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Stretch Run Storylines 2020

Stretch Run Storylines: Tampa Bay Lightning

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As things stand, the NHL is planning to have games resume at some point over the coming weeks.  Assuming the regular season continues, there will be plenty of things to watch for over the stretch run.  Over the coming weeks, PHR will examine the top stretch run storylines for each team.  We look at the Atlantic Division with Tampa Bay.

It’s been a strange year for the Tampa Bay Lightning, who many felt would step into the 2019-20 season with vengeance in their minds after an embarrassing first-round exit in the playoffs last year when they were the most dominant team in hockey. Instead, the team started slowly and quickly found themselves sitting outside the playoffs. There was even some discussion that the team could let go head coach Jon Cooper, although general manager Julien BriseBois gave him a vote of confidence. Then everything changed around Christmas when the Lightning went on a 10-game winning streak and followed that up in late January with an 11-game winning streak that vaulted them into a solid second place standing in the Atlantic Division.

Stamkos Return?

The timing of his injury couldn’t have been worse back in early March when it was announced that Steven Stamkos would be out for six to eight weeks to have surgery to repair a core muscle injury. That would likely have required the top-line star to miss the first round of the playoffs in the best case scenario. The suspension of play is only going to be an advantage to injured players as it gives them time to heal and Stamkos could receive the biggest advantage as he now should have plenty of time to recover and be ready to hit the ice when play resumes. So far he’s close to reaching the half-way point of his recovery process and in a few weeks time could be ready for action again, which should be plenty of time.

Stamkos is second on the team in scoring with 29 goals and 66 points and while those numbers are down compared to previous seasons, likely due to his core muscle injury that has slowed him down, a healthy Stamkos could be a difference-maker in the playoffs.

Salary Cap Issues

The Lightning also have to start looking to the 2020-21 season when their salary cap could be significantly affected, especially if the cap flatlines. The team doesn’t have any significant contracts that are set to expire and those that are, like Kevin Shattenkirk or Pat Maroon, are players the Lightning are likely going to want to extend.

Throw in the fact that goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy’s new contract will kick in as his AAV will go from $3.5MM to $9.5MM, and the fact that defenseman Mikhail Sergachev’s entry-level deal expires, meaning a raise is in order for the fast-developing blueliner and Tampa Bay has some issues.

That likely will require BriseBois to make some trades to fix those cap concerns and even out their roster. He had some success at that last year when he was able to trade forward J.T. Miller to Vancouver for a conditional first-rounder that since has been traded away for more immediate help. The team may have to unload even more this offseason to balance the cap.

Potential Meeting With Maple Leafs

If the playoffs do hit, it almost seems inevitable that the Lightning will find themselves with the inconsistent, but potential playoff wrecker in the Maple Leafs. The team avoided their top-heavy Atlantic last season, clinching first place and a wild-card opponent. Unfortunately, that didn’t go well as they were swept by Columbus.

However, with Boston eight points ahead of the Lightning, it’s obvious that they will face off against Toronto. While the Maple Leafs have been erratic all season, that doesn’t mean the Lightning are looking forward to the combination of John Tavares, Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and William Nylander, any of which can change the outcome of playoff games. It could be the most interesting of the first-round matchups, assuming the playoffs happen.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Stretch Run Storylines: Boston Bruins

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As things stand, the NHL is planning to have games resume at some point over the coming weeks.  Assuming the regular season continues, there will be plenty of things to watch for over the stretch run.  Over the coming weeks, PHR will examine the top stretch run storylines for each team.  We open up our look at the Atlantic Division with Boston.

Whereas many teams that fall just short of a Stanley Cup championship struggle maintaining their success the following season, that hasn’t been the case in Boston, where the Bruins have been dominant one of the most top-heavy divisions in the NHL. The Bruins have been clearly the best team in the NHL as they are the only team to have broken the 100-point mark before the NHL suspended their season. It’s clear that Boston’s only goal is return to the Stanley Cup Finals and this time win it.

