PHR Mailbag

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Tampa Bay’s dominance, Phil Housley’s future in Buffalo, the Adam Fox situation, the upcoming draft, Boston’s injury replacement, the Rangers, and teams that could be primed to shake things up with an early postseason exit.

sovietcanuckistanian: Does anybody in the East have a legit shot at beating the buzz saw that seems to be Tampa? I know it’s the playoffs/anything can happen and the track record of Presidents’ Trophy winners winning it all is spotty, but it’s hard to want to bet against them given everyone else in the East (or West it would seem). Thanks in advance.

I certainly wouldn’t want to bet against the Lightning but I could see Boston and Toronto legitimately having a shot from their own division.  The Bruins are a playoff-tested team and their top line is certainly a dominant one.  They’re also getting strong goaltending that’s capable of stealing a game or two.  With a decent back end, that will give them a chance.

If Toronto gets through that opening series, they certainly have the offensive firepower and depth to match up well.  Like Tampa, they’re also a pretty quick team.  Their defense concerns me but it’d be tough to rule the Maple Leafs out of a high-scoring series.

From the Metropolitan Division, Washington beat them last year and the core is largely the same this time around.  If they did it once, they could do it twice.

Considering how dominant Tampa Bay has been this season, they are more than deservedly the favorites no matter which matchups they wind up with.  That said, it’s far from a given that they make it through as there are a few teams that are capable of giving them a tough series at the very least.

ThePriceWasRight: Do you think between a poor 1st season and collapse in the 2nd half this season that Housley is shown the door?

I think it’s a lot more of an option now than it was a month ago given how awful they’ve been but I think Buffalo may be inclined to give him one more look for next season.  It has been a bit of a revolving door behind the bench in recent years and at some point, they have to show a bit of patience, don’t they?

Despite their poor play as of late, there have been some positives this season for sure, especially up front.  Jack Eichel and Sam Reinhart are having career years while Jeff Skinner was one of the elite scorers for most of the season before tailing off as of late.  Rasmus Dahlin has developed nicely in his rookie year as well.  Several core young players developing and showing improvement has to work in his favor.

Yes, they’ve had some difficulty keeping the puck out of their own net but part of the blame for that has to lie with GM Jason Botterill.  Their goalie tandem had all sorts of question marks coming into the season and they still do while their back end isn’t the deepest either.  That’s not to absolve Housley entirely but it’s not all on him either.

If it was up to me, I’d give him another look next season with what should be a bolstered group as they have plenty of cap space to work with this summer.  However, if they start slow in 2019-20, then the time will be right to make a change.

mikedickinson: Adam Fox is reported to be going back to Harvard for his senior year. He was the key to the Calgary/Carolina deal from the Canes side. Yes, we are deep on defense, but you can’t just lose a young stud like that. Think the Canes will try to sign him as a free agent?

If he makes it to free agency in August of 2020, they’d surely try to sign him.  Why wouldn’t they?  Nashville went after Jimmy Vesey even after he made it clear that he was testing the market and Carolina would certainly do the same in this situation.

To me, the bigger question is whether or not he’d be property of the Hurricanes by the time we get to that point.  If he indicates to the team in the coming days (or even months) that he’s going to play it out and go to the open market, I could see Carolina trying to move his rights for a conditional draft pick.  If there are certain teams he’s amenable to signing with, dealing him this summer and getting something for him (or at least getting the potential to get something) may be the right move for them.

tigers22: After Hughes and Kakko who are the next best prospects? How many goalie prospects could be drafted in the first round?

Lethbridge center Dylan Cozens has been a near-lock to be a top-five pick since before the season started.  He took a big jump forward offensively this season and is a strong skater for his size.  Russian winger Vasili Podkolzin could be a top-line winger and has moved up to the number three spot in many rankings.  However, there are some questions as to his willingness to cross the pond which could hurt his stock a little bit.  While he won’t go with this group, winger Cole Caufield has a whopping 52 goals in 54 games with the US NTDP.  His lack of size will cause him to fall but in terms of raw offensive upside, he’s among the best in this draft class.

In terms of goalies going in the first round, there might actually be one for a change.  (There have only been two since 2013.)  Spencer Knight of the US NTDP is the consensus pick to buck the trend.  There are a lot of teams that firmly believe in not picking a goalie this high but Knight is viewed as one of the better American netminders in recent years so a team towards the back of the round (or with multiple first-round picks) could certainly

Connorsoxfan: Is Kuhlman an adequate replacement for Kuraly? I saw he scored the other night after picking off a pass but that’s the only clip I’ve seen of him so far. Should I be worried about that line against Toronto come playoff time?

While losing Sean Kuraly hurts, Karson Kuhlman should be a capable replacement if he is indeed in for the first round.  The Maple Leafs are a team that has a fair bit of firepower in their bottom six group so having another skilled forward like Kuhlman in wouldn’t necessarily be a bad thing.

The bigger concern is not having Kuraly’s penalty killing ability against a Toronto power play that can be quite dominant when it gets going.  They’ve deployed Kuhlman in a limited PK role in the games he has played but Kuraly is the better fit in that role.

