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Arbitration

Kevin Fiala, Minnesota Wild Exchange Arbitration Figures

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The next arbitration hearing is scheduled for Tuesday between the Minnesota Wild and restricted free agent Kevin Fiala. The two sides have now submitted figures, though they can continue to negotiate a contract up until the moment the hearing starts. According to Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet, Fiala has filed for $6.25MM while the Wild have submitted for $4MM. Michael Russo of The Athletic notes that Fiala actually filed for a one-year term, meaning he will still be a restricted free agent next season.

It is important to remember that the two filings are meant to be the absolute limits of a negotiation, and arbitration almost always results in a contract somewhere in the middle. The midpoint of these two filings would be a $5.125MM cap hit for Fiala next season.

Given that it was the Wild who elected salary arbitration in this case, the term of the award was actually up to Fiala. He could have chosen a two-year deal to get him to unrestricted free agency, but by filing for just one he has essentially bet on himself. If say, the two sides can’t agree on a multi-year deal before Tuesday and a $5MM contract is awarded, Fiala will be owed that much as a qualifying offer again next offseason. He would then be able to file for arbitration again and earn a raise, still getting to the UFA market at the age of 26. The only real risk in this method is if the Wild decide not to qualify him for whatever reason, but unless there is a major injury or huge decline in play, that would be unlikely.

In fact, Fiala is likely worthy of a much more expensive contract after his recent performances. In 2019-20 he truly broke out, scoring 23 goals and 54 points in just 64 games for the Wild. At that point, he was still averaging just over 15 minutes a game. This year he was given more ice time and more responsibility and rewarded the Minnesota coaching staff with 20 goals and 40 points in 50 games. He posted outstanding possession statistics, even if they were helped by strong offensive deployment, and represented an outstanding one-two punch with rookie Kirill Kaprizov.

The question of course, as it will be for every contract the Wild sign over the next few years, is how they can fit in Fiala with such a huge cap penalty coming. Minnesota will face a $14.74MM cap charge in both 2023-24 and 2024-25 thanks to the buyouts of Zach Parise and Ryan Suter, making it very difficult to fit in the rest of the roster. Given the team still has Kaprizov to sign, it’s hard to know exactly how much room they’ll have. Perhaps that’s why a one-year arbitration award for Fiala isn’t the worst outcome, with the two sides restarting negotiations a year from now.

Detroit Red Wings, Adam Erne Avoid Arbitration

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The Detroit Red Wings have agreed to terms on a two-year deal with Adam Erne, avoiding arbitration. The two sides had a hearing scheduled for August 21, but, according to Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet, will enter into a two-year contract that carries an average annual value of $2.1MM.

Erne, 26, is coming off the best offensive season of his career, scoring 11 goals and 20 points in just 45 games. The physical forward played a bigger role on the Red Wings, even getting some powerplay time, and rewarded the club with a pretty strong year all things considered. While he is likely never going to be a full-time top-six option on a contending team, Red Wings GM Steve Yzerman obviously sees him as a valuable piece to the puzzle at the moment.

The key here is that the deal buys out just one year of unrestricted free agency, continuing the Detroit model of not committing long-term deals to anyone in the current group. No one on the team is signed past the 2023-24 season, with only Jakub Vrana and Michael Rasmussen even inked that long. The Red Wings are maintaining cap flexibility as they build up the prospect base, and this latest deal for Erne is just another one that could potentially be traded down the line.

If the team fails to take a step forward by the 2023 trade deadline, they’ll have Erne, Dylan Larkin, Tyler Bertuzzi, Pius Suter, and others to deal as rentals. If there is a big improvement by the young core and the team is contending for the playoffs, a player like Erne can be retained as a relatively inexpensive bottom-six option.

Vancouver Canucks Sign Jason Dickinson

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The Vancouver Canucks have avoided salary arbitration with recently-acquired forward Jason Dickinson. The club has announced that their new addition has signed a three-year contract with a $2.65MM AAV. The deal buys out one UFA year from Dickinson, who had filed for arbitration with a hearing set for August 20. PuckPedia reports that the deal breaks down as follows:

2021-22: $1.5MM + $500K Signing Bonus
2022-23: $2.7MM
2023-24: $3.25MM

Dickinson, 26, came over from the Dallas Stars early last month when it became clear that they could not protect him in the Expansion Draft and grew worried that they would lose him for nothing to the Seattle Kraken. It would have been an interesting theory to test, as the Kraken ended up setting their sights on top UFA defender Jamie Oleksiak, who they selected and signed to a long-term deal. Oleksiak’s availability as an impending free agent was something that Seattle GM Ron Francis likely planned on for some time and he may not have changed his plans even if Dickinson was available.

