Five Key Stories: 6/21/21 – 6/27/21
The final full week of June has come and gone with the Stanley Cup Final being set between Montreal and Tampa Bay. Meanwhile, there was some notable news off the ice as well which is highlighted in the key stories of the week.
Gunnarsson Retires: Veteran defenseman Carl Gunnarsson has decided to call it a career at the age of 34. A right knee injury limited him to just a dozen games with the Blues this season so his career wraps up with 138 points in 629 regular season games between Toronto and St. Louis. Of course, he’ll best be remembered by St. Louis fans for his game-winning overtime goal in the second game of the 2019 Stanley Cup Final. It winds up being his only postseason tally in 82 games but it was certainly a critical one as it helped lead the Blues to the title.
Armia Enters COVID Protocol: The Canadiens could be without winger Joel Armia for the Stanley Cup Final as he has entered COVID protocol. The 28-year-old missed more than two weeks back in March following a positive test and if he has indeed tested positive again (more information is expected on Monday), he’ll miss the entire series. Armia has been an important piece of their surprising run, tying for the team lead in goals with five, including a pair of shorthanded tallies. Meanwhile, Montreal will soon get their head coach back as Dominique Ducharme will return for the third game of the series after testing positive for the virus last round.
Hakstol Hired: There were several different coaches linked to Seattle but Dave Hakstol wasn’t one of them. However, in the end, he was GM Ron Francis’ pick as the Kraken’s inaugural head coach after a lengthy search. This will be Hakstol’s second go-round as an NHL head coach as he spent three years behind the bench with Philadelphia; while they made the playoffs twice in that span, they were also eliminated in the first round both times. He spent the last two years as an assistant with Toronto and has head coaching experience in the NCAA and USHL as well. Francis wanted someone with NHL experience and while Hakstol was certainly under the radar, he is certainly an intriguing hire for the expansion franchise.
Exempt From Expansion: The NHL released the list of players who have medically been ruled exempt from the upcoming expansion draft. These are players who are not expected to play again due to long-term or chronic injury and features some that have effectively retired such as Chicago’s Brent Seabrook and Andrew Shaw and players that haven’t played in several years including Tampa Bay’s Marian Gaborik and Arizona’s Marian Hossa. Vancouver’s Micheal Ferland is one that’s still under contract and a return hasn’t been ruled out that was deemed exempt from selection as is Winnipeg’s Bryan Little although a return for him remains highly unlikely at this point.
Kurvers Passes Away: Minnesota assistant GM Tom Kurvers passed away at the age of 58 following a valiant battle with lung cancer. He was diagnosed more than two years ago but retailed his role in the front office during that time. Kurvers had an 11-year NHL playing career, suiting up in 659 games with seven different franchises before beginning an even longer journey off the ice. From 1998 through to this past week, he worked in several different capacities, working his way up from a scout to an assistant GM, making him a hockey lifer.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Offseason Checklist: Florida Panthers
The offseason is in full flight with only two teams still standing. We continue our series which examines what those eliminated teams need to accomplish over the coming months. Next up is a look at Florida.
Expectations were relatively low for Florida heading into the season. While GM Bill Zito made some changes, they weren’t expected to be a team that was going to contend. However, they wound up being one point out of the Central Division lead and were only three away from tying for the league lead. While they were ousted in the opening round by Tampa Bay, they’re still entering the summer with some momentum. Here’s a look at what Zito should be trying to accomplish over the coming months.
Clear Out A Contract
At the end of their series against the Lightning, two of Florida’s three highest-paid players – goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky and defenseman Keith Yandle – weren’t even in uniform. Anton Stralman, who is sixth on that list, cleared waivers during the season and had more of a limited role than usual. That’s nearly $22MM on their books (about 30% of their payroll) either sitting on the bench or not living up to expectations. On a team that isn’t spending to the Upper Limit already, that’s not ideal.
Bobrovsky’s $10MM AAV for the next five years is going to be difficult to move but if they’re willing to retain a sizable chunk, perhaps there’s a move to be made. Chris Driedger is a pending UFA that they would like to keep around but as long as Bobrovsky and top prospect Spencer Knight are there, there will be better opportunities for him elsewhere. Dealing Bobrovsky away, even at a loss in terms of taking back a contract and retaining some money, could allow them to try to keep Driedger around.
Yandle’s ironman streak remains intact at 922 games as playoff contests don’t count. He sits 42 behind Doug Jarvis for the all-time record but that would appear to be in some jeopardy given that he wasn’t in the lineup when it mattered the most. Both sides looked at the possibility of a change of scenery back in training camp when it looked like he’d be on the outside looking in and it may be time to revisit that. With two years left at $6.35MM, it’s another negative-value contract but Yandle certainly can still contribute offensively as long as he’s sheltered in a lower role on the depth chart. It’d be a swap of bad contracts but it might still be worth doing.
