Oilers Making Progress On A Contract For Adam Larsson
Earlier this week, Edmonton ticked one big item off their to-do list with the re-signing of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins to an eight-year, $42MM contract. Now, their focus is set on re-upping pending UFA defenseman Adam Larsson and it appears that progress is being made on those discussions. Larsson’s agent J.P. Barry told Daniel Nugent-Bowman of The Athletic (subscription link) that there is an emphasis on the length of the deal but that talks are going well:
We’re making progress on a contract. Sometimes teams like to move quicker than players. He’s just thinking about everything. We’re getting there. There are a few things we can still discuss.
We’d like to get some term. He’s a pretty young free agent defenseman.
Barry is certainly correct in noting that Larsson is fairly young for a blueliner with the type of experience he has. He is only 28 but already has 10 years under his belt after making the jump to the NHL as an 18-year-old after New Jersey made him the fourth-overall pick back in 2011.
While Larsson has carved out a solid NHL career with over 600 NHL games under his belt, he’s also not the top-pairing defender the Devils hoped he’d be. However, he has turned into a capable stay-at-home player on the second pairing but this isn’t a great situation to be entering free agency with limited point totals and a flat salary cap. While Larsson improved on his numbers from a year ago, he still only managed 10 points in 56 regular season games this season. That will certainly restrict how expensive his next deal will be.
As it turns out, Larsson may actually be facing a small dip in pay after coming off a six-year, $25MM contract. Deals given to Joel Edmundson and Brenden Dillon last summer both checked in under the $4MM mark and serve as reasonable comparables to Larsson. Both landed four-year deals as well which makes Barry’s comment about term more notable as it seems unlikely Larsson would settle for something with fewer years than that.
Assuming they’re able to get something done – Nugent-Bowman suggests something could be done as soon as next week – that should all but close the door on Tyson Barrie returning. A new deal for Larsson would put him, Ethan Bear, and Evan Bouchard on the right side of the depth chart for Edmonton. At some point, they need to get Bouchard – the tenth-overall pick in 2018 – into the lineup and bringing both Larsson and Barrie back would make that difficult.
While many teams will want to wait to re-sign their pending unrestricted free agents for expansion purposes, Edmonton’s situation is cleaner than most teams. A re-signed Larsson would likely push Caleb Jones away from being protected but both he and William Lagesson (another projected exposed player) have had limited roles so far in their NHL careers. Losing one of them to Seattle would still put them in a better situation than a lot of teams. Accordingly, there’s no reason to delay finalizing a contract and ensuring that Larsson sticks around for the foreseeable future.
Predators Hoping To Make An Expansion Trade With Seattle
After a lot of side deals that were made with Vegas didn’t exactly work out for the other team, some have wondered if there will be less of those this time around. Some general managers have suggested their intentions is just to lose who they lose and be done but that isn’t the case for Nashville. In an appearance on ESPN 102.5 The Game (audio link) following the Viktor Arvidsson trade on Thursday, GM David Poile indicated his preference would be to get a side deal in place:
Ideally, if we could strike a deal to determine a certain player who we would lose, I’d like to do that.
They effectively had an opportunity to make an arrangement with the Kraken with Arvidsson who Poile acknowledged would have been left unprotected and selected by Seattle had it not been for the trade with Los Angeles. In the end, his preference was to get some assets in return for the veteran and they did just that by picking up second and third-round draft picks.
Nashville is in a situation where they will almost certainly want to protect four defensemen, limiting them to just being able to protect four forwards. With that in mind, they’re likely to leave high-priced veterans in Matt Duchene and Ryan Johansen. Making a move to clear one of those contracts off the books would certainly help free up some extra flexibility but with both signed long-term at $8MM apiece, a trade like that isn’t the most realistic.
Arvidsson’s departure now allows them to protect someone like Calle Jarnkrok which would then push Nick Cousins and Rocco Grimaldi to the forefront of likely exposed forwards with veterans Matt Benning and Mark Borowiecki the notable blueliners that would be available. On the surface, a side deal doesn’t appear to be needed as none of those are core players but evidently, Poile would like to have some more certainty surrounding who he’s going to lose. With the expansion draft being less than three weeks away, time is quickly ticking for him to make a deal to get that certainty in place.
