Update On This Year’s August 15 Free Agents
Most NHL free agent business is dealt with in the early summer months. There is one important date later each year, however. August 15 marks the date when NHL teams lose their exclusive signing rights to most college-drafted players if they’ve graduated (or completed without graduating) college and are not yet signed to an entry-level contract.
Earlier this month, we published a list of players slated to hit the UFA market yesterday if not signed to an ELC within the coming days. However, the guidelines the NHL uses to determine a college graduate are some of the most complex sets of rules relating to contractual obligations in pro sports. That means it’s often impossible to glean a full list of players whose rights have expired (or not expired) until after the August 15 deadline has passed.
This year was no different, as CapFriendly issued multiple updates today on their X account regarding the list of August 15 free agents they’d made public earlier in the month. Three players who were slated to expire actually remained on their team’s reserve list: Calgary Flames 2018 fourth-round pick F Demetrios Koumontzis, Ottawa Senators 2018 seventh-round pick F Jakov Novak, and Senators 2018 second-round pick D Jonny Tychonick.
On the flip side, 12 players they expected to remain on teams’ reserve lists hit the free-agent market yesterday. With that in mind, we have a revised, accurate list of players who became unrestricted free agents yesterday. Asterisked players were not originally expected to come off their team’s reserve list.
Anaheim Ducks
*F Trevor Janicke (2019 fifth round, 132nd overall)
Arizona Coyotes
F John Farinacci (2019 third round, 76th overall)
*F Anthony Romano (2019 sixth round, 176th overall)
Boston Bruins
*D Dustyn McFaul (2018 sixth round, 181st overall)
Calgary Flames
*F Joshua Nodler (2019 fifth round, 150th overall)
Carolina Hurricanes
F Kevin Wall (2019 sixth round, 181st overall)
Chicago Blackhawks
F Jake Wise (2018 third round, 69th overall)
Colorado Avalanche
*F Matt Stienburg (2019 third round, 63rd overall)
Columbus Blue Jackets
D Robbie Stucker (2017 seventh round, 210th overall)
Detroit Red Wings
F Robert Mastrosimone (2019 second round, 54th overall)
*F Ethan Phillips (2019 fourth round, 97th overall)
Edmonton Oilers
F Skyler Brind’Amour (2017 sixth round, 177th overall)
Minnesota Wild
*D Marshall Warren (2019 sixth round, 166th overall)
New Jersey Devils
*D Case McCarthy (2019 fourth round, 118th overall)
*F Patrick Moynihan (2019 sixth round, 158th overall)
New York Islanders
D Christian Krygier (2018 seventh round, 196th overall)
F Jacob Pivonka (2018 fourth round, 103rd overall)
New York Rangers
*F Eric Ciccolini (2019 seventh round, 205th overall)
*F Riley Hughes (2018 seventh round, 216th overall)
Ottawa Senators
*F Luke Loheit (2018 seventh round, 194th overall)
Philadelphia Flyers
F Jay O’Brien (2018 first round, 19th overall)
San Jose Sharks
D Arvid Henrikson (2016 seventh round, 187th overall) Originally drafted by the Montreal Canadiens
Toronto Maple Leafs
D Ryan O’Connell (2017 seventh round, 203rd overall)
Winnipeg Jets
G Jared Moe (2018 sixth round, 184th overall)
Of the list above, Krygier and Pivonka are remaining in the Islanders organization on confirmed AHL contracts for 2023-24, although they remain eligible to sign with another NHL team should one come calling. All others are either returning to school for 2023-24, have contracts signed in other leagues, or are not signed for next season.
Notably, this is the official confirmation that the Flyers’ exclusive signing rights of O’Brien have lapsed. As compensation for not signing a first-round pick to their entry-level contract, the Flyers will receive a compensatory second-round pick from the league in the 2024 NHL Draft.