As for Stralman, he only has one year left at $5.5MM and he can still play in a limited role so he is probably the easiest to move of the three, relatively speaking. A trade with max retention would be preferable to a buyout (which would cost $2.5MM in 2021-22 and $1.5MM in 2022-23) and could potentially still free up some money in the process.
As a budget team, there are already restrictions in place. Those can’t be compounded by deadweight contracts. It won’t be easy for Zito to accomplish but they can’t have that much money tied up in negative-value deals if they want to take a step forward.
Barkov Extension Talks
This is the biggest item on their to-do list. Captain Aleksander Barkov is about to enter the final year of his six-year, $35.4MM contract, a deal that has been among the most team-friendly pacts around the league in recent years. When second-line centers are getting that type of money, getting one of the best all-around pivots in the league at that price tag is quite the bargain.
That will soon change, however. The 25-year-old is set to hit the open market next summer in the prime of his career and with it, his price tag is going to shoot up considerably. Forget the flat salary cap and how it knocked down a lot of the UFA market back in the fall. The top players still got paid pretty much top dollar and Barkov is very much a top player. It’s rare that players like him actually make it to free agency so there will undoubtedly be a bidding war if he gets there. He knows it and so does Zito.
As a result, expect Florida to put their best foot forward in the coming months to lock up their franchise player to a max-term deal at a price tag that will almost certainly hit eight figures. We know cap space won’t be an issue since they’re not particularly close to the Upper Limit anyway but this is the type of player they need to break their budget to keep around.
The lingering question will be what do they do if they can’t agree on a contract or Barkov indicates that he’s not willing to sign, similar to what Seth Jones has done in Columbus. It’s a scenario they certainly won’t want to think about but if it happens, Zito will have to react quickly to decide whether they should trade Barkov now or hope he changes his mind in-season. But first things first. Before even pondering that scenario, they’ll be extending a significant extension offer to try to keep the Selke winner around.
Add Defensive Help
The back end has been an area of concern for Florida for a while and that was highlighted even more this season. Aaron Ekblad’s season-ending leg fracture was a huge blow down the stretch and the fact that Yandle and Stralman underachieved considerably certainly didn’t help either. MacKenzie Weegar had a breakout year and Gustav Forsling logged nearly 20 minutes a game as a waiver claim but that was about it for positives.
The Panthers are in a spot where they could conceivably add two or three defenders this summer and it wouldn’t feel like overkill. Deadline acquisition Brandon Montour, a pending unrestricted free agent, will need to be re-signed or replaced and at a minimum, adding a top-four piece would go a long way.
Florida landed the top player in college free agency in Matt Kiersted and he looked okay down the stretch but he’s not ready for full-time NHL duty yet; he’ll need some time in the minors. There aren’t any other prospects that are ready to step into a regular role either so the improvement will need to come from outside the organization.
Re-Sign RFAs
Florida has a pair of intriguing restricted free agents on their roster. Winger Anthony Duclair was a surprising non-tender by Ottawa last fall and had to wait nearly two months to land with Florida. His qualifying offer of $1.65MM is certainly reasonable with the year he had but as was the case last October, arbitration eligibility looms large. Back in the fall, the threshold to walk away from an award was $4,538,958 and while Duclair had a good season with 10 goals and 22 assists in 43 games, he shouldn’t come in that high. Do they want to risk him being awarded something they’re not willing to pay and can’t walk away from? With that uncertainty, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Zito push to try to get something done over the next month before the tender deadline hits.
The other interesting one is Sam Bennett. With Calgary, it looked like the 25-year-old could be non-tendered over receiving a $2.55MM qualifying offer as he was unhappy and struggling. Then came a deadline day deal to Florida and he absolutely took off, notching 15 points in 10 regular season games plus five more in five playoff contests. That’s certainly a small sample size and it will make Bennett’s next contract a little tricky. Was this a short-term blip or a sign of things to come now that he’s being deployed in a better situation? Are the two sides sure enough of each other to do a long-term agreement or would a one-year contract make more sense? At a minimum, he’s a safe bet to be qualified which wasn’t the case just a few months ago.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.
Minnesota Will Allow Mats Zuccarello To Play In Olympic Qualifiers
Wild winger Mats Zuccarello has been granted permission from the team to suit up for Norway at the Olympic qualifying tournament this summer, the veteran confirmed to VG’s Oystein Jarlsbo and Helge Mikalsen. It will be his first time suiting up for the national team since 2017.