Offseason Checklist: Nashville Predators
The offseason is in full flight with only two teams still standing. We continue our series which examines what those eliminated teams need to accomplish over the coming months. Next up is a look at Nashville.
It was another season of hanging around the middle for the Predators. They managed to secure the final playoff spot in the Central before being dispatched by Carolina in the first round. Their offense again sat around the middle of the pack once again as it was a case of history largely repeating itself with several high-priced veterans underachieving. GM David Poile has to be encouraged by the fact they won 18 of their last 25 games to get into the postseason but despite that, the biggest part of their offseason should revolve around shaking up the core, something that is already underway.
Granlund Decision
Mikael Granlund was one of the stranger UFA cases back in the fall. He was much better in 2019-20 after the coaching change to John Hynes and it looked like his strong finish was going to help him rebuild some value heading into the open market. It was at the point where both sides were expected to move on as he was expected to cost more than what the Preds could afford.
That didn’t happen. Instead, he was one of the players that couldn’t get the money he wanted at the start of free agency and tried to wait it out. However, even that didn’t work and he ultimately returned to Nashville in late December on a small pay cut ($3.75MM) with the hopes of a repeat second half that would give him a bigger market this time around.
That didn’t really happen either. He had 13 goals and 14 assists in 51 games this season which isn’t bad by any stretch but it’s hardly top-line production. He logged plenty of ice time (19:28 per game which led all Nashville forwards) and he spent extended time at center for the first time since 2015-16. Those are elements that will help his market.
In the end, Granlund’s market hasn’t changed much. The 29-year-old is a capable second-liner who is miscast in a bigger role with Nashville. Is he worth keeping around? Given his role, definitely. But at what price? Is Granlund willing to take a multi-year deal around this price tag? If so, they should be able to work something out. But if he’s aiming for closer to his previous contract as he was in October, that contract probably isn’t going to come from Nashville.
Re-Sign Goalies
The Predators have their minor league goaltending situation settled for next year with a trio of players under contract. However, the same can’t be said in the NHL as both Juuse Saros and Pekka Rinne are in need of new deals and are in very different situations.
Saros was long viewed as Nashville’s goalie of the future and after basically being in a platoon last season, he became their starter this year, getting nearly 63% of the starts. The 26-year-old responded with the best year of his career, posting a 2.28 GAA with a .927 SV%, well above the league average on both fronts. That has him well-positioned for a big raise from the $1.5MM he made on his bridge deal. He’s now arbitration-eligible and is a year away from reaching unrestricted free agency, giving him some extra leverage in talks. However, the Predators have Yaroslav Askarov in the system having made him their first-rounder last October. He is now the goalie of the future, not Saros. So while Saros’ performance is deserving of a long-term, big-money deal, does Poile have interest in that type of commitment? That’s certainly not a given. Knowing Askarov is in the system, another medium-term pact (three to five years) could be a preferable compromise, giving them some stability for now but allowing them to pivot to their top prospect when he’s ready.
As for Rinne, he was Nashville’s starter for more than a decade but his numbers have dipped considerably in the past two years to the point where they have been below the NHL average. At 38, he is on the last legs of his career and hasn’t even committed to playing next season although he has expressed a desire to remain with the Preds if he does come back. Given that there will be better options available that could also push Saros for playing time though, the fit may not be great aside from the element of having him be a career Predator. At this point, Rinne will be going year to year which opens up the ability to offer bonus-laden deals which would give them some extra cap flexibility but it will come at a sharp dip in pay from the $5MM AAV he had the past two seasons. Even half of that could be a stretch. If they do decide to move on, the UFA market is deep enough that they’ll be able to bring in a capable replacement.
Offensive Core Shakeup
Over the past several seasons, Poile has tried to add to his core group up front, particularly down the middle. Ryan Johansen was acquired as was Kyle Turris while signing Matt Duchene and Nick Bonino as free agents. That’s a pretty good group of players on paper but it hasn’t panned out. Johansen and Duchene have underachieved significantly, Bonino was traded (though Luke Kunin, who they acquired in the move, has some upside), and Turris was bought out. Simply put, it’s not working.
