Trade Candidate: Rick Nash
With the trade deadline approaching, we will be profiling several players in the weeks ahead that have a good chance to be dealt by February 26th.
News broke this morning that the New York Rangers had finally asked Rick Nash for his 18-team no-trade list, essentially confirmed what has been suspected for some time. The team plans on trading Nash before the deadline, trying to recoup as much value as possible out of the last few months of his current contract.
Contract
Nash is in the final season of an eight-year, $62.4MM contract—$7.8MM cap hit, $8.2MM salary. He will be a UFA in July, and holds an 18-team no-trade list.
2017-18
For years, Nash was one of the elite goal scoring talents in the NHL. Armed with excellent speed, a large frame and good hands, the power forward topped 40 goals in three different seasons, and 30 in five others. Since his 42-goal 2014-15 season things have started to trend downwards, but there is still effective hockey left in the 33-year old.
This year, Nash has scored 15 goals through 52 games and has seen his ice time increased back to more than 17 minutes a night. His value as a defensively responsible forward is still quite high, and he still spends nearly two minutes penalty killing every night.
Season Stats
52 GP, 15 goals, 10 assists, 25 points, -5 rating, 20 PIM, 162 shots, 17:04 ATOI, 48.7 CF%
Potential Suitors
Even with Nash’s large cap hit, the market could include several teams around the league. If the Rangers are willing to retain salary (which they are), several teams in the Western Conference could see him as one of the top additions, especially because of his two-way ability.
Dan Rosen of NHL.com lists the Dallas Stars, Nashville Predators, San Jose Sharks and St. Louis Blues as possible destinations, with others noting his familiarity with people like Ken Hitchcock and Joe Thornton. All four teams are battling for position in the West, and could end up driving the price higher and higher for top rentals.
Another interesting spot would be a return to Columbus, though it would take a trade between division rivals to pull it off. The Blue Jackets are looking for some more depth at forward—though specifically center if they had the choice—and would likely welcome the old face of their franchise back for one last run. The two sides did not leave on good terms when Nash was dealt in 2012, but that was some time ago and included a different front office regime.
Likelihood Of A Trade
Nash confirmed he had handed in his list today, and seemed upset at the thought he wouldn’t be a Ranger at the end of the season. Speaking to media including Sean Shapiro of The Athletic, he explained how hard it will be to tell his son that he isn’t with the team anymore.
It’s hard to imagine that the team won’t trade him now, but there is definitely the possibility that he returns to New York in the offseason. Knowing that, it would be foolish of the Rangers to not cash in on whatever return they can get, unless they truly believe they can compete this season in the playoffs. Even still, the return for Nash—which some are speculating could be as high as a first-round pick—is more valuable to the franchise than his contributions this season.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Rick Nash Submits No-Trade List To New York Rangers
It has been expected for some time that Rick Nash would be dealt at the trade deadline, the only question was where. Now, according to Bob McKenzie of TSN, the New York Rangers have some idea of where they can send their pending unrestricted free agent, as they’ve asked him to submit his 18-team no-trade list. New York can now trade him to the twelve teams not included on the list, or ask him to waive the clause in order to deal with any of the others.
Nash, 33, is an interesting case to follow as the deadline approaches. Though he’s not the same 40-goal scorer he was a few years ago, he does still have 15 goals and 25 points on the season and can skate well enough to contribute in several different roles. He could be a useful addition to several teams, but both the no-trade list and his prohibitive $7.8MM cap hit are obstacles for the Rangers to navigate in the coming weeks.
Despite being just two points back of a playoff spot, the Rangers woke up today in last place in the Metropolitan Division. Their struggles this season have given both front office and fans of the team an appetite for a rebuild, as evidenced by the overwhelming results in our latest poll and constant trade rumors surrounding Nash and captain Ryan McDonagh.
If the Rangers do end up selling, Nash looks like he’ll be one of the first assets out the door. Interestingly though, Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet this weekend floated the idea that both Nash and Michael Grabner could be traded as rentals only to return to New York in the summer as free agents.
