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Archives for August 2018

Salary Cap Deep Dive: New York Rangers

August 11, 2018 at 6:20 pm CDT | by Holger Stolzenberg 1 Comment

Navigating the Salary Cap is probably one of the more important tasks for any general manager to have. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2018-19 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

New York Rangers

Current Cap Hit: $73,823,569 (under the $79.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Pavel Buchnevich (one year remaining, $925K)
D Neal Pionk (one year remaining, $925K)
F Lias Andersson (three years remaining, $894K)
F Filip Chytil (three years remaining, $894K)
D Anthony DeAngelo (one year remaining, $863K)
G Alexandar Georgiev (two years remaining, $793K)

Potential Bonuses

Pionk: $850K
Andersson: $850K
Deangelo: $400K
Chytil: $350K

Total: $2.45MM

With the team in quick rebuild mode, there are some entry-level deals already and if the team continues to trend in that direction, they will have quite a bit more. The team’s most prominent player at the NHL level to date would be Buchnevich, who improved on his rookie campaign with a 14-goal, 43-point season last year. He saw more ice time as well, improving from 13:16 ATOI to 15:01 as well as saw significant time on the team’s power play, potting five goals and 11 assists with the man advantage and has earned himself a solid spot in the team’s top-six. Another improved season could see him being an expensive restricted free agent.

The team has high expectations for their two 2017 first-rounders in Andersson and Chytil. Both have shown excellent skills and have received some time playing for the NHL with Andersson seeing seven games, while saw nine games. Both are expected to earn time with the Rangers out of training camp, but both may find themselves on bottom-six lines unless they can prove that they can center the second or third lines in training camp.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Kevin Hayes ($5.18MM, UFA)
F Mats Zuccarello ($4.5MM, UFA)
D Rob O’Gara ($874K, RFA)
F Cody McLeod ($750K, UFA)
D Fredrik Claesson ($863K, RFA)
F Peter Holland ($675K, UFA)
D Steven Kampfer ($650K, UFA)
G Marek Mazanec ($650K, UFA)

The team agreed to a one-year deal with Hayes, avoiding arbitration, but now face the possibility that Hayes could walk away at the end of the season as he will be unrestricted, which will force the team into two possible directions, including attempting to work out a long-term deal with the team after Jan. 1, 2019, or trading him, possibly at the trading deadline if the two sides can’t agree on anything. Hayes, who has been a jack of all trades playing multiple positions, seems to have developed into a solid center as he produced his best season ever, which included 25 goals, eight more than any previous year. The question is, do the Rangers view him as a fixture in their lineup as they continue to rebuild?

At age 30, Zuccarrello still puts up solid numbers, but despite the high-end minutes that the veteran gets, he falls into a similar category to that of Hayes where you have to ask whether he is in the team’s long-term plans. The winger is penciled in to play on the team’s top line once again, but has only put up 31 goals over the past two seasons. He does produce quite a few assists (81 over the past two years), but what the Rangers need more than anything is goals. Zuccarello will also turn 32 before he begins his next contract and at that age, how long are the Rangers willing to commit to him?

Two Years Remaining

F Chris Kreider ($4.63MM, UFA)
F Ryan Spooner ($4MM, UFA)
F Vladislav Namestnikov ($4MM, UFA)
F Jimmy Vesey ($2.28MM, UFA)
F Matt Beleskey ($1.9MM, UFA)
F Jesper Fast ($1.85MM, UFA)

Kreider is coming off a tough year in which he had to deal with blood clots and had surgery to relieve the pressure and missed almost two months of time. The 27-year-old didn’t have as solid of a season as he tallied just 16 goals in 58 games, which is a far cry from the 28 goals he scored in 2016-17 although a lot of that is due to the fact that his playing time dipped as the team didn’t want to play him too many minutes due to the blood clot issue. Regardless with a full offseason to rest and recuperate, Kreider should be able to bounce back as one of the team’s top scorers.

The team also have high expectations from two other forwards that the team acquired through at the trade deadline a year ago in Namestnikov and Spooner. Namestnikov was the biggest name to arrive in New York in the Ryan McDonagh trade with Tampa Bay. He was a key player for the Lightning, posting 20 goals and 44 points with them, but he actually lost playing time once he arrived in New York and put up just two goals and four points in 19 games. The team hopes that a new coach and proper training camp with his new team will make quite a difference. Spooner came over in the Rick Nash trade with Boston and has posted solid numbers with the Bruins over the past few seasons and could turn out to be a top-six wing or third-line center in New York. Between the two teams, Spooner combined for 13 goals and 28 assists.

The team also expect big things from Vesey, who signed as a undrafted collegiate free agent a couple of years ago and if finally starting to show that he belongs in the NHL. The 25-year-old winger has put up solid numbers for two years, but could find himself getting more opportunities in the team’s rebuild. In two years, he’s combined for 33 goals and 55 points.