Matt Dumba's Signing Bonus Is Payable In April
It took more than a month for Matt Dumba to find a new home before inking a one-year, $3.9MM deal with Arizona. PHNX Sports’ Craig Morgan relays an interesting wrinkle in the contract – the $1.15MM signing bonus he received is actually payable on April 15th, not right away. It has already been speculated that Dumba could be a trade candidate if the Coyotes aren’t in the playoff picture by then. The structure of this agreement means that whoever gets him at the deadline in that scenario would actually be the one responsible for paying out the $1.15MM bonus. There wouldn’t be any additional cap charge for the acquiring team but the cash outlay to acquire Dumba as a midseason rental will be considerably more than it might have seemed at first glance.
Elsewhere around the NHL:
- In a recent appearance on the NHL Network (video link), Hurricanes GM Don Waddell indicated that winger Andrei Svechnikov is on schedule if not slightly ahead as he works his way back from ACL surgery. The 23-year-old had surgery back in mid-March, a procedure that typically carries a recovery time of six-to-seven months. Despite the positive news, Waddell stopped short of confirming that Svechnikov will be available on opening night but if that’s not the case, he shouldn’t be out much longer which will give Carolina a big boost after missing one of their top wingers down the stretch and in the playoffs.
- Earlier this week, Martin Jones signed with Toronto to play what’s likely to be a third-string role. Jaroslav Halak doesn’t appear to be interested in that, telling Tomas Prokop of Dennik Sport that it’s a role he isn’t looking to fill and is focused on trying to land a contract with a team that would give him the backup spot. The 38-year-old put up a 2.72 GAA with a .903 SV% in 25 games with the Rangers last season but sits five wins shy of 300 for his career, a milestone Halak acknowledged that he’d like to reach in 2023-24.
Kerfoot's Reasoning Behind Picking The Coyotes
During the Vegas Golden Knights run to their first Stanley Cup championship in franchise history, forward Jonathan Marchessault played a vital role in that effort. Finishing as the Conn Smythe Trophy winner of the 2022-23 Stanley Cup playoffs, Marchessault has cemented himself as a fan and locker room favorite in Vegas. With one year remaining on his current contract with the club, Marchessault should be one of the more important extension candidates for the team.
In an interview with TVA Sports, Marchessault spoke on extension talks, and also his relationship with head coach Bruce Cassidy. In his article on this relationship, Chris Gawlik of VegasHockeyNow reports a quote from Marchessault saying, “It hasn’t always been the rainbow and the good weather between us. We got into each other a couple of times, on the bench, during games, during the playoffs. But I think he wanted the best out of me and we managed to be able to work together“. Although interesting, it is hardly a surprising take from Marchessault, as Cassidy was regularly noted as an incredibly difficult coach to play for during his time with the Boston Bruins.
On the extension front, it does not sound like anything is close between the two parties. Marchessault said, “There are no negotiations that have been done. I know that sometimes the Golden Knights like to take their time with that. We will see what it will give“. Over the years, the Knights have been known to move some of their veteran original members, such as Reilly Smith and Marc-Andre Fleury, and if an extension cannot be agreed upon at a reasonable price for both player and team, Vegas may need to make another difficult decision with Marchessault this upcoming season.
Other snapshots:
- Speaking with the new President of Hockey Operations for the Philadelphia Flyers, Keith Jones, Adam Kimelman of the NHL reports that Jones firmly believes that the playing days of defenseman Ryan Ellis are over. Due to a back injury, Ellis has only been able to suit up in four games for the Flyers during the 2021-22 season and missed the entirety of last year. Ellis still has four years and $25MM remaining on his current contract and will spend the rest of that time on LTIR if his contract is not moved off the team before then.
- One of the several signings made by the Arizona Coyotes this offseason, Alexander Kerfoot is more than excited to get started with his new club. Speaking with Patrick Brown of the NHL, Kerfoot shed some light on his choosing Arizona over other offers saying, “It just feels like they’re in a different spot now. It feels like they’re trying to take the next step. Being part of that change and helping grow the culture is fun to be a part of. Things are trending really well for this group, and I’m happy to be part of it“. It is hard to envision the Coyotes returning to the playoffs anytime within the next two years, but they have set themselves up nicely by developing their core players and bringing in solid auxiliary pieces.
