Pro Hockey Rumors Originals

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include the year that was for Nashville, what the Flyers could look to do this summer, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in our past two mailbag columns.

SkidRowe: Given this year’s group of UFAs, who would you sign if you only have $11MM to spend and you need a top-six forward and a left shot defenseman?

This is a question that can have a lot of different answers based on team needs.  Is there a need for an impactful top-four left-shot blueliner which could cost half of that amount or more or do they only need a depth piece, freeing up more money for the forward?  Does that team need a center more than a winger?  As a result, I could come up with a lot of viable answers depending on those needs.  But let’s focus on a couple of scenarios.

If my team has a couple of top-four left-shot options already and I’m looking to go a bit cheaper on the blueline and spend more up front, I’m targeting Oliver Kylington.  He had 31 points in 2021-22, his last full NHL season.  He was more limited this year after returning so a cut from his $2.5MM is certainly possible, especially if it’s a short-term deal.  At 27 (as of today) and with his last full season being a good one, I think he’s going to be one of the better low-cost upside plays, giving me lots of room to spend on the forward.  Failing that, if that team wants some extra firepower, I’d kick the tires on Erik Gustafsson, a player who produces some points but causes enough goals the other way to keep his price tag low.

What’s left after signing Kylington should be enough to shop towards the upper tier of the market.  We’re not in Sam Reinhart territory but if Kylington comes in around $2MM, that should be enough for Jake Guentzel or Steven Stamkos should he not come to terms with Tampa Bay.  The back end of Guentzel’s deal might be iffy – long-term agreements like that often are – but it’d be hard to pass up a shot at an impact scorer.

Now, if the team needs a top-four guy, things change.  It’s not a great market for impactful left-shot blueliners.  There’s Brady Skjei and well, that’s about it.  Shayne Gostisbehere scores enough to be a top-four guy but if you’re looking for a 20-minute-plus minutes-eater, he’s not that player.  Among lefties, only Skjei is.  That will push his price tag past the $6MM mark, potentially closer to $7MM if there winds up being a big market for his services.

That means I don’t have much left up front so I need to get creative and shoot for some upside.  Chandler Stephenson could be nice but it’s iffy that there’s enough left for him.  What does the medical testing about Patrick Kane say?  If the team doctors say he’s likely to hold up, would a multi-year deal for what’s left represent enough of a commitment?  Would a one-year deal for what’s left with some incentives (which can be applied if needed on the 2025-26 books) do it?  Sean Monahan might also fit in this price range as some teams will be scared off with his injury history.  If I need to pay up to get Skjei, I might need to get creative to try to get an impact top-six forward as well.

GBear: What was the point of the Preds 2023/24 season? They’ll once again pick outside the top 20 in the draft and got booted in the first round of the playoffs again, being led mostly by veteran-age players. Aren’t they just doing what they always have in the past despite saying they didn’t want to be in the mushy middle any longer?

It’s definitely a fair question to ask.  I’ll be honest, I didn’t see Nashville as a playoff team heading into the season.  I thought this was going to be a culture-setting season with a new front office, a new coach, and new leaders.  They’d set the tone and foundation to move forward from and if they made the playoffs, that was just an added bonus.  I wouldn’t be shocked if management sees it this way as well.

But you’re absolutely right in saying that they basically wound up where they’d been before when all is said and done.  They’re not really closer to necessarily contending, nor are they going to be able to bring in a top prospect based on where they’re drafting.  Framed that way, yeah, it was a bit of a ‘tires spinning in the mud’ type of year.

If you’re looking for a positive takeaway from this season, it might be this – the floor of the roster is better than most anticipated.  Nashville has ample cap space this summer to go out and try to add a couple of impact players.  If they hand the starting job to Yaroslav Askarov and move Juuse Saros (more on that idea shortly), they might even have enough for a third impact piece.  Add that to the floor this group showed and that could be enough to create a group that could have some damage although being in a division with Dallas, Colorado, and Winnipeg certainly doesn’t help things.

tigers22 2: What package of picks and players would the Red Wings need to give up to get Saros?

