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Poll: Which Team Is Under The Most Pressure To Make The Playoffs?

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When the NHL’s unofficial second half kicks off this week, there will be substantially fewer teams with playoff hopes than when the first half began back in October. Of course, no team has been statistically eliminated yet, but a quick look at the standings can help to rule out more than a handful of the league’s bottom-dwellers. In fact, The Athletic’s Dom Luszczyszyn had seven teams with less than a 5% chance of reaching the playoffs in his latest model: the Ottawa Senators, Detroit Red Wings, Los Angeles Kings, New York Rangers, New Jersey Devils, Chicago Blackhawks, and Philadelphia Flyers.

On the other hand, there are also quite a few teams whose first-half success has given them near certainty of playing beyond the regular season this year. Luszczszyn’s projections give eleven teams an 85% chance or better of qualifying for the postseason: the Tampa Bay Lightning, Calgary Flames, Winnipeg Jets, Nashville Predators, San Jose Sharks, Toronto Maple Leafs, Vegas Golden Knights, Pittsburgh Penguins, Boston Bruins, Columbus Blue Jackets, and New York Islanders.

This leaves 13 clubs remaining – the “fringe” teams – who are vying for a possible five playoff spots. Eight of these teams will miss out. Who least wants to be part of that group?

Well, the team who has been a member of the early off-season club the longest would certainly like to change things up. The Carolina Hurricanes have gone nine seasons since making a postseason appearance and have come close the last few years but fallen short. The team could crack 90 points this season for the first time in eight years, but it might not be enough in the tight Eastern Conference wild card race. The two other teams who are desperate to get back to the playoffs are the Buffalo Sabres, who are on a seven-year drought, and the Arizona Coyotes, who are six years out from a postseason appearance. The Sabres got off to a hot start this season and looked to be a surprise playoff team, but have regressed recently, with three wins in their past then games, and are now tied with Carolina for ninth place in the East. The Coyotes have been resilient in the deep Western Conference wild card race, battling injuries and inconsistency to stay in the mix, but Arizona has their work cut out for them the rest of the way.

Then there are the teams who have made the playoffs recently but not performed. The Blue Jackets – who have never won a playoff series in franchise history – will almost certainly have another shot this year, but what about the Florida Panthers? Many have dismissed the team this season, but the Panthers have plenty of talent and have fallen short of expectations until recently. They face an uphill battle to make the postseason but if they do, the team would have a chance to snap the league’s longest streak without a playoff series win. Florida has not won a round since 1996, a whopping 21 seasons without postseason success and longer than the Blue Jackets have even existed. That’s a substantial mark on the franchise. It’s been a decade now since the Colorado Avalanche have won a postseason series as well and now that they are armed with one of the league’s best forward lines, have a chance against anyone if they can win a spot. The Avs looked like a legitimate Stanley Cup contender early this season and with some trade deadline reinforcements could be a factor this spring. However, recent struggles have plummeted them into the thick of the wild card race in the West and they are in danger of missing the playoffs entirely.

Then, there are teams that simply entered the 2018-19 campaign with high expectations and need to meet them. The defending champion Washington Capitals are of course part of this group. Among the most likely fringe teams to make the postseason, it is nevertheless hard to ignore the disastrous play of the Capitals of late. Three wins in their past ten games, including a number of blowout losses, has begun “Stanley Cup hangover” talk and has legitimately injured Washington’s playoff odds. The team needs to right the ship soon or risk falling out of the current playoff picture. A team on the opposite trajectory are the Minnesota Wild, who have improved their play of late and have pulled away in the race for the final Central Division berth. Minnesota is another team that entered the season with high expectations and are still searching for the franchise’s first ever Stanley Cup final appearance. With hopes reaching new highs this season, a collapse for the Wild would be devastating.

