PHR Mailbag: Draft, Flyers, Tarasenko, Goodrow, Kings, KHL, AHL, Sabres
Topics in this edition of the mailbag include last month’s draft, a discussion on if the Kings have loaded up too early, the KHL salary cap, and more. If your question doesn’t appear here, check back next weekend when we’ll run two more mailbags based on the questions from our most recent callout.
Gbear: Which teams’ draft selections did you really like and which did you really not like?
I liked Chicago’s draft and not just because they got a franchise player in Connor Bedard. Oliver Moore slipping to them at 19 was nice for them and as a result, it’s quite possible that their top two centers of the future will come from this class. Adam Gajan is one of the higher-projected goalies from this draft class and while I’m not certain there’s a true starter out of the bunch, he could be an option for them in a few years. They have a shot at three impact players out of this draft class which would be a great outcome.
Buffalo also did well. Zach Benson slipping outside of the top ten was certainly fortuitous for them and Anton Wahlberg was rated by some as a first-round talent that they got in the second round. I think Maxim Strbak could play on an NHL back end in the future while Scott Ratzlaff is someone I mentioned in a previous mailbag as an under-the-radar goalie prospect that could see his stock rise next season.
It’s harder to pick classes that I didn’t like as much as there are several teams that didn’t have great drafts simply because they didn’t have many picks. It’s hard to hold that performance against them.
But one team that puzzled me was Arizona. It’s not that Dmitri Simashev and Daniil But weren’t first-round caliber players. They certainly were. But it’s fair to say that those were pretty sizable reaches at six and twelve. As we now have heard in several reports, there were teams looking to trade up and I feel the Coyotes might have lost out on an opportunity to gain some extra assets. Yes, they have plenty of picks already but just because they did doesn’t mean they shouldn’t have looked at the trade-down scenarios where they still likely would have got their desired players.
Emoney123: After signing Cates and York this week, will the Flyers score enough to compete this season?
What is the status of the Flyers goalie chart? They seem to like drafting Russian goalies with Fedotov, Kolosov, and Zavragin… will any make it to the NHL with the Flyers? Will Sandstrom and Ersson start the season at Lehigh Valley while Maier at Reading and Bjarnson staying in the WHL? Hart as the presumed starter with Petersen as backup or does Briere dive headfirst and trade Hart to continue the rebuild? What would a probable return for Hart look like?
I don’t get the sense that the Flyers are looking to compete next season…at least in the traditional sense. The moves they’ve made are that of a team that has an eye on bottoming out and trying to become a contender in the Macklin Celebrini sweepstakes. So, are they going to score enough to compete at the top end of the standings? No, but they’ll score enough to compete at the bottom of them. Next season should be about giving their young forwards extended looks in key roles to see how many of them can realistically be a part of their long-term core. With that approach will come some scoring droughts.
Of the three Russian goalies, Ivan Fedotov has the best shot at making it to the NHL. He can play at this level now. Of course, there’s the latest issue to navigate with the KHL registering a contract for Fedotov even though his NHL agreement is tolled. I don’t think we’ve heard the last of things on that front. If he winds up in the NHL after all is said and done, he’s the backup for Carter Hart and Calvin Petersen is once again an expensive third-string option. Of the others you listed, I think you have the desired Lehigh Valley tandem if Felix Sandstrom clears waivers, Carson Bjarnason will stay in junior, and Nolan Meier isn’t currently under contract for next season.
I could be completely wrong on this but I think the idea of trading Hart has come and gone. Connor Hellebuyck is in play. So is John Gibson. I don’t think it’s entirely impossible that Boston has to trade one of their goalies if an opportunity to add another piece arises. This is not a marketplace to go into and command top value for Hart’s services. If they can’t get top value, they shouldn’t be moving him at this time.
Schwa: With rumors that Tarasenko wants to stay with the Rangers, so you see them moving Goodrow and Vlad taking a discount? What does it take to move Goodie’s contract out?
Considering that Vladimir Tarasenko fired his agent earlier this month, I’m not certain that he’s willing to sign for a significant discount. If that was the case, he’d have advised his old agent to get a deal done with the Rangers. Instead, his new agency is starting the process all over again. Is it possible that he’s open to a discount? Perhaps. But his recent actions suggest that it’s not his Plan A. I’m intrigued to see where he lands as I think he’s one of the dominoes that needs to come off the board before we start to see a bit of activity on the trade front.