The 33-year-old is coming off of one of his better seasons statistically, in terms of per-game numbers as he put up 11 goals and 24 assists in 42 games; his 0.83 points per game average tied the highest of his career. Not surprisingly, he’ll immediately become Norway’s top offensive threat in the tournament. This will be his second time playing in the Olympic qualifiers with his first attempt coming four years ago where he led the Norwegians in scoring with five points in three games.
There are three sets of Olympic qualifying tournaments being held this summer with the winner from each earning the final three spots. Norway will host a group with South Korea, Slovenia, and Denmark. Slovakia will host the group with Austria, Belarus, and Poland, while Latvia hosts France, Italy, and Hungary. There are a handful of NHL players from those countries and those teams will need to decide soon whether or not they will be allowing them to participate like Minnesota has done with Zuccarello.
PHR Mailbag: San Jose’s Defense, Seattle, Larkin, Islanders, Hamilton, Bruins, Oilers, Flyers, Laine
Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include San Jose’s expansion situation for their back end, potential side deals and targets for Seattle, Dylan Larkin’s future with Detroit, how to free up cap space for the Islanders, Dougie Hamilton’s trade value, Boston’s drafting, Edmonton’s need for better complementary forwards, Philadelphia’s summer, and Patrik Laine. If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag.
The Mistake of Giving Eugene Melnyk a Liver Transplant: Could Doug Wilson convince Vlasic and Karlsson to waive their NMCs and then protect 8 forwards/0 defensemen?
That’s certainly a creative idea although it would be tricky to do that and stay in compliance with the requirement for having two signed forwards under contract that played 27 games this year or 54 in the past two combined. When Gavin looked at their expansion situation last week, they were at zero eligible forwards to begin with. Adding an extra forward to the protected list is going to make fulfilling that particular obligation that much tougher.
But if they can sign enough forwards that qualify to do that, it would definitely be an avenue worth pursuing. Marc-Edouard Vlasic and Erik Karlsson aren’t getting picked because of their contract and neither is Brent Burns. That would certainly limit their exposure to either losing Radim Simek, Josef Korenar (as a depth goalie), or a depth forward. If they can do that, they’d come out of expansion as one of the more fortunate teams in the league.
jdgoat: Who do you think works out a side deal with Seattle? Also, who will be the most expensive players they end up with?
Washington looks like a strong candidate given that they have to keep their cheap goaltending tandem intact. There’s no way to protect both Ilya Samsonov and Vitek Vanecek and whichever one is unprotected would be tempting for the Kraken so a move will need to be made there. Tampa Bay is certainly going to try to make a move to entice Seattle to take a pricey contract (Tyler Johnson seems like the speculative fit there). Calgary could very well wind up leaving Mark Giordano unprotected but it’s hard to imagine they won’t try to find a way to keep their captain around. If Minnesota can’t find a trade taker for Mathew Dumba in time, they’ll undoubtedly try to make a side deal as well to avoid losing him for nothing. The same can be said for St. Louis and Vince Dunn.
I think the most expensive player they wind up with may very well come from Philadelphia. Jakub Voracek ($8.25MM) and James van Riemsdyk ($7MM) could both be unprotected and would jump onto Seattle’s top line right away. Both commitments are relatively short-term (three years for Voracek, two for van Riemsdyk) so there isn’t much long-term risk here. I can’t see anyone more expensive than one of those two being selected.
pawtucket: Which UFAs should Seattle go after to compliment the plethora of 3rd line forwards and 5th/6th d-men they get from the expansion draft?
A lot depends on their plans. Are they looking to win right away or are they eyeing a more gradual buildup which is what most expansion teams wind up going through? If it’s the former, then they’re going to go after the likes of Dougie Hamilton and Gabriel Landeskog if they get to the open market. If it’s the latter, however (and I suspect it is), then it’s all about short-term contracts.
Why? Rental players are always in demand but in this cap environment, not having lingering obligations beyond the current season is even more appealing. So if I’m GM Ron Francis and thinking more about two or three years from now, I want players that are easy to flip for extra picks or prospects to start building up their system. They won’t have an AHL team next season but Palm Springs will start in 2022-23 so what’s a good way to start building that team? By flipping a bunch of rentals at the trade deadline.
Who can still contribute to a team but will likely be stuck taking a one-year deal in free agency? It’s a long list and that’s where Seattle should be shopping on the open market.
Eaton Harass: Any chance Larkin is available? He’d be a perfect fit for a team like the Avs or Rangers. They definitely have the pieces to get it done.
I don’t think Dylan Larkin is available or should be but I’ll qualify that by noting that I remember writing in a previous mailbag that Anthony Mantha wouldn’t be going anywhere at the deadline and we all know how that turned out. Teams need capable veteran leadership and while Larkin isn’t exactly a veteran, he’s pretty close to one on this team. He’s also young enough to be part of that next core which is still probably a few years away. It’s worth noting that he’s an unrestricted free agent in 2023 and if he gives an indication that he doesn’t want to stay, then yes, move him. But that feels like a discussion to be had next summer when he’s eligible for a contract extension more than one that needs to happen now.
