George McPhee Confirms Vegas Has Completed At Least Six Trades
In meeting with the media today, GM George McPhee of the Vegas Golden Knights was excited about the prospects of his new expansion team. Chris Johnston of Sportsnet sent out a series of tweets quoting McPhee, as he talked about the pre-draft trades he’s completed. The GM announced that there are at least six deals but that he’s lost track of exactly how many. He also said that the team would claim several extra defenders that he would need to trade after the expansion process is complete, and was surprised at how much scoring talent the team has been able to acquire. Even though he had set a deadline last night, several GMs had travel issues in getting to Vegas and McPhee is still talking with them. The Toronto Maple Leafs are one such team, reports Johnston.
The Lightning, Blue Jackets, Islanders, Ducks, and Blackhawks have all been heavily rumored to have deals in place with the Golden Knights, either to eat a bad contract or protect extra players from expansion. Other teams, like the Nashville Predators and Minnesota Wild have tried to get something done without much reported success though obviously that can change in a moment.
One of the most interesting parts of the week will be how many of the expansion selections will be traded immediately, as available players like James Neal have little use to the expansion franchise but could hold big trade value on the open market. Mathew Dumba, Sami Vatanen, Josh Manson, Jason Demers, Calvin de Haan and others are available on defense, and would command healthy returns if they were actually made available. McPhee made it clear that he’s willing to go that route, telling Renaud Lavoie of TVA Sports that some expansion picks will be traded the very next day. The Golden Knights are in an incredible position of leverage as the minutes tick down. They must submit their expansion selections and any free agent contracts tomorrow morning, before everything is announced at the NHL Awards show tomorrow night.
It should prove to be one of the most interesting nights in recent hockey history, with transactions flying all around the league. Remember that there is a still a moratorium on any movement that doesn’t include the expansion team until early Thursday morning, meaning teams will have to wait and watch the expansion frenzy while sitting on their proverbial hands.
Tampa Bay Expected To Have Side Deal With Vegas
Joe Smith of the Tampa Bay Times is reporting that the Tampa Bay Lightning have a side deal with the Vegas Golden Knights to protect their young defensemen, and Bob McKenzie was on TSN 1050 in Toronto confirming that he’s heard for a while that Steve Yzerman has had a deal in place. With Jake Dotchin and Slater Koekkoek both left unprotected, it seemed as though there must be something coming from the Lightning to steer the Vegas pick. 
The Lightning instead decided to protect Braydon Coburn, which was a huge surprise to everyone. In our mock draft, Dotchin garnered an easy majority as the Tampa Bay pick with his upside and late play for the team showing he’s ready for an NHL role next season. James Mirtle of The Athletic notes that the Lightning may be looking to move salary out, which seems to point directly at Jason Garrison. The 32-year old has one year left on his contract for $4.6MM and has a full no-trade clause. Having the Golden Knights choose him in the expansion draft is an easy way around that clause, with some sort of asset going back the other way in return.
If first-round picks are the going currency to dump your problems on the Golden Knights, the Lightning would be giving up the 14th-overall selection. That’s a hefty price to pay, and Smith speculates a deal may be centered around a forward prospect or the team’s two second-round picks instead. It also could be that the team simply wanted to keep Coburn as well, and will give up an asset without any salary heading the other way. With Tyler Johnson and Ondrej Palat leading a large group of RFAs for the team this summer, clearing more salary room out would allow them to be players in free agency. Before trading Jonathan Drouin it wasn’t even clear they’d be able to sign all of their forwards, but within a matter of days cap space could turn into an asset for the Lightning instead of a burden.
While the Golden Knights apparently don’t have a deal in place with Ottawa, it could have as many as nine other trades in place with teams around the league. Their position as the only expansion team in the new salary cap NHL has given them a lot of leverage in trade talks. While it may not be five first-round picks this year, it’s clear that George McPhee and the Golden Knights will collect a strong stable of assets this offseason.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
No Deal In Place Between Ottawa, Vegas
Both Pierre LeBrun of TSN and Bruce Garrioch of Postmedia believe as of the end of yesterday the Ottawa Senators did not have a deal in place with the Vegas Golden Knights. From Vegas GM George McPhee‘s own mouth came the idea that they wouldn’t talk trade after last night, meaning Marc Methot and others will indeed be left exposed in the expansion draft.
