-wide in those categories for a defenseman.  Meanwhile, he logged over 24 minutes a night, becoming a legitimate number one blueliner.  Still just 24, how much more room is left to improve?  If he can get into that elite tier of defenders, he’ll give the Islanders an element they haven’t had for a while.  The timing would also be perfect as he’ll be a restricted free agent with arbitration eligibility next summer and will be looking to cash in.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Columbus Blue Jackets

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the most important tasks for a front office.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t often see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2024-25 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of PuckPedia.  We’re currently covering the Metropolitan Division, next up is Columbus.

Columbus Blue Jackets

Current Cap Hit: $63,201,666 (under the $88MM Upper Limit, also under the $65MM Lower Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Adam Fantilli (two years, $950K)
D David Jiricek (two years, $918K)
F Dmitri Voronkov (one year, $925K)

Potential Bonuses
Fantilli: $3.2MM
Jiricek: $1MM
Total: $4.2MM

Fantilli had a solid first half of the season relative to the Blue Jackets’ struggles but his campaign ended early due to a calf laceration.  Still, if he can take a step forward this season, he’s someone that the team may look to buck the trend and work out a long-term agreement with.  It wouldn’t be surprising if the seven-year, $50MM deal that Seattle gave Matthew Beniers would be used as a possible comparable.  Fantilli has $1MM of ‘A’ bonuses in his deal (four at $250K apiece) and if he stays healthy, he should hit at least a couple of those which could help push the Blue Jackets closer to the cap floor.  Voronkov took a while to get going but turned in a quality freshman year himself.  However, there has been speculation that his desire might be to return to Russia.  If that’s not the case, he’s someone who might be in line for a $3MM bridge deal, more if he has a more productive showing this season.

Jiricek split last season between Columbus and AHL Cleveland but passed the 40-game mark to accrue a season of service time.  However, the limited role he had makes a long-term deal unlikely at this point unless he takes on a top role within the next year or so.  His bonuses are also four ‘As’ but without much of an offensive game, he may be limited to aiming for ones geared toward plus/minus, blocked shots, and ATOI.

Signed Through 2024-25, Non-Entry-Level

F Justin Danforth ($1.1MM, UFA)
F Trey Fix-Wolansky ($775K, RFA)
D Jordan Harris ($1.4MM, RFA)
D Jack Johnson ($775K, UFA)
F Sean Kuraly ($2.5MM, UFA)
F Mathieu Olivier ($1.1MM, UFA)
D Ivan Provorov ($4.75MM, UFA)*
G Daniil Tarasov ($1.05MM, RFA)
F James van Riemsdyk ($900K, UFA)

*-Los Angeles is retaining an additional $2MM on Provorov’s contract.

Kuraly has nicely filled a bottom-six center spot in the first three seasons with his hometown team.  However, even with a slightly bigger role than he had with Boston, his offensive production has been somewhat limited.  Accordingly, while he might be able to land another multi-year deal around this price point, it’s hard to see him commanding much more than that.  Olivier has become an enforcer who can play more than just spot minutes which should help his cause heading to the open market.  While a lot of teams don’t carry that type of player now, enough still do that at least a small raise could be achievable.

Danforth has turned into somewhat of a Swiss army knife for the Blue Jackets.  Somewhat of a late bloomer, he opted to take an early extension last time but he might be better off testing the market this time around.  If he can have another season of double-digit goals and 25-plus points, his versatility could make him very intriguing on the open market, allowing him to potentially double this price tag.  As for van Riemsdyk, he was a late signing due to Columbus being limited up front.  That he didn’t have much interest in a guaranteed deal beforehand was a bit surprising but it might forecast a similar fate next summer.  Fix-Wolansky is far from guaranteed a roster spot but is at the point where there isn’t much left to prove in the minors.  He could just be a high-end AHL player but even so, some of those have received one-way deals in recent years.

Provorov had a decent first season in Columbus but still came up short of the offensive production he had in his best days with Philadelphia.  That will likely limit his earnings upside on his next deal as the expectation is that he’d be more productive by this point.  However, the fact he’ll hit the open market at 28 should offset that somewhat; that’s a few years younger than a lot of impact blueliners for their first trip through unrestricted free agency.  A breakout year under new head coach Dean Evason could change things but as it stands now, Provorov might be someone who winds up accepting a contract very close to the one he has now, both in salary and term (he’s ending a six-year agreement this season).

