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Offseason Checklist: Calgary Flames

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The offseason has arrived for three-quarters of the NHL for teams that either missed the playoffs or were eliminated in the first round. Accordingly, it’s now time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months. Next up is a look at Calgary.

Gone are the inconsistent yet high-ceiling Flames teams led by Johnny Gaudreau. After another underwhelming campaign, this time under first-year head coach Ryan Huska, Calgary failed to make the postseason in back-to-back years since 2013 and 2014. With rookie general manager Craig Conroy entering his second season at the helm, he has some work to do to continue his aggressive retooling of the club over the past few months and steer them back toward playoff contention in the coming years.

Make A Goaltending Decision

Is Dustin Wolf ready?

That’s likely the question that makes Conroy lose the most sleep this summer. His star goaltending prospect’s ascension from being selected 214th overall in 2019 is well-documented. After three incredible seasons with AHL Stockton and Calgary, compiling a 2.29 GAA, .926 SV% and 11 shutouts in 141 appearances, it’s clear the California native is ready for a longer look.

He got a longer look this year, though, and failed to truly confirm he’s ready for NHL duties. His numbers, while better than the older Daniel Vladař’s, were unimpressive, posting a .893 SV% in 15 starts and two relief appearances. It wasn’t due to poor team defense, either – his -10.1 goals saved above expected were nearly on par with Vladař’s -12.5, per MoneyPuck.

While he’s likely suited for a backup role, especially if Vladař is his only competition, that’s likely not the question Conroy grapples with. Starter Jacob Markström nearly ended up with the Devils at this year’s trade deadline in a rather public saga that involved him waiving his no-move clause only for a deal not to get done. The Devils, who didn’t make any longer-term moves to shore up their crease, will likely re-engage this summer. Even if it’s not New Jersey, Markström could still waive his NMC for someone else after expressing frustration with the way things played out prior to the deadline.

That would leave Wolf and Vladař, the latter of whom will be an unrestricted free agent in 2025, as the Flames’ goaltending tandem next season unless a goalie is added in return for Markström. It’s hard to imagine Wolf not getting the majority of the starts in that scenario, especially after Vladař’s poor showing this season, something Calgary should be cautious of rushing him into.

Solve The Huberdeau Enigma

A constant of the last two seasons in Calgary has been highly underwhelming play from winger Jonathan Huberdeau. After being acquired from the Panthers in the Matthew Tkachuk trade and signed to an eight-year, $84MM extension that kicked in this season, the NHL’s assist leader just two years ago has managed just 27 goals, 80 assists and 107 points in 160 games as a Flame. In his final season in Florida, the Canadian winger lit up the league with 85 assists and 115 points in just 80 games.

The dropoff has confused many. Most of his underlying metrics haven’t changed to explain the lack of production. A coaching change from Darryl Sutter in 2022-23 to Huska this season did nothing.

An NHL team is just that – a team, not an individual player. But at such a steep cap hit of $10.5MM through the end of the decade with a no-move clause, it’s worth having an organizational discussion about how Huska can implement systems that help Huberdeau get back to the point-per-game plateau. Whether it’s solely a systems change that unlocks Huberdeau or if Calgary makes some coaching staff alterations or targeted player acquisitions remains to be seen, but if they want to get back to playoff contention in the next few seasons, they simply need more out of him.

Reconstruct The Defense

Calgary got rid of half their blue-line regulars via trade this season, unloading Noah Hanifin, Chris Tanev and Nikita Zadorov for a considerable combined haul. All were on expiring contracts.

While Conroy’s work was solid, making the trades was only half the battle. With depth defenders Dennis Gilbert, Oliver Kylington and Jordan Oesterle needing new contracts to avoid unrestricted free agency in July, he has some decisions to make about how much money he wants to invest in reshaping the Flames’ blue line next year.

Daniil Miromanov looked good after being picked up from the Golden Knights in the Hanifin deal, posting seven points in 20 games down the stretch as he logged over 21 minutes per game. He’s penciled in to replace one of the departed defenders, joining Rasmus Andersson and MacKenzie Weegar. That leaves Joel Hanley, Nikita Okhotyuk, Brayden Pachal, Ilya Solovyov, and any UFAs they choose to re-sign to compete for around four spots. It’s not the most inspiring group. Is it smart to make a play for a big name in free agency this summer? There is no shortage of intriguing names.

Don’t Strike Out On Draft Day

The Flames have done just okay in the past few seasons to acquire some high-ceiling talent without having top-10 picks, namely 2021 first-rounder Matthew Coronato. However, they’ll have a much better chance of landing a true impact prospect late next month, holding the ninth overall pick at the 2024 draft in Vegas.

If Kelowna Rockets winger Tij Iginla is still available, he’ll almost certainly be a Flame. The son of all-time Flames great Jarome, who’s now back with the team in a front-office role, is tabbed to go somewhere between sixth and 15th overall by most public rankings but is likely to go near the higher end of that range with nine goals in 11 WHL playoff games. He may not be available by the time Calgary picks.

A backup plan should involve a high-ceiling pick, either at forward or defense. Calgary’s prospect pool is fine – a number of names there likely have NHL futures – but it lacks any true blue-chip players outside of Coronato, who lit up the AHL for more than a point per game in his first professional season.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Offseason Checklist: Seattle Kraken

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The offseason has arrived for three-quarters of the NHL for teams that either missed the playoffs or were eliminated in the first round.  Accordingly, it’s now time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Seattle.

What a difference a year can make.  After the Kraken surprised many by making it to the second round in their second season of existence, expectations were relatively high coming into this season.  However, they weren’t able to sustain that success and instead of building on it, they missed the playoffs altogether.  As a result, GM Ron Francis will have a busy few months ahead of him.  Here’s what should be on his to-do list this summer.

Hire A Head Coach

Despite his previously-signed contract extension not beginning until July, Francis decided to make a change behind the bench, firing Dave Hakstol after three seasons with the team.  The Kraken played to a 107-112-27 record under Hakstol’s tutelage, a record that’s relatively respectable considering they were an expansion franchise but their playoff run in 2022-23 accelerated the expectations and they clearly came up short, warranting the change in Francis’ mind.

Seattle has a pair of assistants who could make a real case for the role.  Dave Lowry has some experience running an NHL bench having taken over from Paul Maurice in Winnipeg midway through the 2021-22 season after Maurice unexpectedly resigned.  Meanwhile, Jay Leach has worked his way up through the coaching ranks and is someone who has been speculated to have had some head coaching interviews in the past.  It feels like a matter of time before he gets a chance whether it’s filling this vacancy or going somewhere else.

Alternatively, they could also look to their farm team which is run by former NHL bench boss Dan Bylsma.  He has run Coachella Valley the past two seasons, leading them to the Calder Cup Final last season while the team posted a .715 points percentage in both years.  Bylsma has head coaching experience at the top level with Detroit and Buffalo but hasn’t run an NHL bench since the 2016-17 campaign.

It would appear that Francis is looking for someone who can help this group get back to the playoffs over kicking off any sort of rebuild.  Accordingly, it stands to reason that if they look outside the organization for a new head coach, they’ll look for someone with experience.  Among the options currently available are Craig Berube, Dean Evason, Todd McLellan, Sheldon Keefe, and Jay Woodcroft.

Seattle technically doesn’t have to have a head coach in place by the start of free agency but if the new bench boss will have any sort of input on who the team pursues in the summer, they’ll want that hire in place well before July 1st.

