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Analyzing 2021 NHL Draft Capital

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Draft picks are not created equal, that much is certain. While there is randomness and unpredictability inherent in any professional sports draft, higher picks still have a higher likelihood of success. That decline in value is not linear, either, as early picks hold much greater weight. However, it is difficult to judge just how valuable one selection may be compared to another or, in the process of making a trade, several. Many sources have tried to quantify the value of draft picks based on historical data. The Athletic’s Dom Luszczyszyn produced one of the more recent models ahead of last year’s NHL Entry Draft. Using an aggregate statistic known as Game Score Value Added, or GSVA, Luszczyszyn ranked all draft picks on how the average selection pans out in the NHL. Not only was the drop-off not linear, it showed an incredibly steep decline that all but flatlined after the third round. Using that model, it is clear that quality is greater than quantity when it comes to the NHL Draft, though a quantity of quality picks is the ultimate prize

How does that play out this year? Here is a look at each team’s draft capital in the upcoming draft by total GSVA to provide, as well as an idea of how they might be able to use it to move up and down the draft board, adding high value picks or adding additional picks, based on number of selections, specific draft slots, and prospect depth. Though draft pick trades are not nearly as common in the NHL as in some other major North American sports, in a deep and unpredictable draft later this month there could be a shift in the status quo.

1. Buffalo Sabres
No. of Picks: 10
Total GSVA: 24.9
Potential Draft Move: Trade Up Into First Round

2. Detroit Red Wings
No. of Picks: 12
Total GSVA: 19.5
Potential Draft Move: Trade Up In First Round

3. Seattle Kraken
No. of Picks: 7
Total GSVA: 16.9
Potential Draft Move: Trade Back In First Round

4. Columbus Blue Jackets
No. of Picks: 9
Total GSVA: 16.7
Potential Draft Move: Trade Up In First Round

5. New Jersey Devils
No. of Picks: 8
Total GSVA: 15.3
Potential Draft Move: Trade Up In First Round

6. Anaheim Ducks
No. of Picks: 7
Total GSVA: 14.9
Potential Draft Move: Trade Back In Second Round

7. Ottawa Senators
No. of Picks: 6
Total GSVA: 11.4
Potential Draft Move: Trade Up Into First Round

8. Minnesota Wild
No. of Picks: 9
Total GSVA: 11
Potential Draft Move: Trade Up In First Round

9. Los Angeles Kings
No. of Picks: 7
Total GSVA: 10.7
Potential Draft Move: Trade Up Into Second Round

10. Vancouver Canucks
No of Picks: 8
Total GSVA: 10.2
Potential Draft Move: Trade Back In Second Round
Read more

Expansion Primer: Boston Bruins

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Over the last few weeks, we have been breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, who will likely warrant protection, and which ones may be on the block to avoid the risk of losing them for nothing? Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4:00 PM CDT on July 17th. The full eligibility rules can be found here, while CapFriendly has an expansion tool to make your own lists.

In the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft, the Boston Bruins were able to protect all of their key forwards but had to make a difficult choice of who to protect on defense other than Zdeno Chara and Torey Krug. The third spot came down to physical veteran Kevan Miller and skilled youngster Colin Miller. It was a lose-lose, as whoever they did not protect was expected to be selected by the Vegas Golden Knights. The Bruins opted to stay loyal to the veteran and watched a promising young blue liner find success elsewhere.

This time around, the Bruins are again able to protect their most valuable assets, with a little luck from some timely expiring contracts, and this time around don’t have any hard choices to make on defense. Yet, the team will again have to expose talented young defensemen and very likely will suffer another tough loss.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:
Patrice Bergeron (NMC), Charlie Coyle (NMC), Brad Marchand (NMC), Peter Cehlarik, Jake DeBrusk, Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson, Trent Frederic, Cameron Hughes, Ondrej Kase, Joona Koppanen, Karson Kuhlman, Curtis Lazar, David Pastrnak, Nick Ritchie, Zach Senyshyn, Craig Smith, Chris Wagner

Defense:
|Linus Arnesson, Brandon Carlo, Connor Clifton, Matt Grzelcyk, Jeremy Lauzon, Charlie McAvoy, John Moore, Jakub Zboril