I’m not sure either Colorado or New York would be a perfect fit either. If the Avs are able to keep Gabriel Landeskog and Philipp Grubauer (both pending UFAs), they’ll pretty much be capped out re-signing their own talent (which also includes Cale Makar as an RFA). Is Detroit going to take a return centered around Nazem Kadri for Larkin? Probably not. As for the Rangers, Larkin is a good center but is he a true number one? That’s what they need. If he’s in that tier that’s slightly below a top center, they already have that in Mika Zibanejad, assuming they’re able to extend him. Sure, he’d be an upgrade on Ryan Strome on a long-term basis but I feel their top trade chips should be saved for someone that can be more impactful offensively or at least be guaranteed to be around longer than two years, the remaining term of Larkin’s contract.
Joe422: Nobody ever knows what Lou is thinking but the Islanders need to free up cap space to sign their RFA and resign Cizikas. What does Lou do? Trade Nick Leddy? What would he get back? A 2nd and a 3rd round pick? Could you also see Jordan Eberle being left unprotected and Kyle Palmieri be re-signed for less annual $ than Eberle?
Let’s look at that cap situation first. Per PuckPedia, they have about $75.7MM in commitments to 17 players with, as you noted, Casey Cizikas and Kyle Palmieri among the pending UFAs while Anthony Beauvillier and Ilya Sorokin are among the RFAs. Even with Johnny Boychuk being eligible for LTIR (allowing them to spend up to $6MM past the cap), you’re absolutely correct in that they need to shed salary.
Leo Komarov and Andrew Ladd look like candidates to be full-season members with AHL Bridgeport, clearing up $1.125MM in space for each of them though those amounts are offset by needing to replace them with someone making close to the minimum. Still, there’s a few hundred thousand in savings. Cal Clutterbuck feels like another possible cap casualty, either through waivers or even a buyout. He plays an important role but he’s way too expensive for that role. Ross Johnston could also be waived and farmed out with someone making the minimum replacing him, saving $250K.
I expect Cizikas will return at a lower price tag than $3.35MM. He will be sought after by a lot of teams but most teams can’t pay fourth liners that type of money and that includes the Islanders. If the offers are near the $2MM mark, he’ll probably stay put.
I don’t see Palmieri sticking around for a couple of reasons. The first is that I don’t think they’ll leave Eberle unprotected and even if they did, does Seattle find his $5.5MM price tag for three more years appealing? The second is that I wouldn’t be surprised if Palmieri covets a bigger role than what he had with the Islanders as he was more of a middle-six player than a top-six one (and while both of those involve the second line, I think there’s a distinction between the two).
I agree that Leddy feels like a cap casualty but how strong is his market? They’d have preferred to trade him instead of Devon Toews a year ago so they can’t expect to get a similar return as they got for Toews for Leddy now. If there’s going to be an expansion casualty, I think it might be him. I like Leddy and he’s a serviceable second-pairing defender. However, this is not a good market to be dumping money and he also is at $5.5MM but just for one more year. If I’m Seattle, Leddy’s contract is more attractive than Eberle’s if it came to that. While they’d need to replace him, they should be able to re-sign Adam Pelech and a Leddy replacement for that money (plus Pelech’s previous $1.6MM AAV).
Sorokin looks like a candidate for a bridge deal to keep his cost down and if they go short-term with Beauvillier (even a one-year contract), they can keep the cost manageable. With the other small cap savings, they should be able to stay cap compliant.
mikedickinson: $8 million seems insane for Hamilton. He looked lost when Slavin was out during the Nashville series. As a Canes fan, what could we expect for compensation? Also, if Dougie leaves, any chance we make a run at Jones, if he’d sign for less than Hamilton?
The one downside to doing what they did by letting his camp talk to teams is that it took away any possibility of doing what they did with Joel Edmundson last fall, flipping his rights to Montreal for a fifth-round pick. Why trade for exclusive rights when you can already talk to him? If Hamilton doesn’t really want an eighth year on his contract if the money isn’t as high as he wants, the sign-and-trade isn’t as important either; he can get his seven years from anyone.
I can’t see the return for Hamilton in an extend-and-trade deal being too substantial. The acquiring team will probably send a contract back to help offset the money and Carolina will be compensated for taking that salary offset on in the form of a draft pick or prospect. I know that sounds underwhelming but unless Hamilton goes to Carolina and gives them a list of a few teams to choose from, it’s going to be tough to get any sort of bidding war going. That’s what drives the trade price up and without that element, they don’t have a lot of leverage.