However, it could all be moot as with Marcus Johansson back in the lineup, there really isn’t a regular spot for Kuhlman at the moment.  If they do need to call on him against Toronto though, I think he’s a better fit against them than he would be against some other opponents.

acarneglia: Are the Rangers a few big signings away in FA from being contenders again? By big signings, I mean Karlsson and Panarin.

Well, any team that lands both Erik Karlsson and Artemi Panarin in free agency would likely be considered as contenders, at least to some degree.  I have a hard time thinking that the Rangers (or anyone) could get both of them and even if they did, I don’t think they’d really get back into contention right away.

With the youth movement the team is currently on, they will be counting on their young players to play big roles in the near future.  Adding over $20MM in financial commitments in this scenario would only up the pressure as they’d have to move out some of their mid-tier players to afford those two.

Are players like Filip Chytil and Lias Andersson ready to be impact forwards?  Can Anthony Deangelo and Libor Hajek be full-timers on the back end and be more than third pairing players?  If the answer isn’t yes, they’re probably not ready to be true contenders and contend with the likes of Tampa Bay, even with two star additions like that.

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The end of March is upon us and playoff scenarios are starting to become more and more clear. Teams like the Boston Bruins and Toronto Maple Leafs have a good idea what is coming in the postseason, and are trying to peak at the right moment. Meanwhile, the draft lottery is just around the corner and the Colorado Avalanche look like they’ll have the best odds despite currently sitting in a playoff spot in the Western Conference. The Los Angeles Kings and Detroit Red Wings meanwhile hope they can jump up a few spots and land their choice of Jack Hughes or Kaapo Kakko.

With the regular season coming to an end, it’s time to run another mailbag. We’ll be answering as many questions as we can this weekend. You can submit your query by using #PHRMailbag on Twitter or by leaving a comment down below.

If you missed our last mailbag, it came out in two parts given all the questions. First Brian tackled the Columbus Blue Jackets aggressive trade deadline and gave his thoughts on the playoff format, before digging into the upcoming negotiations with Erik Karlsson, Alex Pietrangelo and Brayden Schenn while taking a shot at the next Edmonton Oilers GM hire.

In this edition of the mailbag, the discussion focuses on the Rangers, Erik Karlsson’s future, the Blues, candidates for the GM role in Edmonton, value contracts, and who could be on the move from Chicago this summer.

acarneglia: Are the Rangers a lot closer than people think in regards to returning to relevancy? Take a look at the number of one-goal games they’ve played in.

CHRISJENJ: What are the Rangers offseason plans? Do you see them either signing or trading for a big-time player like Artemi Panarin?

The pain may be coming to an end sooner than later in New York if things go right.  They have a quality stable of prospects up front and between the pipes (the back end is coming along but still needs some work) and they’re going to have plenty of cap space.  I expect them to try to use it on the open market and go after some top talent.  If they succeed in doing so, they’ll be right back in the mix in the Metropolitan – not a contender right away but they’ll be in solid shape.

If they can’t land that big fish, I don’t expect them to turn around and try to trade for a big-ticket player instead.  One more year on this particular track wouldn’t be a terrible idea as their young forwards aren’t ready for major roles just yet.  Accordingly, why spend some of their extra young assets at that time?  If you can get the player for free, great.  If not, stick to the plan and continue to develop the youngsters.  That might not necessarily have them on the playoff path for 2019-20 but they are very much back on the path to relevancy.  One way or the other, they shouldn’t be near the basement next season.

kenleyfornia2: Will Erik Karlsson be one and done in San Jose?

Unless they really have concerns about his ability to stay healthy, I don’t think so.  With what they gave up in quantity, it’s hard to think that they were looking at him as a straight rental player.  I figured there was a good chance that they had the framework of a deal in place already and that something could have been coming once the trade deadline passed but clearly, that wasn’t the case.

San Jose has shown that they can win without Karlsson if they choose to allocate more of their money up front this summer; a long-term deal for him could push their back end spending towards the $35MM mark by the time they fill out the rest of their group.  That’s probably a bit too much but I still think he’ll be kept and veterans like Justin Braun and Brendan Dillon will be moved over the summer to lower their spending on defense for next season.

Paul Heyman: Do the Blues try and extend Alex Pietrangelo and Brayden Schenn this offseason seeing as they are eligible for free agency next year?

They’ll certainly try.  Most teams will look to lock up their core pending unrestricted free agents as soon as they’re eligible to in July.  Regardless of the situation a team is in, a top player locked up should be worth a lot more than he would be as a rental.  I expect GM Doug Armstrong will have cursory discussions with their agents leading up to the draft; even though new deals couldn’t be signed until July, they can talk beforehand.

The really interesting question will be what happens if they don’t sign right away?  St. Louis hasn’t shied away from shaking up their core and there were trade discussions involving both players earlier this season when things weren’t going well.  If Pietrangelo or Schenn (or both) show some hesitance in extending, I believe those trade discussions will resume.  We know Armstrong is comfortable taking a top player into his walk year without a new deal (such as Paul Stastny last season) but given that June is becoming the time to make bigger trades, it’s not crazy to think that one of those two could be moved if an early extension isn’t in the cards.

Zack35: Pretend you’re Oilers CEO Bob Nicholson. Who would you hire to be GM?

If one of the candidates is capable of building a time machine that can undo some of Peter Chiarelli’s deals that haven’t worked out, I’d go with that one.