Goalies:
Callum Booth, Daniel Vladar

Notable Unrestricted Free Agents

G Jaroslav Halak, F Taylor Hall, F David Krejci, F Sean Kuraly, D Kevan Miller, G Tuukka Rask, D Mike Reilly

Notable Exemptions

F John Beecher, G Jeremy Swayman, F Jack Studnicka, D Urho Vaakanainen

Key Decisions

The Bruins are guaranteed to lose a good player to the Seattle Kraken, but it could be much worse. Career Bruins Krejci and Rask, who are still playing at an elite level, are currently unrestricted free agents and have essentially made it known that they will play only in Boston or else retire. The duo would have no choice if under contract and exposed in the Expansion Draft, but their long-term contracts expired just in time. Trade Deadline addition Hall, who proved to be a terrific fit, is also a UFA and has expressed interest in re-signing in Boston. Seattle is unlikely to select the former MVP if his mind is set on staying with the Bruins. Even valuable depth pieces who are not necessarily locks to re-sign with Boston but have at least discussed the possibility, such as Kuraly, Miller, and Reilly, are currently free agents and have free will over their next move whether selected by the Kraken or not. The Bruins essentially have lucked into upwards of six additional protection slots by way of timely free agency for players who would like to return to Boston.

With the actual protection slots that the team does have, many of the decisions have been made for them. No-Movement Clauses for icons Bergeron and Marchand, as well as local product Coyle, will keep the trio protected. Bergeron and Marchand would have been obvious protections anyway and, even after a down year, the versatile, two-way Coyle likely would have been as well, in hopes that he returns to form following much-needed knee repairs this off-season. In net, by default the team will keep promising young goaltender Vladar as starter Rask and backup Halak are free agents, future starter Swayman is exempt, and minor leaguer Booth was seemingly signed for the exact purpose of meeting the exposure requirements.

Elsewhere on the roster there are some automatic protections as well. Young stars McAvoy and Pastrnak are no-brainers for protection, especially after both were nearly NHL All-Star selections this year. Carlo, another standout young defenseman, will also surely be protected, as will veteran winger Smith who the team just signed to a bargain, multi-year deal last off-season.

On defense, there is one spot open and while there may have been some debate as to who to protect before this season, Grzelcyk quickly ended that conversation. The 27-year-old puck-mover had a career year across the board as he stepped into the void left by Krug’s free agency departure and proved himself invaluable to the Bruins. Had he failed to do so, he may not have been the easy choice with other younger defenders in the mix.

While Boston is surely happy that they can protect the only defensemen under contract who have proven themselves as top-four options, and also have some potential UFA returners and exempt prospects who could play key roles next season, the team is still set up to possibly take a big loss on the blue line in the draft. Exposing all three of Lauzon, Zboril, and Clifton gives Seattle multiple young options to consider stealing from the Bruins. Lauzon would be the biggest hit, definitely on defense but possibly on the whole roster. The 24-year-old is a reliable defensive presence who is dominant on the penalty kill, is physical, and is not a liability moving the puck or contributing in the offensive zone. He may not have enormous upside, but could be an NHL starter for many years to come. Zboril, also 24, finished seventh in voting for the NHL’s All-Rookie team this year and was one of the AHL’s top defensemen last year. While he did not do as much with his opportunity this season compared to Lauzon, Zboril is a balanced defenseman with arguably more upside that Lauzon who could take a major step forward once he overcomes some bad tendencies and polishes his game. Clifton, though unlikely to play above the bottom pair in the NHL, plays a physical, high-intensity brand of hockey that makes him a refreshing addition to the lineup as an extra man. While he is limited in some areas, Clifton is nevertheless an eye-catching presence on the ice. Any of the three affordable young blue liners would be unsurprising selections by Seattle.

In contrast, the forwards remaining – especially with two protection slots yet to be claimed – are far less likely to be chosen. For starters, the biggest available name, DeBrusk, will not be available. Despite a very poor 2020-21 campaign, DeBrusk is still a 24-year-old forward with a 27-goal season and two 40+ point seasons on his resume. In DeBrusk’s first three seasons, he played at an 82-game pace of 25 goals and 49 points. While his production this season was far from that mark, the Bruins are not ready to give up on him that easy. At $3.675MM on the final year of his current contract, DeBrusk is a palatable cap hit in exchange for the upside. While it is true that he may need a chance of scenery, the Bruins will not just give him away; they will hold out for a fair trade or not move him at all. If DeBrusk is still a Bruin by this weekend, he will almost definitely be protected.

