Navigating the salary cap is one of the most important tasks for a front office. Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those who don’t often see struggles and front office changes.
PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation for the 2025-26 season. This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of PuckPedia. We’re currently covering the Central Division, next up are the Avalanche.
Dallas Stars
Current Cap Hit: $95,094,916 (below the $95.5MM Upper Limit)
Entry-Level Contracts
D Lian Bichsel (two years, $918K)
Potential Bonuses
Bichsel: $500K
Bichsel split time between Dallas and AHL Texas last season before being a regular for them in the playoffs, albeit with limited playing time. He should crack the roster on a full-time basis this year but still in a third-pairing role, which doesn’t bode well for reaching his bonuses. Given their longer-term cap situation which we’ll get into as we go along, it would be surprising if his next deal isn’t a short-term bridge contract, likely around the $2MM range.
Signed Through 2025-26, Non-Entry-Level
F Nathan Bastian ($775K, UFA)
F Jamie Benn ($1MM, UFA)
F Mavrik Bourque ($950K, RFA)
D Thomas Harley ($4MM, RFA)
D Nils Lundkvist ($1.25MM, UFA)
D Alexander Petrovic ($775K, UFA)
F Jason Robertson ($7.75MM, RFA)
Potential Bonuses
Benn: $3MM
Robertson’s situation has garnered plenty of attention with his name coming up in trade speculation. He’s averaging over a point per game for his career and has notched at least 79 points in four straight seasons. That’s top-line numbers and he’ll be looking for top-line money next summer which should push his cap charge well past the $10MM mark. Notably, his qualifying offer is $9.3MM with salary arbitration rights. Benn re-signed this bonus-laden deal to allow Dallas to keep cap-compliant this season, one that is team-friendly even with the bonuses. $2MM of that is games-played based while the other $1MM is based on team playoff success. If he wants to remain with the Stars beyond this season, it’s probably going to be on a similarly structured agreement.
Bourque was a speculative offer sheet candidate this summer but agreed to this deal before the draft to take that off the table. Had he tested restricted free agency, he’d have landed more than this but the one-year term sets him up for arbitration eligibility and a shot to triple this or more next summer if all goes well. Bastian was a recent signing from the Devils and has been a physical fourth liner throughout his career but his offensive production has largely been limited. That should keep him around the minimum salary barring a big jump in output.
While Robertson’s case has garnered the majority of the attention for next year’s free agency, Harley’s is arguably just as significant. He showed last season that his 2023-24 breakout effort was no fluke, taking on an even bigger role and being just as productive. He is now a legitimate top-pairing player. As a result, this could be a situation where his pay increase next summer is higher than what Robertson’s is going to be. Noah Dobson’s eight-year, $9.5MM AAV contract signed this summer looms large as a viable comparable while ticking past $10MM per season is a real possibility as well. Notably, he’s not UFA-eligible until 2029 so one option that could be considered is another two-year bridge deal more in the $7MM range which could allow their reported desire to work within an internal cap to happen. That would buy them a bit of short-term flexibility at a time when cap space is going to be tight so GM while Jim Nill likely doesn’t prefer to go that way, he might have to.
Lundkvist looked to be heading toward a non-tender to duck arbitration rights for the second straight year before signing this contract for the same amount he made last season. Between some struggles and injuries, 2024-25 was largely a write-off so he’s getting near the point of either needing to take that step forward or understanding that he might not be more than the depth player he currently is. Petrovic spent most of last season in the minors before playing in most of the playoffs in Dallas which should give him a leg up for a full-time spot to start this year. Even so, his track record has only been that of a depth defender thus far and at 33, that’s unlikely to change. He should stay around the minimum salary moving forward although a full year in the NHL could flip his next deal to a one-way pact.
Signed Through 2026-27
F Oskar Back ($825K, UFA)
F Colin Blackwell ($775K, UFA)
G Casey DeSmith ($1MM, UFA)
D Ilya Lyubushkin ($3.25MM, UFA)
F Tyler Seguin ($9.85MM, UFA)
F Sam Steel ($2.1MM, UFA)
A hip issue sidelined Seguin for most of last season although he was a little over a point per game in his limited action. However, he has generally been more in the 50-point range in recent years and this price tag for that type of production isn’t great. He’ll be 35 when his next deal starts and while a multi-year pact should still be doable then, it’s going to come with a multi-million-dollar drop in AAV. Steel inked this deal back before the trade deadline in the midst of his fourth straight season with at least 20 points. Between that and his ability to kill penalties, he should be able to provide decent value on this contract but unless his point production starts to go up, he might not be able to go too much higher than this.
Back had a decent rookie year, getting into 73 games while holding his own in a bottom-six role to secure this deal at a rate that will be below the minimum salary next season. Assuming he remains a regular in this type of role for them, this should work out just fine while Back should be able to push more into the $1.25MM range on his next deal. Blackwell fit in nicely in a depth role last season, earning this new contract along the way. While he had a couple of years in the past with a seven-figure salary, he’s someone who should be staying around the minimum salary on any future contracts.
Lyubushkin was brought in to bring some physicality to the back and stabilize the bottom pairing. He was able to do that for the most part although this contract is on the higher side for that type of role which led to some speculation about his future when they needed to open up cap space. It would be surprising to see him beat this by any significant amount two years from now but another contract in this price range might be doable.
