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Arbitration Breakdown: Brock McGinn

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Salary arbitration season is underway, as hearings begin on July 20th and extend through August 4th. While arbitration awards are very infrequent, with most cases settling beforehand, occasionally a binding decision is handed down by the arbitrator. What goes on behind closed doors before that point? The players, aided by their representation and the NHLPA, and their respective teams, aided by a select group of lawyers, each file at a certain salary over a one- or two-year term. The arbitrator may decide on any salary at or between those two points, based on the arguments in each sides’ written brief and oral presentation. While both sides will have themes to base their arguments on, rather than debate only the merits of the player, the bulk of the conversation in an arbitration hearing instead centers around comparable players. Each side will use a tailored group of statistical ranges, both career and platform year numbers, to show how the player compares to similar recent arbitration-eligible players. All statistics are available to use, but their persuasiveness is the key. The player side will look to show that the player is superior to a group of players at a salary lower than their filing number, while the team side will look to show that player is inferior to a group of players above their filing number. Whoever makes the most convincing argument will land the favorable decision.

Brock McGinn of the Carolina Hurricanes was the first arbitration filing to become public this off-season and fittingly landed an early hearing date. Barring a last-minute settlement, in less than 24 hours he will also be the first player to go through the arbitration process this summer. Here is a closer look at his case:

The Case of Brock McGinn

Career Statistics: 240 games played, 36 goals, 40 assists, 76 points, -27 rating
Platform Statistics: 82 games played, 10 goals, 16 assists, 26 points, +10 rating

Filing Numbers: McGinn – One year, $2.7MM, Hurricanes – One year, $1.75MM (midpoint: $2.225MM)

Player Side

Themes:

  • Regular Contributor: played in all 82 games in platform season, 162 of last 164; top-nine Hurricanes forward in ATOI, points, and shots in platform season
  • Key Defensive Player: led Hurricanes forwards in shorthanded ATOI; among top-four Hurricanes forwards in plus/minus, hits, blocked shots, and takeaways

Potential Comparable Players:

Scott Laughton (2019)
Career Statistics: 272 games played, 31 goals, 48 assists, 79 points, -24 rating
Platform Statistics: 82 games played, 12 goals, 20 assists, 32 points, -11 rating
Salary: $2.3MM

  • Player’s argument: better career points per game, better career total goals, better platform plus/minus
  • Team’s counter: Laughton had better platform season, Laughton is better defensive player, Laughton’s salary reflects a premium for center position

Zack Kassian (2017)
Career Statistics: 313 games played, 45 goals, 53 assists, 98 points, -21 rating
Platform Statistics: 79 games played, 7 goals, 17 assists, 24 points, +4 rating
Salary: $1.95MM

  • Player’s argument: better platform, higher points per game career, more consistent goal scorer, better defensive numbers
  • Team’s counter: similar points per game career, Kassian had close to full season more experience

Team Side

Themes:

  • Fourth-line forward: outside top-nine Hurricanes forwards in even strength ATOI, no role on the power play
  • Not a reliable goal scorer: low shooting percentage (8.1% platform, 9.4% career), tied for 12th among Hurricanes forwards in goals per game; no game-winning goals or overtime goals in regular season
  • Regression: goals, points, shooting percentage, ATOI all down in platform season from year prior

Potential Comparable Players:

Joel Armia (2019)
Career Statistics: 237 games, 39 goals, 42 assists, 81 points, -3 rating
Platform Statistics: 57 games, 13 goals, 10 assists, 23 points, even rating
Salary: $2.6MM

  • Team’s argument: Armia has better career points per game, Armia has far better platform, similar defensive numbers
  • Player’s counter: better career-high goals, better physical game

Artturi Lehkonen (2019)
Career Statistics: 221 games, 41 goals, 39 assists, 80 points, -2 rating
Platform Statistics: 82 games, 11 goals, 20 assists, 31 points, +10 rating
Salary: $2.4MM

  • Team’s argument: Lehkonen has better career and platform points per game, Lehkonen has better career and platform goals, Lehkonen has more consistent offensive numbers, similarly low shooting percentage – Lehkonen more involved offensively, similar defensive numbers
  • Player’s counter: different styles of player – Lehkonen far less physical, Lehkonen’s career and platform numbers inflated by substantially more ice time

Prediction

This is not an exhaustive list of possible comparable players, but based on the player side and team side filing numbers and the resulting midpoint, the Carolina Hurricanes have a stronger case with the comparable players available than does Brock McGinn. Expect a potential decision to be in the $2-2.2MM range.