Can Suspension Of Play Affect Bruins’ Succcess?

The Bruins have been rolling and looked like the top candidate to win a Stanley Cup. However, a break in play can’t be good for a team that was playing this well. The Bruins have won 16 of their last 20 games. A long break could definitely affect players in different ways — whether they are all staying to top shape, etc. as well as how they play with each other. It could take longer than usual for any team to regain their form.

With that the NHL could shorten or even cancel the remainder of the regular season in hopes of pushing the playoffs even closer, Boston, full of veteran players, could find themselves struggling to get out of the gate and an early playoff exit could be a real possibility.

Injured Players

The Boston Bruins accomplished all this despite struggling significantly with injuries on the back end. Over the season, the team has dealt with significant injuries to John Moore, Kevan Miller, Charlie McAvoy, Torey Krug and Connor Clifton, but has been able to put together a patch work of players to fill out their rosters while their players recover on injured reserve. The forward lines have also been hit hard with numerous injuries as well.

While most of those players were back with the team before the season was suspended, the break could offer some positive points as well. It will offer a significant advantage to the team who has been ravaged by injuries this season. If all players have plenty of time to get over their injuries, they may have a full and complete roster to help them to their eventual goal.

Trade Deadline Acquisitions

The Boston Bruins picked up a couple of key forwards at the trade deadline when it acquired Ondrej Kase and Nick Ritchie from Anaheim in separate deals. The hope that Kase would provide the team a significant upgrade to the team’s top-six, while Ritchie could also add some key depth to Boston’s bottom six.

Kase, who was injured at the time of the trade, hasn’t accomplished that yet. He was activated a few days after the trade and immediately placed on the top line, but in seven games had registered only an assist. The team’s hope was that being surrounded with veteran talent would bring out Kase’s potential to score goals and turn him into the high-scoring player that many envisioned when he scored 20 goals in 2017-18. Ritchie had a goal and an assist in seven games, another player who the team felt had potential.

However, considering that it takes time to develop cohesiveness with new teammates on the ice, this break certainly won’t make it easier for either player to improve and adjust to a new team, especially if the regular season is cut short or cancelled.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Stretch Run Storylines: Chicago Blackhawks

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As things stand, the NHL is planning to have games resume at some point over the coming weeks.  Assuming the regular season continues, there will be plenty of things to watch for over the stretch run.  Over the coming weeks, PHR will examine the top stretch run storylines for each team.  We wrap up our look at the Central Division with Chicago.

It has been another disappointing season for the Blackhawks who sit at the bottom of the division with their only hope of a playoff spot being an expanded field.  For the most part, their veterans have underachieved which has to be a bit concerning to a team that has several key veteran players on long-term deals.  However, one of their few veterans not on a long-term pact is one of their top storylines for the stretch run.

Bridge Or Long-Term?

The Blackhawks have limited cap space to work with as they have more than $73MM in commitments already for next season.  Despite that, center Dylan Strome and Dominik Kubalik are a pair of youngsters that will be vying for a long-term pact if the team can free up some extra funds over the offseason.  How they fare down the stretch may ultimately help GM Stan Bowman which one to try to sign to something other than a bridge deal if the cap room is there.

Strome hasn’t been as productive as he was last season, his first with Chicago but that wasn’t entirely unexpected.  After going from being a middling player in Arizona to nearly a point-per-game player, this season was going to fall somewhere in between that.  The end result hasn’t been half bad as he has picked up a dozen goals and 26 assists in 58 games.  He now has 116 games in a Blackhawks uniform but is that enough to get a long-term deal?  If the regular season plays out in full, another 12 games could actually help sway things.

Kubalik has been one of the bigger pleasant surprises in the league this season, jumping in with 30 goals in his rookie campaign.  Of course, he’s not as young as most rookies are as he’ll be 25 at the start of next season.  That has him two years away from unrestricted free agency and arbitration-eligible already.  A bridge deal walks him to UFA eligibility but with only 68 NHL games as a track record, that’s not much to go off of.  Like Strome, playing out the final dozen games may wind up helping (or hurting) his chances of a long-term pact.

