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Extension Candidate: Bo Horvat

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One down, one to go.  That’s the situation that the Canucks find themselves in when it comes to their impact 2023 unrestricted free agents.  J.T. Miller is now off the board after signing a seven-year, $56MM extension on Friday which allows them to now turn their focus to re-signing captain Bo Horvat.

It’s telling that while Miller had been in all sorts of trade speculation in the days, weeks, and even months leading up to his eventual extension, it has been the exact opposite for Horvat.  There has long been an expectation that the two sides would work something out and discussions are ongoing according to Sportsnet’s Iain MacIntyre.  But what might a new deal look like?

2021-22

Horvat quietly is coming off a career year in the goal department, surpassing the 30-goal mark for the first time in his career.  It didn’t affect his defensive game too much as he still took a regular turn on the penalty kill, logged nearly 20 minutes per night, and won the sixth-most faceoffs in the league.  Notably, over the final six weeks of the season when Vancouver was in the midst of trying to pull off quite the second-half comeback to get into the playoffs, Horvat was better than a point-per-game player, showing an ability to step up in crucial moments.  While they ultimately fell a little short of achieving that goal, it certainly wasn’t his fault while the improved production under Bruce Boudreau creates some optimism for what’s to come.

Statistics

2021-22: 70 GP, 31 goals, 21 assists, 52 points, +3 rating, 40 PIMS, 194 shots, 57.0% faceoffs, 19:31 ATOI
Career: 572 GP, 170 goals, 196 assists, 366 points, -68 rating, 188 PIMS, 1,294 shots, 53.6% faceoffs, 18:20 ATOI

The Market

Center has always been the premium position among the three forward spots with the extra responsibilities that are always placed on a middleman.  Horvat has more than handled those challenges well and certainly isn’t the type of player that a team could think about moving to the wing.  Plain and simple, he’s a center and top centers get paid big bucks in free agency or, at least, when they become eligible for free agency.

Last season was basically a continuation of what Horvat has been in his career.  He doesn’t necessarily produce like a number one center does but with all of the other elements he brings to the table, he gets to the level of a low-end number one or a high-end number two.  There is enough of an established marketplace for players like that to get a reasonable idea of what Horvat’s next deal is going to cost.

Comparable Contracts

Sean Couturier (Philadelphia) signed an eight-year, $62MM extension ($7.75MM AAV) a little over a year ago in the same spot that Horvat is now, a year away from UFA eligibility.  From a points-per-game perspective, they’re nearly identical (.638 for Couturier, .639 for Horvat) while both players have averaged close to 20 minutes per game in recent seasons while playing in all situations.  Couturier’s top offensive years have been better than Horvat’s which is worth noting although Horvat will be beginning his next deal at 28, one year younger than Couturier.

Brayden Schenn (St. Louis) is playing on an eight-year, $52MM deal ($6.5MM AAV) that was signed back in 2019.  His five-on-five production has been quite close to Horvat over the past few seasons but it’s worth noting that he doesn’t have the same defensive responsibilities that Horvat does.  The current-day equivalent of this contract is $6.584MM and with the extra roles that Horvat has, it’s safe to pencil this contract in as the floor when it comes to extension discussions.

Kevin Hayes (Philadelphia) received a bigger contract than many expected back in 2019 when he signed for seven years and $50MM ($7.142MM AAV).  He was coming off a career-best 55 points that summer and also was an all-situations player that often was on the second line offensively like Horvat.  Since then, his production has tapered off so Horvat’s camp would likely be looking to come in higher than this rate.  From a cap percentage perspective, a deal equal to this is worth just over $7.4MM per season today.

Tomas Hertl (San Jose) signed his extension last season, one that was worth $65.1MM over eight years ($8.1375MM AAV).  He’s the same age Horvat is now and only has one more 30-goal season that Horvat does.  The two were used very similarly last season and Hertl’s career point per game average (.661) is quite close to Horvat’s.  Some feel that this was an overpayment on the part of the Sharks but that doesn’t matter for Horvat’s camp who will undoubtedly be using this deal as a comparable in negotiations.  This is the high end of the scale for where his next contract should fall.

