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Salary Cap Deep Dive: Washington Capitals

at CDT | by 3 Comments

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2020-21 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Washington Capitals

Current Cap Hit: $82,524,877 (over the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

G Ilya Samsonov (one year, $925K)

Potential Bonuses
Samsonov: $600K

Samsonov lived up to the hype relatively well in his rookie season although injuries and the early shutdown limited him to 26 games and he was unable to participate in the playoffs.  A lot will be riding on him for the upcoming season where he stands as the likely starter despite the inexperience.  With 2020-21 being another shortened year, he probably won’t have a long enough track record to command a long-term contract and given Washington’s salary cap situation anyway, a two-or-three-year second deal may be better for both sides.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

G Henrik Lundqvist ($1.5MM, UFA)
F Alex Ovechkin ($9.538MM, UFA)
D Jonas Siegenthaler ($800K, UFA)
D Trevor van Riemsdyk ($800K, UFA)
F Jakub Vrana ($3.35MM, RFA)

Ovechkin’s situation is well-known at this point.  He isn’t hiding the fact that he intends to stay with Washington and basically, the only questions are for how many years and how much?  His next deal will have a 35-plus classification but that shouldn’t be much concern.  While there is an expectation that his production will eventually decline, he still should be able to command a similar price tag to what he’s making now.  Vrana continues to improve each season and has firmly established himself as a top-six fixture.  He will have two RFA-eligible years remaining after 2020-21 and with his bridge deal expiring, he’ll be looking for a long-term pact.  In a normal market, something in the $6MM range would make sense and there are enough comparables to make that case in arbitration.

Siegenthaler played a limited role last season but figures to be a part of their longer-term plans.  However, he’ll still be line for third-pairing minutes so while he’ll be arbitration-eligible next offseason (something that wasn’t the case this time around), he still is only going to be able to command a small raise.  As for van Riemsdyk, he’s looking to restore some value after taking a $1.7MM pay cut from his 2019-20 salary.  If he can lock down a regular spot, this could be a nice situation for him to earn closer to double that amount next offseason.

As for Lundqvist, he was signed to be a veteran mentor to Samsonov but that is off the table now following today’s news that he will miss all of 2020-21 due to a heart condition.  He will be eligible to be placed on LTIR as a result but with his low base salary, they won’t have much extra flexibility left by the time they replace him on the roster.

Two Years Remaining

G Pheonix Copley ($1.1MM, UFA)
F Nic Dowd ($750K, UFA)
D Michal Kempny ($2.5MM, UFA)
D Justin Schultz ($4MM, UFA)
G Vitek Vanecek ($717K, RFA)

Dowd saw his output dip slightly last season but for a player making close to the league minimum, expectations weren’t particularly high anyway.  He’s a serviceable fourth center in a roster spot that will need to be kept at that minimum price point for the foreseeable future.

Kempny had emerged as a capable top-four option on the back end but it’s unlikely he’ll play this season after suffering a torn Achilles tendon while training in the days leading up to free agency.  That injury carries a six-to-eight-month recovery timeline which means a lot will be riding on his 2021-22 performance to show that he can still play in that role and be worth a raise that offseason.  His absence helped opened up a spot for Schultz who still landed a strong contract despite a tough season with Pittsburgh.  Clearly, the expectation is that he will be able to get back to his previous offensive levels.  If that doesn’t happen, he won’t be able to command this deal next time around.

Copley and Vanecek will now battle for the number two job behind Samsonov.  The former has limited NHL experience as a backup in Washington and will carry a $25K cap hit if demoted to the AHL.  Vanecek, meanwhile, was Braden Holtby’s backup in the bubble with Samsonov out and may be the early favorite for the role.  Unless one gets into a platoon situation, neither will be able to command top backup money, especially if Samsonov winds up on a bridge deal of his own.

Three Years Remaining

F Lars Eller ($3.5MM, UFA)
F Carl Hagelin ($2.75MM, UFA)
F Garnet Hathaway ($1.5MM, UFA)
D Nick Jensen ($2.5MM, UFA)
D Dmitry Orlov ($5.1MM, UFA)
F Richard Panik ($2.75MM, UFA)

Eller has fit in quite well as Washington’s third center, one that can play up the lineup when need be.  While bottom-six players could see their earnings upside limited due to the pandemic, this should still hold up as a decent value contract in the current marketplace.  Hagelin isn’t able to put up consistent secondary production at this point of his career so while he’s an effective penalty killer and a speedster still, it’s a bit of an expensive deal for his role.  Panik logged just 11 minutes a game last season as he didn’t fit in as well as anyone would have hoped in his first season with the Caps and it’s a deal that they’d probably like to get out of.  Hathaway is a pure fourth liner most nights and this contract is an overpayment as well for someone in that role, though not as significant of one as Panik who was often his linemate down the stretch.

At one point, it looked like Orlov’s offensive production was going to find another level and that, coupled with his all-around play, would make his deal a major bargain.  However, his goal total has dipped from ten goals in 2017-18 to just three and four over the past two years.  But having said that, he’s still a big part of their back end and while the contract may not be the big bargain they had hoped for, they’ve still had a good return on it.  That can’t be said for Jensen though.  His extension that he signed upon being acquired hasn’t panned out well and is a contract they would certainly like to get out of, especially with a capable replacement in van Riemsdyk making a third of that amount.  But with so many teams against the cap ceiling, moving him will be easier said than done.

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What Your Team Is Thankful For: Los Angeles Kings

at CDT | by 6 Comments

We’ve now made it past Thanksgiving and the holiday season is right around the corner. Like the last few years, PHR will take a look at what teams are thankful for but this year comes with a bit of a change. Normally teams would have an idea of where their season was heading, coming up on the one-quarter mark with mountains of statistics to analyze. Instead, in this unprecedented year, the season hasn’t even begun. We’ll still take a look at what each group is excited about and what they could hope for once the calendar turns to 2021.