Crawford’s Future

When the Blackhawks signed Robin Lehner to a one-year deal in the summer, it felt like a potential sign that they had decided that Corey Crawford’s days as their full-time starter were over.  But Crawford slightly outperformed Lehner in a virtual platoon situation and Lehner was eventually dealt to Vegas at the trade deadline.  Does that mean that Crawford is again the goalie of the future?

That’s what he’s certainly hoping for but it’s far from a given that he has done enough to show it.  He has had difficulty staying healthy in recent years and he’s 35.  There aren’t a lot of legitimate starters at that age still out there.

But let’s look back at their cap situation.  With Strome and Kubalik to re-sign on top of their current commitments, they can’t afford to be shopping at the top end of the market in free agency.  They’ll need to go with a more affordable option which could very well be Crawford.  Before the pandemic, it certainly seemed like a short-term contract extension was quite possible and a good finish to the year could help his chances of getting the strong side of the platoon next year.

Reverse Standings Watch

What do teams do when they’re out of contention?  They keep looking at the standings but instead of looking up, they look down.

As things currently sit, Chicago is ahead of eight teams in the overall standings but half of the teams behind them are within five points.  That margin is certainly erasable if the NHL plays out a full 82-game schedule and it’s notable that two of their remaining 12 contests are against teams in that group just behind them.

It’s a given that players like Kirby Dach, Adam Boqvist, and Nicolas Beaudin will get more playing time down the stretch and for Chicago fans, that will certainly be something to watch for.  How they perform will go a long way towards determining whether the Blackhawks stay where they are or fall back a bit and improve their odds at the Draft Lottery (whenever it happens to be rescheduled for following its postponement earlier this week).

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Stretch Run Storylines: Minnesota Wild

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As things stand, the NHL is planning to have games resume at some point over the coming weeks.  Assuming the regular season continues, there will be plenty of things to watch for over the stretch run.  Over the coming weeks, PHR will examine the top stretch run storylines for each team.  We continue our look at the Central Division with Minnesota.

It has been another disappointing season for the Wild who currently are on the outside looking in at a playoff spot.  New GM Bill Guerin has been aggressive in recent months in terms of shaking things up, moving out Jason Zucker while making a change behind the bench as well.  The effect of that coaching change is among their storylines to watch for down the stretch.

Evason’s Future

The decision to part with Bruce Boudreau last month came as a bit of a surprise even though Minnesota was struggling at the time.  It seemed like the likelier time to make a move would have been the summer but Guerin opted not to wait and installed assistant Dean Evason as the new bench boss on an interim basis for the rest of the season.

The early returns have certainly been promising as the Wild are 8-4-0 since the change and as a result, they’ve crept back into the playoff race and sit only one point outside of the final Wild Card spot in the Western Conference.  Despite the strong start under his tenure, Guerin indicated earlier this month that he wasn’t willing to remove the interim tag at this time and will make a decision on Evason’s status at the end of the season.

That makes the stretch run (and possible playoff appearance depending on the format) extremely important for the first time NHL head coach.  A good showing would certainly bolster his chances of getting the full-time gig but if they falter, Guerin could go elsewhere.  There’s a lot riding on their final few games (assuming they actually occur).

Dubnyk’s Struggles

While Devan Dubnyk’s save percentage dipped a bit in 2018-19 while his goals against average went up a couple of points, he still seemed like a safe bet to be at least an average starter this season.  That hasn’t exactly happened.

The 33-year-old has posted a save percentage of just .890 this season.  That’s his lowest one since his rookie year and the last time he had one around that territory (2013-14 at .891), three different organizations were paying him to be a platoon goalie for Montreal’s AHL affiliate.  His goals against average of 3.35 is his worst since that 2013-14 campaign.  Those are not starting-caliber numbers; those aren’t even backup level.