Unlike the Capitals and Wild, there are also teams with high expectations who don’t have promising playoff outlooks right now. The Edmonton Oilers and the league’s best player, Connor McDavid, sit atop that list. Edmonton is currently in 13th in the Western Conference and in danger of dropping out of the playoff conversation sooner than any fringe team. The organization has already fired their head coach and general manager this season amid another year of disappointing results and face slim odds that this campaign will end any differently. McDavid and company maintain that the Oilers are a playoff-caliber team, but something has to change with this team down the stretch for that that hypothesis to be tested this postseason. The St. Louis Blues and Dallas Stars certainly look like playoff teams on paper, but both have been mediocre at best this season. The Blues, a popular dark horse Stanley Cup pick before the season, have been disappointing in every regard and there has been talk that the team could blow it up this season. A recent improvement paired with the struggles of others in the Western Conference playoff race have revived postseason hopes, but few expected that making the playoffs would be this difficult for St. Louis this season. The same goes for Dallas, who has had highly-publicized feuds between ownership, coaches, and players alike this year as the team continues to fall short of expectations. The Stars currently hold the top spot in the wild card race, but a recent history of late season collapses casts doubt over their ability to hold on to that spot.

There are still many teams whose playoff futures this season remain in question. These franchises all have varying degrees of desperation based on history and expectations. Of the 13 “fringe” teams, which team is under the most pressure to make the playoffs?

Mobile users, click here to vote.

Pacific Notes: Chychrun, Smith, Vlasic

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While Arizona Coyotes oft-injured defenseman Jakob Chychrun will be playing in his 30th game Sunday, the defenseman still isn’t 100 percent after offseason surgery on his right ACL. The 20-year-old is already in his third season in the NHL, but he hasn’t played more than 68 games in a season due to injuries. The most recent injury, he knows he’ll just have to play through, according to The Athletic’s Craig Morgan (subscription required).

“My knee can get a little sore still sometimes, which can be a little frustrating,” he said. “Last year, I didn’t really have that because last year was just a repair (left meniscus). This one they had to take another part of my body and make that into a new ACL. Taking that piece of patellar tendon, it can get really sore. It’s pretty up and down and it’s one thing I have been dealing with. It can feel great or it can feel terrible.”

Regardless, Chychrun has been making the most of his time as the defenseman has three goals and 10 points while averaging 20:12 in ATOI this season with 41 hits and 41 blocked shots. Arizona head coach Rick Tocchet has been impressed with Chychrun’s play despite his struggles with injury.

“He’s a 20-year-old kid that didn’t have a training camp and doesn’t have a ton of games under his belt and I’m playing him 20-plus minutes, playing him penalty kill, power play. We’re giving him a lot. My thing is to see how he reacts after bad games and they are fewer and farther between — you don’t get as many in a row and I think that’s a big step for him.”

  • When you think of the Vegas Golden Knights’ best player, you think of names such as Marc-Andre Fleury, William Karlsson, Jon Marchessault or Alex Tuch. However, when The Athletic’s Jesse Granger (subscription required) went around the locker room and asked that question, he got a surprise answer — Reilly Smith. The forward has been out of the lineup with a leg injury since Jan. 6 and while there is talk that the Golden Knights missed defenseman Nate Schmidt desperately while he missed 20 games at the start of the season with a suspension, the players feel that Smith’s offense is missed even more. “It’s been big,” defenseman Shea Theodore said. “I think he’s by far one of the most underrated players in the league. He’s a great two-way player who wins a lot of battles in the defensive zone. He’s a big guy on the penalty kill as well. When you look at that, and look behind his numbers, I think it’s been a huge loss for us.”
  • Saturday’s matchup between the San Jose Sharks and Tampa Bay Lightning was played without star defenseman Erik Karlsson, who chose to sit out with a lower-body injury. Reports suggest that Karlsson might sit out the team’s final two games on Monday and Tuesday, to rest up until after the All-Star break. However, while that loss is significant to the team, fellow defenseman Marc-Edouard Vlasic missed his eighth game and The Athletic’s Kevin Kurz (subscription required) writes that the team may not be missing Vlasic much at all. The team has outscored their opponents 24-15 with Vlasic out. That along with his minus-13 rating might suggest that the team might be better off using a more offensive-minded defenseman in his stead like Tim Heed.

