PHR Mailbag

Topics in this edition of the mailbag include the Adam McQuaid deal, Calder contenders, Artemi Panarin’s situation, rookies in Chicago, the latest big move in Vegas, and the odd situation surrounding defenseman Jake Dotchin.

acarneglia: Why would the Rangers part with Kampfer, a 4th, and a 7th to land McQuaid?

On the surface, a team that’s firmly in a rebuild parting with a pair of draft picks plus Steven Kampfer to land a one-year rental in McQuaid seems a little iffy.  I was a bit surprised at the move myself at first but I think I have an idea about the logic.

For starters, if Brendan Smith ultimately winds up back in the minors, the Rangers would have had just two defenders over the age of 25.  I know youth movements are all about playing the younger players but a veteran supporting cast is still needed.  McQuaid is someone that will be comfortable in a supporting role and won’t have to play every game.  They’ll get a chance to determine if he’s a fit in that type of role beyond this season.

If not, they can turn around and deal him before the trade deadline.  There are always contending teams looking to add depth defenders and it’s quite reasonable to think that they can at least get the fourth-rounder back, if not beat it depending on how McQuaid fares.  With that in mind, consider that Kampfer likely would have been waiver-bound anyway (meaning they would have run the risk of losing him for free), so how much did they really give up in the end?

It’s a low-risk move overall.  They’ll get a look at him to see if he’s a fit beyond 2018-19 and if not, they’ll flip him and recover a good chunk back of what they gave up.

Pawtucket: Who are the sleeper rookies/sophomores that may have big years this year? So rookies not picked in the top 5 and sophomores that were not considered for the Calder.

Technically, Filip Zadina (sixth overall back in June) qualifies but he’s a bit of an obvious choice so I won’t pick him.  Instead, here are five other players to ponder.

While everyone talks about Rasmus Dahlin in Buffalo, I think their top pick from 2017 in center Casey Mittelstadt (seventh overall) could be poised for a big role right off the bat.  He impressed late last season and if they opt to put Sam Reinhart as a winger, Mittelstadt could have a top-six role before too long which should have him in line for a very productive season.

A little more under the radar would be Carolina center Martin Necas.  The injury to Victor Rask paves the way for the 12th pick in 2017 to play a top-six role to start the season.  He’s coming off of a nice season in the Czech League, was dominant at the World Juniors, and played quite well at the Worlds back in May as well and if he carries that over, he could hold down that top-six spot even when the team is fully healthy.

In terms of true dark horses, I’d suggest Bruins forward Ryan Donato.  Boston didn’t hesitate to use him down the stretch last season and he played quite well.  With a vacancy in their top-six up for grabs, he could have a shot at landing it or at least a third line role to start.  I think Florida center Henrik Borgstrom (23rd overall in 2016) could have a big year but playing behind Aleksander Barkov and Vincent Trocheck, he’ll probably be too far under the radar to be a Calder contender.  Even so, he should have a big impact for the Panthers.  Then there’s winger Kristian Vesalainen (24th in 2017) in Winnipeg.  The Jets haven’t hesitated to put key rookies in crucial roles and if Vesalainen cracks the roster, he could follow suit.

The likes of Dahlin, Andrei Svechnikov, Zadina, and Elias Pettersson appear to be the early favorites to take home the Calder but some of these players should be in the mix as well.

@MexiCaliBlue19: What’s the deal with Artemi Panarin?

Based on comments his agent made, it sounds like Panarin does like Columbus but just not enough to commit to spending the next eight years there as things currently stand.  Unless something changes (such as the Blue Jackets becoming a top-flight contender or Panarin being willing to sign another short-term deal), there appears to be a stalemate.  Given that he is pegged to be one of the top unrestricted free agents next summer, he has little motivation to accept a short-term deal when he can command a max-term deal in free agency.

At this point, what GM Jarmo Kekalainen will need to decide is whether or not they’re better off dealing him (for what would likely be a futures-based return) or to use him as an ‘internal rental’ in the hopes of making a long postseason run.  Of course, the latter route means that there’s a very good chance that they would lose him for nothing come July but their playoff hopes are a lot better with him than without.

Earlier this week, Panarin ruled out having any further discussions regarding a contract extension so he appears intent to hit the open market one way or another.  With that in mind, a parting of the ways seems inevitable at this point.

Gerald Arrington: As an avid Chicago Blackhawks fan, I am interested in projections for rookies Dominik Kahun, Victor Ejdsell, Dylan Sikura, Jacob Nilsson. How will they fit in with the core players and which rookie will have the biggest impact for the team?

