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Maple Leafs Likely To Have Greater Cap Issues Due To Cononavirus

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The Toronto Maple Leafs knew they would have some issues with their cap for many years in the future when they signed John Tavares to a seven-year, $77MM ($11MM AAV) contract and then locked up their three future star forwards (Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and William Nylander) to a combined $29.5MM per season.

General manager Kyle Dubas was already hard-pressed last year when he was forced to send a first-round pick to Carolina to get rid of Patrick Marleau’s final year of his contract. The team also sent off popular center Nazem Kadri to Colorado in hopes of adding some much-needed defense. The team already knew it was going to have to make some tough decisions this offseason even with estimates that the salary cap could increase from $81.5 to anywhere from $84-88.2MM. However, the Maple Leafs’ cap situation may have gotten worse, according to Terry Koshan of the Toronto Sun, who writes that with the financial impact that is expected to hit the NHL, that salary cap could flatline and remain at $81.5MM next season.

If that’s the case, then the Toronto Maple Leafs plans may require some major changes as they currently have $77MM committed to just 17 players with a number of restricted free agents they must deal with, including Ilya Mikheyev, Travis Dermott, Denis Malgin and Frederik Gauthier. Both Mikheyev and Dermott each should get significant raises, while the team will want to being back Gauthier. Malgin is a different question. On the unrestricted free agent market, the team was likely going to let Tyson Barrie and Cody Ceci walk anyway, there would be no room to keep either one if they wanted to bring one back. The team must also find some room for Jason Spezza and Kyle Clifford, who have become valued veterans.

With so much salary, the scribe believes that Dubas will guaranteed be forced to trade at least one of their younger top-six forwards, including Kasperi Kapanen ($3.2MM AAV), Andreas Johnsson ($3.4MM) or Alexander Kerfoot ($3.5MM), each of which make more a significant amount of money and likely could bring back a significant package of cheap roster players.

Of course, much of that is dependent on what happens in the next few weeks/months, but the more time that passes is likely worse in Toronto. Throw in the fact that the team must also deal with Frederik Andersen’s contract in two years and they have even more trouble ahead.

Edmonton Oilers Sign Raphael Lavoie To Entry-Level Deal

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The Edmonton Oilers announced they have signed forward Raphael Lavoie to a three-year, entry-level contract. The 19-year-old, who was the team’s second-round pick in 2019, should give the Oilers another solid prospect for the future. The deal with a $70K AHL salary breaks down as follows:

2020-21: $700K salary, $92.5K signing bonus, $133K GP bonus
2021-22: $800K salary, $92.5K signing bonus, $33K GP bonus
2022-23: $833K salary, $92.5K signing bonus

There were scouts who thought that Lavoie could easily go late in the first round before last year’s draft. The 6-foot-4 winger had shown flashes of brilliance in his draft year playing for the Halifax Mooseheads in the QMJHL, but inconsistent play is what held him back to the second round even though Lavoie dominated in last year’s playoffs where he scored 20 goals and 32 points in 23 games.

Regardless, he returned to Halifax this season after going in the second round, scoring 18 goals and 44 points in 30 games before joining Team Canada for the World Junior Championships in December where he had two assists in seven games in a limited role, but helping his team capture a gold medal. Halifax then traded him to the Chicoutimi Sagueneens where he has tallied 20 goals and 38 points in 25 games with them.

Considering that Lavoie will be turning 20 in September, it’s likely that Lavoie will turn pro and join the Bakersfield Condors of the AHL next season in hopes of taking his career to the next level. The Oilers hope that Lavoie can fast track to the NHL sooner than later as Edmonton is always on the lookout for top-six wingers with speed who can help complement Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. If Lavoie can put it all together in the AHL in the next couple of years, he could be a key part to their future.

Islanders Notes: Sorokin, Barzal, Injuries, Belmont Arena

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While there has been positive more than a month ago, many New York Islanders fans have been excited about the team potentially signing top goalie prospect Ilya Sorokin out of the KHL this offseason. However, with the worldwide issues of COVID-19 and little information since, NHL.com released an interview with general manager Lou Lamoriello in which the GM reiterates that the team expects Sorokin to sign a contract for next season.