The problem for Nashville is that the rest of their attack has also scuffled recently. Viktor Arvidsson had seen his production drop sharply which helped lead to this week’s trade while Filip Forsberg’s has ticked down. Even Granlund underachieved offensively.
To Poile’s credit, he has recognized the problem in the past and tried to address it; it just hasn’t gone well when he has done so. But it’s time to try again. Younger forwards like Kunin and Eeli Tolvanen can be part of the solution but they’re not ready to step into top roles and the combination of veterans they have just aren’t getting the job done under multiple coaches now.
With the flat salary cap, there could be an increase in swapping high-priced underachieving forwards and the Predators are a team that may want to look at going that route. With nearly $23MM in cap room, there will also be an opportunity to try to add a secondary scoring piece or two which would be welcome additions but that alone won’t take them from being a below-average scoring team to an above-average one. There’s a lot of work that needs to be done up front and bringing in a new piece or two to the top-six may very well help them go in the right direction. A shakeup is needed and Arvidsson’s departure alone won’t be enough.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.
Mikhail Grigorenko Signs In The KHL
Mikhail Grigorenko’s second act in North America wound up being even shorter than his first. The 27-year-old has decided to take a pass at testing unrestricted free agency later this month and is instead heading back home as CSKA Moscow announced that they’ve signed Grigorenko to a three-year contract.
Grigorenko spent the three seasons before 2020-21 with CSKA before deciding to give the NHL another try after he struggled considerably with Buffalo and Colorado in his first opportunity. That brought him to Columbus, a team that had some vacancies down the middle to fill; there was definitely a fit on paper.
That fit didn’t translate to on-ice success, however. He tallied just four goals and eight assists in 32 games with the Blue Jackets this season while clearing waivers back in mid-March. In the end, he wound up being just a role player and accordingly, it seemed unlikely that he’d be able to come close to the $1.2MM he made this season. Had he stuck around, he’d have been looking at something closer to the minimum.
With that in mind, a trip back to CSKA where he has had some success certainly makes sense. But while he’ll only be 30 when this contract is up, it’s quite unlikely that Grigorenko will attempt a third tour of duty in the NHL. Assuming this is indeed the end of his playing days in North America, he leaves with 26 goals and 50 assists in 249 games over parts of six seasons. That’s not the type of return Buffalo was expecting when they made Grigorenko the 12th-overall pick in 2012.
Free Agent Focus: Dallas Stars
Free agency is now just under a month away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up. There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in late July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well. Dallas has a handful of veterans that will be reaching unrestricted free agency but their biggest contract this summer will be their top young defenseman.
Key Restricted Free Agents
D Miro Heiskanen – The highest-picked defenseman from the 2017 draft class (third overall) didn’t waste much time establishing himself as a focal part of Dallas’ back end and logged nearly 25 minutes per game this season. He wasn’t able to maintain his strong production from the bubble last summer but still managed 27 points in 55 games which is above average for a defenseman. A big payday is coming with the question being how long the contract will be. The Stars would undoubtedly love to give him a max-term eight-year contract, buying four extra years of team control in the process. However, with the cap flat now and Heiskanen not eligible for arbitration this time around, a bridge deal would give him a chance to improve his numbers and enter negotiations in hopefully a better financial environment plus arbitration rights.
F Jason Dickinson – His offensive numbers on a per game basis were comparable to his previous two seasons which saw him surpass the 20-point mark. But Dickinson is known more for defensive prowess and was tied for second in SH ATOI among Dallas forwards. He’s a capable third-liner who can play the wing and down the middle, making him a useful player to have. However, Dickinson is owed a $1.6MM qualifying offer with arbitration rights that could push the price tag into the $2MM range. If the Stars want to buy themselves some extra wiggle room this summer, that might be a bit too pricey. Accordingly, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Dallas try to get something done before the qualifying offer deadline.