Harris was acquired from Montreal in the Patrik Laine trade and is likely to have a similar role with Columbus as he did with the Canadiens, that of a fourth or fifth defender with limited special teams time.  With salary arbitration rights, he should be able to push past the $2MM mark but with limited production, his earnings upside will be capped.  Johnson accepted a one-year deal at the league minimum this summer, a price point he’s likely to stay at if he signs for 2025-26.

Tarasov bounced back relatively well after a rough 2022-23 campaign but still hasn’t progressed past the level of a possible backup goalie.  That said, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him play a bit more this season which could push his asking price to the $2MM range on another short-term agreement.

Signed Through 2025-26

F Yegor Chinakhov ($2.1MM, RFA)
D Erik Gudbranson ($4MM, UFA)
F Boone Jenner ($3.75MM, UFA)
F Cole Sillinger ($2.25MM, RFA)

Jenner hasn’t been able to get to the 30-goal mark in recent years but has quietly produced at that pace for three straight years but has simply dealt with injuries.  He’s a legitimate two-way top-six center on a deal that was a team-friendly pact from the moment he signed it.  Assuming he continues to log around 20 minutes a night, a multi-year deal worth more than $6MM per season could be where his market lands in 2026.

Sillinger rebounded well after a particularly rough sophomore year but he still isn’t established enough to the point where a long-term deal made no sense for either side.  This bridge deal from earlier this summer buys both sides more time to evaluate.  He’ll be arbitration-eligible next time out and at this point, it’s hard to project where he’ll land as his offensive game still has a lot of room to grow.  Chinakhov took some steps forward last season when healthy, giving the Blue Jackets some secondary scoring.  Still, he’s not yet a consistently reliable top-six forward which is where he’ll need to get to in order to get a raise of significance two years from now.

Gudbranson’s contract was widely panned at the time as a third-pairing player getting more money and term than many expected.  However, he has played top-four minutes with the Blue Jackets, giving them at least some bang for their buck, especially after a career year offensively.  That said, he’ll be 34 when he hits the open market and has a physical style that tends not to age well.  It’d be surprising if he eclipses $4MM on his next deal as a result.

Signed Through 2026-27

F Kent Johnson ($1.8MM, RFA)
F Kirill Marchenko ($3.85MM, RFA)
G Elvis Merzlikins ($5.4MM, UFA)

Marchenko only has two NHL seasons under his belt but surpassed the 20-goal mark in each of them, giving him a bit of leverage in contract talks which didn’t seem to go to his liking early on.  This is on the pricier end for a typical bridge agreement but both sides will get to see if he has another gear to get to before he gets one more crack at restricted free agency with arbitration rights and a $3.975MM qualifying offer.  If he can keep scoring 20-plus goals, he’ll be in line for a sizable raise next time out.  Johnson really only has one full NHL season under his belt; he burned a year with limited action after college and missed half of last year due to injury and some time in the minors.  That made a three-year deal a bit surprising, especially at a rate that looks like a team-friendly one.  It won’t take much for Johnson to out-perform this contract as he looks to establish himself as a top-six piece.  If that happens, he’ll more than double this next time out.

Merzlikins did have better numbers last season but that was a pretty low bar to meet considering how much he struggled in 2022-23.  Even so, his level of performance was well below league average for a backup goalie let alone a starter.  He has suggested in the past that he’d welcome a trade but earlier this summer, GM Don Waddell noted how hard that would be, saying “Let’s be honest, nobody is going to trade for that contract. Nobody”.  That about says everything you need to know about the value perspective or lack thereof.  At this point, a change of scenery could help him rebuild some value but at this point, his next contract seems likely to be a one-year, low-cost ‘prove it’ type of agreement.

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Five Key Stories: 9/16/24 – 9/22/24

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With training camps getting underway, it was a busy week around the NHL, particularly on the transactions front with plenty of notable contracts being handed out.  Those are among our key stories from the past seven days.