The 24-year-old goaltender has dominated the KHL the last few years and is considered the best goaltender outside the NHL. He finished the 2019-20 season with a 1.50 GAA and a .935 save percentage in 40 appearances for CSKA Moscow. In the currently suspended playoffs, Sorokin has won all four of his matchups, allowing just three goals so far, with a 0.73 GAA and a .966 save percentage. Sorokin’s contract expires on April 30th, although with the coronavirus suspending play, that date could be pushed back if the KHL intends to continue their playoffs at some point.

  • Another issue that Lamoriello settled is the future contract of young star Mathew Barzal. The 22-year-old will be hitting restricted free agency this summer and the Islanders have made it clear that they intend to lock him up to a long-term deal, there are plenty of concerns that teams may attempt to raid the Islanders’ team by attempting to sign the young centerman to an offer sheet. However, Lamoriello made it clear in that interview, that the team intends to lock him up before free agency arrives and will match any offer sheet. “It is our intention to not allow it to get to that point, but should that happen, the answer is yes,” said Lamoriello. While Barzal’s numbers haven’t been close to what it was in his rookie campaign when he tallied 82 points due to head coach Barry Trotz’s defensive-first system, Barzal was looking to take a step forward this year, already having 19 goals and 60 points in 68 games.
  • The GM also noted that defenseman Johnny Boychuk and fourth-liner Casey Cizikas are both expected to be ready whenever the season resumes. Both were tough losses that affected the teams’ most recent run. Boychuk went down on Mar. 3 when he took a skate to the eye and had 90 stitches. Cizikas has been out since Feb. 11 with a leg injury. Lamoriello also added that defenseman Adam Pelech is expected to be ready for training camp. The defenseman was signaled as lost for the season after sustaining an Achilles injury on Jan. 3.
  • Lamoriello also adds that the Belmont Park Arena, the Islanders’ future home, is still on target to be completed for the 2021-22 season. The team is currently playing in two different stadiums, including the Barclays Center and Nassau Coliseum. The team broke ground back in September of 2019.

Stretch Run Storylines: Winnipeg Jets

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As things stand, the NHL is planning to have games resume at some point over the coming weeks.  Assuming the regular season continues, there will be plenty of things to watch for over the stretch run.  Over the coming weeks, PHR will examine the top stretch run storylines for each team.  We continue our look at the Central Division with Winnipeg.

It has been a tough year for the Jets.  They lost several key members of their back end over the summer and have been hit hard by the injury bug throughout the season.  Despite that, a hot stretch of games just before the suspension of play got them back into the playoff picture.  Will their back end be able to hold up the rest of the way?  That’s one of Winnipeg’s key storylines down the stretch.

Defensive Questions

Losing Jacob Trouba to trade, Tyler Myers and Ben Chiarot as free agents, and Dustin Byfuglien from the calamitous mess that is his situation is tough for anyone.  There’s no improving your back end when you lose that many key players at once, even with landing Neal Pionk in the Trouba trade.

Pionk and Josh Morrissey lead Winnipeg’s defense corps that could best be described as patchwork.  Of the ten rearguards on their roster before the roster freeze kicked in, two are waiver claims and another was a non-tendered RFA last summer.  Two others are just beginning their NHL careers and another was a waiver claim in another organization last year and is best served as a seventh or eighth defender.  Dylan DeMelo was a shrewd addition by GM Kevin Cheveldayoff a little before the trade deadline but in a perfect world, he’s on the third pairing, not averaging over 21 minutes a night.

Is it a terrible group?  No.  But when compared to the other teams that they’re battling with for a playoff spot, it’s a definite downgrade.  This patchwork back end has held up quite well given the circumstances.  But as the pressure mounts, can they hold up or will the cracks start to become more evident?

And if we’re throwing out questions, how about some with Byfuglien.  While he was ruled out for the season before the trade deadline, could he be medically cleared to return if the break is long enough?  Would he even want to return to Winnipeg?  It’s a longshot but he’d certainly give them a boost if he came back.

Hellebuyck Holding Up

Quick trivia question – who leads the league in shots faced this season?  The answer is Connor Hellebuyck who also is tied for the NHL lead in games played with Montreal’s Carey Price.  A year ago, Laurent Brossoit was one of the top backups in the league and was pushing for more playoff time.  This season, he has been well below average, even for second stringers.  As a result, Hellebuyck has had to carry a huge workload.