Atlantic Notes: Cernak, Johnson, Ullmark, Heinen

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The Tampa Bay Lightning have seen their hit numbers skyrocket this season as the team has 200 more hits than they did at this point last season and much of that credit can go to the play of rookie defenseman Erik Cernak. The 21-year-old already has 91 hits this season as his play has only made the Lightning even tougher on the ice.

“If there’s a surprise, it’s that he’s getting better,” head coach Jon Cooper said. “You sit and say, ‘OK, this kid is going to play in the NHL, it’s a matter of when. But there’s still some development to do.’ But he’s stepped right in, played with (Ryan McDonagh). … The one thing that he has done is he can handle the big boys. He can skate with the big boys. That’s the one thing that maybe we didn’t give him enough credit for until you see him do it.

Joe Smith of The Athletic (subscription required) writes that the Lightning may be coming close to a point where they intend to commit to the rookie as a permanent member of their top-six. Cernak has been amongst a group of defenseman who have taken turns sitting out in a rotation that includes Mikhail Sergachev, Dan Girardi, Braydon Coburn and even Anton Stralman. Smith adds that over the next month or two, the team may want to settle on their top-six defenders before the playoffs to solidify their blueline chemistry. Cernak is making a case to being one of those top six.

  • NHL.com’s Bryan Burns writes that Tampa Bay Lightning forward Tyler Johnson remains out with a lower-body injury that he suffered against Toronto Thursday. The scribe writes that Tampa Bay assistant coach Derek Lalonde said he expects Johnson to be back after the team returns from its bye week, which the team will start after their game tonight against San Jose.
  • At the start of the season, Buffalo Sabres goaltender Linus Ullmark was the team’s backup goaltender behind newly signed Carter Hutton, but Jon Vogl of The Athletic (subscription required) writes that things have changed in Buffalo now after Ullmark has appeared in four straight games recently. Now, they are considered co-starters as the 25-year-old has posted a 10-4-4 record this year, including a .914 save percentage, while Hutton has struggled since November. In his last 12 starts, Hutton has a 2.82 GAA and a .898 save percentage.
  • Despite an impressive rookie campaign last year, Boston Bruins forward Danton Heinen has struggled considerably this season as the 23-year-old has just five goals and 12 points in 46 games. However, while the team has scratched many of their players recently such as David Backes, Ryan Donato and Noel Acciari, Heinen has avoided being a healthy scratch recently. NBC Sports’ Joe Haggerty writes that head coach Bruce Cassidy feels that while his offense is struggling, Heinen has other parts of his game that continue to help Boston win. “As long as he helps us win he’ll stay in and we’ll allow him to play through it. Unless we find a player that’s better or more suited, then we’ll always take a look at that,” said Cassidy. “That could be from within if a player grows his game and passed him. But right now he’s still a positive for us.”

Schedule For Upcoming NHL “Bye Weeks”

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For the third year in a row, the NHL has scheduled a mandated multi-day break for each team in the middle part of the season. Meant to give each team a rest, much like the bye week in the National Football League, this break also includes limits on practice, including several days in which all team activities are prohibited. A seven-day break this season, on paper an increase from the original five-day break, the “bye week” is actually less intrusive this season than it has been in the past despite the longer length. All 31 teams will take their break either right before or right after the upcoming All-Star Weekend, with those two days counting toward the seven and simply extending what has always been a short break for non-participants. Below are the lists of teams who will take leave on one side of All-Star festivities or the other:

Before All-Star Weekend (January 20 – 24)

Boston Bruins
Buffalo Sabres
Columbus Blue Jackets
Dallas Stars
New Jersey Devils
New York Rangers
Philadelphia Flyers
Pittsburgh Penguins
Tampa Bay Lightning
Winnipeg Jets

After All-Star Weekend (January 27 – 31)

Anaheim Ducks
Arizona Coyotes
Calgary Flames
Carolina Hurricanes
Chicago Blackhawks
Colorado Avalanche
Detroit Red Wings
Edmonton Oilers
Florida Panthers
Los Angeles Kings
Minnesota Wild
Montreal Canadiens
Nashville Predators
New York Islanders
Ottawa Senators
San Jose Sharks
St. Louis Blues
Toronto Maple Leafs
Vancouver Canucks
Vegas Golden Knights
Washington Capitals

How each team feels about taking an extended break in the middle of the season generally varies based on situational factors. While many players would enjoy getting to spend some time away with their families, others would rather keep the pedal to the metal mid-season. More specifically, a team that is playing well and stringing together wins would rather keep playing and not lose out on that momentum. Another team may be in a slump or struggling with injuries and desperately in need of a break. Either way, not every team will be in favor of the bye week each season.

