Lightning Rumors

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Tampa Bay Lightning

September 9, 2021 at 9:00 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 3 Comments

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2021-22 season. This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Current Cap Hit: $88,365,955 (over the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

None projected to play with some regularity at the NHL level this coming season.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

G Brian Elliott ($900K, UFA)
F Mathieu Joseph ($737.5K, RFA)
F Pat Maroon ($900K, UFA)
F Ondrej Palat ($5.3MM, UFA)
D Jan Rutta ($1.3MM, UFA)

After a few quieter years, Palat had a strong bounce-back campaign in 2020-21, finishing second in team scoring and producing at a top-line rate for the first time in a while. That made him a viable candidate for Seattle to pick in expansion although they opted for Yanni Gourde instead. Palat will be 31 when he signs his next deal which means a long-term pact is likely off the table but a medium-term one around this is likely. If he wants to stick around, GM Julien BriseBois may push for something a little lower. Maroon has signed for cheap the last few years and as long as he has a chance to win, he’ll probably keep taking those types of contracts. If not, that spot will be filled by someone else willing to play for close to the minimum. Joseph stands out as a viable offer sheet candidate next summer; assuming he has a good season, it’s unlikely they’ll be able to afford to keep him and re-sign Palat. If a team thinks he’s worthy of a bigger role and wants to pay him for it, that could put the Lightning in a bit of a bind.

Rutta has been a serviceable player on the third pairing since joining them in 2019 and if that continues, he could be in line for a small raise. That said, this feels like a spot for Tampa to try to go a little cheaper to free up some flexibility.

Last year was a tough one for Elliott in Philadelphia which significantly hurt his value heading into free agency. That, combined with Tampa Bay needing a cheap replacement for Curtis McElhinney, made for a good combination here. At this stage of his career, he’ll be going year-to-year on his next contracts so how he fares this season will determine if he has a chance of getting back towards that higher echelon of backups in terms of salary.

Two Years Remaining

F Pierre-Edouard Bellemare ($1MM, UFA)
D Erik Cernak ($2.95MM, RFA)
F Anthony Cirelli ($4.8MM, RFA)
F Ross Colton ($1.125MM, RFA)
D Cal Foote ($850K, RFA)
F Alex Killorn ($4.45MM, UFA)
F Corey Perry ($1MM, UFA)
D Mikhail Sergachev ($4.8MM, RFA)

Things may not have looked too bad after the last group but that starts to change here with several young players expiring after this time. Cirelli is coming off a quiet year but produced at a much better level the previous two seasons. Even if not, his qualifying offer will check in at $5.76MM (120% of his AAV) so a raise is coming. Killorn has been a reliable secondary scorer for several years but with the RFAs on this list, it certainly looks like their raises will squeeze him out; with prices for secondary scoring dropping a bit lately, Killorn may be looking at a small dip if he continues to hover around the 40-point mark. Colton is in line for a bigger role next season following a strong showing in the playoffs which likely has him on a trajectory for a bigger deal as well. Perry and Bellemare are quality veterans who can anchor the fourth line or move up in a pinch; both likely left money on the table to go to the Lightning which is something that can be said for quite a few others on their team.

Sergachev has established himself as a quality piece on the second pairing and at 23, there’s still room for growth. He’s on the same contract as Cirelli so a higher qualifying offer will be coming in the 2023 offseason and likely a bigger deal than that. Cernak doesn’t light up the scoresheet but as a top-four right-shot defender, he’s going to be in line for a significant raise beyond his $3.54MM qualifier as well. If Foote is able to establish himself as a full-time player by the time his deal is up, doubling his AAV or more isn’t out of the question either. Big raises are coming from this group.

Three Years Remaining

F Alex Barre-Boulet ($758K, UFA)
D Zach Bogosian ($850K, UFA)
D Brent Seabrook ($6.875MM, UFA)
F Steven Stamkos ($8.5MM, UFA)

Stamkos is going to be one of the more interesting contracts for Tampa Bay to handle. He’ll be 34 when it starts so he should still have a few good years left in him but with the anticipated higher costs from their RFAs in the last group, it’s quite difficult to see them being able to afford a market-value contract for their captain unless there’s a significant contract moved out by then. Injuries have limited his usefulness lately and if that trend continues, his value will dip considerably. Barre-Boulet isn’t too established at the NHL level yet but he has scored in junior and in the minors and won’t need to do much to live up to a near-minimum contract. Assuming he produces – a reasonable one to make – this could be a nice value contract for them.