Arizona Coyotes Intend To Purchase Land In Mesa For New Arena
Today is a joyous day for some, and for others, a “here we go again” day – depending on how you feel about the Arizona Coyotes. Their second effort to secure a long-term home in the Phoenix metropolitan area took a significant step today, with the Coyotes announcing they’ve submitted a letter of intent to purchase a parcel of land in Mesa, Arizona, on which to build an arena and entertainment district similar to the team’s failed plan in Tempe, which did not pass a public referendum.
The release didn’t specify exactly where the parcel of land is located, however. It’s unclear whether the letter of intent is in reference to the abandoned Fiesta Mall, which the Coyotes have had reported interest in as far back as May. PHNX Sports’ Craig Morgan reported last night that a number of other potential sites in Mesa had proved “problematic” – which could also include Fiesta Mall.
It is, however, important to note that this does not solely pave the way toward a purchase and new arena on the site in question today. The Coyotes are still free to explore other options in the Phoenix metro area, which they clearly plan to do with haste as the uncertainty around their playing home drags on. Morgan also says the team is considering sites in Phoenix proper, as well as Scottsdale, but there’s still a “long way to go” until a final deal is reached.
List Of Players Expected To Start 2023-24 On LTIR
We’re at the point in the summer where most major signings are complete, meaning only a handful of free agents left on the market could still command over the maximum buriable threshold of $1.15MM per year on their next contract. That means financial pictures are mostly set league-wide, and general managers can now focus more on the arduous task of salary cap management.
For many teams nowadays, long-term injured reserve (LTIR) is an important tool in helping teams keep below the salary cap’s Upper Limit, which is set at $83.5MM for 2023-24. It’s not as straightforward as it seems at first glance, though. Placing a player on LTIR does not eliminate their cap hit from the team’s books until they’re activated again. Instead, a team only gains cap relief if they exceed the Upper Limit, and the specific amount of relief received depends on the team’s cap situation on the day they place a player on LTIR. A more detailed explanation of how LTIR works can be found on CapFriendly.
All LTIR situations are not created equal. To be eligible for LTIR, a player must miss at least ten games or 24 days of action. However, they don’t need to be placed on LTIR if they’re projected to miss more than that amount of time. Oftentimes, a team operating far below the Upper Limit that won’t need any relief will simply keep the player on standard injured reserve, especially if they’re relying on an injured player’s cap hit to stay above the Lower Limit (set at $61.7MM next season).
With that said, here is a list of players who are projected to meet the injury requirements for LTIR to start 2023-24:
Atlantic Division
Buffalo Sabres – Jack Quinn
This offseason was a tough break for the young Quinn, who sustained an Achilles injury during offseason training in June and is expected to be out of the lineup through Thanksgiving. While eligible, he’s unlikely to actually be placed on LTIR. He’s still on his entry-level contract and carries a marginal cap hit of $863K, making a move extremely inconsequential to the Sabres, who CapFriendly projects with over $6MM in space.
Florida Panthers – Aaron Ekblad, Brandon Montour
The Panthers are set to begin the season without the services of their top two defensemen, thanks to shoulder injuries sustained and exacerbated during their run to the 2023 Stanley Cup Final. Combined, the players carry a rather significant $11MM cap hit, which should give the Panthers some season-opening flexibility. Ekblad’s expected to miss more time than Montour, but neither is expected to miss the whole season – both should be back in the fold by the time the calendar flips to 2024. CapFriendly currently projects the Panthers dipping into LTIR relief by $1.175MM to start the season.
