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Archives for March 2020

Five Key Stories: 3/16/20 – 3/22/20

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While there was no hockey being played this past week, there were still some newsworthy events over the past seven days which are highlighted in our key stories.

Roster Freeze: Although players can sign contracts for next season, free agents can’t sign deals for the 2019-20 campaign.  That’s because the NHL has put a roster freeze in place, one that will presumably be in place until games are closer to resuming if things get to that point.  A total of 16 players were assigned to the minors including Anaheim’s Kiefer Sherwood who was the only one to clear waivers.  Winnipeg was the only team to recall a player as Mark Letestu was brought back from his conditioning stint with AHL Manitoba without ever actually getting into a game.

Testing Positive: It was only a matter of time before an NHL player tested positive for the COVID-19 virus and that has come to fruition as the Senators announced that one of their players has the virus but did not identify who had it.  As it turns out, they had a second player test positive over the weekend.  Prior to the shutdown, Ottawa was on the road in California, one of the states that have been hardest by the pandemic.  In their second announcement, it was noted that six other members of the organization (not necessarily players) were also exhibiting symptoms and that they were waiting for testing results.

Thornton Hoping To Play Next Season: After he wasn’t dealt at the trade deadline, Sharks center Joe Thornton expressed some disappointment that he wouldn’t be able to get another shot at a Stanley Cup title.  Perhaps with that in mind, he indicated that his intention is to continue playing into next season which would be his 23rd in the league.  The 41-year-old has seen his production taper off considerably this year with seven goals and 31 points in 71 games, numbers that are well below his career averages.  He has shown a willingness to take cheaper deals lately and is making $2MM this season but he may have to take another pay cut to get a look next year with San Jose or another team.

Hobey Baker Finalists: The list of Hobey Baker candidates has been dropped from 78 midseason nominees to a group of ten finalists, headlined by Vegas prospect Jack Dugan who led the NCAA in scoring.  There are three players in that group that haven’t been drafted or signed by an NHL team – centers Jason Cotton and Jordan Kawaguchi plus goaltender Dryden McKay.  This group of ten players will be whittled down to three by a selection committee plus a fan vote with voting set to end on March 29th.

World Championship Cancelled: It was a move that had been expected for quite some time but has now been made official – the IIHF has cancelled the 2020 Men’s World Hockey Championship.  The tournament was slated to run in Switzerland in May but given all of the uncertainty and travel restrictions with the current pandemic, it was unrealistic to think that it could have been played as scheduled.  The 2021 event is slated to take place in Belarus and Latvia.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

PHR Originals: 3/16/20 – 3/22/20

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Here’s a rundown of the original content at PHR over the past seven days.

Our tour around the Central Division’s storylines to watch for continued with a look at four more teams:

Colorado: The Avalanche will be welcoming back several key players which is a huge boost for them as they try to catch St. Louis for the top spot in the Western Conference.  However, their most interesting storyline may be their goaltending situation.  I looked at the numbers for the now-healthy Philipp Grubauer and backup Pavel Francouz and there isn’t really a true contender for the job.  Teams rarely platoon in the playoffs but this is a team where that could change.

Dallas: The Stars have basically been at the top end of the playoff bubble teams for most of the season.  I broke down just how bad their offense has been but on the optimistic side, a return to form for their top veteran forwards could really give them a boost.  The future of Rick Bowness behind the bench will likely be dependent on how they fare down the stretch and in the postseason so there’s a lot riding on whatever may be left of 2019-20.

Nashville: It has been a bumpy season for the Predators who have been one of the bigger underachievers relative to early expectations.  As Holger noted, their top scorers haven’t got the job done while they also have had to deal with inconsistent goaltending from Juuse Saros and Pekka Rinne.  Will the break rejuvenate Rinne to help take some of the pressure off of Saros and resolidify that position?  That could very well make or break their postseason hopes.