That’s why Alex Stalock was given a chance to run as the starter and to his credit, he made the most of it in the weeks leading up to the break in the schedule.  But he has been a backup (or third-stringer) for his entire career so asking him to keep up his level of play isn’t realistic.

Eventually, they will need Dubnyk to get back to his form from a year ago.  This is where the break should do him some good as some time away certainly can’t hurt.  If you look back at how he bounced back from his ugly 2013-14 season, he quickly rediscovered his form with Arizona which helped land him in Minnesota where he had fared well until now.  They’ll certainly be counting on a similar bounce back down the stretch.

Galchenyuk’s Future

When the Canadiens signed Alex Galchenyuk to a three-year deal three offseasons ago, it set him up to potentially be one of the most sought after forwards in unrestricted free agency.  Here was a top-three pick only a year removed from a 30-goal campaign and he’d be hitting the open market at 26 in the prime of his career.

Things haven’t gone quite as planned, however.  Galchenyuk was eventually moved to Arizona where his numbers declined.  He started this season in Pittsburgh and didn’t do much there and saw his value plummet to the point where he was effectively a salary matching throw-in as part of the Zucker trade.

Prior to the pause, Galchenyuk was actually showing some signs of improvement.  He had seven points in 14 games, a pace that was comparable to his output from a year before despite averaging a little less than 15 minutes a night.  If he is able to return and sustain that pace, he’ll at least position himself to have interest from a few teams on the open market, including potentially Minnesota.  But if he struggles down the stretch (or even if play doesn’t resume), he could go from possibly being one of the more intriguing free agents to one that will have to wait a while in the offseason to find his next team.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Stretch Run Storylines: Nashville Predators

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As things stand, the NHL is planning to have games resume at some point over the coming weeks.  Assuming the regular season continues, there will be plenty of things to watch for over the stretch run.  Over the coming weeks, PHR will examine the top stretch run storylines for each team.  We continue our look at the Central Division with Nashville.

It’s been an inconsistent season for the Nashville Predators, who many felt could challenge for the Central Division title this season. Instead, the team struggled out of the gate, which included a six-game losing streak in November and by early January, general manager David Poile made a decision to let go of long-time coach Peter Laviolette and associate coach Kevin McCarthy after the team had a 19-15-7 record. The team replaced him with recently fired coach John Hynes, who took over and saw the team fight its way back into the final wild card spot, but with continued inconsistent play and several teams breathing down their necks, the team will have to fight to remain in the playoffs.

Questionable Offense

When looking at the team’s top four point producers so far this year, the Nashville Predators have two defenseman in their top four, including defenseman Roman Josi, who leads the team in scoring by far with 65 points this season. That is fine when the team runs its offense through its defense. However, the team’s first line players, however, aren’t having great seasons, which has only made things more challenging.

While there is still plenty of time left, assuming the regular season resumes, Filip Forsberg looks to be heading for a career-low in goals. After never posting lower than 26 goals in his tenure with Nashville, the 25-year-old has just 21 goals and 48 points and still hasn’t been able to take his impressive game to that next level and develop into the star that many people had envisioned.

To make matters worse, Poile went out of his way to upgrade his defense by trading away P.K. Subban in the offseason and using that new-found money to sign center Matt Duchene to give the team a second dominant center. Duchene was expected to play the role of a major point producer after posting a 31-goal, 70-point season last year between Ottawa and Columbus. However, that hasn’t translated in his first year in Nashville as he has just 13 goals and 42 points through 66 games.

If Nashville wants to ensure a trip to the playoffs and maybe even surviving a round or two, the Predators must get more consistent play from their forwards. Even Viktor Arvidsson, who has averaged 30 goals for the three previous years has just 15 goals this season.

Goaltending Issues

A year ago, there were plenty of people that would have referred to the Predators’ goaltending tandem of Pekka Rinne and Juuse Saros as one of the best in the league. However, that hasn’t been the case so far this year.