One spot left up front and so many options. All have their reasons for, but also have reasons against protection. Of the remaining group of available names, Ritchie was far and away the top scorer. However, the big winger’s production was heavily weighted on his early season power play role. As the year wore on, Ritchie’s production disappeared and by the end of the playoffs he had been demoted to the fourth line. A restricted free agent with limited ability given his offensive and defensive shortcomings, the Bruins can hope that Seattle bites based on Ritchie’s goal scoring numbers this year, but it is unlikely. Even if the team wants him back, they will probably not protect him.

The same goes for Kase. On talent alone, Kase should be protected and if left unprotected should be the obvious selection for the Kraken. However, his injury history makes both teams wary. Kase missed all but three games this season due to concussion issues and his future is unknown. The Bruins may want to keep Kase around after trading for him just last year, but not at his $2.6MM qualifying offer given the injury risk, meaning they likely plan to make him an unrestricted free agent anyway. Also knowing Seattle is unlikely to risk an expansion selection on a player who may never be healthy, it would be surprising to see Kase protected.

Seemingly just a throw-in to the Hall trade, Lazar was a great fit with the Bruins down the stretch and in the postseason and if not selected in the Expansion Draft looks to anchor the fourth line and contribute to the penalty kill in Boston next year. However, he is one year away from unrestricted free agency and has bounced around the NHL with limited sustained success in his young career. The Bruins are unlikely to protect him and know Seattle is unlikely to select him for the same reasons. As for fellow fourth liner Wagner, the local product was worth a multi-year deal at $1.35MM AAV to the Bruins, but not to most other teams. Expecting the Kraken to pass, the Bruins probably do not protect Wagner. The team also knows that in the event that Lazar or Wagner are in fact taken by Seattle, they have plenty of defensive-minded forwards waiting in the AHL for opportunity.

So who gets the final protection slot? The smart money is on young Frederic. The 2016 first-round pick is a budding fan favorite in Boston with his hard-nosed style and willingness to drop the gloves. Frederic also showed good offensive ability in the NCAA and AHL prior to his arrival as an NHL regular this season. He still has some holes to his game with growing left to do, but the Bruins lacked grit and physicality at times this season and know they can get at least that from Frederic, if not more. With a higher ceiling than any other bottom-six forward in consideration (not including a healthy Kase), Frederic offers the most potential value to the Bruins.

Projected Protection List

F Patrice Bergeron (NMC)
F Charlie Coyle (NMC)
F Jake DeBrusk
F Trent Frederic
F Brad Marchand (NMC)
F David Pastrnak
F Craig Smith

D Brandon Carlo
D Matt Grzelcyk
D Charlie McAvoy

G Daniel Vladar

Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist

When Vegas had their expansion draft, a minimum of two forwards and one defenseman had to be exposed that were under contract and played either 40 games in the most recent season or 70 over the past two combined.  Due to the pandemic, those thresholds have been changed to 27 games played in 2020-21 or 54 in 2019/20 and 2020-21 combined.  In creating our expansion list for each team in this series, we will ensure that these criteria are met.

Forwards (2): Curtis Lazar, Chris Wagner
Defensemen (3): Connor Clifton, Jeremy Lauzon, Jakub Zboril

The Seattle Kraken are not holding their breath about the Bruins’ protection list. They know that regardless of the final decisions they are getting a good player, even with Boston protecting their core. That could be a promising young defenseman like Lauzon or Zboril, a bottom of the lineup role player like Ritchie, Wagner, or Clifton, or maybe even a high-ceiling, low-floor risk in Kase. Seattle could also have plans to offer a godfather deal to one of the Bruins’ impending free agents, with Hall obviously the most intriguing of the bunch, or to use the sheer number of possible expansion losses as a way to goad Boston into making a side deal to select a certain player at a cost (Moore perhaps?). Regardless of the result, the Kraken will get something good from the Bruins.

Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Trade Rumors: Tarasenko, Buchnevich, Schmidt, Predators

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It is well-known by now that St. Louis Blues star Vladimir Tarasenko has requested a trade, but the extent to which he will go to make sure that request is honored may still be a surprise. Unlike other standout players with trade protection who simultaneously demand a trade while holding their team hostage with a limited list of acceptable destinations, Tarasenko is reportedly taking an “anywhere but St. Louis” approach. The Athletic’s Arthur Staple writes that Tarasenko, who has a full No-Trade Clause in his contract, has nevertheless provided the Blues with a considerable list of teams that he would be amenable to ending up with. Per multiple sources, Staple relays that the length of the list is “double-digits at least”. One team that is known to be on Tarasenko’s list of preferred destinations are the New York Islanders, though the salary cap implications would be tricky for such a deal. It is unknown if other teams who have checked in – the Boston Bruins, Edmonton Oilers, New York Rangers, and Washington Capitals – are also on the list, but the odds are in their favor. One way or another, Tarasenko will be dealt, putting an end to an injury saga that was only resolved once Tarasenko went outside the organization to repair his shoulder. He should be fully healthy moving forward, but with some doubt and a hefty contract, there is some concern about what the Blues will recoup in a trade, if anything. Some have speculated that they may need to attach their first-round pick in order to move the pricey veteran, while others believe he will be exposed in the Expansion Draft in hopes that the Seattle Kraken take him for free instead.

  • While it is unclear exactly why, it has become obvious that Pavel Buchnevich’s name is being floated on the rumor mill. The Athletic’s Rick Carpiniello confirms as much, but does not know the source. This could be a case of teams simply making calls to the New York Rangers about Buchnevich following a career year, creating the illusion that he is available for trade whether the team is taking those offers seriously or not. However, there is also a good chance that the Rangers are at least actively listening or even shopping Buchnevich. The 26-year-old winger has improved significantly in each of the past two years since signing his last contract with the Rangers. Now he is a restricted free agent with arbitration rights and the ammunition to command a sizeable pay raise. With more depth on the wing than at center, including top picks Alexis Lafreniere and Kaapo Kakko, New York could choose to save the cap space for improving the center position, especially if Buchnevich can help to accomplish that goal as part of a trade. Carpiniello also notes that the Rangers have a number of young standouts who will require expensive extensions this summer and in the coming years and the team could be hesitant to let Buchnevich’s deal get in the way. Of course, this is all still speculation, but for whatever reason Buchnevich’s name is out there.
  • It was reported last week that the Vancouver Canucks and defenseman Nate Schmidt could be heading for a split this summer after a less than inspiring first season. However, the team has since publicly denied any talks to trading Schmidt. Nevertheless, Daily Faceoff’s Frank Seravalli still debuted Schmidt at No. 12 on his Trade Targets board and believes that there is something to the rumors. Schmidt was not a good fit in Vancouver this season but still has value in the eyes of teams across the league; he appears to want to maintain that value by leaving the Canucks. Vancouver likely does not want to give up leverage by admitting that their is a mutual desire for a move, but could very much use his cap space.
  • The NHL Expansion Draft allows flexibility with protection schemes, offering teams the ability to protect seven forwards and three defensemen or, in the event that there is a fourth defensemen worth more than protecting three additional forwards, the eight-skater approach. However, there is not much a team can do when they want to protect five defenseman (unless they somehow feel they can afford to only protect three forwards.) The Nashville Predators appear to be facing this conundrum. Earlier in the season, the team entertained trading Mattias Ekholm because it was assumed they wanted to protect Roman Josi, Ryan Ellis, and Dante Fabbro and seven forwards in the upcoming Expansion Draft. However, once the team began to improve and Ekholm was not moved before the Trade Deadline, it then became more likely that they would go with eight skaters instead, keeping all four defensemen. The late-season breakout of Alexandre Carrier threw a wrench in those plans though. The 24-year-old Carrier outplayed and ultimately took the job of the 23-old Fabbro and now the Predators do not want to lose either for nothing to the Seattle Kraken. It has previously been reported that Nashville is trying to construct a side deal with Seattle that would see the NHL’s newest team take a player of the Predators’ choosing with an additional cost, rather than having an open selection of all exposed players. However, TSN’s Pierre LeBrun reports that in the even such a deal cannot be reached, the Predators will try to trade one of their top five defenders. LeBrun believes it will be one trade route or the other; Nashville will not protect all five defensemen.