Edmonton Oilers Trade Milan Lucic To Calgary Flames

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7:45pm: Sportsnet’s Mark Spector reports that there are two conditions on the third-round draft pick sent to Calgary and, in a move not before seen in the NHL, one has to do with the traded players’ production relative to one another. The first condition is that Neal must score 21 goals in 2019-20. The second condition is that those 21+ goals must also be 10 goal or more above Lucic’s goal total on the year. According to Spector, the conditions do not cause a shift in the round of the pick; instead, if those conditions are not met, the Oilers do not owe the Flames any pick at all.

7:00pm: The deal is now official, including the additional pieces and salary retention on Edmonton’s side. In addition to Lucic, the Flames announced that they have also acquired a conditional 2020 third-round pick as well, though terms of the condition were not disclosed. Additionally, the Oilers will retain 12.5%, or $750K, of Lucic’s $6MM cap hit. In other words, Calgary will pay Lucic $5.25MM against the cap for the next four years, while Edmonton will pay a total of $6.5MM against the cap for Neal and Lucic’s retained salary, also for four more years.

2:30pm: The Edmonton Oilers and Calgary Flames have decided to swap a pair of underperforming forwards. According to Nick Kypreos of Sportsnet the Oilers will send Milan Lucic to their provincial rivals in exchange for James Neal after Lucic decided to waive his no-movement clause. Bob Stauffer of 630 CHED and Gene Principe of Sportsnet have heard the same, though neither team has confirmed it at this point. Jason Gregor of TSN reported earlier that Lucic would be willing to waive the clause to go to Calgary. Eric Francis of Sportsnet expects the Oilers to include a conditional draft pick and retain part of Lucic’s salary.

Lucic, 31, has been considered one of the worst contracts in the league since the day he signed it on July 1, 2016. Agreeing to a seven-year, $42MM deal in unrestricted free agency, he was supposed to add some physicality, experience and scoring prowess to an up-and-coming Oilers team led by two young superstars. In the first year of the deal Lucic disappointed but still scored 23 goals and 50 points, helping the Oilers to the playoffs for the first time in a decade. There were red flags even then however, as Lucic was noticeably slowing down and scored more than half his goals on the powerplay. His even-strength production of 25 points was underwhelming and only a signal of things to come.

In 2017-18, things completely fell apart. Lucic recorded just seven even-strength tallies and scored just a single goal in his final 46 games. Last season was even worse, and at this point the former Boston Bruins star is a fourth-liner with a $6MM cap hit. That wasn’t going to cut it in Edmonton where new GM Ken Holland and the Oilers are trying desperately to reshape their roster even without much cap flexibility.

Neal meanwhile hasn’t been much better since signing his own lucrative free agent contract. Signing a five-year, $28.75MM deal on July 2, 2018, Neal was supposed to be the consistent goal scoring threat to line up alongside young forwards like Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan. He had just completed his tenth consecutive 20+ goal season and been to consecutive Stanley Cup Finals with the Nashville Predators and Vegas Golden Knights. His offense was rarely contingent on powerplay time and the 30-year old had played with some of the best players in the world during a long career. Unfortunately, that Neal never arrived in Calgary.

Instead, the veteran ended up posting just seven goals and 19 points in 63 games for the Flames. A healthy scratch at times, his role on the team was immediately limited as he never seemed to find a real comfortable fit in the forward group. Basically every metric fell off a cliff for Neal, and Calgary regretted his contract tremendously. Luckily it did not include any trade protection—a notable difference from Lucic, who will require protection in the expansion draft thanks to his no-movement clause.

The question will be whether either player can recover some of their past glory in their new homes. Lucic has been a shell of his former self offensively for more than two years now, but at least still does provide that physical presence that the Flames have been looking for. The 6’3″ winger has recorded at least 200 hits in each of the last six seasons including 259 in 2018-19. If that’s the role Calgary is expecting of him, he should fulfill those expectations just fine.

Neal however probably has bigger shoes to fill. The Oilers have been desperate for any sort of goal production from the wing—partly due to Lucic’s decline—and may still have big expectations for Neal, especially if they are retaining salary and giving up an additional asset. He’s only a year away from a 25-goal campaign with Vegas, but he’ll have to prove his worth to head coach Dave Tippett before he is strapped to McDavid’s wing.