In all seriousness, I think this would be a good fit for Mark Hunter.  While he hasn’t been a GM in the NHL before, he has four years of experience with Toronto and rose up the ranks there where he was the runner up to replace Lou Lamoriello.

However, that’s not the main reason I’d give him the nod.  I like his scouting and junior backgrounds and I’m Nicholson, those areas are a priority.  Edmonton is going to be cap-strapped for a long time so the ability to identify and bring in capable, cost-controlled youngsters will be paramount to their future success (or lack thereof).  Hunter’s track record of frequently finding quality young talent for OHL London helps him stand out amongst the crowd.

If Hunter isn’t interested, I’d likely turn my focus to Ron Hextall.  I liked what he did in Philadelphia in terms of slowly building up a base of young talent and let’s face it, that’s what the Oilers need to do.  If he wasn’t interested, I’d then look at Mike Futa in Los Angeles – he has a similar background in development and scouting to Hunter with more experience at the NHL level.

ThePriceWasRight: Who are your top three underpaid players (not counting rookie contracts)?

There are plenty of players in the $1MM – $4MM range that could easily qualify for this list as their level of play considerably outperforms their AAV.  Players like Andrei Vasilevskiy, Brendan Gallagher, Roman Josi, and Erik Gustafsson (who quietly is up to 50 points already) come to mind just to name a few.  Nikita Kucherov makes more than that but is vastly underpaid with his new deal only kicking in next season.  However, those other players will be in line for much richer deals in the next year or two so instead of looking at them, I’m going to focus instead on some top-end guys making mid-tier money that will be significantly underpaid for at least years to come.  To me, deals like these are the top value contracts in the league.

Dallas defenseman John Klingberg has emerged as a legitimate number one defenseman in the NHL.  He’s in the top-15 in the league in ice time per game and points per game by a blueliner (among qualifying players).  Players like this are getting over $8MM per year minimum on recently-signed contracts but Klingberg will only cost the Stars $4.25MM for three more years after this one.  A number one blueliner making number four money is a huge bargain for them.

Toronto’s Morgan Rielly is also in a similar situation.  He’s their undisputed top defender and is among the top point producers among NHL blueliners.  Brent Burns, the lone player ahead of him is at $8MM per year.  Erik Karlsson is close to him in terms of points per game and he’s widely expected to surpass the $10MM per year mark this summer.  John Carlson is also narrowly behind Rielly and also carries an $8MM cap hit.  Meanwhile, Rielly sits at $5MM for three more years after this one.  He’d be making a whole lot more if he was hitting free agency anytime soon.

Flyers center Sean Couturier looked like he’d be their second center of the future and signed a contract that was commensurate with that type of role.  Since then, he has emerged as a legitimate top liner and is on pace for his second straight season with at least 30 goals and 70 points while logging a little over 22 minutes a night.  There was talk earlier this season that discussions for an extension for Matt Duchene – likely the top UFA center available – was in the $8.5MM-plus range.  Couturier checks in at basically half of that ($4.333MM) for three years left after that one.

In terms of cost per point, these three aren’t among the leaders in that regard.  However, they’re all players that are significantly underpaid relative to their peers around the league and will be in that situation for quite a while yet.

@Jents71: What major Blackhawks piece is going to be traded away in the summer?

I don’t see GM Stan Bowman making any major subtractions to his roster this offseason.  In fact, I think they’ll be looking to add a big piece in free agency.  Panarin has been the speculative link given his previous time with Chicago but if they don’t add him, they’ll likely go after another big piece.  Their late-season run will likely make Bowman think that this core has one more season where they can make some noise so the goal will be adding instead of subtracting.

That said, one player I could see them looking to move is center Artem Anisimov.  He has been part of trade speculation for a while now but the emergence of Dylan Strome gives them someone that can legitimately step in and play behind Jonathan Toews down the middle.

With Alex DeBrincat and Strome in need of new contracts after next season, Chicago will want to free up a bit of money for those deals.  With a cap hit of $4.55MM through 2020-21, moving Anisimov would give them some funds to play with to lock up those youngsters and that type of money for a third line pivot is something the Blackhawks can’t really afford.  He has a full no-move clause but it wouldn’t be surprising to see Chicago ask him to waive it this offseason.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

The moves the Blue Jackets made at the trade deadline were the talk around the NHL and are discussed in this edition of the PHR Mailbag as well as Arizona’s recent run, the Seattle expansion draft, Boston’s lineup, Alexander Radulov’s benching, and the current postseason format.

As we’ve done with recent mailbags, questions not answered here will appear in our next mailbag next weekend.

sixfootnineballerina: What do you think the fallout would be like if the Blue Jackets suffer an early exit or miss the postseason entirely after giving up so many future assets and holding onto their pending UFAs?

First things first, I want to comment on GM Jarmo Kekalainen’s strategy in general.  I get the desire to go for it and really respect it, as bad of an idea as I think it was.  As a whole, what they gave up for Matt Duchene and Ryan Dzingel wasn’t over the top by any stretch.  But these moves aren’t going to vault them into Stanley Cup contention so at best, we’re talking about winning a couple of rounds.  I know they haven’t won a playoff series before so that’s worth more to them than most but at the same time, is making it through a couple of rounds going to magically entice Artemi Panarin to re-sign?  Probably not.