F Joel Kiviranta – After spending most of 2019-20 in the minors, the 25-year-old didn’t see any AHL action this season and got into a career-best 26 NHL games where he had 11 points. Kiviranta is best known from his play in the bubble where he had five goals in 14 postseason contests last summer but that alone won’t give him too much leverage in talks even though he’s arbitration-eligible. He should be able to get a small raise from the $925K he made on his entry-level deal but not too much more than that.
Other RFAs: F Nicholas Caamano, D Joseph Cecconi, D Ben Gleason, D Julius Honka, F Adam Mascherin, G Colton Point, D Jerad Rosberg
Key Unrestricted Free Agents
D Jamie Oleksiak – It was a disappointing year for quite a few Dallas veterans but that wasn’t the case for Oleksiak. The 28-year-old stepped into a regular role in the top four for the first time in his career and responded with arguably his best NHL season, notching 14 points while logging over 20 minutes a game. He’s not the fastest of skaters – few his size are – but Oleksiak is a capable stay-at-home defender and may be starting to show some offensive potential as well, scoring six goals during the season after notching five last postseason. There was trade interest in him at the deadline and given his age and improvement, he should be able to land a bit more than the $2.5MM salary he received this year if he makes it to the open market.
F Andrew Cogliano – In his prime, Cogliano was a speedy two-way forward. However, in recent years, the production has tailed off for the 34-year-old who is basically just a checker now. There is still a market for those types of players but it will have to come at a much lower price tag than the $3.25MM he made over each of the past three seasons. Half of that may be tough to get, even.
D Sami Vatanen – This was a tough season for Vatanen, to put it lightly. After not getting much interest in free agency, he opted to go back to New Jersey in the hopes of building his value back up. It didn’t happen. Instead, he dropped to the third pairing, didn’t produce much (six points in 30 games isn’t great for a blueliner known for some timely offense), and wound up being waived after they couldn’t find a trade taker for him. That’s what got Vatanen to Dallas where he did even less. After taking less than half of his previous contract for this season (from $4.875MM to $2MM), another cut is coming for the 30-year-old.
Other UFAs: G Landon Bow, F Justin Dowling, D Taylor Fedun, D/F Mark Pysyk
Projected Cap Space
The Stars currently have a little over $15MM in cap space with 16 players signed. That’s not a bad spot to be in although more than half of that will go to Heiskanen if they can get any sort of medium or long-term deal in place. If that happens, they’ll basically be filling out the rest of the roster with cheap contracts and basically be at the Upper Limit. Barring trades, it could be a quiet summer for Dallas.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.
Snapshots: Beniers, Ceci, Forrest, Killorn
Back in the spring, presumptive number one pick Owen Power raised some eyebrows when he suggested he was leaning towards staying at Michigan over turning pro. He may not be the only prominent Wolverine to do so as Matthew Beniers told NHL.com’s Mike Morreale (Twitter links) that he is leaning towards doing the same as well. Beniers is viewed by many as the top center available in this draft class but unlike Power, he may not quite be NHL-ready just yet so more time in college seems like a wise idea.
Elsewhere around the NHL:
- The Penguins would like to retain pending UFA defenseman Cody Ceci this summer but they’ll have to cut some payroll to make that happen. GM Ron Hextall told Mike DeFabo of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette that they’d have to move out some money to have a shot at bringing the veteran back. The 27-year-old had a nice bounce-back year, notching 17 points in 53 games while logging 18:31 per night, a number that jumped to over 22 minutes a game in the playoffs. He wound up being a strong bargain for Pittsburgh at $1.25MM and has earned a raise but with over $78MM in commitments already per CapFriendly and a handful of roster spots that still need to be filled, some roster juggling will be needed to make that happen.
- Penguins AHL coach J.D. Forrest has been selected to coach the United States at the upcoming Hlinka-Gretzky Cup, relays Seth Rorabaugh of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. The tournament features many draft-eligible players each year although Canada is opting not to participate this season given travel concerns. Forrest has been with Wilkes-Barre/Scranton for the past five years with this season being his first as head coach.