There also remains some scheduling flaws with the mandated break, as most teams will only get the actual seven days or an eighth day off for travel, but others are set to go ten or eleven days without a contest. The “bye week” seems to be a move by the NHL that has enough support to continue in future seasons, but the league could work on sharpening the schedule so as to give teams as close to an even break as their competition as possible.

Blackhawks Continue Making Roster Room On Defense

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With seven healthy defenseman finally on their roster, the Chicago Blackhawks announced that they have assigned defenseman Brandon Davidson to the Rockford IceHogs of the AHL, freeing up a roster spot for Gustav Forsling, who has been on injured reserve with an upper-body injury.

The 27-year-old Davidson has had trouble finding a full-time role with any team as he is already on his fourth organization in his fifth season in the league. Due to injuries and multiple healthy scratches, Davidson has appeared in just 10 games for Chicago this year. He has been traded twice, claimed on waivers once and this year opted to sign a one-year deal with a Chicago in the offseason worth $650K. He hasn’t played a game in the AHL since the 2014-15 season when he played for the Oklahoma City Barons, no longer an affiliate with the AHL.

For the Blackhawks, it’s just another move to rebuild their blueline that has gotten younger throughout the season, starting with Henri Jokiharju making the team out of camp, to the promotion of Carl Dahlstrom on Dec. 12, to the recent acquisition of Slater Koekkoek from Tampa Bay. The team has also moved out some veterans, including dealing Brandon Manning and his two-year deal to Edmonton in exchange for winger Drake Caggiula and veteran defenseman Jason Garrison, who the team immediately placed on unconditional waivers and released. The team then moved Jan Rutta to the Lightning to acquire Koekkoek.

These moves should only continue into next season as well as the Blackhawks have a number of young blueliners who could be ready for Chicago next year, including 2018 first-round picks Adam Boqvist and Nicolas Beaudin, as well as University of Denver standout Ian Mitchell (although the team would still have to sign him).

 

Atlantic Notes: Toronto Goaltending, Sergachev, Chabot

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Sunday’s practice in Toronto seemed like old times as both of the Toronto Maple Leafs injured goaltenders, Frederik Andersen (groin/illness) and Garret Sparks (concussion) could be found on the ice. The team had already sent Kasimir Kaskisuo back to the Toronto Marlies in the AHL and Michael Hutchinson was seen after practice working on his own.

TSN’s Mark Masters reports that Andersen said he feels fine and is ready to return. However, Toronto head coach Mike Babcock said that he had to refer to the staff before naming a starter for Monday’s game against Colorado. Andersen hasn’t appeared in a game since Dec. 22. Andersen has been the team’s rock in goal as he has a 2.50 GAA and a .923 save percentage in 30 games this season.

Masters adds that Sparks said he’s been medically cleared to return to the team and it’s now up to the staff to determine whether he can return to the roster on Monday. Toronto has to be hopeful that both goaltenders can take over some of the workload as Hutchinson has now played in nine games this season. If he reaches 10 games, the team will have to pass him through waivers when both their goalies are healthy and there is a likelihood the team could lose another goaltender there. The team already lost both Curtis McElhinney and Calvin Pickard to waivers at the beginning of the year.