Dylan Larkin (Detroit) is also one to watch for but we don’t know his next contract yet as he’s in the same situation as Horvat.  The two are fairly similar – Larkin is a bit more productive, Horvat more involved defensively – and whichever one doesn’t sign first will quite likely be looking at the contract of the one that does sign as a viable comparable.

Projected Contract

Based on the above comparables, something above the current equivalent of Hayes’ deal and a little below Couturier’s appears to be a reasonable sweet spot for an agreement.  That would put the AAV in the $7.5MM (or slightly higher) range and he should be able to command a max-term agreement, either an eight-year one with Vancouver or a seven-year one elsewhere.

The big question that Canucks GM Patrik Allvin will have to ponder is whether they can afford Horvat’s next deal in their cap structure.  Miller checks in at $8MM on his new deal which pushes their commitment in 2023-24 to nearly $69MM to 14 players.  The Upper Limit is only expected to go up to $83.5MM for 2024-24 so Horvat would be taking up close to 60% of their remaining space.  Fitting everyone else in would be a challenge.

Vancouver also has to keep in mind that Elias Pettersson’s qualifying offer two years from now is $8.82MM (120% of his $7.35MM cap hit).  While Pettersson has spent a lot of time on the wing, he’s also a natural center and spending over $24MM on three centers could be a luxury that they can’t afford.  That shouldn’t affect Horvat’s specific situation unless he’s willing to leave money on the table to stay but they’ll be factoring in their own cap situation in discussions with their captain over the coming weeks and months.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Vancouver Canucks Extend J.T. Miller

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After a summer of trade rumors, it seems the J.T. Miller saga has reached its conclusion. The Vancouver Canucks announced today that their star center has signed a seven-year, $56MM contract carrying an $8MM AAV.

As mentioned, this deal comes after an offseason where Miller, who was set to hit unrestricted free agency next summer, was a frequent target of all sorts of trade rumors and speculation. Last month, we covered how Miller’s representation had made it clear that they would be cutting off all contract talks once the 2022-23 season began. So, that upcoming deadline might have moved the pace of contract talks forward. The Canucks might have paid attention to what happened to the Calgary Flames with their own star forward, Johnny Gaudreau after Gaudreau took a similar stance last season and cut off extension talks once the 2021-22 season began. Gaudreau left for Columbus in the summer, and the Flames had to scramble to find a replacement as a result.

With this extension signed, the Canucks have avoided a similar fate. This deal is one of extreme significance for the Canucks. First and foremost, they have locked in their star centerman for what could end up being the rest of his playing days. Miller will be 30 when the contract begins, and by the time it finishes he could be at or near the end of his NHL career.

With that in mind, the seven-year term might concern fans of the Canucks. It’s unlikely that Miller will be worth the $8MM cap hit he’ll command when he’s past the age of 35. That being said, though, it’s not a certainty that he’ll be an ineffective player, and the expected rise of the cap could limit the damage of this deal in its later years. If Miller can age as gracefully as Claude Giroux, for example, who received a three-year deal at a $6.5MM cap hit despite turning 35 in January, then the term will be less of an issue. But he’ll need to stay in top shape in order to do so.

The benefit of this seven-year term, though, is that the cap hit of the deal is lower than some might have expected for a player of Miller’s caliber. Miller was extremely productive last season, scoring 32 goals and 99 points in 80 games. He was an elite offensive force, showcasing the ability to take over shifts and elevate the play of his linemates.

If Miller can continue to produce at around a point-per-game rate, Miller will be underpaid at an $8MM cap hit. Miller’s cap hit is lower than that of Sharks center Tomas Hertl, who has a career-high of 74 points, and identical to that of Ryan Johansen, who has crossed the 70-point plateau just once in his career. To put it simply, Miller’s market value is higher than the $8MM he’s being paid, which, at least in the short-to-medium term, is a win for the Canucks. It’s just the final few years of this deal that pose the most downside risk.