What are the Kings most thankful for?

The draft lottery.

Everyone was obviously focused on the New York Rangers at the 2020 draft lottery, who moved up from the qualification round group all the way to first overall and earned the right to pick Alexis Lafreniere. But there was another winner that night (well, multiple nights), and that was the Los Angeles Kings. The Kings had just the fourth-highest chance at the top pick going into the lottery but managed to move up a few spots into the second slot and had their choice of the field. Though there were some last-minute rumors that they may choose German forward Tim Stuetzle, the Kings eventually settled on the other top Canadian prospect, Quinton Byfield.

Sure, there are still questions that the 6’4″ center needs to answer—he’ll get the chance at the upcoming World Junior tournament—but there is no one that doubts his raw ability. Powerful, dynamic, and with a nose for the back of the net, Byfield reminds many of a player like Evgeni Malkin when he is at his best. While asking for a future Hall of Famer may be a bit much, the Kings are obviously leaping for joy at the thought of penciling Byfield into the lineup for the next decade-plus.

Who are the Kings most thankful for?

Mark Yannetti.

Who? Casual fans may not have heard Yannetti’s name very often (if at all), but he’s been one of the most important people in the Kings organization the last several years. The director of amateur scouting, he has been responsible for turning the Kings prospect pipeline into one of the league’s best, loaded with blue-chippers that will be impact players in the NHL for years to come. Sure, it may be easy to select someone like Byfield with the second pick, but the Kings look like they’ve hit on several other picks further down the draft board.

Kale Clague. Gabriel Vilardi. Jaret Anderson-Dolan. Michael Anderson. Aidan Dudas. Akil Thomas. Rasmus Kupari. Alex Turcotte. Tobias Bjornfot. Arthur Kaliyev. Samuel Fagemo. The list of players that have either already made their NHL debut or look poised to do so before long goes on and on for the Kings. Yannetti—especially now that the Kings parted ways with former AGM Mike Futa, who was also a considerable part of the draft process—is behind it all and will need to continue his work to get Los Angeles back to contender status.

What would the Kings be even more thankful for?

A desperate contender.

There’s a ton of talent coming for the Kings, but the NHL roster is still littered with aging, expensive veterans. In particular, the cap hits of Dustin Brown, Jeff Carter, and Jonathan Quick, which each extend past the upcoming season (Quick through 2022-23), are tough pills to work around even if they are all some of the most celebrated players the franchise has known. All three have been thrown around in trade speculation the last few years, but at this point it would likely take a desperate contender to actually eat one of the deals. The asset they’d need to include for another rebuilding team wouldn’t be worth the cap relief at this point, meaning the Kings might just have to wait it out.

Even those three may not be the worst of the worst. Anze Kopitar and Drew Doughty, even for all that they’ve meant to the franchise, are set to carry a combined cap hit of $21MM through the 2023-24 season, with Doughty’s contract extending three more years after that. They’re both legends, but you have to wonder if at some point the team will try to get out from under those contracts and hand the reins to their next wave of talent.

What should be on the Kings’ holiday wish list?

2022 draft picks.

The Kings could surprise some this season, but it’s hard to name them a contender at this point. That means they could be destined for a middling draft pick slot, reducing the chance for another real franchise-changing talent. By 2022, when the draft is absolutely loaded at the top, they could very well be out of the basement entirely. Getting some 2022 picks now might be an interesting strategy for a team that is still several years away from real contention. Like we’ve seen with the San Jose Sharks and Ottawa Senators in recent years, sometimes giving up a future pick can come back to really bite you when it ends up in the lottery.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Pittsburgh Penguins

at CDT | by 2 Comments

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2020-21 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Pittsburgh Penguins

Current Cap Hit: $80,181,842 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

D John Marino (one year, $925K)

Potential Bonuses
Marino: $850K

Marino’s rookie season was a strong one as he quickly worked his way into a spot in Pittsburgh’s top four, logging over 20 minutes a game while finishing second in team scoring among defensemen.  If he even simply repeats that performance, he could easily double his base salary next offseason and if he takes a step forward, this deal could get pricey in a hurry.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Zach Aston-Reese ($1MM, RFA)
F Teddy Blueger ($750K, RFA)
D Cody Ceci ($1.25MMMM, UFA)
F Mark Jankowski ($700K, RFA)
F Evan Rodrigues ($700K, UFA)
F Colton Sceviour ($1.2MM, UFA)

Sceviour was the secondary part of the trade that sent Patric Hornqvist to Florida this offseason.  His output has dipped in recent years and while he’s an effective enough player to earn another deal beyond this one, he may have to take a small dip as the depth players get squeezed more and more in this cap environment.  Aston-Reese had a quiet year despite an uptick in ice time.  His role could be lessened this season and if that happens, his arbitration eligibility could wind up working against him if he doesn’t sign early.  Blueger’s first full NHL season was a good one and he played his way into a role beyond the fourth line fairly quickly.  Unless his offensive game improves significantly, he won’t be in a position to land a big raise but he could come close to doubling his current rate.  Jankowski and Rodrigues both were non-tendered by Calgary and Toronto respectively and will look to rebuild some value after having limited interest on the open market.  Both have earned bigger deals in the past but will need to find that form again if they want to get anything beyond a minimum contract or close to it a year from now.

Ceci is coming off of a tough season with Toronto which saw him take more than a $3MM pay cut.  Expectations will be lower here and he’ll be in a role that’s a better fit for him.  It wouldn’t be surprising to see him earn a bit of a raise on his next contract but it won’t come close to what he has made in recent years with AAV’s over $4MM.