As for what it’d take to move Goodrow’s contract out? My initial thought is more than what New York would be willing to part with. In this market with so few teams willing or able to take on money (and even less willing to take on term), I think it would start with a first-round pick with a decent prospect on top of it. Is that a price worth paying to keep Tarasenko? I suppose it could be but it’d depend on how long he’d be willing to sign for. As a rental on a discount contract, probably not. For multiple years on a below-market deal though? I suppose it could be a consideration.
Goodrow is a capable bottom-six player and he certainly fills some needs on the Rangers. But an AAV of over $3.6MM is on the high side when most role players are signing for half of that or less. Four more years of that contract is also a longer term than most free agents have been getting. That’s a double whammy that will make him tough to move as effective as he is.
rpoabr: Did the Kings push their chips in too soon to try to take advantage of Kopitar and Doughty still being productive? Traded away a lot of draft capital and upside players over the last year.
I remember having that same thought last year around the time they traded for Kevin Fiala. It’s not that it was a bad trade but it seemed like they were fast-tracking just a little bit. Safe to say that one has worked out so far. At least at the deadline last season, they addressed the goaltending temporarily and with getting Vladislav Gavrikov to extend on a short-term contract, they’ll get some value out of the first-rounder they gave up there.
I don’t mind the package they gave up for Pierre-Luc Dubois, however, one that was more quantity than true quality. Alex Iafallo and Gabriel Vilardi are good supporting-cast players but if they’re the anchor pieces for a long-term center, take it and run. Rasmus Kupari’s stock has been sliding so moving him out isn’t the end of the world either. Impact centers are hard to trade for and this wasn’t an overpayment so I think it was a good move for them to make.
Fundamentally speaking, I understand why they’re pushing in their chips now. Drew Doughty is still at the top of his game and Anze Kopitar is still a high-end center. Some of their younger players are on club-friendly contracts so their window is now. At this point, my biggest concern for them is that they basically ignored the goaltending position. A Cam Talbot–Pheonix Copley tandem isn’t good enough in my view to contend in the playoffs. I expect they’ll be trying to address that in-season if they want to best position themselves for a long postseason run.
Gmm8811: Wondering if you can share any info on how the salaries work in the KHL? Cap? Minimum salary? Top pay? Any info on AHL salaries also? Does a player on a non-NHL contract have a minimum?
For the KHL, I can give you numbers from recent seasons at least. Their cap in 2022-23 was 900 million rubles (around $12.8MM US) with a floor of 315 million rubles (roughly $4.8MM US). Last June, Championat in Russia revealed the top-13 salaries in the league from the year before. Blackhawks ‘prospect’ Max Shalunov was the highest in 2021-22 at 90 million rubles (around $1MM US). A 2011 draft pick, Shalunov is still property of Chicago should he decide to try his hand in the NHL. I assume there’s a minimum salary in that league although I wasn’t able to find what it was.
As for the AHL, I can fill in some blanks. There is a CBA for that league (which expires in August 2024) and the minimum salary for the upcoming season is $52,725 US for players on one-way AHL contracts. For players on two-way deals with the ECHL as well, the minimum is $41,625 for US-based teams or $54,100 for Canadian-based clubs paying in that currency. There is no salary cap or maximum salary for that league. Players on AHL-only contracts seldom have the financial terms released but we’ve seen some recent NHL two-way contracts around the $500K mark in AHL salary (or at least a guaranteed portion).
Tampa Bay Lightning Sign Tanner Jeannot
Back at the trade deadline, Tampa Bay paid a high price to land Tanner Jeannot from Nashville, sending five draft picks (one in each of the first five rounds over the next few years) along with defenseman Cal Foote to get him. The team confirmed that it will be a two-year, $5.33MM contract for Jeannot, paying him an AAV of $2.665MM per season. After they put Brent Seabrook on LTIR at the beginning of the season, Tampa Bay will have just under $300K in salary cap space.
Financial terms are not yet known but it’s worth noting that Jeannot’s qualifying offer was for just under $900K. He had filed for salary arbitration with a hearing scheduled for July 24th and it wouldn’t be surprising to see this deal check in for more than double that qualifier. A two-year term would give Tampa Bay one extra year of team control.
The 26-year-old had a breakout campaign in 2021-22 with the Predators. He put up 24 goals and 17 assists that year in 81 games while adding 130 penalty minutes and 318 hits. That was enough to land him in seventh place in Calder Trophy voting for Rookie of the Year and it appeared as if the Preds had a core power forward on their hands.