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Three Years Remaining

G Henrik Lundqvist ($8.5MM, UFA)
D Kevin Shattenkirk ($6.65MM, UFA)
D Marc Staal ($5.7MM, UFA)
D Brendan Smith ($4.35MM, UFA)

Lundqvist has made it clear he wants to stay with the Rangers, rebuild or not, but his numbers have steadily declined over the past four years when he posted a 2.25 GAA in 2014-15. However, those numbers have dropped each year to 2.48 in 2015-16, 2.74 in 2016-17 and finally to 2.98 GAA in 2017-18. Granted the defense that has surrounded the veteran has been horrible, but if Lundqvist can’t start rebounding, the team will have to find someone else to take some of his load in the future.

With a team looking to rebuild, the team does have quite a few contracts that suddenly don’t look that good anymore when it comes to their offseason signings last year of Shattenkirk and Smith. Shattenkirk put up solid numbers to start the season, but dealt with a knee injury in January and was eventually shut down. Regardless, the team can only hope the 29-year-old can bounce back and quarterback their offense, which was lacking this season. Smith, however, came into camp out of shape and struggled immensely before the team finally buried his contract in the AHL. Supposedly, Smith has been working out all summer and is expected to earn back a roster spot for this year.

Four Or More Years Remaining

F Mika Zibanejad ($5.35MM through 2021-22)
D Brady Skjei ($5.25MM through 2023-24)

Zibanejad is another center who seems to fall into a long line of players who fans wonder whether he’s good enough to be their future No. 1 playmaker. The 25-year-old, however, had a solid season, posting 25 goals and 47 points as their top-line center. He is locked up for another four years, so he’s likely to stay there unless Andersson and Chytil develop into that elite center the team has been looking for years.

Skjei signed his extension over the summer, and is expected to be a key contributor to the team for years. However, the problem is that Skjei regressed last year after a big rookie season. Whether it had something to do with the coaching or their defensive system or whether he wasn’t ready for a big role on the team’s defense, Skjei struggled to produce points, posting just 25 points after scored 39 the previous year. Regardless, most feel that Skjei will bounce back and be one of the team’s top defensemen over the next few years.

Buyouts

D Dan Girardi ($3.61MM in 2018-19 and 2019-20; $1.11MM in 2020-21, 2021-22 and 2022-23)

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

None

Best Value: Zibanejad
Worst Value: Smith

(Excluding entry-level contracts)

Looking Ahead

The Rangers future, however, looks bright as they have no contracts that will hold the team hostage in four years, meaning New York can build their future now and sign their best players without having to worry about big contracts weighing down their team. Granted, the team still must deal with four big contracts in Shattenkirk, Smith, Staal and Lundqvist for the next three years, but hopefully the team and new coaching staff can get more out of that group next year. Regardless, if the team can develop talent, they are in good long-term position to rebuild this franchise.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

AHL| Arbitration| New York Rangers| RFA| Salary Cap Deep Dive 2018 Anthony DeAngelo| Brady Skjei| Brendan Smith| Chris Kreider| Cody McLeod| Dan Girardi| Filip Chytil| Fredrik Claesson| Henrik Lundqvist| Jesper Fast| Jimmy Vesey| Kevin Hayes| Kevin Shattenkirk| Lias Andersson| Marc Staal| Marek Mazanec| Mats Zuccarello| Matt Beleskey| Mika Zibanejad| Neal Pionk| Pavel Buchnevich| Peter Holland| Salary Cap

1 comment

Atlantic Notes: Red Wings, Krug, Reinhart, Kotkaniemi

August 11, 2018 at 4:31 pm CDT | by Holger Stolzenberg 3 Comments

With the last piece of major housekeeping completed in Detroit after the Red Wings signed star Dylan Larkin to a five-year, $30.5MM deal, the team now has to take a look at their salary cap, which they will be over, even after they move forward Johan Franzen to LTIR. General manager Ken Holland told The Athletic’s Craig Custance, they will likely be “in the neighborhood” of $1MM over the cap.

“We’re very tight,” Holland said on Friday of the cap situation. “With this deal, we’re probably a dribble over. Not a lot, but we’re over. We’re going to have to make some decisions moving forward.”

One possibility would be to bury the contracts of Martin Frk and Luke Witkowski in the minors. However, if the team believes that veteran Henrik Zetterberg could end up missing the season as his injuries haven’t improved this summer, the team could place him on LTIR as well and wouldn’t have anything else to worry about. Custance adds, however, that if Zetterberg does return, that likely would end the chances of 2018 first-round pick Filip Zadina of making the roster out of training camp.

  • In a mailbag series, Joe Haggerty of NBC Sports writes that with eight quality NHL defenseman on the roster, the team will likely make a trade before the season starts. The team has Torey Krug, Zdeno Chara, Adam McQuaid, John Moore, Kevan Miller, Matt Grzelcyk, Charlie McAvoy and Brandon Carlo on the roster. The scribe writes that could mean that the team might be ready to move Krug if the team can get a big return for the blueliner. And they would need to, as Krug is one of the top offensive defensemen in the league as only Erik Karlsson, Victor Hedman, Brent Burns and John Klingberg have more points over the last two seasons. He has 22 goals and 110 points combined in that time.
  • The Athletic’s Ryan Stimson (subscription required) wonders where restricted free agent Sam Reinhart should play next year in the Buffalo Sabres’ lineup once he signs. The 22-year-old center has been a decent center for the Sabres in the past, but saw his game blossom once he was moved up and played on the wing next to top-line center Jack Eichel. With the team moving on from Ryan O’Reilly and bringing in prospect Casey Mittelstadt, what should the team do with Reinhart? The scribe breaks down Reinhart’s game and wonders if it would be best for the youngster to take over the team’s No. 2 center position and ease Mittelstadt in.
  • The Athletic’s Mitch Brown (subscription required) ranks the Montreal Canadiens’ top five prospects with 2018 third-overall pick Jesperi Kotkaniemi listed as their top prospect. The young centerman, who flew up the draft boards in the final weeks, anchors a list of prospects that Brown believes is the most exciting in the last five or six years. He has been successful playing in the SM-liiga as an 18-year-old and is expected to fill that long-waited hole in the middle.