Two Years Remaining

G Casey DeSmith ($1.25MM, UFA)
F Kasperi Kapanen ($3.2MM, RFA)
F Sam Lafferty ($750K, UFA)
D Kris Letang ($7.25MM, UFA)
F Evgeni Malkin ($9.5MM, UFA)
F Jared McCann ($2.94MM, RFA)
D Juuso Riikola ($1.15MM, UFA)
F Bryan Rust ($3.5MM, UFA)

Malkin’s name is certainly the headliner among the forwards in this group.  He has shown himself to be capable of being a number one center but hasn’t had the opportunity to play in that role very often for obvious reasons.  If he wanted to go somewhere where he could have that role, he could probably get a multi-year deal close to his current rate, even with the 35-plus designation which carries some extra risks for teams.  However, if he wants to remain with the Penguins (and at this point, that seems like a relatively safe bet), they will almost certainly ask him to take at least a small dip in pay in an effort to try to keep as much of their core together as possible.

GM Jim Rutherford paid a fairly steep price to bring Kapanen back into the fold and the early indication is that he will have a much bigger role than he did with Toronto.  If he succeeds in that spot, he could push for a $5MM or more contract, especially being a year away from UFA eligibility at that time.  Rust very quietly had a career year last season.  After hovering around the 30-point mark the previous three seasons, he averaged more than a point per game and finished second on the team in scoring behind Malkin.  If he reverts back to being the secondary scorer he had been, he’ll be in tough to match his current rate but if his 2019-20 production was a sign of things to come, then he’ll be adding a couple of million per season.  McCann wound up being scratched at one point in the postseason which gives you an idea of how his year ended.  If they wind up keeping Malkin around, his $3.38MM qualifying offer might be too rich for Pittsburgh.  Lafferty figures to play a limited role and they’ll be looking to keep that roster spot close to the league minimum down the road.

Letang has been a fixture on their back end for 13 seasons and can still put up the points at a high-end rate.  However, staying healthy has been an issue and he’ll also carry the 35-plus designation on his next deal.  As a result, it’s hard to see him coming in higher than this rate on his next contract.  If injuries are an issue between now and then, he’s a candidate to go year-to-year with bonuses but a multi-year pact at a slightly lower cap hit could also be appealing.  Rikkola has been a depth option the last couple of years (even spending some time on the wing) and if he stays in that role for the next two, he won’t be in a spot to command a raise.

DeSmith was supposed to be the backup last season but plans changed quickly and instead he spent the year in the minors.  With Matt Murray now gone, he’ll return to the number two role.  As we’ve seen with backups in recent years, those that are above average can still land a pretty good contract and that will certainly be his target if he gets the opportunity to play more than a handful of games here and there.

Three Years Remaining

D Brian Dumoulin ($4.1MM, UFA)
G Tristan Jarry ($3.5MM, UFA)
F Jason Zucker ($5.5MM, UFA)

Zucker was brought in to add another scoring weapon on the wing although the pandemic and quick exit in the bubble means he hasn’t had much of a chance to establish himself.  He did well in limited action and will need to be around the 25-30-goal mark to have a shot at a raise on his next deal.

Dumoulin has never been a big point-producer but has been a key anchor in the defensive end.  However, the willingness to pay a high price for that type of player isn’t as high now in this environment so while he’s undoubtedly a big part of their back end, it’s hard to see him getting any significant boost on his next contract.

Jarry went from being available in a trade last year to their sure-fire starter this season after a strong 2019-20 campaign.  He’s still inexperienced which is why they basically opted for a second bridge deal and by the time this contract is up, they’ll know if he’s their goalie of the long-term future that will earn a somewhat substantial raise closer to the $6MM mark or so or if he’s better off in a lesser (and lower-priced) spot.

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What Your Team Is Thankful For: Florida Panthers

at CDT | by Leave a Comment

We’ve now made it past Thanksgiving and the holiday season is right around the corner. Like the last few years, PHR will take a look at what teams are thankful for but this year comes with a bit of a change. Normally teams would have an idea of where their season was heading, coming up on the one-quarter mark with mountains of statistics to analyze. Instead, in this unprecedented year, the season hasn’t even begun. We’ll still take a look at what each group is excited about and what they could hope for once the calendar turns to 2021.

What are the Panthers most thankful for?

The Pittsburgh Penguins front office.

Getting Patric Hornqvist is nice, but the real magic this offseason for Florida was ridding themselves of Mike Matheson’s contract without having to really sweeten the pot. The team moved Matheson and his huge contract up to Pittsburgh after his play had fallen off a cliff, meaning their salary commitments past the 2022-23 season now lie only with Aaron Ekblad and Sergei Bobrovsky. Sure, Matheson might somehow turn his career around, but he is still set to carry a cap hit of $4.875MM through the 2025-26 season, one of the worst anchors in the league at the moment. Even at his best, that deal provides no room for excess value, meaning it’s deadly for a team like the Panthers who are still trying to push into a contention window.

Who are the Panthers most thankful for?

GM Bill Zito.

So far, so good for the new general manager, who has rid the books of some unhealthy cap and landed a few nice short-term bargains over the last few months. Alexander Wennberg agreed to sign a one-year deal in Florida while the team also landed Markus Nutivaara for almost nothing in a trade with his old team. There is certainly a lot more work to be done, but Zito appears to be turning things in the right direction.

The next big test for the executive will come quickly, as after this season Aleksander Barkov is eligible for an extension. With his bargain deal coming to an end after the 2021-22 season, leaving him an unrestricted free agent, Zito has to get to work on a new contract as soon as possible. The face of the franchise, Barkov will still be only 26 when he could potentially hit the market and a target for every team in the league.

What would the Panthers be even more thankful for?

The return of Bobrovsky.