Montreal Canadiens – Carey Price
The team’s legendary netminder isn’t expected to play again after a knee injury, and he hasn’t suited up since the end of the 2021-22 campaign. He’ll likely spend the last three seasons of his contract (carrying a $10.5MM cap hit) on LTIR. As we covered earlier in the week, Montreal is in a bit of a no man’s land with Price’s contract. They’ll likely either look to shed salary to get under the Upper Limit entirely (which they currently sit around $5MM over) or add money to maximize’s Price’s LTIR relief, which they could then weaponize in-season to be a cap broker for trades.
Tampa Bay Lightning – Brent Seabrook
Like Price, Seabrook will be on LTIR for the remainder of his $6.875MM cap hit contract, which expires next summer. Acquired from the Chicago Blackhawks after his injury made it clear he wouldn’t play again, Seabrook has provided additional options for cap flexibility for the Lightning over the last two seasons. Tampa is expected to use close to all of Seabrook’s potential relief to stay compliant throughout the season.
Toronto Maple Leafs – Jake Muzzin, Matt Murray
While not confirmed, Muzzin’s playing future remains in serious doubt after sustaining a cervical spine fracture at the beginning of last season. No recent update has been issued on his recovery, and he’s expected to miss the entire 2023-24 campaign and will spend the final year of his contract on LTIR. Murray’s situation is shrouded in much more mystery, however. The team announced last month he’d begin next season on LTIR, but no specific details of his injury were confirmed, and no timetable was issued for a potential return. Murray missed significant time last season with a concussion and an adductor injury.
Metropolitan Division
Philadelphia Flyers – Ryan Ellis
Forwards Cam Atkinson and Sean Couturier are expected to return to the lineup after missing all of last season with injuries, but the same can’t be said for Ryan Ellis. President of hockey operations Keith Jones said a few days ago that Ellis is unlikely to “be able to continue his playing career because of a torn psoas muscle in his back.” Ellis played just four games for the Flyers after they acquired him from the Nashville Predators in 2021 before sustaining the career-ending injury.
Washington Capitals – Max Pacioretty
Pacioretty’s timeline for a return after sustaining back-to-back Achilles injuries isn’t clear, but he likely won’t be available to the team to start the season and should meet the requirements for LTIR. The financial circumstances surrounding the potential relief will be tricky to navigate given the performance bonuses included in his contract, however. Pacioretty should be joining the Capitals after signing a one-year deal last month, sometime in November or December if everything goes well in his recovery.
Central Division
Arizona Coyotes – Jakub Voracek, Shea Weber, Bryan Little
All three are players acquired by the Coyotes for the express consideration of helping them stay above the cap floor – which they are now far above after being big players on the free-agent market this summer. Nonetheless, all three are done with their NHL careers due to various injuries and will remain members of the Coyotes organization by contract only.
Colorado Avalanche – Gabriel Landeskog
Colorado will be without their captain for a second straight season after the winger underwent a cartilage transplant on his right knee this summer. Landeskog hasn’t played since hoisting the Stanley Cup in 2022, a playoff run during which he played through a knee injury. He’s signed through 2029, and there’s still the potential he plays again, although it won’t be anytime soon.
Pacific Division
Anaheim Ducks – Isac Lundeström
Lundeström projects to be on the shelf through next January after sustaining an Achilles injury during offseason training in Sweden. Given the Ducks are far from the Upper Limit, and Lundeström carries just a $1.8MM cap hit, Anaheim could keep him on standard injured reserve for the duration of his absence.
Vegas Golden Knights – Robin Lehner
All has been quiet on Lehner’s health after he missed all of last season. The All-Star-caliber netminder had double hip surgery last summer, keeping him out for the entire 2022-23 campaign. He was not around the team at all during their run to the 2023 Stanley Cup, and the team has issued no updates on his recovery since undergoing the surgery last summer. Without any indication that he’s close to a return, Lehner closes out our list.
Arizona Coyotes Sign Matt Dumba
Aug 7, 11:02 am: The Coyotes have officially announced the deal, bringing Dumba to the desert on a one-year pact.
Aug 6, 12:33 pm: PHNX Sports’ Craig Morgan later reported the actual cap hit of Dumba’s deal will be $3.9MM.