That wasn’t the case in 2022-23, however. Instead, Jeannot saw his production drop sharply with Nashville, down to five goals and nine helpers in 56 games along with 85 penalty minutes and 213 hits. Despite that, Tampa Bay felt that he could be a difference-maker for him down the stretch and in the playoffs with the hopes that they could then make him part of their future core.
That didn’t exactly happen. Playing through some injury woes, Jeannot was limited to just a goal and three assists in 20 games following the swap while he missed three of their six playoff games in their first-round loss to Toronto. And with this contract more or less amounting to a second bridge deal, he isn’t exactly going to be viewed as a long-term core piece now.
Despite that, there is still some room for optimism for Jeannot with the Lightning. He should slot in on their second or third line next season and with a full training camp under his belt in the fall along with a return to health, he should be in line for a stronger showing next season. In an Atlantic Division that has added some toughness this summer (Ryan Reaves, Milan Lucic, and Zack MacEwen have all entered the division), Tampa Bay will be relying on Jeannot to help them on that side of the table as well. His initial impression might not have been the most favorable but things should only be looking up from here for him.
Elliotte Friedman was the first to report the two sides agreed on a two-year deal.
PuckPedia was the first to report the financial details of the contract.
East Notes: Rangers, Sabres, Svechnikov
The cap situation for the Rangers has limited them for the most part this summer. Accordingly, Larry Brooks of the New York Post opines that the best chance they have to take a step forward next season might be to take a step back out of the gate and give their young trio of Alexis Lafreniere (still an unsigned restricted free agent), Kaapo Kakko, and Filip Chytil extended looks in offensive roles. With a forward group that skews older otherwise, New York’s best chance for offensive growth might very well be those three younger options taking a step forward in their development. The Rangers are certainly in win-now mode which might make it seem counter-intuitive to potentially have some early struggles while evaluating those players in those roles but if they can hit another gear offensively, they could certainly be dangerous offensively when the playoffs come around.
Elsewhere in the East:
- The Sabres have reached a new ECHL affiliation agreement for next season as Lance Lysowski of The Buffalo News reports that Buffalo will be partnered up with Jacksonville, formerly an affiliate of the Rangers. Buffalo had been with Cincinnati since 2017 but needed a new one when the Rangers signed with that franchise; this move basically makes it a trade of affiliates. A press conference is scheduled for Monday to make it official.
- Hurricanes winger Andrei Svechnikov returned to the ice on Friday as he works his way back from ACL surgery, notes team reporter Walt Ruff. The 23-year-old made his first All-Star appearance last season while picking up 23 goals and 32 assists in 64 games before suffering the injury in March. At the time, the procedure carried a recovery of six to nine months; October (when the season starts) is near the short end of that timeline so it’s not a guarantee that Svechnikov will be ready on opening night.
Capitals Confirm Evgeny Kuznetsov’s Earlier Trade Request
In recent months, there has been speculation that Capitals center Evgeny Kuznetsov had asked for a change of scenery. Yesterday, in an article on their team site from Mike Vogel, they confirmed that the middleman did indeed request to be traded.
The 31-year-old had one of his best offensive seasons in 2021-22, picking up 24 goals and 54 assists in 79 games. However, Kuznetsov wasn’t able to build on that last season as his goal total was cut in half while he still managed 43 helpers. A report out of Russia last month suggested that the relationship with the team wasn’t past the point of no return but that he was seeking more offensive freedom; it’s possible that new head coach Spencer Carbery could give him that freedom.
In his piece, Vogel notes that Washington typically tries to accommodate trade requests and that GM Brian MacLellan was looking to make a move that would make his top-six group a little younger in the process. Clearly, that didn’t come to fruition with Kuznetsov still being a member of the Capitals.
The struggles last season certainly didn’t help his trade value and neither does his contract. Kuznetsov still has two years left on his contract, one that carries an AAV of $7.8MM. As we’ve seen in recent weeks, moving expensive contracts has been difficult enough on its own let alone extracting full value. Look no further than Nashville’s trade of Ryan Johansen to Colorado, one that saw them hold back $4MM per season for two years for what amounted to no return. For a Washington team that still intends to compete next season, that type of move isn’t exactly palatable considering Kuznetsov is still their most reliable middleman (with Dylan Strome and Nicklas Backstrom also in the mix).