The Stars’ paranoia was the Canucks’ gain, as they added a versatile, two-way forward who should fit perfectly in head coach Travis Green’s system and it only took a third-round pick to do so. Vancouver clearly feels confident in Dickinson’s place on the team, as they have given him a multi-year deal at nearly double his previous $1.5MM AAV with a steep escalation in salary each year. Any resolution would have been a better alternative to an arbitration hearing, which would have been a difficult start to a new relationship. To Dickinson’s credit, he did prove over the past three years in Dallas, despite limited games and a bottom-six role, that he was well worth a raise. The hard-working forward flashed 30-point upside and special teams dependability while consistently winning puck battles and blocking shots. The type of player that a team can never have too many of, Dickinson hopes to provide the support that Vancouver needs to get back on track this season.

Winnipeg Jets, Andrew Copp Avoid Arbitration

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The Winnipeg Jets have avoided arbitration with another restricted free agent, signing Andrew Copp to a one-year, $3.64MM contract according to Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet. Copp had a hearing scheduled for August 26, which will no longer be necessary.

Copp, 27, will be an unrestricted free agent when the deal expires, but there wasn’t much flexibility for the Jets to sign him to a longer deal. The team is pushed right up against the salary cap even with Bryan Little’s $5.3MM deal moving to long-term injured reserve, meaning a multi-year deal with Copp (which would have carried a higher cap hit) would have required a subsequent move.

Instead, the team will move forward with the group they have now and revisit extension talks down the line. Copp will be eligible to sign a new contract with the team when the calendar turns to 2022. If he continues the play he showed this year, that next deal will certainly be coming with a substantial raise on $3.64MM.

Copp broke out offensively this season, scoring 15 goals and 39 points in just 55 games while playing a much bigger role for the Jets. Not only did he receive more regular powerplay time, but he also averaged 2:29 of short-handed ice time to lead all Winnipeg forwards. Overall he came in behind only Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor, and Blake Wheeler in terms of average ice time, ahead of several more highly-paid teammates. It’s hard to overstate just how important he was to the Jets forward group, serving as a sort of fix-it player for any situation.

While he may not get much fanfare for his performance, other teams surely will have noticed the player that Copp has developed into. His free agent market will be significant if he makes it there, meaning this one-year deal is certainly a risk for the Jets in terms of retaining his services past 2021-22. The team is in a win-now mode though after a disappointing second-round exit, and clearly has decided that the expensive defensive additions were worth the cap squeeze they’re now experiencing.

With Copp signed, the Jets have essentially completed their offseason work, with only Johnny Kovacevic still to sign as a restricted free agent.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Vancouver Canucks Sign Guillaume Brisebois

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The Vancouver Canucks have signed Guillaume Brisebois to a one-year, two-way contract. The young defenseman was eligible for salary arbitration but chose not to file.

Brisebois, 24, played just one game for the Canucks this season, spending most of the year on the taxi squad or in the minor leagues. The 2015 third-round pick has just nine NHL appearances under his belt and has yet to record a single point.

He’ll be entering the 2021-22 season with a long list of defensemen ahead of him on the Canucks depth chart too, after the team made several additions this offseason. Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Tucker Poolman, Luke Schenn and Brad Hunt have all been brought aboard, while Travis Hamonic was re-signed. In all likelihood, Brisebois is ticketed for the AHL, where he’ll be part of the first season in Abbotsford.

The AHL Canucks are actually putting together quite a unit for their first season, bringing in several veteran minor league talents to make sure they’re competitive right away. Brisebois will only add to that level of talent, and wait for an injury or two to open up room on the NHL roster.

Snapshots: Kane, Saros, Pettersson

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With an investigation ongoing into allegations that he bet on NHL games, Evander Kane’s future with the San Jose Sharks isn’t clear. But it was long before that things started to deteriorate between the $7MM forward and his team. Kevin Kurz of The Athletic published an explosive piece today examining the situation in San Jose, reporting that “several key players” told the Sharks management that if Kane remained with the team, they didn’t want to stay.

Kurz writes that the Sharks did explore trading Kane earlier this offseason, but that obviously didn’t come to pass. Now with this new allegation, the reports of locker room turmoil and a bankruptcy case continuing in the background, the 30-year-old forward is “virtually untradeable.” Kane is currently signed through the 2024-25 season and holds a modified no-trade clause that allows him to list just three clubs he could be traded to. He also is coming off arguably his best season as a professional, with 22 goals and 49 points in 56 games.