- Lightning winger Alex Killorn made the trip to Montreal as the Stanley Cup Final continues, notes Mari Faiello of the Tampa Bay Times. He missed yesterday’s game after blocking a shot late in the second period but while Killorn flew out with the team, head coach Jon Cooper wouldn’t commit to providing an update on whether or not the veteran will be available for Friday’s third game of the series.
Expansion Primer: Edmonton Oilers
Over the next few weeks, we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, who will likely warrant protection, and which ones may be on the block to avoid the risk of losing them for nothing? Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4:00 PM CDT on July 17th. The full eligibility rules can be found here, while CapFriendly has an expansion tool to make your own lists.
Back in 2017, the Oilers lost a young defenseman to Vegas in expansion in Griffin Reinhart. The fact they lost him wasn’t a big deal – he only played one game for the Oilers in 2016-17 and never played a game for the Golden Knights; he played in Germany this season – but it provided a harsh reminder of what they gave up to get him in 2015 first and second-round picks. (The first-rounder became Mathew Barzal and the second-rounder turned into Mitchell Stephens.) This time around, they may very find themselves losing a young defenseman once again.
Eligible Players (Non-UFA)
Forwards:
Josh Archibald, Tyler Benson, Leon Draisaitl, Seth Griffith, Dominik Kahun, Zack Kassian, Jujhar Khaira, Cooper Marody, Connor McDavid, James Neal, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Jesse Puljujarvi, Devin Shore, Anton Slepyshev, Kyle Turris, Bogdan Yakimov, Kailer Yamamoto
Defense:
Ethan Bear, Caleb Jones, Oscar Klefbom, William Lagesson, Darnell Nurse, Kris Russell
Goalies:
Mikko Koskinen, Alex Stalock, Stuart Skinner, Dylan Wells
Notable Unrestricted Free Agents
D Tyson Barrie, F Alex Chiasson, F Tyler Ennis, D Slater Koekkoek, D Dmitry Kulikov, D Adam Larsson, G Mike Smith
Notable Exemptions
D Evan Bouchard, D Philip Broberg, F Ryan McLeod, D Dmitri Samorukov
Key Decisions
The first key decision was made earlier this week when they re-signed Nugent-Hopkins. Had they not done so, it was possible that they could have gone with the eight-skater route, allowing them to protect an extra defenseman. That won’t be the case now as he joins McDavid, Draisaitl, Yamamoto, and Puljujarvi as sure-fire protectees.
There are quite a few candidates for those last two spots. A year ago, it felt like Kassian was going to be in that guaranteed protected list. He had just signed a four-year deal and was coming off a career year offensively; it felt like he was finally becoming the type of power forward that he was expected to when he was a first-round pick in 2009. Then 2020-21 happened. He had two significant injuries that cost him half the season and when he was in the lineup, he wasn’t particularly productive as he managed just two goals in 27 games. His contract has gone from market value to an overpayment in a hurry and as a result, he could very well be left exposed even though when he’s on his game, he can be a difference-maker for the Oilers.
Archibald has become more of what they were hoping for from Kassian – a physical forward that can move up and down the lineup where needed and chip in with a timely goal here or there. His scoring total dipped to just seven this season after a dozen in each of the previous two years but he’s the type of versatile player they’ll likely opt to keep around.
In terms of their other veterans, Khaira is a capable checker but a $1.3MM qualifying offer makes him a possible non-tender candidate as in this market, that’s a bit much for a fourth liner. That uncertainty makes it difficult to think he’ll be protected. Turris, Neal, and Shore cleared waivers and spent frequent time as healthy scratches. It’s safe to say they’ll be exposed as well. Kahun had a tough year after two straight years of more than 30 points which has him in the possible non-tender category as well. If they agree on a new low-cost deal early, it could earn him a protected slot but it’s not a guarantee.
That leaves Benson, a player with seven career NHL games under his belt with none of them coming this season. (This year, he had 36 points in 36 games with AHL Bakersfield.) He’s now waiver-eligible and seemingly on the cusp of a roster spot. Even if he winds up being the odd man out in training camp, he still has more upside than several of the veterans that are vying for one of the last two protected slots.