In our recent mock expansion draft, our staff picked Methot from the Senators though not unanimously. Bobby Ryan received two votes and a lot more support from the PHR community, and the Senators would probably be happy if he was the selection over Methot. Ryan’s contract will pay him $7.25MM for the next five seasons, and similar to the situation with Dion Phaneuf, the Senators have to believe his price tag will be enough to keep him out of the Golden Knights dressing room. There are other options on defense, with Chris Wideman, Mark Borowiecki and Fredrik Claesson all going unprotected. While those three all have some value, Methot could move into a leadership role with the Golden Knights or could be a top trade candidate as his contract comes to an end in the summer of 2018.
If it is Methot that heads to the strip, the Senators will need to find another player to ride shotgun with Erik Karlsson for next season. Claesson seems to be the only real option for that for the time being, as Borowiecki plays a much different game and Phaneuf has found a chemistry with Cody Ceci on the second pair. Top prospect Thomas Chabot should make an impact eventually, but plays the same side as Karlsson.
Morning Notes: Dahlin, NWHL, Weal
Rasmus Dahlin is the early favorite to go first-overall in the 2018 NHL Entry draft, and he’s about to skip another step in his outstanding young hockey career. According to Uffe Bodin of Hockeysverige, the 17-year old Swedish defenseman will skip the Ivan Hlinka U18 tournament and instead join team Sweden at the U20 tournament. Dahlin played last year in the Hlinka and the World Junior Championship, and will be all over the prospect circuit again this year as he tries to clinch that top spot.
A prototypical two-way defenseman, Dahlin has the size, physicality and offensive upside that makes him a dream for whichever team gets the chance to choose him next season. Likely battling with Andrei Svechnikov for the top spot, Dahlin should be seen with franchise-altering upside. He’ll be tracked carefully for the next year.
- The NWHL has reached a streaming agreement with Twitter to show select games next season, bringing the women’s league to the forefront for the first time. Their games have previously been available to stream on the internet, but they’ll obviously be on a much bigger platform with Twitter for the next season. Last year the Buffalo Beauts took home the Isobel Cup, and just re-signed Corinne Buie the only woman to have won the Cup both years of the league’s existence. She seems to bring victory with her wherever she goes, winning a Clarkson Cup in her last season in the CWHL as well.
- Tim Panaccio of CSN reports that agent J.P. Barry has spoken to Vegas about all the free agents he represents, mentioning Jordan Weal in particular. Weal is a Group VI unrestricted free agent this summer, and though there have been contract talks between his camp and the Flyers to try and keep him around, he’s unprotected and could easily be a target of the Golden Knights in the free agency period. After playing well down the stretch with the Flyers and putting up another outstanding AHL season, Weal is determined to make an impact at the NHL level next season.
Islanders Likely To Move Grabovski And 15th Overall To Vegas
Arthur Staple of Newsday has had to deal with multiple changes in story for the Islanders in the wake of their bizarre protection scheme released yesterday. It seems as though the rationale behind that suspect arrangement might finally be coming to light.
According to Staple, there is a complicated arrangement between Vegas and the Islanders to move Mikhail Grabovski to the team as well as steer Vegas’ pick by enticing them with a 1st-round selection (#15). The 33 year-old Grabovski has had massive concussion issues which kept him sidelined all last season. There’s a very real possibility that Grabovski never fully recovers to full form, so this would be a pure cap dump from the perspective of Vegas. He hasn’t played over 60 games in a season since 2012, and although he has posted decent offensive numbers, he’s never broken 60 points. His contract is worth $5 MM and only runs for another season. It remains to be seen what enticement Vegas will need in order to take on that contract.
The 1st round pick will be offered to Vegas in exchange for their staying away from certain players. As of now, it seems probable that this means the protection of Brock Nelson and/or Calvin de Haan, as other names have been floated with little confirmation. Nikolai Kulemin could be a possible intriguing draft target for Vegas – it would help the cap situation of Garth Snow even further and he has a tight connection with Grabovski. Kulemin is also only under contract for another season, at $4.19 MM.