In all, this is a crap shoot for both teams hoping to find some production in their misspent money. If Lucic can give the Flames some bite and contribute a bit on the fourth line he’ll be more useful to them than Neal was. If Neal can play the powerplay and log some time beside their best forwards he’ll have more value to Edmonton. Neither scenario is guaranteed.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Jacob Trouba Agrees To Terms With New York Rangers

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The New York Rangers are going to avoid arbitration with new defenseman Jacob Trouba, instead agreeing to terms on a new contract. The deal is for seven years and carries an average annual value of $8MM. Trouba was scheduled for an arbitration hearing on July 25, but will no longer require it. CapFriendly provides the full breakdown:

  • 2019-20: $4.0MM salary + $8.0MM signing bonus
  • 2020-21: $2.0MM salary + $8.0MM signing bonus + NMC
  • 2021-22: $2.0MM salary + $6.0MM signing bonus + NMC
  • 2022-23: $6.0MM salary + NMC
  • 2023-24: $8.0MM salary + NMC
  • 2024-25: $6.0MM salary + 15-team NTC
  • 2025-26: $6.0MM salary + 12-team NTC

This contract is exactly the reason why the Winnipeg Jets decided to move on and trade the 25-year old Trouba this summer, as they wouldn’t have been able to afford a deal of this magnitude even if he had wanted to sign long-term there. The Jets have Kyle Connor and Patrik Laine to sign this offseason and already have huge commitments laid out for several others. The Rangers meanwhile had nearly zero long-term commitments when they acquired Trouba for Neal Pionk and a first-round pick, though they subsequently gave Artemi Panarin $81.5MM in free agency.

Signing Trouba is another signal that the Rangers are finished their tear down and are starting to turn the corner towards a competitive team once again. After spending a little over a year selling every asset they could to acquire draft picks and prospects, the Rangers have now added a top-pairing defenseman, superstar winger and second-overall pick in one offseason, not to mention nabbing top college prospect Adam Fox from the Carolina Hurricanes. Though the team is still projected to be very young this year with names like Filip Chytil, Kaapo Kakko, Lias Andersson and Brett Howden fighting for playing time, the additions of Trouba and Panarin are not ones made by a rebuilding club.

The new contract for Trouba will buy out six years of unrestricted free agency, as an arbitration decision of one year would have taken him to the open market. Despite being only 25 he has already played six full seasons in the NHL, totaling 408 regular season games. After taking on a bigger powerplay role last season with the Jets, Trouba set a career-high in points with 50 while still averaging nearly 23 minutes a night. He will immediately become their top right-handed option, forming quite the formidable pairing with Brady Skjei if the team decides to go that route.

At $8MM however, a huge responsibility will be placed on Trouba’s shoulders. The deal makes him the fifth-highest paid defenseman (in terms of cap hit) in the league, tied with John Carlson and Brent Burns. Both of those players have reached the 70-point mark, with Burns being a previous Norris Trophy winner as the league’s best defenseman (three-time finalist). He’ll have more than enough opportunity to get to that level in New York, but it’s still a gamble for the Rangers to make at this point.

In fact, this deal (when combined with Panarin’s) puts the Rangers into a tight salary situation of their own. The team still has Brendan Lemieux and Anthony DeAngelo to sign and an arbitration hearing scheduled for later this month with Pavel Buchnevich. In order to afford new contracts for all three the Rangers will have to make an additional roster move, whether that is trading a player like Vladislav Namestnikov or buying out someone like Kevin Shattenkirk. The team will get another buyout window a few days after the Buchnevich arbitration is settled, which will give them some more flexibility. There is also the possibility of trading veteran forward Chris Kreider who sits as the third-highest paid forward on the team and is scheduled to be an unrestricted free agent next summer.

Either way, this contract for Trouba comes with real consequences for the Rangers. The 25-year old defenseman is an excellent player, but he now has even more pressure to perform than ever.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Bowen Byram Signs Entry-Level Contract

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The Colorado Avalanche have signed top prospect Bowen Byram to a three-year entry-level contract. The deal will only kick in for the 2019-20 season if Byram plays in more than nine games at the NHL level.

The fourth-overall pick in June’s draft, Byram was the top defenseman selected and is coming off an incredible season with the Vancouver Giants of the WHL. Playing this season at just 17 years old, Byram recorded 71 points in 67 games and led all players—defensemen or otherwise—in playoff scoring with 26 points. His upside as a puck-mover is unquestioned, but he’ll have to prove himself at Avalanche training camp before they hand him a full-time role in the NHL.