On the back end, there are two safe bets to be protected. Nurse has become their number one defenseman while Bear’s tough season is overshadowed by a strong 2019-20 campaign. His potential is high enough that he’ll be kept away from the Kraken.
Larsson is a pending UFA but there is mutual interest in getting a new deal in place before he hits the market. If that was to happen in the next couple of weeks, he’d get the third spot.
Assuming that doesn’t happen (or they wait to announce until after the draft), it would appear that two young blueliners – Jones and Lagesson – will be in the mix for the final slot. Jones’ best showing came in his rookie year in 2018-19 and he hasn’t been able to lock down a full-time spot since then. Of the two, he has a bit more offensive upside than Lagesson, who is more of a stay-at-home defender. Lagesson’s a year older (25 vs 24 for Jones) and doesn’t have as much NHL experience (27 games vs 93 for Jones). Jones would appear to have the slight edge out of the two.
If Klefbom was healthy, he’d be a guaranteed protectee. However, he missed all of this season after shoulder surgery and it doesn’t sound like he’ll be ready to start next year either. Could Seattle pick him in the hopes of him returning to health and becoming a possible trade asset down the road? Perhaps but that’s an expensive gamble with $9.669MM still owed in salary in the final two years of his deal. Russell was extended during the season to meet one of the exposure criteria and nothing has changed on that front.
Unlike most teams, Edmonton’s protected spot between the pipes is uncertain. It’s safe to say it won’t be Koskinen who may very well be bought out this month. Stalock was claimed off waivers during the season and is signed for cheap but he didn’t play at all. Are they prepared to make him the full-time backup next year? If so, he could get this slot but if not, keeping a youngster makes more sense.
That should be Skinner. He struggled in his lone NHL appearance this season but was much better with Bakersfield, posting a 2.38 GAA with a .912 SV% in 31 games. He’s still waiver-exempt and if made available, could be intriguing to Seattle in terms of having another goalie in the system. Wells struggled in both the AHL and ECHL this season so it’s safe to say he won’t be protected.
Having said that, if they come to terms on a new deal with Smith between now and the draft, he’ll get the protected spot.
Projected Protection List
F Josh Archibald
F Tyler Benson
F Connor McDavid
F Leon Draisaitl
F Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
F Jesse Puljujarvi
F Kailer Yamamoto
D Ethan Bear
D Caleb Jones
D Darnell Nurse
Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist
When Vegas had their expansion draft, a minimum of two forwards and one defenseman had to be exposed that were under contract and played either 40 games in the most recent season or 70 over the past two combined. Due to the pandemic, those thresholds have been changed to 27 games played in 2020-21 or 54 in 2019/20 and 2020-21 combined. In creating our expansion list for each team in this series, we will ensure that these criteria are met.
Forwards (4): Zack Kassian, James Neal, Devin Shore, Kyle Turris
Defensemen (2): Oscar Klefbom, Kris Russell
The Oilers are well-positioned as things stand. If Seattle likes one of Khaira or Kahun, it’s possible one of the pending RFAs gets selected. Otherwise, Lagesson could be the target as a young defender with potentially a little bit of trade value or someone that can hold down the seventh or eighth spot on the back end. Edmonton appears to be set to be one of the teams that won’t be impacted all that much when they lose a player to the Kraken.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.
Devils Given Green Light To “Spill The Coffers”
New Jersey has been a team that has been well below the Upper Limit of the salary cap but that may be changing this offseason. Scott O’Neil, the outgoing CEO of the owning partnership of the team, made an appearance on the Speak of the Devils podcast (audio link) earlier this week and indicated that GM Tom Fitzgerald had been given the green light to spend and add to his roster:
Let’s spill the coffers. We’ve got plenty of cap space, let’s use it. We’ve got plenty of picks, let’s go get ’em. We’ve got the expansion draft, that’s going to create opportunity. ‘Fitzy’ seems like he’s locked in, zeroed in. He’s got the green light to go. Let’s put some players on the ice.
It’s time. It’s time to start building up. We have this young core in place. Now let’s go build a hockey team and win some games.