There are some teams where acquiring and extending Saros makes a lot of sense.  I’m not sure Detroit is one of them.  Sebastian Cossa is viewed as their goalie of the future and there’s little reason to assume they’re starting to second-guess that.  He’s a couple of years away but that’s perfectly fine for a 21-year-old.  But if he’s their guy moving forward, extending Saros on a long-term deal at a cap hit over $8MM is going to block Cossa.  And as their young core group gets more expensive (Lucas Raymond and Moritz Seider are up for pricey deals this summer), if they can avoid another pricey long-term pact, it’ll give them more flexibility moving forward.

However, adding Saros as a rental player for next season does make some sense for them.  Detroit is at the point where they need to start getting their core group some playoff experience.  We think back to the long playoff streak they had but they haven’t made it once since then; they’ve missed eight years in a row.  Something has to give sooner than later and GM Steve Yzerman knows it.  With goaltending being a big issue, perhaps getting Saros in to shore that up would be enough to get them back into the postseason.  From there, then they can get a better sense of what they’re going to need moving forward.  Even as a short-term addition, I think that’s worthwhile.

As for the cost, the Preds were believed to have a very high asking price to move him at the trade deadline.  With the other goalies that could be in play, I think they’re going to have to lower that.  And if Detroit doesn’t want to sign Saros to an extension as part of the deal, that should lower the price tag as well.

Let’s get the easy part out of the way and say that Ville Husso ($4.5MM for next season) needs to go the other way to match money.  I could see Nashville being more interested in players than picks, however.  I could see Michael Rasmussen being someone they ask for, a middle-six forward with some control.  I also think they’d ask for a young blueliner although if they were to get Rasmussen, they wouldn’t be able to ask for a top youngster.  But William Wallinder, an early second-round pick back in 2020, might be someone they want.  He’s still a year or two away but that’s better than a junior-aged prospect or draft pick that’d even be farther away.

If Linus Ullmark, Jacob Markstrom, and even John Gibson are all on the block this summer, it’s going to make it hard for the Preds to get a first-round pick and another key piece or two.  A package like this, one that gives them some pieces that would help now (especially if Husso can get back to the level he was with St. Louis) and down the road, might be enough to get Saros as a pure rental.  But if several teams want to acquire and extend him, the asking price might get out of Detroit’s range.

Emoney123: With Fedotov and Ersson set in goal, what happens to Hart [RFA]? Who should the Flyers add with Michkov to mentor/develop into a scorer and playoff team?

With Carter Hart being a restricted free agent, the Flyers would have to issue him a $4.479MM qualifying offer to retain his rights.  He’s a year away from UFA eligibility which is particularly noteworthy considering it doesn’t sound like the court case will be held anytime soon.  Even if the offer was issued to retain his rights, chances are he’d be an unrestricted free agent by the time he potentially becomes eligible to play again depending on how the case plays out.  With that in mind, there’s no real benefit to tendering him so chances are he’ll go unqualified next month.

I touched on this a bit in Friday’s mailbag but are the Flyers at the point where they can say the rebuild is over and it’s time to add pieces to get into the playoffs?  This is a team that went into last year with a roster that looked nowhere near playoff-caliber and then, while in a playoff spot, sold.  After collapsing down the stretch, is that going to be the trigger point to say it’s time to go for it?  I don’t think so; they’re not there yet even with how the season went.  So I’m not sure they’re going to be too active in terms of trying to add pieces to become a playoff team.

If they can get Matvei Michkov over early (and it looks like this could happen), the idea of a mentor makes some sense in theory but I have to admit, finding the right fit is harder than I thought.  I don’t think the Flyers are going to be shopping at the top end of the free agent pool which takes some of the more prominent names off the table.

Vladimir Tarasenko stands out as a fit among the secondary pieces, however.  As an offensive player, he had to become a better defensive player in recent years which should help under a coach like John Tortorella.  Meanwhile, the Senators liked his off-ice value in a younger room before moving him at the trade deadline so he could have that same type of benefit for his fellow countryman.  After free agency didn’t go well last time around, a multi-year commitment at a small raise from the $5MM he made this year might get it done which is a price tag they can afford by going into LTIR.  I’d go with him as a veteran to try to add to work with Michkov.