Winnipeg: Their situation largely breaks down to inside their blue line.  I assessed the composition of their defense corps which is certainly a weak link relative to their competitors for a playoff spot.  Connor Hellebuyck has also been relied on a lot this year and with the possibility of a lot of back-to-backs if the NHL tries to make it through the regular season, he’s going to be heavily tested down the stretch.

Flipping the script, if the season doesn’t resume, the NHL awards will become more of a talking point.  One of the more intriguing battles would be for the Calder Trophy with Colorado’s Cale Makar and Vancouver’s Quinn Hughes being the presumptive top two contenders.  Who would win if the vote was today?  Make your choice here.

Even if the NHL does resume, it’s likely that games will be played in empty arenas for a while.  As the NHL is a gate-driven league, that will wreak some havoc on their revenues for the season which could result in a lower salary cap.  That will put many teams in even more cap trouble than they were this year.  Zach proposed a potential solution to that issue or at least something to help by suggesting the league bring back a compliance buyout.  These were sometimes referred to as amnesty buyouts in the past as teams were allowed to buy someone out without any salary cap ramifications.  With a probable drop in revenues, it’s something that the NHL and the NHLPA should be giving serious consideration to between now and the offseason.

Brinson Pasichnuk Choosing Between Two Teams To Sign With

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With Connor Mackey off the board after signing with Calgary on Friday, Arizona State’s Brinson Pasichnuk is arguably the best blueliner left on the market.  After drawing interest from roughly 20 teams, TSN’s Frank Seravalli reports in a recent Insider Trading segment that his list has been narrowed down to two.  However, Pasichnuk appears to be in no rush to sign as Seravalli notes that the defenseman appears to be holding out hope that the NHL will resume its regular season and therefore be able to burn the first year of his entry-level deal right away.

Teams typically have used a willingness to have a player play his first year down the stretch to help secure them but with the uncertainty surrounding the remainder of the season, the league has stepped in and said it won’t accept contracts that begin this season.  That has certainly levelled the playing field but there isn’t much risk on Pasichnuk’s part to wait this out.  As long as his two finalists don’t decide to withdraw, the opportunity to sign with either of them would still be there if the NHL winds up cancelling the rest of the season.

The 22-year-old recently wrapped up his senior year with the Sun Devils and saved his best offensive performance for last, recording 37 points (11-26-37) in 36 games; his assist and point totals were career bests.  He improved his point production each year and while he isn’t the biggest blueliner, he could be an intriguing addition to a team looking for some offense and mobility from the back end.  If Pasichnuk has his way, he’ll be suiting up for that team before the 2019-20 campaign comes to an end, even if he has to wait to do so.

East Notes: Rask, Miller, Lundkvist, Abdelkader

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Boston Bruins goaltender Tuukka Rask has had an amazing season so far. He currently has a 2.12 GAA and a .929 save percentage in 41 appearances this year. The 33-year-old is still young compared to many veteran goaltenders. However, Matt Porter of the Boston Globe writes that Rask recently suggested that his time in the league could be over soon.

“I have one year left in the contract, so we’ll see if I even play,” Rask said about retirement. “We’ll see. Always a possibility. The wear and tear of the travel with two, almost three kids now, makes you think. I love to do it. But it’s tough.”

Rask has one more year left on his current contract that pays him at $7MM per season. The team does have a number of young goaltenders in the system who might be ready to step in by that point, including Daniel Vladar and Jeremy Swayman, but at age 34 and with three young kids at home, Rask said he wouldn’t mind being home.