Buffalo Sabres| Detroit Red Wings| Montreal Canadiens| Prospects Adam McQuaid| Brandon Carlo| Brent Burns| Casey Mittelstadt| Charlie McAvoy| Dylan Larkin| Erik Karlsson| Filip Zadina| Henrik Zetterberg| Jack Eichel| Jesperi Kotkaniemi| John Klingberg| John Moore| Kevan Miller| Luke Witkowski| Martin Frk| Matt Grzelcyk| Salary Cap| Sam Reinhart| Torey Krug| Victor Hedman| Zdeno Chara

3 comments

Next Summer Should Be Busy For New Jersey

August 11, 2018 at 2:58 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose Leave a Comment

It has been a very quiet offseason for the Devils.  After they were a surprise entrant into the playoffs last season, New Jersey hasn’t made a single acquisition of note while letting late-season pickups in wingers Michael Grabner and Patrick Maroon go.  While part of that could be attributable to the team opting to simply stay the course if they couldn’t land the specific free agents they wanted (such as Maroon and winger James van Riemsdyk), their caution may also be due to what could be on the horizon next summer.

Looking ahead to next offseason, quite a few notable players will be in need of new contracts.  Goalie Keith Kinkaid, who took over as the starter late in the year, is a pending unrestricted free agent as is forward Marcus Johansson, their key acquisition last summer.  Veteran center Brian Boyle and blueliner Ben Lovejoy are also pending UFAs.  On the RFA side, defenseman Will Butcher had a strong rookie year and if he follows that up with a similar sophomore campaign, he’ll be in line for a considerable raise.  If center Pavel Zacha takes a step forward in 2018-19, he’ll land himself a nice bump in pay as well.

On top of that group, three of their top players will be in line for extensions next summer as well, headlined by MVP winger Taylor Hall.  It’s going to cost considerably more than the $6MM he’s currently getting to lock him up long-term and forego testing the open market.  His linemate in 2017 first-overall pick Nico Hischier will also be within a year of restricted free agency and will undoubtedly make a whole lot more than his $925K base salary, the maximum for players on entry-level deals.  Defenseman Sami Vatanen, who took over as New Jersey’s top rearguard upon being acquired from Anaheim, is also going to be in the same boat as Hall and will be looking at a multi-million per year raise.

That’s a lot of players who will need to be addressed in the next dozen or so months so keeping lots of flexibility isn’t necessarily a bad way to go.  No team has more cap room than the Devils at the moment so they have the ability to add if someone comes available at the right price or they can stand pat and hope for continued progression for their young players with the intention of being in the mix for a playoff spot once again.  Whichever route they take, the Devils are going to go from one of the most inactive teams this summer to one of the more active ones next offseason.

New Jersey Devils

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Stars Notes: Seguin, Lindell, Kanzig, Defense

August 11, 2018 at 1:48 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 3 Comments

While the Stars would understandably like to lock up center Tyler Seguin to a long-term contract extension, NBC Sports’ James O’Brien believes he’d be better off waiting until next summer to sign instead.  For starters, he may want to see if this roster is closer to contention; despite their offensive talent in recent years, Dallas has missed the playoffs in three of the past five seasons and has just one postseason series victory over the two times they did make it.  It’s understandable that he may want to see if they get back on the right track under new head coach Jim Montgomery before committing.

There’s also the potential for Seguin to leave money on the table as many often do when foregoing testing the open market.  If he’s looking to maximize his pay, waiting until July may be the way to go, especially based on the interest and offers for John Tavares, who received $11MM per year from Toronto.  It’s unlikely he’d get that type of deal signing now.  Seguin’s case is certainly going to be one to watch for as 2018-19 progresses if they’re unable to agree on an extension by October.

More from Dallas:

  • Although Seguin is justifiably drawing all of the attention when it comes to a potential extension, Matthew DeFranks of the Dallas Morning News suggests that defenseman Esa Lindell may be a candidate for one as well. He’s coming off of a quality season that saw him post a career-high 27 points while logging over 22 minutes per night for the first time, the second-highest ATOI on the team.  The 24-year-old has one year left on his current deal with a $2.2MM cap hit and will be a restricted free agent with arbitration eligibility in July.
  • Defenseman Keenan Kanzig has inked a one-year deal with Idaho of the ECHL, the Dallas affiliate announced. The physical blueliner was a third-round pick of the Flames (67th overall) back in 2013 but has spent his entire career thus far at the minor league level.  He was moved to Carolina last summer as part of the Eddie Lack trade and spent all of last year in the ECHL where he had five assists and 106 penalty minutes in 63 games which resulted in him being non-tendered back in June.
  • The Stars had interest in bringing back defenseman Greg Pateryn this summer, notes Sean Shapiro of The Athletic (Twitter link). However, they were looking at him to play a sixth or seventh role while Pateryn was looking for a bigger contract than someone in that role would receive.  In the end, he went to Minnesota on a three-year, $6.75MM contract while in turn, Dallas brought in veteran Roman Polak on a one-year, $1.3MM pact to play the role they had envisioned for Pateryn.