Aug 6, 12:09 pm: The Arizona Coyotes are closing in on a one-year, $4MM contract with UFA defenseman Matt Dumba, according to Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman.
Dumba, 29, once looked to be on track to become a bonafide top-pairing defender after notching 50 points in 82 games with the Minnesota Wild at just 23 years old in 2017-18. After tearing his pectoral muscle 32 games into the 2018-19 campaign, though, Dumba’s production and all-around play have dipped significantly. It’s led to Dumba’s name appearing in trade rumors throughout the past few seasons, but the Wild never did move him, opting to let him walk as a free agent instead.
Things came to a head in 2022-23, which was arguably Dumba’s worst season of his NHL career to date. His four goals, 14 points, and -8 rating were all career lows for a full season, despite still receiving significant minutes at 21:17 per game. He posted a sub-zero relative Corsi for at even strength for the second straight campaign, suggesting his effectiveness in possession has waned as well. He’s posted solid results when utilized on the penalty kill, however. His past high-end production does suggest he has the raw skill to have somewhat of a return to form with a fresh start, too.
That’s what the Coyotes are banking on here, as PHNX Sports’ Craig Morgan reports they’ve been pursuing Dumba since free agency opened on July 1. With all other options exhausted, Dumba likely agreed to the one-year pact in hopes of rebuilding his value to earn a longer-term commitment next summer.
He also provides a type of player the Coyotes don’t have – a veteran defenseman with experience playing top-four minutes. Arizona has a forward corps that’s bordering on competitiveness now, but their defense is undoubtedly their biggest weakness as they attempt to turn the corner in their years-long rebuild. 23-year-old J.J. Moser, who was drafted 60th overall just two years ago, is the only defender on their team to average over 20 minutes per game last season. Moser could very well end up as Dumba’s defense partner to open the season as the Coyotes’ top pairing.
After terminating Jean-Sebastien Dea‘s contract, the Coyotes will again be at 49 out of the maximum 50 contracts after signing Dumba. The 50th spot is reserved for young forward Jan Jenik, who remains a restricted free agent and does not have a contract for next season.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Coyotes Nearing Extension With Andre Tourigny
There has been mutual interest between the Coyotes and head coach Andre Tourigny about a possible contract extension. It appears that the deal is basically in place as PHNX Sports’ Craig Morgan reports (video link) that both the term and money of an extension have been agreed upon. At this point, the delay in announcing is tied to Tourigny’s desire to get his assistant coaches new deals as well.
Those assistants would be John Madden and Mario Duhamel along with goalie coach Corey Schwab. Blaine Forsythe is also a part of Tourigny’s staff for the upcoming season but he was hired less than a month ago so his contract has already been taken care of.
The 49-year-old has been the bench boss for Arizona for the past two years and while his 53-90-21 record isn’t particularly exciting on the surface, the Coyotes are certainly in the middle of a rebuild. To their credit, they’ve been a fairly competitive squad most nights in spite of the fact they haven’t iced the more talented team in many of them. Tourigny has received plenty of praise for how his team has performed while establishing a positive team culture which helped entice veterans Nick Bjugstad and Troy Stecher to return after being moved as rental players at the trade deadline.
Tourigny is already under contract for the upcoming season so there is no immediate rush to get something done. However, Morgan suggests that everything should be in place before the Coyotes travel to Australia to take on Los Angeles in a pair of exhibition games later this month.
Coyotes Place Jean-Sebastien Dea On Unconditional Waivers
The Coyotes are parting ways with one of their minor league veterans as CapFriendly reports (Twitter link) that they have placed center Jean-Sebastien Dea on unconditional waivers for the purpose of terminating the final year of his contract. He is the only player on waivers today.
The 29-year-old has been a productive player in the AHL throughout his career. Last season, he finished third in scoring with AHL Tucson, notching 23 goals and 27 assists in 67 games. That helped earn him four appearances with Arizona, the most single-season games he had played at the top level since 2020-21.