Red Wings Sign Three: Detroit came into the week with three players left to sign and they ended it with zero.  First, they signed winger Jonatan Berggren to a one-year, $825K contract.  After spending most of last season in the minors, it’s expected he’ll be a full-timer on the Red Wings this season.  Next, winger Lucas Raymond received an eight-year, $64.6MM agreement, one that buys up four extra years of club control.  The fourth-overall pick in 2020, Raymond had by far his best showing last season, notching 31 goals and 41 assists in 82 games.  Lastly, blueliner Moritz Seider inked a seven-year, $59.85MM deal.  The sixth-overall selection in 2019 quickly emerged as a key all-situations blueliner in his rookie year and has played at a similar level since then.  The $8.55MM AAV on this deal checks in just below the $8.7MM for captain Dylan Larkin which was viewed as a ceiling in negotiations.

Utah Makes Another Splash: It has been a busy offseason for Utah HC in their inaugural year after moving from Arizona.  The team swung two big moves to shore up the back end with Mikhail Sergachev and John Marino and now, they’ve handed out one of the richest deals in franchise history to winger Dylan Guenther.  The 21-year-old reached an agreement on a seven-year, $57.14MM extension ($7.142MM AAV), one that puts him just behind Clayton Keller ($7.15MM) for their highest-paid forward.  Guenther started last season in the minors but was quite productive following a midseason recall, notching 18 goals and 17 assists in 45 games.  He has just 78 career NHL games under his belt and has one year remaining on his entry-level contract.

Crosby Finally Signs: It was widely expected that Penguins captain Sidney Crosby would sign a contract extension over the offseason.  Many felt it’d be early on which wasn’t the case.  However, the deal got done as Crosby signed a two-year, $17.4MM deal which kicks in next season.  The deal carries a $8.7MM AAV, meaning that this amount will have been his exclusive cap charge since the 2008-09 season.  Crosby is a franchise icon, leading the team in games played (1,272) while sitting second to Mario Lemieux in goals (592), assists (1,004), and points (1,596).  While he easily could have made a case to command a higher price tag coming off a 42-goal, 94-point season, he’ll remain at the number that’s familiar to him, keeping him on a team-friendly agreement for a little while longer.

Calling It A Career: One of the more prominent remaining unrestricted free agents was veteran winger Kyle Okposo.  However, he has decided to go out on top, announcing his retirement at the age of 36.  The winger played in 17 NHL seasons (notching 614 points), splitting time almost identically between the Islanders and Sabres.  Buffalo flipped him to Florida at the trade deadline, giving him a chance to play for a contender and it worked out well for Okposo with the Panthers winning the Stanley Cup.  Meanwhile, while Jaromir Jagr left the NHL in the 2017-18 season, he hasn’t stopped playing, suiting up for Kladno in his native Czechia, the team he owns.  However, he has revealed that this will be his final year at age 52.  Between the regular season and playoffs, Jagr is closing in on 2,500 career professional appearances and is the second-leading scorer in NHL history.

Stars Sign Two Defensemen: Dallas went into the week with a blueliner to sign although their first contract went to a different one as they agreed to terms with Esa Lindell on a five-year, $26.25MM extension.  The deal actually represents a small pay cut as he’ll make $5.8MM this season in the final year of his current pact.  Lindell has averaged more than 22 minutes a night over his career with Dallas, serving as a reliable defender at that time.  He now won’t be UFA-eligible until the age of 36.  Meanwhile, the Stars reached an agreement with the other blueliner they needed to sign later in the day, signing Thomas Harley to a two-year, $8MM deal.  The 23-year-old only recorded 15 goals and 32 assists in 79 games last season while averaging just over 21 minutes a night, earning himself a significant raise from his entry-level deal in the process.  The deal is slightly backloaded, resulting in Harley requiring a $4.5MM qualifying offer with arbitration rights in 2026.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Snapshots: Fowler, Danforth, Nosek, Lankinen

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Earlier this month, it was revealed that the Ducks and veteran defenseman Cam Fowler were working on finding a new team for him to play for.  With Anaheim firmly in a rebuild and Fowler only having two years left on his contract, a change of scenery would make sense for both sides.  GM Pat Verbeek told reporters including Eric Stephens of The Athletic (subscription link) that he doesn’t sense that this will be a distraction, highlighting that Fowler is fully committed to the team.  The 32-year-old has spent his entire 14-year career with Anaheim and sits third in franchise history in games played (974) and fifth in points (453).  With most teams at this point wanting to see what they have first before pondering potential moves, it’s likely that a move involving Fowler will take some time to materialize.

