Pro Hockey Rumors Originals

What Your Team Is Thankful For: Anaheim Ducks

November 14, 2022 at 3:42 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee 2 Comments

As Thanksgiving and the holiday season approaches, PHR will be taking a look at what teams are thankful for in 2022-23. There also might be a few things your team would like down the road. We’ll examine what’s gone well in the early going and what could improve as the season rolls on for the Anaheim Ducks.

Who are the Ducks thankful for?

Pat Verbeek.

It hasn’t been a good year for Anaheim. The team is off to a 4-10-1 start, has allowed 67 goals in 15 games, and recently lost young defenseman Jamie Drysdale for up to six months. But there are better times ahead.

When Pat Verbeek took over as general manager in early February, he explained that he wasn’t sure what direction to take the team in. There were several pending unrestricted free agents on the roster – core players that were well-liked by the organization – and he could have re-signed them to keep the group relatively intact. But Verbeek took another route and began to sell off those expiring assets in an attempt to reshape the roster. Josh Manson, Nicolas Deslauriers, Hampus Lindholm, and Rickard Rakell were all sold off at the deadline.

It’s easy to look at the success of someone like Lindholm in Boston and think that was a mistake, but don’t forget just how much the team landed in those few days of March. The Ducks came out of the deadline with an extra first-round pick, four second-round picks, a third-round pick, and several interesting prospects. This year could be much of the same.

While it isn’t Lindholm on offer, the Ducks do have John Klingberg to flip after signing him to a one-year deal in the summer. Kevin Shattenkirk, Dmitry Kulikov, and Nathan Beaulieu are other potential defensemen that could be on the move. Anthony Stolarz is a potential backup option that could be flipped to a contender, while veteran forwards like Adam Henrique and Jakob Silfverberg are only signed through 2023-24 and could also be moved in the right circumstances.

The Ducks may not be competitive in the standings but they will certainly be involved come trade season.

What are the Ducks thankful for?

Draft lottery changes.

It’s a good time to be bad. When the NHL introduced new draft lottery rules in 2021, one of the biggest changes was the ability to only move up ten spots. That eliminated any chance of a team just barely missing the playoffs and still somehow snagging the first-overall pick. They also reduced the number of lottery selections from three to two, meaning even if there is a swap, finishing last guarantees you at least the third selection. This is a huge boost for rebuilding clubs like Anaheim, who find themselves near the very bottom of the standings.

In a draft that includes three (and maybe four or five) franchise-altering talents, this assurance of selection is important. The Ducks have a good shot at adding another premier player to a group that already has names like Trevor Zegras and Mason McTavish. Imagine Conor Bedard on a powerplay with those two, or Adam Fantilli anchoring the middle of another line. You can bet that Verbeek is already daydreaming about what might be possible.

What would the Ducks be even more thankful for?

A resurgent John Gibson.

In the first five seasons of John Gibson’s career, he was one of the most dominant goaltenders in the league. A .921 save percentage, 119 wins, and night after night of spectacular saves. But for nearly three and a half years now, he’s been something else entirely. The 29-year-old netminder has a .902 save percentage since the start of 2019 and has lost 103 of his 153 starts. Every metric you look at rates him as a below-average goaltender, even when adjusting for the poor play in front of him.

This season, he leads the league in goals against (45 in 11 starts) and has a .888 save percentage. He’s been peppered, facing the most shots of any goalie, but he’s also been extremely unreliable.

One of the things that many executives preach about a rebuild is that it is difficult to develop players around bad goaltending. When youthful mistakes turn into goals, it can hinder some of the creativity that makes a young player so dynamic. As the Ducks transition over the next few years, and try to build up the program again, Gibson will need to show he can play to his former level. Otherwise, it’s hard to imagine him being on the next competitive Ducks team.

What should be on the Ducks’ holiday wish list?

A call from a needy contender.

When the Ducks were able to convince Klingberg to sign with them this offseason, there was no hiding the plan. The team built it right into his trade protection. Klingberg has a full no-trade clause through the end of 2022, and then on January 1, it turns into a 10-team no-trade. He’s going to be flipped at the deadline, it just depends on which team needs a puck-moving right-handed defenseman the most.

If there are many, that bidding war could be quite beneficial to a team that has invested nothing but salary into the player. Klingberg is earning $7MM this season on the one-year deal and is averaging more than 23 minutes a night. By retaining half of his remaining contract, the Ducks should be able to get themselves another nice piece to slide into the puzzle.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

PHR Mailbag: Kings, Predators, Change Of Scenery Candidates, Blues, Hall Of Fame, Avalanche, Bruins

November 13, 2022 at 6:58 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 3 Comments

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include the early-season struggles for multiple Western Conference teams, possible trade candidates, the Hockey Hall of Fame, and more. If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s mailbag column.

J.H.: Could you see the Kings making a change from McLellan if their defensive, structural issues lead to a prolonged slump? The added offense is nice, but the breakdowns, turnovers, and various other miscues have cost them several games. System issues like that probably shouldn’t be happening now in year four, especially since there are actual expectations for this team after last year’s playoff appearance. Are there any other potential coaching changes you could foresee that would be surprising yet plausible like that?

bigalval: Kings have given up the most goals of any team what is wrong with them?

Let’s put the Los Angeles questions together. First, it’s worth noting that they’ve won three straight since the first one was posted which might change things up a bit. I don’t think McLellan’s future is overly secure as yes, there are some structural issues and if you look at his last job with Edmonton, this was around the time when they made a change. But thanks to that three-game win streak, they’re in the top three in the Western Conference so they’re likely not leaning towards making a move.

If I was going to speculate about a coaching change, this feels like a good landing spot for Barry Trotz if he was willing to return. He would fix up some of the defensive breakdowns with his systems although it would likely come at the expense of some scoring, an area where things have been going quite well in the early going. That would also help solve some of the goaltending woes.

One of the concerns I had about the Kings going into this season was between the pipes. Yes, Jonathan Quick had a bounce-back year last season but his last three years were below league average. Accordingly, it was unrealistic to expect that his 2021-22 performance would carry over. It hasn’t. Calvin Petersen had a tough showing last year which was cause for concern this season and his numbers early on are worse than last season. Going into this season with that duo and no demonstrable improvement on the back end (beyond a return to health for Drew Doughty) was risky. Right now, it’s holding them back.

Gbear: The Preds have for the most part looked like a well below-average hockey team so far this season, how long of a rope do you think John Hynes has if this type of play continues?

I think he still has a lot of rope left. GM David Poile is known for being patient and has made a grand total of one in-season coaching change in franchise history, one that dates back to 1998. A slow start alone probably isn’t going to be enough of an indictment to pull the trigger quickly.

How much of their early-season struggles are based on coaching and how much of those struggles are attributable to roster composition? Looking at their roster, there are a lot of fringe or unproven players filling out that lineup. That’s not a good thing.

There’s also the matter of last year having some unsustainable performances. How many think that Matt Duchene and Ryan Johansen will produce at a similar rate this season and beyond? I don’t even think Poile did as his upgrades to the roster were of the free variety, ones that didn’t push in any younger assets as a team with eyes on contending might be willing to do. Poile’s actions this summer were that of a GM that knows his team is a bubble squad.

Right now, the Predators sit near the bottom of the West but aren’t too far out of the playoff race. That’s slightly underachieving but probably not to the point where a coaching change is seriously being considered.

Johnny Z: Where is Bo Horvat going?
Where is Brossoit going?
Will the Sabres go after Kane?

I have a hard time thinking that Vancouver isn’t going to find a way to keep Horvat in the fold. The market rate for centers like him is in the mid-$7MM range and if the Canucks get around there, I think they’d be able to work something out from there. I wonder if they might be waiting to see if they get some sort of indication or an updated estimate of next year’s cap to see if they can afford to give him that extra little bit to get a contract done. I’m not convinced he’s going anywhere unless they really fall out of the mix over the next couple of months and they decide to really shake up the core. If that happens, ask me again closer to the trade deadline.

Laurent Brossoit made it through waivers this week which takes away my original answer of Winnipeg. That is, unless they prefer to trade for him using David Rittich to offset some of the difference in salary; with attendance down, those little differences might matter. Right now, I think he stays put for a little while and gets some regular reps in the minors. If he can do that, stay healthy, and play well, then he becomes a trade candidate with either a little bit of retention or some sort of salary offset for whoever has a goalie go down with a long-term injury over the next month or so. Unfortunately, that makes it next to impossible to predict where he’ll go since we can’t forecast who will have goalie injuries.

Patrick Kane to Buffalo has long been speculated and for obvious reasons. But I still don’t understand the notion of trading for him. They’re probably not making the playoffs and considering he’s a Buffalo native, I don’t think they need to try to sell themselves and the market to him; I’m pretty sure he knows what’s what already. He should be dealt to a legitimate Stanley Cup contender and that’s not Buffalo. Now, come July, the answer should almost certainly be yes. As a free agent, with no cost beyond the contract, Kane would make a lot of sense for the Sabres as a veteran to help drag them from being a non-playoff team into one that should battle for at least a Wild Card spot. But that’s a move for them to make next summer, not before then.

Gmm8811: It’s still early in the season…I usually wait till 20-23 games played to decide if a team needs to be blown up or not. With that being said, what are your thoughts on the Blues dumping players for draft picks? We’ve talked salary cap issues coming up in past conversations…the fact that Armstrong isn’t afraid to let a team favorite go…I think it was a big mistake to give Kyrou and Thomas those huge extensions. Might be time to make some significant moves. 6 mil for Binnington is ridiculous also.