Bogosian also should be a value contract but is on the opposite side of his career. He could have gotten more elsewhere or even going year-to-year but opted for some stability with a chance to win.

Seabrook was acquired as part of the Tyler Johnson trade but his playing days are already over. He’ll return to LTIR next season.

Four Or More Years Remaining

D Victor Hedman ($7.875MM through 2024-25)
F Nikita Kucherov ($9.5MM through 2026-27)
D Ryan McDonagh ($6.75MM through 2025-26)
F Brayden Point ($6.75MM in 2021-22, $9.5MM from 2022-23 through 2029-30)
G Andrei Vasilevskiy ($9.5MM through 2027-28)

Kucherov is an elite point producer on a contract that is lower than some of the top ones handed out to top wingers on the open market. As long as the hip issue that cost him all of last season is gone – his playoff performance suggested it was – this will be a bargain as far as high-end contracts go. Point’s bridge deal is very much a bargain for a bona fide number one center and even his next contract should be viewed as a below-market one relative to what other top centers can get. Both of these deals are pricey but Tampa Bay should get good returns on each of them.

They’ve had a great return on Hedman’s contract so far. He has provided Norris-caliber defending in each of the first four seasons of the deal and there’s little reason to expect that to change anytime soon. Considering the value in which lower-end number ones were paid this summer and the pricier deals for veterans before that, Hedman’s contract is several million below market value. McDonagh has become more of a complementary defender the last couple of seasons as Cernak and Sergachev have taken on bigger roles which has made McDonagh more of a luxury. At some point, it may not be one they’re able to afford but for now, he rounds out a very strong top four on the back end.

Vasilevskiy is the third-highest-paid goalie in the league behind Montreal’s Carey Price and Florida’s Sergei Bobrovsky and is $4.5MM ahead of the median AAV among starters at a time where teams are opting more towards lower-cost tandems. And yet, you’d be hard-pressed to find anyone inside the organization that isn’t happy with his contract. His showing in the playoffs – out-dueling Price in the Stanley Cup Final – cemented his status as the best in the game and at 27, it’s a mantle he can hold for several more years. They’ll have to keep going with cheap backups for years to come but that’s a small price to pay to get this level of goaltending.

Buyouts

F Vincent Lecavalier ($1.762MM through 2026-27; $0 cap hit as it was a compliance buyout in 2013)

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

None

Best Value: Hedman
Worst Value: McDonagh

Looking Ahead

It’ll be same old, same old for the Lightning in 2021-22 as they’ll be tight to the cap, even with the LTIR relief from Seabrook. That isn’t going away anytime soon. Next summer could be a bit of a quieter one from the standpoint of veterans moving on with Palat being the only notable expiring contract and it’s possible that they can create enough wiggle room elsewhere to bring him back.

The 2022-23 summer will be the one to watch for as some big raises are on the horizon for their restricted free agents and some veterans will need to be jettisoned at that time for those contracts to be signed. But that’s still a couple of years away and between now and then, there may be a bit more stability than we’ve seen the last couple of offseasons.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Poll: Are The Montreal Canadiens A Playoff Team In 2021-22?

September 5, 2021 at 2:34 pm CDT | by Josh Erickson 31 Comments

After making it all the way to the 2021 Stanley Cup Final, losing in five games to the Tampa Bay Lightning, the Montreal Canadiens have had one of the most interesting offseasons of any team. That much roster turnover is unusual for a team that made it that far in the playoffs, but a decent portion of it has been out of their control.

A good portion of Montreal’s starting 12 forwards will look different next season. Gone down the middle are Phillip Danault, Jesperi Kotkaniemi, and Eric Staal. Dvorak will attempt to replace Danault’s shutdown role with a little more offensive touch but less defensive prowess. Kotkaniemi’s third-line role is likely to be replaced by another young center, most probably Jake Evans. Staal’s fourth-line role will likely be comprised of a more defensive-minded pivot in Cedric Paquette. Their group of wingers will look different too, losing out on Tomas Tatar’s two-way play in favor of a power-play specialist in Mike Hoffman. Gone is veteran Corey Perry in the bottom six, being replaced by another veteran presence in Mathieu Perreault.