Minor Transactions: 07/13/21

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The NHL offseason exploded into action over the past few days, with a Duncan Keith trade, Pekka Rinne’s retirement and the buyout of Zach Parise and Ryan Suter. While those headlines are certainly attention-grabbing, other leagues are also doing their best to fill out rosters and prepare for the upcoming season. As always, we’ll keep track of any notable minor moves right here:

  • The Rockford IceHogs and Bakersfield Condors completed a trade yesterday, which very well could be connected to the Keith deal. The move sees minor league forward Liam Folkes head to the IceHogs in exchange for future considerations, giving the team a replacement for the outgoing Tim Soderlund. Because Folkes is signed to an AHL contract, he couldn’t be officially included in the NHL trade.
  • The Manitoba Moose have signed forward Todd Burgess to a one-year AHL contract. Now 25, Burgess is actually still on the Ottawa Senators reserve list through August 15, but obviously wasn’t going to sign with the team. A fourth-round selection in 2016, Burgess never could replicate the success he had in the NAHL in college, and scored just 14 points in 25 games this season for Minnesota State.
  • Tory Dello has signed a one-year AHL contract with the Laval Rocket after spending last season with the Grand Rapids Griffins. The 24-year-old defenseman played four years at Notre Dame before joining the Griffins and was once a Clark Cup champion with the Tri-City Storm of the USHL. Undrafted, Dello recorded two points in 19 games for Grand Rapids in 2020-21.

Anaheim Ducks Sign Three Players

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The Anaheim Ducks have signed three minor league players to contract extensions. Sam Carrick has signed a one-year, one-way extension, while Trevor Carrick and Vinni Lettieri have signed one-year two-way contracts. PuckPedia reports that Sam Carrick will earn $750K on his one-way deal, while Trevor Carrick will have a $750K NHL salary and a $325K minor league guarantee.

Even though Sam Carrick is getting a one-way deal, he’s certainly not guaranteed a ton of playing time with the Ducks next season. In 13 games during the 2020-21 campaign he scored six points, but served as captain for the San Diego Gulls. He’s likely to return to that role with San Diego, where he has played his majority of games since arriving in the 2016-17 season. The 29-year-old forward has 11 points in 47 career NHL games.

His younger brother Trevor Carrick meanwhile only arrived in San Diego for this past season, but quickly found a home as one of the team’s most reliable defenders. The 27-year-old recorded 12 points in 39 games while leading the club in penalty minutes with 53. He’ll be back and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him wear an “A” as an alternate captain as he did in Charlotte for several seasons. Over his pro career, he has played just seven NHL games.

Lettieri, 26, scored at an exceptional rate for the Gulls, registering 14 goals and 26 points in just 22 games. He also spent a good amount of time with the NHL club, getting into five games. The former University of Minnesota star has just eight points in 51 career NHL games, but could be used again as an injury replacement in the right circumstances.

All three of the players will be eligible for selection in the upcoming expansion draft, but none of them meet the exposure requirements for the Ducks. These deals are all about securing valuable minor league depth for their AHL affiliate, while giving the team some passable replacements in injury situations.

San Jose Sharks Re-Sign Josef Korenar

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The San Jose Sharks have re-signed goaltender Josef Korenar to a one-year contract, keeping him in North America after making his NHL debut this season. Curtis Pashelka of the Mercury News reports that the two-way contract carries a $750K salary at the NHL level, an $85K salary at the AHL level and a minor league guarantee of $125K. Sharks GM Doug Wilson released a statement explaining the move:

Josef took a big step in his development last season, showing his athleticism and awareness in net while appearing in the NHL for the first time. He also delivered a strong performance in the AHL’s Pacific Division playoffs, leading AHL goaltenders in goals-against average and helped the Barracuda to the semifinals.

Korenar, 23, was an undrafted free agent signing in 2017 and has become an interesting NHL prospect for the Sharks. The Czech goaltender posted an .899 save percentage in ten NHL appearances this season, while also spending time in the AHL and overseas. While he may not be ready to take over the net full-time, he does have an interesting case to be the backup this season, especially if the team doesn’t add another goaltender through free agency. The Sharks still have Martin Jones on the books for now, but the 31-year-old is a prime buyout candidate after three terrible seasons.