  • The New York Rangers continue to get richer as they have already added defensive prospect K’Andre Miller to their stable of prospects and are expected to also add defenseman Nils Lundkvist, considered to be one of the top prospects, at some point in the offseason. That should bolster the Rangers’ defense for the future. However, the New York Post’s Larry Brooks writes that the Rangers, however, need to keep some perspective and, considering the fact that the Rangers do have some depth on defense at the moment, need to keep both Miller and Lundqvist in the minors for a full season to properly develop them. Miller signed out of the University of Wisconsin and is likely to start the season in the AHL with the Hartford Wolf Pack despite the fact that many feel he could contribute in New York immediately. Lundkvist, recently ranked as a first-team prospect by The Athletic’s Scott Wheeler (subscription required), has dominated in the SHL and could be loaned back there if the team feels it’s best for his development.
  • The Detroit Free Press’ Helene St. James handed out awards for players on the Detroit Red Wings. Listed among the most disappointing forwards for the team were three players, including Justin Abdelkader, Frans Nielsen and Valtteri Filppula. While she noted that Nielsen and Filppula are bounce-back candidates for next season, the scribe wasn’t as optimistic about Abdelkader’s future. The 33-year-old has seen his game decline over the years, but after zero goals and just three points in 49 games this year with Detroit, St. James believes that Abdelkader’s time in the NHL is over and he is likely to be waived and sent to the AHL for the remainder of his contract, which is three more years at $4.25MM.

Stretch Run Storylines: Nashville Predators

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As things stand, the NHL is planning to have games resume at some point over the coming weeks.  Assuming the regular season continues, there will be plenty of things to watch for over the stretch run.  Over the coming weeks, PHR will examine the top stretch run storylines for each team.  We continue our look at the Central Division with Nashville.

It’s been an inconsistent season for the Nashville Predators, who many felt could challenge for the Central Division title this season. Instead, the team struggled out of the gate, which included a six-game losing streak in November and by early January, general manager David Poile made a decision to let go of long-time coach Peter Laviolette and associate coach Kevin McCarthy after the team had a 19-15-7 record. The team replaced him with recently fired coach John Hynes, who took over and saw the team fight its way back into the final wild card spot, but with continued inconsistent play and several teams breathing down their necks, the team will have to fight to remain in the playoffs.

Questionable Offense

When looking at the team’s top four point producers so far this year, the Nashville Predators have two defenseman in their top four, including defenseman Roman Josi, who leads the team in scoring by far with 65 points this season. That is fine when the team runs its offense through its defense. However, the team’s first line players, however, aren’t having great seasons, which has only made things more challenging.

While there is still plenty of time left, assuming the regular season resumes, Filip Forsberg looks to be heading for a career-low in goals. After never posting lower than 26 goals in his tenure with Nashville, the 25-year-old has just 21 goals and 48 points and still hasn’t been able to take his impressive game to that next level and develop into the star that many people had envisioned.

To make matters worse, Poile went out of his way to upgrade his defense by trading away P.K. Subban in the offseason and using that new-found money to sign center Matt Duchene to give the team a second dominant center. Duchene was expected to play the role of a major point producer after posting a 31-goal, 70-point season last year between Ottawa and Columbus. However, that hasn’t translated in his first year in Nashville as he has just 13 goals and 42 points through 66 games.

If Nashville wants to ensure a trip to the playoffs and maybe even surviving a round or two, the Predators must get more consistent play from their forwards. Even Viktor Arvidsson, who has averaged 30 goals for the three previous years has just 15 goals this season.

Goaltending Issues

A year ago, there were plenty of people that would have referred to the Predators’ goaltending tandem of Pekka Rinne and Juuse Saros as one of the best in the league. However, that hasn’t been the case so far this year.

The 36-year-old Rinne started a new two-year, $10MM deal this season, but few expected a major drop-off after he posted a 2.42 GAA and a .918 save percentage in 56 appearances last year. Unfortunately for the Predators, those numbers took a nosedive. In 36 games this season, Rinne has a 3.17 GAA and a .895 save percentage, which has allowed Saros to take an even bigger role, while also leaving questions on how wise it was to give Rinne two more years.

After a slow start, Saros has been much more successful and has taken on the starting role, having appeared in 16 games since February.  The 27-year-old netminder has a pedestrian 2.70 GAA in 40 appearances (a career high), but also has a .914 save percentage, winning 10 of those appearances.