It has been a tough stretch as of late for the Devils who missed the playoffs for the third time in a row and the eighth time in the last nine years. Along the way, they’ve added a pair of number one picks in centers Nico Hischier and Jack Hughes but the supporting cast still needs some improvement. Over the past three years, they’ve finished no higher than 25th in goals scored and no better than 26th in goals allowed. Upgrades are needed pretty much everywhere as a result although Mackenzie Blackwood has some promise in goal.
New Jersey has an extra first-round pick at 29th overall from the Kyle Palmieri and Travis Zajac trade but they only have one pick in each of the remaining six rounds. That could limit their trade chips from there although the late first-round selection is certain to intrigue teams on draft night, especially in a draft like this which has much more uncertainty than usual. If someone starts to slide, that pick will generate some interest.
But what they do have plenty of is cap space as they sit more than $37MM under the cap, per CapFriendly. More importantly, there aren’t many prominent unrestricted free agents (other than defenseman Ryan Murray) while there are no pending big-ticket contracts for a restricted free agent either. Once they take care of those, there will still be plenty of money to go around.
In an offseason where teams will be looking to move money and free agency likely to resemble the fall where big offers aren’t as prominent as usual, this should set Fitzgerald and the Devils up for a productive summer, especially now that they have the green light to spend more.
Finding A Match For A Duncan Keith Trade
Yesterday, a report from Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman indicated that the Blackhawks are working with defenseman Duncan Keith on a trade that would send him to either the Pacific Northwest or Western Canada. The move is speculated to be for family reasons which would explain the specific geographical region where he’d waive his no-move clause to go to. With that in mind, let’s look at the potential fit for each of those teams to take on the final two years of his deal ($5.538MM both years but just $3.6MM in total salary combined).
Vancouver – With Alex Edler set to become an unrestricted free agent at the end of the month, there is a potential spot for Keith to step into if Edler doesn’t re-sign while it would shift Nate Schmidt back to his off-side. Although the Canucks don’t have the cap space to absorb Keith’s contract outright, they have some expiring contracts (Loui Eriksson, Jay Beagle, and Antoine Roussel) that could be used as offsets to make the money work this year. He’d also be a mentor for top youngster Quinn Hughes.
However, bringing in Keith would also put another roadblock in place for two of their young left-shot blueliners in Olli Juolevi and Jack Rathbone. Juolevi was able to carve out a limited role last season but more is expected from the fifth overall pick in 2016. As for Rathbone, he didn’t look out of place in a late-season stint and could be in the mix for a full-time spot in training camp. Developing some cost-controlled assets will help offset the big money owed to Hughes and Elias Pettersson this summer and Brock Boeser next summer.
It’s potentially for those reasons that they don’t appear to be interested in acquiring Keith at the moment. There are ways to make the money work for 2021-22 but 2022-23 could be a lot trickier and if they want to let Juolevi and Rathbone see some more NHL action, adding Keith would make that more difficult.
Edmonton – The early indications are that Oscar Klefbom ($4.167MM) may not be ready to return at the start of next season so he could be heading for LTIR once again. Last fall, they used that money on Tyson Barrie but they could have to go in a different direction if Barrie prices himself out of what the Oilers can afford. Theoretically, Keith could fill that same role next year although if Klefbom can return later in the year, that would complicate things.
Behind Darnell Nurse, there are few proven options on the left side of Edmonton’s back end. Caleb Jones and William Lagesson have both had their ups and downs to this point in their young careers while Kris Russell is a third-pairing role player at best. Dmitry Kulikov and Slater Koekkoek will both become unrestricted free agents later this month as well. They have high hopes for Philip Broberg, the eighth pick back in 2019, but he probably isn’t ready to step into a top-four role either. Keith could presumably serve as the bridge player for Broberg.
Edmonton also has some pricey contracts that could be moved to offset money. Winger James Neal has two years left at $5.75MM, nearly the same as Keith while goaltender Mikko Koskinen has one year at $4.5MM remaining. Both are buyout candidates as a result and could be included to balance the cap. With the state of their back end, a veteran that can play on the left side of the second pairing could be a useful pickup and Keith could conceivably fill that role.