As for the fallout from an early exit or missing altogether, Kekalainen likely would be shown the door as would head coach John Tortorella if he isn’t gone already by the end of the year.  If they fall any further in the race, I have to think a late-season coaching change could be in the cards.  They’re all in so why take the cautious route now?

From a long-term perspective, I don’t think it changes their fortunes too drastically though.  Win or lose, they’re probably heading for a soft rebuild unless they wind up being big players in free agency which is something that simply hasn’t happened often in their history.  A good or bad showing probably isn’t changing the view of that team in the eyes of players around the league.  They’ve moved some of their top assets for this run so big offseason moves to replenish their NHL talents aren’t likely in the cards.  Either way, some tough times are probably ahead.

therealscyie: Despite being three points out of a playoff spot right now, do you think if the Coyotes make the playoffs, is it a possibility that Rick Tocchet could be considered for the Jack Adams award? Or is John Cooper and Barry Trotz so far ahead that the third nominee is gonna be Bill Peters?

Considering the injuries they’ve had (both in terms of quantity and the quality of players they’ve missed), he should be considered at the very least if they can get there.  Oddly enough, they’ve been better than they were when some of their players were healthy which is a testament to what Tocchet and his staff have done thus far.

That said, I think this is Trotz’s award to lose.  The Islanders were a popular pick to be in the basement in the Metropolitan Division after their offseason and instead, they find themselves battling for the top spot.  That has to make him the contender even though Cooper’s Lightning have been the class of the league all season long.  Peters will pick up a few votes so as well as Tocchet has done (and he deserves a lot of credit for their recent play), he’s probably not going to be in contention for the award.

pawtucket: What are the rules for the expansion draft – re games played to count towards the ‘needs protection’ list? I’m seeing all these signings from the NCAA and Europe and wondering what will happen if they burn a year this year and the expansion draft in 2 years…

We’re in uncharted waters here with this situation as the Vegas expansion situation didn’t have this long of a timeline to work with.  As a result, there seem to be more questions than answers at this point with some contradictory information out there and not many NHL staffers have spoken on the record so far.

However, earlier this year, Mathias Brunet of La Presse was able to shed some light on the situation after speaking with someone with Montreal’s front office.  While they were discussing Ryan Poehling’s situation in particular (Cale Makar is also in the same boat with regards to timing for signing age for waivers versus actual contract timing – 19 vs 20), it was noted that a player signing an ELC late this season could play ten games without being expansion-eligible.  It was also reported that there was an adjustment to the CBA in anticipation of the Seattle draft and while the specific change isn’t specified in that article, my inclination is that it is a proration of the 40-game rule that is used for the purposes of reaching an accrued season.  They did that back in 2012-13 (Exhibit 16, heading nine of the current CBA) so it’s not unprecedented.

For me, the concern is more with the younger college players than the upcoming college free agent market as even if those players were to become expansion-eligible, if a team wound up losing whoever they signed to Seattle, they’d probably call that a win at this point as it would mean the rest of their team is intact.  As for the European market, unaffiliated players signing to play now would need entry waivers so there shouldn’t be any activity on that front in the weeks to come and anyone that signs after the season would be exempt.

sovietcanuckistanian: Bruins fan here – when David Pastrnak comes back and assuming the Bruins are playing the kind of hockey they have been since he’s been out – do they reunite the ‘Perfection’ Line (to give teams more to plan for in playoffs) or do they try and spread the wealth a little better/more since they are doing well despite his not being around? Thanks in advance.

Boston finds themselves in a pretty good spot right now.  It’s pretty much certain that they know they’re facing Toronto in the first round barring one of those teams going into a very long losing streak (and even then they’d still probably be the two/three seeds).  That makes it the perfect time for trying things.

Everyone knows that when Boston’s top line is together, they’re really good.  Even if they’re apart for a few weeks upon Pastrnak’s return, the chemistry they’ve shown over the last few years is still going to be there if they need to reunite the trio for the postseason.  So what really is there to lose to put him on a different line?

The remaining games for the Bruins over the next month are basically glorified practices with so little at stake.  (Yes, there’s home ice advantage at play but Boston has some wiggle room at the moment.)  It’s the perfect time to see how Pastrnak fares away from his usual linemates in case they need to split the big line up during the playoffs to spread out the scoring.

@Habsfanaticfla: if a player like Radulov misses a team meeting and then sits out a game is he still paid for the game?

Teams can choose to suspend a player without pay for violation of team rules, conduct detrimental to the team, etc so that option is there although the player or the NHLPA could elect to grieve it if they wanted.  That’s not what happened earlier this week in the case of Radulov though.  The Dallas winger was simply made a healthy scratch which is the disciplinary method of choice for teams when it comes to missing or being late for a team meeting for a single instance.  Healthy scratches are still paid their full daily salary.

If it happens more frequently, that’s when a team may elect to do the suspension without pay or fine as that’s a higher step on the disciplinary ladder.  However, most of the time, the public embarrassment of being a healthy scratch for missing a meeting (or being late) is usually enough to curb the issue right then and there.

Mr. Mark: When is the league going to get rid of this ridiculous playoff format? Last year the top two teams in the league, Winnipeg and Nashville had to play in the second round and could happen again this year with Tampa and Boston or Toronto.