Dallas Stars Esa Lindell| Greg Pateryn| Roman Polak| Tyler Seguin

3 comments

The Rest Of The Goaltending Market

August 11, 2018 at 12:39 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 5 Comments

Most teams are set between the pipes heading into next season but there is still likely to be a little bit of movement at that position in the weeks to come as training camps get closer.  With that in mind, here is an overview of the goaltending market.

Free Agent Options

Kari Lehtonen – His final season in Dallas resembled a lot of his tenure there.  Lehtonen had some good moments but also some particularly rough ones at inopportune times including down the stretch when Ben Bishop was injured.  After being a starter for the majority of his career, the 34-year-old is now going to have to settle for a backup job at best.

Steve Mason – The Jets were hoping that Mason would improve on his prior year numbers with Philadelphia and give youngster Connor Hellebuyck a serious run for the starting role.  That didn’t happen.  He wound up dealing with concussion troubles and struggled when he was healthy which resulted in him only playing in 11 games.  He was dealt in a cap-clearing move to Montreal last month and was subsequently bought out.

Ondrej Pavelec – After spending most of 2016-17 in the minors, Pavelec was the backup for the Rangers last season and he didn’t exactly make the most of his opportunity, posting a 3.05 GAA and a .910 SV% in 19 games.  If he wants to stay in North America, he may have to sign with a team that has a starting job at the AHL level available and then try to make the most of any recalls he gets.

Trade Options

Craig Anderson (Ottawa) – The Sens have been shopping Anderson following his trade request which came out last month.  However, the 37-year-old is coming off a rough campaign and is now in the first year of a two-year extension he signed last season, one that carries a $4.75MM cap hit.  With there only being backup slots available, it’s likely that Ottawa will have to wait until injuries strike somewhere midseason as it’s unlikely that they’ll be willing to retain any amount of consequence to facilitate a move.

Anton Forsberg (Chicago) – When he was given the starting job following what was believed to be a concussion for Corey Crawford, Forsberg struggled to the point where management felt it was necessary to get a more proven player behind Crawford.  That’s why they moved quickly to sign Cam Ward and in doing so, shifted Forsberg to the third-string role.  Head coach Joel Quenneville said recently that they won’t carry three goalies which appears to make the 25-year-old the odd man out.  He has one year left on his deal with a $750K cap hit and will be eligible for restricted free agency next summer.

Al Montoya (Edmonton) – The Oilers brought in Montoya midseason to try to shore up their backup position and while he helped, he didn’t do enough to instil confidence from management as in May, the team moved quickly to bring in Mikko Koskinen from the KHL which has relegated the 33-year-old to third-string status.  Edmonton could conceivably keep him around as insurance but they already have three goalies signed that are likely to contend for AHL time so they may want to move Montoya to alleviate the logjam.  He has one year left at a cap hit just over $1.06MM and will be a UFA next July.

Calvin Pickard/Garret Sparks (Toronto) – With the season Curtis McElhinney had, he’s a safe bet to return as Toronto’s backup.  That leaves both Pickard (26) and Sparks (25) in some limbo.  Both are coming off very strong seasons in the minors and require waivers to return to the Marlies next season.  A team that thinks one of these players has some upside may be willing to look at one as a backup; in Pickard’s case, he has been one in the past with Colorado.  Pickard is set to make $800K next year and will be a UFA after that while Sparks checks in at $675K and will be an RFA next summer.

Potential Interested Teams

Washington dealt backup Philipp Grubauer to Colorado back at the draft and they are presently set to use Pheonix Copley, a veteran of two NHL games, as their backup.  A big reason for that is the salary cap as Copley makes the league minimum but if one of the veterans is willing to accept a similar salary, they would be better suited going with a more proven option between the pipes.

Winnipeg added Laurent Brossoit early in free agency with the expectation that he would be the new backup for Hellebuyck.  However, since they weren’t able to keep center Paul Stastny around, they will have more salary cap flexibility than they were initially expecting.  Considering that Brossoit struggled considerably in Edmonton last season, they would be wise to consider adding another option between the pipes.

The Rangers currently have youngster Alexandar Georgiev positioned to be Henrik Lundqvist’s backup next season.  While that makes some sense given their commitment to go younger, Georgiev only has one year in North America under his belt and is still waiver exempt.  From a development standpoint, it would make sense for him to play more in AHL Hartford than simply spell Lundqvist every fourth or fifth game.  A stopgap veteran or one of the potential waiver-bound players would allow Georgiev to develop a little more which would make a lot of sense for them to do.

Calgary has a pair of youngsters set to battle for the backup role in David Rittich and Jon Gillies but both struggled down the stretch last season when Mike Smith was injured.  The Flames, who have some more space to work with following the buyout of winger Troy Brouwer, may be better served looking for a more proven insurance policy.