There is not a single thing that could help the Panthers more than a return to form for Bobrovsky, who posted just a .900 in 50 appearances last season. That’s completely unacceptable for a goaltender making $10MM per season, even if the defense in front of him was not up to snuff. That defense should be improved (somewhat), so the excuses will start to run out for the 32-year-old superstar this season if he can’t get back to at least acceptable levels. One of only 22 goaltenders to ever win the Vezina Trophy more than once, Bobrovsky only has himself to blame if that save percentage doesn’t rebound.

If it does though and Bobrovsky can get anywhere close to the .931 that won him the award in 2017, the Panthers would suddenly become a real contender in the new makeshift divisions. Sure, they still have to deal with their state rival in the Tampa Bay Lightning, but perhaps getting away from the other top Atlantic Division teams for a few months will do them some good.

What should be on the Panthers’ holiday wish list?

Goal scoring.

Wennberg is a fine player to bring in as a reclamation project, and Hornqvist will likely improve their net-front powerplay presence, but it’s hard to really expect either player to fill the shoes of Mike Hoffman and Evgenii Dadonov. The team’s two top goal scorers in 2019-20 became unrestricted free agents and though Hoffman hasn’t actually signed yet, Dadonov inked a deal in Ottawa already. Pulling ~60 goals out of the lineup all at once can be devastating and the Panthers will need to find them elsewhere if they want to compete. Remember the team also traded away Vincent Trocheck at the deadline, removing another one of their best offensive weapons.

Perhaps they can still look outside the organization for a mercenary or two, but the offensive development may have to come from internal sources. There will be more than enough opportunity for a young player like Owen Tippett to show he can fill that goal-scoring role, but nothing is guaranteed at this point. Henrik Borgstrom, another top Panthers prospect, doesn’t even have a contract for the upcoming season yet and is currently in Finland playing with HIFK (or, waiting for the Liiga season to resume, more accurately). If the team doesn’t add firepower and doesn’t get a return to form from Bobrovsky, it could be a long season even with the additions on defense.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Philadelphia Flyers

at CDT | by 7 Comments

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2020-21 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Philadelphia Flyers

Current Cap Hit: $79,238,852 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Joel Farabee (two years, $925K)
F German Rubtsov (one year, $894K)
F Morgan Frost (two years, $863K)
G Carter Hart (one year, $731K)

Potential Bonuses
Farabee: $500K
Rubtsov: $425K
Hart: 83K
Total: $1.1MM

One thing the Philadelphia Flyers have a lot of is balance, which includes quite a few impressive young players on entry-level deals. While he may not be paid the most of the entry-level players, the guy that is likely next to cash in is goaltender Carter Hart. Just 22, the young netminder has been impressive in two seasons. Perhaps the statistic that stands out the most is his numbers when at home. Hart posted a dominant 20-3-2 record at home with a 1.63 GAA and a .943 GAA. Unfortunately his road record wasn’t as good with a 3.04 GAA and a .896 save percentage — something he must work on. Regardless, he will likely command quite a bit when the Flyers try to lock him up to an extension.

Farabee and Frost are two young prospects who could make their impact known as soon as next season. Farabee played in 52 games last year for Philadelphia, scoring eight goals and 21 points, but he could be primed for a breakout season. Frost is the next prospect up. He appeared in 20 games last year, scoring two goals and seven points, but should see more regular time in Philadelphia’s lineup this season and could be a significant contributor down the road.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

D Travis Sanheim ($3.25MM, RFA)
D Erik Gustafsson ($3MM, UFA)
F Scott Laughton ($2.3MM, UFA)
F Michael Raffl ($1.6MM, UFA)
G Brian Elliott ($1.5MM, UFA)
F Nolan Patrick ($874K, RFA)
D Samuel Morin ($700K, RFA)

Sanheim has established himself as a top-four defender on a very young defense and should continue to get better. With the loss of defenseman Matt Niskanen to retirement, Sanheim will be expected to take that next step and become a dominant defeneman for the Flyers. He scored eight goals and 25 points last season, but could be primed for a bigger year. Gustafsson was brought in to fill in the holes on the team’s defense. The 28-year-old was coming off a 60-point season in 2018-19, but failed to duplicate that with either with the Blackhawks or the Flames after he was traded at the deadline.

Laughton has been a useful bottom-six player over the last few years. The 26-year-old provides the team a combination of some offense and some physicality, something the team needs. Laughton finished last season with 13 goals and 27 points in 49 games last season as well as 109 hits, but more importantly stepped up in the playoffs, putting up five goals and nine points in 15 games. The 32-year-old Raffl is much the same, putting up eight goals and 20 points in 58 games with 96 hits.

The most interesting name might be Patrick, who missed the entire 2019-20 season with a migraine disorder. The Flyers hope that the No. 2 overall pick in 2017 can pick up where he left off and eventually become the dominant player he once was despite struggling through a myriad of injuries in the past. When healthy, Patrick can be a dominating, playmaking center. The team hopes to insert him into the lineup as the team’s third-line center to start and see where he goes from there.

Elliott, who has been mentoring Hart ever since Hart arrived, struggled last year and the team hopes the 35-year-old can find his game this season. If not, the team will likely move on from him in a year.

Two Years Remaining

F Claude Giroux ($8.25MM, UFA)
F Sean Couturier ($4.33MM, UFA)
D Justin Braun ($1.8MM, UFA)
D Robert Hagg ($1.6MM, UFA)
F Nicolas Aube-Kubel ($1.08MM, RFA)

Giroux has been one of the most dominant Flyers players in their history with 257 goals and 810 points over his career. He put up 21 goals last year in just 69 games, but did see a decline in his overall points as his point totals went from 85 to 53. At 32 years of age, it’s likely that we’ll see the start of a decline in the next few years, but with two years remaining on his contract, the team does have some relief coming down the road. If Giroux can bounce back this year, he’ll remain a viable player for a few more years and can eventually be signed to a cheaper deal as he reaches his mid-30’s.