Calgary – At first glance, there doesn’t appear to be a great fit. The Flames have their top four defenders signed for next year at a cost of $20.75MM. While Keith on the third pairing would certainly improve their depth, paying more than $5MM for the privilege is something they can’t realistically afford.
However, expansion is looming and Calgary appears to be a team that will need to protect seven forwards which means one of their top four blueliners – likely Mark Giordano – will be left exposed to Seattle. It wouldn’t be surprising at all to see the Kraken take on the final year of Giordano’s contract which would create an opening in the top four and $6.75MM in cap space. That could be an opening for Keith but otherwise, the Flames shouldn’t be the landing spot.
Seattle – For the Kraken to pick him in expansion, Keith would first have to waive his no-move clause. Considering his apparent desire to be in the Pacific Northwest, that shouldn’t be an issue. What will be trickier is finding the fit for a trade. Does Seattle want to take on that contract outright or are they going to want some sort of sweetener or salary offset? The latter can’t really happen until after the expansion draft when they’ll have players to trade which would take picking him off the table.
Those small logistics aside, Keith would certainly be an intriguing fit for an expansion team. There’s a chance he’d wind up in a bigger role than he should have (he turns 38 later this month) but he’s also someone that would potentially be their inaugural captain and help shepherd their roster through what will certainly be an interesting first couple of years. If they take a defenseman with their second-overall pick this month and put him on the NHL roster, Keith would work as a good mentor as well. Generally, players that old don’t make sense for a new team but there’s a fit here.
With such a narrow window of teams to work with (Winnipeg is too far East to qualify as part of Western Canada), Chicago and Keith’s camp will have their work cut out for them. Of the four, Edmonton may be the best fit before expansion while Calgary could become an option after that depending on what happens. And with their clean cap situation, Seattle could be in the mix at any time as well. There are options but likely not enough for the Blackhawks to bring in any sort of sizable return for the 16-year veteran.
July Critical Dates Calendar
Normally, July 1st is the first day of the new league calendar year and most of the offseason events have already occurred. However, with the delayed start to the season, most of the key summer dates haven’t occurred yet with one key exception. CapFriendly provided a detailed list (Twitter link) of the new key target dates for this month. Some deadlines were known while others were speculative up to this point.
Before jumping to the list, the one key event on the calendar that remained July 1st is the payment of signing bonuses. Anyone scheduled to receive a signing bonus on the 1st will still get one today. That means it’s a great day for players like Connor McDavid and Artemi Panarin who each received a $12MM signing bonus which represents the majority of their earnings for the 2021-22 calendar season which doesn’t even start for another four-plus weeks. As for the rest of the dates to watch for, they are as follows:
July 13
Deadline for teams to ask players to waive their no-move clauses for the purpose of the Seattle expansion draft.
Latest possible start date for the buyout period (this could be moved up if the Stanley Cup Final ends as the window begins 24 hours after the playoffs end).
July 16
Deadline for players to accept requests to waive their no-move clauses for the purpose of the Seattle expansion draft.
Deadline for players to be placed on waivers prior to the transaction freeze.
July 17
Transaction freeze comes into effect – no trade or waiver activity permitted. Players eligible for selection to Seattle also have a signing freeze.
Deadline for teams to submit their protection lists for the expansion draft.
July 18
NHL approval and distribution of protection lists to all teams.
Beginning of Seattle’s exclusive RFA/UFA negotiation period for all unprotected players.
July 21
Expansion Draft
July 22
End of expansion-related transaction freeze.
July 23/24
NHL Entry Draft (first round on the 23rd, remaining six rounds on the 24th)
July 26
Deadline for teams to submit qualifying offers to restricted free agents.
July 27
Expiration of contracts originally slated to end June 30th.
Buyout period ends.
RFA interview window opens for players that have received a qualifying offer.
July 28
Free agency begins.
Beginning of window for players to accept their qualifying offer.
While the beginning of the month won’t be the usual frenzy that we’re accustomed to, it won’t be long before activity starts to pick up across the league with a very busy stretch coming up in a couple of weeks.