Unclemike1526: Any chance the Hawks can move from 2 to 1? Thanks.

San Jose has already made it clear that they intend to take Macklin Celebrini, someone who they quite likely view as a foundational piece.  More importantly, he’s a foundational center, allowing them to have a strong future one-two punch with him and Will Smith down the middle.  Given how hard it is to find a middleman with that type of value, that makes it a lot harder for the Sharks to move that pick.  They’d want a foundational center in return.  The Blackhawks have one but it’s safe to say they’re not moving him.

Chicago can make a compelling offer to San Jose, certainly more compelling than probably any other team can.  If they offered up the second pick and, say, Frank Nazar, that’s a pretty solid offer.  But I don’t see Sharks GM Mike Grier biting at it and it won’t be a matter of adding extra lesser pieces to make the difference.  When you have a chance to get a franchise fixture down the middle, it’s almost impossible to pass up.

PyramidHeadcrab: It’s generally suggested that the KHL is the second-best professional hockey league in the world, but how competitive would a complete KHL team be if they were to compete in the NHL?

Additionally: How do the major European leagues (KHL, SHL, Liiga, German Elite League, etc.) compare to the North American pro game? Are they more on par with the AHL? ECHL?

And if we really wanna get spicy… What level would pro leagues in countries like Australia, Japan, and United Kingdom be comparable to?

While the reputation of the KHL has been that it’s the second-best league, I don’t think that’s the case anymore as there has been a drop-off in talent in recent years.  To answer your first question, I don’t think the typical KHL team would have much success at all in the NHL.  Even if you look at the roster and stats of the reigning champions Metallurg Magnitogorsk, I don’t see that franchise giving many teams a run for their money most nights.  They’d win some games, sure, but they’d probably be a strong candidate for the top spot in the draft lottery.

I’d have the SHL as the second-best league out there now by a narrow margin.  But again, those teams wouldn’t put up much of a fight against a typical NHL squad.  Now, against an average AHL squad, now we’re talking.  Teams from that league, or the KHL, or even Liiga I think would hold their own.  Maybe some Swiss teams as well as that league has picked up in terms of competitiveness lately.  Meanwhile, for the DEL and ICEHL (Germany and Austria), they’re not quite at that level so I suppose they’d be closer to the ECHL and even that might be a little generous.

As a random aside, back in 2013, AHL Rochester was invited to participate in the Spengler Cup, an international tournament featuring some club teams from various leagues.  The Amerks didn’t fare well (going 0-3) in that event and an AHL squad hasn’t been invited back since.  Having said that, they certainly weren’t at their best due to injuries and recalls but that’s about the only semi-recent basis for comparison that I can think of.

As for the lower-level leagues, I’m not even sure I could come up with a guess.  I can’t sit here and say I’ve seen enough (or anything) from some of those levels to even attempt to come up with a reasonable comparison.  Your guess would be as good as mine.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Topics in this edition of the mailbag include what’s next for the Blackhawks, Mitch Marner trade suggestions, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag.  The final one from our recent call-out for questions will run this weekend.

Unclemike1526: The Hawks have two firsts and three seconds. Who are the best goalie prospects in this year’s field? Commesso played well in the playoffs against a good team. I have no faith in Stauber or Soderblom. Gajan is far away. Who can they draft to solidify the position? 2nd round is where goalies seem to end up going and their own 2nd-round-pick should be a high one. As for Davidson, he says he wants to start adding talent to win. Where do you think he adds? Thanks.

I’ll start with the standard caveat that I’m not much of a scout and when it comes to goalies, I’m even worse so take this with the requisite grain of salt.  I don’t think it’s a particularly strong field, to be honest.  Last year, we saw talk of a goalie possibly going in the first round, that certainly doesn’t appear to be the case this time around.  Carter George, Mikhail Yegorov, and Eemil Vini are the more prominent netminders of this class.  When a question like this came out last year, I also added a darkhorse candidate so I’ll pick Ryerson Leenders for that spot.