Couturier, on the other hand, is also coming off a disappointing season. After two straight 30-goal seasons, he struggled with just 22 goals in 69 games. Of course, had he played the entire 82 games, he may have come close to those goal-scoring numbers, but the 28-year-old should continue to post good numbers for the next few years and his contract looks like a value deal if he can get back to 30 goals once again.

Braun provides some much-needed veteran depth on the blueline after the Flyers traded a second and third-round pick to acquire him last offseason. They still get two more years out of him. Hagg also provides key depth despite an injury plagued 2019-20.

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Who Your Team Is Thankful For: Edmonton Oilers

at CDT | by 4 Comments

We’ve now made it past Thanksgiving and the holiday season is right around the corner. Like the last few years, PHR will take a look at what teams are thankful for but this year comes with a bit of a change. Normally teams would have an idea of where their season was heading, coming up on the one-quarter mark with mountains of statistics to analyze. Instead, in this unprecedented year, the season hasn’t even begun. We’ll still take a look at what each group is excited about and what they could hope for once the calendar turns to 2021.

What are the Oilers most thankful for?

A team that looks to be deep enough to compete near the top.

The team may have two of the best players in the league (see below), but the biggest problem the team has dealt with over the past few years was their lack of top-six and even top-nine depth to assist those two players. However, while the the Oilers have always had Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, he has finally found a place next to Leon Draisaitl and Kailer Yamamoto on the second line. That trio was dominant in the second half of the season once the line was put together.

Edmonton also added several veterans to the roster, adding James Neal a year ago, who showed he wasn’t done yet. They then added Tyler Ennis at the trade deadline and signed Kyle Turris this offseason, giving the team quite a bit of veteran depth to fill in gaps in the middle six.

Perhaps the most interesting player to keep an eye on will be former top prospect Jesse Puljujarvi, who finally returned to Edmonton after playing last year in the Liiga after he left the team due to his lack of playing time. The fourth-overall pick from the 2016 draft hasn’t panned out yet, but is only 22 years old and returns to the NHL with plenty of confidence after being one of the top scorers in Finland’s top pro league.

Who are the Oilers most thankful for?

Two Hart Trophy winners in Connor McDavid and now Draisaitl.

Few teams can boast they have one Hart Trophy winner, let alone two and both McDavid and Draisaitl are still so young that they can still get better. McDavid had put together three straight 100-point seasons and would have done that last year (he had 97 points), but the pandemic stopped that streak. Nevertheless, he is one of the best, if not the best player in the NHL.

Now Draisaitl, who dominated in 2018-19 with a 50-goal, 105-point season, posted another impressive year, scoring 45 and leading the league with 110 points in just 71 games. The two finally were split onto separate lines on even strength, but still dominated together on the power play, giving the team the top-ranked power play in the league by a whopping 29.5 percent, more than four percent better than the second place power play team.

Those two players only make it easier for general manager Ken Holland to build a solid team around sooner than later.

What would the Oilers be even more thankful for?

A return to form of Tyson Barrie.

With an injury to Oscar Klefbom that could keep him out for the entirety of the 2020-21 season, Holland went out and inked Barrie to a one-year deal after the once highly-touted blueliner suffered through a disastrous season with the Toronto Maple Leafs a year ago. Toronto brought in Barrie via trade in hopes of shoring up their deficient defense, but the offensive-minded defenseman never fit into the Maple Leafs’ system and even saw his offensive numbers drop like a stone. Barrie was coming off  two straight 14-goal, 50+ point seasons in Colorado, but managed just five goals and 39 points.

However, in Edmonton with a prove-it deal in hand (as well as no Klefbom to take away power play minutes), Barrie should get every opportunity to find his game and return his status as a top offensive defenseman.

What should be on the Oilers holiday wish list?

A goalie upgrade.

If there is one area of weakness in Edmonton, it’s in net. The team is hamstrung under Mikko Koskinen, who is being paid as a starter, but is a tandem goalie at best. The team had hoped to pry Jacob Markstrom away from Vancouver in free agency, but were outbid by the Calgary Flames. Instead of grabbing at another free-agent, the team opted to sign Mike Smith to another one-year deal. However, the team might be better off searching the trade market at some point and fixing that goaltending situation later in the season, depending on the team’s success this year.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Salary Cap Deep Dive: New York Rangers

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2020-21 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

New York Rangers

Current Cap Hit: $76,670,633 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Filip Chytil (one year, $894K)
D Adam Fox (two years, $925K)
F Julien Gauthier (one year, $863K)
F Brett Howden (one year, $863K)
F Kaapo Kakko (two years, $925K)
F Alexis Lafreniere (three years, $925K)
D Ryan Lindgren (one year, $925K)
G Igor Shesterkin (one year, $925K)

Potential Bonuses
Chytil: $350K
Fox: $850K
Gauthier: $300K
Kakko: $2.65MM
Lafreniere: $2.85MM
Lindgren: $212.5K
Shesterkin: $2.85MM
Total: $10.0625MM

It’s not very often that a team basically has more than a third of their roster on entry-level deals but that’s the case here.  The total bonuses actually exceed the 7.5% bonus cushion so there is a dead cap charge of $3.95MM on the books as things stand and it’s extremely rare for a team to be in that situation but that just shows how many talented youngsters the Rangers have.

Lafreniere was the top pick of the draft back in October and is expected to step into a top-six role right away (or very soon after).  As someone that should make a sizable impact right away, he could easily jump into the $7MM or more range on his next contract.  Kakko, the second-overall pick in 2019, had a difficult rookie season.  That could play a role in talks for his next deal depending on how 2020-21 goes.  If he takes off, then like Lafreniere, he could bypass the bridge contract altogether and go straight to top money.  If he doesn’t, then the likelihood of a short-term second deal becomes much stronger.

