Salary Cap Deep Dive: Minnesota Wild

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation for the 2022-23 season and beyond.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Minnesota Wild

Current Cap Hit: $79,231,774 (under the $82.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

D Calen Addison (one year, $795K)
F Matt Boldy (one year, $880.8K)
F Marco Rossi (three years, $863K)

Potential Bonuses
Addison: $82.5K
Boldy: $600K
Rossi: $850K

Boldy didn’t play a full season last year but if he had, he might have had a shot at the Calder Trophy.  He has very quickly established himself as a legitimate top-six forward and has been on the front line for good chunks of this season early on.  He’s the type of player that GM Bill Guerin would love to sign long-term but fitting that in could be difficult.  If Boldy produces at a similar pace as last year over a full season, a bridge deal for him could be in the $4MM range.  Rossi is just getting his NHL career started but is being eased in slowly so it’s unlikely that he’ll hit any of his ‘A’ bonuses this season.

Addison has shown some upside in limited NHL action and is off to a nice start this year as he looks to establish himself as a full-time regular.  If he can do that, he’ll have a good chance of hitting most of his games played bonuses but with a limited track record and Minnesota’s cap situation next summer, he’s almost certainly heading for a bridge deal.  A decent season offensively could have that contract in the $2MM range.

Signed Through 2022-23, Non-Entry-Level

F Brandon Duhaime ($750K, RFA)
D Matt Dumba ($6MM, UFA)
F Frederick Gaudreau ($1.2MM, UFA)
G Filip Gustavsson ($787.5K, RFA)
F Tyson Jost ($2MM, RFA)
F Sam Steel ($825K, RFA)

Expectations for Jost have been high since he was drafted 10th overall back in 2016 but he hasn’t been able to live up to them.  Last season, Colorado decided to move on from him but Jost hasn’t been much better with the Wild.  Owed a $2.25MM qualifying offer, Jost will need to come close to his career high in points (26) if he wants a shot at being tendered.  Gaudreau has been a nice example of perseverance paying off as he became a full-fledged regular for the first time last season at 28.  He is coming off a career year offensively and even if he comes up a little short of the 44 points he had, he’s in a position to potentially double his price tag next summer.  Steel had a pretty soft market this summer after being non-tendered by Anaheim but is still controllable for two more years through arbitration.  It’s possible that he could be viewed as a replacement for Jost if he’s willing to stay around this price point.  Duhaime provided some depth scoring with plenty of hits last season which is a combo that typically looks good in arbitration.  Doubling his AAV is achievable if he puts up around 20 points this season.

Dumba’s future with Minnesota has been in question for several years now.  First, there was speculation that he wouldn’t be able to reach a new contract but he did.  Then, he was supposed to go to Seattle in expansion but the Wild found a way to protect him.  Now, the question is can they afford to keep him?  He’ll be 29 next season and hasn’t been able to come close to the 50 points he put up in 2017-18.  The lower point total I think actually works in Minnesota’s favor if they want to try to re-sign him; between that and his age, his next contract shouldn’t check in too much higher than this one.  Knowing the cap is going to go up in the not-too-distant future, there’s a path to extending this partnership if both sides are interested.

Gustavsson came over in an offseason trade from Ottawa and has yet to establish himself as a full-time backup.  He’ll get that chance this season but chances are that his playing time will be limited enough that a multi-year agreement will be hard to come by.  If he does well, a one-year deal in the $1.5MM range that buys both sides more time to evaluate would be a reasonable outcome.

Signed Through 2023-24

F Connor Dewar ($800K, RFA)
G Marc-Andre Fleury ($3.5MM, UFA)
F Marcus Foligno ($3.1MM, UFA)
D Alex Goligoski ($2MM, UFA)
F Ryan Hartman ($1.7MM, UFA)
F Mats Zuccarello ($6MM, UFA)

Zuccarello had a career year last season and is off to an even better start this year as he is starting to make his cap hit look like a bargain.  However, he’ll be 37 when this contract is up which won’t help his market value.  If he stays around the 60-point mark, he could land a couple of years around this price tag but a big increase isn’t likely.  Foligno has put up a particularly high shooting percentage in the last two years but even factoring in some regression, he can be counted on for third-line production, strong defensive play, and lots of physicality.  He’ll be 33 when his next contract starts and a three-year deal could push him past the $4MM mark if he can hang around the 30-point plateau.