You noted that the Blackhawks have a couple of quality goalie prospects already in Drew Commesso and Adam Gajan.  Both have NHL potential and were drafted in the top 50 in their respective drafts, going 46th and 35th respectively.  We also know that there’s a long development curve for netminders.  So is it really in Chicago’s best interest to go after a goalie with their top second-rounder (34th overall) when that goalie might not be ready until 2029 or 2030?  (Not to mention that picking one of those goalies would be a reach.)  Wouldn’t it be better to go with a skater who will probably be a top-20 to top-25 option on their board?  I’m not against them picking a goalie but I wouldn’t consider it until the third round at the earliest with the two promising ones they already have.

As for where GM Kyle Davidson is looking to add, I don’t think there’s really a positional target, so to speak.  Instead, I think it’s going to targeting specific veterans who will be fits in the room and raise the floor of this group.  If it’s a top-four defenseman, great.  If it’s three bottom-six guys that take some of the defensive pressure off the younger forwards, that would work too.  Having said that, if Davidson got his best-case addition, I think it’d be a top-six winger that’s signed for a couple of years to give Connor Bedard an upgraded running mate.  Basically, another Taylor Hall type of pickup, just one that hopefully won’t miss most of next season due to injury.

based: It looks like the Leafs and Marner both possibly may want to move on. How about to Philly? A team trading for him I assume would need a contract extension in place.

I’m not so sure there’s a mutual desire to move on between Toronto and Mitch Marner.  While management was non-committal about bringing the core back, Marner said that a goal of his was a contract extension from the Maple Leafs this summer.  I think if he got his way, he’d stick around.

But let’s talk about the fit in Philadelphia.  A lot would depend on where the Flyers feel they are in their rebuilding process.  I’m not convinced the season they just had will lead to them accelerating their timeline (and that’s probably a good thing long-term).  So is making a move for Marner the right thing to do?  I don’t think it’d be the worst idea if the price was right but this seems a bit early in the process for them to make that type of move.

Another challenge here is, as you noted, the need for a contract extension.  Trading for Marner as a straight-up rental makes no sense for them so a new deal would need to be in place.  I expect his will be a record-setting contract for a winger and I think the sweet spot is going to be around eight years and $100MM if you’re going to get him to sign now.  (That matches the cap percentage that Artemi Panarin got from the Rangers on the open market by design.)  Does Marner make sense on that contract in that market at this time?  That’d be a tough sell.

There’s also the matter of finding a viable trade return.  Even if we concede your premise that the Maple Leafs want to move on from Marner, they’re not just giving him away.  This is a legitimate top-line winger so the asking price would be high.  I expect Travis Konecny would be in there as part of a package which begs the question that if GM Daniel Briere wants to pony up for a winger, why not just lock up Konecny long-term at a lesser rate and keep the other trade assets in the fold?  If I’m choosing between that or acquiring Marner, I’m going with the former.

Jaysen: Your thoughts on a Marner for Saros trade, straight up? Potentially as a sign-and-trade for both?

Or if the above proposal is a no-go, maybe Marner to Chicago or to Utah? And yes, let’s pretend that Marner waives…

Finally, Toronto must make changes to the roster. I’m interested in what would be your most mind-blowing, no way, they did what scenario.

Thank you.

Starting with your trade proposal, I like it for Nashville, assuming it’s a double sign-and-trade.  Yaroslav Askarov is their goalie of the future and if they can get a legitimate top-line winger for a starting goalie, that’s a whole lot better of a return than most starters fetch.

I’m less enthusiastic from Toronto’s point of view, however.  Juuse Saros will be entering his age-30 season when his next deal starts and has had the heaviest workload in terms of games played for the last three years.  That’s a bit concerning when you’re going to hand him a deal comparable to Connor Hellebuyck’s $8.5MM per season.  Yes, he’d certainly represent an upgrade but that’s a lot of offense to sacrifice to get it and a big amount to give up to keep him around.  My Plan A would be to aim a tier lower for a goalie upgrade where it wouldn’t take Marner going the other way even if you wind up moving Marner in a separate move later on.