The team needs Saros to continue his conversion into the team’s everyday starter, but also needs to hope that the break rejuvenates Rinne, who the team needs to bounce back and take some of the responsibility off Saros.

Coaching Transition

Often when teams fire their coaches at midseason, like the Predators did with Laviolette in January, the team hopes the change will inspire the team to take their game up a notch and show they are as talented as management had assumed at the start of the season. So far Hynes has the team at 16-11-1, only a slight improvement, yet while the team has been inconsistent since Hynes has taken over, Nashville has three three-game and three two-game winning streaks this year.

One would have to imagine that the layoff could benefit Hynes more than anything as he has more time to study tape and adjust his coaching techniques and lines to improve the team when they get back on the ice.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Golden Knights Sign Zach Whitecloud To Two-Year Extension

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3:28: Puckpedia reports that the deal is a one-way deal, meaning that he will be paid the $725K regardless of whether he’s in the NHL or AHL next season.

1:11 pm: The Vegas Golden Knights announced they have signed defenseman Zach Whitecloud to a two-year, $1.45MM extension ($725K AAV), giving the team some significant flexibility for next season as the team is expected to be right up against the cap once again. It’s actually a pay cut as Whitecloud was making $925K on his entry-level deal.

“We really have seen in his time with the NHL team that he has developed into a real good NHL defenseman,” said Vegas general manager Kelly McCrimmon. “He has earned the extension. It was a real good free-agent signing by us to be able to put him on our organization.”

Whitecloud, who was heading for restricted free agency this offseason, had taken on a key role with the Golden Knights after the team recalled him on Feb. 1. He has since played in 16 games, offering Vegas a solid defensive-minded third-pairing option and saw his playing time increase over the past five games before the season was suspended. He has one assist in those 16 games, but is averaging 14:19 of ATOI.

The Golden Knights looked to have picked up a big victory in 2018 when they beat out several teams to sign Whitecloud, who was considered to be one of the prize unsigned college free-agents after two impressive seasons at Bemidji State University. Whitecloud has worked on his game with the Chicago Wolves in the AHL where he even showed a little offensive prowess. He had six goals and 28 points that season. Those offensive numbers dipped this year as Chicago has struggled more with just seven points in 35 games. However, it was believed he was ready to take on an NHL role when he swapped places with Vegas rookie defenseman Nicolas Hague.

Whitecloud’s role is likely to increase with both Jonathon Merrill and veteran Deryk Engelland both expected to hit unrestricted free agency. And with salary cap at a premium, the team is likely going to depend more on their young blueliners, including Whitecloud, Hague and Jimmy Schuldt.

IOC To Wait One Month Before Deciding On Olympic Fate

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The International Olympic Committee announced today they are giving themselves a mid-April deadline to decide on the fate of the Olympics which are currently slated to start in Tokyo on July 24 through August 9, according to CBC Sports. There are several options the IOC could choose from, which includes postponing the event due to COVID-19. Sportsnet also reports that cancellation of the event has been ruled out.

That decision could play an instrumental role for the NHL as many believed that the NHL’s decision on how long they could postpone their season might hinge on the Olympic Games. The Athletic’s Pierre LeBrun made it clear a week ago that the NHL had no interest in putting their playoffs up against the Olympics in late July, leaving the league with a tentative drop-dead date. However, if the Olympics opts to postpone their Summer Games, the NHL may be able to bide more time to push the season back.

LeBrun also noted last week that a possible playoff format has been informally proposed that would push the playoffs into August and September, which then wouldn’t interfere for the 2020-21 season. That scenario could become increasingly more likely if the Olympics is postponed.