Knowing the emphasis that Carolina puts on their back end, I wouldn’t rule out a run at Seth Jones entirely but that’s an in-division trade for Columbus and I doubt that’s their preference. But yeah, I think they’d kick the tires at least and someone like Brady Skjei, who has three years left at a reasonable rate for a second-pairing player, could be of some interest to the Blue Jackets. I suspect they want to send him out West if they can, however.
No Progress In Contract Talks For Conor Garland
Coyotes winger Conor Garland is coming off a career season that saw him collect 12 goals and 27 assists in just 49 games. The timing of that year couldn’t have been better as while he played under a bargain deal the last two years with an AAV of just $775K, that contract is now over. Garland now gets to hit restricted free agency with salary arbitration eligibility which has him well-positioned for a significant raise.
On the surface, it would seem as if this would be a situation where GM Bill Armstrong might want to get a head start on discussions on a new deal but that doesn’t appear to be the case. Garland’s agent Peter Cooney told Daily Faceoff’s Frank Seravalli that the team requested two types of contract proposals on May 20th. Those were submitted but Cooney notes that there has been no communication since then which calls into his question his future with Arizona.
It’s certainly not the first time this has been the case as there were reports before the trade deadline that the team was willing to move Garland for the right price, one that they obviously didn’t get. But clearly, Armstrong isn’t sold on the winger being a must-keep part of their long-term future which, for a team that struggles offensively, is a little odd.
The Coyotes have over $31MM in cap room this offseason per CapFriendly so the hesitancy certainly isn’t cap-related although Arizona’s internal budget could be a factor. They will have to rebuild a significant portion of their back end this summer with four regulars set to hit the open market and Oliver Ekman-Larsson’s future with the team in question as well. If they want to use Garland as a trade chip, he could be dangled to fill one of those holes on the back end although it would also create a big one to fill on the wing.
Lots can change between now and the deadline to file for arbitration which should come in near the beginning of August but for now, it certainly seems as if Garland’s time in Arizona is rather tenuous. He’ll be an interesting player to watch for on the trade market in the coming weeks as a result.
Poll: Who Will Win The 2021 Stanley Cup?
The 2020-21 NHL season has been an adventurous one and that’s putting it lightly. From a delayed start to rapid in-season scheduling changes, there have been plenty of hiccups along the way but they managed to make it through the abbreviated regular season schedule and the first three rounds of the playoffs. Included in the schedule this season, of course, were new divisions with the end result being that a team that’s normally in the East won the trophy that typically goes to the winner of the Western Conference. In a year like this though, there have been stranger things than that.
In the end, there are just two teams remaining. One is the defending Stanley Cup champion that many expected to be in the mix to win it again. The other is a team that lost more games than it won during the regular season and virtually no one expected them to make it anywhere near this far.
Let’s start with Tampa Bay. The defending champs added a healthy Nikita Kucherov to the mix for the playoffs after he missed the entire season due to hip surgery and he hasn’t missed a beat; his 27 points not only lead the team but lead the entire league in scoring so far. Brayden Point just had a nine-game goal stretch snapped in Friday’s series-clinching victory over the Islanders and the end result is an attack that is averaging the second-most goals per game of any playoff team at 3.22 (Colorado was first, averaging 3.8 in their two series). They’re also one of the stingiest defensive teams with Andrei Vasilevskiy pitching four shutouts already.
As for Montreal, they’ve won with a balanced lineup that has taken turns scoring just enough in key moments to get them over the top. Cole Caufield – who was playing college hockey three months ago – has turned into a key cog offensively while Nick Suzuki has elevated his play in the playoffs for the second straight year as well. Carey Price is playing some of the best hockey of his career and their penalty kill has been nothing short of outstanding. They haven’t allowed a power play goal in 13 games – an NHL playoff record – and have killed off 30 straight opportunities (outscoring their opponents 3-0 along the way).
That theme may very well be the most interesting one of the series (even more than the goalie matchup) – Montreal’s dominant penalty kill versus Tampa Bay’s elite power play which is clicking along at a whopping 37.7%. While there haven’t been a lot of penalties called in the playoffs, special teams have been game-changers for both teams so far. Will that trend continue for one of them?
It’s a unique Stanley Cup matchup, one that we’re unlikely to see again since the league is going back to its usual conference format for 2021-22 and beyond. Which team will come out victorious? Will the Lightning make it two in a row or will the Canadiens pull off one more upset? Make your prediction by voting in the poll below.
Who Will Win The 2021 Stanley Cup?
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Lightning in 6 29% (470)
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Canadiens in 6 24% (391)
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Lightning in 5 21% (343)
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Canadiens in 7 15% (244)
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Lightning in 4 5% (82)
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Lightning in 7 3% (54)
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Canadiens in 5 2% (40)
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Canadiens in 5 1% (24)
Total votes: 1,648
Mobile users, click here to vote.