Re-Sign Beniers

Heading into the season, it looked like Matthew Beniers was in a strong position to secure a long-term agreement and cement himself as their franchise fixture up front.  While that could still happen, his performance in his sophomore campaign has made that long-term deal a bit less certain.

Beniers burned the first year of his contract late in the 2021-22 campaign when he impressed with nine points in ten games.  He didn’t produce quite as high of a point-per-game rate last season but still managed 57 points in 80 regular season games, earning him the Calder Trophy.  He then followed it up with seven points in 14 contests, not a bad result for his first taste of playoff action.  Based on that, expectations were high heading into his second full season.

This season, Beniers was Seattle’s top center fairly regularly and the results were mixed.  He got off to a particularly slow start, notching just five goals in the first 39 games (spanning October to December) and while he picked up the pace after that, he still managed just ten in the final 40 contests.  For someone who was expected to push closer to the 25-goal, 70-point mark, it’s safe to say he underachieved.

Has he shown enough to get a max-term (or close to it) contract, one that would likely carry an AAV in the $8MM range?  Or would one (or both) of the two sides prefer a shorter-term bridge deal to allow for more evaluation time?  This feels like the more probable outcome at this point.

So, what would that bridge deal cost?  The three-year, $17.25MM contract that Anaheim gave Trevor Zegras last summer stands out as a viable comparable.  Zegras’ numbers at the end of his entry-level deal were a bit better but with the salary cap set to jump up by around $4MM, that should balance out the lower production.  It’s worth noting that like Zegras had last year, Beniers has five years of team control remaining so Seattle can comfortably go with a three-year bridge deal without running the risk of their key middleman filing for arbitration and walking himself straight to UFA eligibility.  These contracts can sometimes take until right up to training camp so it’s possible this won’t be resolved for a while yet.

Add Scoring Help

In 2022-23, Seattle was sixth in the league in goals scored.  The offense-by-committee approach worked with the end result being a group that was more impressive than the sum of its parts.  However, it’s not always easy to have success with that route and even with bringing back the majority of the same group, things didn’t go as well this season.  Instead, they dropped 72 goals and slipped to 29th in total goals scored.

Is this group going to struggle that much moving forward?  Probably not and they’ll be hoping that a new coach will help improve things on that front.  However, it’s also unrealistic to think that this core can go back to pushing to be in the top five in goals scored league-wide; the realistic outcome is somewhere in between.  But that’s still a pretty big divergence in terms of range.

As a result, it would make a lot of sense for Seattle to pursue some scoring help this summer.  They’re not in a bad situation cap-wise with around $23MM in cap room, per CapFriendly.  Yes, a new deal for Beniers (and for Eeli Tolvanen who is arbitration-eligible and should be eyeing a fair-sized raise on the $1.45MM he made this year) will cut into that but they’ll still have ample space to pursue an upgrade or two beyond potentially adding someone like Shane Wright into the lineup full-time.

While some teams might want to pursue their upgrades via the trade route, it would make more sense for Seattle to look at free agency.  Their prospect pool is still relatively thin, understandably so considering they’ve only been around for three years.  With that in mind, trading from that pool isn’t as desirable as trying to sign a player outright on the open market, even if they have to pay a bit of a premium to do so.

Look Into Goalie Market

When Seattle made its expansion picks, their goaltending wasn’t looking too shabby.  Vitek Vanecek had some upside, Chris Driedger was coming off his breakout year, and Joey Daccord was a third-stringer with some upside.  After flipping Vanecek for a second-round pick and signing then-Vezina finalist Philipp Grubauer, it looked like a real strength on paper.

Of course, things haven’t quite gone as planned.  Driedger struggled in his first season with the team and has been injured or in the minors since then.  Meanwhile, Grubauer hasn’t come close to living up to his $5.9MM per season deal, one that still has three more years left on it.  Daccord had a breakout showing this year but is he a sure-fire number one goalie moving forward or did a lot go right this season and he’s a potential regression candidate?

Given the potential uncertainty, Francis would be wise to at least examine what’s out there in the goalie market this summer.  With all the speculation surrounding some veteran underachieving netminders, it feels like this could be a year that we see some change of scenery trades, swapping one underperformer for another in the hopes that a new team, a new system, and a new goalie coach will do the trick.  There are some of those around the same price point as Grubauer with multiple years left so perhaps there is an opportunity to try to shake things up there.

Failing that, Driedger is set to hit the open market this summer and will be in search of a full-time NHL backup job so it’s unlikely he returns to AHL Coachella Valley.  The Firebirds have a pair of youngsters signed for next season in Niklas Kokko and Victor Ostman but neither of them will be NHL-ready for a while.  Accordingly, at a minimum, the Kraken should be on the hunt for a veteran third-stringer to give them some more NHL-ready support if injuries strike or someone falters.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

PHR Mailbag: Playoffs, Bruins, Jets, Devils, Draft

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include some discussion about the playoffs, what New Jersey’s big-game hunting could look like in the coming weeks, and much more.  With all the questions submitted, we’ll break it into three columns between now and next weekend so if yours doesn’t appear here, check back in one of those pieces.

schwa: Few questions here:

What was the biggest surprise to you in the first round?
What’s your favorite matchup for the second?
What potential matchup excites you most for CFs / SCF?

There weren’t a lot of surprises for me in the first round but Winnipeg flaming out would be the biggest.  While I had concerns that their core group – one that has been more miss than hit in the postseason – could sustain a long run, I thought they really had a chance to get past Colorado, especially with Alexandar Georgiev struggling mightily down the stretch.  But the Avs picked them apart and made it look easy which is hard to do to a team that put up 110 points in the regular season.  While I had the Jets winning, the fact the Avalanche did isn’t the biggest surprise.  But how they did it was something I wasn’t expecting.

Going into the round, it was Colorado and Dallas and that hasn’t changed.  The Stars are one of the most balanced teams in the league but had the toughest first-round battle.  They can match the Avalanche talent-wise but are they going to wear down as this series went on with how hard the Vegas matchup was?  These are two of the top teams in the NHL but that question is going to linger for me.

For Conference Final matchups, I think Edmonton and Colorado would be intriguing just for the potential for some back-and-forth, high-octane hockey that we don’t typically see that deep into the playoffs.  In the East, it looks like the Rangers are coming out of the Metropolitan and if I’m picking for what might be the more interesting series from a watching perspective, it’d be Florida.  Then, for the Cup Final, the Avs and Rangers.  If I was predicting what was going to happen, that’s probably not where I’d go but those would be some compelling series.

Nha Trang: Will the numerous pundits who predicted that the Bruins were going to go down in the biggest first-round upset enjoy the crow they’re being served, or will they collectively pretend they never made such a prediction and hope people have forgotten?

While we didn’t publish our picks, I’ll be up front and say I had Toronto winning that series.  It wasn’t my biggest upset prediction (Nashville over Vancouver which also didn’t pan out was) but I thought the Maple Leafs would be able to score enough to get through this round and then fall to Florida again.  Frankly, it was a close enough series on paper heading in that I don’t think many would have had that as their biggest upset.

As to your question, I’m sure some will try to pretend they didn’t pick it but that’s the beauty of internet archiving; anyone who posted their picks has those picks saved somewhere.  But collectively, no, I don’t think there would have been any group effort to deny the existence of those selections.