Most of the goaltending tandems for 2018-19 are already in place but between now and the start of the season, there is still bound to be a little more movement at that position in the weeks to come.

Free Agency

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Salary Cap Deep Dive: New York Islanders

August 11, 2018 at 11:27 am CDT | by Brian La Rose Leave a Comment

Navigating the Salary Cap is probably one of the more important tasks for any general manager to have. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2018-19 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

New York Islanders

Current Cap Hit: $68,940,833 (under the $79.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Mathew Barzal (two years remaining, $863K)
F Anthony Beauvillier (one year remaining, $894K)

Potential Bonuses

Barzal: $400K
Beauvillier: $213K

Total: $613K

Barzal had a masterful rookie season as he took home the Calder Trophy while finishing fifth in the league in assists.  He also had one more point than John Tavares which should give fans some hope that they still have a top center to build around.  He’s well on pace to bypass a bridge deal and is someone that they may look to give an early extension to next summer.  Beauvillier took a nice step forward in the goal-scoring department last season as he more than doubled his rookie season output and should slot in nicely in their top-six for 2018-19.  Another step forward could make him a likely candidate for a long-term deal as well.  From a bonus perspective, both players should be able to hit their targets for next year but they have more than enough cap room to easily absorb those.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Jordan Eberle ($6MM, UFA)
F Valtteri Filppula ($2.75MM, UFA)
F Jan Kovar ($2MM, UFA)
F Tom Kuhnhackl ($700K, UFA)
F Anders Lee ($3.75MM, UFA)
G Robin Lehner ($1.5MM, UFA)
F Brock Nelson ($4.25MM, UFA)

After losing a big part of their attack in Tavares this summer, New York is facing the prospect of that happening again with three of their top eight scorers being eligible for unrestricted free agency next summer.  The most notable among that group is Eberle who was a nice addition to their forward group two years ago and he hasn’t missed a beat since leaving Edmonton.  He’s a consistent 20-goal scorer and if he doesn’t sign an extension, he will be entering the market at the age of 29 so while Eberle probably won’t be able to command a significant raise, a deal close to the maximum term isn’t entirely out of the question, especially if he can get close to the 60-point mark once again.

Lee followed up a surprising 34-goal 2016-17 campaign with a 40-goal performance last season which makes his current deal one of the better bargains around the league.  With goal scoring at a premium, he should easily be able to hit $6MM or more on his next deal.  Nelson isn’t a top center and may be better suited to be a high-end third pivot than a second-liner but he is quite consistent in his production which will help his case in free agency and should help him get a small raise on the deal he signed to avoid arbitration last month.

Kovar was one of the more intriguing signings in free agency.  He’s coming off of a quieter year in the KHL but has been a top point producer in the past which gives them some upside.  With no NHL background, it’s hard to forecast what his new deal may look like.  They have some insurance in Filppula if Kovar struggles but it wouldn’t be shocking to see the team look to try to move the veteran Finn by the trade deadline although they’ll have a no-move clause to contend with.  Kuhnhackl should battle for a fourth line spot after joining the team from Pittsburgh and after getting non-tendered this summer, he’s not going to be commanding a big raise on his next deal.

Lehner is looking to rebound from a rough year in Buffalo.  A solid showing even in a platoon role would help get him some multi-year offers in July but if he continues to slide and fails to make a push for the number one job, he may be in tough to find another offer next summer.  He’s under quite a bit of pressure heading into next season.

Two Years Remaining

G Thomas Greiss ($3.33MM, UFA)
F Matt Martin ($2.5MM, UFA)
D Ryan Pulock ($2MM, RFA)

Greiss is coming off a disastrous year, one that saw his GAA go up by over a full goal per game while losing 21 points off his save percentage.  After looking like a bargain based on his 2016-17 campaign, his contract isn’t looking too good right now.  He’ll get a chance to restore some value but Lehner should push him for minutes.  Martin was added for a minimal return and after spending most of the year on the bench in Toronto, he will be pushing to play a more regular role.  Even if that happens, he won’t be landing close to this money on his next contract.

Pulock’s deal is somewhat back-loaded which sets him up for a qualifying offer that’s a fair bit higher ($2.65MM) than his current cap hit.  If he continues to progress offensively, this deal has the potential to be a nice bargain over the next couple of years.

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Three Years Remaining

F Casey Cizikas ($3.5MM, UFA)
D Adam Pelech ($1.6MM, RFA)

Cizikas is a great fit as an energetic fourth-line center but gets exposed a bit more when he’s asked to take on a bigger role.  Unfortunately for them, it’s hard to justify keeping him on the fourth line with the contract he has.  Pelech’s first full season in the NHL was a decent one which makes his current deal look reasonable despite the risk the team took committing four years to him when he had only played 53 career NHL games.  He will be one year away from UFA eligibility at the end of the deal but lots can change between now and then.