MacLellan acknowledged that he took an “aggressive” approach when it came to trying to find a trade fit for Kuznetsov but he hasn’t had success in terms of finding a swap that both sides are happy with. He added that some players they were pursuing haven’t been moved yet so speculatively, Kuznetsov could be a part of one of those swaps. Otherwise, he’ll at least need to start next season with Washington where a strong start in Carbery’s new system could help boost his value to the point where his value goes up and a trade can be reached if he still wants to be moved at that time.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Golden Knights Sign David Edstrom
The Golden Knights have signed their top pick from last month’s draft, announcing the signing of center David Edstrom to a three-year, entry-level deal. Financial terms of the contract were not disclosed.
The 18-year-old was the final selection of the first round, going 32nd overall to the Stanley Cup champs. Edstrom spent last season in Frolunda’s system, splitting time between their Under-18 team, Under-20 squad, and their SHL group. The bulk of his action came at the Under-20 level where he was productive, notching 15 goals and 13 assists in 28 games. Edstrom also didn’t look out of place in the pros, collecting two goals and two helpers in 11 contests while averaging just shy of eight minutes a night. Internationally, he represented Sweden at the 2022 Hlinka-Gretzky Cup as well as the World Under-18s.
Edstrom is under contract in Sweden next season with Frolunda and it’s probable that he’ll be loaned back there where he’ll split time once again between the Under-20 team and the SHL squad. If that happens, his contract will slide a year and still have three years left on it this time next summer. He’s still likely a few years away from being NHL ready but Vegas feels that Edstrom should become a middle-six contributor for them down the road.
Raphael Lavoie Accepts Qualifying Offer
Today is the deadline for players to accept their qualifying offers. One player that has elected to take his is Oilers prospect Raphael Lavoie as CapFriendly reports (Twitter link) that the winger has accepted his offer which carries a salary of $874,125 in the NHL and $70K in the minors.
The 22-year-old was a second-round pick by Edmonton back in 2019 (38th overall) and spent his entire entry-level deal at the AHL level with Bakersfield. He got off to a slow start but finished strong with 21 points in his final 24 games, giving him 25 goals and 20 assists on the year in 61 games.
A big winger standing 6’4, Lavoie figures to be a candidate to earn a spot on Edmonton’s roster next season. However, this contract might actually hurt those chances. With cap space at an absolute premium, the Oilers will likely want their depth pieces making the minimum of $775K; had Lavoie accepted that as an NHL salary in exchange for a higher AHL one, he could have guaranteed himself more money and given himself a better chance to make their roster.
However, Lavoie appears to be betting on himself here, believing that he can outright earn a spot in Edmonton’s lineup which would bank him nearly an extra $100K in the process. He’ll once again be a restricted free agent next summer where the NHL portion of his qualifying offer will be just under $918K.
Penguins Re-Sign Ty Smith
The Penguins have taken care of one of their restricted free agents, announcing the re-signing of defenseman Ty Smith to a one-year contract. It’s a one-way agreement worth the NHL minimum of $775K meaning that the blueliner took less than his qualifying offer to get a guaranteed salary.
Smith’s stock certainly dipped last season. After being a regular with New Jersey in 2021-22, he was moved to Pittsburgh last summer in the John Marino trade. However, he was still waiver-exempt last season, resulting in him spending most of the year in the minors with AHL Wilkes-Barre/Scranton.
The 23-year-old played in 39 contests in the minors in 2022-23, picking up seven goals and 17 assists. It was his first taste of AHL action as he had exclusively been on New Jersey’s roster in his first two professional seasons. Smith did get into nine games with Pittsburgh where he was relatively productive with a goal and three assists while logging over 20 minutes a night.
Now waiver-eligible, Smith should be a full-timer on Pittsburgh’s roster for the upcoming season as it’s quite unlikely that he would get through waivers. However, with six regulars returning plus the addition of Ryan Graves, locking down a full-time spot in the lineup could be a challenge for Smith early on.
The Penguins have three remaining restricted free agents although two of those (Filip Lindberg and Filip Hallander) have already signed overseas. The other one is forward Drew O’Connor whose salary arbitration hearing is scheduled for August 4th.
Submit Your Questions For The #PHRMailbag
There was an expectation of a busy trade market this summer with many teams up against the salary cap and while that hasn’t quite come to fruition, there certainly have been some notable swaps made. Meanwhile, a lower-end free agent market has yielded some different strategies with some players opting for short-term deals in the hopes of landing a better contract down the road.