I don’t think St. Louis is at that spot just yet. First, it is still too early to make that type of core shakeup. This is a team that has eyes on contending this season and while they’re at the bottom of the Western Conference, they’re a quick winning streak away from being back in the race. Second, who has cap space to take on a pricey player for a draft pick? 18 teams are currently in LTIR and several of the 14 that aren’t are aiming for the bottom of the standings. That doesn’t create much of a trade market at this point of the season.

We know that GM Doug Armstrong isn’t afraid to shake things up but there’s a different element at play now. With those big extensions to Jordan Kyrou and Robert Thomas kicking in next season, that squad is likely to be weaker than this one. In other words, this is probably the last real kick at the can for this core group. It’s one thing to part with a core player within the context of knowing that the core is still good enough to contend for a little while longer but they can’t say that here.

Is a rough stretch to start the season enough to kickstart what could be a rebuild? Probably not. Don’t get me wrong, if they’re still at the bottom of the conference come midseason, then Armstrong will almost certainly be laying the foundation for trades at the deadline (as again, cap situations around the league make big trades before that point less likely). But that’s a decision to make at the 45-game mark, not 15.

If you want some reason for optimism, the Blues’ shooting percentage suggests they’re due for some good bounces to get closer to that league average. Jordan Binnington might not be worthy of a $6MM AAV but he’s a better goalie than he has shown so far. A better performance from him, a bit more puck luck on the goal side, and this St. Louis team is probably at least back in the mix over the next couple of months.

Breakaway: As per Twitter, Connor McDavid was traded!!! It wasn’t real but what star player could be traded that has most of us saying… “I didn’t see that coming”?

The name that immediately came to mind when I first saw this question is Arizona’s Clayton Keller. Yes, it might seem odd that I’m picking a Coyote but for all the rumors and speculation surrounding their good players over the years, he hasn’t been in any of them. Their stated intention is to keep him but with GM Bill Armstrong acknowledging to NHL.com’s Dan Rosen earlier in the week that their goal is to make the playoffs within five to six years, is keeping Keller, who’s signed for six more years, really viable? Will he want to lose for several more years? If the answer to both of those is no, then he’s a star that could be moved that could still catch some people off guard.

I assume you’re wanting a name that isn’t quite that obvious, however. If Columbus decides that they tried to come out of the rebuild too early, I could see a scenario where they try to move Patrik Laine since Johnny Gaudreau isn’t going anywhere and while he’s not the elite scorer he was a few years back, he’s still a star player. If Alex DeBrincat isn’t amenable to signing a long-term extension with Ottawa and the Sens find themselves out of the playoff picture, GM Pierre Dorion might be pressed into a move which is something few would have seen coming back at the draft when they acquired him.

Still too logical? How about Mitch Marner? This is more of a pie-in-the-sky type of guess but Auston Matthews and William Nylander are up for new deals before Marner and they still have a roster that’s still too top-heavy in terms of money distribution. If they re-sign Matthews, I don’t think they can keep Nylander and Marner. Do they opt to sign Nylander at a higher rate long-term and move away from Marner instead of it being the other way around? I could see that happening but that would be more of a next summer move than an in-season one. That might not be one that many would see coming though.

trak2k: Are there certain plateau numbers in the NHL that should get someone into the Hockey Hall of Fame, say 500 goals and or 1,000 points?

For example, in MLB if a hitter gets 3,000 hits and or 500 home runs there’s a decent chance they get in the Baseball Hall of Fame. Same with a pitcher getting 300 wins.

I find there seems to be a lot more subjectivity when it comes to voting for the Hockey Hall of Fame. The panel is much smaller and they are sworn to secrecy about discussing anything about the vote. When the Hall released its list of eligible players, it emphasized a minimum of 1,000 games played, 300 goals, 400 assists, or 700 points for skaters and 400 games played, 200 wins, or 25 shutouts for goalies. Those feel like a minimum standard although it’s a bit low.

Your proposed thresholds look pretty good. There are 46 players in NHL history that have scored 500 goals. Of those, three are still active and one (Patrick Marleau) isn’t eligible yet. Of the other 42, all but five are in there so that seems like a good baseline. As for 1,000 points, 98 have gotten there and 11 are either inactive or not yet eligible. Of the remaining 87, 68 are in there with the highest among non-inductees being Pierre Turgeon (39th in all-time points). So on a percentage basis, you have a 78% chance of getting in with 1,000 points so that’s reasonable as well.

I’ll add that with several different eras (like baseball), it’s hard to compare players today to players of a generation or two ago. That’s where Paul Pidutti and his Adjusted Hockey project comes in as he tries to create an era-adjusted more uniform standard for comparison. Daily Faceoff’s Frank Seravalli interviewed Pidutti earlier this month with some more information about the project if you’re interested.

@iwtfwc: It’s early in the season but, with all the injuries, and the search for some cohesion with the middle and bottom six, what are the chances that Avalanche make a move via trade for a rental this season? P. Kane? R. O’Reilly? V. Tarasenko? Etc.?

Colorado’s injury situation makes it extremely unlikely that they’ll be able to make a move for someone of consequence right now. They’re now into LTIR and will need to make sure that they’re cap compliant when Darren Helm and Gabriel Landeskog return. Their other injuries to Valeri Nichushkin, Bowen Byram, and now Shane Bowers (who will be out and thus on their books for six weeks) will make it difficult for Colorado to get under the LTIR line and bank some cap space. While they’d probably like to make a move to shore things up now, they can’t really afford to.

Having said that, I think the odds are quite high that they will make a move but it will be one that comes at or very close to the trade deadline to minimize the money that comes in. That’s the time that teams will be more willing to retain 50% as well. I anticipate that their focus will be adding help down the middle so Ryan O’Reilly is a possible candidate if St. Louis is out of the mix, same for Horvat if Vancouver can’t extend him and they’re not in the playoff picture. If they have to aim a little lower, Montreal’s Sean Monahan could also be an option as a middle-six veteran that can win some key faceoffs. Help will be coming but it won’t be for a few months.

DarkSide830: When can we expect the Bruins to hire a better PR department?

I’m not sure the decision to sign and subsequently release Mitchell Miller falls on the PR department. This was a hockey decision and it’s one that they weren’t going to be able to put much of a positive spin on. Of course, that decision will be felt for a little while, especially since they still have to terminate that contract, one that might carry a cap penalty if they opt for a buyout next summer. They won’t be spinning that one in a positive light either.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Boston Bruins

November 11, 2022 at 6:47 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 2 Comments

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation for the 2022-23 season and beyond. This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Boston Bruins

Current Cap Hit: $84,435,581 (under the $82.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

G Jeremy Swayman (one year, $925K)

Potential Bonuses
Swayman: $150K

Swayman had a very nice rookie season that saw him serve as part of an effective platoon which was the role he was expected to play this year although an early injury has stalled that somewhat. Generally speaking, a fairly limited track record should limit him a bit on his next contract (almost certainly a bridge deal) although his camp will be using Spencer Knight’s three-year, $13.5MM extension as a comparable. Something a bit less than that could certainly be doable.

Signed Through 2022-23, Non-Entry-Level

F Patrice Bergeron ($2.5MM, UFA)
D Connor Clifton ($1MM, UFA)
F Nick Foligno ($3.8MM, UFA)
F Trent Frederic ($1.05MM, RFA)
G Keith Kinkaid ($750K, UFA)
F David Krejci ($1MM, UFA)
F Tomas Nosek ($1.75MM, UFA)
F David Pastrnak ($6.67MM, UFA)
F Craig Smith ($3.1MM, UFA)
D Anton Stralman ($1MM, UFA)
F Chris Wagner ($1.35MM, UFA)
F Pavel Zacha ($3.5MM, UFA)

Potential Bonuses
Bergeron: $2.5MM (already reached)
Krejci: $2MM ($1MM already reached)

Bergeron and Krejci agreed to team-friendly one-year deals that gave this core one last chance to go for it but the downside is the bonus overage penalty that is on the way. You might have noticed above that $3.5MM in bonuses have already been hit while Krejci will hit another $500K within the next few weeks if he stays healthy and the other $500K is attainable if they make the playoffs which is looking likely. Both players could get considerably more on the open market if they wanted to but have made it clear they don’t want to go anywhere else. They could sign similar contracts next summer or the Bruins might have quite a vacancy to fill next summer. Right now, they’re benefitting quite nicely from these contracts with the big hit coming in 2023-24 when those bonuses will hit the cap. Zacha was brought in to potentially audition for one of Bergeron’s or Krejci’s spots a year from now but he continues to be hit or miss in the offensive zone, a trend he has had throughout his career. Still, as a young center with size, there will be lots of interest but it’s likely to come around the $3.5MM mark on a multi-year agreement.

Pastrnak is the most notable player of the many on this list. While there are some prominent wingers that are set to hit the open market this summer, Pastrnak is the best of them all (and also the youngest). Heading into the season, an extension around the $10MM mark looked possible but with the start that he’s having to his year, that feels like it could be on the low end now, especially with there being some speculation that the salary cap may jump a bit more than the expected $1MM next summer. Could Artemi Panarin’s $11.643MM (the record for a winger) be attainable? If he keeps up the current pace, he’ll have a very strong case to make to eclipse that mark on a max-term deal.

Foligno’s first season with Boston was nothing short of a disaster as he had just two goals in 64 games. To his credit, he has gotten off to a better start this season and already passed the two-tally mark but at this point of his career, he’s closer to being a fourth liner than an impact middle-six option and his market should correct accordingly next summer. Smith is usually good for double-digit goals and 30-plus points each year and is the type of player that can fit on a third line and move up in a pinch. The market for those players has really cratered in recent years so a dip in pay seems likely although he could still get a multi-year deal.