The team’s defense faces the loss of the team’s captain in Shea Weber. His injury will keep him out for at least this entire season and puts the rest of his career in jeopardy. His absence will be replaced by committee, as youngster Alexander Romanov and new addition David Savard should see more minutes. The left side stays relatively constant from last season, and overseas addition Chris Wideman could challenge for some games as well.

A tandem of Carey Price and Jake Allen returns after a successful regular season campaign.

However, a team that barely squeaked into the playoffs last season returns with some question marks. Full seasons of Jonathan Drouin and Cole Caufield help boost the team, but downgrades from Danault to Dvorak and Tatar to Hoffman raise near-negating doubts. The success of youngsters like Evans and Romanov will be crucial if Montreal wants to make a return to the playoffs in 2022, and they’ll need repeat performances from players such as Jeff Petry and Josh Anderson.

So the question to you, PHR readers, is this: has Montreal done enough this offseason to yield a playoff team in an increasingly competitive Eastern Conference? Make your voice heard below:

Mobile users, click here to vote!

Ben Thomas Signs In Sweden

August 25, 2021 at 2:24 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee 1 Comment

After grinding through several seasons in the minor leagues, Ben Thomas finally got his chance during the 2020-21 season. The defenseman played in five games for the Tampa Bay Lightning, finally reaching the NHL for the first time. Despite finally making it to the top, Thomas’ 25th birthday passed in May, meaning he became a Group VI unrestricted free agent when the offseason hit.

Now, Thomas is set for a new challenge. The minor league veteran is heading to Sweden to join Leksands IF in the SHL, signing a one-year contract.

Originally selected in the fourth round in 2014, Thomas suited up more than 300 times for the Syracuse Crunch, getting to the Calder Cup Finals in 2017. He had nine points in 16 games this season for Syracuse but was unable to record an NHL point in his short stint with Tampa Bay. There’s no doubt that he’s still young enough to make a return to North America at some point in the future, but it remains to be seen whether he’ll ever get another crack in the NHL.

For now, he’ll be testing himself on a whole new level, but Leksands is also hoping to continue his development and take him even further in his career.

Ben Thomas Drawing Interest In Sweden

August 22, 2021 at 7:03 pm CDT | by Zach Leach 1 Comment

Defenseman Ben Thomas was finally able to crack the NHL this season, skating in five games with the Tampa Bay Lightning in his fifth pro season. However, it was too little too late in terms of NHL experience, as Thomas qualified for Group 6 unrestricted free agency. Yet, it seems as though the interest overseas is greater than any NHL interest that Thomas may have hoped for. Swedish source Expressen reports that the SHL’s Leksands IF has been negotiating with Thomas as they seek a top pair defenseman.

Thomas, 25, was a fourth-round pick of the Lightning in 2014. A productive two-way defenseman in the WHL, Thomas largely translated that ability to the AHL, recording 16+ points in each of his first four seasons with the Syracuse Crunch. However, he took a big step last season, recording nine points in only 16 games, not to mention a +8 rating. After years of being the “next man up” that never actually got called up, Thomas finally earned his chance with five games with Tampa Bay. While he was held scoreless, Thomas contributed defensively and his other underlying numbers were strong in the small sample size. His play across both leagues was at least enough to garner attention from overseas.

Expressen notes that Leksands is actually looking for two top defensemen and have talked to several former NHLers in addition to Thomas. This includes Anton Lindholm, who recently signed in the KHL, and Gustav Olofsson, who like Thomas played on NHL contracts last season. Joe Morrow and Matt Donovan are also in the mix. With a number of notable names on their list of candidates, it is clear that Leksands is serious about adding talent to the blue line. It also stands to reason that Leksands push to sign Thomas, described as “extensive”, could also be drawing the attention of other SHL contenders. Perhaps the opportunity in Sweden, both financially and role, is actually attracting Thomas away from a two-way NHL contract.

Tampa Bay Lightning Avoid Arbitration With Ross Colton

August 9, 2021 at 7:00 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee 9 Comments

7:00 PM: The Lightning have officially announced the contract.

1:30 PM: The Tampa Bay Lightning have locked up the player who clinched their recent Stanley Cup, signing Ross Colton to a two-year contract. The deal is worth $1MM in 2021-22 and $1.25MM in 2022-23, according to Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet. Colton was scheduled for an arbitration hearing on August 16 that will no longer be required.