Besides, it’s not as if the Bruins ran away with that series.  It took seven games and three attempts to clinch it with the winning goal coming in overtime.  It was a pretty tightly played series overall so if you’re hoping to see some ‘I was wrong about the Bruins’ comments, they might have to get a little deeper into the postseason and win a bit more convincingly.

Cla23: Do you see Sean Monahan signing long-term with the Jets?

Do you see coach Bowness sign an extension or will he choose to retire and spend his time with his beautiful wife? After the scary year they had on a personal/health level.

If he retires, is it Scott Arniel’s time to be head coach?

When it comes to Monahan, a lot of it is going to revolve around what he’s looking for.  Is he looking to go to a contender?  Is he looking to maximize money?  Will the term of the contract be the top priority?  If he wants a longer-term deal, I think Winnipeg would have a very good chance at keeping him.  Monahan had a strong start to the year with Montreal and fit in quite well following the trade.  He fits on that roster as it’s currently constructed and Jets GM Kevin Cheveldayoff might be more inclined to offer up a longer-term agreement (despite his injury history) knowing it isn’t always easy attracting talent to Winnipeg.  If Monahan gets the term and at least close to the money he’s looking for, I could see him sticking around.

That said, if he wants to go try to play for a contender and is willing to take another short-term deal at a lesser rate to make that happen, then that probably pushes Winnipeg out of things.  We’ll see what his top priority will be for his next contract soon enough.

Obviously, we now know the answer to the Bowness question as he announced his retirement soon after this question was posed.  That didn’t come as much of a surprise to me for the reasons you noted in the question; this was the logical and expected outcome.

As for Arniel, the question I ask myself is this – is he getting any attention for the other vacancies around the league?  While teams don’t exactly divulge this information, it doesn’t seem like it at first glance.  So if Arniel isn’t garnering head coaching attention elsewhere, should he really be up for the top job with the Jets?  I think he’s a safe short-term pick and might be the favorite to land the role but all else being equal, he wouldn’t be my first choice, especially for a team that’s built to try to win now.  I’d be looking for a veteran who might have a shorter shelf life but a proven track record of getting quick results.

SpeakOfTheDevils: Devils said they are going “big-game hunting” this offseason.
Let’s apply this to both the coach and 1A goalie.
Who do they get? Realistically.

Is there a big-game type of coach out there?  Of the coaches that are currently available, is there a true headliner?  In terms of experience and success, it’s probably Joel Quenneville who may or may not be eligible to coach again.  Todd McLellan and Gerard Gallant qualify more as retreads at this point than big-name guys.  Craig Berube would be next but I could see him landing in Toronto.

If I was picking their next coach, I’d swing for upside.  As a result, I’d go right off the board for the coach (when it comes to who has been linked for the position) and pick Jay Leach as their new bench boss.  He’s paid his dues as an assistant and head coach in the minors and now three years as an assistant in Seattle.  He finished up his playing career in New Jersey’s organization as well so there’s a bit of familiarity with the market which helps.  In terms of ‘upside’ for a coach, he’d be near the top of the list so if they take a big swing, maybe it’s for upside over experience.  Having said that, you asked who I think they’ll get, not who I’d pick so for who I think they get, I’ll go with Jay Woodcroft, someone who might still have a perception as a coach with a bit of upside given that he’s still early on in his coaching career.

As for the goalie situation, I think they wind up with Jacob Markstrom.  It sounded like some of the money-related hurdles had been cleared closer to the deadline so if they rekindle talks at that point, they should be able to get something done.  Calgary’s asking price will probably have to come down given the other netminders that many expect to be available and that will help bridge the gap that existed when talks broke down in March.

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Offseason Checklist: Ottawa Senators

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The offseason has arrived for three-quarters of the NHL for teams that either missed the playoffs or were eliminated in the first round.  Accordingly, it’s now time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Ottawa.

Expectations were high for the Senators heading into the season.  While they moved Alex DeBrincat, they brought in Vladimir Tarasenko to help cover DeBrincat’s production.  They’d have a full season of Jakob Chychrun this time around and they hoped that Joonas Korpisalo would stabilize things between the pipes.  Not much went according to plan, however, resulting in both GM and coaching changes.  Steve Staios recently checked one big item off their to-do list with Travis Green being named as their new head coach but there is still plenty to work on in the coming months.

Add Defensive Help

On paper, the Senators have a solid top four on the back end but that hasn’t translated to much success on the defensive side of things.  The last time they finished better than 20th in goals allowed was back in 2016-17; they were 26th in that regard this season.  Part of that is goaltending – which has its own section coming up – but defensive structure has been a consistent issue for them.  That was part of the reason Jacques Martin was brought in as the interim coach down the stretch, to help bring in some more defensive fundamentals.

When it comes to their back end, Ottawa has some openings for upgrades.  Erik Brannstrom isn’t a guarantee to be tendered a $2MM qualifying offer with arbitration eligibility while Travis Hamonic is more of a seventh option at most at this point of his career.  Jacob Bernard-Docker is still developing and could become a reliable defender at some point but his spot isn’t entirely secure either.

One complicating factor Staios might encounter is Chychrun’s situation.  He’s entering the final year of his contract, one that pays a team-friendly $4.6MM.  It’s going to cost considerably more than that to re-sign him, however, and Chychrun didn’t exactly give off the impression that he’s eager to sign a long-term extension this summer.  If that is indeed the case, Staios might have to look at the possibility of moving him which won’t exactly help the state of their blueline.

There’s some reason for optimism when it comes to Ottawa’s back end.  A return to health for Thomas Chabot should help things while continued improvement from Jake Sanderson is also likely.  But even if they keep Chychrun, more help is needed.  And if they don’t keep him, they’re probably going to need to try to dip into the free agent waters to try to replace him.

Re-Sign Pinto

It was a strange year for Shane Pinto.  After being unable to come to terms on a new contract, he wound up being suspended for the first half of the season for violating the NHL’s sports wagering rules.  The Sens then rescinded all previous offers and in the end, he had to settle for the pro-rated league minimum upon being cleared to return, an amount that was lower than his qualifying offer last summer.

To his credit, Pinto didn’t show any signs of rust upon his return in January.  Instead, he became an impact player right away and recorded nine goals and 18 assists (a career-high) in the final 41 games while seeing his ice time jump to over 18 minutes a night.

Now, Pinto finds himself in exactly the same situation as he did a year ago.  He’s a restricted free agent and still doesn’t have salary arbitration rights.  He also didn’t truly get the chance to prove that his 20-goal, 35-point showing wasn’t an outlier as while he impressed in the final three months of the year, it’s still only a half-season sample size.

Have the Sens seen enough to commit a long-term agreement to him?  If they’re trying to buy extra years of club control, that should push the AAV past at least the $5MM mark, possibly even past the $6MM threshold on a max-term deal.  He’s 140 games into his NHL career, however, with just 70 points to his name.  Suffice it to say, going that approach comes with some risk, albeit with a higher reward if he’s able to establish himself as a full-time top-six middleman.

With Ottawa’s cap situation and the fact they have other needs to fill, the safer route might be the one they ultimately take which would be a bridge deal.  Pinto is still four years away from UFA eligibility so they could work out a two-year agreement in the $3MM-plus range, giving him an opportunity to demonstrate that he can maintain that level of production over a full season and giving Staios a chance to address some other needs in the coming months.