I’d peg Sikura as the likeliest one to have a notable impact.  He’s a skilled but small forward that is probably best suited to play in the top-six (or an offensive-minded third line).  He acquitted himself well in a limited sample size last season and he should be able to lock down a regular role.

I liked the addition of Ejdsell back at the trade deadline.  He can play both center and the left wing and it was on the wing that he showed some offensive upside with Rockford in the playoffs.  That said, I’m not sold that it will translate into consistent NHL production.  He’s a bottom-six player in the NHL and while he could hold down a fourth line spot right away, I could see them starting him in the minors instead to give him more development time.

I’ve liked Kahun’s play internationally for Germany going back to the World Juniors but I’m not sure it will translate to the NHL.  I have some doubts about his offensive game but his two-way game is good enough to give him a chance to maybe play on a third line.  His European Assignment Clause could help him stick around to start the season but I don’t think he’ll have the same impact as Sikura.

As for Nilsson, I suspect he’ll start in Rockford with the hopes of playing his way into a call-up midseason.  There’s a connection with head coach Jeremy Colliton from his days with Mora which likely played a role in him choosing to sign with the Blackhawks.  He may see some action on injury recall but I don’t think his NHL impact will be too substantial this coming season.

Other than Sikura, I don’t there will be much of an impact with their core.  The other players project to be cheaper roster fillers than ones that will see much time with Chicago’s top players.  Sikura, if all goes well, can get to that level and it wouldn’t be shocking to see him alongside one of Jonathan Toews or Artem Anisimov at times in 2018-19.

Zack35: Even though Vegas made it to the Cup Final, does it make sense to just switch gears from trying to build through the draft, to now trading a bunch of picks for Tatar, and then Suzuki in the deal for Pacioretty? It just doesn’t make sense to me. After Glass and Brannstrom they don’t have a lot coming.

@KylePickering4: How good is the second line in Vegas going to be now that they have Pacioretty and Stastny?

To be fair, has anything really made sense with Vegas over their first year of existence?  They weren’t supposed to be more than maybe somewhat competitive early on but after a trip to the Stanley Cup Final, it certainly seems like they’re in their window to contend now.  Those windows don’t come around too often so I understand why they’re taking their big swing even though it goes against all traditional logic of a new team in the league.

Their move to acquire Tomas Tatar didn’t make much sense at the time and looks even worse now but Max Pacioretty is a different class of player.  He’s still a legitimate top liner and should be able to replace (and probably improve upon) James Neal’s output from last year.  They gave up a lot in Nick Suzuki but getting a core player for five years makes that justifiable even though they don’t yet have the deepest of prospect pools.  That said, they shouldn’t be making too many more of these types of trades.

I’m not convinced that everything is going to go as well as it did last year.  A lot of players vastly outperformed expectations and some regression is to be expected.  However, adding Pacioretty and Paul Stastny to the mix should help offset some of that regression.

If the two close friends (and teammates internationally) wind up playing together, that will be a very strong second line.  I think someone like Alex Tuch would be a nice complementary piece for that unit as he has the skill to keep up and make teams pay if they focus their attention on the other two.  Assuming the top line can produce at a somewhat comparable rate as last season, the Golden Knights shouldn’t have too many issues getting production up front.

Connorsoxfan: What the heck is going on with Jake Dotchin?

Does anyone else feel like there’s more going on than what’s currently out there?  I get that his conditioning is poor and that it’s the second straight year that it has happened.  Conditioning can be improved though.  With that in mind, how did he clear waivers?  A young, right-shot defenseman with NHL experience on a good team that has a cap hit that’s cheaper than some minor league call-up options should not be going through unclaimed based on what’s out there publicly.

What’s really intriguing about this is the possibility of other teams following suit and trying to terminate contracts based on poor conditioning.  (We’ve already seen that happen once earlier today.)  Not many are going to bat an eye for a depth player like Dotchin but what if a team tries it with a more significant player on a bigger contract?  What level of poor conditioning constitutes a “material breach” of a contract?  Are teams going to try to put in specific conditioning standards into writing now with the idea that if they’re not met, they have an easy out?