Trade Notes: Rangers, Avalanche, Predators
Despite the trade deadline being more than a month away, rumors are flying around the NHL. TSN’s Darren Dreger, Pierre LeBrun, and Bob McKenzie appeared on Insider Trading this evening to discuss the rumblings they’re hearing from around the league…
- Rangers wingers Rick Nash and Michael Grabner are expected to be highly sought after prior to the deadline, and Dreger says the Rangers are “leaning towards being open for business.” Of course, the reporter cautions that it would take a lot for a team to acquire Nash, who has yet to be asked for his 12-team trade list. The 33-year-old has 13 goals and 10 assists this season, while the 30-year-old Grabner has compiled 20 goals and four assists.
- There’s also a lot of trade speculation surrounding Rangers defenseman Ryan McDonagh, but it’s believed the veteran won’t be moved until the offseason. The 28-year-old has spent his entire NHL career in New York, and he’s on pace to set a career high in assists this season.
- Many fans thought Colorado would end up being a seller prior to the deadline, but the Avalanche are currently riding a 10-game win streak. The team could ultimately be buyers prior to the deadline, but general manager Joe Sakic is debating whether he wants to disrupt team chemistry by adding another player to the roster.
- The Canadiens predictably won’t be adding add big names prior to the deadline, and the team is still finalizing their trade deadline strategy. However, it’s believed the team could be active in trade talks as they look to improve their roster for next season.
- The Predators are looking to add a top-six winger to their roster, but they’re willing to wait before jumping on a trade. LeBrun mentions Max Pacioretty, Mike Hoffman, and Evander Kane as potential targets.
- The Red Wings are telling teams that defenseman Xavier Ouellet is available. The former second-round pick has been a bit underwhelming this season, compiling only four goals and four assists.
2018 Midseason UFA Power Rankings: 11-20
With the halfway point of the season now behind us and the trade deadline fast approaching, it’s time to take a preliminary look at the UFA Class of 2018. Here is the first half of our top-20 rankings, based on votes from writers Gavin Lee, Brian La Rose, Nate Brown, Zach Leach and Holger Stolzenberg. We’ll run numbers 1-10 tomorrow, and release an honorable mention group on Friday.
11. David Perron, F, Vegas Golden Knights — When Perron was scoring 20 goals as a 21-year old in St. Louis, he likely wouldn’t have believed that he’d be joining his sixth NHL team just a few days after his 30th birthday. That’s what could happen this summer if Perron isn’t re-signed by the Vegas Golden Knights, and he hits the open market as one of the most consistent forwards available. The winger has 34 points in 37 games and could realistically set a new career-high should he stay healthy down the stretch. For teams looking for secondary scoring from a do-it-all forward, Perron is the easy answer.
12. Joe Thornton, C, San Jose Sharks — Thornton ranked #3 on our midseason list last season, and ended up taking a one-year, $8MM deal to stay in San Jose. This summer could be much of the same, after he proves his seven-goal 2016-17 was just a fluke. Thornton is still one of the great setup men in the league, and has 32 points in 43 games on the year. After playing through torn knee ligaments in the playoffs, he’s shown off inexplicable health once again by suiting up for all 43 games. At 39 next year there is still time for him to bring home that elusive Stanley Cup.
13. Patric Hornqvist, F, Pittsburgh Penguins — We’ve seen the Penguins lose key players to free agency in the past, and if they can’t find the salary room to fit Hornqvist in there won’t be a shortage of teams calling his agent on July 1st. The 31-year old has never scored fewer than 21 goals in a season in which he played at least 64 games, and it doesn’t look like that streak will end this year. A weapon in front of the net on the powerplay and still capable at both ends of the rink, Hornqvist comes with the added bonus of some recent Stanley Cup experience.
14. Tyler Bozak, C, Toronto Maple Leafs — There’s a lot to like in Bozak’s profile, as an elite faceoff man with solid offensive upside, but he does come with some risk. No one would ever claim he’s a defensive specialist, and his game has slowed considerably over the past few seasons. He also will hit the open market at 32, and has seen his minutes diminished this season. Still, a 40-50 point center with plenty of powerplay experience will be an exciting prospect for a team looking to upgrade their depth down the middle.