  • The Nashville Predators are approaching an arbitration hearing with starting goaltender Juuse Saros, scheduled for August 18. Adam Vingan of The Athletic breaks down the case that both sides have, but notes that Saros’ camp is looking for a long-term deal, while the Predators are hoping for a three to four-year contract if things can be worked out before the hearing. Saros truly broke out this season, finishing sixth in the Vezina Trophy voting and even receiving some Hart Trophy recognition, after posting a 21-11-1 record with a .927 save percentage. The 26-year-old goaltender is just a year away from unrestricted free agency, meaning any multi-year contract would be buying out almost exclusively UFA seasons. An arbitration ruling on the other hand could only be one year in length, taking him right to the open market next year.
  • Elias Pettersson is another restricted free agent without a contract, but he doesn’t seem too worried about it. The Vancouver Canucks forward spoke to Uffe Bodin of Hockeysverige and explained that though the two sides are not in agreement on a deal yet, he’s confident they will find a solution. Pettersson also clearly indicated that he wants to be on a winning team, meaning if they want to keep him long-term, the Canucks better start making the playoffs more often.

Winnipeg Jets, Neal Pionk Avoid Arbitration

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The Winnipeg Jets and Neal Pionk won’t need their upcoming arbitration hearing after all, as they’ve agreed on a long-term contract instead. The RFA defenseman has signed a four-year deal that will carry an average annual value of $5.875MM. Pionk’s hearing had been scheduled for Friday. PuckPedia reports the full breakdown:

  • 2021-22: $3.5MM
  • 2022-23: $6.5MM
  • 2023-24: $7.5MM + 6-team no-trade
  • 2024-25: $6.0MM + 6-team no-trade

It’s easy to underestimate just how strong a player Pionk has become because of the market he plays in and the high-profile player he was traded for. Acquired as part of the package for Jacob Trouba, the 26-year-old defenseman has become one of the most reliable offensive defensemen in the league. In fact, since joining the Jets in 2019, Pionk ranks 13th among all NHL defensemen in scoring with 77 points in 125 games. That’s more than twice as many as Trouba, who signed a seven-year, $56MM deal with the Rangers upon arrival.

That’s not to say the two are directly comparable, but is just evidence to show how valuable Pionk has become in Winnipeg. He has averaged nearly 23 minutes a night since arriving, contributing to both the powerplay and penalty kill. When the Jets’ need for a defenseman was discussed at length this season it was to find Pionk some help, but his place on this team will continue to be a leading one.

By buying out two years of unrestricted free agency, the Jets have locked up Pionk through his prime, but it didn’t come at much of a bargain. After acquiring Nate Schmidt and Brenden Dillon this offseason, the team now has five defensemen making at least $3MM for the next three seasons. Winnipeg now sits just barely under the salary cap ceiling but still has a lot of work to do, with an arbitration case for Andrew Copp on the horizon. The team does have some wiggle room as Bryan Little will be placed on long-term injured reserve again, but it isn’t a lot considering they have just nine forwards signed to one-way deals at the moment.

Committing so much to the defense is not usually a bad plan, but it’s unclear exactly how the Jets expect to give their young options playing time now. Logan Stanley, Ville Heinola, Sami Niku, and Dylan Samberg are all ready to contribute, but the route to the roster is pretty much blocked through 2023-24. There will be one regular spot to fight over when the season begins (injuries notwithstanding), with Stanley obviously having the inside track after his performance this year.

For Pionk, this contract is basically perfect, giving him a huge raise through the next several years while still letting him test free agency at a young enough age to land another multi-year deal.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Jakub Vrana, Detroit Red Wings Avoid Arbitration

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It was getting close to the wire, but the Detroit Red Wings and Jakub Vrana won’t need their arbitration hearing tomorrow after all. Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet reports that the two sides have agreed upon a three-year contract, avoiding the rest of the arbitration process. The deal will carry an average annual value of $5.25MM and CapFriendly reports the deal breaks down as follows:

2021-22: $4.75MM
2022-23: $5.25MM
2023-24: $5.75MM

Vrana had filed for $5.7MM. while the Red Wings had countered with $3.65MM, but neither one of those would have represented a three-year contract. With this new deal, Vrana will actually be giving up one year of unrestricted free agency, something that can’t be awarded through arbitration.

For $5.25MM, he gets a healthy raise from the $3.35MM cap hit he carried over the last two seasons. He will tie Frans Nielsen as the team’s second-highest-paid forward, just below Dylan Larkin’s $6.1MM. That represents his place in the lineup, as Vrana is arguably the team’s most exciting forward heading into this season after lighting it up following a midseason trade. Acquired from the Washington Capitals as part of a package for Anthony Mantha, Vrana scored eight goals and 11 points in 11 games down the stretch.