This is where the shutdown could help the Jets.  With the extended break, he should be fresh for the stretch run.  However, it’s also quite possible (if not probable) that there will be a lot of back-to-backs if the regular season resumes to get as many games in as they can before the playoffs.  They may need Hellebuyck to play both ends of those given Brossoit’s struggles this season as with being a bubble team, they can’t afford to risk it.

So far this season, Hellebuyck has only played both ends of a back-to-back just once and only made one start in that situation in 2018-19 (and didn’t make it through the game).  Suffice it to say, he’s going to be in some uncharted waters if the regular season resumes.

Scoring Race

There will likely be a new scoring champion in Winnipeg after Blake Wheeler had led the Jets in each of the past two seasons.  But who that will be is something to watch for.

Winger Kyle Connor has already established new career highs in goals (38), assists (35), and points (73), eclipsing the point per game mark for the first time in his young career.  Meanwhile, center Mark Scheifele was on pace for new career bests in assists and points before the shutdown and he’s also at 73.  (Wheeler is still technically in the mix at 65 but would need quite the productive stretch run to contend for his third straight scoring title.)

Connor’s surge makes Winnipeg’s decision to sign him to a seven-year, $50MM contract partway through training camp look a lot better.  With only two full seasons under his belt before this one, that type of commitment certainly carried some risk.  Meanwhile, Scheifele continues to be one of the top value deals in the league with a $6.125MM AAV through the 2023-24 campaign.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

A Second Senators Player Tests Positive For COVID-19

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For the second time this week, the Senators have announced that one of their players has tested positive for the coronavirus (COVID-19).  The announcement did not name the player but noted that he took part in their recent California road trip through San Jose, Anaheim, and Los Angeles.

A total of 52 people were on that trip including players, coaches, support staff, and broadcasters.  Of those, 44 are currently showing no symptoms.  On top of the two players that have tested positive, there are six other people that have been tested between Wednesday and Friday after showing symptoms and the team is waiting for the results.

At the time, these are the only two known NHL players that have tested positive for the virus.  The Kings and Ducks announced earlier in the week that no one was exhibiting symptoms just yet while the Sharks had a part-time SAP Center employee test positive.

Everyone that was on that trip was told to go into self-isolation on March 13th and the announcement indicated that those people continue to be quarantined.

West Notes: Blackhawks, Markstrom, Sveningsson

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While this season has been a disappointing one for Chicago, it doesn’t appear as if any front office changes are on the horizon.  Team chairman Rocky Wirtz told Scott Powers of The Athletic (subscription required) that team president John McDonough, GM Stan Bowman, and head coach Jeremy Colliton are all expected to return for next season.  The Blackhawks currently sit in the basement of the Central Division and barring a significant expansion of the playoff pool, they’ll miss the postseason for the third straight year.  Powers notes that Bowman’s last announced contract extension took him through 2020-21 so if there hasn’t been anything signed since then, he’ll be entering the final year of his deal.  McDonough wouldn’t comment on whether or not a new contract for him is already in place.

More from the Western Conference:

  • Canucks goaltender Jacob Markstrom has fully recovered from his knee injury, GM Jim Benning acknowledged in an appearance on Sportsnet 650 (audio link). With Vancouver on the outside looking in at a Wild Card spot (tied with Nashville but they hold the tiebreaker), that’s good news for any potential stretch run.  Benning also reiterated his desire to get the pending UFA signed to a contract extension but with next year’s salary cap in question given everything that has happened these last few weeks, it’s unlikely that there will be much in the way of negotiations in the next little while.
  • Flames prospect Filip Sveningsson confirmed to Simon Holm Stalhand of Hockey Sverige that has been released from his SHL team in Oskarshamn. The winger was a seventh-round pick back in 2017 after a strong showing offensively at the junior level.  However, that has yet to carry over to the pros as injuries and general ineffectiveness limited him to just two goals and two assists in 29 SHL games this season.  Sveningsson indicated that some other teams in Sweden have shown interest but if Calgary has any plans on signing him (they have until June of 2021 to do so), this would be a good opportunity to bring him over to North America.