Four Or More Years Remaining

F Josh Bailey ($5MM through 2023-24)
D Johnny Boychuk ($6MM through 2021-22)
F Cal Clutterbuck ($3.5MM through 2021-22)
D Thomas Hickey ($2.5MM through 2021-22)
F Ross Johnston ($1MM through 2021-22)
F Leo Komarov ($3MM through 2021-22)
F Andrew Ladd ($5.5MM through 2022-23)
D Nick Leddy ($5.5MM through 2021-22)
D Scott Mayfield ($1.45MM through 2022-23)

After being more of a secondary scorer for a while, Bailey emerged two years ago as a higher-end playmaker and built on that nicely last season, picking up 53 helpers in 76 games which helped earn him a long-term extension.  While he won’t have Tavares on his line which could drop his production, the Islanders don’t need him to push for 70 points to get decent value out of the deal.  If he can hover around 50-55, they’ll be alright.  The same can’t be said for Ladd.  His contract is among the worst values in the league now, especially considering he’ll be 38 when his deal comes to an end.

Like Cizikas, Clutterbuck is a great fit on a high-energy fourth line that doesn’t fare as well with other opportunities.  However, with the contract he has, they have to try to find more than eight minutes a night for him.  With all of that grit they already have, it was quite surprising to see them ink Komarov long-term.  He’s capable of playing more minutes based on his time with Toronto but they can realistically only benefit from having so many similar players in their lineup.  The four-year extension to Johnston, a veteran of all of 25 career NHL games, follows a similar mindset although their decision to double down (and then some) on grit and toughness is rather perplexing.

When Boychuk signed his current contract, he was in the midst of a career year offensively but his output since then has only dropped as have his games played totals as he has struggled to stay healthy.  He’s a top-four player when healthy but if he can’t stay in the lineup now, how much worse could it get over the next four years?  Leddy’s -42 plus/minus rating was abysmal last year but he’s still a legitimate top pairing player that’s locked up at a pretty good price for the long haul.  Hickey’s new deal is quite reasonable for someone that could spend some time in the top four while Mayfield is a third pairing player long-term and while five years is a long time to give that type of player, the cap hit is low enough to really mitigate that risk.

Buyouts

G Rick DiPietro (compliance buyout so no cap hit; payments of $1.5MM to be made through 2028-29)

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

None

Best Value: Lee
Worst Value: Boychuk (although having $13.35MM tied up in five physical/energy forwards also isn’t great value)

(Excluding entry-level contracts)

Looking Ahead

The Islanders have plenty to wonder about as they enter the post-Tavares era while looking to get their new arena situation finalized but with as many expiring contracts as they have, they should be operating well below the Upper Limit for the foreseeable future.  If they want to lock Lee up long-term, they should easily be able to do so from a financial standpoint while a long-term, big money second contract for Barzal won’t impact their books too much over the long haul.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

New York Islanders| Salary Cap Deep Dive 2018

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Brady Tkachuk To Turn Pro And Sign With Senators

August 11, 2018 at 10:15 am CDT | by Brian La Rose 3 Comments

With his self-imposed deadline of August 12th to make a decision on his plans for next season fast approaching, Senators first-rounder Brady Tkachuk has informed his college coach that he intends to turn pro and sign with Ottawa, reports ESPN’s John Buccigross (Twitter link).

Tkachuk is coming off of a strong freshman season at Boston University that saw him post 31 points (8-23-31) in just 40 games while also being among the top scorers at the World Juniors.  That helped him become the fourth overall pick back in June.

Many believe Tkachuk is physically ready to withstand the rigors of a full NHL season and with the expectation that the Senators are still likely to sell between now and the start of the year, there is a good chance that he’d be able to step in and play a regular role right away.

However, this decision doesn’t necessarily lock him into Ottawa’s lineup come October.  As he wasn’t drafted out of the CHL, he is eligible to play at the AHL level with their affiliate in Belleville.  His junior rights are held by OHL London and the Sens could opt to send him there as well if he doesn’t project to be a full-timer in the NHL.

If he does start out in Ottawa, he will be subject to the same games played thresholds as other junior-aged players are.  He could play nine games without burning the first year of his entry-level deal while he wouldn’t accrue a season towards unrestricted free agency until he hits the 40-game mark.

Ottawa Senators Brady Tkachuk

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Morning Notes: Olympics, Point, Daley

August 11, 2018 at 9:10 am CDT | by Brian La Rose 2 Comments

While the next Winter Olympics are still more than three years away, TSN’s Gord Miller notes (Twitter link) that the IIHF has given the IOC four potential options for the 2022 competition.  One is to use NHL players, another is like the most recent entry where non-NHL professionals could play, and one of the four is to simply have no tournament.  The other proposed option is under-23 players (it’s not specified as to whether or not NHL players would be eligible) where some junior-aged prospects would likely get a chance to play as well.

NHL commissioner Gary Bettman has suggested previously that they wouldn’t mind going to the Summer Olympics where it wouldn’t interfere with the regular season.  With new CBA talks on the somewhat-near horizon, there’s a decent chance that the Players’ Association looks to make this a collectively-bargained issue once again.  At any rate, while these options are already out there, we’re a long way from knowing whether or not NHL players will be going back to the Olympics in Beijing.