As for the other forwards, Nosek continues to be a faceoff specialist that can kill penalties and even with limited production, he’ll still have some suitors. That said, as fourth lines get cheaper, he might come up a bit short of this price next summer. Wagner is currently in the minors but as a physical energy player, he’ll have some interest in July but it’s likely to be on a deal that’s either at or a little under $1MM. Then there’s Frederic, the lone RFA in this group. He has settled in as a capable fourth liner and while that’s not a great return on a first-round pick, he should be able to get a small increase on his $1.15MM qualifying offer.

Clifton has been a role player for most of his career, working his way into a regular spot on the third pairing. Generally, that profile tends to stay around this price tag. However, he has picked a great time to take a step forward and has done well in a top-four role in the early going this season. If that holds up, he could market himself as a 28-year-old top-four right-handed defender. That could push him past the $3MM mark if the demand is high. Stralman took a PTO deal and eventually got converted to a full contract but has played sparingly this season. If that holds up, he’ll be hard-pressed to make this much on his next deal.

Kinkaid is currently on the roster because of Swayman’s injury so he gets a quick mention here. He has been a serviceable third-stringer in recent years which should allow him to get a good two-way agreement that guarantees more than half of what his NHL pay would be, similar to the deal he has now (which has a $400K AHL portion).

Signed Through 2023-24

F Jake DeBrusk ($4MM, UFA)
D Derek Forbort ($3MM, UFA)
F A.J. Greer ($762.5K, UFA)
D Matt Grzelcyk ($3.6875MM, UFA)
D Mike Reilly ($3MM, UFA)
D Jakub Zboril ($1.1375MM, UFA)

After some prolonged stretches and a lengthy trade request that was eventually rescinded, DeBrusk is starting to produce more consistently. If he can score 25 goals this year and next (matching his 2021-22 total), he’ll be in good shape to command a pricier contract with a longer-term agreement than he has been accustomed to at this point of his career. Greer is getting his first taste of regular NHL action and is doing rather well. If that continues, he could have a chance at doubling his price tag.

Grzelcyk never really has been able to take a big step forward offensively but he has settled in nicely as a second pairing player that will chip in with 20-25 points per season on average. He’s also a strong skater which helps in this era of teams coveting mobility from the back end although, at 5’9, he’s one of the smaller defenders in the league. That might hurt his market a bit in the end but he should be able to get a bit more than this in free agency. Forbort is more of the old-school type of defender, bigger and more physical but he has had a bit more of a limited role with Boston compared to his time with Winnipeg or even Los Angeles earlier in his career. It’s possible that in 2024, he’ll be viewed more like a fifth option which would make it difficult to get as much as he is now at that time.

Reilly has been a depth defender for most of his career but turned a strong 2020-21 year into this contract, one that is on the pricey side right now. Clearing waivers notwithstanding (cap troubles mean a lot of quality players would clear), he’s someone that should settle in closer to half this price tag on the open market. Zboril dealt with injuries last season, putting Boston in a spot where they could get him on the cheap. He has been a sixth or seventh defender in the early going, similar to his usage before this season. If that continues, this could wind up being close to his ceiling in terms of his next contract.

Signed Through 2024-25

F Taylor Hall ($6MM, UFA)
F Brad Marchand ($6.125MM, UFA)
G Linus Ullmark ($5MM, UFA)

Marchand is another veteran that has long been on a team-friendly contract. It’s fair to surmise that he might slow down by the end of this (he’ll be 37 when he next is UFA-eligible) but even if he does, they’ve gotten enough surplus value to make up for it. It wouldn’t be surprising to see history repeat itself with Marchand taking a cheaper team-friendly one-year deal in 2025. Hall never really was able to get back to the level of his Hart-winning year with New Jersey although he has settled in as a quality second liner. This price tag is reasonable for that role and with the cap expected to be much higher by 2025, a similarly-priced contract could be achievable if he’s still playing at a similar level by then.

There was some risk cooked into Ullmark’s contract considering he had all of 117 career NHL appearances at the time and had never made 34 starts in a season. This is an expensive contract for a platoon goalie although with the way he’s playing this year, he looks like more of a true starter. Swayman will eventually cut into his playing time but Ullmark’s performance early on with the Bruins should be enough to convince a team he’s a legitimate starter which will either make him a good trade candidate in a couple of years or help him earn at least a small raise on the open market.

Signed Through 2025-26 Or Longer

D Brandon Carlo ($4.1MM through 2026-27)
F Charlie Coyle ($5.25MM through 2025-26)
D Hampus Lindholm ($6.5MM through 2029-30)
D Charlie McAvoy ($9.5MM through 2029-30)

Coyle has been a player that has shown flashes of legitimate top-end upside throughout his career followed by quiet stretches that hurt his value. The results were mixed in his first test at being a second-line center. In that role, his price tag is justifiable. If he’s on the wing or on the third line, it’s a little harder to find value. Krejci won’t be around much longer so he’ll get another crack playing down the middle in the top six which gives him a shot at living up to this deal.

McAvoy has blossomed into a legitimate number one defenseman and has finished in the top ten in Norris voting in each of the last three seasons. While it’s difficult to call someone on this contract a relative bargain, if his 56-point outing from last year is a sign of things to come, it’s possible that could be the case here. Lindholm came over from Anaheim at the trade deadline and quickly inked this max-term extension. It’s fair to question if his current offensive pace is sustainable (he’s averaging a point per game with his career-high in points being just 34) but it doesn’t need to be to justify this cost. This is fair value for a number two defender and that’s a role that Lindholm should be able to hold onto for a while even if the last couple of years might be a bit on the expensive side. Carlo is a dependable defensive defender that won’t contribute a whole lot offensively. Those players have definite value to a team but it’s harder for them to command pricey contracts in free agency. Unless he’s able to break through on that end over the next several seasons, his earnings ceiling might not be much higher than it is now.

Buyouts

None

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Best Value: Pastrnak
Worst Value: Foligno

Looking Ahead

Right now, Boston has been using LTIR to stay cap-compliant but that’s going to get trickier once Forbort is healthy as he’s the only one on there right now. At that time, GM Don Sweeney might have to get a little creative to free up the space to get back to compliance. Barring a significant injury that opens up a lot of LTIR room, it’s difficult to envision the Bruins being able to add a piece during the season unless it’s a player-for-player swap that matches money.

With the Bruins being in LTIR up to this point, they haven’t been able to bank cap space which presents a situation where most, if not all of the bonuses, will hit the cap next season. That alone will probably more than eat up any increase to the Upper Limit. That certainly won’t help when it comes to trying to afford Pastrnak’s next deal and new contracts for Bergeron or Krejci (or their replacements). They’ll get some help with some of their other expirings coming off the books but it’s still going to be a tight fit.

From a longer-term perspective, things are pretty clean as Boston only has seven players under contract for 2024-25 and beyond which will give Sweeney a fairly blank canvas with which to try to rework his core group but things will be a bit tight between now and then.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Submit Your Questions For The #PHRMailbag

November 11, 2022 at 2:00 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee 35 Comments

We’re now nearly a month into the 2022-23 regular season and things certainly haven’t gone as expected. The New Jersey Devils lead the Metropolitan Division while the Pittsburgh Penguins are on the league’s longest losing streak, the Vegas Golden Knights have received some of the best goaltending in the league from Logan Thompson and Adin Hill, and the Chicago Blackhawks have maintained some semblance of credibility with a 5-5-2 record despite admitting to a rebuild.

With that in mind, we’re well overdue for another edition of the PHR Mailbag.

Our preseason bag was broken into two pieces. In the first, our Brian La Rose broke down some of the specific details of professional tryouts and two-way contracts, and pointed out a few teams that seemed to be okay “running it back” instead of making significant changes in the offseason. In the second, he examined Matt Dumba’s future with the Minnesota Wild, predicted the St. Louis Blues as a team that would underachieve this year, and suggested how quickly Matthew Beniers could find relevance after his excellent late-season showing last year.

You can submit a question by using #PHRMailbag on Twitter or by leaving a comment down below. The mailbag will run on the weekend.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Winnipeg Jets

November 10, 2022 at 9:00 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 1 Comment

Winnipeg Jets

Current Cap Hit: $79,878,398 (under the $82.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Morgan Barron (one year, $925K)
F Cole Perfetti (two years, $894K)
D Dylan Samberg (one year, $925K)

Potential Bonuses
Barron: $850K
Perfetti: $850K
Samberg: $350K
Total: $2.05MM

Barron came over from the Rangers at the trade deadline last season and saw regular action down the stretch in a limited role. That spot in the lineup carried over to this year where he was doing well before suffering a wrist injury). Even so, he’s not likely going to produce enough to hit his ‘A’ bonuses while he’s a candidate to take a contract that’s cheaper than this one but is a one-way pact. Perfetti held his own in his first taste of NHL action last year and has impressed in the early going this season while seeing a lot of action in the top six which will give him a good chance to hit some of his bonuses (four ‘A’ ones). Notably, although he burned his first entry-level year last season, he did not accrue a season towards free agent eligibility so he’ll be five years away from UFA status. That could make him a candidate for a three-year bridge deal (or even four years) with an AAV in the $3MM-$4MM range if he’s able to stay in that role.

Samberg is looking to establish himself as a regular but has been in and out of the lineup early on. Assuming that continues, he’s also a candidate to sign a short-term bridge deal that’s cheaper than this one in exchange for a one-way pact or a two-way contract with an above-average AHL salary.