Getting Korenar under contract at least keeps him in the organization instead of allowing him to return to Europe, meaning at worst he’ll be with the San Jose Barracuda in 2021-22. Still waiver-exempt, he can come up and down whenever necessary to help the goaltending group at the NHL level while continuing his development by getting starts whenever possible in the AHL.

In the expansion draft later this month, it seems likely that the Sharks protect Korenar over Jones if the latter isn’t bought out. If he is though, the team needed a goalie under contract for 2021-22 to leave exposed in order to meet the requirements–Korenar can now be that goalie.

Free Agent Focus: Philadelphia Flyers

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Free agency is now just a few weeks away and many teams are already looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several prominent players set to hit the open market in late July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well. Things aren’t completely off the rails in Philadelphia after a disappointing season, but there are some big decisions to be made on the direction of the franchise. 

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Nolan Patrick – Can Patrick overcome his injury issues and become a core piece for the Flyers? Some have already labeled the 2017 second-overall pick as a bust and have written him off completely, while others believe with time and patience he could still become a valuable asset. Philadelphia’s front office is going to need to make that decision this summer as Patrick enters restricted free agency once again, this time coming off a brutal performance. Last summer, the young forward was negotiating a deal after missing the entire 2019-20 season due to a migraine issue and ended up signing for his qualifying offer amount. Given that he’s still ineligible for arbitration and scored just nine points in 52 games, it’s hard to see him getting much more than that. If anything, it seems like a change of scenery might benefit both parties, as long as the Flyers received something valuable in return. There’s a lot of work to do for the 22-year-old forward to prove he can still be even a middle-six center at the NHL level, let alone the star he was supposed to be.

D Travis Sanheim – There’s a trend in these RFA cases for the Flyers, as all of them are players that were supposed to be key contributors this season but ended up having down years. Sanheim was supposed to step into a bigger role for the team in his fourth season and build off the success he had in the past. Instead, he recorded just 15 points in 55 games and registered the worst possession stats of his career. That’s not to say Sanheim is playing his way off the team, quite the opposite, as he has established a spot on the second pair, but the breakout that was expected never came. His last deal, a two-year contract in 2019 worth $6.5MM total, was supposed to be a bridge to a big RFA deal this summer. But how big can the Flyers really go for a player that, while valuable, hasn’t improved much over the last two seasons. An interesting option for both sides might even be arbitration, giving Sanheim a one-year deal at a slightly higher number. It would leave him just a year from unrestricted free agency, but also give him a chance to show he still does have some of that top-pairing upside left in him.

G Carter Hart – Speaking of players coming off down years, it’s hard to know just how much money Hart cost himself this season. The 22-year-old goaltender is still the future in Philadelphia, but after posting an .877 save percentage in 27 appearances, just nine of them wins, he’s suddenly a risky investment. If the Flyers try to get a multi-year contract done with the young netminder, it will have to be on a contract that makes sense even if he fails to take back the workhorse role. There’s no way they can invest starter money in Hart after a season like that, and they won’t have to, given he’s not yet eligible for arbitration. Philadelphia could slow play this if they want, and force Hart to accept a short-term deal around his qualifying offer, but they could also try to lock him in for a few years at a depressed price, betting on a rebound. It’s a tough situation for the player side too, not wanting to throw away too much earning potential, but also knowing that his role in the organization could be in jeopardy with another bad season or two.

Other RFAs: F Pascal Laberge, F Connor Bunnaman, F David Kase

Key Unrestricted Free Agents:

F Samuel Morin – It’s tough to watch Morin now, knowing that there was so much potential in that 6’6″ frame when the Flyers selected him 11th overall in 2013. Though his size and physicality were always the focus, the drastically improved skating of Morin was supposed to translate into a true shutdown defender for Philadelphia. Multiple major knee surgeries later and Morin was forced to make the switch to forward, claiming he wanted to be the next Matt Martin, offering a simple game but adding physicality to the lineup every night. It didn’t pan out, and Morin played just 20 games this season, recording a single goal (his NHL first) and 38 hits. A positionless part-time enforcer is not what 11th overall picks usually turn out to be, and now Morin hits Group VI UFA status with no clear future.