15. Rick Nash, F, New York Rangers — Nash has certainly not lived up to his $7.8MM cap hit this season (or the last few), but there will surely be some teams convinced they can bring out some of the greatness that was once so apparent. The 427-goal man has just 11 this season, but can still skate well and kill penalties. Like fellow 33-year old Eric Staal, who has found a career renaissance after a stint in New York (albeit a much shorter one), Nash could be a sneaky bargain on the open market for a team willing to take a chance.
16. Thomas Vanek, F, Vancouver Canucks — Vanek was actually #8 on this list last season, but had to settle for a one-year deal with Vancouver after waiting until September to sign. This year, he’s done what he’s always done and continued to find a way to put up points despite obvious red flags in his game. With 32 points in 45 games and nice chemistry building with Brock Boeser, the Canucks could decide to keep him on for another few seasons as they continue their rebuild. If not, his market is about as easy to predict as the lottery numbers.
17. Patrick Maroon, F, Edmonton Oilers — After last year’s breakout playing mostly with Connor McDavid, Maroon looked like a key piece to the Oilers success going forward. Just a few months into the 2017-18 season though, and he looks like a sure-fire deadline rental with an unclear future. Save for the 27-goal output Maroon had last season, he has scored just 45 goals in 264 career games. If those point totals can creep back up in the second half, maybe someone believes he can be a real top-six option on a multi-year deal.
18. Zdeno Chara, D, Boston Bruins — He’ll be 41. He’s lost much of his mobility. He’s on pace for one of the worst offensive seasons of his career. But he’s still 6’9″ and logging more than 23 minutes a night for the Bruins. Chara isn’t the perennial Norris candidate of a decade ago, but there’s no reason why he can’t be an effective option going forward. He’s still a capable defenseman at even strength and one of the top penalty killing options in the league. With a reduced role he could be even more effective. It would be shocking to see him make it to the open market, but stranger things have happened.
19. Jack Johnson, D, Columbus Blue Jackets — The fact that Johnson wasn’t even in the top-20 of two ballots shows just how far he’s fallen in recent years. Once seen as an integral part of the Blue Jackets blueline, with the ability to quarterback a powerplay and log huge minutes, he’s now asked for a trade out of Columbus to get a bigger role somewhere else. At 31, there’s a real chance that his game may have taken a drastic negative turn and teams could stay away from giving him a long-term contract.
20. Daniel Sedin, F, Vancouver Canucks — Interestingly it’s Daniel, not Henrik Sedin that finds himself in the final spot on our rankings despite the latter having more points this season. Though his twin only missed the cut by a few spots, it’s likely Daniel’s better goal total (ten, to Henrik’s two) that makes up the difference. They won’t be going anywhere separately, but it would be a real shame to see them as part of a franchise other than Vancouver at this point in their careers. At 38 to start the 2018-19 season, it might be Canucks or bust.
Rick Nash Staying Put In New York?
The past few seasons have not been kind to Rick Nash. While Nash has been happy to make over $24MM for his services over the course of the past two seasons and 2017-18, he has done so without much fair value returning to the New York Rangers. The three-time 40-goal scorer, who inked an eight-year, $62.4MM deal with the Columbus Blue Jackets back in 2009 before being traded to New York in 2012, has never found much high-level success with the Rangers outside of a Hart Trophy-caliber campaign in 2014-15. Since then, however, Nash has seasons of 36 and 38 points respectively and is on pace for another sub-40 point campaign again this year, scoring even less frequently than the Boston Bruins’ Riley Nash for example. At a cap hit of $7.8MM, the veteran forward has been more of a drain on the Rangers’ cap space than an asset to the club. As an impending free agent, his future is very much up in the air.
Nash’s struggles have been magnified of late, as Larry Brooks of the New York Post writes, by an ongoing scoring drought and his demotion from the team’s top power play unit. Brooks opines that Nash’s declining production over the past few years has all but canceled out his value as a veteran and leader. Brooks doubts that the Rangers would get much in return should they make the impending UFA available at the coming trade deadline. If so, wouldn’t it make more sense for the Rangers to retain a familiar player for a playoff run rather than part with him for a cheap return?