The 36-year-old Rinne started a new two-year, $10MM deal this season, but few expected a major drop-off after he posted a 2.42 GAA and a .918 save percentage in 56 appearances last year. Unfortunately for the Predators, those numbers took a nosedive. In 36 games this season, Rinne has a 3.17 GAA and a .895 save percentage, which has allowed Saros to take an even bigger role, while also leaving questions on how wise it was to give Rinne two more years.

After a slow start, Saros has been much more successful and has taken on the starting role, having appeared in 16 games since February.  The 27-year-old netminder has a pedestrian 2.70 GAA in 40 appearances (a career high), but also has a .914 save percentage, winning 10 of those appearances.

The team needs Saros to continue his conversion into the team’s everyday starter, but also needs to hope that the break rejuvenates Rinne, who the team needs to bounce back and take some of the responsibility off Saros.

Coaching Transition

Often when teams fire their coaches at midseason, like the Predators did with Laviolette in January, the team hopes the change will inspire the team to take their game up a notch and show they are as talented as management had assumed at the start of the season. So far Hynes has the team at 16-11-1, only a slight improvement, yet while the team has been inconsistent since Hynes has taken over, Nashville has three three-game and three two-game winning streaks this year.

One would have to imagine that the layoff could benefit Hynes more than anything as he has more time to study tape and adjust his coaching techniques and lines to improve the team when they get back on the ice.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Stretch Run Storylines: Winnipeg Jets

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As things stand, the NHL is planning to have games resume at some point over the coming weeks.  Assuming the regular season continues, there will be plenty of things to watch for over the stretch run.  Over the coming weeks, PHR will examine the top stretch run storylines for each team.  We continue our look at the Central Division with Winnipeg.

It has been a tough year for the Jets.  They lost several key members of their back end over the summer and have been hit hard by the injury bug throughout the season.  Despite that, a hot stretch of games just before the suspension of play got them back into the playoff picture.  Will their back end be able to hold up the rest of the way?  That’s one of Winnipeg’s key storylines down the stretch.

Defensive Questions

Losing Jacob Trouba to trade, Tyler Myers and Ben Chiarot as free agents, and Dustin Byfuglien from the calamitous mess that is his situation is tough for anyone.  There’s no improving your back end when you lose that many key players at once, even with landing Neal Pionk in the Trouba trade.

Pionk and Josh Morrissey lead Winnipeg’s defense corps that could best be described as patchwork.  Of the ten rearguards on their roster before the roster freeze kicked in, two are waiver claims and another was a non-tendered RFA last summer.  Two others are just beginning their NHL careers and another was a waiver claim in another organization last year and is best served as a seventh or eighth defender.  Dylan DeMelo was a shrewd addition by GM Kevin Cheveldayoff a little before the trade deadline but in a perfect world, he’s on the third pairing, not averaging over 21 minutes a night.

Is it a terrible group?  No.  But when compared to the other teams that they’re battling with for a playoff spot, it’s a definite downgrade.  This patchwork back end has held up quite well given the circumstances.  But as the pressure mounts, can they hold up or will the cracks start to become more evident?

And if we’re throwing out questions, how about some with Byfuglien.  While he was ruled out for the season before the trade deadline, could he be medically cleared to return if the break is long enough?  Would he even want to return to Winnipeg?  It’s a longshot but he’d certainly give them a boost if he came back.

Hellebuyck Holding Up

Quick trivia question – who leads the league in shots faced this season?  The answer is Connor Hellebuyck who also is tied for the NHL lead in games played with Montreal’s Carey Price.  A year ago, Laurent Brossoit was one of the top backups in the league and was pushing for more playoff time.  This season, he has been well below average, even for second stringers.  As a result, Hellebuyck has had to carry a huge workload.