Chytil could be their second center of the future but it will take a couple more years for him to have a shot at jumping into that role.  It’s difficult to envision them paying him top-six money before he really establishes himself so a bridge deal is likely.  The same can be said for Howden who established himself as a regular in their bottom six but he’s unlikely to command a significant raise if his production is similar this year.  Gauthier was brought in from Carolina in a late-season trade but has been a fourth liner almost exclusively in his limited NHL action.  He’s in the type of situation where a small dip in pay to get a one-way deal or a higher AHL salary is the standard unless he plays himself into a more prominent role.  Vitali Kravtsov (two years, $925K plus $850K in bonuses) will stay in the KHL through the end of their season but is an option to be recalled once that season comes to an end though their bonus situation may affect those plans.

Fox had an impressive rookie season and narrowly missed out on being a finalist for the Calder Trophy.  42 points from a defenseman is impressive in any year and even if he ‘only’ produces around that mark the next couple of years instead of increasing his point-per-game output, he’s a safe bet for a sizable raise already.  Lindgren has a limited ceiling but fits in well on the third pairing.  Another season in a regular role should give him a bit of a raise but without arbitration rights, he’ll be limited in what he can get next summer.  K’Andre Miller (three years, $925K plus $300K in bonuses) could also play himself into the mix at some point.

Shesterkin still has very limited NHL experience (just a dozen games) but he enters 2020-21 as the presumptive starter.  He made an immediate impact to help carry New York down the stretch last season and if he picks up where he left off, GM Jeff Gorton may try to work out a long-term pact.  If not, a one or two-year deal that allows him to further establish himself before trying to command number one money makes sense.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Pavel Buchnevich ($3.25MM, RFA)
D Jack Johnson ($1.15MM, UFA)
D Brendan Smith ($4.35MM, UFA)

Buchnevich has shown flashes of top-end offensive play throughout his career but inconsistency has been an issue although he did improve on that last year while setting a new benchmark in points with 46.  Assuming he produces at a similar per-game rate this season, the Rangers shouldn’t have much issue tendering a $3MM qualifying offer although in this market, he may not be in great shape to get much more than that.

Smith’s contract has been burdensome for New York basically ever since he signed it as in the first year, he was sent to the minors.  He has done well to carve out a small niche role as a blueliner that can also hold his own on the wing but while that might help him earn another contract, it would be for about a quarter of what he’s making now.  Johnson was bought out by Pittsburgh this offseason and quickly signed with the Rangers.  He’s likely to have a limited role and even if he does rebuild his value a little bit, he shouldn’t be able to command much more a year from now.

Two Years Remaining

D Anthony Bitetto ($737.5K, UFA)
D Anthony DeAngelo ($4.8MM, RFA)
G Alexandar Georgiev ($2.425MM, RFA)
F Brendan Lemieux ($1.55MM, RFA)
F Kevin Rooney ($750K, UFA)
F Ryan Strome ($4.5MM, UFA)
F Mika Zibanejad ($5.35MM, UFA)

It took a bit of time but Zibanejad has emerged as a legitimate number one center and actually beat his 2018-19 point total (74) despite playing in 27 fewer games last season.  While he has eight full NHL seasons under his belt already, he’s still just 27 and will hit the open market at 29 if the two sides can’t agree on an extension by then.  The financial situation league-wide probably won’t have fully recovered by then but at the same time, top centers rarely become available.  If Zibanejad, a top defensive forward on top of his newly-found offensive prowess, can hover around a 70-point pace for these next two years, he could add $3MM to $4MM to his AAV on his next deal.  Without a top option in the system, this will be a priority case for Gorton when he’s eligible for an extension next season.

Strome is coming off of a career year but even that wasn’t enough to guarantee him a qualifying offer as a decision came down to the final few minutes before it was tendered.  They settled on this contract to avoid arbitration and add a year of team control which gives Chytil more time to develop.  Given that he has struggled offensively with two previous teams, he’ll need to show this was more than a one-time bump in output to have a shot at besting this contract two years from now.  Lemieux doesn’t have the offensive upside to play in the top six but he has been an effective physical player which earned him a two-year deal this offseason.  Until he produces more consistently though, his earnings upside will be limited to not much higher than this.  Rooney was brought in from rival New Jersey in free agency and should battle for a spot on the fourth line.  That’s a roster spot that will need to stay at or close to the minimum in future years.

DeAngelo didn’t have much leverage a year ago when he basically had to sign a one-year, show-me deal.  He showed the Rangers and the rest of the league plenty as he was among the top offensive blueliners in the league, earning himself nearly a $4MM raise in the process.  He has played his way into a core role on the team and should be well-positioned for another notable jump if he performs at a similar level the next two seasons as he’ll be a year out from UFA eligibility when his next contract begins.  Bitetto is the favorite for the seventh spot on the back end and like Rooney’s situation, it’s a roster slot that will need to remain at a similar price tag whether it’s him or someone else in that role.

Georgiev has done enough to show that there’s still some upside but it’s fair to wonder if he is viewed as a number one goalie elsewhere.  He’s going to have a hard time commanding number one money if he’s behind Shesterkin but the good news is that top backups can still push for a deal around $1MM higher than his current one.  Assuming their goaltending situation goes according to plan, that’s what Georgiev’s next contract target should be.

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What Your Team Is Thankful For: Detroit Red Wings

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We’ve now made it past Thanksgiving and the holiday season is right around the corner. Like the last few years, PHR will take a look at what teams are thankful for but this year comes with a bit of a change. Normally teams would have an idea of where their season was heading, coming up on the one-quarter mark with mountains of statistics to analyze. Instead, in this unprecedented year, the season hasn’t even begun. We’ll still take a look at what each group is excited about and what they could hope for once the calendar turns to 2021.