Looking at this more broadly, the contract has major implications for the Canucks franchise as a whole. This is not an extension a team signs if they are looking to re-tool or rebuild. This is an extension that a team signs when they want to capitalize on the next few years. With this extension, the Canucks have seemingly given themselves a green light to operate in a win-at-all-costs manner in the short term. For a franchise still waiting on its first Stanley Cup victory, that’s a sensible choice to make.

The challenge for the Canucks with this contract comes in terms of how it impacts the rest of GM Patrik Allvin’s roster construction. The team’s captain and second-line center, Bo Horvat, is set to hit free agency next summer. With Miller now extended, Elias Pettersson capable of playing center, and other long-term contracts already on their books for Quinn Hughes, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Conor Garland, and Ilya Mikheyev, will the Canucks be able to finalize a Horvat extension? Should they?

That’s an issue for the team to solve after next season, and perhaps the answer can come in the form of shedding their relatively highly-priced middle-of-the-lineup players such as Tanner Pearson and Jason Dickinson. For this season, the mandate for coach Bruce Boudreau is clear: win as many games as possible and try to go on a playoff run. There are those who believed the Canucks would be best served to enter into a rebuild, and with this contract, it’s clear that’s not the direction the organization will pursue.

Will it work out for them? At this point, we don’t know. But what we do know is that the Canucks have found a way to retain one of their most talented players for what could end up being the rest of his playing days.

There will be those who don’t like the cost of this contract or the term that’s attached, and that’s understandable. Retaining J.T. Miller’s services will cost the Canucks a lot of money over the next few years, and the team’s front office has chosen to accept the immense risks of that come along with that commitment. But if Allvin and team president Jim Rutherford want to give the Canucks the best possible chance of winning a Stanley Cup in the next couple of seasons, there really was no other choice they could make.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Latest On J.T. Miller, Bo Horvat

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As things currently stand, two of the Vancouver Canucks’ most important players are slated to hit unrestricted free agency. One of them, Bo Horvat, is the Canucks’ captain and heart-and-soul two-way center. The other is J.T. Miller, the Canucks’ leading scorer by a large margin and most accomplished offensive player.

The Athletic’s Thomas Drance and Rick Dhaliwal issued updates on the situations of both players today. (subscription link) For Horvat, the landscape is relatively simple. The team wants to retain its captain, and Horvat by all accounts wants to remain with the only NHL franchise he has ever played for. Drance and Dhaliwal report that there was a “sense of optimism” earlier this summer that an extension between Horvat and the Canucks would be completed relatively quickly, but that hasn’t happened yet. Now, it seems there is “somewhat less optimism than there had been in late June” that a deal will be reached shortly.

It still remains the overwhelming probability that Horvat re-signs in Vancouver, but the lack of any news on positive progress towards a new deal is notable. Horvat, 27, is an accomplished two-way center who scored a career-high 31 goals last season. If Horvat looks at Kevin Hayes’ long-term contract with the Flyers, a deal that costs over $7MM per year, and the twin $8MM AAV deals the San Jose Sharks are paying Logan Couture and Tomas Hertl, he may decide that a deal at or around $7MM AAV is what he wants on his next contract.

With many major contracts already on their books and a looming extension for Elias Pettersson due in two years’ time, it would be understandable if the Canucks are hesitant to go that far for Horvat, a great player but not a franchise centerpiece. That being said, a loss of Horvat would leave a significant hole in the Canucks’ roster, especially if the team is set on playing Pettersson as a winger moving forward.

Much of what happens with Horvat, then, could depend on the fate of Miller. With a 99-point season under his belt, Miller is in an extremely strong negotiating position. He’s been a truly elite talent as a Canuck, and likely wants to be compensated with a contract that reflects the value he’s put forth these past few seasons.

The challenge with Miller for the Canucks, then, is if he’s worth the massive contract he’s earned and, more importantly, if giving him such a lucrative extension that covers his thirties is appropriate for a team whose core base of talent is still in their early-to-mid twenties.

