Arbitration Breakdown: Jakub Vrana

While most of the players who had early arbitration dates have settled in recent days, that hasn’t been the case yet for the Red Wings and Jakub Vrana.  They have until the start of the hearing on Wednesday to reach an agreement; once the hearing starts, they will have to go through the process and wait for the award.

Filings

Team: $3.65MM
Player: $5.7MM
Midpoint: $4.675MM

(via Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman)

The Numbers

It was a tale of two seasons for Vrana.  He spent the majority of the year with Washington and while his numbers weren’t underwhelming with them, he did take a step back from his career-best 52 points in 2019-20.  But his fortunes changed upon being traded to Detroit.  The 25-year-old took off, notching eight goals and three assists in 11 games and in the process, brought his per-game averages close to what they were the year before.  Overall, the platform year was decent.

Of course, 11 games is a particularly small sample size which adds a wrinkle to these talks.  Vrana logged considerably more minutes with the Red Wings than he ever had a chance to with the Capitals but it’s hard to make any substantive conclusions based on his performance over the span of a few weeks when they were playing out the stretch.

Vrana’s track record isn’t the deepest either as only his last three seasons have yielded above-average production and two of those came in shortened years.  While that shouldn’t hurt him much in a hearing, it’s worth noting that over his five-year career, he has played in fewer than 300 regular season contests which is a bit on the low side for a fifth-year player in the top six.

2020-21 Stats: 50 GP, 19-17-36, +10 rating, 10 PIMS, 100 shots, 15:00 ATOI
Career Stats: 295 GP, 84-84-168, +37 rating, 69 PIMS, 613 shots, 13:49 ATOI

Potential Comparables

Comparable contracts are restricted to those signed within restricted free agency which means UFA deals and entry-level pacts are ineligible to be used.  The contracts below fit within those parameters.  Player salaries (or current-year equivalents) also fall within the parameters of the submitted numbers by both sides.  Career stats listed are as of the time of signing.

Oliver Bjorkstrand (Blue Jackets) – Similar to Vrana, Bjorkstrand signed his contract after three seasons of top-six performance with a limited track record before that.  The situation is a little different in that Bjorkstrand’s platform year was by far his best.  That likely sets this one at the high end of what Vrana could realistically command in a hearing.

Contract (2021): Five years, $5.4MM AAV, 6.63 CH%
Platform Stats: 49 GP, 21-15-36, +8 rating, 12 PIMS, 162 shots, 17:56 ATOI
Career Stats: 246 GP, 65-68-133, +30 rating, 35 PIMS, 566 shots, 14:28 ATOI

Boone Jenner (Blue Jackets) – Now let’s look at the other end of the spectrum.  While Jenner has settled into more of a checking role in recent years, his current four-year deal was signed post-bridge like Vrana is currently in.  In terms of a role, both players were in and out of the middle six at times and the career point totals are similar although Vrana has played fewer games.  This choice was a guess at what comparable Detroit was using for their number.

Contract (2018): Four years, $3.75MM AAV, 4.72 CH%
Platform Stats: 75 GP, 13-19-32, +1 rating, 39 PIMS, 187 shots, 16:28 ATOI
Career Stats: 342 GP, 86-75-161, +1 rating, 225 PIMS, 833 shots, 16:01 ATOI

Conor Garland (Canucks) – Let’s look at a recent deal handed out to a top-six winger post-bridge deal.  Garland doesn’t have close to as long of a track record as Vrana but their production over the past two seasons is fairly close and the fact the platforms are directly comparable certainly helps.  Recent performance counts for a lot in this process so this is one that Vrana’s camp will want to use.

Contract (2021): Five years, $4.95MM AAV, 6.07 CH%
Platform Stats: 49 GP, 12-27-39, -3 rating, 26 PIMS, 135 shots, 17:55 ATOI
Career Stats: 164 GP, 47-49-96, -1 rating, 58 PIMS, 411 shots, 14:53 ATOI

Kevin Labanc (Sharks) – One year after signing a highly team-friendly deal, Labanc inked a four-year deal that raised some eyebrows but there are some comparables here.  The roles were largely the same (mostly top six but dropped down at times), three years of top-six production, and a contract signed post-bridge.

Contract (2020): Four years, $4.725MM AAV, 5.80 CH%
Platform Stats: 70 GP, 14-19-33, -33 rating, 38 PIMS, 176 shots, 16:04 ATOI
Career Stats: 284 GP, 50-99-149, -31 rating, 128 PIMS, 532 shots, 14:33 ATOI

Elias Lindholm (Flames) – While it took Lindholm a bit of time to become a legitimate top-six piece, the Flames signed him after acquiring him from Carolina to this current deal (one that has worked out quite well so far).  Vrana’s best statistical seasons were better than Lindholm’s but the latter had the longer track record.

Contract (2018): Six years, $4.85MM AAV, 6.10 CH%
Platform Stats: 81 GP, 16-28-44, -8 rating, 18 PIMS, 153 shots, 17:54 ATOI
Career Stats: 374 GP, 64-124-188, -70 rating, 76 PIMS, 720 shots, 17:09 ATOI

Projection

Worth noting is that Detroit gets to elect the term of the contract since Vrana was the one to file.  With the winger being two years from UFA eligibility, it stands to reason that the Red Wings will elect the one-year term while Vrana’s camp likely filed a two-year proposal.

The comparable contracts seem to be more in Vrana’s favor with the deals hovering around the $5MM and 6.0 CH% range.  That should be the point where a long-term checks in which would put it a little below the $5.7MM AAV (6.99 CH%) of the player he was traded for in Anthony Mantha.  I’d peg a long-term deal that buys out at least two UFA years a little above Garland’s deal which would put the AAV around $5.05MM (6.2 CH%) and a little above the midpoint of the two filings.  If they wind up settling for a one-year pact that would keep Vrana RFA-eligible next summer, that could move the needle a little below the midpoint in the $4.6MM range.  Either way, he’s looking at a nice raise for next season compared to the $3MM salary he had in 2020-21.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.