G Brian Elliott – Hart was bad and Elliott wasn’t much better this season, posting his second straight year with a save percentage under .900. It’s been a long career for the 36-year-old goaltender and from all accounts, he is beloved in Philadelphia, but the team desperately needs some consistency in net moving forward. There will be many other options for the team to go after this summer, even if the focus is still on Hart getting back to his early performance. If the team comes back with the same duo, it’s hard to expect different results at this point.

Other UFAs: F Andy Andreoff, D Matt Niskanen (retired), D Derrick Pouliot, D Tyler Wotherspoon, D Nate Prosser, D Chris Bigras, G Alex Lyon

Projected Cap Space

With more than $68.4MM committed to 17 players, the Flyers have just over $13MM left to work with this offseason. That could grow substantially if they can convince the Seattle Kraken to take Jakub Voracek or trade him elsewhere, but for now they don’t have a ton of money to work with. Remember, captain Claude Giroux and top center Sean Couturier are both pending unrestricted free agents after this season and will need extensions if the Flyers want to keep them around, meaning any long-term money they spend in free agency will have to be done with careful consideration.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Dominique Ducharme Loses Interim Tag, Signs Extension

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The Montreal Canadiens have officially named Dominique Ducharme the 31st full-time head coach in franchise history. The team has removed the interim tag and signed Ducharme to a three-year contract extension through the 2023-24 season. Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic tweets that the deal is believed to be worth $1.7MM per season. GM Marc Bergevin released a statement on his new coach:

Dominique has managed to set his system in place and establish himself as a head coach in a very unusual season with challenging circumstances. While our team has gone through its fair share of adversity, he has shown a lot of control over the situation as well as showing calm and great leadership. These are important qualities that we look for in a head coach and he fully deserves the chance to lead our team and take it to the next level.

The 48-year-old head coach took over from Claude Julien earlier this season after serving as an assistant since 2018 and ended up taking the Canadiens all the way to the Stanley Cup Finals. Though he missed part of the playoffs due to a positive COVID test, the systems that Ducharme instituted in Montreal carried them throughout the playoffs as a strong defensive team that attacked opportunistically off turnovers. It got them past the North Division-leading Toronto Maple Leafs, swept the Winnipeg Jets, and defeated the hugely favored Vegas Golden Knights, before eventually breaking down against the defending champion Tampa Bay Lightning. With that playoff success, it seemed obvious that Ducharme would be retained as head coach and today’s news makes it official.

Even though he did have all that postseason glory, it’s important to note that the Canadiens did go 15-16 under Ducharme in the regular season. There are countless factors that go into that record, including a tough schedule caused by a COVID shutout, but this isn’t a proven name that Montreal is going with. Still, there are reasons to believe that Ducharme can be a successful NHL head coach right away, starting with his strong history in the QMJHL. He won a league title in 2013, taking home the CHL Coach of the Year trophy for his efforts. He has led Team Canada to a gold medal at the Hlinka-Gretzky tournament and the World Juniors as well, though that 2018 team was loaded with NHL talent including Cale Makar, Robert Thomas, and Carter Hart.

With their coach locked up, the Canadiens can now focus on other offseason negotiations. Phillip Danault, Joel Armia, Corey Perry, Eric Staal, Tomas Tatar, Jon Merrill and Erik Gustafsson are all pending unrestricted free agents, while Artturi Lehkonen and Jesperi Kotkaniemi are both scheduled to become RFAs. There’s plenty of work left to do for Bergevin and his staff, but he won’t have to worry about who is behind the bench moving forward.

Minnesota Wild To Buy Out Zach Parise, Ryan Suter

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In a shocking turn of events, the Minnesota Wild have begun the buyout process for both Zach Parise and Ryan Suter. Because they have no-movement causes, they do not need to go through the unconditional waiver process. Both players are on identical 13-year, $98MM contracts that were signed in 2012; a buyout would cause cap penalties of the following for each player:

  • 2021-22: $2,371,794
  • 2022-23: $6,371,794
  • 2023-24: $7,371,794
  • 2024-25: $7,371,794
  • 2025-26: $833,333
  • 2026-27: $833,333
  • 2027-28: $833,333
  • 2028-29: $833,333

Amazingly, because of the way their contracts were so heavily front-loaded, each player will only receive $6,666,667 in actual salary over the eight years of the buyout. It clears more than $10MM of cap space for the upcoming season, though obviously creates a huge cap penalty in years 2-4 of the buyout.