Drance and Dhaliwal report that the Canucks privately “continue to insist that retaining Miller is their preference.” Even so, Miller’s own preferences could throw a wrench in the possibility of him remaining in Vancouver. Miller’s agent, Brian Bartlett, told The Athletic that Miller’s camp will “opt to cut off all discussions on a new contract once the regular season commences.” Such a stance might look familiar to some fans, as it’s the route Johnny Gaudreau took this past season while negotiating with the Calgary Flames.

Gaudreau eventually left the Flames and signed elsewhere, and that could be the position the Canucks are in a year from now if they stay the current course with Miller.

So, that brings up the question that will likely serve as the major storyline for the Canucks’ season, at least until a resolution is found. Do the Canucks settle on trading Miller if an extension isn’t reached by the start of the season? Would the Canucks, who still haven’t gone through a full season with their new front office and coaching staff, keep an unextended Miller past the deadline in the hopes that he’ll boost their competitive chances?

Those are the major questions facing the Canucks so far, and the first domino could fall if an extension for Horvat is finalized before the start of the season. Whichever route the Canucks opt to go down, it’s likely that the 2022-23 season will be one of great consequence for the Canucks’ organization.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Canucks Reportedly Interested In Calvin de Haan

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The bulk of the Vancouver Canucks’ offseason work looks complete. A few new faces have been brought in, some players have departed, and a few major pending free agent situations still loom large, unlikely to be solved in the near future. But even though they’re largely ready for next season, the Canucks’ new regime led by Jim Rutherford and Patrik Allvin isn’t done looking to make tweaks to their roster, even as we near the end of August.

Per Thomas Drance and Rick Dhaliwal of The Athletic, the Canucks are “still listening on the trade market and kicking some tires on some of the unrestricted free agent talent” that’s still on the market. (subscription link) The two report that the Canucks are “among a small group of teams still in the mix” for unrestricted free agent defenseman Calvin de Haan, and that the team has made adding some extra support to its blueline the priority at this stage of the offseason. With defender Tucker Poolman’s health status uncertain, adding a proven veteran defenseman such as de Haan would be a sensible move for a Vancouver side that wants to pick up where they left off last season under coach Bruce Boudreau.

Canucks Face Challenges For Putting Micheal Ferland On In-Season LTIR

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  • Thomas Drance of The Athletic examines (subscription link) some of the challenges that the Canucks will be facing in order to place Micheal Ferland on in-season LTIR in 2022-23. While Vancouver has several waiver-exempt players, their performance bonuses make the simplest idea of papering them down for a day not practical.  Accordingly, they might have to waive some roster players late in training camp to make the finances work.  Offseason LTIR is an option but most teams prefer to avoid that route and make an in-season placement but that will be a bit of a challenge for them.

Nazem Kadri's Contract Could Serve As An Important Comparison In J.T. Miller Negotiations

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  • CHEK’s Rick Dhaliwal appeared on the Sekeres and Price podcast to discuss the impact that Nazem Kadri’s free agent deal will have on 2023 UFA and current Vancouver Canucks forward J.T. Miller. In sum, Dhaliwal told the pair, “Kadri’s agent did J.T. Miller’s agent a favor,” referencing the seven year, $49MM contract Kadri signed with the Calgary Flames. Looking a little deeper at what Dhaliwal means, Kadri is about to turn 32 years of age, coming off a career-best 87 points in 71 games, crushing his previous career-best of 61 points in 82 games back in 2016-17. If Kadri, who is a year-and-a-half older than Miller will be next summer, can secure a seven-year deal after one 87-point season, “there is no way Miller will accept anything under seven or eight years.” While there’s never been anything stopping Miller from setting that as his asking price, Kadri’s contract simply helps Miller make his own case for at least the same, if not a better contract. Miller is coming off his own career-best of 99 points in 80 games, but also boasts an impressive 46 points in 53 games and 72 points in 69 games the two seasons prior. Still, it will be up to Miller to have another stellar performance like he did this year if he wants to easily secure a contract greater than Kadri’s.