  • The Department of Player Safety announced that they have fined Tampa Bay Lightning defenseman Mikhail Sergachev $2,403.67, the maximum fine allowable by the CBA, for cross checking Buffalo Sabres forward Johan Larsson Saturday. The incident occurred at 13:24 of the third period and Sergachev received a double-minor penalty on the play. Despite the fine, the 20-year-old has seen an improvement from the offensive end as he has a goal and four assists in his last five games with a plus-two rating. Despite the fact that many feel that Sergachev has taken a step back this season, he has actually increased his ATOI from 15:22 last season to 17:44 this season.
  • While it’s vague, Ottawa Senators head coach Guy Boucher responded positively when asked about the injury status of second-year defenseman Thomas Chabot, saying that “Chabot is doing terrific,” according to Ottawa Sun’s Ken Warren. Chabot has been out since Dec. 28th after taking a hit from New York Islanders’ Matt Martin with an upper body injury and was deemed to be out “long-term.” While the update gives no projection on when he’ll be back, the team has been crippled without him as he has developed into the team’s No. 1 defenseman after the team traded away Erik Karlsson. Chabot was averaging a point a game so far this year with 10 goals and 28 assists in 38 games.

Extensive Power Forward Trade Market Forming

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If the 2019 NHL Trade Deadline is deep at any one type of player, it is power forward. As the February 25th deadline grows closer and teams begin to make tough decisions about who goes and who stays, it is becoming clear that many big, physical scoring forwards are about to be up for grabs before they hit free agency. Just this past week, it was reported that the Philadelphia Flyers’ Wayne Simmonds was likely to be moved and inferred that the Carolina Hurricanes and Micheal Ferland were unlikely to come to terms ahead of the deadline. And that’s just the beginning.

Outside of the 6’2″ Simmonds and 220-lb. Ferland, there are plenty of other names out there that fit the power forward mold. Since this summer, the New York Rangers’ Kevin Hayes has been earmarked for a deadline trade. If they cannot agree to an extension, the Ottawa Senators may be forced to move star Mark Stone. Should the New York Islanders or Colorado Avalanche fall out of the playoff race, Brock Nelson and Colin Wilson – neither of whom look like long-term fits on their respective teams – should be on the block. To some surprise, Patrick Maroon’s time with his hometown St. Louis Blues appears to be already running out. Even role player power forwards like New Jersey’s Brian Boyle and Florida’s Troy Brouwer should draw interest.

Many of these players feature on the trade bait lists from both The Athletic and TSN, as well as some non-UFA power forwards like the Blues’ Brayden Schenn, the Rangers’ Chris Kreider, the Wild’s Nino Niederreiter, and even young Jesse Puljujarvi of the Edmonton Oilers. While it may seem like too many names for too few teams – and it is a buyer’s market this year for sure – The Athletic’s Pierre LeBrun mentioned a number of suitors for a power forward who could make a move for one or more of these trade candidates in the coming weeks. At the top, LeBrun sees some of the biggest contenders as likely landing spots, naming the Tampa Bay Lightning, Nashville Predators, Winnipeg Jets, and Calgary Flames as good fits for Simmonds, Ferland, and the like. He also adds the Boston Bruins and Vegas Golden Knights into that group. Of course, the Bruins and Jets also have needs down the middle and could be more ideal fits for Hayes or Nelson, while the wingers would appeal more to Tampa Bay and Nashville. While LeBrun casts doubt on the Toronto Maple Leafs being interested, if an arms race begins the team could feel pressured to add to their forward corps as well. The Colorado Avalanche and Dallas Stars, both in need of secondary scoring, could also jump in on the action, while the Patric Hornqvist injury could prompt the Pittsburgh Penguins to make another move.

With so many power forwards potentially available and prices expected to be low, it could be that the majority of playoff-bound teams decide to add a hired gun up front this season. You can never have too much size and grit in the postseason, not to mention scoring touch, and the 2019 deadline could be defined by many players possessing those exact traits heading to new teams. With plenty of talent available, one of the aforementioned players might just end up being the x-factor for the eventual Stanley Cup champions this year.

J.T. Miller, Ryan Callahan Expected To Return On Upcoming Road Trip

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  • The Lightning hope to have forward J.T. Miller back in their lineup sometime during their upcoming three-game road trip, notes Diana C. Nearhos of the Tampa Bay Times. He has missed the last six games due to an upper-body injury.  Meanwhile, winger Ryan Callahan is also expected to return during this trip.  Head coach Jon Cooper indicated that the veteran re-aggravated something in his upper body (he has missed time with back and shoulder issues) which has caused him to miss the last two games.