Alex Newhook Expected To Return To Boston College For Sophomore Year

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In recent years, there have been some ‘one and done’ college players; Kings prospect Alex Turcotte recently went that route after turning pro earlier this month.  However, it doesn’t appear as if Avalanche prospect Alex Newhook is going to be going that route.  The center told Ryan S. Clark of The Athletic (subscription required) that he expects to remain at Boston College to play in his sophomore year next season.

The 16th overall pick back in June had quite the freshman year, collecting 19 goals and 23 assists in 34 games to sit tied for seventh in NCAA scoring.  Among first-year players, he was second overall.  Not surprisingly, he was recently named the Hockey East Rookie of the Year for his efforts.

That’s a very strong start to his college career which had some wondering if it might be time for him to turn pro.  However, Colorado already has strong depth down the middle which wouldn’t bode well from a potential playing time perspective.  While Newhook would be eligible to play in the AHL even though he’s only 19, staying in school for one more year is probably the better route from a development perspective.  Doing so would give him the opportunity to compete for the NCAA title next season, something the Eagles may have had a shot of contending for after being ranked in the top five before the playoffs were cancelled.

IIHF Officially Cancels Men’s World Hockey Championship

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It’s a decision that has been expected for a while and is now official.  The IIHF announced that they have cancelled the upcoming Men’s World Hockey Championship that was slated to take place in Switzerland in May due to the ongoing coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.  IIHF President Rene Fasel released the following statement:

This is a harsh reality to face for the international ice hockey family, but one that we must accept.  The coronavirus is a global problem and requires major efforts by government bodies to combat its spread. The IIHF must do all it can to support this fight. We have to set sport aside for now and support both the government bodies and the ice hockey family.

The annual tournament featured numerous NHL players whose teams were eliminated from the playoffs early as well as a mixture of the some of the top international talents around the world that haven’t made it to the NHL yet.  16 countries had been slated to participate including Belarus and Kazakhstan who were promoted from Division 1-A following the 2019 event.

It may be a while before Switzerland gets another opportunity to host the tournament as host cities for the Worlds have already been named through 2025.

Extension Notes: Donovan, Svedberg, Leksands

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While Matt Donovan would undoubtedly rather remain under contract with the Nashville Predators, he will settle for staying in familiar territory and continuing his relationship with the organization. The Predators’ AHL affiliate, the Milwaukee Admirals, announced today that they had signed Donovan to a two-year AHL contract, an extension of sorts for the veteran defenseman. While Donovan only played in two games with Nashville last season and zero this season, he has been crucial piece for Milwaukee in both campaigns. An experienced two-way defenseman who has spent time in the New York Islanders organization as well as in Sweden and in the NCAA with the University of Denver, Donovan is known as a possession defenseman who can jump up into the play but can also be relied upon for physicality and defensive awareness. A top-pair defenseman for the Admirals, Donovan will continue to play a major role for the team while he sets his personal sights on playing his way back onto an NHL contract.

  • A move that flew under the radar recently – as fans hold out hope for a continued NHL season and are not thinking ahead to free agency just yet – is goaltender Niklas Svedberg resigning in Sweden. The 30-year-old netminder, and former member of the Boston Bruins and Minnesota Wild, was one of the best goalies in the SHL this season. Yet, despite what could be a weak goalie market this summer, Svedberg has opted to re-up with Djurgardens IF rather than test the NHL waters again. The team announced a new two-year deal with Svedberg, retaining one of their most valuable assets for a while longer. Svedberg would be 33 before he could have the chance to suit up once again in North America, which could mean that his NHL days are over. The talented keeper never quite found the right time to break into a consistent NHL role, despite strong numbers at both the NHL and AHL level – including an AHL All-Star nod in 2012-13 – as well as some stellar seasons in the KHL and SHL. It seems the veteran goalie is simply content to stay in his native country and continue to be one of Sweden’s best at his position.
  • Staying in Sweden, Leksands IF has a lot to look forward to as they have retained two young standouts in Alexander Lundqvist and Nils Aman. The team announced two-year contract extensions with both exciting young pieces, who each made their SHL debut this season. Lundqvist, 19, is the nephew of Hall of Fame defenseman Nicklas Lidstrom and a budding puck-moving defenseman in his own right. Undrafted in 2019, Lundqvist will be up for grabs again this year and should draw more attention following a 24-point campaign in the SuperElit and an eight-game stint in the SHL. At 6’2”, 183 lbs. and lauded skating ability, Lundqvist projects as a solid two-way defenseman and should step into a regular SHL role next year. Aman, 20, has a similar stature to Lundqvist but plays up front and has the numbers to prove it. Aman posted 47 points in 30 games in the SuperElit and made the most of his own eight-game stint in the SHL with three points. Aman looks ready for the top level and should slot into a consistent role next year as well. A youth movement could be coming to Leksands, who need all the help they can get after only missing the relegation game due to the league’s recent cancellation.