Look For Goalie Upgrade

On top of looking for help on the back end, Staios should also be looking for an upgrade between the pipes.  This has been somewhat of an annual exercise in recent years as former GM Pierre Dorion tried several different options, none of which have panned out as well as they hoped for.

Last summer, they brought in Korpisalo on a five-year, $20MM contract.  Both the term and price point seemed particularly high for someone who had to take a greater than 50% pay cut the year before.  Having said that, there was a bit of an upside play with the contract if he could have maintained his level of performance from 2022-23.  He didn’t.  Instead, Korpisalo’s numbers were worse than his career averages, resulting in some very inconsistent play from their starter.  With four years left on that deal, it’s hard to see there being much of a trade market for him.

Anton Forsberg, who they thought could be part of their longer-term plans after a breakout year in 2021-22, has also struggled the last couple of years.  He doesn’t have much trade value either but he’s at least on an expiring contract so his spot is the one they can try to upgrade on.

Yes, Mads Sogaard is waiting in the wings (and needs a new deal this summer) but he has another year of waiver exemption left so they can keep him stashed at AHL Belleville getting as much playing time as possible.  He’s undoubtedly part of the longer-term plans but for 2025-26 and beyond.

That’s a small window for Staios to work with as they’ll either be looking for a one-year deal in free agency or trying to trade for one on an expiring contract, using Forsberg’s $2.75MM as an offset.  They’re probably not getting a legitimate starter in this scenario but someone with a track record of even consistently average goaltending would help to shore up a long-standing weakness and would go a long way toward trying to get them back into the playoff picture.

Consider Core Shakeup

On paper, the Senators have a pretty strong core of now-young veterans who were supposed to represent the anchor points of their rebuild and help move them past it.  Despite that, it hasn’t exactly led to much offensive success.  The last time the Sens were in the top half of the NHL in goals scored was back in 2015-16 when none of their current players were in the fold.

At first glance, there’s reason to believe that there is room for internal growth and they’ll be banking on Green helping make that happen.  But should they run it back with the same core group and hope that Green taking over and the team ideally staying healthier – particularly Josh Norris – will be enough of a difference to get them into the postseason?

There are cases to be made both for and against doing that.  This team should be better than it has been based on the talent it has assembled.  It’s certainly plausible that one day, things will come together.  And if it does, they’ll have some key pieces on market-value (or below market-value) deals for multiple years to come.  That’s a good spot to be in.

On the other hand, at some point, running the same core group out there and simply hoping things will work out better this time around has its risks.  It also doesn’t generally have the greatest track record of success.  And this is Dorion’s core group so it stands to reason that Staios might want to put his own stamp on the team.

Fortunately for him, if he does want to shake up the core, the majority of their core pieces are on deals that already are or should be team-friendly at some point.  The exception would be Norris due to injuries but if he can stay healthy, that can still change.  That will give him options as most of the core players would have several suitors, positioning them to receive a significant return.  Would a move like that help or at least be worth trying?  That’s what Staios and his management team will need to decide in the coming weeks.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Checklist: NHL Utah

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The offseason has arrived for three-quarters of the NHL for teams that either missed the playoffs or were eliminated in the first round.  Accordingly, it’s now time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Utah.

The hockey operations staff that formerly comprised the Arizona Coyotes entered the 2023-24 campaign looking to take a measured step forward. They’d last made the playoffs in 2012, excluding the COVID bubble, and had already seen one season of improvement under head coach André Tourigny.

Early on, it looked like they may have had a prayer of ending their playoff drought, keeping pace in the wild-card race with a 19-14-2 record on New Year’s Day. Without a suitable arena plan in place by the All-Star break, though, relocation rumors again surged and, as players and staff have since admitted, fueled a long run of losing play.

They still ended the season with a respectable 36 wins, their most since 2019, and look a step closer to playoff contention. Under new ownership in Utah and a relatively endless supply of cap space and draft picks this summer, general manager Bill Armstrong has the opportunity to accelerate the yet-to-be-named roster’s rebuild in a big way.

Take Care Of Their Own

As a result of their previous situation, Utah has one of the lowest amounts of standard player contracts signed for next season in the league (22). That impact is felt mostly on defense, where not a single NHL-ready player is signed for 2024-25.

The good news is only two of their NHL regulars on the back end, Josh Brown and Travis Dermott, are unrestricted free agents. Everybody else is under team control, including their youthful top pairing of Sean Durzi and J.J. Moser.

The former relished the opportunity of being the Coyotes’ number-one defenseman last season, his first in the desert after they acquired him from the Kings last June. He responded with a career-best 41 points and a -1 rating in 76 games, averaging 22:43 per game and quarterbacking their top power-play unit. His possession impacts at even strength were among the best on the team, and while he may not be a long-term number-one guy on a championship team, he solidified his status as a first-pairing piece for the present. Evolving Hockey projects Durzi to receive a four-year deal worth around $5.9MM per season, an agreement both sides should be happy with.

Moser, who was also solid this season with 26 points in 80 games riding shotgun with Durzi, also needs a new deal. The 23-year-old has completed his entry-level contract. Michael Kesselring and Juuso Välimäki, who each held top-four roles for a decent chunk of the season, are also RFAs.

Utah has much less contractual work to do with their forwards. Among NHL regulars, only Barrett Hayton is an RFA, while enforcer Liam O’Brien is headed for unrestricted free agency but seems a good bet to re-sign. Nonetheless, gearing up for a big offseason spending spree will require a better indication of what their salary cap picture will look like with their RFAs and other returning players taken care of – especially if Armstrong and owners Smith Entertainment Group plan on gracing the $87.7MM upper limit.

Land An Impact Defenseman

The Coyotes’ biggest improvement last season was their offense. Ranking 16th in the league at 3.10 goals per game, it was certainly good enough to get them into the playoffs if their defense saw a marked improvement from last season.

Obviously, that wasn’t the case. Outside of Durzi and Moser, it was a rough go for most Coyotes blue-liners last season. Even Välimäki and Kesselring had some good moments throughout the year, but other regulars like Dermott and Mathew Dumba, prior to his trade to the Lightning, were bleeding quality chances against on a nightly basis.

Reports earlier in the month indicated that a top-four defenseman, along with a second-line center and a top-six winger, was on Armstrong’s shopping list for Utah’s roster this summer. A cursory look suggests it should be his biggest priority.

Kesselring and Välimäki proved last season they could stay afloat, each logging possession metrics slightly better than the team average. But having both of them in a top-four isn’t ideal, especially with a solid but pedestrian first pairing in Durzi and Moser. Adding a right-shot defenseman to complement Välimäki to slot in behind Durzi on the depth chart, allowing Kesselring to be increasingly effective in third-pairing minutes, would have a considerable domino effect. Can Armstrong land a Brett Pesce or Matt Roy on the UFA market? He’ll certainly have the cash.

Complement Cooley

Priority number two behind adding a defenseman among Armstrong’s already-dictated targets is adding a complement for Logan Cooley as a top-six center. The 2022 third-overall pick struggled early on in the season, getting caved defensively and failing to drive play, but settled in throughout the season en route to a solid 20-goal, 44-point rookie campaign. Averaging nearly 16 minutes per game, he’s not quite ready to be a bonafide first-liner between Clayton Keller and Nick Schmaltz, but he’s getting there. They’ll need some help to avoid overextending him too early in his career, though.