That kind of production hasn’t been common in Detroit recently, but it actually shouldn’t be all that surprising from the 25-year-old Czech.  In the 2019-20 season, he had 25 goals and 52 points in 69 games for the Capitals. His playoff performance left something to be desired though, which likely factored into the decision to move him for a bigger Mantha. Still, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Vrana outproduce Mantha during the regular season at least, and he now comes in at a cheaper price tag. The big forward in Washington is on a four-year deal that carries a $5.7MM cap hit.

With the Red Wings in the early stages of a rebuild still, it will be interesting to see if Vrana even plays out this deal in Detroit. Though he’s not old by any means, he is quite a few years older than the rest of the talent that GM Steve Yzerman is collecting. There’s certainly no guarantee that the Red Wings will be competitive by the time Vrana’s entering the final year of this deal, meaning he could become a rental down the road. For now, he’ll be getting a huge opportunity in the team’s top-six to play big minutes and show what his offensive ceiling really is.

Now that Vrana has settled, Neal Pionk is next on the arbitration list. His hearing is scheduled for Friday.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Arbitration Breakdown: Jakub Vrana

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While most of the players who had early arbitration dates have settled in recent days, that hasn’t been the case yet for the Red Wings and Jakub Vrana.  They have until the start of the hearing on Wednesday to reach an agreement; once the hearing starts, they will have to go through the process and wait for the award.

Filings

Team: $3.65MM
Player: $5.7MM
Midpoint: $4.675MM

(via Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman)

The Numbers

It was a tale of two seasons for Vrana.  He spent the majority of the year with Washington and while his numbers weren’t underwhelming with them, he did take a step back from his career-best 52 points in 2019-20.  But his fortunes changed upon being traded to Detroit.  The 25-year-old took off, notching eight goals and three assists in 11 games and in the process, brought his per-game averages close to what they were the year before.  Overall, the platform year was decent.

Of course, 11 games is a particularly small sample size which adds a wrinkle to these talks.  Vrana logged considerably more minutes with the Red Wings than he ever had a chance to with the Capitals but it’s hard to make any substantive conclusions based on his performance over the span of a few weeks when they were playing out the stretch.

Vrana’s track record isn’t the deepest either as only his last three seasons have yielded above-average production and two of those came in shortened years.  While that shouldn’t hurt him much in a hearing, it’s worth noting that over his five-year career, he has played in fewer than 300 regular season contests which is a bit on the low side for a fifth-year player in the top six.

2020-21 Stats: 50 GP, 19-17-36, +10 rating, 10 PIMS, 100 shots, 15:00 ATOI
Career Stats: 295 GP, 84-84-168, +37 rating, 69 PIMS, 613 shots, 13:49 ATOI

Potential Comparables

Comparable contracts are restricted to those signed within restricted free agency which means UFA deals and entry-level pacts are ineligible to be used.  The contracts below fit within those parameters.  Player salaries (or current-year equivalents) also fall within the parameters of the submitted numbers by both sides.  Career stats listed are as of the time of signing.

Oliver Bjorkstrand (Blue Jackets) – Similar to Vrana, Bjorkstrand signed his contract after three seasons of top-six performance with a limited track record before that.  The situation is a little different in that Bjorkstrand’s platform year was by far his best.  That likely sets this one at the high end of what Vrana could realistically command in a hearing.

Contract (2021): Five years, $5.4MM AAV, 6.63 CH%
Platform Stats: 49 GP, 21-15-36, +8 rating, 12 PIMS, 162 shots, 17:56 ATOI
Career Stats: 246 GP, 65-68-133, +30 rating, 35 PIMS, 566 shots, 14:28 ATOI

Boone Jenner (Blue Jackets) – Now let’s look at the other end of the spectrum.  While Jenner has settled into more of a checking role in recent years, his current four-year deal was signed post-bridge like Vrana is currently in.  In terms of a role, both players were in and out of the middle six at times and the career point totals are similar although Vrana has played fewer games.  This choice was a guess at what comparable Detroit was using for their number.

Contract (2018): Four years, $3.75MM AAV, 4.72 CH%
Platform Stats: 75 GP, 13-19-32, +1 rating, 39 PIMS, 187 shots, 16:28 ATOI
Career Stats: 342 GP, 86-75-161, +1 rating, 225 PIMS, 833 shots, 16:01 ATOI

Conor Garland (Canucks) – Let’s look at a recent deal handed out to a top-six winger post-bridge deal.  Garland doesn’t have close to as long of a track record as Vrana but their production over the past two seasons is fairly close and the fact the platforms are directly comparable certainly helps.  Recent performance counts for a lot in this process so this is one that Vrana’s camp will want to use.