Even in light of this this information, the whole arrangement seems wildly unnecessary and convoluted. However, If Vegas is willing to take on injured players contracts and cap dumps, as this deal would imply, it may keep the doors open for players such as Toronto’s Joffrey Lupul. If there are any further details that break before Vegas’ selections, we at PHR will be on top of the development.
Should Vegas Corner Goalie Market?
With the recent trade of Mike Smith to Calgary, the market for starting goaltenders is dwindling even further. An interesting dynamic for the Vegas Golden Knights as they choose their team will be whether they opt to select every quality goalie out there in order to flip them to other teams. There are quite a few available – Marc-Andre Fleury of Pittsburgh, Eddie Lack (and Cam Ward) of Carolina, Calvin Pickard of Colorado, Antti Raanta of New York, Petr Mrazek of Detroit, Roberto Luongo of Florida, Jaroslav Halak of the Islanders, Michal Neuvirth of Philadelphia, Peter Budaj of Tampa Bay, and Philipp Grubauer of Washington, with a few interesting prospects also exposed. As we’ve seen in the past few seasons, dealing a goaltender for anything remotely resembling fair value can be an enormous challenge. The salary cap has really warped the value of a solid starting goaltender in a way that has not been totally beneficial to the players.
One down season and a tender’s value goes down quite heavily. The top ten goalies in the league always seem to find a home on the rare occasion they hit unrestricted free agency, but that has been a rare occurrence. Many might point to the 2010 Stanley Cup Final when they isolate a particular moment that the highly-paid goaltender became an oddity. In that Final, Michael Leighton, third-string for Philadelphia, faced off against the very pedestrian Antti Niemi, who was then sacrificed for cap reasons. With the whole league watching, these teams ascended to hockey’s main stage with relative no names in the crease. While that moment may have been particularly damaging, the moment for me was the fiasco that was the Luongo and Cory Schneider trade saga in Vancouver, which lasted parts of 2 seasons. Then Canucks GM Mike Gillis had a terrible time finding a suitor for Luongo before finally being forced to ship Schneider off in the 2013 offseason for a 9th round pick. This too, was terrible value, considering that Schneider was one of the best young goalies in the league and coming off a scorching season where he had a .937 save percentage. This ordeal took place less than two years after Luongo had taken the team to its first Final since 1994. Granted, Luongo’s contract was considered a bit of an albatross, but it very publicly cemented the value of goaltenders on the trade market as minimal.
Looking forward to the present day, and the last two goaltenders have been traded for rather uninspiring returns. Arizona’s Smith only fetched a 3rd rounder, and Ben Bishop only netted a 4th from Dallas. GM George McPhee could end up hosting a goaltender buffet, with few paying customers. He would be wise to gauge the interest of other teams before deciding on their selections in net. They obviously want to draft a solid starter and a few young goaltenders as future cornerstones. They need to draft 3, and it’s difficult to envision them drafting less than 4 with the enticing names available out there. But if they decide to go into 5 or 6 goaltender territory, McPhee could manufacture a logjam that could be difficult to sort out. After all, only the WInnipeg Jets are truly desperate for a starting goaltender, and that’s assuming they don’t want one of Brian Elliott, Mike Condon, or another UFA to be their partner for Connor Hellebuyck. Philadelphia could be interested in a younger asset, and there are always teams who will desperately seek a starter mid-season when a keeper inevitably goes down to injury. That said, the market simply doesn’t favor the strategy of going all-in in net.
PHR Mock Expansion Roster
The protection lists are in, and the Vegas Golden Knights are on the clock to determine who will be selected in the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft. Each team will lose one player off their roster, either through an expansion selection or the Golden Knights signing a free agent.
Vegas must select at least 20 players who are under contract for the 2017-18 season and a minimum of 14 forwards, 9 defensemen and 3 goaltenders. The contracts of the selected players must fall between 60% ($43.8MM) and 100% ($73MM) of the 2016-17 salary cap. The entire rules for the selection process can be found here.