Adding a 1B center who can split top-six duties with Cooley would allow Nick Bjugstad and Hayton to center the club’s third and fourth lines, suddenly creating extremely solid depth considering they both rose to the occasion when relied upon for top-six usage this season. They can occupy top-six minutes to ease the burden on Cooley if necessary, but it’s not ideal if Armstrong and Smith believe playoffs should be in the conversation for Utah in 2024-25. The production wasn’t there for Hayton, who had just three goals and 10 points in 33 games despite spending most of his time when healthy next to Keller, but his 54.9 CF% at even strength was the best on the team, and he looks to be a reliable, two-way pivot to anchor their third line in the long term.

Jack McBain is also in the mix at center but, like the others, is much more comfortable in a bottom-six role. There aren’t many bonafide top-six options on the free agent center market this summer, so if Armstrong is looking to leverage some of Utah’s many upcoming second-round picks, it would be wise to do so.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Offseason Checklist: Montreal Canadiens

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The offseason has arrived for three-quarters of the NHL for teams that either missed the playoffs or were eliminated in the first round.  Accordingly, it’s now time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Montreal.

With the Canadiens still in the build-up portion of their rebuild, expectations were still low heading into the season.  They finished in the same spot as the year before – 28th – while making marginal improvements in goals, goals allowed, and points.  With them now missing the postseason three years in a row after making the Cup Final, expectations should start to creep higher now with the team likely to try to emerge from its rebuild soon.  Accordingly, GM Kent Hughes will likely be looking to make some moves both for the future and next season.

Clear Defensive Logjam

The Canadiens have one of the deeper defensive groups in the league when it comes to team depth.  They’re only a year removed from dressing four (and sometimes five) rookies in a game but until the next wave was ready to push for playing time, they didn’t necessarily have to make a move.

That next wave is now pretty close to being ready.  Jayden Struble was expected to be in the minors this season but wound up playing 56 games with the big club.  Lane Hutson and Logan Mailloux both received a taste of NHL action down the stretch and held their own.  David Reinbacher, the fifth-overall pick last spring, will play full-time in North America next season and should see a handful of games at a minimum.

A total of eight blueliners played at least 44 games for Montreal this season.  All are either under contract or controllable through restricted free agency.  Even without the prospects being on the verge of pushing for roster spots, there was already a bit of a logjam.  But if they think one of Hutson or Mailloux is ready for full-time duty or close to it, they might be inclined to look at moving two of their blueliners.

Some expect David Savard, a 2025 unrestricted free agent, to be moved but they could elect to hold him until closer to the trade deadline to keep him working with the young core as long as possible.  At first glance, Jordan Harris could be the odd one out.  The 23-year-old can play on both sides, is signed for one more year at an affordable $1.4MM, and can log upwards of 18 minutes a night.  Speculatively, Justin Barron could also be in play as he’s now waiver-eligible and can’t be returned to the minors as he was for most of the second half of this season.  A pending RFA, the 22-year-old was a former first-rounder and has close to 100 career NHL games under his belt which should give him good value if they decide to move him.

Extension Discussions

Last offseason, the focus was on Cole Caufield’s contract as he was entering RFA eligibility for the first time.  They don’t have anyone quite as impactful needing a new deal this time around which should position Hughes to turn his focus to trying to sign a pair of key youngsters to early extensions.

At the beginning of the season, Juraj Slafkovsky struggled mightily to the point where many felt he should have been assigned to the minors.  Instead, Montreal went the other way and put him on the top line and things clicked for him from there.  The top pick in 2022 went on to put up 35 points in the final 40 games of the season, moving him from a sure-fire bridge candidate to one they’ll likely try to sign long-term.  Given Montreal’s salary structure, it’s reasonable to infer they’d prefer to slot him behind Nick Suzuki whose deal checks in at $7.875MM per season.  However, with what first-overall picks typically get on long-term agreements (generally more than this), will he be amenable to that or will he push for more?  If it’s the latter, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the two sides wait until the 2025 offseason to see if his second half was an outlier or a sign of things to come.

The other notable extension-eligible candidate is Kaiden Guhle.  The 22-year-old blueliner made the jump from junior two years ago and has logged over 20 minutes a night in his first two seasons.  With a bit of a limited offensive game, his earnings ceiling will be limited but he could still push past $6MM per season on a max-term deal.  Having said that, Guhle has battled injuries both years so an extension would be somewhat of a shared risk scenario.  Guhle would be risking leaving some money on the table if he’s able to stay healthy and have a big year next season while Montreal would be risking a significant commitment to a thus-far injury-prone player but if he stays healthy, they could potentially get him at a team-friendly rate.  Seeing if there’s a number where both sides are content should be fairly high on the to-do list.

Add Scoring Help

The last time Montreal finished in the top half of the league in goals scored was back in 2018-19.  They’ve finished 26th the last two seasons and 27th the year before that.  Only two players scored more than 20 goals this season, Suzuki and Caufield.  Even if they feel the top line from the second half of the year (those two with Slafkovsky) is a legitimate top trio, they need a lot of secondary scoring behind them.

The return of Kirby Dach should help after he missed almost the entire season with a knee injury while they will bank on Alex Newhook taking another step forward in his development.  Accordingly, it’s reasonable for them to hope that some improvement will come internally.  That said, internal improvement alone won’t be enough to propel them back into a playoff race let alone the actual playoffs.

Under this management group, the Canadiens have avoided adding players in free agency, preferring to build via the trade market.  They’ve flipped a first-round pick in back-to-back years to add Dach and Newhook and, armed with an extra first-rounder again for next month’s draft, many expect them to do so again, whether that’s for another player of that ilk or as part of a bigger swing.

Beyond that, this might be the time for them to look at a shorter-term unrestricted free agent as well, one that can augment the scoring depth for a few years and serve as somewhat of a mentor to what is a fairly young group.  Having said that, they will have a decision to make before July 1st if they intend to go that route.

Escape Or Utilize LTIR

Two years ago, Montreal elected to go into offseason LTIR, giving them the flexibility to take on Sean Monahan from Calgary, receiving a 2025 first-round pick for their troubles.  That worked out well for the Canadiens considering they signed him to a cheap one-year deal last spring and then flipped him for another first-rounder earlier this season.

Last summer, they elected not to do that, instead waiting until in-season to put Carey Price on LTIR.  That move gave them more flexibility but they then didn’t do much of anything with that flexibility.

Accordingly, that might not be the best approach to take this time around.  Price still has two years left on his $10.5MM contract although his playing days are over.  Flipping him will be difficult considering there is still $11MM in signing bonuses still left to be paid on it.

So, Hughes needs to determine if he wants to go back into offseason LTIR or not.  If he does, they could be players either in free agency or perhaps taking on a short-term pricey contract as they did with Monahan two years ago.  Even with the cap set to rise by more than $1MM this time around, there will be teams looking to move out some salary.  The benefit would be more future than current as they’d likely be compensated with a draft pick but if they’re not in a spot where they think they can push for a playoff spot – which would be a lofty goal – then they wouldn’t be concerned about that.