Elsewhere around the hockey world:

  • While Tampa Bay been active this summer signing players to extensions, they have not started discussions with center Brayden Point, reports Joe Smith of The Athletic (subscription required). The 22-year-old finished third on the Lightning in scoring last season with 66 points (32-34-66) in 82 games but with all of their commitments for next season already (nearly $66MM to just 12 players), it’s going to be difficult for them to work out a long-term deal without having to free up some extra room first.  With that in mind, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the team pursue a bridge contract with Point next summer.
  • With the Red Wings expected to struggle next season, MLive’s Ansar Khan suggests that the team could look to move defenseman Trevor Daley around the trade deadline. The 34-year-old wouldn’t be a pure rental as he’s signed through 2019-20 but his offensive skill set and mobility could be enough for a contending team to be willing to take on the extra year of his deal.

Detroit Red Wings| Olympics| Tampa Bay Lightning Brayden Point

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Previewing The August College Free Agent Market

August 10, 2018 at 8:18 pm CDT | by Zach Leach Leave a Comment

On Wednesday, August 15th, all drafted players who went the NCAA route and graduated this spring will become free agents if they remain unsigned by the team that holds their NHL rights. Unlike the last couple of summers, which featured names like Will Butcher, Alexander Kerfoot, Jimmy Vesey and Matt Benning, there is no standout name in this year’s class of late summer college free agents. However, as of now, CapFriendly reports that 16 players are set to hit the market next week. Some of them will not be in search of an NHL contract. Brown forward Max Willman was granted an additional year of NCAA eligibility due to injury and has committed to Boston University next season as a graduate student-athlete. UConn’s David Drake has already worked out an AHL deal with the affiliate of the team that drafted him, the Philadelphia Flyers, and Wisconsin’s Matt Ustaski has a similar arrangement with the Winnipeg Jets. Cornell’s Jared Fiegl and Dwyer Tschantz have already accepted their place in the pro hockey hierarchy and signed ECHL contracts. All of these players can technically sign with an NHL team after August 15th, but it is unlikely.

So what of the other available players? Here is a quick summary of the eleven collegians you may see sign with an NHL team in the coming weeks and a prediction of where they’ll end up:

D Terrance Amorosa, Clarkson (PHI, Rd. 5 – 2013)

Amorosa is the most productive of the players on this list over his NCAA career and he accomplished that feat as a defenseman. A smooth-skating, puck-moving defenseman, Amorosa’s 27 points were key to a hugely successful season for the Golden Knights. Whether his choice or Philadelphia’s, it is not a major surprise that the young defenseman-heavy Flyers weren’t a good fit. The Quebec native has been training with NHLers in Montreal this summer and seems poised to find NHL employment somewhere, with an AHL floor. Prediction: NHL contract

D Kelly Summers, Clarkson (OTT, Rd. 7 – 2014)

The only Clarkson defenseman with more points than Amorosa last season was frequent pair-mate Summers. Not only is Summers slightly younger than Amorosa, he is also a little bigger and played in more games over the duo’s four years in Potsdam. Summers, who is also a right shot, recorded 30 points last season for the Golden Knights and possesses a great first pass. He may not want to sign in Ottawa, but he’ll be happy to sign elsewhere. Like Amorosa, hard to see Summers signing at any level below the AHL. Prediction: NHL contract

F Judd Peterson, St. Cloud State (BUF, Rd. 7 – 2012)

If anything works against Peterson, it will be age and mileage, as the hard-working forward played in two USHL seasons in addition to four NCAA seasons since being drafted out of high school by Buffalo. Yet, that has also added to his hockey IQ and leadership ability as well. The Huskies captain put up respectable offense in each of his seasons at St. Cloud and by the end was also a responsible defensive asset. He even has a summer coaching gig at St. Cloud hockey camps. Peterson got a taste of the pro game with a brief tryout with the AHL’s Rochester Americans to end the year and seems like a good bet to challenge for an energy line role with an NHL team down the road, if not right away. Prediction: NHL contract

D Steven Johnson, Minnesota (LAK, Rd. 4 – 2014)

It’s somewhat surprising to see Johnson still unsigned. After wrapping up his season with the Gophers, Johnson jumped right in with the Kings’ AHL affiliate, the Ontario Reign and didn’t look out of place in four games. The two-way defender led all Minnesota defensemen with 15 points last year and was one of the team’s ice time leaders. He will likely transition well to the AHL after facing tough Big Ten competition and could help an NHL club relatively soon as a depth option. Prediction: AHL contract

F Avery Peterson, Minnesota – Duluth (MIN, Rd. 6 – 2013)

Another strange player to see available, Peterson is a Minnesota native drafted by the Wild out of Grand Rapids High School and starring for Duluth over the past two years, including helping the team to a National Championship in April. Peterson got off to a rough start in his first two collegiate seasons at Nebraska-Omaha, but since transferring has really turned his game around. He isn’t a high-skill player, but he has the rare combination of both size and speed and can be a useful bottom-six player. He has okay odds of landing an NHL deal, but Minnesota did seem like the most likely spot. It seems more likely that he starts in the minors. Prediction: AHL contract

F Shane Eiserman, New Hampshire (OTT, Rd. 4 – 2014)

Eiserman is a good, consistent forward and a former member of the U.S. National Development Program. However, he has never quite reached the ceiling that some thought he may have. As a one-dimensional scoring forward with just pedestrian offensive numbers, Eiserman still needs to polish his game and find out where he fits at the pro level. Prediction: AHL contract