It’s the end of an era in Minnesota, as Suter and Parise have been the faces of the franchise for nearly a decade. Their signing in 2012 shocked the hockey world, as they decided to go to a relatively new team that had missed the playoffs in eight of its 11 years of existence. When they arrived, things immediately turned positive for Minnesota, reaching the playoffs in each of the next six seasons, but there was very little postseason success. Now, after another disappointing first-round exit, GM Bill Guerin has decided to do what was unthinkable until recently. He released a statement on the move, thanking both players for their contributions:

Zach and Ryan have been an integral part of the Wild’s success over the past nine years and we’ll always be grateful for their many contributions. There were numerous factors that entered into the difficult decision to buy out their contracts, but primarily these moves are a continuation of the transformation of our roster aimed at the eventual goal of winning a Stanley Cup. 

Parise, 36, had been pushed almost entirely out of the lineup, dressing only occasionally down the stretch and playing in just four of the team’s seven postseason games. He managed to record three points in those four matches, but had just 18 in his 45 regular season games. His role moving forward was completely unclear, but now he’ll at least get the chance to test the open market. The New York Islanders and GM Lou Lamoriello had been interested in the past, but it remains to be seen whether they’ll pursue the veteran forward this time around.

For Suter, who also turned 36 in January, things are a little different. Though his offensive numbers fell off a cliff this season, recording just 19 points in 56 games, he is still a valuable top-four defenseman that likely could have helped the Wild next season. The key to both buyouts really is that it will open two protection slots in the upcoming expansion draft, which the Wild can use to block Seattle from some of their younger, more valuable assets. Suter and Parise each held a no-movement clause that would have forced Minnesota to protect them in the draft, meaning if this buyout was going to happen, it needed to be done before the protection lists are submitted later this week.

Looking at a cap penalty of nearly $15MM is daunting, but it is important to remember that their regular cap hits would have combined for more than that anyway. If the Wild believe that the two will not be regular contributors in two years, this actually frees up a (small) amount in those seasons as well. Had they waited another year, for instance, there would have been very little cap savings at all, meaning it was a now-or-never situation. The benefit here is opening up more than $10MM (and two expansion slots) at a time when the Wild are looking at key negotiations with Kirill Kaprizov and Kevin Fiala. The team has also been loosely connected to players like Jack Eichel and Sam Reinhart, who could help fill out the center ice position that has been deemed so important to Kaprizov’s future with the team.

That does not mean it’s the end for Parise and Suter, who will enter the free agent market as attractive assets now that they can be had for a much lower cost. Just yesterday, the Edmonton Oilers for instance traded for Duncan Keith, who will likely cost more than Suter receives on the open market. Though he doesn’t have the kind of playoff success that Keith does, there’s certainly going to be a market for the 36-year-old defenseman. Parise’s might be a bit smaller, but remember he is still only a year removed from a 25-goal campaign and has more than 800 points in his NHL career. For a contender looking to add depth to the lineup for a reasonable price, there are worse gambles to make.

Michael Russo of The Athletic broke the news on Twitter.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Erik Johnson Waives No-Movement Clause For Expansion Draft

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The Colorado Avalanche already may end up losing a good young defenseman, but it would have been even worse if they were forced to protect Erik Johnson. According to Peter Baugh of The Athletic, the veteran has officially waived his no-movement clause and will not require protection.

That does not mean that Johnson is exempt from selection, rather the opposite, but his high price tag of $6MM per season and his unclear injury situation will likely keep him away from Seattle. More specifically, the Avalanche will still likely have to expose a defenseman like Ryan Graves, who seems to be a much more appetizing selection given his relative youth and strong playoff performance. There is obviously still time to change things in order to protect Graves as well, but at least when it comes to expansion, the team won’t have to worry about Johnson’s NMC any longer.

Johnson, 33, played just four games this season and was held out most of the year with concussion symptoms. He was back skating with the team in the playoffs but never played, and it is now unclear where his future lies. If he’s unable to play again next season, that $6MM cap hit could be moved to long-term injured reserve, giving the Avalanche quite a bit more flexibility. There is also the possibility of a buyout, but the Avalanche would need to show that Johnson is healthy enough to continue playing, as injured players are ineligible.

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