Beau Bennett Announces Retirement
Free agent winger Beau Bennett has decided to call it a career, announcing (Twitter link) that he has retired. The 29-year-old didn’t play this season and in his announcement, he cited injuries as a reason for the decision.
Bennett spent parts of six seasons in the NHL after being a first-round pick of the Penguins (20th overall) back in 2010. While he showed some flashes of offensive upside over 129 games with Pittsburgh, he was never able to lock down a full-time roster spot and eventually was moved to New Jersey in 2016. He had a career year with the Devils that season but was still non-tendered, eventually signing with the Blues as a free agent but spent most of 2017-18 in the minors. Bennett was last on an NHL contract in 2019-20 with Arizona but despite finishing fourth in scoring with AHL Tucson, he didn’t get an opportunity with the Coyotes.
In the end, Bennett wound up with 200 career NHL games played, tallying 20 goals and 44 assists. While that’s not a great return from a first-round selection, there were eight others taken in the first round that have less NHL experience than he does and he sits 22nd in scoring among first-round picks from that draft class. Instead of attempting a comeback to try to add to his point total, he’s moving on from playing and will now work with amateur and youth hockey players.
Expansion Primer: Montreal Canadiens
Over the next few weeks, we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, who will likely warrant protection, and which ones may be on the block to avoid the risk of losing them for nothing? Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4:00 PM CDT on July 17th. The full eligibility rules can be found here, while CapFriendly has an expansion tool to make your own lists.
Back in 2017, the Canadiens lost Alexei Emelin to Vegas. Unless they want to risk losing a notable forward this time around, history could repeat itself with Seattle likely to be interested in one of Montreal’s blueliners.
Eligible Players (Non-UFA)
Forwards:
Josh Anderson, Joseph Blandisi, Paul Byron, Laurent Dauphin, Jonathan Drouin, Jake Evans, Brendan Gallagher (NMC), Charles Hudon, Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Artturi Lehkonen, Michael Pezzetta, Tyler Toffoli, Lukas Vejdemo
Defense:
Ben Chiarot, Joel Edmundson, Cale Fleury, Brett Kulak, Xavier Ouellet, Jeff Petry (NMC), Shea Weber
Goalies:
Jake Allen, Michael McNiven, Carey Price (NMC)
Notable Unrestricted Free Agents
F Joel Armia, F Phillip Danault, F Michael Frolik, D Erik Gustafsson, D Jonathon Merrill, F Corey Perry, F Eric Staal, F Tomas Tatar
Notable Exemptions
F Cole Caufield, F Ryan Poehling, G Cayden Primeau, D Alexander Romanov, F Nick Suzuki, F Jesse Ylonen
Key Decisions
The goaltending one is pretty easy. Price will be protected and Allen, beginning a cheaper two-year deal next season, will be exposed. He will certainly be under consideration by the Kraken.
On the back end, Petry’s no-move clause means he’ll be protected and while Weber’s contract could be viewed as enough of a deterrent to leave him exposed, his performance in the playoffs so far makes that unlikely. It would be difficult for Montreal to leave their captain available.
If they go with the standard 7/3/1 scheme, that only leaves one spot left and a trio of interesting options to choose from. A few years ago, Chiarot was a role player with Winnipeg and at the time he signed his three-year, $10.5MM deal with the Canadiens, it seemed like quite the overpayment. Then he played his way onto the top pairing, a spot he maintained for a lot of this year. He’s the only full-time skater to not record a point so far in the playoffs but he’s also averaging 25:37 per game, just one second behind Weber for the team lead. Even though that’s not necessarily the ideal role for him, Chiarot would probably be one of Seattle’s better rearguards and with him being on an affordable expiring contract, he’s someone that could yield a notable return if they looked to flip him.
Then there’s Edmundson. While his four-year, $14MM contract also looked like a small overpayment (especially considering the way the UFA market went), he played quite well with Petry this season and certainly solidified their top-four. That has continued in the playoffs where he’s up over 23 minutes per game. All of a sudden, his $3.5MM price tag for three more years could be viewed as appealing.
Kulak also warrants a mention. His possession stats have generally been well above average but that hasn’t resulted in a lot of playing time, including in their playoff run. But Seattle appears to be a team that is highly invested in analytics and viewed through those stats, he could be more attractive than Chiarot or Edmundson while basically being half the price.
Up front, there are four safe bets to be protected in Gallagher, Anderson, Toffoli, and Kotkaniemi. Things get a little trickier from there, however.