This is where the shutdown could help the Jets.  With the extended break, he should be fresh for the stretch run.  However, it’s also quite possible (if not probable) that there will be a lot of back-to-backs if the regular season resumes to get as many games in as they can before the playoffs.  They may need Hellebuyck to play both ends of those given Brossoit’s struggles this season as with being a bubble team, they can’t afford to risk it.

So far this season, Hellebuyck has only played both ends of a back-to-back just once and only made one start in that situation in 2018-19 (and didn’t make it through the game).  Suffice it to say, he’s going to be in some uncharted waters if the regular season resumes.

Scoring Race

There will likely be a new scoring champion in Winnipeg after Blake Wheeler had led the Jets in each of the past two seasons.  But who that will be is something to watch for.

Winger Kyle Connor has already established new career highs in goals (38), assists (35), and points (73), eclipsing the point per game mark for the first time in his young career.  Meanwhile, center Mark Scheifele was on pace for new career bests in assists and points before the shutdown and he’s also at 73.  (Wheeler is still technically in the mix at 65 but would need quite the productive stretch run to contend for his third straight scoring title.)

Connor’s surge makes Winnipeg’s decision to sign him to a seven-year, $50MM contract partway through training camp look a lot better.  With only two full seasons under his belt before this one, that type of commitment certainly carried some risk.  Meanwhile, Scheifele continues to be one of the top value deals in the league with a $6.125MM AAV through the 2023-24 campaign.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Stretch Run Storylines: Dallas Stars

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As things stand, the NHL is planning to have games resume at some point over the coming weeks.  Assuming the regular season continues, there will be plenty of things to watch for over the stretch run.  Over the coming weeks, PHR will examine the top stretch run storylines for each team.  We continue our look at the Central Division with Dallas.

The Stars have had a bit of a tumultuous season but nevertheless find themselves in a top-three seed in the Central Division.  An early season coaching change shocked many while a lack of production from their top players has been more than a little perplexing.  Those themes have been prevalent throughout the season and will continue to be key storylines down the stretch and into the postseason.

Offensive Struggles

On paper, a core of Tyler Seguin, Jamie Benn, Joe Pavelski, and Alexander Radulov looks pretty strong.  Seguin had six straight seasons of at least 72 points under his belt, Benn had reached 69 or more in five of the last six years, Radulov had two straight seasons of 72 in first two years with the team, and Pavelski came into the year with six straight campaigns of 64 points or more.  Yes, it’s an aging group so a slight decline would have been understandable.  But this hasn’t been a slight decline.

As things stand, none of them have reached the 20-goal mark.  Only Seguin has reached the 40-point mark, checking at 50.  Benn and Radulov have a shot at 40 points if the remaining scheduled games are played out while Pavelski getting there would be a longshot.

Not surprisingly, the Stars check in at 29th overall in goals scored.  They are the only team outside of the top-20 in that department to be holding down a playoff spot.  They can’t afford to rely on Denis Gurianov to continue to lead the team in goals if they want to be a postseason contender.  For context, he’s their only 20-goal player (20 on the dot) and spent a bit of time in October in the minors after seeing minimal ice time early on.

Some teams need an uptick in scoring from their primary players.  Some need a secondary scoring boost.  Dallas needs all of that and then some.  If Seguin, Benn, Radulov, and Pavelski can get back to the level they were at even a year ago (and this break could certainly help with that), it would go a long way towards fixing their scoring woes and making them a much bigger playoff threat in the process.

Interim Or Permanent?

It was a big surprise when Rick Bowness was asked to take over for Jim Montgomery behind the bench after the latter was dismissed for cause back in December.  At the time of the move, it was expected that the interim tag would be in place for the rest of the regular season and they would re-assess at that time.

So how has he fared?  Clearly, the offense is sputtering but at the same time, they have been the top defensive team in the Western Conference in terms of goals allowed which has allowed them to stay in a playoff spot for most of the year.  Basically, not a whole lot has changed from the transition from Montgomery to Bowness as the veterans were scuffling offensively at the start of the year while Ben Bishop and Anton Khudobin have provided strong goaltending.

