We’ve now made it past Thanksgiving and are firmly in the holiday season. Like the last few years, PHR will take a look at what teams are thankful for but this year comes with a bit of a change. Normally teams would have an idea of where their season was heading, coming up on the one-quarter mark with mountains of statistics to analyze. Instead, in this unprecedented year, the season hasn’t even begun. We’ll still take a look at what each group is excited about and what they could hope for once the calendar turns to 2021.
What are the Predators most thankful for?
A depressed free agent market.
When the offseason began, it seemed clear that the Predators would be saying goodbye to Mikael Granlund, one of the best forwards available. The team grabbed a few depth players like Brad Richardson, Nick Cousins, and Mark Borowiecki, but looked like they would be mostly relying on internal growth for any improvement next season. Instead, over the last few weeks, the team has been able to re-sign Granlund and add Erik Haula for a grand total of $5.5MM. The no-risk one-year deals are excellent assets for the club whether they have success or not this season. The fact that both players will be motivated to improve their stock is even better.
Who are the Predators most thankful for?
A year ago, when he was still earning just $4MM per season, this answer was easily Roman Josi. The Predators captain had one of the most team-friendly deals in the entire league, but that has now disappeared as Josi will carry a cap hit just over $9MM through 2027-28. Sure, he’s still one of the best two-way defensemen in the league and just took home the Norris Trophy after an incredible season, but the excess value he provides has now been slashed dramatically, if not removed entirely.
Ryan Ellis may still provide some with his $6.25MM hit, but it’s Ekholm that really makes the Predators’ cap work at this point. The 30-year-old defenseman will earn just $3.75MM for each of the next two seasons despite still being an upper-echelon option on the back end. Ekholm recorded 33 points in 68 games last season, an 82-game pace that would have given him a shot at his second straight 40+ point season to go along with strong play in his own end. There isn’t a team in the league who wouldn’t take him at his current price, especially given the deal will expire just after he turns 32 and the decline phase really kicks in. Whether the Predators decide to extend Ekholm is a decision for down the line, but right now his might be the most important contract on the books.
What would the Predators be even more thankful for?
A few more goals from the top of the roster.
13 goals. 14 goals. 15 goals. Those are the 2019-20 totals for Matt Duchene, Ryan Johansen, and Viktor Arvidsson, three players that need to be better for the Predators this season. The first two are both carrying long-term cap hits of $8MM per season, making them some of the most expensive forwards in the entire league. 27 goals and 78 points between them is unacceptable and must change for the team to have any real chance of competing for a Stanley Cup. Arvidsson on the other hand is a bit cheaper at $4.25MM, but that’s what made him so valuable in the past when he was posting goal totals of 31, 29, and 34 (in just 58 games!) prior to last year. Now 27, Arvidsson’s return to the 30-goal mark would be a huge boost in Nashville’s quest for a playoff spot in the new Central Division.
What should be on the Predators’ holiday wish list?
Another depth defenseman.
Honestly, even with the top three soaking up so many minutes and Dante Fabbro taking many of the rest, there should be some concern in Nashville about the Predators’ defensive depth. Borowiecki is a beloved teammate and a warrior on the penalty kill, but he’s proven before that he can’t step into a top-four role with any sort of real effectiveness. Matt Benning and Jarred Tinordi don’t offer much upside either, meaning the Predators are just one injury (or, in today’s world, illness) away from having a problem.
There are still some names on the free agent market that could help. Even beyond Sami Vatanen and Travis Hamonic, who seem unlikely fits for one reason or another, veterans like Ron Hainsey or Ben Hutton could make sense. There are certainly others on the trade market that could be acquired, depending on price, but the Predators are toeing a thin line with the group they have right now, even if it is loaded at the top.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images