DeSmith is certainly at the lower end of the salary scale for backup goalies as he opted for stability and a winning environment over trying to get the highest price tag. He certainly had a solid first year with numbers that should have him toward the higher end of the backup scale (more in the $3.5MM territory). He’ll be 36 when this deal expires so it’s unlikely that he’ll find a contract in that range but value-wise, he should double this if he looks for top dollar next time out.
Signed Through 2027-28
F Radek Faksa ($2MM, UFA)
Faksa returns after a one-year stint in St. Louis after Dallas needed to clear his contract last summer. While he showed some offensive upside early in his career, he has settled into more of a pure checking role in recent seasons. Between his penalty killing utility and his faceoff skills, he should be able to provide a good return on this contract, even with the points remaining hard to come by. But unless his production improves, he likely won’t command much more than this moving forward.
Signed Through 2028-29
F Matt Duchene ($4.5MM, UFA)
D Miro Heiskanen ($8.45MM, UFA)
With Duchene making it known that he didn’t want to settle for another one-year contract this time around, it looked like his days could be numbered. And then he signed a below-market deal to stay. The trade-off is four years for a 34-year-old which isn’t ideal but he’s coming off an 82-point effort last season and could have plausibly surpassed $7MM on a multi-year contract (though not four years) on the open market.
Heiskanen is the potential internal cap on Harley’s contract and understandably so given his overall track record. (Whether a different salary cap environment makes that feasible remains to be seen.) He’s coming off an injury-riddled year but he’s an all-situations number one defenseman and the market for those has easily pushed past the $10MM mark. He’s heading for another big raise as things stand.
Signed Through 2029-30 Or Longer
F Roope Hintz ($8.45MM through 2030-31)
F Wyatt Johnston ($8.4MM through 2029-30)
D Esa Lindell ($5.25MM through 2029-30)
G Jake Oettinger ($8.25MM through 2032-33)
F Mikko Rantanen ($12MM through 2032-33)
It was quite an interesting year for Rantanen who couldn’t agree to terms with Colorado and didn’t want to agree to terms with Carolina, only to go to Dallas and sign a contract that was believed to be in the neighborhood of what the Avs were offering. That deal was a record-setting pact for a winger (since matched by Mitch Marner in Vegas). Rantanen has consistently been one of the top-scoring wingers in the NHL in recent years and while he didn’t go great in the regular season after the first trade, he showed his ability to carry a line in the playoffs. As is often the case with these types of contracts, surplus value will be hard to come by but as long as he remains the type of player he has been for a lot of his career, this will hold up well.
Hintz isn’t necessarily viewed as a true number one center but with a forward group that’s more driven from the wing, he fits the bill just fine while averaging 33 goals per season over the last four years. It would be surprising to see his output jump up to a true top level but a steady and reliable 70-point center like he is would probably have gotten more than this on the open market this summer. It feels like Hintz’s deal was the internal cap for Johnston, who signed a contract that only bought Dallas one additional year of club control. That will give them a better shot at keeping the core intact, of course, while setting Johnston up to reach unrestricted free agency at 27. That contract could be a whopper if he continues to progress; in a more inflated cap environment, Rantanen’s price tag could be within reach if he keeps improving.
Lindell has been a strong defensive defender throughout his NHL career while typically chipping in with a point total in the mid-20s. He’s capable of playing top-pairing minutes although in the long run, he might be best off in a number three role. As things stand, this is a deal that already holds up well and should continue to do so for the foreseeable future. Already 31, he’ll be 36 when his next contract starts so while a small raise might come his way, it shouldn’t be too much higher, especially on a multi-year pact.
After some high-end performances to start his career, Oettinger hasn’t been able to get quite back to that level over the last couple of years. That said, he’s still a well-above-average starter locked up at a rate we’ve seen a few starters of his caliber receive recently. As long as he performs at a top-10 level or so, this contract should hold up pretty well.
Still To Sign
None
Buyouts
D Ryan Suter ($1.433MM in 2025-26)
Retained Salary Transactions
None
Carryover Bonus Overage Penalty
$368,250
Best Value: (non-entry-level) Harley
Worst Value: Seguin
Looking Ahead
As a result of having several players on contracts considerably below market value, the Stars will enter the season with one of the strongest rosters on paper once again. But they won’t be entering it with much cap space unless they’re willing to go one or two skaters below the maximum on the active roster. That still won’t be enough to bank enough in-season room to do much but that would at least buy them a little wiggle room for injuries.
The cap crunch isn’t going away next summer, either. Harley and Robertson will make navigating the 2026-27 Upper Limit rather difficult, even with an $8.5MM increase. However, the year after that, getting Seguin off the books coupled with a projected $9.5MM bump to the cap ceiling should give them some much-needed wiggle room. But if they wind up having to bridge Harley next summer, that flexibility could be short-lived. That all said, it’s still a good problem to have given that they should once again be a contender in the West; it’s better to have a good cap-crunched roster than a lot of cap space with a weaker group.
Photos courtesy of Jerome Miron and Perry Nelson-Imagn Images.