Elsewhere around the NHL:

  • While Blue Jackets winger Justin Danforth has been cleared to resume some on-ice work as he works his way back from a hand injury, Aaron Portzline of The Athletic reports (subscription link) that Danforth might not be cleared for contact for another two or three weeks. Accordingly, that would likely put the start of the regular season out of reach for the 31-year-old in jeopardy.  Danforth had a career-high 26 points in 71 games last season while spending time at all three forward positions.
  • Panthers center Tomas Nosek left today’s preseason game early after colliding with the boards following a trip, notes team reporter Jameson Olive (Twitter link). While he briefly tried to return later in the period, he ultimately didn’t return to the contest.  Nosek is in his first season in Florida after signing a one-year deal with them in free agency.  The 32-year-old battled injury trouble last season, missing 43 games due to four separate issues, managing just six points in 36 appearances when he did suit up.
  • The one-year, $875K deal that the Canucks reached with goaltender Kevin Lankinen on Saturday carries an eight-team no-trade clause, PuckPedia reports (Twitter link). It’s the first time in his career that the 29-year-old will have any form of trade protection in his contract.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Carolina Hurricanes

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the most important tasks for a front office.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t often see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2024-25 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of PuckPedia.  Next up is the Metropolitan Division, beginning with Carolina.

Carolina Hurricanes

Current Cap Hit: $87,920,087 (under the $88MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Bradly Nadeau (three years, $918.3K)

Nadeau might have a chance to make the team out of training camp.  He turned pro after a solid freshman year at college, even making his NHL debut while spending the playoffs as a Black Ace in Carolina.  Given that his NHL career spans just one game so far, it’s far too early to project his next contract.

Signed Through 2024-25, Non-Entry-Level

G Frederik Andersen ($3.4MM, UFA)
D Brent Burns ($5.28MM, UFA)*
F Jesper Fast ($2.4MM, UFA)
F Tyson Jost ($775K, UFA)
F Brendan Lemieux ($775K, UFA)
G Spencer Martin ($775K, UFA)
D Dmitry Orlov ($7.75MM, UFA)
F Eric Robinson ($950K, UFA)
F Jack Roslovic ($2.8MM, UFA)

*-San Jose is retaining another $2.72MM on Burns’ contract.

Roslovic is coming off a down year, one which saw him notch just nine goals and 22 assists in 59 games between the Blue Jackets and Rangers.  Rather than trying to sign a multi-year agreement, he opted for a one-year deal to try to rebuild his value.  He’ll need to get back to the 40-point range if he wants to come close to the $4MM he made on his last deal.  Fast, meanwhile, is already out for the season after neck surgery which won’t help his cause heading to the open market.  A capable bottom-six winger, he’ll likely have to settle for a one-year deal to show he’s healthy.  Although he’ll only be 33 next summer, he will be eligible for performance bonuses since he has played more than 400 NHL games and will be out for the entire year; it wouldn’t be surprising to see a team or two try to use that to their advantage in an offer.

Robinson split last season between Columbus and Buffalo and didn’t fare particularly well.  However, with two seasons of double-digit goals before that, he was able to secure more than the minimum this time around.  He’ll need to get back to that this season or else he could fall into the tier of players settling for the minimum salary.  That’s where Lemieux and Jost already find themselves and barring a significant change in their fortunes this season, they’re likely to remain around that mark.

Orlov elected to take a short-term, above-market deal last summer, positioning himself for potentially another multi-year agreement in what should be a more favorable environment.  However, he had a much more limited role than many expected last season and if he remains in the fourth or fifth slot, the price tag on his contract, might start with a four instead of a seven.  Burns has fit in quite well since being acquired and is still logging big minutes.  At some point, that’s going to change but if he wants to, he could hang around for another year or two even though he’ll turn 40 in March.  It stands to reason that he’ll be going year-to-year at that point, but a $5MM price tag for next season shouldn’t be out of the question.