Even if Dotchin finds another team, I wonder if the NHLPA still looks to grieve this if for no other reason than to try to prevent this from becoming a more frequent occurrence.  One agent told Joe Smith of The Athletic (Twitter link) that this could be the beginning of the proverbial Pandora’s Box and I’m inclined to agree.  Dotchin’s case is fairly notable in itself in my opinion but the long-term effects of this, if it stands, could be quite significant.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

This edition of the PHR mailbag takes a look at what the Senators should do with their pending unrestricted free agents, assesses the Metropolitan Division, compares the Henrik Zetterberg situation to Marian Hossa’s, and looks at whether or not the Bruins need to make a move to upgrade their top-six up front.

ThePriceWasRight: Fantasy GM time. Sens have Duchene, Karlsson, Stone, Dzingel all facing UFA after this season. Noting that obviously ownership plays a factor, How would you address each situation?

Looking at it from afar, the objective approach would be to accept the reality that a long-term rebuild is their best course of action, particularly with the self-imposed payroll constraints.  However, the Senators are a team that has lost a lot in ticket sales in recent years – they’ve dropped in average attendance for three straight years and averaged less than 16,000 a night last season.  Take Erik Karlsson, Matt Duchene, and Mark Stone out of the lineup and that number is really going to take a hit.  There are already some concerns about the long-term viability of the franchise and a big cut in ticket sales is only going to exacerbate that.

With that in mind, I think Ottawa has to make a legitimate effort to re-sign their big three UFAs.  It sounds like they’ve made that effort with Karlsson already but not the other two just yet.  These are all players that will still be impact players a few years from now when the rebuild should be coming to an end.  If they can’t get something done, then they have to bite the bullet and deal them all, taking the risk that their ticket revenue is really going to dip.  (I expect that if this was to happen, they’d really be in the market for players with high cap hits and low salaries to allow them to opt for an actual payroll below the cap floor.)

I don’t think the market for Karlsson gets a whole lot better as the season progresses so he’s one that I’d look to move sooner than later.  (And I wouldn’t devalue what they get for him by looking to attach Bobby Ryan’s deal either – GM Pierre Dorion needs the best return possible.)  It’s often easier to work around salaries now than it is in mid-February.  Duchene’s case could stand to wait a little while as they’d probably be better served waiting to try to leverage a team that has a long-term injury to one of their top-six centers.  Since a new deal for Stone can’t really be worked out until January at the earliest, I’d wait to move him until then when an ‘acquire-and-extend’ becomes a legitimate option as I think that’s where his value will be maximized.

As for Ryan Dzingel, I think a bit more patience is required.  He doesn’t have a long-term track record to build off; he has only been an NHL regular for two years.  Could he be a part of their long-term plans?  It’s probably too early to say.  If he fares well and looks like he could be a core part, then I’d be making a push to extend him after January.  If no deal can be reached, then he’s a nice trade commodity at the deadline given his $1.8MM cap hit which is something a lot of contenders should be able to afford.

acarneglia: Can you make sense of the crazy Metropolitan division? Capitals, Penguins, Blue Jackets seem to be the favorites, but the Flyers, Devils, and Hurricanes are on the rise. Don’t count out the Rangers and Islanders either.

At this point, I’m prepared to count out the Rangers and Islanders.  Both teams have enough talent on their rosters to not be pushovers but merely being competitive isn’t going to be enough to knock off some of the top teams in the Metro.

I don’t think Carolina is really going to be in the mix either.  This is a team that struggled to score last season and decided that their best course of action was to get rid of one of their few scoring threats in Jeff Skinner for a bunch of mid-tier future assets.  They still have significant question marks in goal as well – newcomer Petr Mrazek has been up-and-down in recent years while Scott Darling’s first season as a starter wasn’t pretty.  They have a good young nucleus to build around and a strong back end but their incoming rookies up front probably won’t be enough to solve their scoring woes which will hold them back.

New Jersey was a pleasant surprise last year but a lot went right for them.  I wouldn’t be shocked if they took a small step back, especially since they haven’t done anything to improve this summer.  They can still push for a Wild Card position but a top-three spot may be out of their reach.

The Flyers are consistently inconsistent and have goalie questions of their own.  However, adding James van Riemsdyk really gives them a boost up front.  Columbus has questions surrounding Artemi Panarin’s future.  If they decide to go for it this year and add, I think they could land the number three spot but if not (or if they move him), I’d put Philly in that position instead.

That leaves Pittsburgh and Washington for the top two spots.  Both teams are returning the bulk of their cores from last year but I think a healthy Matt Murray could be worth a few more wins next season which would wipe out the five-point gap they had a year ago.  It’s going to be a coin flip but if I had to pick right now, I’d give the Penguins the top spot.