I don’t think there’s much appetite from the Board of Governors to make the change.  They discussed plenty at their recent meetings and the playoff format wasn’t among the big topics discussed.  This was largely put in place to reinstate some divisional rivalries and for all of the flaws this current system has (and pitting the top teams against each other early is right up there), it appears to be well on its way to doing just that.

The regular season can sometimes be a drag and under the old system, the divisions didn’t mean a whole lot.  Their hope is that with this system, the rivalries that will develop from frequent postseason matchups will create some better drama during those dog days.

Personally, I’d be pleased with bringing back the old system.  With only two divisions instead of three, there won’t be any instances anymore where a division winner from the weak division gets a higher seed like there was in the past.  Divisional success means something but so should finishing first.  The current system isn’t really rewarding that.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

The trade deadline is over and teams now have to complete the last quarter of the season with no outside help. That means plenty of action for young players on clubs outside the playoff race, and a test of depth for those grinding for a top seed. While the battle for the last few playoff spots rages, some fans will have turned their attention to the upcoming draft and free agency, excited for what to come. Will the big names moved at the deadline re-sign with their new teams? Or will the free agent market be littered with stars looking for big paychecks?

With the deadline behind us and the playoffs not too far away, it’s time to run another mailbag. We’ll be answering as many questions as we can this weekend. You can submit questions by using #PHRMailbag on Twitter or by leaving a comment down below.

If you missed our last mailbag, it came out in two parts given all the questions asked. First Brian tackled everything to do with the Metropolitan Division including predicting Pittsburgh’s movement of Tanner Pearson for some defense help and giving his thoughts on the Micheal Ferland situation. Next, he tackled the rest of the league in a lengthy mailbag that stretches from Erik Karlsson to Jonas Brodin.

Our latest mailbag before the trade deadline takes a look at some of the top rental players still available, what a trio of Atlantic Division teams will be looking to do, a discussion on the emphasis on long-term contracts and whether that trend may soon be changing, and much more.  These are the non-Metropolitan Division questions from our last call for mailbag questions two weeks ago.  For the Metro mailbag, click here.

ThePriceWasRight: Rumors are if he makes it, Calgary and Winnipeg interested in Stone. If either makes this trade are they the cream of the Western crop or does Calgary still have to address its goaltending?

I think Winnipeg is the top team in the West right now so adding Mark Stone would make them the top gun by that much more.  They have several strong wingers and adding a top liner like Stone would make an already potent offense that much stronger.

As for Calgary, getting Stone probably wouldn’t be enough to unseat Winnipeg as their goaltending is still somewhat shaky.  Unfortunately for them, that’s going to be tough to address.  I don’t think Columbus will move Sergei Bobrovsky and while Jimmy Howard would help, he’s not a high-end starter.  No one they’re going to get will be either which makes it hard to call them the top contender.

That said, I don’t think it should stop them from pursuing Stone.  Their attack is very top-heavy and adding Stone would give them a second line that’s capable of lighting the lamp with a lot more regularity.  If you can’t win the traditional way with good goaltending, loading up offensively and trying to win some high-scoring games isn’t a bad way to go.

@Hockeyprospect5: Who should the Flames try to acquire?

Though they won’t be able to land a top-notch starting goaltender, I still think they should look at adding some depth.  I like Keith Kinkaid for them.  I know he isn’t having a great year but he showed last season that he’s capable of getting hot and going on a big run.  That’s all they really need for the time being, someone that can either push one of David Rittich or Mike Smith or provide a short-term boost if he gets on a roll at the right time.

I can see them looking for winger depth as well.  I’d be a little surprised if Stone went there but I could see someone like Gustav Nyquist being of interest to them.  He may not be able to carry a line like Stone but he’s a good two-way player and could still log a lot of minutes for them.  (He’ll also cost a lot less than Stone will.)  They’ve been linked to Mats Zuccarello as of late as well and he’d be a nice addition for their second line.

pitmanrich: Why are top players so keen on 7/8 year contracts? Salary cap is unlikely to go down significantly and top money will always be there for quality players like Karlsson and Stone unless dramatic drop off in production surely no-trade clauses on 3/4 year deal would be better for them plus if the team goes bad quick like the Rangers did easier for them to leave for another contender.

Security means a lot and the players signing the max-term contracts are usually getting significant no-trade/no-move protection anyway (at least in their UFA-eligible years).  If a player is hitting the open market at 27, a max-term deal is going to take them pretty close to retirement.  Waiting three or four years and trying again is going to probably yield a lesser contract for most players.

Let’s look at Karlsson.  Previous speculation was that it’s going to take Drew Doughty money (eight years, $11MM per) to get a deal done.  Let’s give that to Karlsson but on a four-year pact.  That will allow him to hit unrestricted free agency again in July of 2023.  However, he’ll be 33 at that time with four more years of mileage on him.  By then, he probably won’t be as much of an elite skater either.  Even with a higher Upper Limit and a new CBA in place, I’m not sure he’d match $11MM on another deal let alone beat it.  The shorter-term deal probably hurts him.  Mark Stone is a couple of years younger so he’d have more of a chance but assuming he winds up around $9.5MM or more on his next deal, could he beat that four years from now?  I wouldn’t bet on it.