Signed Through 2022-23, Non-Entry-Level

F Pierre-Luc Dubois ($6MM, RFA)
F Axel Jonsson Fjallby ($750K, RFA)
F Sam Gagner ($750K, UFA)
F Saku Maenalanen ($750K, UFA)
G David Rittich ($900K, UFA)
D Logan Stanley ($900K, RFA)
F Dominic Toninato ($750K, UFA)

Dubois’ future in Winnipeg has been in question for some time and the fact he accepted his qualifying offer without even attempting to go through arbitration was telling. He has told the team that he won’t sign a long-term deal with them at this time so if nothing changes, he’s probably heading for a one-year agreement in the $7MM range. If he goes elsewhere or changes his mind, a long-term deal closer to $8MM per year is doable. As for the other four forwards, Gagner’s market was weak this summer which likely won’t change barring an offensive breakout while the other three are just hoping to establish themselves as regulars. The Jets are in a spot where they don’t necessarily have to keep this many roster spots at the minimum but if they’re able to do so, that does give them some flexibility to add elsewhere.

Stanley is still trying to establish himself as an every-game regular and while he played in 58 games last year, his ice time was still somewhat limited. He should be in a position to get more than his $1MM qualifying offer but it’s unlikely that they’ll find common ground on a long-term deal; a one-year contract that buys both sides more time to evaluate makes a lot of sense as a result.

Rittich is looking to turn things around after a tough year with Calgary last season. A rebound performance could push him closer to $2MM a year from now but if he puts up a similar performance, he may be in tough to find a guaranteed one-way contract. His stock has dropped quite a bit over the last couple of years.

Signed Through 2023-24

D Kyle Capobianco ($762.5K, UFA)
D Dylan DeMelo ($3MM, UFA)
D Brenden Dillon ($3.9MM, UFA)
F David Gustafsson ($775K, RFA)
F Jansen Harkins ($850K, UFA)
G Connor Hellebuyck ($6.167MM, UFA)
F Mark Scheifele ($6.125MM, UFA)
F Blake Wheeler ($8.25MM, UFA)

Wheeler got off to a tough start last season but to his credit, he rebounded nicely to have a productive year. However, that level of production isn’t worthy of his current cap hit but that’s also something GM Kevin Cheveldayoff likely expected at this point of the contract. He’ll be 38 when he next is eligible for free agency and while there should be some interest, it’s likely to be at half of this rate or less. The same can’t be said for Scheifele. His deal has been a team-friendly one throughout and he’ll be 31 on the open market where he could land close to a max-term agreement. He has been at or above a point per game for the last six years and while some regression will be likely in the final few seasons, it’s possible that he could push for close to $9MM in free agency, especially as the salary cap will be starting to go a bit higher by then.

Harkins’ season didn’t get off to a great start as he cleared waivers but he’s back up for the time being at least. He’s another player that is still trying to get established as an NHL regular. If that happens between now and the end of this deal, he could surpass the $1MM mark on the open market but if not, he’s someone that might have to drop down to a two-way contract. Gustavsson is a recent example of taking less than his qualifying offer to get more guaranteed money as he’s also trying to become a full-timer. So far this season, he’s holding his own on the fourth line but will need to do more than just log light minutes if he wants any sort of meaningful increase.

Dillon has been somewhat of a higher-priced stabilizer the last few years. He’s serviceable as a fourth option but in an ideal scenario, he’s anchoring a third pairing. That said, he also has a strong track record so there’s a good chance he can land a contract similar to this one both in cost and term (four years) on the open market. DeMelo is another stabilizer type although he’s one that Winnipeg hoped could play in the top four but it hasn’t played out like that. He has been a pricey number five but he’s a right-shot defender who won’t hurt a team most nights. There’s a lot of demand for that type of blueliner so he also should be able to land a multi-year agreement around this price tag in 2024. Capobianco is yet another player that’s looking to get established as a full-time NHL player (there’s a pattern with how the Jets have filled those depth spots this season) after being non-tendered by Arizona. He only made his debut with the team yesterday which isn’t a good sign. Unless something changes, he’ll be at or near the minimum once again.

Hellebuyck has led the league in saves in four straight seasons which is an impressive feat; in an age where teams have been trending towards platoons, he’s still a workhorse between the pipes. He has been quite impressive early on this year with numbers close to his Vezina-winning campaign. While signing a 31-year-old (his age in 2024) goalie to a long-term deal will carry some risks at the back end, he should have considerable interest around the league. He has made a bit above the median for a starter throughout this contract and as the Upper Limit starts to rise, there’s a very good chance that trend will continue which could put his next deal closer to the $7MM mark if not a bit higher.

Signed Through 2024-25

F Mason Appleton ($2.167MM, UFA)
F Nikolaj Ehlers ($6MM, UFA)
D Neal Pionk ($5.875MM, UFA)
D Nate Schmidt ($5.95MM, UFA)

Ehlers has settled in nicely as a winger that’s going to hover around 25 goals and 60 points in a season. His price tag for that role is certainly a reasonable one. He should be someone that really benefits from the higher cap at that time; the winger market has been weaker lately but three years from now, that shouldn’t be the case which will have him well-positioned to add a million or more on his next deal which should be close to a max-term agreement. Appleton struggled last year with Seattle which resulted in a reunion with Winnipeg while this contract reflects an expectation that he can get back to performing at the level he did in 2020-21. If he does that, this contract will be just fine; otherwise, it’ll be a small overpayment.

Schmidt’s stock has dropped in recent years. After being a solid two-way threat with Vegas, he struggled in Vancouver and was a cap dump to Winnipeg a year later where he at least had a decent first year with the Jets. He needs to be around the 30-point mark to have a chance at living up to his contract and three years from now, it seems likely that he’ll be heading for at least a small dip in pay. That’s not the case for Pionk. Being four years younger than Schmidt certainly helps on that front while his peak production has been higher than Schmidt’s and he’s a right-shot defender. Barring a return to the level of production in his first year with Winnipeg (45 points), he shouldn’t be in line for a significant increase but a long-term deal in the $6.5MM to $7MM range is achievable even if he stays around the 35-point mark.

Signed Through 2025-26 Or Longer

F Kyle Connor ($7.143MM through 2025-26)
F Adam Lowry ($3.25MM through 2025-26)
D Josh Morrissey ($6.25MM through 2027-28)

Connor emerged as a legitimate top-line star last season, finishing tied for fifth in the NHL in goals while logging nearly 22 minutes a night, an impressive ATOI for a forward. Pure scorers generally generate extra interest in free agency and it’s fair to say that Connor’s track record demonstrates that he’s one of those. If he stays on this trajectory, he looks like a candidate for a double-digit AAV four years from now. Lowry is a bit on the higher-paid side as far as a typical third-liner goes but his ability to play center and the wing, move up and down the lineup, and provide a very robust physical game allows the Jets to get a lot of value from the contract even if the offensive bang for the buck isn’t always there. That said, unless that production improves, he probably won’t get much more than this on his next deal.

Morrissey isn’t a true top rearguard but that’s the role he has held with Winnipeg for several years now. An uptick in his production would go a long way towards becoming that type of number one defender and he made some strides on that front a year ago. If he picks up where he left off and can get to the 10-goal, 40-point mark, he’ll become a bigger bargain for Winnipeg in a hurry and give himself a good shot at a significant raise down the road.

Buyouts

None

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Best Value: Connor
Worst Value: Wheeler

Looking Ahead

All things considered, Winnipeg’s cap situation is pretty strong both now and down the road. They have ample cap space (relatively speaking) to add a couple of players up front closer to the trade deadline while their defensive depth (moving someone like DeMelo or Dillon) could allow them to fill a hole and perhaps create a spot for Ville Heinola to rejoin the team.

From a long-term perspective, things are pretty clean. There aren’t many long-term contracts on the books and as some below-market deals expire, so too do some above-market ones which should allow Cheveldayoff to move money around to keep their core intact and potentially add to it over the next few years. That’s certainly not a bad spot to be in by any stretch.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Big Hype Prospects: Lysell, Hutson, Thomas, Robidas, 2023 Draft

November 3, 2022 at 5:30 pm CDT | by Ethan Hetu 4 Comments

Welcome to PHR’s Big Hype Prospects series. Like the MLB Trade Rumors series of the same name, we’ll be taking a regular look at the performances of top prospects from across the hockey world. We’ll look at drafted prospects who are rising, others who are struggling, and prospects for the upcoming draft who are notable.

Four Big Hype Prospects

Fabian Lysell, RW, Boston Bruins (Providence, AHL)
7 GP 2G 7A 9pts

The consequence of the Bruins organization’s relentless pursuit of their second Stanley Cup victory since 2011 is that the team has been left with precious few prospects who can be confidently projected as future impact players, meaning players who fill top-six roles in a forward corps or a top-four role on defense. Winning is always the first priority, so there are few Bruins fans who would reasonably complain about the level of success the team has experienced in the past decade, but that still leaves the franchise in an unclear long-term position.

Lysell, the team’s first-round pick in 2021, has performed so well early this season that he seems to be cementing himself as far and away the Bruins’ most talented prospect. After a 2021-22 campaign in the WHL that was strong, (but maybe not the above-and-beyond dominant type of season that someone such as Dallas Stars prospect Logan Stankoven had) most believed that the AHL would serve as the first true test of Lysell’s young career. Playing against men at an elite professional level can be extremely challenging for many prospects, and quite a few struggle to translate their junior scoring numbers to the pro game, where generating offense can require a different approach.

Lysell has not struggled whatsoever. Playing next to a creative offensive dynamo in Georgii Merkulov and a capable veteran AHL scorer in Vinni Lettieri, Lysell has burst out the gates with nine points in his first seven games. He has shown an advanced ability to deceive defenders and utilize his blazing speed in order to create time and space with the puck. He looks in line to have a big year in Providence, and if he keeps this up it’ll be difficult to imagine him skating anywhere else but on one of the Bruins’ scoring lines next season.