The key to Montreal’s expansion strategy is Drouin. Heading into the season, the thought of leaving him unprotected would have seemed unrealistic. However, he struggled to score this season, scoring just twice in 44 games, hardly an ideal output from a $5.5MM contract. He missed the end of the regular season plus all of the playoffs on a personal leave of absence, one that has yielded more questions than answers. When will he come back? Will he come back at all? If he does, will it be with Montreal or will there be a trade request? With the uncertainty surrounding his situation, his contract (which has two years left), and his struggles this season, Drouin’s trade value is arguably at an all-time low. Would Seattle take a swing on the potential upside or would the questions scare them off, making it more beneficial to leave him unprotected? GM Marc Bergevin will have a few more weeks to try to figure out the answers to those questions.
Evans is another potential wild card. His NHL experience is relatively limited (just 60 career regular season games) but the 25-year-old did well in limited playoff action and is nearing a return. He’s also signed for another year at the league minimum. Center depth among unprotected players around the league may not be the greatest so a cheap youngster could interest Seattle GM Ron Francis. Montreal might want to protect him but they’re a team that has a lot of unsigned players right now; to meet the requirement of two signed skaters with enough games played, he might have to be made available, especially if they don’t want to take the chance of losing Drouin.
Lehkonen is someone whose regular season potentially had him in that iffy zone of being qualified at $2.2MM with arbitration rights. He’s undoubtedly a strong defensive forward but aside from his rookie season, he hasn’t been much of a goal scorer (although he did get the series-winner against Vegas) and the open market wasn’t kind to those players in the fall. He has helped his value to the point where he’s probably protected in a 7/3/1 scheme but he could also be a capable checker for the Kraken if they protect the four defensemen.
Projected Protection List
F Josh Anderson
F Brendan Gallagher (NMC)
F Jesperi Kotkaniemi
F Tyler Toffoli
D Ben Chiarot
D Joel Edmundson
D Jeff Petry (NMC)
D Shea Weber
G Carey Price (NMC)
Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist
When Vegas had their expansion draft, a minimum of two forwards and one defenseman had to be exposed that were under contract and played either 40 games in the most recent season or 70 over the past two combined. Due to the pandemic, those thresholds have been changed to 27 games played in 2020-21 or 54 in 2019/20 and 2020-21 combined. In creating our expansion list for each team in this series, we will ensure that these criteria are met.
Forwards (3): Paul Byron, Jonathan Drouin, Jake Evans
Defensemen (1): Brett Kulak
There are a few different ways that Francis could go here. Adding Allen is certainly a safe decision; he isn’t a true number one but can still play 40-45 games and at $2.875MM, he’s on an affordable contract and would be part of the plans beyond 2021-22. Drouin has the most upside but the highest risk of any of the skaters unprotected. Lehkonen (who isn’t listed above since he’s a restricted free agent and the above group is only for signed players) would be a viable middle-six forward while Evans and Kulak are more under the radar options but could be picked as well.
For Montreal to switch to a 7/3/1 scheme, they need to get another forward signed. Giving Perry a new deal and then exposing him with Byron (while protecting Drouin, Lehkonen, and Evans) would meet the exposure requirements but would also run the risk of losing Chiarot or Edmundson. With the way they’ve played in the playoffs, whichever is left available could very well become the favorite to be selected. While their mindset is justifiably on the Stanley Cup Final against Tampa Bay, there will need to be some decisions made soon on the expansion front.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.
East Notes: Capitals Cap Overage, Jankowski, Lycksell
Washington will be facing a bonus overage penalty of nearly $473K for next season, Mike Vogel of the Capitals’ team site relays (Twitter link). Defenseman Zdeno Chara reached his games played and playoff qualification bonuses while goaltender Ilya Samsonov met his shutout bonus mark as well. With the team being in LTIR all season long due to injuries to blueliner Michal Kempny and goaltender Henrik Lundqvist, they were never in a position to bank any space during the season that could have offset those bonuses. The Caps already have over $72MM in commitments for next season per CapFriendly and still have to re-sign captain Alex Ovechkin, Samsonov, and round out the rest of their roster. GM Brian MacLellan will undoubtedly be working hard in the coming weeks to free up some much-needed cap flexibility.
More from the East Division:
- The Penguins are unlikely to tender center Mark Jankowski a qualifying offer next month, suggests Seth Rorabaugh of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. The 26-year-old signed a minimum-salary contract after being non-tendered by Calgary back in the fall in a move that looked like a good one for both sides at the time. However, he was largely ineffective during the season and was a healthy scratch down the stretch and for their entire first-round series. Jankowski is only owed a qualifying offer of $750K – next season’s league minimum – but with arbitration eligibility, he could get a bit more than that in a hearing. With their cap situation, that little bit more is probably more than they can afford for a player on the fringes of the roster.