Now, when it comes to RFA players, you’re onto something.  Auston Matthews could have pushed for Connor McDavid money (or more) on an eight-year deal but took five years instead (and still wound up with a really high price tag).  He’ll be hitting unrestricted free agency in the prime of his career and as long as he stays healthy, it’s a fairly safe bet that he’ll be able to beat whatever the AAV could have been on an eight-year post-RFA deal so the shorter-term strategy will work for him.  I expect some of the other top RFAs this summer will pursue a similar route with that in mind and if teams need to compromise on the term to get an AAV more to their liking, they’ll do it.

The shift towards shorter deals is coming but it probably wouldn’t be with the players that are entering unrestricted free agency.  Those players will be opting for the security of one last big payday.

ThePriceWasRight: What do you see happening with Erik Karlsson? Sharks can now start negotiating but may want to focus on the season.

While there hasn’t been any information about any talks being held, I’m pretty sure that the Sharks have a pretty good idea of what it’s going to take to lock him up.  It’s likely that GM Doug Wilson has spoken with Craig Oster, Karlsson’s agent, to determine what the asking price is and the willingness on their end to sign an extension.

In the short-term, whatever that answer may be doesn’t really change much.  Even if for some reason Karlsson decided he wants to go to free agency, San Jose isn’t going to trade him.  They’re all in for this season and given what they paid for him, they’ll stick it out.  (Considering the clause that says they owe Ottawa another first rounder if he’s dealt back in the East, they wouldn’t run the risk of moving him and having that team flip him back in the East either.)

If I had to guess, I’d speculate that they probably are already pretty close to a contract if one isn’t already in place.  Considering he can’t sign an eight-year deal until after the trade deadline passes on Monday, they’ll wait until then at the very least but I think he’ll be staying in San Jose for a long time.

tigers22: Nyquist to Winnipeg for a 1st, Glendening to Toronto for a 3rd, and Howard to San Jose for a future 2nd. If Holland wants to re-sign Nyquist and Howard in the off-season isn’t this the best thing for the Red Wings now and in the future?

Let’s address the second part first.  Yes, the trade and sign option on paper is, at least in theory, the best-case scenario for Detroit.  They get some assets for the players and then get the players back.  It’s the best of both worlds.  However, it’s something that rarely happens.  (Montreal did it with Tomas Plekanec recently but he’s the exception, not the norm.)  If the Red Wings truly want to re-sign them, is the potential trade return worth the risk of not being able to bring them back if they decide they prefer their new team or to test the market?  Most GMs don’t think so which is why they often lock up their guys if they can.

As for the trade ideas, I don’t think Nyquist gets a first-rounder.  There aren’t many available and as well as he has played this season, there are better players than him available that will likely get those top picks.  Glendening to Toronto makes some sense but given the cap situation that the Maple Leafs have, Detroit would either need to retain some salary or take a player back.  Howard to San Jose is a fit on paper but I expect the Sharks will ultimately target a cheaper goaltender (think Ryan Miller or Kinkaid).

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The Metropolitan Division has been tightly contested all season and not surprisingly, there has been plenty of speculation on the trade front.  That was a popular topic among the mailbag questions this week, so much so that the teams in that division get the attention in this edition of the PHR Mailbag.  Questions that were asked but not discussed here will be covered in an extra mailbag column next week.  You can still add your questions here.

grizzled sports vet: Do you see Pittsburgh doing anything else before the deadline? As far as the back end goes, Schultz is returning, but Maatta was placed on the IR. They’ll need defensive depth for a playoff stretch run. Even if Maatta comes back it wouldn’t hurt to have another D-man to spell or even replace Jack Johnson if needed.

I know Jim Rutherford said he’d like to have a quiet trade deadline but let’s face it, he’ll find a way to do something.  Justin Schultz coming off of long-term injury reserve cuts down their cap room but they’ll still have a couple million of full-season space to work with.  At the very least, I can see them looking to upgrade on Chad Ruhwedel in terms of injury depth on the back end.

I wouldn’t be shocked to see him try to do something with winger Tanner Pearson.  His acquisition for pending UFA Carl Hagelin was a risky one given that Pearson has two years left at a pricey $3.75MM AAV after this one.  They were hoping that a change of scenery would help him rebound but it hasn’t happened and he is sliding down the depth chart (he’s a healthy scratch today).  If there’s a team out there that likes him as a middle-six winger, they’d be wise to look to move him.

Will Pittsburgh be as active as they were last year with swinging a unique three-way deal that saw Vegas retain on Derick Brassard with him being on the roster for all of a few minutes?  Probably not.  But Rutherford will be heard from again.

Jaysthoughts: Rutherford has always spun twine into gold. Now what player that doesn’t fit in on another team will be traded for Jack Johnson and hoist the Cup at season’s end?

With four years at $3.25MM per left after this one, the market for Johnson will be very limited.  The AAV isn’t terrible but the term is the big killer here.  (In other words, if he had two years left instead of four, I think there would be a reasonable trade market for him.)

There has been a significant escalation of player salaries at the top end of the market in recent years which has resulted in teams needing to scale back on their spending of mid-tier players.  Johnson can play in the top four when needed but in a perfect world, he’s a third pairing defender.   However, there aren’t many teams left that are able or willing to commit that much money long-term for a third pairing guy.  Instead, they’ll want blueliners making half of that or less to be able to reallocate the savings to a better player.