If they don’t want to go into offseason LTIR, it might be worth them trying to dip out of it altogether.  They currently have about $78.6MM in commitments, per CapFriendly, with Barron and Arber Xhekaj being the only two RFAs on the roster who could command a seven-figure contract.  That would still leave them room to try to add a piece while also staying under the cap ceiling (meaning Price would be on regular IR), allowing them to bank money for in-season flexibility or to try to avoid incurring a seven-figure bonus overage for the third straight year, a move that would help them cap-wise heading into 2025-26.  They’ll want to have their direction picked out by the time free agency opens up.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Big Hype Prospects: Eiserman, McKenna, Hemming, Beaudoin

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The 2024 World U18 Championships have ended with a bang, with Team Canada scoring four goals in the final 10 minutes of the Gold Medal game against Team USA. The charge was led by the incredible pairing of star prospects Tij Iginla and Gavin McKenna, who combined for four of Canada’s six goals. The duo headlined what was a historic U18 tournament worth breaking down. So we’ll once again borrow the Big Hype Prospects series from MLB Trade Rumors and take the time to break down some of the top performers from one of the best pre-draft tournaments of the season.

Four Big Hype Prospects

Cole Eiserman, RW, USA U18 (NTDP)
56 GP – 57 G – 31 A – 88 TP – 6 PIM – 6 +/-

There were some amazing records broken during this year’s U18s. Cole Hutson (2024) became the highest-scoring defenseman in National Team Development Program history, James Hagens (2025) broke Nikita Kucherov’s tournament scoring record, and Gavin McKenna (2026) became the highest-scoring Canadian in the event’s history. But it’s Cole Eiserman’s shattering of the NTDP’s goal-scoring record that sticks out as the most pertinent. Eiserman has totaled 127 goals in 119 games with the U.S. NTDP, breaking Cole Caufield’s record of 126 goals in 123 games. Eiserman now sits atop a highly decorated list, after scoring at a dazzling 1.07 goals-per-game pace. And yet, he faces undoubted questions ahead of the 2024 Draft – with many doubting Eiserman’s consistency and energy off the puck. Eiserman certainly showed the intensity he can bring at U18s, looking like America’s most effective forechecker in their semi-finals matchup with Team Slovakia. But he struggled to bring the same north-to-south pressure consistently, and was even held without a goal during USA’s bouts with Switzerland and Finland – a rarity for Eiserman. He’s been a star since he was nine-years-old, looking like the standout in a Brick Invite that featured multiple members of Team USA and Team Canada’s lineup. Having the spotlight for that long places a heavy weight on draft-year prospects – made evident by Oliver Wahlstrom’s continued growth. Eiserman will face similar challenges, as he tries to build out the rest of his skillset around a goal-scoring ability that’s historically-great.

Gavin McKenna, LW/RW, Medicine Hat (WHL)
61 GP – 34 G – 63 A – 97 TP – 21 PIM – -4 +/-

The U18s skyrocketed the draft stock of many of 2024’s top prospects. But it was the 2025 and 2026 classes that had the strongest showings – with Hagens and McKenna fighting to one-up each other every single game. And while Hagens took home the tournament’s MVP award, it was McKenna’s hat-trick that sealed Canada’s Gold Medal win. The performance was a perfect close to what’s been an amazing season for McKenna, who came just three points shy of cousin Connor Bedard’s WHL U17 scoring record. McKenna is an incredible prospect who simply sees the game quicker than anyone else. He’s able to work the puck through the smallest of gaps and make hockey moves in the tightest of spaces, helping him cut around defenders and score from anywhere. McKenna never stops moving, either – making sure he makes a mark every single shift and standing up to the call for added minutes when his team needs him. He is simply a star – and one that isn’t draft-eligible for another two seasons. There’s no telling just how good he’ll be if this is where he’s at at 16. Medicine Hat may have had an early exit this season, but they’re undoubtedly eager for next year – and the prospects of reuniting McKenna with top 2024 prospects Cayden Lindstrom and Andrew Basha.

Emil Hemming, LW, TPS (Liiga)
40 GP – 7 G – 4 A – 11 TP – 0 PIM – 3 +/-

Looking away from the glitz-and-glamor of this year’s tournament, it was maybe Emil Hemming who showed the most pro-ready traits. He was incredibly smooth all tourney, making plays cleanly and confidently in the offensive zone and using slick skating to create space off of defenders. And he had plenty of chances to show off just how hard his shot was – with opponents giving him plenty of space at the tops of the circles. The tournament was an encouraging showing from Hemming, who’s looked prone to playing slow or unengaged in the Liiga. But that’s a pro league – and among his peers, Hemming made crisp plays and matched pace beautifully. He’s showed pro-ready traits all season, flexing strong positional awareness and working with teammates well, but Hemming’s newfound tempo could be a substantial boost to his hefty style. Hemming has been considered a first-round prospect for much of the season, but his responsible and reliable U18s could now push him into the high-20s for teams looking for impact players sooner rather than later.

Cole Beaudoin, C, Barrie (OHL)
67 GP – 28 G – 34 A – 62 TP – 27 PIM – 2 +/-

If any player were to rival Hemming’s title as the U18’s most impactful power-forward, it’d be Cole Beaudoin – who looked absolutely locked-in in every one of Canada’s games. Beaudoin is another hefty forward, who made up for a lack of speed with an unmovable strength and frame. He’s powerful in every aspect of his style, driving down the boards hard and doing well at taking opponents out of play with big hits. Beaudoin was a dynamic penalty killer too, squaring up to opponents well and using a quick, long reach to break up plays. Combined with his heavy frame and sharp processing, Beaudoin was simply hard to beat at the U18s. He was a key matchup against Team USA’s Hagens and Eiserman, and shut both players down well. While his offense could certainly be more inspiring, Beaudoin’s ability to shut down play and win back possession in his own zone could be strong enough to get some NHL teams looking at him early.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Offseason Checklist: Columbus Blue Jackets

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The offseason has arrived for half of the league’s teams that aren’t taking part in the playoffs plus several others who have already been eliminated.  Accordingly, it’s now time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Columbus.

After a tough 2022-23 season, there was supposed to be some reason for optimism for the Blue Jackets this year.  GM Jarmo Kekalainen picked up a pair of impactful defensemen while some younger players were expected to take the next step.  Mike Babcock was brought in as head coach to help shepherd the team back towards competitiveness at a minimum.

By now, you know what happened next.  Babcock was gone before ever coaching a game, resulting in Pascal Vincent, a first-time bench boss, taking over behind the bench.  The team then battled a litany of injuries throughout the year while there was some inconsistency in the performances from their young core, resulting in just a seven-point improvement while once again finishing last in the Metropolitan Division.  Eventually, Kekalainen was ousted with a lengthy search for his replacement underway.  That headlines a busy checklist for Columbus this summer.

Hire A GM, Make Coaching Decision: Let’s get the obvious one out of the way first.  Before the team can do any sort of heavy lifting, they need to hire Kekalainen’s replacement.  While team president John Davidson is handling the day-to-day operations for the time being, they can’t run with an interim option for too much longer.

The belief is that they’ve cast a very wide net as they look for a replacement with experience being a key characteristic they’re looking for.  However, that doesn’t have to come in the form of NHL GM experience but rather someone who has a lot of time working in an NHL front office.

Once they get that hire in place, the first decision that will need to be made is on the coaching front.  Vincent has one year left on his contract; is he going to be their coach of the future and get an extension?  Will the new GM want to make their own hire?  Or will they opt to stick with the status quo and keep Vincent in place in his walk year, allowing for extra time for evaluation with perhaps a reshaped roster?  Knowing this is the time of year when most coaching searches are completed, it’s important to get this file closed quickly which means a general manager needs to be hired sooner than later.