F Aidan Muir, Western Michigan (EDM, Rd. 4 – 2013)

A big, physical winger and a locker room leader for the Broncos, Muir is a nice asset for a team. However, the offense just isn’t there yet and the competition gets much harder at the next level. He can be a role player in the AHL and grow his game from there, but could slip into ECHL territory. Prediction: AHL contract

D Johnathan MacLeod, Boston University (TBL, Rd. 2 – 2014)

In this day and age, just playing for BU is a sign of talent. Add a second-round draft position and you may think that you’re looking at a Chad Krys clone. Unfortunately, MacLeod lacks similar potential. Amidst the talent of the Terriers blue line, MacLeod’s inability to make plays at the college level cost him games through the years. He never cracked double-digits in points and only mustered 3 points as a senior. Perhaps his ability will shine through at the AHL, as his resume alone should get him to that level to begin with. Prediction: AHL contract

D Michael Prapavessis, RPI (DAL, Rd. 4 – 2014)

Prapavessis put up good numbers in his college career, especially for a defenseman. Unfortunately, RPI simply isn’t an elite program and leading that team isn’t worth as much as others. Prapavessis has both talent and intelligence and could still be a surprise. He may wind up in the AHL right away, but more likely he will have to work his way up. Prediction: ECHL contract

D Jack Glover, Minnesota (WIN, Rd. 3 – 2014)

Glover may have led the Gophers in plus/minus last season and is certainly a defensive force, but his skating and offensive game simply leave too much to be desired. Prediction: ECHL contract

F Tyler Bird, Brown (CLB, Rd. 5 – 2014)

Bird got better offensively as his career with the Bears wore on, but he still was less than spectacular at putting up points. His lack of a defensive game leaves little upside otherwise. Prediction: ECHL contract

 

AHL| ECHL| Injury| Los Angeles Kings| Minnesota Wild| NCAA| Philadelphia Flyers| Prospects| Winnipeg Jets Jimmy Vesey| Matt Benning

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Prospect Notes: Bukac, Rasmussen, Conger

August 10, 2018 at 6:14 pm CDT | by Zach Leach Leave a Comment

Boston Bruins defensive prospect Daniel Bukac is on the move, but remaining at the Canadian major junior level. Bukac, a seventh-round pick in 2017, has played the last two seasons with the Brandon Wheat Kings of the WHL. However, Brandon released the Czech native after the end of the season to open up another roster spot and selection in the CHL Import Draft. Bukac himself became eligible for selection again and was drafted by the OHL’s Niagara Ice Dogs in the second round. The team announced today that they have received a commitment from the hulking 19-year-old blue liner. The Bruins have to be happy with their prospect’s continued commitment to North American hockey, as Bukac reportedly had pro offers elsewhere in Europe but chose to remain in the major junior development track. Bukac is known mostly for his size and checking ability, but also his intelligence on and off the ice; he picked up English quickly after coming overseas and picks up offensive schemes even quicker with great positioning and awareness. Bukac will never be much of an offensive contributor – at any level – but could grow into a reliable stay-at-home defender and depth option for Boston down the road.

  • One player whose development path has gone quite differently than he and many scouts may have predicted is goaltender Dayton Rasmussen. Considered by many as a lock to be drafted in 2017, Rasmussen nevertheless went undrafted despite very strong numbers and two championship campaigns in the USHL, an impressive NHL Draft combine workout, as well as a commitment to an elite college program at the University of Denver. Rasmussen moved past it and joined the Pioneers this past season, hoping his performance would earn him a selection in his second time through the draft. Instead, Rasmussen struggled as a freshman, playing in just four games and posting an disappointing .882 save percentage and 3.28 GAA. Less surprising this time, Rasmussen again went undrafted in June. Now, Rasmussen is looking to reverse his fortunes and has decided to return to the USHL. The Lincoln Stars announced today that they have acquired the keeper’s rights from the Chicago Steel for a pair of draft picks and that he will be joining the team for the coming season. There is no word yet on Rasmussen’s long-term plans with just one year of draft eligibility remaining and the possibility of a return to the college ranks in the future still open. However, the athletic goaltender simply needs to focus on improving his play this season if he hopes to keep his pro ambitions alive.
  • Another college player making a change – albeit staying in the NCAA – is former Providence College forward Bailey Conger. The 21-year-old forward put up impressive numbers at both the prep school level with Cushing Academy and junior level with the USHL’s Waterloo Blackhawks before arriving in Providence, but wasn’t able to translate that same production to the college game. Part of that was certainly availability, as the freshman missed more than a dozen games due to injury and received only modest play time for a contending Friars program. Conger managed to record five points in 24 games, but seems to have the ability to do much more. Perhaps looking for a better opportunity to shine, Conger decided to transfer schools this summer and Colorado College announced that they have received a commitment from the scoring winger. Conger was reportedly considering Boston University as well among other schools, but will have a greater chance of receiving a transfer waiver to play right away if he is outside of Hockey East and away from his former team. The undrafted forward still has three years of NCAA eligibility remaining and could certainly still develop into an NHL prospect.

Boston Bruins| CHL| NCAA| OHL| Prospects| WHL

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