To be honest, I don’t think Rutherford is necessarily looking to get out from under Johnson’s deal.  The signing was widely panned (and justifiably so given the five-year term) but I’d suggest he has more or less played as they expected.  He’s giving them a little more than 19 minutes a game and while there have been some rocky moments along the way, those weren’t to be unexpected given how his time in Columbus ended.  I don’t think they were expecting a ton more from him, to be honest, so I don’t think he’s at the top of the wish list for the Penguins to trade.

Connorsoxfan: Could Hayes and Zuccarello be moved to the same team? Would someone like Boston who could use a 3rd line center (Hayes), a winger for Krejci (Zuccarello), and some immediate help if Pastrnak is out for a while? What would that return look like?

The idea is certainly interesting but I don’t think there are many teams who could pull that off with the salary cap implications (the two combine for nearly $10MM in a full-season deal and not a lot of contenders can take that on).  Yes, there’s always the potential of getting New York to retain but that will only up the asking price and the cost for a package like this would be steep.  Out of the teams really looking to add, I think Boston and maybe Winnipeg are the only ones that would do this.

Individually, I have both players getting a second rounder plus another piece with the second asset being more significant for Hayes.  If Ottawa takes one or both of their premium rentals off the market, then Hayes may be able to get a first but there are only a handful of those that are going to move.

To get both of them, however, I think the emphasis would shift towards quality over quantity.  A first rounder would need to be in there and instead of a second-round pick, a young roster player would be a target (from Boston, think of Danton Heinen or Matt Grzelcyk and from Winnipeg, someone like Jack Roslovic, players that are a little more established).  Depending on the player going back to New York, there may not be much more than that.

It’s a really interesting idea and one I think GM Jeff Gorton would be wise to try to do but a few of the big names would have to be off the board for this to be palatable.

mikedickinson: Hurricanes are making a run at the playoffs, but can’t afford to lose Ferland for nothing in the offseason. Do you see him moving on at the deadline?

I think the decision on this is probably still a week away.  If Carolina is still in the thick of the playoff race, then yes, I think they’ll hold onto Micheal Ferland and use him as their own rental player.  They have a big stretch coming up with four more games by next weekend and if they struggle, they could be out of it by then as well so GM Don Waddell should play it slow.

As for not being able to afford to lose him for nothing, I agree but only to an extent.  I don’t believe the trade market for him is going to be overly significant.  Again, there are only a handful of first-rounders in play and with all due respect to Ferland (who has played quite well this season), he’s not at the level of the high-end rentals that are in play.  At best, Carolina is foregoing a second rounder and a decent prospect.  While they could certainly benefit from adding more young assets to the system, keeping Ferland for a meaningful playoff push would be good for this core as well (assuming they don’t fall out of the race by next weekend, of course).  If they’re in it, I think they’ll keep him but if not, they’d be wise to ensure they get something for him.

acarneglia: Are the Blue Jackets a buyer and a seller at the deadline? Could Panarin be moved and then bring in someone like Duchene?

ThePriceWasRight: Do the Jackets wait till the very end to decide on Bob and Artemi? They need to know 100% where they are in the playoff picture as well as what prices are as they likely can’t trade Panarin for less than Duchene if he goes.

At this point, I’d almost be inclined to call Plan A being a seller on Artemi Panarin and then flipping those assets (and/or others) for another significant asset (be it Matt Duchene or someone else).  Keeping Panarin long-term looks entirely unrealistic at this point and he’s significant enough of a player that they really can’t lose him for free.

Barring Columbus going on a big losing streak next week, they’re still going to be in the mix so I don’t think they necessarily have to wait.  That said, they’re going to wind up waiting as Ottawa’s top guys are basically holding up the market at this point.  If Duchene and Mark Stone re-sign, that’s going to really up the ante on Panarin as the last one standing but if they’re made available, then flipping Panarin to acquiring one may be at the top of the to-do list.  Until Duchene and Stone decide what they’re doing, the market is at a standstill.

As for Sergei Bobrovsky, if the right deal was there, I think he’d be gone already.  Given the year he’s had, I can’t see Columbus giving him the contract he’s going to be seeking but at the same time, his struggles have hurt his trade value.  I’m leaning towards thinking he’ll stay with the trade return not being enough to justify weakening their playoff chances.

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The trade deadline is now less than two weeks away which means that activity levels around the league are bound to pick up in the coming days.  With the standings continuing to be as tight as they are, it’s going to certainly be interesting to see how that affects the market.  Will teams wait until the last minute to see where they are or will they try to make an earlier move in the hopes that an extra few games from a key acquisition will make the difference?

With that in mind, it’s time to run another mailbag to take your questions on the upcoming trade deadline and other topics from around the NHL. I’ll be answering your queries this coming weekend.  You can submit your question on Twitter by including #PHRMailbag or leave a comment down below.

You can catch up on our last mailbag set by clicking here and here where the topics included reshaping the Oilers, trade options for Detroit, what Calgary should be looking to add by the deadline, the goalie situation in St. Louis, whether Vancouver will buy or sell, and much more.

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include deadline targets for Vegas, Calgary, and Boston, the goaltending situations in St. Louis and New Jersey, what Vancouver could look to do in the next month, and more.