Snapshots: 2020-21 Season, Trade Conditions, 2020 Draft

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While hockey minds are hard at work trying to come up with a plan to fairly complete the 2019-20 NHL regular season and playoffs, if and when the league returns to action, those strategies cannot interfere with a full 2020-21 season. TSN’s Pierre Lebrun relays word from NHL Deputy Commissioner Bill Daly that the league sees an 82-game season next year as imperative and will not entertain any options that call for a shortened 2020-21 season due to the interference with the 2019-20 campaign. With that said, LeBrun adds that the league will be flexible when it comes to start and end dates and schedule density next year, so long as each team plays 82 games. This could allow for the NHL to adopt an idea that has become popular amongst players during the break: a brief training camp and resumption of regular season play in July, an August and September postseason, an October off-season, and a return to action for a condensed 2020-21 season at some point in November. LeBrun notes that a cancellation of bye weeks and All-Star events next year could help to make a plan like this become reality. The NHL will look at all of their options, assuming there is a possibility that the current season can resume, to make next season run as normally as possible with 82 games being the critical criteria.

  • Should the NHL not be able to complete the 2019-20 season as scheduled, TSN’s Frank Seravalli states that one of biggest things that the NHL will need to clarify is a policy on trade and contract conditions. Those conditions are made with the implication of an 82-game schedule, as well as a full postseason. If those things become an impossibility, is there a fair way to determine whether conditions were met or not? Seravalli uses last summer’s trade between Pacific Division rivals Edmonton and Calgary as an example. In the swap of Milan Lucic for James Neal, a unique condition was added that awards the Flames a 2020 third-round pick if a) Neal scores at least 21 goals and b) Lucic scores ten or more goals fewer than Neal. As it stands, Neal has 19 goals on the season, so the first condition would not be met if the season ended today. However, since the deal was made with the assumption of 82 games, a pro-rated result would see Neal with 23 goals and Lucic with nine, which would result in Calgary landing the pick. The problem, as Seravalli describes, with either strategy is that it does not accurately make up for missed games. With a number of conditional picks and bonus clauses in play, the NHL would face the tough task of how it decides to treat conditions if the regular season and possibly the playoffs as well cannot be completed. Seravalli even mentions compensatory draft picks as a possibility to offset effected trade conditions.
  • One league event that is certain to occur, at some point and in some manner, is the 2020 NHL Draft. The draft is likely to remain in Montreal, but the June 26-27 dates look unlikely and the usual public audience and organized fanfare would be even more improbable if the event does go on as scheduled. In all likelihood, the draft will be postponed, but it will occur all the same. As such, NHL.com has released their updated March rankings of the top 31 players in the class. Although there hasn’t been much new film to study in recent weeks, with junior leagues paused, the college season cancelled, and most European leagues ending as well, the staff at NHL.com has made a notable changes since their last edition earlier this month. Finnish forward Anton Lundell has snuck into the top ten, supplanting Russian goaltender Yaroslav Askarov. Much like eventual Florida Panthers pick Spencer Knight last year, there was heavy top-ten talk about Askarov this season as well, but it has cooled somewhat of late as the depth of elite forward in the class could make it difficult to select a netminder so early.

Poll: If Season Ends Now, Who Should Win Calder Trophy?

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The NHL has every intention in trying to finish out the regular season and have a playoffs to cap off the 2019-20 season. However, with the unknown nature of the quickly changing COVID-19 virus, the season already has been suspended and could be pushed back further and further to avoid players contracting the virus. There has been talk of a drop-dead date as the league doesn’t want the 2019-20 to interfere with the 2020-21 season, which could make the regular season expendable if things begin to extend further and further into the summer. If the regular season ended on March 11, who would walk away as the league’s top rookie?

At midseason, it looked like an obvious choice as Colorado Avalanche defenseman Cale Makar dominated the first half of the season after coming over from UMass-Amherst last season. The 21-year-old had a dominant 11 goals and 37 points in 41 games before the all-star break. While his numbers dipped slightly, Makar has still been impressive in a much more limited second half. He did miss five games with an upper-body injury in late February where Colorado lost three of those five games, yet he still had a goal and 13 points in 16 games since the break. In total, however, Makar currently has 12 goals and 50 points in 57 games, an impressive feat for a rookie blueliner.