Here at PHR Zach Leach, Brian La Rose, Mike Furlano, Nate Brown, Seth Lawrence, Holger Stolzenberg and I all submitted what we thought the Vegas expansion selections would look like, and below is the projected roster based on those predictions. This made for a pretty interesting lineup, selecting a surplus of NHL defensemen and goaltenders in order to collect assets for the summer.
Forwards (15):
James Neal (NSH)
Cody Eakin (DAL)
David Perron (STL)
Jamie McGinn (ARZ)
Brock Nelson (NYI)
William Karlsson (CBJ)
Hunter Shinkaruk (CGY)
Kerby Rychel (TOR)
Marko Dano (WPG)
Jon Marchessault (FLA)
Charles Hudon (MTL)
Nicolas Kerdiles (ANA)
Beau Bennett (NJD)
Brendan Gaunce (VAN)
Taylor Leier (PHI)
Defensemen (10):
Marc Methot (OTT)
Brenden Dillon (SJS)
Mathew Dumba (MIN)
Brayden McNabb (LAK)
Colin Miller (BOS)
Klas Dahlbeck (CAR)
Trevor van Riemsdyk (CHI)
Griffin Reinhart (EDM)
Jake Dotchin (TB)
Nate Schmidt (WSH)
Goaltenders (5):
Marc-Andre Fleury (PIT)
Petr Mrazek (DET)
Antti Raanta (NYR)
Calvin Pickard (COL)
Linus Ullmark (BUF)
Obviously, some of the expected side deals were taken into account with Anaheim being the clearest example. Both Sami Vatanen and Josh Manson were not selected, as it is almost a given that Anaheim has some sort of a protection deal with the Golden Knights. That said, as GM George McPhee said today, nothing is final until it’s final.
Here are the honorable mentions, made up of players that received more than one vote but were still not the majority choice:
Sami Vatanen (ANA), Josh Manson (ANA), Alexander Burmistrov (ARZ), Malcolm Subban (BOS), William Carrier (BUF), Eddie Lack (CAR), Mikhail Grigorenko (COL), Jack Johnson (CBJ), Dan Hamhuis (DAL), Iiro Pakarinen (EDM), Christian Folin (MIN), Ryan Strome (NYI), Thomas Hickey (NYI), Michael Grabner (NYR), Bobby Ryan (OTT), Paul Martin (SJ) Nail Yakupov (STL), Dmitrij Jaskin (STL), Cedric Paquette (TB), Andrey Pedan (VAN), Philipp Grubauer (WSH).
We came to a unanimous decision on only three players, with Trevor van Riemsdyk, Marc-Andre Fleury and Marko Dano receiving votes from all seven writers. That uncertainty will make the next few days even more interesting, as surprises and closed-door dealings will be sure to make June 21st a wild night. Make sure to leave your choices in the comments, and what you think the chances of this team would be next season.
Last Day For Side-Dealing, Vegas Will Pick Roster Tomorrow
Vegas Golden Knights GM George McPhee met with media today and spoke about how the process is going now that the NHL movement freeze is on and he’s under the gun to select his expansion team. McPhee announced that this is the last day he’ll be working on side deals with teams, and said he would pick the final expansion roster tomorrow. There have already been reports of as many as seven deals completed with Vegas, though as McPhee said today “nothing is final until it’s final.”
Though deals to protect certain players off their own roster have likely already been hashed out, with the release of the protection lists teams are likely calling to see if they can pull off a post-draft trade with Vegas in order to get a certain player from around the league. It will be interesting to see how many players Vegas flips after the draft in order to get more selections in the upcoming entry draft, or young assets they can use to build. A player like James Neal, who is of little use to the Golden Knights on a one-year deal would likely bring back at least a first-round pick now or at next year’s trade deadline.
All eyes are on McPhee and his staff as they try and build the best organization possible in the next few days. After already seeing some excellent players go unprotected, it is starting to look like a playoff push may be in the cards for Vegas within the first few years of their existence. With Marc-Andre Fleury likely the pick from Pittsburgh, they’ll have a chance to have at least some Stanley Cup experience in the room right away. The roster will be announced during the NHL Awards on Wednesday, June 21st.