Snapshots: Colton, IIHF, 2026 WJC, Rutherford

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The Tampa Bay Lightning’s incredible 2021 Stanley Cup run gave Ross Colton his first Stanley Cup in just his first try, however it wasn’t the rookie’s first time at a Stanley Cup Final. The New Jersey native grew up a huge fan of the New Jersey Devils, and in speaking with NJ.com’s Ryan Novozinsky, discussed his fandom, which included attending every home game of the Devils’ 2012 run to the Stanley Cup Finals. When approached with the idea of playing for his hometown team one day, Colton said “[t]hat would obviously be so cool.”

As much as the prospect of a New Jersey native and Devils fan playing for the team would be, Colton did pump the brakes on the narrative a bit when speaking to NHL.com’s Adam Kimelman, saying he would like to spend his entire career with Tampa Bay, but acknowledged the business-end of the sport, with players needing to be paid and teams having to conform to the salary cap. Colton is entering the second year of a two-year, $1.125MM AAV contract that will leave him a RFA for one more year ahead of his 2024 UFA status. Considering Tampa’s cap issues over the past few seasons, the gritty Colton could be a luxury they can’t afford, however the organization has shown a willingness to get creative in order to keep as much of their core as they are financially able to.

  • Speaking on TSN, and relayed by The Athletic’s Corey Pronman, IIHF President Luc Tardif said Belarus and Russia will be suspended for the next year, and that decisions on whether to permit the countries to participate in IIHF events will be made year-by-year going forward. Pronman adds that this “next year” would likely refer more specifically to the 2022-23 hockey season. Being suspended for at least that length will cost the countries the ability to participate in IIHF-sanctioned events, including most notably the World Junior Championships and the World Championships. The two countries were suspended by the IIHF in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine earlier this year.
  • Sticking with the topic of IIHF tournaments, TSN’s Gord Miller reports that the 2026 World Juniors will be held in the United States. Miller adds that a likely destination would be Las Vegas, Nevada, a location he notes was a dream of the late Director of USA Hockey, Jim Johansson. Putting the tournament in Las Vegas would be a feat not only for USA Hockey, but the NHL, whose expansion into the area, as well as other warm climates, was met with skepticism. A successful 2026 tournament in Las Vegas, should it happen, would no doubt be a testament to the growth and success of ice hockey throughout North America and could lead to continued growth and exploration in other non-traditional markets.
  • Since abruptly stepping away from his duties as General Manager of the Pittsburgh Penguins just a few games into the 2020-21 season, fans and media alike have been trying to figure out what exactly made Jim Rutherford leave the organization so suddenly. Many speculated that his departure had to do with disagreements over the direction of the team, but as the now-Canucks executive told Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, that was not the case. Carefully wording his response, Rutherford explained that when the COVID-19 pandemic hit, being largely confined to his home took a toll on him, which left him without the necessary mental toughness to handle his duties. He added that he didn’t believe he necessarily had any mental health issues, but that things he could generally shake off as typical of the job, began to stick with him. It’s an interesting response, and not as dramatic as a feud with upper management like many had thought, but is surely relatable to the experience of many during the height of the pandemic. As much as owners, executives, coaches, and players may feel super-human or not-so-tangible to fans, Rutherford’s experience shows their experiences are just as human as that of their fans.

Canucks Have Shown Interest In Evan Rodrigues

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With training camps now less than a month away, teams will be calling around to the remaining unrestricted free agents to see if their asking price has dropped.  It appears that the Canucks are doing that with Evan Rodrigues as Rick Dhaliwal of CHEK and The Athletic reported in an appearance on Sekeres and Price (audio link) that Vancouver is “poking around” on the forward.

The 29-year-old is coming off a career season with Pittsburgh that saw him put up 19 goals and 24 assists while playing in all 82 games for the first time.  His ice time jumped up to nearly 16 minutes per game and he played down the middle and on the wing.  That type of versatility is always appealing to teams.