For his career, Dea has played in 517 career AHL games spanning 11 seasons, recording 153 goals and 188 assists. However, his NHL time has been limited as he has just 37 appearances with four different organizations where production has been much harder to come by as he has just five goals and two helpers to his name.
Dea had one year left on his contract which paid $775K in the NHL and had a guaranteed salary of $300K in the minors that he will be walking away from; Arizona will have no lingering cap charge. TVA Sports’ Renaud Lavoie adds (Twitter link) that Dea requested his release to pursue an opportunity in Europe. Once Dea clears waivers on Sunday, the Coyotes will be free to terminate his deal, making him a free agent and lowering their number of contracts to 47 out of the limit of 50.
Coyotes, Jack McBain Reach Pre-Arbitration Settlement
The Arizona Coyotes and young center Jack McBain have reached a two-year settlement ahead of their scheduled arbitration hearing today, according to a team release. The deal earns him $1.6MM per season, per Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman.
This settlement is a win for the Coyotes, who get the two-year contract they desired and a cap hit below the midpoint of the team and player filings submitted Friday before today’s planned hearing. The Coyotes had filed for a two-year, $1.2MM AAV deal, while McBain filed for a one-year, $2.25MM contract, putting the salary midpoint at $1.725MM.
McBain, 23, brings an intriguing blend of size and two-way potential to the bottom of the Coyotes’ lineup. Standing at 6-foot-4 and 218 pounds, Arizona acquired McBain’s signing rights from the Minnesota Wild in March 2022 after McBain informed the Wild he wouldn’t be signing with them after finishing his collegiate career at Boston College.
The Toronto-born center had a ten-game stint with the Coyotes to end the 2021-22 campaign in which he didn’t look entirely out of place, recording two goals and adding an assist on the heels of a point-per-game season in college and an Olympic appearance for Canada. That late-season experience in the NHL gave him a leg up heading into 2022-23, where he played in all 82 games as a rookie and finished 12th on the team in points with 26 and eighth in goals with 12.
Arizona now has a bit of a logjam at center, though, with youngsters Barrett Hayton and Logan Cooley and veterans Nick Bjugstad and Travis Boyd, meaning McBain is likely once again slated for a fourth-line role next season, potentially even on the wing. He did post a somewhat subpar faceoff win rate of 44% last season, although the whole team wasn’t adept in that department – only Hayton posted a win rate higher than 50% out of the team’s four everyday centers.
CapFriendly has not registered McBain’s deal at the time of writing, but once it is, Arizona will have roughly $7.15MM in cap space with a full roster of 23 players, per their projection.
As PHNX Sports’ Craig Morgan points out, it’s also worth noting that the Coyotes are now in a rather tricky position regarding their total registered contracts within the organization. They’re now at 49 out of the 50-contract maximum and still have restricted free agent Jan Jeník to sign to a deal, which, if he’s signed, would leave them without the ability to make any player acquisitions without getting rid of a contract (e.g., waiver claims, free agent signings).
McBain will again be a restricted free agent with arbitration rights when his new contract expires in 2025.
PHNX Sports’ Craig Morgan was the first to report the two sides were close to a settlement.
Arbitration Breakdown: Jack McBain
Just a few arbitration cases remain, as the last day of hearings is slated for August 4. One player who will learn his financial fate before then is Arizona Coyotes forward Jack McBain, whose hearing is slated for Sunday along with Boston Bruins netminder Jeremy Swayman. The two sides have until the start of the hearing to reach an agreement, although PHNX Sports’ Craig Morgan reported earlier this month the two sides weren’t close to a deal.
Filings
Team: $1.2MM cap hit (two years)
Player: $2.25MM cap hit (one year)
Midpoint: $1.725MM cap hit
(via Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman)
The Numbers
Despite being just 23 years old, this isn’t the first time McBain’s been in some contract turmoil with an NHL team. Drafted by the Minnesota Wild in the third round of the 2018 NHL Draft, the team was forced to trade his signing rights after a strong senior season at Boston College after McBain informed them he wouldn’t sign. The Coyotes picked him up at the end of last season via trade and immediately signed him to an entry-level contract, providing McBain with a clearer path to NHL ice than in Minnesota.