Upgrade In Goal: One of the ideas behind Kekalainen’s additions of Ivan Provorov and Damon Severson last summer was that an upgraded back end would go a long way toward helping stabilize things between the pipes.  Elvis Merzlikins was coming off a disastrous year while Daniil Tarasov – now the full-time backup after Joonas Korpisalo was moved at the trade deadline – didn’t have much NHL experience so there was certainly some logic in the idea that a better defense corps would benefit the goaltenders.

Despite the good intentions, the results weren’t much better.  Yes, Merzlikins improved his save percentage by 31 points this year compared to last.  However, he still checked in at .897, well below average for one of the higher-paid starters in the league.  Meanwhile, Tarasov improved his rate by 16 points to .908 but he still has just 45 career NHL appearances under his belt.  He could be part of the future plans for them but he’s not ready for the number one role.

However, Merzlikins’ performance over the past couple of years has shown that he’s not a viable option for the number one role either, at least not with Columbus.  Accordingly, it would be quite difficult to run it back with this tandem and expect any sort of material improvement in the standings.

The good news for Columbus is that it looks like this could be a summer where there is more activity than normal on the goalie transaction front with some notable names in play.  While it’s unreasonable to think they’ll be in the mix for the likes of Jacob Markstrom and possibly Juuse Saros, there should be a domino effect once the swaps begin, potentially giving them an opportunity to try another starter.

They’re not in a situation where they’ll be able to get good value for Merzlikins.  Frankly, they might not be able to get any value for him.  But if they want to try to take a step forward next season, it may very well be in the best interest of both sides to have a new starter in place working with Tarasov when the puck drops in October.

Defensive Decisions: After making some big moves last summer on the back end, whoever takes over as GM will have some decisions to make and could look to shake things up again.

Is Provorov going to be part of their long-term plans?  The change of scenery didn’t kickstart his game from an offensive standpoint although he had a decent year overall.  But he’s entering the final year of his contract with a $6.75MM AAV (the Blue Jackets are only responsible for $4.75MM of that) and will likely be looking for a long-term agreement around that price tag.  If he’s not willing to sign or the team isn’t ready to make that type of commitment, it might make sense to see what is available for him this summer over an in-season swap closer to the trade deadline.

Another decision will have to be made on the RFA front with Jake Bean.  A couple of years ago, it looked like he was going to be a key part of their future plans after putting up 25 points in 2021-22 while logging over 20 minutes a night.  However, since then, he has struggled to stay healthy and when he has played, he has had a much more limited role, predominantly on the third pairing.  The 25-year-old has one year of club control remaining but to use it, the Blue Jackets would have to tender him a $2.9MM qualifying offer and give him arbitration rights.  Would that money be better utilized elsewhere?  They’ll have to decide by the end of June.

Whoever takes over as GM will also likely pick up the efforts to move Adam Boqvist.  Brought over as part of the Seth Jones trade, the 23-year-old has shown flashes of being an above-average producer from the blueline but struggles with injuries and defensive zone issues have limited him thus far.  He played in just 35 games this season which isn’t ideal considering he’s carrying a $2MM cap charge.  With David Jiricek expected to make a full-time jump to the NHL next season and Nick Blankenburg no longer waiver-exempt, something has to give roster-wise.  Moving Boqvist would help ease the roster crunch.

On top of those, trying to upgrade the back end should also be on the to-do list if the new GM comes in and elects to keep pushing forward with this core.  It was a busy offseason last year for defensive activity and this one could be as well.

Bridge Or Long-Term Deals: The Blue Jackets have several young forwards in line for their second contracts this summer – centers Cole Sillinger and Kent Johnson along with winger Kirill Marchenko.  While a long-term contract for any of them would likely be an overpayment at the beginning, it could also be a bargain later on if they pan out as expected.  With a young group, balancing things out with some long-term agreements among the short-term bridge ones makes sense from a salary cap perspective.

Sillinger had a nice bounce-back season after a rough sophomore campaign.  The 20-year-old set new career bests in assists (19) and points (32) while making strides as a two-way player.  If they think he’s poised to take a big step forward offensively next season, they could take a look at trying to work out a longer-term deal although a bridge agreement feels like the more probable outcome.

The same can be said for Johnson whose second full professional season had some struggles.  After putting up 40 points in his rookie year, he notched just six goals and ten assists in 42 games this year with a shoulder injury ending his campaign early.  Had he been able to take a step forward, he’d have been an easy candidate for a long-term pact but now, both sides need more time to evaluate things.

As for Marchenko, he very quietly led the Blue Jackets in goals this season with 23, his second straight 20-goal campaign after notching 21 in his rookie year.  Consistent scoring threats are hard to come by, particularly on a Columbus team that has underwhelmed offensively; they’ve only been better than 25th in goals once over the last five seasons.  A longer-term agreement shouldn’t break the bank with some comparables around the league checking in around the $5MM-plus range.  If that’s something Marchenko is amenable to, that’s a deal that could work out well for both sides.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Checklist: Anaheim Ducks

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The offseason has arrived for half of the league’s teams that aren’t taking part in the playoffs plus several others who have already been eliminated.  Accordingly, it’s now time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Anaheim.

As expected, this season was a rough one for the Ducks who didn’t exactly improve their fortunes much from 2022-23.  While they finished seventh in the Pacific instead of last, they only had one more point than the year before with a mixed bag of performances from their young core.  GM Pat Verbeek made one big move to shake up that core in-season when he moved Jamie Drysdale to Philadelphia and it’s quite possible that another significant swap could be on the way.  That’s one of the items on their checklist for the coming months.

Add Impact Pieces: Verbeek indicated in his end-of-season press conference that he’s looking to add some impact players this summer, including a top-six forward and a top-four blueliner so let’s start here.  They did this last offseason, signing Alex Killorn to a four-year, $25MM contract and Radko Gudas to a three-year, $12MM deal.  Both players got a bit more money than expected but they felt the overpayment was worth it to get them into the fold.

While they could look to add those types of players again over the summer (bringing in veteran leaders to fill a specific role and overpaying a bit in terms of AAV), it wouldn’t be surprising to see them try to aim a little higher this time around.  Instead of culture builders, they could look to add more productive pieces to take some pressure off the young core and then when that core is a bit more ready in a couple of years, they’ll be a deeper team which should line up with when they want to try to get back into contention.

Additionally, Verbeek will likely want to add to Anaheim’s bottom-six group as well.  They tried several younger players with varying levels of success this past season but if they intend to try to be more competitive, bringing in a veteran that can play some heavy checking minutes would help accomplish that.  The days of just being sellers should be over now and they will have more cap room than most other teams.

Examine Zegras Options: Of course, while they’re going to start being buyers more often, it doesn’t mean Verbeek won’t look to sell in the right situation.  One of those could involve Trevor Zegras, a player who, at a minimum, Anaheim would be wise to explore their options with.

Drafted as a center, Zegras may not be there much longer.  The team explored moving him to the wing at times this season.  With Mason McTavish and Leo Carlsson in the fold and needing top-six minutes, that made sense over dropping Zegras to the third line.  In a season that saw him battle injuries, it would be difficult to fully assess his ability to handle the switch.

However, ready or not, that switch could be permanent if he stays in Anaheim with Cutter Gauthier now under contract; he’ll likely play down the middle as well before too long until he’s ready for full-time top-six duty when one of him, Carlsson, or McTavish will need to shift to the wing full-time as well.