Is basically keeping the team afloat enough to justify the permanent job?  Considering the odd circumstances in which he took over, accomplishing that is notable.  However, it certainly feels like how they fare down the stretch and postseason (if those games get played) will ultimately determine whether or not GM Jim Nill sticks with him or goes after another bench boss in the offseason.

Early Extension For Heiskanen?

Last year was a good one for defenseman Miro Heiskanen who finished just shy of being a Calder Trophy finalist.  After putting up 33 points, he seemed like a prime candidate for a big jump in production which would have him in line for a big raise when he became eligible for an early extension in July.  Of course, the big jump in production hasn’t happened (putting him in line with just about everyone else on the team) although he has collected 35 points which is good enough to put him third on the team in scoring.

Even so, the small uptick offensively will call into question whether or not an extension is the right way to go as it’s possible that Heiskanen could be leaving money on the table without a 40-point season under his belt.  If regular season games resume and he picks up some points or is productive in the playoffs, he might be able to boost his value enough to make an early extension justifiable.  If not, waiting may be the better option so whether or not the NHL returns may be particularly important for him.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Stretch Run Storylines: Colorado Avalanche

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As things stand, the NHL is planning to have games resume at some point over the coming weeks.  Assuming the regular season continues, there will be plenty of things to watch for over the stretch run.  Over the coming weeks, PHR will examine the top stretch run storylines for each team.  We continue our look at the Central Division with Colorado.

After making somewhat of a surprise appearance in the second round last season, the Avalanche have built off of that and have become one of the top threats in the Western Conference.  They’ve managed to do so despite a litany of injuries to key players.  That shouldn’t be an issue when play resumes, making it a top storyline for not only them but the rest of the West as well.

Return To Health

Just before the suspension of play, Colorado had just found out that Nathan MacKinnon was going to miss a couple of weeks while Cale Makar had just returned from an upper-body injury issue.  Having them at full strength is nice…and that’s only the tip of the iceberg.

Philipp Grubauer will return from his lower-body issue which will bolster their goaltending tandem.  Mikko Rantanen will be ready to go from his upper-body ailment; both players have been out for roughly a month.  Nazem Kadri plays more than any forward not on their top line and will be back from his lower-body injury.  And while we’re at it, Matt Calvert and Andre Burakovsky will also be ready to go from their lower-body issues.

If you’re keeping track, that’s two top line forwards, a second line center, two middle six wingers, and a starting goalie that will all be back.  Calling that a huge upgrade to their roster would be an understatement and positions the Avs quite nicely for a stretch run or quick start to the postseason.

Goaltending Decision

Let’s go back to Grubauer.  Prior to his injury, he had become more of the clear cut starter.  But when he went down, Pavel Francouz ran off a 2.40 GAA with a .918 SV% in 13 appearances (one being in relief of Grubauer when he was hurt).  He more than capably held down the fort and earned himself a two-year contract extension in the process.  At the same time, his play also suggested that he is worthy of more playing time.

All of a sudden, there isn’t a guaranteed number one option anymore.  When it comes to the regular season, there’s nothing wrong with that and platoon situations can be quite useful during that time.  More teams have gone with that approach and the results have been largely positive.  So for however many regular season games are played (if any), they’re in good shape.

But who’s going to lead them in the postseason?  Teams typically pick one and stick with that goalie throughout though Grubauer himself was one of the exceptions a couple of years ago in Washington.  Six weeks ago, it looked like Grubauer was the favorite to start.  But Francouz’s performance in his absence suggests he may be worthy of the number one job now.  A return to regular season games could help solve this but if the NHL jumps right into the playoffs, Jared Bednar has quite a decision to make.