Lane Hutson, LHD, Montreal Canadiens (Boston University, NCAA)
7 GP 3G 5A 8pts

Despite a draft year where he was arguably the best, most dynamic defenseman in the U.S. National Team Development Program, Hutson fell all the way to the back of the 2022 draft’s second round, where he was snagged by the Montreal Canadiens.

Why? Because there aren’t many defensemen in the NHL who stand under five-foot-ten, and Hutson is measured between five-feet-eight and five-feet-nine inches tall. Hutson’s diminutive stature and lack of elite separation skating ability pushed him down NHL draft boards, and some believed that Hutson would not be able to remain an impact defenseman at a more challenging and physically demanding level of hockey.

So far, Hutson has aced that test. With eight points in seven games, Hutson has led the Terriers to an 11th-place ranking in the most recent ranking poll. He has been the same dynamic, pace-pushing offensive generator out of the back end that he was at the USNTDP, and his effort level on defense has not waned. He was recently named the Hockey East Defender of the Month, and could make teams who passed on him sweat if he continues to excel in his first collegiate campaign.

Akil Thomas, C, Los Angeles Kings (Ontario, AHL)
7GP 4G 2A 6pts

As mentioned in Lysell’s section, there are some prospects who score exceedingly well at the junior level and then have trouble translating those numbers into production as a professional. For the past two seasons, former OHL star Akil Thomas looked like one of those players.

In his rookie AHL campaign, Thomas showed some promise, scoring 26 points in 40 games, but there were still some issues in his game that needed to be worked out. Thomas underwent double shoulder surgery and struggled immensely upon his return. He scored just 13 points in 40 games, and as a 22-year-old his prospect stock seemed to have declined sharply since his days as an elite junior player.

This season, Thomas seems to be repairing his standing in a Kings prospect pool that looks highly competitive. Playing on a line with fellow 2018 draftees Aidan Dudas and Tyler Madden, Thomas will be a player to watch this season to see if he has sorted out how to be an impact offensive player as a professional. While the Kings have many other prospects vying for NHL call-ups, don’t be surprised if Thomas finds a way to make his NHL debut this season if he can keep up this level of scoring.

Justin Robidas, C/RW, Carolina Hurricanes (Val d’Or, QMJHL)
12 GP 9G 13A 22pts

Similar to Hutson, Robidas is a prospect whose physical shortcomings cost him in the draft process. After a point-per-game season in the QMJHL, Robidas was drafted in the fifth round of the 2021 draft, 147th overall. Robidas’ speed, motor, and overall work ethic have been his best traits, but his five-foot-eight height is something that gives many evaluators pause when considering his pro projection. Since his draft day, though, Robidas has far outperformed his fifth-round billing.

He was named the captain of the Foreurs last season and impressed with a 30-goal, 82-point campaign. So far this year, Robidas has picked up where he left off. Robidas has scored nine goals and 22 points in just 12 contests, and he looks likely to finish among the top scorers in the QMJHL.

Sure, Robidas’ offensive game can often lack a deceptive or manipulative element to it, meaning he might struggle to be an impact scorer as a professional. Still, Robidas’ development into a junior league star gives more confidence to his projection as a potential bottom-six forward who endears himself to coaches and fans alike with his work ethic, leadership, and tantalizing speed.

A Look to the Top of the 2023 Draft

Regina Pats forward Connor Bedard has attracted most of the attention when it comes to next year’s NHL draft, and for good reason. Bedard is arguably the most talented draft prospect since Connor McDavid was an Erie Otter, and Bedard’s play has lived up to the hype so far this season. But the attention paid to Bedard shouldn’t distract from the fact that the top end of this draft looks stacked in terms of raw talent.

Take Adam Fantilli, a forward now playing for the Michigan Wolverines. Before this season, Fantilli was in the conversation as the second, third, or fourth-best prospect in the draft according to most outlets.

Now, Fantilli has begun the year scoring at a historic pace and has firmly seized the mantle of “best prospect not named Bedard” in this year’s class. On a Wolverines team loaded with top prospects, Fantilli has scored 18 points in just eight games. He’s been scoring at a pace reminiscent of Jack Eichel’s 71-point draft year, and could end up like Eichel as a number-one caliber talent who goes number-two behind a once-in-a-generation star.

Looking beyond Fantilli, there are some other prospects who are surging in the early part of this season. Swedish center Leo Carlsson has burst out the gates early on this year, scoring 11 points in 15 SHL games for Orebro. That scoring pace is at the moment higher than the legendary Henrik Sedin’s 34-point draft campaign all the way back in 1998-99. Carlsson’s prospect profile would land him in the conversation for the number-one pick in most draft years, but this year he may not even be selected in the top three.

Unlike most years, finishing in the league’s last-place spot this season might be something fans of downtrodden franchises come to celebrate. Based on the league’s new lottery rules, a last-place finish would secure a club a top-three pick in the draft, meaning the team would be guaranteed, at the very least, Carlsson or Russian phenom Matvei Michkov. (assuming Bedard and Fantilli are selected first and second)

Getting that sort of guarantee, the chance to draft a player who could potentially be the face of their franchise for an extended period of time, might just be worth the pain of a nightmarish last-place season. Based on how each of those four players has started off their 2022-23 campaigns, it seems that even teams at the bottom of the standings will have something special to look forward to.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: St. Louis Blues

November 2, 2022 at 9:00 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose Leave a Comment

St. Louis Blues

Current Cap Hit: $84,237,279 (over the $82.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Jake Neighbours (three years, $835K)

Potential Bonuses
Neighbours: $82.5K

After holding his own in a nine-game stint last season, Neighbours is expected to hold down a regular spot this year. It’s too early to forecast the next contract for the 2020 first rounder but it’s worth noting that his bonuses are games-played based and with St. Louis into LTIR, those could roll over and be applied on their cap next season.

Signed Through 2022-23, Non-Entry-Level

F Noel Acciari ($1.25MM, UFA)
F Ivan Barbashev ($2.2MM, UFA)
F Logan Brown ($750K, RFA)
G Thomas Greiss ($1.25MM, UFA)
D Niko Mikkola ($1.9MM, UFA)
D Scott Perunovich ($750K, RFA)
F Tyler Pitlick ($750K, UFA)
F Ryan O’Reilly ($7.5MM, UFA)
F Vladimir Tarasenko ($7.5MM, UFA)
F Alexey Toropchenko ($750K, RFA)

Potential Bonuses
Greiss: $250K

O’Reilly is the veteran that many expect to be the one that ultimately gets re-signed. While he’s off to a particularly tough start this season, the 31-year-old has been a strong two-way center over the past several years while being elite at the faceoff dot. Those are elements that will certainly be in high demand and should keep his cost high even as he slows down offensively. Right now, a small dip could be expected but if he turns around and has a 25-goal, 60-point year when all is said and done, his next contract could be very close to this one.

Tarasenko’s future in St. Louis has been in question dating back to last season when his trade request wasn’t granted. To his credit, he responded in the best way possible with a career year that saw him pick up 82 points in 78 games while he’s off to a pretty good start early on this season as well. In doing so, he has put some of the questions about the health of his shoulders to rest as well. At this point, it’s still difficult to see him staying in St. Louis (especially with who else needs to be re-signed) but the 30-year-old is certainly positioning himself to be one of the top wingers on the open market next summer. Accordingly, another contract in this range could be doable.

Barbashev is a player many are keeping an eye on this season to see if his 60-point performance was a one-off or a sign of things to come. If it’s the former, a small raise to an AAV starting with a three could still be doable but a repeat showing could double that on the open market. Acciari has impressed the coaching staff early on and was bumped up to the front line but that’s likely a short-term promotion. He’s more of an energy player and as long as he stays healthy, it should be mission accomplished on bolstering his value which could put him in a spot for a multi-year agreement in the $1.5MM range. Pitlick couldn’t land a guaranteed deal through training camp but got one off an extended PTO. That’s likely to be the route he needs to take next year.

As for the RFA-bound forwards, both Brown and Toropchenko are at the stage where they’re looking to establish themselves as NHL regulars. Both have had limited ice time in the games they’ve played so far and that alone isn’t going to be enough to land a raise of significance. St. Louis will need to keep these end-of-roster spots at or near the minimum so it will be interesting to see if they can get these two to take another year around this price tag.

Mikkola was scratched at times last season but still managed to get this deal in exchange for avoiding arbitration this past summer. His role has been quite limited this year which doesn’t bode well for his market value. However, he still has fewer than 100 NHL games under his belt so there could be a team that feels there’s some untapped upside so even if he stays in a number six role, his market could be strong enough to get a small raise next summer. Perunovich took a one-year show-me deal and then fractured his shoulder which will probably keep him out for the rest of the year. Accordingly, another one-year, low-cost pact could be coming his way, especially since he won’t accrue a season toward arbitration eligibility if he doesn’t play this season.

Greiss was brought over in free agency to be a more cost-friendly backup goaltender but it wouldn’t be surprising to see him kept below 20 starts to avoid the bonus payout. He’ll be 37 next summer so he’ll likely be on one-year deals from here on out but after a tough year with Detroit, a bounce-back showing could give him a stronger market in July.

Signed Through 2023-24

D Robert Bortuzzo ($950K, UFA)
D Calle Rosen ($762.5K, UFA)
D Marco Scandella ($3.275MM, UFA)
F Nathan Walker ($750K in 2022-23, $775K in 2023-24, UFA)

Walker is a nice story of perseverance as next season will be his first one-way contract after nine seasons on a two-way deal. He’s one of those players that fits at the minimum in an end-of-roster spot but it’s hard to see him getting much more than what he will get next year.