Latest On Alexander Radulov’s Free Agency
While the hockey world focuses on the expansion draft and upcoming entry draft, many fans in Montreal are turning their attention to next season and the possibility of an Alexander Radulov return to the Canadiens. The pending unrestricted free agent has been expected to re-sign with the Habs for some time, though things have gone silent in recent weeks as the team focused on other things. Today when speaking to TSN 690, Bob McKenzie explained that the two sides could still be pretty far away from each other in regards to contract length.
I’m sure that initially [Radulov] was looking for a home run; six, seven, eight years. Take your pick from one of those numbers, and I’m sure the Montreal Canadiens are saying ‘not a chance in the world we’re going any longer–we’d like two but we know that’s not possible.’
Because Vegas is in a unique position, they’ve already got [Vadim] Shipachyov the 30-year old Russian center that they signed. They don’t have cap issues, they don’t have to worry as much about the dollars and cents…they’re in a unique position to maybe give Radulov more years and more money than the Montreal Canadiens could.
Signing Radulov would mean that Vegas forfeits their selection from the Montreal Canadiens, but after dealing away Nathan Beaulieu and protecting most of their core players, it could be an easy choice for the Golden Knights. McKenzie also points out that Montreal signing Radulov even for three years would hinge quite a bit on a potential Carey Price extension. Price hits the open market next summer, and could be looking at the biggest contract of all-time among goaltenders. After adding Jonathan Drouin on a six-year deal, money could get very tight for Montreal in a hurry.
It also will hinge on what happens with Alex Galchenyuk, who is up for a new contract but may have played his final game in Montreal. There has been much speculation about a possible trade for the young forward, especially after Drouin was acquired. Paying Galchenyuk a similar $5-6MM long-term deal would essentially eat up a third of the cap space Montreal has remaining, and they still need to make at least one addition to their defense corps. Radulov may fit for next season in that scenario, but going forward would be even tighter.
Kris Russell, Karl Alzner Among First Players Linked To Vegas Free Agent Window
After yesterday’s release of the protection lists for each team, a 72-hour window opened for Vegas to make their expansion selections. With it, another window opened in which the team can speak with pending unrestricted free agents and unprotected restricted free agents. If signed before Wednesday’s deadline, Vegas would forfeit the selection from that player’s team.
As expected, the Golden Knights will be well connected to all the free agents and it has started with the mention of a pair of defenders. Pierre LeBrun of TSN reports that the Vegas front office has reached out to the Kris Russell camp, and Darren Dreger of TSN speculates that Karl Alzner will be another target. Though LeBrun is quick to point out that nothing is close with Russell, he is definitely one of the more interesting names given how clearly interested Edmonton has been in re-signing him.
The Oilers didn’t give the Golden Knights many interesting options in the draft, with most expecting a pick of Griffin Reinhart or Jujhar Khaira. Signing Russell, who in different circles has been considered both extremely effective and unbelievably overrated would give them a solid base of experience and leadership on what should be a fairly young team. The Oilers, hoping to re-sign Russell have other big names to get under contract this summer including Leon Draisaitl who will be a restricted free agent this summer.
As for Alzner, the defensive specialist from Washington has been the target of some of the same criticism as a weak possession player whose impact is more in terms of minutes played than effectiveness. Some see him as a rock that you can put on the ice for 20 minutes a night and not worry about, while others think his limited offensive upside has him projected as more of bottom-pairing player going forward. The Capitals, unable to re-sign him even if they wanted to due to cap restraints, would welcome his signing with the Golden Knights in order to protect some of their other young players.
Nate Schmidt, who showed off his elite skating ability and potential as a top-4 puck mover in the playoffs was left unprotected, while top-backup Philipp Grubauer has long been considered a potential Golden Knights’ pick. That’s not to even mention Kevin Shattenkirk, T.J. Oshie and Justin Williams, all of whom are also free agents and could be targeted by Vegas. While Alzner obviously has some ties to GM George McPhee from his days in Washington, it would seem backwards for the team to give up the chance at selecting one of the Capitals’ players just to bring him aboard.