From a value perspective, is it better for the Ducks to see if Zegras can overcome a down year and thrive with a full-time switch to the wing or cash in on him now as a center, a position always in high demand?  The year he had means he wouldn’t be getting moved at his peak value but he’s a 23-year-old with two 60-plus seasons under his belt, signed at a reasonable $5.75MM price for two more years with two more seasons of club control after that.  That’s still a pretty valuable trade chip if Verbeek wants to make another move to shake things up.  Is the time right to play that chip?  They’ll have to figure out that answer within likely the next couple of months.

Look Into Moving Gibson: The question of when will the Ducks move goaltender John Gibson has been around for several years now.  There has been speculation at times that the team would have liked to move him while other times had some suggesting he’d like to leave.  Each time it looked like something could happen, it didn’t.

This might be the summer when that changes.  There are a handful of teams who either will be looking to move their starter while a couple of others might be looking to simply shake things up between the pipes.  If all of those moves wind up coming to fruition, it could be a situation of musical chairs for veteran starting goalies.  Perhaps that will be able to help spark a move.

Gibson will have three years left on his contract heading into next season at a $6.4MM cap hit.  That’s still on the pricey side; he has the sixth-highest AAV among netminders for 2024-25 and one of the ones he’s behind is Carey Price who is going to be on LTIR until his contract expires.  At a time when a lot of teams are shifting more toward lower-cost platoons, that makes him a little harder to move.

But some teams have potential ‘change of scenery’ candidates with a price tag that’s somewhat close to Gibson’s.  At first glance, Pittsburgh, Seattle, and Columbus all have netminders who are being paid like a starter but lost the starting role at some point; all three goalies have an AAV within $1.025MM of Gibson’s and three or more years left on their respective contracts.  Is it possible that one or more of them might be willing to make a change?  (And would Anaheim in that circumstance?)

The idea of getting a high-end return is off the table at this point.  Between the other goaltenders available, Gibson’s struggles (he’s coming off a career-low .888 SV%), and his price tag, the market conditions aren’t there for a big return.  But if the Ducks want to give Gibson a chance to try to win somewhere else and are willing to roll the dice on a new partner for Lukas Dostal, this might be the summer where a move actually happens.

Tender Decisions: It wasn’t that long ago that the Ducks were hoping that forwards Isac Lundestrom and Max Jones were going to be a big part of their future plans.  Now, they need to decide if it’s worth even tendering them qualifying offers next month, an idea that would have seemed crazy just a couple of years ago.

Lundestrom was a first-round pick back in 2018 and profiled as a potential two-way pivot.  After a quality 2021-22 campaign that saw him put up 16 goals and 13 assists, the expectation was that his value would be on the rise.  However, he scored just four times in 61 games in 2022-23 and then tore his Achilles tendon in offseason training, costing him 36 games this past season.  When he returned, Lundestrom notched just five goals and six assists.  One good season followed by two tough ones; is that worth tendering a $1.8MM qualifying offer and giving him arbitration rights?  They have the cap room to give him one more look but, like Max Comtois last year, they could prefer to simply move on.

As for Jones, he was a 2016 first-round selection but hasn’t become the impactful power forward they were hoping for.  Instead, when healthy, he has strictly been a depth player and barely logged 12 minutes a game this season.  Jones has yet to reach the double-digit goal or 20-point marks in his six professional campaigns and is coming off a five-goal, ten-assist showing in 52 games this past season.  He’s owed a $1.5MM qualifying offer with arbitration eligibility that could push that a little higher.  Again, they have the money to afford to give him one more look but could earmark his spot for a different prospect or a free agent signing.

A few years ago, both Lundestrom and Jones were viewed as potential longer-term pieces for the Ducks.  Now, there’s a possibility that neither is with the team two months from now.  Verbeek will need to decide if the time is right to cut bait or to give one or both of them one more opportunity.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Poll: Should The Lightning Re-Sign Steven Stamkos?

at CDT | by 17 Comments

In case you’ve missed the discourse after the Lightning’s first-round elimination last night (or haven’t read our preview of this summer’s top UFA left wings), Steven Stamkos is on an expiring contract. The future Hall-of-Famer has now wrapped up the eight-year, $68MM extension he signed in 2016 and will go to market on July 1 if not signed to an extension.

Over the course of his extension, the now 34-year-old Stamkos has overseen the greatest sustained period of success in franchise history. The club only missed the postseason once – the first season of his deal, 2016-17, in which a torn lateral meniscus in his right knee ended his campaign in November. Back-to-back Stanley Cups in 2020 and 2021, a third straight Finals appearance in 2022, and an additional Eastern Conference Final showing in 2018 have cemented the Lightning as arguably the most successful squad over the past 10 years, notwithstanding the three other ECF/SCF appearances Stamkos made with the team before his extension (2011, 2015, 2016).

Overall, injuries limited him to 513 of 618 possible regular-season games (83.8%) during his last contract, but he’s remained a capable top-of-the-lineup scorer and is money in the bank for over a point per game. He had 81 in 79 this season, including 40 goals – his seventh time hitting the milestone.

Stamkos has transitioned into a less-taxing role on the wing at even strength in his later years with the emergence of Anthony Cirelli and Brayden Point, as well as the extremely well-advised Nick Paul pickup, making his slightly negative possession impacts over the last two seasons easier to swallow. He was never a beacon of defensive excellence, but he did at least routinely post Corsi shares at even strength above the team’s overall share without him on the ice. That hasn’t been the case since 2021-22.

He’s still an extremely effective player, and given the precedent of other Lightning stars like Point and Nikita Kucherov taking slight discounts on their market value, it likely wouldn’t be prohibitively expensive to re-sign him. But Tampa’s lack of bottom-six scoring and poor defensive depth – especially without a fully healthy Mikhail Sergachev – was exposed in their rather decisive series loss to the Panthers.

The club has $10MM in projected cap space next season, with extensions/replacements also needed for Anthony Duclair, their best secondary scorer since his trade deadline pickup from the Sharks, and blue-liner Mathew Dumba. They’re also losing the $6.875MM of long-term injured reserve flexibility they’ve had from retired defenseman Brent Seabrook’s contract over the past couple of seasons.

Point is still 28. Kucherov is 30. Cirelli is 26. Hedman is 33. Sergachev is 25. Vasilevskiy is 29. Even without Stamkos, it’s a playoff-caliber core for at least two to three more seasons with the right moves. Will that make general manager Julien BriseBois seriously consider prioritizing better depth adds over re-signing the best player in franchise history?

Stamkos said before the 2023-24 season started that he was disappointed in the lack of extension conversations with BriseBois. The six-year GM said in January that he still envisioned Stamkos as part of the roster moving forward but would wait until the offseason to evaluate where the roster stood. The results are as follows: Tampa scored just 36.9% of 5-on-5 goals in the series, a worse share than even the Capitals, who were swept at the hands of the Presidents’ Trophy-winning Rangers. Nine players, including most of their bottom six forwards, failed to score a point. Given they got everything they could ask for from their stars – seven points from Hedman, seven assists from Kucherov and five goals from Stamkos, that may very well swing the balance.

So, PHR readers, we now ask you: Are the Lightning better off keeping Stamkos or using offseason cap space to prioritize rebuilding their depth scoring and defense? Have your say in the poll below:

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