Colton, 24, scored the Cup-winning goal for the Lightning a month ago, tapping home a backdoor pass from David Savard. The young forward is another example of Tampa Bay’s strong development system, going from a fourth-round pick in the 2016 draft to a regular in the NHL lineup this season. In 30 regular season games as a rookie, Colton managed to score nine goals and 12 points. That goal pace likely won’t continue right away, but just the fact that the team has turned another mid-round pick into an NHL player is a win for the organization.

He didn’t really come out of nowhere though, as Colton found success in each of his years at the University of Vermont before starring for the Syracuse Crunch. In 2019-20 he registered 42 points in 62 games for Syracuse, throwing himself into the mix for a call-up if the Lightning ever needed a versatile player. The fact is that Colton has made himself a valuable player by being able to play center or the wing, score with the top-six, or check with the bottom-six.

Given the fact that Tampa Bay has been forced to watch Tyler Johnson, Yanni Gourde, Barclay Goodrow and Blake Coleman leave this summer, there should be even more minutes on the table for Colton this season. While it’s not certain how things shake out, he should get quite the opportunity with the defending champs.

For the Lightning, they have now finished their restricted free agent negotiations and can focus on preparing for the regular season. The team is technically over the salary cap right now, but can move Brent Seabrook’s contract to long-term injured reserve when necessary. It appears as though the offseason work is done, but never count out GM Julien BriseBois.

Tampa Bay Lightning Sign Sean Day

August 1, 2021 at 12:44 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee 4 Comments

The Tampa Bay Lightning have signed restricted free agent defenseman Sean Day, who was issued a qualifying offer last month. The one-year, two-way deal will pay Day $750K in the NHL and $100K in the minors with a $125K guarantee, per CapFriendly.

Day, 23, was originally selected in the third round by the New York Rangers in 2016 after being one of the few players to ever receive exceptional status in the OHL. The young defenseman struggled to find his way in the Rangers system, bouncing back and forth between minor league levels, but seemed to turn things around this year with the Syracuse Crunch. In fact, Day recorded 15 points in 29 games with Syracuse, leading all Crunch defenders.

There’s always been a huge ceiling for the 6’3″ Day, who played defense in the OHL at the age of 15, but a lack of consistency has stalled his development. If the Lightning, who have one of the most successful development systems in the entire NHL, can ever unlock the potential, they’ll have found another gem on the scrap heap. Day had his entry-level contract terminated with the Rangers in 2020, only to sign a one-year deal with the Lightning a few weeks later.

Tampa Bay now has just one RFA left to sign in Ross Colton, who is arbitration-eligible. Colton scored the Stanley Cup-winning goal for the Lightning and could be looking at a healthy arbitration award after scoring nine goals and 12 points in 30 games during a successful rookie season. The deadline to file for arbitration is at 4pm today.

Canucks Acquire Spencer Martin

July 31, 2021 at 2:31 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 1 Comment

The Canucks have acquired some extra goaltending depth, announcing the acquisition of Spencer Martin from the Lightning in exchange for future considerations. There was no mention of what the future consideration could be or what is required for it to transfer.

The 26-year-old signed a one-year contract with Tampa Bay with a cap hit of $800K in the NHL and $105K in the minors back in May but now won’t play a single game under that deal for them. He spent last season with their AHL affiliate in Syracuse, posting a 7-5-2 record with a 2.83 GAA and a .907 SV% in 15 games. His only NHL action came in three NHL appearances with Colorado back in 2017.

Tampa Bay had a bit of a logjam between the pipes after they signed Maxime Lagace at the beginning of free agency on Wednesday. He joins youngsters Hugo Alnefelt and Amir Miftakhov in their system so there was no room for Martin to play. He’ll have a better shot of seeing playing time in Vancouver as he’ll likely team up with Michael DiPietro in AHL Abbotsford with Arturs Silovs likely heading for the ECHL.

Lightning Re-Sign Boris Katchouk

July 31, 2021 at 12:37 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 1 Comment

The Lightning took care of one of their restricted free agents today, announcing the re-signing of Boris Katchouk to a three-year contract while also confirming the previously-reported three-year deal to Taylor Raddysh. Both players will have deals with a $758K AAV that is a two-way contract for next season and then converts to a one-way pact for the final two years. That means the NHL salary in each year of the deal will be the league minimum – $750K in 2021-22 and 2022-23 and $775K in 2023-24.