@SirReginaldRay: So, is Detroit pulling a “Hossa” with Zetterberg? I hate to make light of any injury or allergy, but are we seeing the new way teams get out of the punishment for those long front-loaded, back-diving contracts? Seems a shame to deny players a proper retirement.

The back issues for Henrik Zetterberg aren’t completely out of nowhere.  It has been documented that he missed a lot of practice time last season due to the pain but he managed to still suit up for every game.  Marian Hossa’s career-ending glove allergy was out of the blue so the parallel isn’t really perfect.

However, I find it curious that in speaking about him, Red Wings brass has been talking about how he may not play next season already.  We’re in mid-August and the end of the season is still nearly eight months away.  A lot can change regarding Zetterberg’s back issues between now and then.  The fact they’re saying that instead of simply questioning his availability for the start of the year has at least made me wonder if something’s up.

It should be noted that while Zetterberg’s salary takes a big dip for the upcoming season, it’s not down to the much-lower level that Hossa’s is at.  He’s still owed a $3.35MM salary which is far from insignificant.  For the final two years, it drops to $1MM and at that time, I think there will be mutual interest in him having a lengthy stay on LTIR.  It’s that reason that I don’t believe this is the same as Hossa’s case although I certainly understand the comparison.  We’ve seen this done before and it probably is the sign of things to come when other deals like this approach their completion.

Puckhead83: You are now Don Sweeney. Your fan base is clamoring for you to go out and get Top 6 help. Since Day 1, you preached a youth movement. What do you do?

If I’m Sweeney, I’m inclined to practice what I’ve preached.  There’s an opening in the top-six but I don’t think it has to be filled right away.  Jake DeBrusk, Danton Heinen, and Ryan Donato all showed signs of promise last year – if one or more of them continue to progress, things will be looking pretty good.  (I’m also optimistic that David Backes can have more of an impact if he can stay healthy.)  I’d also want to see if other young forwards (Anders Bjork, Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson, or Trent Frederic) could make a push to fill a spot.  It’s going to take some time to evaluate those options so filling up the position with a more proven option now could be a bit counter-productive.

What works in Boston’s favor is the lack of competitive depth in the Atlantic.  Ottawa’s in for a rough year, Detroit doesn’t appear to be on the verge of contention, and Montreal would need an awful lot to go right to really be in the mix.  Buffalo will be better but they missed the playoffs by 35 points last year – are they that much better?  Probably not just yet.  Even if the Bruins take a small step back, they’re at worst contending for a Wild Card spot.  As a GM, I’d look at this as an opportunity to really play things out.  If the young players aren’t ready, then the time will be right to make another in-season move for a top-six winger closer to the trade deadline.  If they are ready, then I don’t have the necessity to make a move which gives me some leverage in talks leading to the deadline; any trade I make then is to add extra depth which is more of a luxury-type move.

There’s a temptation to deal away from the defensive depth (Torey Krug has come up a lot in speculation) but unless there’s a young, cost-controlled forward with several years of team control available, I think the team would be better off having the additional firepower from the back end even if it means potentially carrying eight defenders to start the season.  There are always injuries and the teams that have extra capable replacements are typically a lot better off for it in the end.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Our first mailbag for August takes a look at some of the best moves made this summer, cap-clearing ideas in Pittsburgh and St. Louis, questions on the back end for Toronto and Winnipeg, and expected expansion in Seattle.

DaBinx: What’s been the best contract handed out this offseason? Best trade?

Out of the unrestricted free agents, I’m going to pick one of the smaller deals handed out.  Dan Hamhuis isn’t a top pairing player anymore but he’s still capable of playing in the top four when needed and help on the penalty kill.  For Nashville to get him for $1.25MM per year is a fantastic move.  He’ll stabilize their third pairing and provide some quality injury insurance for a minimal cost.  In terms of a more notable signing, David Perron’s return to St. Louis (four years, $16MM) was a very good one.  He’s not going to repeat his 2017-18 numbers but at a $4MM cap hit, he doesn’t need to.  If he can be a good second liner (or even a great third liner), the Blues will get good value here.  Assuming he stays healthy, Perron’s a safe bet to accomplish that.

As for the best RFA contract, I’m again going to Nashville with goaltender Juuse Saros (three years, $1.5MM).  That’s well below the market value for a quality backup ($2.5MM – $3MM that we’ve seen in free agency) and with Pekka Rinne set to potentially become a UFA next summer, this deal gives them a potential number one at a very cheap price.