Lightning, Blackhawks Swap Slater Koekkoek And Jan Rutta

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Young defenseman Slater Koekkoek had one game remaining in his conditioning reassignment and the Tampa Bay Lightning had been searching for a trade partner before its expiration. They have found one, as TSN’s Bob McKenzie was the first to report that Koekkoek is headed to the Chicago Blackhawks in exchange for veteran defenseman Jan Rutta. Also being exchanged are two late draft picks, as Chicago acquires a 2019 fifth-round pick and Tampa acquires a 2019 seventh-round pick, per the Blackhawks’ announcement.

This is the fourth trade made today alone, as the NHL trade market appears to be heating up. While Koekkoek had long been expected to be moved, Rutta comes as slightly more of a surprise. The 28-year-old cleared waivers and was sent to the AHL last month after recording just six points through 28 games. Rutta came over from his native Czech Republic last season as one of the best defenseman in the top Czech league. He carved out a role for himself with Chicago, registering 20 points in 57 games and showing flashes of brilliance at times. The Blackhawks resigned Rutta to a one-year,  $2.25MM contract that immediately turned on them as he struggled right off the bat this season. Given that he cleared waivers not long ago in the midst of a down season and the Blackhawks have since traded Brandon Manning and released Jason Garrison, Ruuta’s name had not been heard much on the rumor mill.

Yet, despite his struggles and impending free agency, not to mention being both older and having less NHL experience, the details of the trade imply Rutta is considered the better of the two players. Chicago acquired both Koekkoek, who the team may control as an impending restricted free agent, and the better of the two picks in the deal. Rutta is nice depth piece for Tampa Bay in their pursuit of a Stanley Cup, but Koekkoek has the higher ceiling and longevity. The No. 10 pick overall in 2012, the 24-year-old Koekkoek is a hard-working defenseman who possesses the puck well. However, he simply never played consistently well enough to earn a regular role for the Lightning and the risk of losing him for nothing on waivers had begun to hamstring their roster decisions. There is some question as to whether Koekkoek has the high-end skill of a true NHL defenseman, but he will get the opportunity to prove it one way or another for the struggling Blackhawks, who made a completely risk-free trade.

Tampa Bay Lightning Trying To Trade Slater Koekkoek

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Though there were certainly more exciting headlines generated by Elliotte Friedman’s latest 31 Thoughts column for Sportsnet—including that Carolina and Micheal Ferland are still not close on a contract extension—Tampa Bay Lightning fans likely focused in on one nugget in particular. Friedman reports that the Lightning are working to find a “new home” for Slater Koekkoek, who is currently with the Syracuse Crunch on a conditioning stint.

It’s been several years of disappointment for Koekkoek, who was selected 10th overall in 2012 as a do-it-all defenseman that could potentially grow into a nice complement behind Victor Hedman in Tampa Bay. Though his minor league career got off to a very solid start in 2014, Koekkoek has played just 85 NHL games to date and regularly found himself sitting on the bench late in games even when he was dressed. With the addition of Ryan McDonagh and Mikhail Sergachev as additional left-handed options the future seems bleak for Koekkoek even if he could stay healthy.

Just finding a new home could be quite difficult. Though Koekkoek carries just an $865K cap hit this season, he’s waiver eligible and a restricted free agent with arbitration rights in the summer. Nothing he’s done so far in his NHL career has shown that he would be even worth a qualifying offer given the risk of arbitration, meaning teams aren’t going to want to give up a lot to get him. If Tampa Bay is truly set on moving him it would likely be more of a “fresh start” trade that brings back very little, a tough ending for an organization who has invested a high pick and several years of development.

There could very well be another benefit for the Lightning though, given that they currently sit just under the 50-contract limit. With 49 players under contract in the organization, they will be limited at the trade deadline and at the end of the college season. That alone could be worth moving Koekkoek, if they’ve truly decided that he’s not part of the future.

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