Quest For 100

Two years ago, MacKinnon came up just shy of the 100-point mark as he had 97 in 74 games.  Last season, he got even closer; while his point per game average went down, he played in all 82 contests and got to 99 points.  This season, he was well on his way to getting there and likely would have hit that mark even though he’d have missed this week due to injury.  He currently sits at 93 points in 69 games with his 1.35 point per game average being the best of his career.

If regular season play resumes, it’s quite possible MacKinnon will get to 100 even if the schedule winds up being truncated by a few games.  If not, he’ll take aim at that plateau next season and will instead have to settle for leading the team in scoring by a country mile.  (He currently sits 43 points ahead of Makar who is second in points with 50.)

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Stretch Run Storylines: St. Louis Blues

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As things stand, the NHL is planning to have games resume at some point over the coming weeks.  Assuming the regular season continues, there will be plenty of things to watch for over the stretch run.  Over the coming weeks, PHR will examine the top stretch run storylines for each team.  First up is a look at the Central Division, beginning with St. Louis.

The Blues had a bit of a sluggish start to their season with just three wins in their first eight games but since then, they have been the top team in the Western Conference and as a result, they sit atop the division as well as the Western Conference.  That has the defending Stanley Cup Champions sitting in good shape whenever play resumes, even more so considering one of their top players will return which highlights their top storylines to watch for.

Tarasenko’s Return

Shoulder injuries have plagued winger Vladimir Tarasenko for a while now and another one suffered in his tenth game of the season has caused him to miss most of the year.  However, at the time he underwent surgery, the projected timeline for his return was late March or early April which made GM Doug Armstrong decide not to use LTIR relief to acquire a replacement, a move that seems particularly prescient now.  If they had acquired someone using LTIR, they wouldn’t be able to activate Tarasenko until they found a way to get in cap compliance and with the trade deadline now long passed, that would be next to impossible.

Barring any unexpected setbacks, Tarasenko should be able to return to the lineup whenever play resumes which will give a team that already has hovered around the top-ten in scoring this season its top scoring threat back.  There is bound to be some rust although some of that will be offset by this extended layoff for everyone.  Getting his timing back before the postseason gets underway would be a big boost to a team that’s certainly going to be capable for another long playoff run.

Pietrangelo’s Increasing Value

The contracts given to Erik Karlsson ($11.5MM) and Drew Doughty ($11MM) have helped place the spotlight on defenseman Alex Pietrangelo who is now pegged to get a significant raise on his current $6.5MM AAV.  Heading into the year, some had suggested a deal in the $9MM range could be his target but that may very well be on the low side.

Very quietly, the captain has put up a career year offensively.  He already has a new top mark in goals (16) while his assists per game and points per game marks are also the best of his career.  If the NHL resumes with some regular season action, he will almost certainly set new highs in those categories as well.  After having a bit of a quieter year offensively in 2018-19, he has rebounded quite nicely and that’s only going to help his value.

As things stand, the Blues can’t afford to re-sign him and fill out the rest of their roster even if the Upper Limit of the salary cap goes up slightly.  (And with everything that’s happening, that’s not as likely as it was just a few weeks ago.)  As a result, it is a distinct possibility that Pietrangelo is playing out his final days in St. Louis.

Scoring Race

The battle for the top spot in the division should be tightly contested as Colorado is only two spots behind them and this layoff gives them a chance to get some of their players healthy as well.  But there is another race that is certainly intriguing, the battle to lead the team in points.

While St. Louis doesn’t have anyone near the point per game mark, they have four players within four points of each other for the team lead in Ryan O’Reilly (61), David Perron (60), Brayden Schenn (58), and Jaden Schwartz (57).  Four points isn’t a big gap so it’s quite possible that this particular race could go down to the wire.

O’Reilly and Perron are signed for two more years after this one while Schenn signed an eight-year extension back in October that kicks in for 2020-21.  But Schwartz will be entering the final season of his deal this summer which makes him eligible for a contract extension.  A strong finish to his campaign will certainly bolster his bargaining power.  If he can get that team lead, it’ll be even stronger.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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