The decision to sign with Arizona proved fruitful for McBain out of the gate, who played in all 82 games for the Coyotes in his first full NHL season. While he played bottom-six minutes and didn’t post strong advanced numbers, he had some promising production on the scoresheet with 12 goals, 14 assists and 26 points. He did, however, get eaten alive in the faceoff dot, posting just a 44% win rate. That’s not uncommon for a rookie center, however.
The point totals are solid when you consider his most common linemates were enforcer Liam O’Brien and bottom-six grinder Christian Fischer, not exactly players who have had sustained offensive success at the NHL level. Consider every single one of McBain’s points came at even strength, and he has a strong case to see a bump in minutes next season. After the team added Alexander Kerfoot, Jason Zucker and Nick Bjugstad in free agency and Logan Cooley via entry-level contract, however, McBain could reprise a fourth-line role in 2023-24.
It’s likely why the Coyotes have gone with a rather low filing on a two-year deal, especially considering some of his advanced numbers suggest a sophomore slump may be in the cards. However, there is still a lot to like about McBain as a player, even if many of those positives still revolve around his upside. Projected as a two-way talent, the Coyotes will rely on him to leverage his 6-foot-3, 201-pound frame more often to make plays on both sides of the puck. That’s not to say he shied away from physicality – his 64 penalty minutes ranked third on the team behind O’Brien and defenseman Josh Brown. Still, the Coyotes remain wary of sinking too much into a player that may not see more than a 4C role as their forward group fills out.
2022-23 Stats: 82 GP, 12-14-26, -8, 64 PIMs, 85 shots, 13:59 ATOI, 40.1 CF%, 44.0 FOW%
Career Stats: 92 GP, 14-15-29, -14, 70 PIMs, 98 shots, 14:00 ATOI, 40.3 CF%, 42.9 FOW%
Potential Comparables
Comparable contracts are restricted to those signed within restricted free agency which means UFA deals and entry-level pacts are ineligible to be used. The contracts below fit within those parameters. Player salaries also fall within the parameters of the submitted numbers by both sides of McBain’s negotiation.
Barrett Hayton (Arizona Coyotes) – If you’re trying to find a player with similar age and production to McBain at this point in time, you don’t need to look very far. Hayton signed a two-year, $1.775MM deal with the Coyotes late last summer after failing to post top-six caliber numbers throughout three seasons and 94 games in the desert. While McBain doesn’t carry the same potential as Hayton (who did have a nice campaign in 2022-23) and is a few years older, it does warrant consideration and will likely be used in-house as a comparable during the arbitration hearing. The offensive production at the time of signing is similar, and it’s a deal quite close to the midpoint of the two filings.
Isac Lundeström (Anaheim Ducks) – This one is likely a better fit for McBain in terms of age and potential, and they’re both projected to be relied upon as defensively responsible threats down the middle long term. An arbitrator awarded Lundeström a two-year deal worth $1.8MM per season last summer, also making this a slightly better direct arbitration comparable. At the time of signing, Lundeström had slightly more NHL experience at 151 games played but produced at a similar offensive clip, posting 22 goals and 44 points in that span. Both players have yet to hit their defensive potential.
Projection
The gap between the two filings isn’t terribly wide at just over $1MM in difference, nor will an arbitrator decision be a significant factor in the team’s salary cap situation. It’s likely to be one of the least consequential cases to be decided via arbitration this summer, but that doesn’t mean it’s not worth discussion.
The comparables outlined and scoring numbers produced by McBain generate a strong argument for an arbitrator to side slightly north of the $1.725MM midpoint, but not by much. It is likely, however, that the arbitrator award will be a two-year deal based on McBain’s best comparables. Look for a two-year award close to, but not north of, the $2MM mark when the decision gets announced on Tuesday.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.