Our last mailbag came before the draft and was broken into three segments. Among the topics in the first was a look at Linus Ullmark’s possible trade value, the next RFAs to try to force a trade to a desired destination before reaching UFA eligibility, and the goaltending depth in the draft. Included in the second column were Nashville’s roster restructuring, the LTIR ‘loophole’, and if Clayton Keller could be a trade candidate in Arizona. Topics in the third one included Sergei Bobrovsky’s volatility, early playoff predictions, and expansion.
You can submit a question by using #PHRMailbag on Twitter or by leaving a comment down below. The mailbag will run on the weekend.
Snapshots: Kane, Tatar, Khusnutdinov
With winger Patrick Kane recovering from hip resurfacing surgery, he isn’t expected to be signing a contract in the foreseeable future. When the time does come for him to sign, ESPN’s Greg Wyshynski relays that the veteran is expected to ink a one-year deal. Kane is coming off a bit of a down season by his standards although he still put up 21 goals and 57 points in 2022-23 and was one of the highest-scoring UFAs. Accordingly, it’s quite possible that he could have landed a multi-year commitment. Instead, he appears to be looking for a one-year pact, one that could allow him to join a contender but he’ll likely be leaving money on the table to do so as he won’t be eligible for performance bonuses on this deal since it will be his age-34 season.
Elsewhere around the hockey world:
- Todd Reynolds, the agent for UFA winger Tomas Tatar, told Wyshynski in that same column that there has been strong interest in his client so far, even with teams currently being squeezed by the salary cap. The 32-year-old had to wait a little while to sign in his last trip through free agency in 2021, eventually inking a two-year deal with New Jersey. He was relatively productive in that stretch, picking up 35 goals and 43 assists in 158 games, showing he can still hold down a top-four role. Even so, it seems likely that Tatar will have to take a cut on his previous $4.5MM AAV, even if a team is able to clear out a player or two to make room for him on their roster.
- Wild prospect Marat Khusnutdinov is heading into the final year of his contract in the KHL and he may not be seeing any AHL time once it’s done. Player development director Brad Bombardir told Joe Smith of The Athletic (subscription link) that organizationally, they feel the 20-year-old is ready to step into Minnesota’s lineup at any point from this point. Khusnutdinov was a second-round pick back in 2020 (37th overall) and has over 100 KHL appearances and 55 points under his belt, showing that he’s capable of producing in the pros. He could be a candidate to sign late in the season with Minnesota depending on how far they and SKA St. Petersburg go in their respective playoffs should they get there.
Senators Notes: Tarasenko, RFAs, Mann
Speaking with TSN 1200 today (audio link), Senators GM Pierre Dorion confirmed that he has been in contact with the new agent for free agent winger Vladimir Tarasenko. The 31-year-old had been a speculative target for Ottawa depending on what they received in the Alex DeBrincat deal. While Ottawa did pick up winger Dominik Kubalik in that swap, adding Tarasenko would certainly go a longer way toward replacing DeBrincat’s production. However, with around just $5MM in cap room per CapFriendly, it might be difficult to fit Tarasenko onto their roster without clearing out another player first, something Dorion alluded to. He also mentioned that if they look to add a forward, they’ll want one with some term on his contract which suggests that they wouldn’t necessarily be looking to add Tarasenko on a one-year pact.
More from Ottawa:
- Also from Dorion’s interview, he indicated that talks are ongoing with their two remaining unsigned forwards, Shane Pinto and Egor Sokolov. Pinto is coming off a 20-goal season but injuries have limited him to just 99 career NHL appearances so accordingly, a short-term bridge contract seems like the most probable outcome with an AAV that checks in around the $2MM mark. Meanwhile, Sokolov spent most of last season with AHL Belleville, leading them in scoring with 59 points in 70 games while also picking up his first NHL goal and assist in five contests with the big club.
- The Senators have parted ways with assistant GM Trent Mann, reports Postmedia’s Bruce Garrioch. He had been with the organization since 2010 when he joined Ottawa as a part-time scout. He eventually worked his way up the ladder, taking over as their top amateur scout in 2016 but it appears that running their most recent draft class will be his final task in that role. Mann’s brother Troy was also let go by the Sens earlier this season as he was relieved of his duties as head coach with Belleville in mid-February.