As for Chicago and Utah being possible landing spots, assuming he waives his trade protection, they’re interesting ideas.  I have the same concern for the Blackhawks as I do for Philadelphia in that it might be early but if they think he’s the running mate for Connor Bedard, then I’d say it’s justifiable even if it is early.  Finding a win-now package going Toronto’s way would be tough, however.  Utah, meanwhile, should be exiting its rebuild and likely will be looking for a talent upgrade.  They have several quality young players they could couple with a win-now player (Nick Schmaltz stands out as an option) that could make for a compelling offer.

When I first saw the last part of this question, my initial thought was if Utah won the lottery, they dealt the first-overall pick for Auston Matthews, sending Matthews to the former Arizona team just after they left his hometown state.  But that’s not happening and San Jose certainly isn’t making that move with where they are.

But let’s stick with the premise.  If I’m picking the ‘no way’ type of move, you have to go big so I’d say it’s moving Matthews while making the decision to pivot to using William Nylander full-time down the middle.  That would lessen the need to get a win-now center coming the other way as they’d have him and John Tavares as their one-two options for next season.  As part of the return, the Leafs would get a young center with top-six potential that ideally would slide into that role the following year (or soon after if Tavares is re-signed at a lower rate).  But the key part of the package would be a legitimate number one defenseman.

If I were to ask who is the least likely of their core forwards to be moved, I think it’d be Matthews.  But in this pie-in-the-sky scenario, Tavares, Marner, and Nylander all refuse to waive their trade protection, resulting in them pivoting to Matthews and using him to fill a key need now, add a piece for the future, and bank on Nylander adapting to and thriving in the number one role.  That’d be a shocker to me.

Breakaway: I heard that Patrik Laine is selling his place in Columbus. He could be buying a new place but is most likely looking for a trade. Who do you think would be interested, what would the trade package look like and would Columbus need to retain some salary?

Notwithstanding the report about selling his house, it makes sense for both sides to have at least some interest in a change of scenery, assuming he’s cleared to return from the NHL/NHLPA Player Assistance Program.  Columbus hasn’t got much bang for their buck on his contract and as a result, Laine appears to be heading toward a sizable pay cut if he repeats the performance of the last two years.  In situations like this, a move makes a lot of sense for both sides…in theory, at least.

Here’s the problem for Columbus.  Laine’s trade value is probably at an all-time low right now.  Yes, there’s a longer-term track record of some success but he has 28 goals in the past two years combined, spanning just 73 games due to injuries and his entrance to the Assistance Program.  He also has a cap hit of $8.7MM and is owed $9.1MM in actual money for each of the two remaining years on his contract.  He also controls his destiny to a point with a ten-team no-trade list.

There are three options for them to consider, none of which are particularly ideal.  They can give him away for next to nothing simply to clear up the cap space and save on salary.  They can retain half the contract and receive a potentially halfway-decent return, maybe a reasonable draft pick (I’m thinking a second-rounder as I type this) and a middle-six forward.  Or, they can try to find another pricey short-term contract that isn’t going well for a team and try to make a swap with the rest of the package being determined by the difference in caliber of the player.  This last one is more theoretical as I don’t see a great fit at first glance.

If the Blue Jackets decide to just cut bait, Chicago makes a lot of sense; it would be a move just like the Hall trade from last summer.  Here’s a top-six player with a bit of upside on paper and a legitimate shooter to work with Bedard.  If things go well, he’s the type of player I could see them extending.  But again, like Hall, the return would be negligible; they’d have to have a plan in place to utilize the cost savings.

If they want to retain money and make more of a hockey trade, Seattle stands out at first glance.  GM Ron Francis might prefer the shorter-term option over a free agent acquisition and if Laine is healthy, he’d be an intriguing fit in a Kraken lineup that needs more firepower.  To make the money work, someone like Brian Dumoulin could go the other way with the draft pick or equivalent prospect.  I also like Utah’s fit here.  They have money to spend and at 26, Laine is a young enough veteran to fit in with their group.  The matching money part isn’t as easy but probably isn’t needed; a deal based on draft and prospect capital should work for them and we know they have plenty of both.

Whoever Columbus hires as GM will have options when it comes to trading Laine if they decide to go that route.  But whichever way they go, the return will pale in comparison to what they gave up to get him in the first place.

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