Andersen dealt with a blood clot issue for a big chunk of last season but was dominant in the limited action he had.  That’s too small of a sample size to make a forecast from but his career numbers have him in the higher-end second-string range or lower-end starter (thanks to durability concerns).  That could be worth a small raise but as he turns 35, he’s a candidate to take a slightly lesser deal in exchange for a multi-year agreement.  Martin projects to be the third-string option but was a full-time NHL player last season thanks to some waiver claims.  With a salary at the minimum, he could be a candidate to be claimed should the Hurricanes try to send him down.  He’ll need to play more frequently to have a shot at a seven-figure deal next summer.

Signed Through 2025-26

F Jack Drury ($1.725MM, RFA)
F Martin Necas ($6.5MM, UFA)

Necas was a speculative trade candidate for most of the offseason and frankly, this contract probably didn’t do too much to dispel that.  A legitimate top-six forward, he will now be positioned to hit the open market at 27, an opportunity few impact players have.  If he can get back to the 70-point range that he reached in 2022-23, he could command upwards of $8MM on the open market.  Drury established himself as a full-timer last season while being a weapon at the faceoff dot.  A productive scorer in the minors, he’ll need to find another gear offensively to have a shot at commanding more impactful money.  Notably, his qualifying offer checks in slightly lower than this at $1.675MM.

Signed Through 2026-27

D Jalen Chatfield ($3MM, UFA)
D Shayne Gostisbehere ($3.2MM, UFA)
G Pyotr Kochetkov ($2MM, UFA)
F Jordan Martinook ($3.05MM, UFA)
F Jordan Staal ($2.9MM, UFA)

After being more of a limited player in his first few seasons with the Hurricanes, Martinook has become a capable secondary scorer while playing a sound defensive game.  He’s still a role player in the grand scheme of things but he’s an upper-end third liner now which helped him earn a $1.25MM raise from last season.  Staal took a more than 50% drop in salary last year to remain in Carolina while getting a four-year agreement that takes him to his age-38 season.  By that time, he’ll likely have a more limited role so if he signs another deal, it could be at a lower price point once again.

Gostisbehere opted for a pay cut but some stability after playing on a one-year deal a year ago.  He remains a capable offensive defenseman who will give some of that production back at the other end.  However, with Burns potentially on the way out after the upcoming season, Gostisbehere could be in line for some more impressive offensive stats.  Chatfield has worked his way from being a depth defender to one who is more of an every-game regular.  $3MM is on the higher side for someone in a number six role but given the scarcity of right-shot defenders on the open market this past summer, he likely was getting it from someone if not Carolina.

Kochetkov’s contract was one of the more interesting ones given to a goalie in recent years.  At the time he signed it, he had primarily played in the minors though he showed some promising signs in limited NHL action.  Even last season, the first year of that deal, saw Kochetkov spend some time in the AHL.  But they’re banking on him playing at a backup level at a minimum and at this point, it looks like he’ll be able to do that at the very least.  If he can land higher on the depth chart and take over as the full-fledged starter (or perhaps more likely, the strong side of a platoon), Carolina will get a terrific return on this agreement.

Signed Through 2027-28 Or Longer

F Sebastian Aho ($9.75MM through 2031-32)
F William Carrier ($2MM through 2029-30)
F Seth Jarvis ($7.42MM through 2031-32)
F Jesperi Kotkaniemi ($4.82MM through 2029-30)
D Jaccob Slavin ($5.3MM in 2024-25, $6.396MM from 2025-26 through 2032-33)
F Andrei Svechnikov ($7.75MM through 2028-29)
D Sean Walker ($3.6MM through 2028-29)

While Montreal’s offer sheet to Aho in the past was one Carolina easily matched, the one thing it did was put Aho in a position to reach UFA eligibility early which helped him land this agreement.  He has averaged just over a point per game over the last six seasons combined and is a legitimate number one center.  With the rising costs for impact middlemen, this deal is in line with many of those.  Svechnikov bypassed the bridge contract to sign this agreement with the hopes it’d be a bargain as the deal progresses.  When healthy, he performs as a top-line level but he has missed considerable time for two straight years now which means it’s not a team-friendly pact just yet but is heading in that direction.