So, why hasn’t his market materialized this summer?  Rodrigues’ splits from last season are likely playing a role in that.  Of the 43 points he had, 30 came in the first half of the year and only 13 in the second half.  The latter is more in line with his career numbers where he has been more of a depth forward so it’s not surprising that teams aren’t coming in overly high with offers, especially with flexibility at a premium.

Rodrigues ranked 24th on our Top 50 UFA list earlier this summer with a projected contract of three years at $3MM per season.  At this point, it’s quite unlikely he’ll command that type of money or term so a one-year deal in an optimal situation with the hopes of generating a stronger market next summer might be the next best thing.

However, is Vancouver the most optimal spot for Rodrigues?  They’ve added some depth on the wings this summer with Ilya Mikheyev and Andrei Kuzmenko and while Rodrigues could plausibly slide in down the middle when injuries strike, it’s not a position he has played full-time since the 2018-19 campaign.  He could fit on the third line if they were comfortable deploying him as a center; otherwise, Rodrigues would likely be in a depth role with Vancouver which is what he should be trying to avoid.  There’s still time for Rodrigues to be selective as he looks to find a home for next season but if nothing else, Vancouver would represent a fallback plan if the more desirable situations don’t present themselves.

Tucker Poolman’s Health Status Still Uncertain

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After signing a four-year, $10MM contract with the Vancouver Canucks last offseason, defenseman Tucker Poolman was limited to just 40 games in his first campaign in British Columbia. Dealing with migraines and post-concussion symptoms throughout the season, Poolman had just three points all year and played just 17 minutes per game.

There is some optimism on Poolman’s health status, though, although it remains to be seen whether or not he’s healthy enough to play once the high-intensity training camp environment begins. His agent, Dean Grillo, noted to The Province’s Ben Kuzma that Poolman has indeed been training and skating all offseason, slowly trying to work his way back up to game readiness without inducing a recurrence of concussion symptoms.

As Kuzma notes, headaches and migraines have been a persistent issue for Poolman throughout his career, with various degrees of linkage to concussions. With other injuries such as major shoulder surgery and shot-blocking-related ailments, the 29-year-old Poolman has faced a lot of adversity in his NHL career.

If Poolman can’t return to start the season, expect Kyle Burroughs to get some more reps in the NHL as a third-pairing, defensive-minded body. Burroughs had five points in 42 games last season with Vancouver.

Latest On Michael DiPietro

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The Vancouver Canucks recently gave young netminder Michael DiPietro and his agent Darren Ferris permission to seek a trade, and Rick Dhaliwal of CHEK TV reports that one source believes that there is interest and a deal that “could make sense” for the Canucks.

DiPietro, 23, was a third-round pick of the Canucks in 2017 and quickly became a top goaltending prospect, despite his relatively small stature. He was included as the third goaltender for Canada at the 2018 World Championship before ever playing professional hockey and earned his first NHL minutes while still playing in the OHL as an emergency call-up.

It was his performance at the 2019 World Juniors that vaulted him to “goaltender of the future” status though, as Canucks fans got to see him dominate to the tune of a .952 save percentage. He would join the AHL affiliate the following year and put up decent numbers, but now a few years later and his path to NHL relevance is basically completely blocked.

With Thatcher Demko entrenched as the Vancouver starter, Spencer Martin signed to a cheap deal as the backup, and Collin Delia in place as a viable third-string option, it’s hard to see DiPietro ever getting the net for the Canucks. Thus the trade request and search, though general manager Patrik Allvin is not under much pressure to make a deal.

Not only is he under contract for the upcoming season but DiPietro is also still waiver-exempt this year, meaning he can be sent down without issue. It’s a tough spot for a netminder who hasn’t quite taken the step forward that many expected, and posted just a .901 save percentage in 34 appearances for Abbotsford last season. There is obviously potential there but at this point in the summer, most teams already have their NHL and AHL tandems in place. Expending an asset to acquire DiPietro might seem unnecessary, when he may well go unqualified by the Canucks next summer, if he’s still with the organization.

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