One player that appears to be well on his way toward a significant raise is Hartman.  After bouncing around early in his career, he has secured a full-time role in the top six with the Wild and is doing so as a center which only helps his value.  The market for second-line centers is well over $6MM and if Hartman has a couple more seasons like last year, that could certainly be attainable for him.  As for Dewar, he’s trying to establish himself as a regular but if he continues with a limited role, he’s someone that shouldn’t get a whole lot more than his qualifying offer which checks in just below $900K.

Goligoski took a high-priced one-year deal to return home last season and then accepted this much cheaper two-year contract to stay there.  He is more of a depth defender at this point and considering he’ll be 39 just days after this agreement expires, there’s a good chance that this is his last deal.

There were some questions about whether or not Fleury would want to stick around with the Wild after joining them late last season but then accepted this deal, one that gives Minnesota a veteran starter for the price of a high-end backup.  He’ll be 39 when this contract is up and it’s difficult to see him signing another one after this.

Signed Through 2024-25

F Jordan Greenway ($3MM, UFA)
D Jon Merrill ($1.2MM, UFA)
D Jacob Middleton ($2.45MM, UFA)

Greenway has shown some signs of blossoming into an impact power forward but has struggled with consistency and staying healthy.  If he’s able to turn that around and become a 20-goal player, he could see his price tag jump past the $5MM mark in 2025.  Even if he hovers around the 30-point mark, a raise is almost certain with how sought-after physical wingers that can provide some secondary scoring are.

Middleton was brought in to help strengthen the depth of the back end after a breakout season last year that saw him become a regular for the first time at 26.  That limited track record allowed Guerin to work out an extension that gave Middleton some stability while still being at a below-market rate for someone playing in the top four.  Three more seasons with a similar performance to last year will make his market a lot stronger next time around when he could add more than a million to his current cost.  Merrill didn’t generate much interest in his last two trips through free agency so he understandably jumped at a three-year extension offer last January.  For a depth defender, it’s a fair cost but it’s unlikely he’ll land much more than that three years from now.

Signed Through 2025-26 Or Longer

D Jonas Brodin ($6MM through 2027-28)
F Joel Eriksson Ek ($5.25MM through 2028-29)
F Kirill Kaprizov ($9MM through 2025-26)
D Jared Spurgeon ($7.575MM through 2026-27)

There has been plenty of uncertainty with Kaprizov stemming first from when would he first sign to even this summer when getting back to Minnesota proved to be difficult.  He’s a franchise forward and one of the dynamic talents in the league.  If he stays on his current trajectory, he’ll be 29 when he hits the open market for the first time and could have a viable chance to set a record-breaking contract for a winger in free agency.  Eriksson Ek’s deal carried some risk in that he only had one season with more than ten goals at the time he signed it but he has become a legitimate two-way center that can play heavy minutes.  He may not be a true number one middleman but even as a second liner, this deal looks like a team-friendly one.

Spurgeon has been a high-impact defender for several years now and should be for a few more seasons at least.  The last year or two could be a bit high-priced but not by much.  It wouldn’t be surprising if this price point is the highest they’re willing to go on a Dumba extension to ensure that the captain is the highest-paid at his position.  Brodin isn’t going to score much but is a strong shutdown defender.  This cost is a bit high at the moment for that type of role but as the cap increases over the next few years, it will look a bit better even if his ice time starts to dip.

Buyouts

F Zach Parise ($6.372MM in 2022-23, $7.372MM in 2023-24 and 2024-25, $833K from 2025-26 through 2027-28)
D Ryan Suter ($6.372MM in 2022-23, $7.372MM in 2023-24 and 2024-25, $833K from 2025-26 through 2027-28)

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Best Value: Hartman
Worst Value: Brodin

Looking Ahead

To Guerin’s credit, there really aren’t any bad contracts on the books right now which has helped them stay competitive even with more than $12MM in dead money.  They’re actually very well-positioned to add at the deadline at a time when many other buyers won’t have cap flexibility.  They could be a team to watch for on the rental market as a result.

Next summer could be tricky with Dumba and Boldy needing new deals and they’re certainly hoping that the cap goes up by more than the $1MM projection.  There’s a way to get them both done but they’ll be filling out their roster with some more players at or near the minimum if they do so.  The following summer will see some more flexibility open up but with a top-six center to re-sign or replace plus finding another starter.  Minnesota should enjoy the bit of wiggle room they have now as things will get even tighter in the near future.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.