Katchouk, 23, was a second-round pick of Tampa Bay back in 2016 (44th overall) but he has yet to play in the NHL. Last season, he posted a career-best 34 points in just 29 games with AHL Syracuse, notable considering that his previous career-high of 32 points came in 60 games back in 2019-20. That has helped him secure two one-way seasons without even playing an NHL game which doesn’t often happen.

Of course, Tampa Bay’s cap situation plays a role in that. Katchouk, along with Raddysh and Alex Barre-Boulet whose identically structured deal was announced earlier in the week, figures to be a regular with the Lightning before long as they won’t be able to afford more than players making close to the minimum salary to round out their roster. To get that low-AAV guarantee for three years means they needed to guarantee an NHL salary for two of them as an incentive to sign now. As long as Katchouk and the others play reasonably well, it’ll be a low-cost gamble to make.

The Lightning now have just two players left to re-sign in AHL defenseman Sean Day plus center Ross Colton who is arbitration-eligible. The deadline for filing for a hearing is tomorrow so a decision will need to be made on that front soon.

Tampa Bay Lightning To Re-Sign Taylor Raddysh

July 30, 2021 at 6:00 pm CDT | by Zach Leach 3 Comments

Tampa Bay Lightning GM Julien Brisebois name-dropped restricted free agent forward Taylor Raddysh recently when discussing how the team’s recent veteran departures up front combined with their limited salary cap space would push young, affordable players into regular roles. Raddysh’s new deal certainly seems to back that up. CapFriendly reports that the Bolts and Raddysh have come to terms on a new three-year deal with a $758K AAV, the structure of which implies the 23-year-old winger is set to become a lineup regular. The breakdown is as follows:

21-22: Two-way, $750K NHL, $100K AHL ($125K guaranteed)
22-23: One-way, $750K
23-24: One-way, $775K

Raddysh may not have any NHL games to his credit just yet, but the Lightning clearly believe that he is ready for the opportunity – and then some. A three-year deal, two of which are one-way and one of which is non-minimum salary, is more than Tampa needed to give to the untested forward, but seemingly wanted to display their faith in the big winger.

The 6’3″, 210-lb. forward is a rare homegrown prospect still in the Tampa pipeline, having been drafted in the second round in 2016. Raddysh was a well-regarded prospect, topping 100 points in the OHL in 2016-17 for a stacked Erie Otters team that included numerous current NHLers, including Tampa’s own Anthony Cirelli and Erik Cernak and brother Darren Raddysh. His offense has not slowed much in the pros either, recording 110 points in 159 AHL games, including scoring at a better than point-per-game pace this season.

With few right shot forwards pegged for a roster spot in Tampa Bay, Raddysh has an outside shot of cracking the roster right away this season. The big winger may have been blocked slightly by the recent addition of Corey Perry, but he also has a great opportunity to learn a lot from the talented veteran.

Tampa Bay Lightning Sign Alex Barre-Boulet

July 30, 2021 at 9:19 am CDT | by Gavin Lee 1 Comment

The Tampa Bay Lightning have signed Alex Barre-Boulet to a three-year contract. The first year is a two-way deal that will carry a salary of $750K at the NHL level, the second year is one-way and comes with a salary of $750K and the third year is one-way with a salary of $775K. The contract’s average annual value at the NHL level will be $758,333. Barre-Boulet was a restricted free agent coming off his entry-level contract.

The 24-year-old forward is another one of Tampa’s undrafted development projects and appears ready to take on a full-time role in the NHL. After dominating the AHL with 124 points in his first two seasons, he made his debut with Tampa Bay this season, playing in 15 games. Though he had just three goals during that span, he was an excellent possession player and should be a fixture in the lineup this season.

Signing for three years at the league minimum is obviously a big win for the Lightning, even if he’s just a part-time player moving forward. Barre-Boulet obviously was willing to give up a bit of potential salary for the security of a multi-year contract and by doing so actually made it easier for the team to keep him in the NHL. Tampa Bay, who have lost several players this summer because of the salary cap, will need players on cheap contracts as they continue pay their more productive forwards at the top of the lineup. Just this week, Brayden Point signed a massive eight-year extension that will make him one of the highest-paid forwards in the league. That deal won’t kick in until next season, but Barre-Boulet is now locked in at a very reasonable price for that stage too.

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