The deal with Jarvis took some time to put together this summer and for good reason.  The sense is that the Hurricanes wanted to keep Svechnikov’s contract as the high point in discussions while Jarvis’ camp wanted more than that.  They eventually found a happy medium as he will receive an average of $7.9MM per season (more than Svechnikov) but with $15.67MM in deferrals, the cap hit is lower than Svechnikov’s, meaning both sides got what they wanted.  Jarvis only has one season above 40 points but that was 2023-24 when he had 67; clearly, both sides are banking on there being more to come.  The deal might be a bit above market at the start but should be a team-friendly pact before long.

Carolina was hoping that Kotkaniemi’s deal would follow that path but it hasn’t yet.  Even after accepting a pay cut following an inflated one-year offer sheet that Montreal elected not to match, the 2018 third-overall pick is now six years into his career but is still more of a bottom-six player than a top-six core element.  Still just 24, that could change yet but the odds of that happening are starting to lessen.  Carrier was an effective energy player for seven years in Vegas and opted for stability over trying to necessarily maximize his earnings with this contract.  Six years is risky for a role player but the AAV is low enough to largely mitigate that.

Slavin has quietly been a high-end defender for several years but has largely flown under the radar.  What limited him to an extent with his new contract is that he isn’t a high-end offensive threat which capped the overall upside.  Still, it would be fair to say that he left money on the table with the new agreement that starts next season and not just because there is a bit of deferred money in there as well.  Had he hit the open market next summer, an AAV starting with a seven and possibly an eight would have been doable.

Walker went from being a salary dump last summer to a quality top-four piece with Philadelphia and Colorado but the fact he wound up with less than $4MM a year suggests there was some skepticism that he could repeat that.  That should work in Carolina’s favor as even if he holds down a number four role for most of this contract, they should get good value from it.  If Walker can be as impactful as he was last season throughout the agreement, this will be a steal in a hurry.

Buyouts

None

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

None

Best Value: (non-entry-level) Kochetkov
Worst Value: Kotkaniemi

Looking Ahead

Money is going to be tight for Carolina this season as they’re likely to be right up against the Upper Limit.  Fast being LTIR-eligible will buy them some wiggle room when injuries strike but since cap space can’t be banked when a team is using it, they’re going to be a money-in, money-out team in 2024-25.

The Hurricanes have more longer-term money on the books than a lot of teams with over $64MM in commitments in 2025-26, nearly $56MM in 2026-27, and just under $42MM in 2027-28.  That said, there are enough contracts coming off the books those years to give GM Eric Tulsky some flexibility to tweak the core by re-signing or replacing those pieces but it might be a while before they’re able to make a big addition to strengthen what they already have.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

West Notes: Lehner, Perfetti, Jarventie

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Robin Lehner’s absence from Golden Knights training camp to take (and not pass) his physical has led to the team reportedly considering its options.  However, the netminder told Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman that his absence wasn’t unexpected:

All I can say at this time is everyone knows why I couldn’t be there. I am waiting calmly for things to be sorted out.

Vegas GM Kelly McCrimmon has already indicated that Lehner won’t be reporting to the team this season.  The 33-year-old hasn’t played the last two years after undergoing hip surgery and clearly, that will be three years based on McCrimmon’s statement.  He’ll be LTIR-eligible once again as a result but Friedman notes that the team, Lehner, and the NHLPA are working through the unique circumstances of this situation so it might not quite be as simple as it has been the last couple of seasons.

More from out West:

  • Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reported in the latest 32 Thoughts podcast (audio link) that Cole Perfetti’s camp is believed to be using Ottawa’s two-year, $7.5MM agreement as a comparable in contract discussions, one that the Jets would likely want to avoid. The numbers between the two are quite close; Perfetti has 75 points in 140 career NHL games while Pinto checks in at 70 in 140.  While Pinto’s agreement was actually his third contract, he wasn’t arbitration-eligible which still makes it a legitimate comparable agreement.  Clearly, Winnipeg is looking for this deal to come in below that price point.
  • New Oilers prospect Roby Jarventie will have to wait a little while longer to make his case for a roster spot. Jim Matheson of the Edmonton Journal notes that while the 22-year-old has recovered from his midseason knee surgery, he overcompensated on the other knee while recovering, leading to him needing to shut things down for a couple of weeks to recover.  Jarventie played in seven games with Ottawa last season while adding 20 points in 22 AHL games and was acquired from the Sens this summer in mid-July.

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