This mailbag covers the questions that weren’t addressed last week.  Click here for that article.

Steve Miller: What kind of trade deadline pickups do you expect from Vegas and what do you feel they need?

With nearly $68MM committed to just 12 healthy players for next season (excluding David Clarkson who will again be on LTIR), I don’t think George McPhee has enough financial wiggle room to add someone with term this time around like he did last season.  Accordingly, the focus is going to be on adding expiring contracts.

I think they could stand to add a bit more scoring depth and maybe try to upgrade their third line wings.  Teams with eyes on a long playoff run always want an extra defenseman or two and Vegas wouldn’t be an exception to that train of thought.  I could also see them kicking the tires on an upgrade for Malcolm Subban between the pipes or at the very least, some injury insurance.

From their dealings after the Expansion Draft, Vegas has two extra third rounders plus an extra fifth this year.  Between that and their extra cap space (I could see them trying to be a facilitator like they were with Brassard last year), those will be their best trade chips to play.

ThePriceWasRight: Nobody talks about the Flames but this team looks like it is a dangerous matchup for many teams in the West. What addition(s) do you see them making at the deadline?

I think there are a couple of areas they’d like to target.  The first is getting some goaltending insurance.  David Rittich is playing quite well but he still only has 52 career NHL games under his belt.  It’s not out of the realm of possibility that as teams start to see him more often, they find some weaknesses to exploit.  Mike Smith is supposed to be a stable veteran but this season has not gone well for him and if they’re forced to move him into the number one role if Rittich gets hurt or falters, there’s going to be some trepidation.

As much as they’re the second-best scoring team in the league, I also think they’d like to add some scoring depth.  Most of their offense comes from their top four forwards and while they’re all having career years, a deeper supporting cast would make them even more dangerous for the playoffs while hedging against a team figuring out a way to shut their top trio down.  Basically, they’ll probably want to add a rental player to come in and do the job that James Neal was supposed to fill but hasn’t (just five goals in 49 games).

Paul Heyman: With the Blues yet again within striking distance of a playoff spot, do they add a goalie to slot in either behind Jordan Binnington or add a starter to move Binnington to a backup role?

I don’t think they will and to be honest, I don’t think they should.  St. Louis needs to determine what they have in Binnington.  Is he a part of their future (even if it’s as a backup) or not?  Unless he gets to 28 games played (with at least 30 minutes in each), he qualifies for unrestricted free agency (Group Six status) this summer.  Shuffling him to a number two role doesn’t allow for much evaluation and could very well result in him leaving in July.  Keep him where he is – if he takes the number one spot from Jake Allen and runs with it, terrific.  If he falters and Allen resumes the starting job, then at least they’ll have a better idea about his upside.

While there are some veteran rentals that will likely be available, I don’t see one that’s going to come in and carry the team on a long winning streak.  With that in mind, why part with a future asset to get one?  Unless someone gets hurt or Binnington goes off the proverbial rails in the next few weeks, I suspect the Blues will stick with what they have.

ripaceventura30: With the recent rumors, do you think a deal could be made involving Wayne Simmonds and Cam Talbot with picks coming to Philly? (For the record, I view Talbot’s involvement as more of a salary dump than an asset).

The removal of Peter Chiarelli as GM in Edmonton likely makes this a tough sell but before that, I certainly could have seen them taking a run at Simmonds.  However, I suspect they would have been hesitant to part with their first-round pick to get him which may have made a move like this difficult as that’s the type of return Philadelphia will undoubtedly be seeking at this time.

I actually think the Flyers would be wise to look at Talbot down the stretch.  His trade value isn’t going to be too high and given his age and track record, I think he’s the right fit to partner with Carter Hart for a few years.  If GM Chuck Fletcher can acquire him for a negligible asset, I’d pull the trigger on the move now even though it’s adding a rental player to a non-playoff team.  Give that tandem a couple of months together to see if it’s the right fit.  If it isn’t, it’d be better to know now than after committing a new contract to him.

Mark Black: What does MacKenzie Blackwood’s emergence mean for the New Jersey Devils going forward? Surely the Devils aren’t looking forward to paying Cory Schneider $6 million a season to be a backup or play in a timeshare situation. What happens? Do Kinkaid or Schneider have any trade value this season?

Blackwood has done enough to play himself into their long-term plans.  He’s doing well enough that he should stay up for the rest of the season and be penciled into at least the number two role for 2019-20.  It’s hard to see him maintaining a high-end save percentage the rest of the way but even with a little regression, he could still be a quality backup at the very least.

As for the other two, I think Kinkaid has some trade value.  Unfortunately for New Jersey, given Schneider’s contract, struggles, and injury woes, that’s not something they’ll be able to trade their way out of.  With three years left, a buyout probably isn’t happening so he’s probably the other goalie alongside Blackwood to start next season.

That makes Kinkaid the odd man out.  He has taken a step back this year but his recent track record is still decent.  With a cap hit of just $1.25MM, he’s also one of the cheaper rental goalies out there.  I think there are teams that would view him as an upgrade for their number two spot and given that he has shouldered the bulk of the load this year, there should be some comfort knowing that he can handle a bigger workload if injuries arise.  I don’t think there will be a huge market for his services but a mid-round pick could be a reasonable return.

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