Nash seems unlikely to move at the deadline and may even stay in New York beyond this season. As Brooks writes, “Nash has been a good player for the Rangers but not the game-breaker management anticipated in sending Brandon Dubinsky, Artem Anisimov, a first-rounder and Tim Erixon to the Jackets over the summer of 2012. He was supposed to be the missing piece. Instead, he missed his chance…” Brooks complaint is not with the quality of Nash’s play, but his performance relative to the pieces given up to get him and, of course, the price the team pays to have him on the roster. Yet, with the opportunity to re-sign Nash this summer for a much lower price, that stigma will be gone; it would be a fresh start, but with the same team. It’s the same sentiment that TSN’s Darren Dreger echoed recently, when he said that Nash would prefer to stay in New York and the Rangers would like to keep him. Dreger adds that extension talks have not been started, but all signs point to Nash staying with the Blueshirts through 2017-18 and perhaps even beyond.
Nash, Rangers Have Not Discussed Contract Extension
Even with the season now underway, the Rangers have still yet to engage in extension discussions with winger Rick Nash, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reports in his latest 31 Thoughts column. Aaron Portzline of The Athletic reported back in August that no substantive discussions had occurred and it certainly appears that neither side is in a hurry to kick-start discussions on a possible new deal to keep him in New York.
The 33-year-old is in the final year of his contract that carries a cap hit of $7.8MM and a salary of $8.2MM. While he was one of the top goal-scoring threats in the prime of his career, Nash has seen his production tail off in recent years as he has failed to hit 40 points in each of the past two seasons while missing considerable time due to injury in each.
While it seems like a given that Nash will be taking a pay cut on his next deal, determining how much of one it will be is a bit more of a challenge. The contract that Toronto handed Patrick Marleau (three years, $18.75MM) is likely something that his camp will be pointing to in any negotiations and while that would represent a decrease in pay, that contract would probably be too rich for the Rangers who looked to prioritize cap flexibility over the summer and a deal like that would cut into that considerably. On the flip side, New York may look to a contract former Ranger Eric Staal signed a couple of summers ago with the Wild as a potential comparable, three years with an AAV of $3.5MM.
While it’s still early, Nash isn’t off to the greatest start this season as he has been held off the scoresheet through the first four games while he is averaging 15:59 per night, his lowest ATOI since his rookie season back in 2002-03.
Friedman speculates that on top of prioritizing flexibility moving forward, the Rangers may want to see where they’re at in the standings before deciding whether to pursue an extension or potentially put him on the trade block. Nash’s partial no-trade clause requires him to submit a list of 12 teams he’d accept a trade to if the team requests it; Friedman notes that the Rangers have not yet asked for that list.
Morning Notes: Nash, Maple Leafs, Lightning
Even if John Tavares does re-sign with the New York Islanders, next summer’s free agent crop looks to be much more exciting than this year’s. While in-their-prime forwards like Evander Kane and James van Riemsdyk will likely be the focal point of many rumors, the mid-thirties group will also have some very interesting names. One of those, Rick Nash, was profiled by The Athletic’s Pierre LeBrun, who believes the 33-year old New York Rangers forward can still be among the league’s best.
A two-way game has increased Nash’s value, and though he’ll be 34 by the time July 1st, 2018 rolls around there could be plenty of suitors lined up to add him to the mix. With 416 career goals coming into this season, the 2002 first-overall pick is an interesting name to watch this year.
- The Maple Leafs are apparently working with a straight rotation for at least a couple of positions, as Kristen Shilton of TSN reports that Connor Carrick and Dominic Moore find themselves as the odd men out at the team’s morning skate. Andreas Borgman and Calle Rosen will likely be the team’s third pair, while Eric Fehr will draw back in as the fourth-line center. Still left out in the cold is Josh Leivo, who can’t seem to earn himself a full-time role with the Maple Leafs despite scoring 10 points in 13 games last season.