If he had been selected by another team, Byram’s chances at playing in the NHL for the entire 2019-20 season may have been higher. Colorado has built quite an impressive blue line over the last several years, and even after trading Tyson Barrie to the Toronto Maple Leafs still have eight or nine legitimate roster options. Ian Cole and Erik Johnson are expected to miss the start of the season with injuries, but that still leaves Cale Makar, Nikita Zadorov, Samuel Girard, Kevin Connauton, Mark Barberio, Calle Rosen and even Ryan Graves as possibilities, not to mention Conor Timmins if he can prove he’s healthy enough to contribute.

Though playing more than nine games would start Byram’s contract, teams around the league are worrying less and less about that threshold and more about the 40-game mark. That’s when the season would count towards his eventual unrestricted free agency status, meaning there is a scenario where the young defenseman plays more than nine and still returns to junior eventually. The team could potentially keep him until Cole or Johnson (or both) are set to return, and then potentially even send him to the World Juniors in December to delay the junior decision even further. Once they return him to the Giants they can’t recall him, making it an even tougher decision.

Even if Byram does return to the CHL at the beginning of the season, he represents another high-end piece for the Avalanche to build around. With Nathan MacKinnon still just 23 and Mikko Rantanen 22, there are good times coming in Colorado.

Panthers Re-Sign Samuel Montembeault And Jayce Hawryluk

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July 19: The Panthers have officially announced the contract for Montembeault, confirming the details. Hawryluk’s deal was announced on Wednesday.

July 15: The Panthers have re-signed two of their remaining restricted free agents as goaltender Samuel Montembeault has signed a one-year, two-way deal, CapFriendly reports.  The contract is worth his qualifying offer of just over $708K in the NHL and $70K in the AHL.  Meanwhile, CapFriendly also notes that forward Jayce Hawryluk also accepted his qualifier worth a little more than $874K in the NHL and $70K in the minors.

Montembeault went into last season as the backup at the AHL level behind Michael Hutchinson but a decent showing from him allowed Florida to deal him to Toronto.  The 22-year-old then got a look with the Panthers as Roberto Luongo and James Reimer dealt with injury issues and general struggles.  He held his own in his time with Florida, posting a 3.04 GAA with a .894 SV% in 11 appearances.  As things stand, he heads into next season as the frontrunner to be the backup to new starter Sergei Bobrovsky.  However, as he’s still waiver-exempt, it’s quite possible that he will be back in the minors next year with the team bringing in another backup in the weeks to come.

Hawryluk also split last season between Florida and AHL Springfield.  While he was quite productive with the Thunderbirds with 32 points in 31 games, he wasn’t able to come close to that type of success in the NHL.  He suited up in 42 games with the Panthers but recorded only seven goals and five assists although his ice time was rather limited at only 9:26 per night.  He’ll likely get a chance to reprise his role on the fourth line next season and if he fails to make the team, Hawryluk will have to pass it through waivers to make it back to the minors.

Andrew Copp, Winnipeg Jets Exchange Arbitration Figures

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Second on the list of arbitration hearings scheduled for this summer is Andrew Copp of the Winnipeg Jets. The two sides exchanged figures prior to their hearing on Sunday, and according to Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet the player filed for a one-year deal at $2.9MM while the team is looking for a two-year contract at $1.5MM. In this case the team gets to choose the length of the award because Copp was the one who filed for arbitration. It is important to remember that not only can the two sides still negotiate a different deal in the time remaining (and even for a short period after the hearing), the arbitration decision also does not need to be one salary or the other. The award can (and usually does) fall somewhere in the middle of the submitted figures.

Copp only just turned 25 a few days ago, meaning he will be a restricted free agent at the end of even a two-year contract. The fourth-round pick has developed into a valuable depth piece for the Jets even if his offense still hasn’t progressed very far. Scoring 11 goals and 25 points in 69 games last season was the best rate of his NHL career, but his real worth lies on the penalty kill and in the corners where he is a strong possession player.

The question will be how the Jets can afford to keep him as a fourth-line player if he receives a decision anywhere near the $2.9MM he filed for. Though they still have nearly $23MM in cap room, Winnipeg has contracts still to sign with Kyle Connor and Patrik Laine which should likely total more than $15MM combined. That $23MM disappears fast given it is only based on a 15-player roster at the moment, and Neal Pionk is also due for an arbitration hearing next week. The Jets find themselves in real trouble after losing three key players from their blue line and will need a youngster like Jack Roslovic or Kristian Vesalainen to give them some real value on an entry-level deal.

Montreal Canadiens Agree To Terms With Charles Hudon

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The Montreal Canadiens have ticked another restricted free agent off their to-do list, agreeing to terms with Charles Hudon on a one-year contract. The deal is one-way and will pay Hudon $800K for the 2019-20 season.