Scandella fit in well after he was acquired midseason in 2020 but this contract hasn’t been a good one for them. He struggled last year and will miss most (if not all) of this season after undergoing hip surgery which has created the LTIR space that they’re currently using. At this point, he’s someone that could be looking at a pay cut of 50% or more in 2024. Bortuzzo is a depth defender that has signed a variety of low-cost deals to stay with the Blues. If they’re comfortable with him in a seventh role two years from now, that trend could continue with a contract similar in value to this one. Rosen has bounced around in recent years between the NHL and AHL and is likely to stay at or close to the minimum unless he’s able to establish himself as a full-timer at the top level.

Signed Through 2024-25

F Pavel Buchnevich ($5.8MM, UFA)

The 27-year-old fit in quite well last season, putting together a career year in his first season with St. Louis. If he can repeat that performance over the next few seasons, Buchnevich could be highly sought after in 2025 with a price tag that would be similar to Tarasenko’s. That’s a big if, however, but even if he checks in closer to the 60-point range instead of the 76 from a year ago, he could get closer to the $6.5MM range on his next contract.

Signed Through 2025-26 Or Longer

G Jordan Binnington ($6MM through 2026-27)
D Justin Faulk ($6.5MM through 2026-27)
D Torey Krug ($6.5MM through 2026-27)
F Jordan Kyrou ($2.8MM in 2022-23, $8.125MM from 2023-24 through 2030-31)
D Colton Parayko ($6.5MM through 2029-30)
F Brandon Saad ($4.5MM through 2025-26)
F Brayden Schenn ($6.5MM through 2027-28)
F Robert Thomas ($2.8MM in 2022-23, $8.125MM from 2023-24 through 2030-31)

Thomas and Kyrou are on identical contracts this season and that will be the case for the long haul now. They both vastly outperformed their bridge deals last year, establishing themselves as core players in the process which led to these agreements. With somewhat limited track records still, these do carry some risk but it’s clear that GM Doug Armstrong was factoring in the future cap increases with his thinking. They might be a bit above market next year for a season or two but over time, they should get a good return on these contracts as long as they continue to be impact forwards.

Schenn is coming off his best year in terms of per-game averages and he has produced a bit above that level this season so far. At this point, he’s still a quality top-six forward that can play both center and the wing and they’ll get a good return for a few more years at least. With the heavier style that he plays which takes its toll over time, there are some concerns about how the final few seasons could look but for now, this contract shouldn’t be a concern. Saad opted for stability over a pillow contract to try to rebuild his value and the Blues benefitted from that decision. He’s a capable top-six winger at a relatively team-friendly value now and as the cap goes up, it should become more club-friendly along the way.

Faulk’s acquisition and extension didn’t look great early on but last year, he turned a corner and had one of his best performances. He draws a lot of value from his production and should have a few more good years in him on that front. Krug also had his best season in St. Louis last season but isn’t the type of minutes-eater that Faulk is. While they’re not true number one options, they’re both valuable defenders and are strong anchors of their by-committee approach.

Parayko is supposed to be in that category as well. He has shown flashes of offensive upside in the past and if he could ever channel that with some consistency, he could become that true number one defender that St. Louis is lacking. However, he hasn’t been able to do so and while he logs heavy minutes, he’s more of a complementary defender when he isn’t producing. They’re paying him to log tough minutes and produce and that hasn’t happened often enough just yet.

Buyouts

None

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Best Value: Thomas (this season)
Worst Value: Parayko

Looking Ahead

Armstrong will have one chance to make a move to upgrade his roster in-season using whatever is left of Scandella’s money. While LTIR room doesn’t accrue like regular cap space, it seems reasonable to expect that he’ll wait until closer to the deadline to see what exactly his team needs while trade partners might be more willing to retain salary at that time.

Let’s do some quick math. St. Louis has over $71MM in commitments to 14 players next season. There’s no way they can afford to keep or replace both O’Reilly and Tarasenko so one core player is likely heading elsewhere for 2023-24. The following season, they have over $64MM tied up in 11 players. Basically, until the Upper Limit starts to increase significantly, the Blues aren’t going to be able to add to their core group.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Nashville Predators

October 30, 2022 at 7:51 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 4 Comments

Nashville Predators

Current Cap Hit: $80,873,601 (under the $82.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

None

Signed Through 2022-23, Non-Entry-Level

D Mark Borowiecki ($900K, UFA)
D Alexandre Carrier ($733K, RFA)
D Dante Fabbro ($2.4MM, RFA)
F Cody Glass ($874K, RFA)
F Tanner Jeannot ($800K, RFA)
G Kevin Lankinen ($1.5MM, UFA)
F Michael McCarron ($750K, UFA)
F Zach Sanford ($850K, UFA)
F Kiefer Sherwood ($750K, UFA)
F Cole Smith ($750K, UFA)

It feels like Glass is in a make-or-break year. After spending most of last season in the minors, he broke camp with Nashville and has been a regular early on. Young centers with size get long leashes and simply holding down a regular role will earn him another opportunity, albeit at one that isn’t much higher priced than this. But if he can’t do that, they could look to move on. That won’t be the case for Jeannot who became an impact power forward last season and is off to a strong start this year. If he tops the 20-goal mark again, comparable contracts elsewhere could push him past the $5MM mark, especially with arbitration eligibility.

As for the pending UFAs, Sanford didn’t have a particularly strong market this summer and quickly settled for this contract with the hopes of rebuilding his value. With limited minutes early on, that’s unlikely to happen and accordingly, his next deal should come in close to this one. Smith has held a regular role early but with limited NHL experience prior to this season, he’d be hard-pressed to pass the $1MM mark unless he picks things up offensively. McCarron and Sherwood have bounced between the NHL and the minors in recent years and are likely heading for contracts at or near the minimum again.

Fabbro was once viewed as a future top-four piece but his average ice time is down considerably this season and is fifth among Nashville defenders. A $2.4MM qualifying offer with arbitration rights is a bit on the high side for a fifth blueliner and if he doesn’t recover from his slow start, he could be a candidate for a change of scenery. If he rebounds and gets back to the 19-minute ATOI mark, a small raise to the $3MM range could be doable. Borowiecki is best utilized as a seventh defender at this point of his career and players like that aren’t likely to surpass $1MM on their contracts. If he sticks around next year, it’ll be at a similar price point. Carrier has worked his way into a regular role and logged nearly 21 minutes a game last season. With one year of RFA eligibility remaining, the Preds will likely want to work out a multi-year deal that could push his cost into the $3MM range.

Lankinen is another free agent signing that is looking to rebuild his value after a tough year in Chicago. A bounce-back year could make him one of the more intriguing UFAs next summer as he’ll only be 28. A strong showing might be enough to push him closer to the $2.5MM AAV range on a multi-year deal.

Signed Through 2023-24

F Nino Niederreiter ($4MM, UFA)
F Eeli Tolvanen ($1.45MM, RFA)
F Yakov Trenin ($1.7MM, UFA)

Niederreiter’s first trip through unrestricted free agency wasn’t as successful as he likely hoped as he had to settle for a pay cut. The market for secondary wingers isn’t as strong as it was a few years ago but in 2024, there should be a higher jump in the salary cap which could give him a chance to get closer to the $5MM mark if he’s productive with the Preds. Trenin only has had one full season under his belt but had 17 goals in that year which gave him a bit of leverage this summer. This is basically another bridge deal to see if he can repeat that type of production. If so, he could add another million in free agency but if not, he’s likely looking at a small dip. Tolvanen has shown flashes of upside over the last couple of seasons but hasn’t been able to put together a consistently productive season yet. If he can get to the 20-goal mark and cement himself as part of Nashville’s future core, he could more than double this contract. If not, his last RFA year should be closer to $2MM.

Signed Through 2024-25

F Mikael Granlund ($5MM, UFA)
F Ryan Johansen ($8MM, UFA)
G Juuse Saros ($5MM, UFA)

Johansen had some tough seasons but last year was arguably his best, at least in his time with the Predators. He still didn’t put up top-line production but he played a big role in Nashville having two strong scoring lines. He’ll be 33 when this deal is up and at this point, it still seems safe to forecast a dip in his salary, even if he remains around the 60-point mark. Granlund had by far his best season with Nashville last year and is off to a similar start this year. He doesn’t score very often anymore but as an all-situations veteran that is spending more time at center than he used to, he’s filling an important role. He’ll also be 33 when this contract is up and if he’s still logging 20 minutes a night, he could get a little more at that time as long as his production doesn’t go back to what it was a couple of years ago.

Saros has certainly established himself as a quality starter after playing more than 40 games for the first time last season. He’s undersized which scares a lot of teams off but if he has three more seasons like last year (one that saw him finish third in Vezina Trophy voting), he should have a strong market that could push his AAV past the $7MM mark.

Signed Through 2025-26 Or Longer

F Matt Duchene ($8MM through 2025-26)
D Mattias Ekholm ($6.25MM through 2025-26)
F Filip Forsberg ($8.5MM through 2029-30)
D Roman Josi ($9.059MM through 2027-28)
D Jeremy Lauzon ($2MM through 2025-26)
D Ryan McDonagh ($6.75MM through 2025-26)
F Colton Sissons ($2.857MM through 2025-26)

Forsberg’s contract was a particularly interesting one to follow last summer. While there was no doubt of a mutual desire to work out a long-term agreement, what complicated things was that he went out and had a career year. In doing so, the asking price certainly went up compared to what it was the year before when talks stalled and it took until close to the last minute to get this deal done. It’s one that might not age particularly well – especially if his output drops closer to the mid-20s where it has been for most of his career – but it was a contract that the Predators couldn’t afford not to do if they wanted to keep themselves in the playoff picture in the short term.