- Among teams carrying eight defenseman early in the season are the Tampa Bay Lightning who, according to Joe Smith of the Tampa Bay Times, could dress seven for tonight’s matchup with the Washington Capitals. With Tampa’s decision to keep Mikhail Sergachev on the roster, they put themselves in somewhat of a roster crunch. Sergachev is the only defenseman on the roster who is waiver-exempt, and the team would not risk Jake Dotchin or Slater Koekkoek by sending them down to the minor leagues.
Evening Notes: Giroux, Nash, LA’s Goalie Pipeline
The Philadelphia Flyers have spent quite a bit of time pondering how they didn’t make the playoffs a year ago. The team finished with a 39-33-10 season, including a 10-game winning streak, but their 88 points was not enough to propel them into the playoffs. In fact, their 88 points wasn’t even enough to place ninth in the Eastern Conference standings. Nor 10th. Their record notched them an 11th place finish with the Carolina Hurricanes in 12th only by a point. Granted, the Flyers weren’t really that close to the Islanders and Tampa Bay Lightning, who each finished with 94 points, but the team is driven to come back this year.
Of course, Sam Cardichi of Philly.com writes that they will have to do that while integrating four to five rookies into the lineup this year, which likely would include Nolan Patrick, Oskar Lindblom and defenders Samuel Morin and Robert Hagg. That doesn’t even include breaking in a new goaltender in Brian Elliott.
Cardichi writes that he believes the team will be looking for veteran Claude Giroux to have a bounce-back season. After averaging 25 goals over the previous three seasons for the Flyers, the 29-year-old center scored just 14 last year. If he can return to his old form, the Flyers have a much better chance to rebound this year.
- NBC Sports Cam Tucker writes that Rick Nash is also looking to bounce back this season. The New York Rangers’ veteran, who has been a goal-scoring machine in his career is closing in on 500 goals for his career, but has seen the last two years hampered with offensive struggles and numerous injuries. With two seasons in which he combined for just 38 goals, well below his career average, he must come up big this year, before he hits unrestricted free agency after this season. “Every year I want to have the best year possible. But this year, it’s an important year for me personally,” said Nash.
- Jon Rosen of LA Kings Insider writes that the Los Angeles Kings have finally accomplished their goal of building up their goaltending pipeline with three key acquisitions this summer. The team brought in former Minnesota Wild backup Darcy Kuemper to backup veteran Jonathan Quick this year on a one-year deal. That was step one. However, the key acquisitions were signing Notre Dame goaltender Cal Petersen on the first day of free agency in July and then drafting Matthew Villalta in the third round of the 2017 draft this summer. According to Rosen, that stocks the pipeline for the next few years. Petersen was the first goalie to be named captain in Notre Dame’s history and finished with 23 wins, 2.22 GAA and a .926 save percentage in his junior season, taking the team to its third Frozen Four appearance. He also was among the top five finalists for the Mike Richter Award, which goes to the top collegiate goaltender. The 18-year-old Villalta was a third-round pick in the 2017 draft, picking up 25 wins and a 2.41 GAA and a .918 save percentage for the OHL’s Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds.
No Extension Talks Between Nash, Rangers
In the latest piece from Aaron Portzline of The Athletic—a perfect example of why their subscription is worth it—Rick Nash‘s tenure with the Columbus Blue Jackets is examined, and how it makes sense for the two sides to come together at the end of his career for a sort of homecoming. While Portzline doesn’t expect that to happen for another few years, he does report that there have been “no substantive discussions” to keep Nash in New York after his current contract expires next summer. The entire piece is worth a read (especially for one little snippet at the end). 
It’s been expected for a while that Nash wouldn’t return to New York, but a lot of that comes from the relative disappointments his last two seasons have been. Though he has still scored 74 points in 127 games—a 0.58 points per game average, which puts him above players like Patrick Marleau, Jaromir Jagr and Daniel Sedin last year—it’s a considerable step backwards from the lofty heights we’re used to. Nash scored 42 goals in 2014-15 (the third time he’d broken the 40 mark in his career) leading the league in even strength markers. At his best, he’s been one of the very best goal scorers of his generation, with 416 in 989 games.