What are the Red Wings most thankful for?

Sweden’s development system.

Detroit as an organization has always been known for its willingness to look outside of North America to find the best players in the world, and while that certainly is no longer an attribute limited to just them, it continues to this day in the team’s drafting strategy. Sweden, in particular, has stood out as a proving ground for the Red Wings eventual picks, with four players picked directly from the Frolunda organization over just the past two years.

That group is led of course by fourth-overall pick Lucas Raymond, who likely won’t be in Sweden much longer, but also includes Theodor Niederbach, Elmer Soderblom, and Gustav Berglund. Other Swedes picked in recent years include William Wallinder, Albert Johansson, and Albin Grewe, all selected with picks in the top 66. When the World Juniors hits the screen later this month, don’t be surprised if you hear “Red Wings draft pick” often when watching a Sweden game.

Who are the Red Wings most thankful for?

Steve Yzerman.

At the head of that draft strategy is Yzerman, who has experienced first hand throughout his playing and managing career the kind of impact international players can have. Though the team hasn’t experienced much on-ice success since he took over from Ken Holland in 2019, it’s hard to argue with the job he’s done so far in the rebuild.

The Red Wings prospect system is packed with high-end talent, they have another six picks in the first three rounds of 2021 and the roster is unencumbered by any expensive, long-term deals. In fact, only Anthony Mantha, who received a new deal last month, is signed through the 2023-24 season. Yzerman can form this roster in whichever direction he chooses, but names like Raymond and Moritz Seider are a great place to start.

What would the Red Wings be even more thankful for?

A breakout from one of their older prospects.

There was talent in the system even before Yzerman arrived, too. It’s hard to know where 21-year-old Michael Rasmussen’s career trajectory is pointed at this juncture after a somewhat disappointing first few years, but if he ever did reach his ceiling (or perhaps break through it with his 6’6″ frame) he could be a dynamic presence in the middle of the lineup.

So too could Filip Zadina and Joe Veleno, the two players Detroit selected in the first round of 2018. Both have immense upside as a top-end sniper and two-way center respectively, but neither has quite followed through on that potential just yet. It’s certainly not time to give up on either one, but if there is a breakout coming the Detroit rebuild could be accelerated considerably.

What should be on the Red Wings holiday wish list?

Even more draft picks.

This train is headed in the right direction, but there might be one last year of pain for the Red Wings with the roster as currently presented, meaning one last collection of picks would do the team good. Darren Helm, Valtteri Filppula, Luke Glendening, Bobby Ryan, Sam Gagner, Marc Staal, Patrik Nemeth, Jon Merrill, Alex Biega, and Jonathan Bernier are all scheduled to be unrestricted free agents after this season—you can bet a good number of them won’t finish the year in Detroit.

It’s not that these kinds of players will bring back a huge package of assets, but every third or fourth-round pick they land for an aging-but-capable veteran means another lottery ticket that could turn into something great. (Don’t look now, but Frans Nielsen, Robby Fabbri, Vladislav Namestnikov, Danny DeKeyser, Troy Stecher, and Thomas Greiss will all be UFAs in 2022 and could face similar fates.)

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Salary Cap Deep Dive: New York Islanders

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2020-21 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

New York Islanders

Current Cap Hit: $77,594,163 (under the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

D Noah Dobson (two years, $894K)

Potential Bonuses
Dobson: $537.5K

Dobson was a victim of the NHL-CHL agreement that prevented him from being eligible to play in the AHL.  He clearly had done all he needed to at the major junior level but he also wasn’t quite ready for primetime duty in the top league either.  That might actually help the Islanders when it comes to his second deal as while he burned the first season of his contract, he wasn’t an impact player by any stretch.  He’s undoubtedly a big part of their future plans but he’s unlikely to break the bank with his next contract as things stand.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Anthony Beauvillier ($2.1MM, RFA)
F Casey Cizikas ($3.35MM, UFA)
F Michael Dal Colle ($700K, RFA)
D Adam Pelech ($1.6MM, RFA)
G Ilya Sorokin ($2MM, RFA)

Cizikas has been a very effective energy player for several years.  However, this is a hefty price tag for a player that still spends some time on the fourth line and rarely sees action in the top six.  These types of players – while still effective – are going to feel the squeeze of the flattened Upper Limit so it’s hard to see him coming close to what he’s making now on his next deal let alone a raise.  Beauvillier had a career year last season and has become a consistent secondary scorer.  Between that and arbitration rights, he could have a shot at doubling that price tag if he takes another step forward in 2021-22.  Dal Colle had a limited role last year which only earned him a one-way contract.  He’ll be owed a minimum-salary raise at a minimum next offseason but unless he plays his way into a bigger role, he probably won’t get much more than that.

Pelech is coming off an injury-plagued year but emerged as an under-the-radar top-four defenseman.  If he maintains that role, he’ll be well-positioned to earn a decent raise and with him being one year away from UFA eligibility, GM Lou Lamoriello will likely be looking to buy out a UFA-eligible season or two as well.

Sorokin has yet to play in the NHL but managed to get this high of a salary after burning his entry-level contract while being ineligible to play in the postseason bubble.  He enters this season as the backup which may limit his short-term earnings upside but at the same time, he’s their goalie of the future and is only two years away from being eligible for unrestricted free agency.  He could be one of the more interesting RFA cases next summer as a result.

Two Years Remaining

D Johnny Boychuk ($6MM, UFA)
F Cal Clutterbuck ($3.5MM, UFA)
D Thomas Hickey ($2.5MM, UFA)
F Ross Johnston ($1MM, UFA)
F Leo Komarov ($3MM, UFA)
D Nick Leddy ($5.5MM, UFA)
D Ryan Pulock ($5MM, UFA)

At one point, Clutterbuck was part of New York’s vaunted fourth line, a unit that is now more overpaid than it is vaunted.  They’re still effective but this is another overpayment in their bottom six.  So too is Komarov who isn’t able to hold his own in bigger minutes like he was while playing for Lamoriello in Toronto.  Neither player should come close to matching their current contracts on the open market two years from now.  Johnston isn’t an every-game player but his price tag is at least more appropriate for someone in that role.