Duchene had certainly underwhelmed in his first two seasons in Nashville. However, he went out and had a career year last season and is off to a pretty good start this year as well. Last season, he produced at the rate of a number one center so while there are justifiably some doubts as to if that can be sustained, he lived up to his deal in 2021-22. Sissons is a quality checking center but production has been an issue for him as he has only reached ten goals once in his first eight years. This is a bit of an overpayment on that end but the fact he can win draws and kill penalties allows the Preds to get a decent return on this deal.

Josi had always been an above-average offensive defender but last season, he took that to another level, leading all NHL blueliners in scoring with a whopping 96 points. Considering he makes a couple million less than the top-paid defenders, he provided some surplus value even with the contract being the richest in team history. That type of output isn’t sustainable but he has several years of being a number one defender ahead of him so this deal shouldn’t be a concern for a long time. McDonagh was brought in this summer after Tampa Bay decided to part with him to help solve their salary cap challenges. His days of being on the top pairing are long gone but he’s still a capable second-pairing player. That could change in a couple of years but for now, they’ll get reasonable value.

Ekholm has never been a big point producer so his value is derived from his defensive play. Right now, that performance is quite strong so, in a vacuum, the Preds will be pleased with the return on his contract. That said, it’s a pricey top three with him, McDonagh, and Josi with two of those players not being offensive producers. Lauzon is an expensive depth option but if he can establish himself as a regular on the third pairing, this contract should hold up fine over time.

Buyouts

F Kyle Turris ($2MM through 2027-28)

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Best Value: Jeannot
Worst Value: Johansen

Looking Ahead

GM David Poile was able to add some quality veterans to this group over the summer and they’re in a situation where they should be able to bank some cap space to try to add an upgrade or two in the second half of the season. There aren’t many potential playoff squads that are in that good of shape when it comes to potential in-season additions.

However, there isn’t a lot of long-term flexibility either. They have over $70MM in commitments for 2023-24 already to just 13 players and Jeannot will add a pretty big number to that. They’ll either have to sign a bunch of minimum players to fill out their roster or they’ll have to try to free up a bit of money. Realistically, their next summer with any type of real spending potential might not be until 2025 so Nashville fans should get used to this core for the foreseeable future.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Minnesota Wild

October 28, 2022 at 9:00 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 1 Comment

Minnesota Wild

Current Cap Hit: $79,231,774 (under the $82.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

D Calen Addison (one year, $795K)
F Matt Boldy (one year, $880.8K)
F Marco Rossi (three years, $863K)

Potential Bonuses
Addison: $82.5K
Boldy: $600K
Rossi: $850K

Boldy didn’t play a full season last year but if he had, he might have had a shot at the Calder Trophy. He has very quickly established himself as a legitimate top-six forward and has been on the front line for good chunks of this season early on. He’s the type of player that GM Bill Guerin would love to sign long-term but fitting that in could be difficult. If Boldy produces at a similar pace as last year over a full season, a bridge deal for him could be in the $4MM range. Rossi is just getting his NHL career started but is being eased in slowly so it’s unlikely that he’ll hit any of his ‘A’ bonuses this season.

Addison has shown some upside in limited NHL action and is off to a nice start this year as he looks to establish himself as a full-time regular. If he can do that, he’ll have a good chance of hitting most of his games played bonuses but with a limited track record and Minnesota’s cap situation next summer, he’s almost certainly heading for a bridge deal. A decent season offensively could have that contract in the $2MM range.

Signed Through 2022-23, Non-Entry-Level

F Brandon Duhaime ($750K, RFA)
D Matt Dumba ($6MM, UFA)
F Frederick Gaudreau ($1.2MM, UFA)
G Filip Gustavsson ($787.5K, RFA)
F Tyson Jost ($2MM, RFA)
F Sam Steel ($825K, RFA)

Expectations for Jost have been high since he was drafted 10th overall back in 2016 but he hasn’t been able to live up to them. Last season, Colorado decided to move on from him but Jost hasn’t been much better with the Wild. Owed a $2.25MM qualifying offer, Jost will need to come close to his career high in points (26) if he wants a shot at being tendered. Gaudreau has been a nice example of perseverance paying off as he became a full-fledged regular for the first time last season at 28. He is coming off a career year offensively and even if he comes up a little short of the 44 points he had, he’s in a position to potentially double his price tag next summer. Steel had a pretty soft market this summer after being non-tendered by Anaheim but is still controllable for two more years through arbitration. It’s possible that he could be viewed as a replacement for Jost if he’s willing to stay around this price point. Duhaime provided some depth scoring with plenty of hits last season which is a combo that typically looks good in arbitration. Doubling his AAV is achievable if he puts up around 20 points this season.

Dumba’s future with Minnesota has been in question for several years now. First, there was speculation that he wouldn’t be able to reach a new contract but he did. Then, he was supposed to go to Seattle in expansion but the Wild found a way to protect him. Now, the question is can they afford to keep him? He’ll be 29 next season and hasn’t been able to come close to the 50 points he put up in 2017-18. The lower point total I think actually works in Minnesota’s favor if they want to try to re-sign him; between that and his age, his next contract shouldn’t check in too much higher than this one. Knowing the cap is going to go up in the not-too-distant future, there’s a path to extending this partnership if both sides are interested.

Gustavsson came over in an offseason trade from Ottawa and has yet to establish himself as a full-time backup. He’ll get that chance this season but chances are that his playing time will be limited enough that a multi-year agreement will be hard to come by. If he does well, a one-year deal in the $1.5MM range that buys both sides more time to evaluate would be a reasonable outcome.

Signed Through 2023-24

F Connor Dewar ($800K, RFA)
G Marc-Andre Fleury ($3.5MM, UFA)
F Marcus Foligno ($3.1MM, UFA)
D Alex Goligoski ($2MM, UFA)
F Ryan Hartman ($1.7MM, UFA)
F Mats Zuccarello ($6MM, UFA)

Zuccarello had a career year last season and is off to an even better start this year as he is starting to make his cap hit look like a bargain. However, he’ll be 37 when this contract is up which won’t help his market value. If he stays around the 60-point mark, he could land a couple of years around this price tag but a big increase isn’t likely. Foligno has put up a particularly high shooting percentage in the last two years but even factoring in some regression, he can be counted on for third-line production, strong defensive play, and lots of physicality. He’ll be 33 when his next contract starts and a three-year deal could push him past the $4MM mark if he can hang around the 30-point plateau.

One player that appears to be well on his way toward a significant raise is Hartman. After bouncing around early in his career, he has secured a full-time role in the top six with the Wild and is doing so as a center which only helps his value. The market for second-line centers is well over $6MM and if Hartman has a couple more seasons like last year, that could certainly be attainable for him. As for Dewar, he’s trying to establish himself as a regular but if he continues with a limited role, he’s someone that shouldn’t get a whole lot more than his qualifying offer which checks in just below $900K.

Goligoski took a high-priced one-year deal to return home last season and then accepted this much cheaper two-year contract to stay there. He is more of a depth defender at this point and considering he’ll be 39 just days after this agreement expires, there’s a good chance that this is his last deal.

There were some questions about whether or not Fleury would want to stick around with the Wild after joining them late last season but then accepted this deal, one that gives Minnesota a veteran starter for the price of a high-end backup. He’ll be 39 when this contract is up and it’s difficult to see him signing another one after this.

Signed Through 2024-25

F Jordan Greenway ($3MM, UFA)
D Jon Merrill ($1.2MM, UFA)
D Jacob Middleton ($2.45MM, UFA)

Greenway has shown some signs of blossoming into an impact power forward but has struggled with consistency and staying healthy. If he’s able to turn that around and become a 20-goal player, he could see his price tag jump past the $5MM mark in 2025. Even if he hovers around the 30-point mark, a raise is almost certain with how sought-after physical wingers that can provide some secondary scoring are.

Middleton was brought in to help strengthen the depth of the back end after a breakout season last year that saw him become a regular for the first time at 26. That limited track record allowed Guerin to work out an extension that gave Middleton some stability while still being at a below-market rate for someone playing in the top four. Three more seasons with a similar performance to last year will make his market a lot stronger next time around when he could add more than a million to his current cost. Merrill didn’t generate much interest in his last two trips through free agency so he understandably jumped at a three-year extension offer last January. For a depth defender, it’s a fair cost but it’s unlikely he’ll land much more than that three years from now.

Signed Through 2025-26 Or Longer

D Jonas Brodin ($6MM through 2027-28)
F Joel Eriksson Ek ($5.25MM through 2028-29)
F Kirill Kaprizov ($9MM through 2025-26)
D Jared Spurgeon ($7.575MM through 2026-27)

There has been plenty of uncertainty with Kaprizov stemming first from when would he first sign to even this summer when getting back to Minnesota proved to be difficult. He’s a franchise forward and one of the dynamic talents in the league. If he stays on his current trajectory, he’ll be 29 when he hits the open market for the first time and could have a viable chance to set a record-breaking contract for a winger in free agency. Eriksson Ek’s deal carried some risk in that he only had one season with more than ten goals at the time he signed it but he has become a legitimate two-way center that can play heavy minutes. He may not be a true number one middleman but even as a second liner, this deal looks like a team-friendly one.

Spurgeon has been a high-impact defender for several years now and should be for a few more seasons at least. The last year or two could be a bit high-priced but not by much. It wouldn’t be surprising if this price point is the highest they’re willing to go on a Dumba extension to ensure that the captain is the highest-paid at his position. Brodin isn’t going to score much but is a strong shutdown defender. This cost is a bit high at the moment for that type of role but as the cap increases over the next few years, it will look a bit better even if his ice time starts to dip.