While he’s unlikely to eclipse 40 ever again, even at 33 he represents a solid secondary scoring option that can be relied upon for 20 or more. He’s never been the most physical player, but his size does still wear on defenders trying to contain him and he’s even earned Selke votes a time or two as one of the league’s best defensive forwards. As Portzline suggests, Nash will certainly get a multi-year contract on the open market next summer.
The Rangers are trying to get younger, and want to give more responsibility to players like Pavel Buchnevich and Jimmy Vesey, but they will have to think long and hard about letting Nash walk. If they’ve already decided that they won’t try to bring him back, he’ll likely be a leading trade candidate at the deadline when there will only be a few million left to pay. He has a 12 team no-trade list, and his contract is actually back-loaded ($8.2MM this season), but with salary retention he could still bring back an asset from the right team.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Rick Nash’s Future In New York
While it may be premature to look ahead to the 2018 off-season and those players who will become unrestricted free agents, it seems that general managers are already turning their focus toward the future. Notably, Cam Fowler, Martin Jones, Carey Price, Marc-Edouard Vlasic have already signed extensions, while the Islanders are clearly making a John Tavares extension their top priority. When one looks at the list of 2018 UFAs so far out, there are many enticing names, including John Carlson, Kyle Turris, Cam Atkinson and many more. Yet, with perhaps the exception of James van Riemsdyk, most of the names on the list appear destined to re-sign with their current clubs, barring unforeseen developments. Of the names that seem possible to move on, Rick Nash jumps out above many others.
Since Nash came into the league in 2002-03, he’s been a remarkably productive winger. Among active players, his 771 career points puts him at 18th. The only younger players above him on the list? Sidney Crosby, Alex Ovechkin, Eric Staal, Evgeni Malkin, and Ryan Getzlaf. Granted, Nash has started to show a serious drop-off in his production the last two season. He missed 35 games since the start of 2015-16 to injury, and totaled only 74 points in the 127 games he played. That’s not a poor figure, but when 23 goals for Nash is considered a positive season, it’s obvious that his prime years may be relegated to memory. Perhaps just as disheartening is his negative possession trend over that same time frame. His Fenwick and Corsi relative have consistently declined since 2012-13, and last season he posted a career worst 46.3% Corsi For.
With all that said, Nash is still an effective tool. He won’t make the $7.8 MM on his current contract, but considering how sparse the 2018 free agent list might actually be, he could find himself a long-term contract elsewhere in the league. The Rangers are already toward their cap ceiling with $71.9 MM on the books, and will have multiple RFAs to re-sign at the conclusion of the year. Notably Kevin Hayes, J.T. Miller, Jimmy Vesey, and Brady Skjei will all be due moderate raises. The team should have enough space to re-sign Nash to a reduced contract (assuming the cap continue to rise around $2 MM), but the team may be interested in accelerating a youth movement. Nash hasn’t under-performed since coming to Manhattan, but he hasn’t been the dominant marquee offensive player when they’ve needed him to be. Through 73 playoff games for NYR, he’s only scored 14 goals.
Nash has accumulated hard mileage due to the way he’s played the game, particularly early in his career. He was the primary offensive force for Columbus for many years, and consistently had to fend off multiple attackers using his frame. As the game has gotten faster over the last few seasons, size has meant less than it probably ever has. Nash is no slowpoke, but his power forward style is becoming less common and less effective as the game has transitioned. Nash will turn 34 at the conclusion of this contract, and he will likely seek out a longer term to assure his career safety. If New York is unwilling to make that commitment, he does have a modified no-trade clause which would complicate matters for GM Jeff Gorton would decide to move him. Nash has a list of 12 teams which he is allowed to be traded to, short of waiving the clause. It also seems unlikely that he will be traded, considering his still substantial role in the offense. If New York looks to be playoff bound when the deadline rolls around, it would be very difficult to ship him off for future assets. Consequently, there’s a very solid chance that this may be Nash’s last season in the Big Apple, and that he could attract a serious market next July. Despite his warts, Nash is a big-bodied winger who has shown he can finish, and shouldn’t be incredibly expensive.