Signing Hudon leaves the Canadiens with only Michael McCarron as an unsigned restricted free agent, and also means the team won’t have any arbitration hearings this year. However, because they had at least two players file they will now be granted a short buyout window in three days. Any player they wanted to buy out would need to have at least a $3.45MM cap hit and been on their reserve list at the trade deadline. That does not rule out Karl Alzner, who figures as the only real candidate on the roster but is definitely not guaranteed to be bought out next week.

For the 25-year old Hudon, last season was one to forget. The minor league star played in 32 games with the Canadiens and scored just five points, spending long stretches as a healthy scratch. It’s hard to see how he’ll change that this year given that he currently projects as something like the 15th or 16th forward, depending on how head coach Claude Julien feels about Ryan Poehling and some of the other newcomers.

Hudon has plenty of offensive talent, shown through his three outstanding AHL seasons where he totaled 159 points in 198 games. What he doesn’t seem to have at this point is the trust of the coaching staff, which could make him an afterthought again this year. Training camp and roster health will be extremely important for Hudon this fall as he tries to battle his way onto the club. If he can’t, he’ll be a candidate on waivers for a desperate club looking for a little more punch.

East Notes: Rangers, Johansen, McAvoy

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With the Rangers needing to find out ways to clear out salary cap space in the near future, their trade chips don’t appear to be drawing much interest.  Larry Brooks of the New York Post reports that Brendan Smith has yielded no interest while the only way they can move fellow buyout candidate Kevin Shattenkirk is if they take back another onerous contract (which wouldn’t do much to help their cap situation).  Meanwhile, they haven’t had any takes for winger Vladislav Namestnikov yet either.  With basically two weeks until their second buyout window opens up (which could come earlier if both Jacob Trouba and Pavel Buchnevich re-sign before their scheduled hearings), GM Jeff Gorton will certainly be active in the coming days to try to find a fit on the trade front.

Elsewhere in the East:

  • Lucas Johansen was once Washington’s top defensive prospect but he has been passed on the depth chart over the last couple of seasons. Accordingly, NBC Sports Washington’s J.J. Regan posits that the blueliner could ultimately find himself on the trade block before too long as a result.  The Capitals have some quality depth on the back end in their system and his first-round pedigree could still be of interest to some teams; with only a small group of plausible trade chips, it’s possible that Johansen could be made available at some point next season.
  • While Charlie McAvoy is among the sizable class of notable restricted free agents this summer, NBC Sports Boston’s Joe Haggerty suggests that a bridge deal for the defenseman may be the best way to go. McAvoy has lots of offensive upside but he hasn’t yet been able to put it together on a consistent basis while also dealing with injury troubles.  Between that and the fact he’s not eligible for an offer sheet, he doesn’t have a lot of leverage.  From the Bruins standpoint, a shorter-term contract would also make it easier for them to re-sign fellow RFA Brandon Carlo without needing to free up much salary.  That said, that route is probably a Plan B at this point as finding a suitable long-term fit is likely the priority for both sides.

Sharks Expect To Re-Sign Joe Thornton

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The Sharks are still piecing together the final pieces of their roster for 2019-20.  One player that head coach Peter DeBoer expects to be part of that mix is UFA center Joe Thornton.  He told Sportsnet’s Luke Fox (Twitter link) that he has no doubt that the 40-year-old will be back in the fold next season.

Thornton’s days of being a point-per-game player have come and gone but he was still an effective point-getter for San Jose last season.  He played in 73 games, recording 16 goals and 35 assists which was good enough to rank eighth in team scoring.  He adjusted pretty well to being on the third line at times, a role he’d likely reprise if he eventually does wind up re-signing with the team.

The big question will be the price tag.  The team has a little over $4.6MM in cap room at the moment, per CapFriendly with a couple of forwards needed to fill out their roster.  Thornton signed for $5MM for 2018-19 but is coming off of a better season now than he did before.  One way they might be able to do to wiggle him in is do something with performance bonuses – that’s what we projected for him while ranking him 18th on our Top 50 UFA list – but there is some risk to that.  If he was to meet those bonuses with San Jose finishing close to the Upper Limit, they’d be facing a bonus overage for 2020-21 where they already have $62MM committed to just 11 players which doesn’t give them much flexibility in the first place.

GM Doug Wilson has shown some creativity already this offseason with the Erik Karlsson extension, Timo Meier’s four-year RFA deal that carries an interesting bonus structure and is two-way in the final season, and Kevin Labanc’s surprising one-year, $1MM pact.  He’ll need to be creative once again to bring Thornton back into the fold for his 22nd NHL campaign.

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