Buyouts

F Zach Parise ($6.372MM in 2022-23, $7.372MM in 2023-24 and 2024-25, $833K from 2025-26 through 2027-28)
D Ryan Suter ($6.372MM in 2022-23, $7.372MM in 2023-24 and 2024-25, $833K from 2025-26 through 2027-28)

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Best Value: Hartman
Worst Value: Brodin

Looking Ahead

To Guerin’s credit, there really aren’t any bad contracts on the books right now which has helped them stay competitive even with more than $12MM in dead money. They’re actually very well-positioned to add at the deadline at a time when many other buyers won’t have cap flexibility. They could be a team to watch for on the rental market as a result.

Next summer could be tricky with Dumba and Boldy needing new deals and they’re certainly hoping that the cap goes up by more than the $1MM projection. There’s a way to get them both done but they’ll be filling out their roster with some more players at or near the minimum if they do so. The following summer will see some more flexibility open up but with a top-six center to re-sign or replace plus finding another starter. Minnesota should enjoy the bit of wiggle room they have now as things will get even tighter in the near future.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Dallas Stars

October 26, 2022 at 9:01 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose Leave a Comment

Dallas Stars

Current Cap Hit: $82,358,333 (under the $82.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Ty Dellandrea (one year, $863K)
F Wyatt Johnston (three years, $894K)
D Nils Lundkvist (two years, $925K)
F Jacob Peterson (one year, $842.5K)

Potential Bonuses
Dellandrea: $537.5K
Lundkvist: $850K
Peterson: $82.5K
Total: $1.47MM

Johnston cracked the opening roster out of training camp and a decision on whether or not to burn the first year of his contract is fast approaching. So far, he has played well enough to stick around so his deal should stay on the books into next week when he passes the nine-game mark. Dellandrea is in a regular role this year after spending all of last season in the minors. He’s still a likely candidate to land a bridge deal and unless his production increases, he’s unlikely to hit his ‘A’ bonuses. Peterson, meanwhile, was a regular for most of last year but has hardly played this season which puts him in short-term bridge territory as well. His bonuses are games played-based and it’s unlikely he’ll max out on those.

Dallas paid a high price to land Lundkvist, sending a first-rounder in 2023 along with a 2025 conditional selection to land him from the Rangers. If he can lock down a regular role and be productive, he’s someone that could bypass a bridge deal while hitting some of his ‘A’ bonuses this season. That said, with some of the big-ticket contracts on the horizon, the Stars might have to go the bridge route with Lundkvist as well.

Signed Through 2022-23, Non-Entry-Level

F Luke Glendening ($1.5MM, UFA)
F Denis Gurianov ($2.9MM, RFA)
D Joel Hanley ($750K, UFA)
F Roope Hintz ($3.15MM, RFA)
G Anton Khudobin ($3.33MM, UFA)
F Joel Kiviranta ($1.05MM, UFA)
F Joe Pavelski ($5.5MM, UFA)

Potential Bonuses
Pavelski: $500K

Pavelski surprisingly had a career year last season at the age of 37, allowing him to extend his stay with the Stars. He maxes out on the games played bonuses at 50 but adding those achievable incentives gives Dallas some flexibility to roll those over to next year if needed. As long as he continues to produce on their top line, he should have a strong market next July if he decides to test the open market. Hintz is one of the big-ticket contracts on the horizon. This is the final year of his bridge deal and he’ll be a year away from UFA eligibility at that time. Another 70-point performance should push that asking price past the $7MM mark if not higher.

Gurianov has been hit or miss throughout his career to the point where it looked like it would be questionable for him to be qualified at $2.9MM. They found a way to make it work this year but if he has another season like the last few, he’s a luxury they likely won’t be able to afford. He has already been scratched once this year which isn’t a good sign. Glendening continues to be an elite player at the faceoff dot which will once again generate some strong interest on the market. It won’t be at the highest of salaries – something in the $1.5MM range might be his ceiling – but he should have several suitors to choose from if he doesn’t re-sign. Kiviranta hasn’t been able to find his scoring form from the bubble that landed him this deal although he’s at least holding down a regular spot in the lineup. That could help land him a small raise next summer but nothing substantial.

Hanley has been an ideal seventh defender for Dallas in recent years, someone that can cover minutes where necessary even after long stretches in the press box and is willing to play for the minimum. They’ll need a seventh defender at that price tag moving forward and it very well could be him.

Khudobin is in the minors but still is on the books directly for more than $2.2MM. At this point, they’re hoping for an injury to pop up somewhere where they can offload most of the deal. Meanwhile, he’ll be 37 next season. A one-year deal around the $1MM range is about where his value would be right now.

Signed Through 2023-24

D Jani Hakanpaa ($1.5MM, UFA)
D Colin Miller ($1.85MM, UFA)
G Scott Wedgewood ($1MM, UFA)

Miller struggled the last four seasons but his two before that showed some legitimate offensive upside which helped him land this contract. But if he struggles to produce on his deal, he’s going to have a hard time landing more than this on his next deal; if anything, his value probably would go down in that situation. Hakanpaa has shown that he’s capable of logging a regular role while being one of the most prolific hitters in this league. He didn’t have much of a track record when he hit free agency in 2021 but he will this time around. If he keeps up this type of performance, he could add a million on his next deal in a contract that would be similar to Radko Gudas.

Wedgewood opted to not test free agency to get some long-desired stability. He has bounced around in recent years, often spending time as a third-stringer. If he can hold his own as a full-time backup, he could have a chance to double this price tag in 2024.

Signed Through 2024-25

F Jamie Benn ($9.5MM, UFA)
F Radek Faksa ($3.25MM, UFA)
D Esa Lindell ($5.8MM, UFA)
G Jake Oettinger ($4MM, RFA)
D Ryan Suter ($3.65MM, UFA)

Benn’s contract has been a negative-value one from the moment it was signed. He’s still a capable NHL player but he’s better off being on the third line in an ideal situation. The typical going rate for that role is about a third of this cost. A few years ago, Faksa looked to be on his way to being a quality two-way center but over the last couple of seasons, his scoring has fallen off completely. If he can get back to the 30-point mark routinely over the next few years, he could get another deal around this price point. Otherwise, his price tag will be coming down.

Lindell has been a fixture on the top pairing for several years now although his usage is down in the early going this season. That stretch aside, he’ll be 31 when this contract is up and if he gets back to being a 22-minute or more player that can chip in with some secondary scoring, he could land a small raise on a long-term (six or seven-year) deal. Suter surprised some by getting four years from the Stars last summer and while he’s logging 23 minutes a night now, that will drop by the end of the contract. If he decides to stick around after this pact, it’ll almost certainly be a one-year agreement.

Oettinger’s contract was one of the more intriguing RFA ones that were signed this summer. With barely one season’s worth of games under his belt and no arbitration rights, his contract was going to be somewhat of a market-setter. This bridge contract was the obvious outcome (especially with their cap situation) and it’s one that sets up Oettinger nicely. He’ll be owed a $4.8MM qualifying offer and will have arbitration rights at that time. If he remains the starter for this time (a very likely scenario) and the salary cap is starting to go up by then (also a very likely scenario), Oettinger should be in a position to command at least $7MM on a max-term agreement for his next contract.

Signed Through 2025-26 Or Longer

D Miro Heiskanen ($8.45MM through 2028-29)
F Mason Marchment ($4.5MM through 2025-26)
F Jason Robertson ($7.75MM through 2025-26, RFA)
F Tyler Seguin ($9.85MM through 2026-27)

Seguin’s deal is another one that looked bad the moment it was signed and it certainly hasn’t aged well. He can at least still hold down a spot on the second line which gives him a bit more short-term value than Benn although those last couple of years will certainly be burdensome. Robertson received a rare four-year bridge that sets him up well when he’ll be owed a $9.3MM qualifying offer with arbitration rights in 2026. A double-digit AAV should be within his grasp at that time as long as he remains a point-per-game top-liner. Marchment’s deal carries some risk with his limited track record although the early returns are promising. If he legitimately is a top-six power forward, he could land an extra million or so on his next deal as he’ll only be 31 when he returns to the open market.

Heiskanen bypassed the bridge deal with this contract which briefly was the richest handed to a defender coming off his entry-level pact in NHL history. (That has since been passed by Cale Makar and Adam Fox.) It’s a contract that gives Dallas a legitimate top defender at a rate that’s below what the highest-paid blueliners are getting now but it also positions Heiskanen to hit the open market at the age of 30 where he could still command a max-term agreement, potentially in the $10MM range if all goes well.

Buyouts

None

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Best Value: Hintz
Worst Value: Benn

Looking Ahead

As long as Dallas doesn’t have too many injuries, they’ll be okay from a cap perspective. They won’t bank much space but they can avoid being in LTIR which would give them a chance to absorb some bonuses on this year’s cap instead of next season. However, a couple of short-term injuries could have them icing a lineup that’s missing a player to get the short-term cap-exempt recall. They’re hardly the only team in that situation though.

Looking ahead, Hintz will be the top priority for GM Jim Nill and could go a long way in determining if they can afford Pavelski for another season so it wouldn’t be shocking to see them push to get that done sooner than later. With over $62MM committed already though, it’d be a tight fit.

There’s enough secondary money coming off the books over the next couple of seasons to give them at least a bit of flexibility but a lot of that money will be earmarked for raises for Oettinger and Robertson when their deals expire. Dallas doesn’t have the cleanest cap situation in the league by any stretch but it’s at least manageable over the next few years.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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