While Makar seemed like the inevitable choice early on, Vancouver Canucks rookie defenseman Quinn Hughes came on late to have his own impressive season. Hughes has been a solid addition to a Canucks defense at the end of last season as he came out of the University of Michigan. While he had solid numbers in the first half, with five goals and 34 points in 48 games before the all-star break, he did explode in February with 15 points in 13 games and tallied eight goals and 53 points in 68 points. While Makar might have had a better points-per-game average, it was Hughes who provided the healthier player on the ice.

There are several other candidates who will receive some consideration, including Chicago Blackhawks forward Dominik Kubalik, who scored 30 goals already in just 68 games in his first season in North America. The 24-year-old had spent his entire career overseas in the Czech League and the NLA, but adjusted to North American skating rinks quickly and was a key piece to the Blackhawks’ squad.

Several goalies dominated this season, but New Jersey Devils goalie MacKenzie Blackwood so far has a 22-14-8 record on a struggling Devils team. While he did post a 2.77 GAA, his save percentage suggests that he has been a dominant netminder for the Devils this season at .915.

So, if the regular season ended today, who would be the Calder Trophy winner?

For Pro Hockey app users, click here to vote.

College Notes: Dugan, Zegras, York, Beecher, Ahcan, Chaffee, Richards

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So far when it comes to the college market, the Vegas Golden Knights have been quiet. However, rumors suggested that the Vegas franchise intended to bring aboard Hobey Baker Award finalist Jack Dugan, who wrapped up his sophomore season at Providence College. General manager Kelly McCrimmon confirmed that they will begin negotiations soon with Dugan, who led the NCAA in points this season, according to Las Vegas Review-Journal’s David Schoen.

“We’ll have discussions with his representatives here at an appropriate point,” said McCrimmon. “It hasn’t been pressing because there’s no hockey being played. But those are conversations we’ll have here as we move along.”

Dugan, the team’s fifth-round pick in 2017, has driven up his stock in two years at Providence. He had an impressive rookie season where he posted 10 goals and 39 points in 41 games and followed that up with a much more dominant sophomore campaign, scoring 10 goals and 52 points in just 34 games. The 6-foot-2 winger would likely challenge for a role with the Golden Knights if he signs, although the team could send him to the AHL to further develop his skills.

  • In a Q&A, The Athletic’s Eric Stephens (subscription required) writes that from everyone he’s talked to, it’s expected that top prospect Trevor Zegras will leave Boston University and sign with Anaheim at some point during the offseason. Zegras, the ninth-overall pick in the 2019 draft, dominated at the World Junior Championships in December, leading the United States with nine assists in five games. He had 11 goals and 36 points in 33 games. Considered to be one of the top prospects in hockey, Zegras could conceivably make the Ducks squad next year and challenge for the Calder Trophy.
  • Michigan Daily’s Bailey Johnson reports that University of Michigan head coach Mel Pearson said that while he hasn’t had exit meetings with two of his top players, defenseman Cam York and center John Beecher, he expects both players to return to the Wolverines next season. York, the Philadelphia Flyers first-round pick (14th overall) in 2019, had five goals and 16 points in 30 games for Michigan. Beecher, the Boston Bruins first-round pick (30th overall) had nine goals and 16 points in 31 contests for the Wolverines. Pearson said both players are home and he’s giving them time before discussing the subject with them, but he believes both intend to stay in school.
  • AHL reporter Mark Divver reports that the Boston Bruins are expected to be in the mix for two of the remaining top NCAA free agents in St. Cloud State’s Jack Ahcan and University of Massachusetts-Amherst’s Mitchell Chaffee. Ahcan, a 22-year-old defenseman, wrapped up his senior campaign with seven goals and 25 points. Chaffee, who also is 22, scored 16 goals and 29 points in 30 games last season, his junior year, and is rumored to be courted by the Golden Knights as well. Divver adds that University of Minnesota-Duluth center Justin Richards is also on Boston’s radar.

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