Contract (2021): Five years, $4.95MM AAV, 6.07 CH%
Platform Stats: 49 GP, 12-27-39, -3 rating, 26 PIMS, 135 shots, 17:55 ATOI
Career Stats: 164 GP, 47-49-96, -1 rating, 58 PIMS, 411 shots, 14:53 ATOI

Kevin Labanc (Sharks) – One year after signing a highly team-friendly deal, Labanc inked a four-year deal that raised some eyebrows but there are some comparables here.  The roles were largely the same (mostly top six but dropped down at times), three years of top-six production, and a contract signed post-bridge.

Contract (2020): Four years, $4.725MM AAV, 5.80 CH%
Platform Stats: 70 GP, 14-19-33, -33 rating, 38 PIMS, 176 shots, 16:04 ATOI
Career Stats: 284 GP, 50-99-149, -31 rating, 128 PIMS, 532 shots, 14:33 ATOI

Elias Lindholm (Flames) – While it took Lindholm a bit of time to become a legitimate top-six piece, the Flames signed him after acquiring him from Carolina to this current deal (one that has worked out quite well so far).  Vrana’s best statistical seasons were better than Lindholm’s but the latter had the longer track record.

Contract (2018): Six years, $4.85MM AAV, 6.10 CH%
Platform Stats: 81 GP, 16-28-44, -8 rating, 18 PIMS, 153 shots, 17:54 ATOI
Career Stats: 374 GP, 64-124-188, -70 rating, 76 PIMS, 720 shots, 17:09 ATOI

Projection

Worth noting is that Detroit gets to elect the term of the contract since Vrana was the one to file.  With the winger being two years from UFA eligibility, it stands to reason that the Red Wings will elect the one-year term while Vrana’s camp likely filed a two-year proposal.

The comparable contracts seem to be more in Vrana’s favor with the deals hovering around the $5MM and 6.0 CH% range.  That should be the point where a long-term checks in which would put it a little below the $5.7MM AAV (6.99 CH%) of the player he was traded for in Anthony Mantha.  I’d peg a long-term deal that buys out at least two UFA years a little above Garland’s deal which would put the AAV around $5.05MM (6.2 CH%) and a little above the midpoint of the two filings.  If they wind up settling for a one-year pact that would keep Vrana RFA-eligible next summer, that could move the needle a little below the midpoint in the $4.6MM range.  Either way, he’s looking at a nice raise for next season compared to the $3MM salary he had in 2020-21.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Tampa Bay Lightning Avoid Arbitration With Ross Colton

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7:00 PM: The Lightning have officially announced the contract.

1:30 PM: The Tampa Bay Lightning have locked up the player who clinched their recent Stanley Cup, signing Ross Colton to a two-year contract. The deal is worth $1MM in 2021-22 and $1.25MM in 2022-23, according to Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet. Colton was scheduled for an arbitration hearing on August 16 that will no longer be required.

Colton, 24, scored the Cup-winning goal for the Lightning a month ago, tapping home a backdoor pass from David Savard. The young forward is another example of Tampa Bay’s strong development system, going from a fourth-round pick in the 2016 draft to a regular in the NHL lineup this season. In 30 regular season games as a rookie, Colton managed to score nine goals and 12 points. That goal pace likely won’t continue right away, but just the fact that the team has turned another mid-round pick into an NHL player is a win for the organization.

He didn’t really come out of nowhere though, as Colton found success in each of his years at the University of Vermont before starring for the Syracuse Crunch. In 2019-20 he registered 42 points in 62 games for Syracuse, throwing himself into the mix for a call-up if the Lightning ever needed a versatile player. The fact is that Colton has made himself a valuable player by being able to play center or the wing, score with the top-six, or check with the bottom-six.

Given the fact that Tampa Bay has been forced to watch Tyler Johnson, Yanni Gourde, Barclay Goodrow and Blake Coleman leave this summer, there should be even more minutes on the table for Colton this season. While it’s not certain how things shake out, he should get quite the opportunity with the defending champs.

For the Lightning, they have now finished their restricted free agent negotiations and can focus on preparing for the regular season. The team is technically over the salary cap right now, but can move Brent Seabrook’s contract to long-term injured reserve when necessary. It appears as though the offseason work is done, but never count out GM Julien BriseBois.

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