While Boychuk’s playing days are over, he’ll remain on the books until his contract expires.  He’s eligible for LTIR and the Islanders will need it to be cap-compliant once everyone is signed.  Leddy’s deal seemed like a bargain early after he was acquired from Chicago but as his production has dipped the last couple of years, that isn’t the case as much now.  It’s not a massive overpayment either as he’s still a top-four option but barring him rediscovering his offensive touch, he is another veteran eyeing a dip in pay.  That will also be the case for Hickey who spent last year in the minors and only is being mentioned here since they’ll still face a sizable cap charge if he’s sent back down this season.

The same can’t be said for Pulock.  The two-year term on his most recent deal certainly raised some eyebrows as it walks him straight to unrestricted free agency in the prime of his career.  He very quietly has established himself as their top defenseman and assuming he continues on his current trajectory, it’s quite possible that he adds another couple of million per year to his next cap hit.  That the Isles opted for this contract shouldn’t be perceived as an indictment on Pulock but rather a reality of who still needs a contract (more on him later).  This was the cheapest way to get him signed and while they’ll benefit from it for the next two years, they’ll pay for it in 2022 when he’ll cost a fair bit more to re-sign.

Three Years Remaining

F Andrew Ladd ($5.5MM, UFA)
D Scott Mayfield ($1.45MM, UFA)
G Semyon Varlamov ($5MM, UFA)

Ladd is yet another of the terrible 2016 UFA contracts that were handed out.  While he was a top-six forward when the deal was signed, he isn’t now and spent most of last season in the minors.  That may be the case again next season and to make matters worse, the structure of the deal makes it virtually buyout-proof.

Mayfield’s five-year extension came with some risk considering he didn’t have even one year’s worth of NHL experience under his belt but it has proven to be a prudent move as he has since established himself as a capable regular.  His offensive production (or lack of) will limit his earnings upside but he should still get a fair-sized raise in his first crack at the open market.

Varlamov had a good first season with the Islanders and eventually wrestled away the number one job.  However, Sorokin is their goalie of the future and the expectation is that he’ll eventually take over the top role from Varlamov.  As a result, it’s fair to wonder if he finishes this team with them; if he does, he’ll probably have a hard time commanding similar money from a 1B or backup role.

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What Your Team Is Thankful For: Dallas Stars

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We’ve now made it past Thanksgiving and the holiday season is right around the corner. Like the last few years, PHR will take a look at what teams are thankful for but this year comes with a bit of a change. Normally teams would have an idea of where their season was heading, coming up on the one-quarter mark with mountains of statistics to analyze. Instead, in this unprecedented year, the season hasn’t even begun. We’ll still take a look at what each group is excited about and what they could hope for once the calendar turns to 2021.

What are the Stars most thankful for?

Last season’s Western Conference title.

Yes, ultimately losing in the Stanley Cup Final typically isn’t something to be thankful about but it has changed the perspective of their program in its entirety.  This was a team that had been viewed by many as potentially vulnerable, offensively deficient heading into the bubble with a veteran core that didn’t exactly have a good regular season.  Were they on the way down?

Clearly, the answer was no.  Instead, those players produced at better rates than they did during the regular season when a lot of times, the opposite occurred.  Anton Khudobin stepped up in Ben Bishop’s absence, showing that they have one of the top tandems in the league (another thing they’re certainly thankful for).  Now weeks away from the anticipated start of training camp, the Stars are viewed as a team that’s capable of winning now.  Not many were saying that during the pandemic-induced layoff; their run to the Final shows that this core still has something left in the tank.

Who are the Stars most thankful for?

Naturally, after speaking positively about their veteran core, let’s now go in the exact opposite direction and look at their youngest player in Miro Heiskanen.  There are young defensemen that teams hope can one day ascend to that number one role.  The 21-year-old is two years into his career and is already at that level.  He’s coming off of a stellar postseason where he led the team in scoring and the sky is seemingly the limit.

Dallas is also certainly thankful that he’s still on his entry-level contract that restricts him to a base salary of $925K (including his signing bonus).  It’s rare to have a number one blueliner making less than a million dollars in base pay and it’s the type of high-value contract that has allowed them to keep the core of the team intact for another run in the postseason.  That will soon change as that deal is up at the end of the season but for now, their best defenseman just happens to be their lowest-paid regular.

What would the Stars be even more thankful for?

Further delaying the start to next season.  That may sound crazy but they are down their starting goaltender in Bishop and their top center in Tyler Seguin with both players expected to be out into March at a minimum.  The fewer games they play without those two, the better off they should be in the standings, especially with Khudobin having relatively limited experience as an every-game starter.

What should be on the Stars’ holiday wish list?

More scoring depth.

One way of looking at things is that they scored enough to make their way through the Western Conference in the playoffs.  The glass half-empty viewpoint mentions that they were 28th in the league in offense last season with their goaltending allowing the second-fewest goals that helped keep them in the top half of the conference.  It’s true that they’ve been able to keep their core intact but at the same time, they didn’t really add to it.  There’s room for optimism for some of their younger players to take steps forward and grab a bigger share of the offensive pie but they’d undoubtedly love to add another veteran with a track record of consistent production.

They’ll have LTIR space to play with early on due to the injuries of Bishop and Seguin while Stephen Johns’ availability is uncertain but their cap room when everyone is healthy is minimal so GM Jim Nill will have his work cut out for him to try to add to their attack.  It’d go a long way if he could find a way to do so.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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