- Flyers prospect Olle Lycksell signed his entry-level contract last month but the team will have to wait a little while longer to get him to North America as Vaxjo of the SHL announced that they’ve added the 21-year-old forward on loan for the entire 2021-22 season. Despite not playing in Philadelphia’s system next season, Lycksell will still burn the first year of his contract.
Free Agent Focus: Boston Bruins
Free agency is now just a little more than a month away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up. There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in late July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well. Boston is set to have several core players hit the open market, giving them a lot of payroll flexibility to work with in the coming weeks.
Key Restricted Free Agents
D Brandon Carlo – Carlo isn’t going to win any scoring titles but he has been a reliable stay-at-home defenseman throughout his five years in Boston and his absence was certainly felt when multiple upper-body injuries kept him out of the lineup for big stretches in the second half of the season plus the last few games of their series against the Islanders. He’s owed a $3.5MM qualifying offer next month and despite limited offensive production, they should be comfortable tendering it. However, it’s also hard to see him getting much more than that despite being arbitration-eligible unless they work out a long-term pact that buys out his two remaining RFA years plus several seasons of UFA eligibility.
F Nick Ritchie – While it wasn’t a career year from a points perspective, the 25-year-old set a new career-high in goals with 15 while surpassing the 15 minute per game mark for the first time. Consistency has long been an issue for the 2014 tenth-overall selection but Ritchie certainly took some steps in the right direction. His qualifying offer is set at $2MM while he has arbitration eligibility for the first time as well. He took enough strides this season that he should be tendered but he doesn’t have enough of a track record to seek much more than that.
F Ondrej Kase – Kase is being mentioned simply because it would be stunning to see him be tendered next month. He was limited to just three games this season due to multiple upper-body injuries and had struggled over his previous two seasons as well. That’s not worth a $2.6MM offer in this market; Boston would be wise to put use money elsewhere.
Other RFAs: F Trent Frederic, F Cameron Hughes, F Joona Koppanen, F Robert Lantosi, F Zachary Senyshyn, D Nick Wolff
Key Unrestricted Free Agents
F Taylor Hall – For the second straight year, the 29-year-old will be one of the more prominent players on the open market. However, there’s no doubt that his value has taken a nosedive along the way after struggling mightily in Buffalo as his plans to have a strong season and then sign with more teams showing interest didn’t go as well as planned. He facilitated a trade to Boston at the deadline and turned things around down the stretch and in the playoffs which will certainly help his cause in free agency. That is, assuming he gets there. Hall and the Bruins have openly expressed a mutual interest in getting another deal done and unless Hall’s asking price is too high, there should be a good chance of getting something in place although it will be a fair bit lower than the $8MM he made this season.
F David Krejci – Unlike Hall whose time in Boston has been limited, Krejci has been a fixture in their lineup for the past 14 years and has been their second-line center for a significant portion of that. The 35-year-old has been a steady offensive presence and showed no signs of slowing down this season, notching 44 points in 51 games. There has also been publicly stated mutual interest in getting a deal in place with Krejci saying he can’t see himself playing for a different NHL team than the Bruins. He’s also facing a dip in pay as it’s quite unlikely he’ll match the $7.25MM AAV he has had for each of the past six seasons.
G Tuukka Rask – Wouldn’t you know it, here’s another veteran who has made it clear he wants to stay in Boston and has no intention of going anywhere else. The difference is that Rask won’t be available for the first half of next season after undergoing hip surgery. It’s obvious he’ll be facing a significant cut from his $7MM AAV from the past eight years but the question is whether or not they can afford to run with a short-term partner for youngster Jeremy Swayman or whether they’ll need a full-season piece which could then take Rask out of the equation. If they do look for a full-season option, Jaroslav Halak, another Boston UFA, could be an option to return.
D Mike Reilly – Another trade deadline acquisition, Reilly played a big role after being acquired, averaging over 21 minutes per game down the stretch and in the playoffs. Not bad for someone that had barely averaged 16 minutes a night over his first five NHL seasons. The 27-year-old also had a career year offensively, collecting 27 assists in 55 games. His stock has certainly gone up from being a role player who could have been in tough to match his $1.5MM price tag to one that quietly could generate a fair amount of interest on the open market. And yes, Reilly has also publicly expressed an interest in returning.
Other UFAs: D Steven Kampfer, F Sean Kuraly, F Greg McKegg, D Kevan Miller, D Jarred Tinordi
Projected Cap Space
With so many veterans on expiring deals, Boston currently has a little over $31MM in cap room for next season and even after re-signing their restricted free agents, they’ll have plenty of space to work with. However, they also will have several spots to fill. Whether it’s re-signing the veterans that want to stick around or replacing them with similar players, GM Don Sweeney is in for a very busy summer.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.