College Notes: Dhooghe, Rathbone, Flames, UFA’s

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When college hockey returns next season, standout defenseman Sean Dhooghe will be donning a different jersey. Dhooghe, 21, announced on his personal Twitter account this afternoon that he will be leaving the University of Wisconsin to play his fourth and final NCAA season with Arizona State University. While this may seem like a downgrade at first glance, Wisconsin was more bark than bite this season, falling incredibly short of their preseason title as national championship contenders. Additionally, the program has lost two of its best players to the NHL in recent weeks in the L.A. Kings’ Alex Turcotte and the New York Rangers’ K’Andre Miller. Meanwile, Arizona State again exceeded expectations this season and was likely to qualify for the NCAA tournament for a second year in a row, despite being the most recent addition to Division I college hockey. Dhooghe will have a better chance to stand out and to shake off a down year by his standards by joining an ASU roster that is not as deep as Wisconsin on paper, but he also may have better odds at NCAA postseason glory as well.

Dhooghe, who jumped straight from the U.S. National Team Development Program to the college ranks, is a skilled forward who has been a fixture for the U.S. at international camps and events over the years. He plays a smart game with great vision and skating and excels in space. Why then might you not have heard of him? Dhooghe makes “undersized” look like an understatement, standing at 5’3” and 150 lbs. His size wasn’t a factor in junior and he hasn’t let it affect his game at the college level too much, but it is fair to have serious doubts about his pro potential. He hopes to silence his critics with a big first – and last – season at Arizona State next year, which he hopes is followed up by a pro contract.

  • Harvard University is still waiting to see if they will have a top defenseman back next season, while on the other side the Vancouver Canucks are waiting to see if they could have yet another elite rookie on the back end next season. Blue liner Jack Rathbone, a 2017 fourth-round selection, told TSN 1040 radio in Vancouver today that with everything going on right now, he and his family will continue to take some time to make a decision. There is no hurry for the talented defender to make a call and he wants to be sure to make the right one. A superstar at the prep school level with Dexter, Rathbone still was not expected to take the giant steps that he has at Harvard in just two seasons, developing into one of the stronger all-around defenseman in all of college hockey. However, he still has another two years left of NCAA eligibility and may want to wait for a more secure role in the NHL with Vancouver. With plenty of other talented prospects on the roster, Harvard hopes that Rathbone returns to lead the team to the NCAA Tournament next year.
  • The Calgary Flames are using their time off wisely, making a major splash today by signing arguably the top two UFA college defenders on the market: Minnesota State’s Connor Mackey and North Dakota’s Colton Poolman. Yet, they still aren’t done. Sportsnet’s Pat Steinberg reports that the team is still “working hard” on college free agent forward. While Calgary is not exactly weak in the pipeline, they somehow have become a top landing spot for NCAA talent this spring.
  • If the Flames really want to cash in on college free agency, that unnamed forward prospect that they are negotiating with would be Jordan Kawaguchi, North Dakota teammate of Poolman and a top candidate for the Hobey Baker Award. Kawaguchi, while only a junior, is expected by many to forego his senior season and sign in the NHL. After posting 45 points in 33 games to finish second in the NCAA scoring race and lead one of the best team’s in the nation, Kawaguchi doesn’t have much left to prove at the college level. While somewhat small, the cousin of Devin Setoguchi plays a similarly skilled and instinctual offensive game. Whether it be Calgary of another team, whoever lands Kawaguchi will land an intriguing prospect with a high ceiling. Joining Kawaguchi on the list of undrafted underclassmen worth watching on the open market are Minnesota State goalie Dryden McKay, the NCAA’s top keeper this season, and UMass forward Mitchell Chaffee, who is coming off another point-per-game season and has all the making of an effective pro.

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