On the trade front, I really liked San Jose’s moves with Mike Hoffman.  The fact that they were able to get out of the final two years of Mikkel Boedker’s deal was impressive as was their follow-up swap that landed them a trio of draft picks.  They essentially managed to get good value for a player that a lot of people would have suggested had next to no value at all.  They still have plenty of cap space to work with for the upcoming season so the full benefit of their movement here has yet to be felt.  An honorable mention goes to Buffalo in the Jeff Skinner deal.  They added a legitimate top-six forward for a lot of spare parts.  If the Sabres work their way towards a playoff spot, it’s a win for them.  If they don’t, they should be able to recoup most of what they gave up (if not more) come the trade deadline which also makes it a win for them.  This is as close to a no-risk proposition as you can get when adding a core player.

Paul Heyman: What would a Bouwmeester and/or Gunnarsson trade get the Blues aside from salary relief to re-sign Jordan Schmaltz?

To be honest, probably not a whole lot.  With the year Carl Gunnarsson had (one that saw him scratched at times), his value isn’t going to be more than a mid-round pick at this point.  They’d probably get better value if they tried to a do a player-for-player swap but that wouldn’t yield the cap savings you’re looking for.

As for Jay Bouwmeester, I don’t think there’s any real market out there for him.  He missed so much time last season with various injuries (including the hip problem that ended his campaign prematurely) that teams are going to want to see him play for a while to make sure he’s fully healthy before giving up anything of value.  His $5.4MM cap hit doesn’t help either, nor does his full no-trade clause.  If they want to move him now, the return would be very underwhelming.

Having said all this, I don’t think St. Louis needs to necessarily deal either of them.  They have a surplus of forwards that they can waive and cut (Chris Thorburn and Jordan Nolan come to mind) to free up more than enough room to keep Schmaltz.  Coming off of his entry-level deal with minimal NHL experience under his belt, Schmaltz doesn’t have the leverage to really command much more than his qualifying offer.  Going this way would see them once again heading into the year with minimal cap room but it would put them in a situation where they may be able to hold out for a bit more value if they do want to deal someone for cap space as by then, some teams will be dealing with injuries and will be looking for capable replacements.

ThePriceWasRight: Fantasy GM time. If you are Dubas, and your goal is to lock up Nylander, Marner and Matthews long term, how or what do you do to address the D? Could Nazem Kadri or Jake Gardiner be considered trade bait?

Kadri has quietly been one of the more productive centers in the league the last couple of years when it comes to goal scoring.  While it’s certainly difficult to move on from that, I’d have to put him in the trade category.  With John Tavares locked up long-term and Auston Matthews soon to be, Kadri is now going to be no more than a third liner for the rest of his contract (which last four more years).  That’s a fantastic luxury to have but is that the best use of an asset like that?  With the demand for quality help down the middle being as high as it is, the Leafs should be able to land a core defenseman either signed or under team control for several more years for him.  That leaves them a little thin at center but short-term, Patrick Marleau can play there in a pinch and it’s a lot easier to land a third line pivot than a core defender so it’s a risk I’d be willing to take if I was Kyle Dubas.

From the standpoint of not letting a core piece go for nothing, the temptation is there to move Gardiner but at the same time, they’re also trying to go deep in the playoffs next year.  Unless they can get a top-four blueliner in return, it’d be tough to move Gardiner as losing him would really hurt their back end.

Toronto has a surplus of quality young forwards that are either set to make an impact this season or will be knocking on the door soon.  I’d be looking to deal one of those with one of their defensive prospects in exchange for a better young defender that’s close to being NHL ready and try to upgrade their depth that way.  They’re going to need cheaper defenders to offset the big salaries up front so positioning their back end to be on cheap entry-level deals as their big-ticket contracts kick in will be critical.  They’re not going to be able to have an elite and established defense corps so going young with upside to accompany the likes of Timothy Liljegren and Rasmus Sandin will be the way to go.

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We’re reaching the slowest point in the NHL offseason as we wait for training camp to arrive. While the World Junior Summer Showcase and KHL preseason are getting underway, we won’t see NHL hockey for some time. With that, we thought it necessary to answer some of your questions about how the offseason has gone. What are your biggest concerns about your favorite team, or what keeps you up at night wondering?

Our Brian La Rose is here to answer all your questions about the offseason, and explain what he thinks about the moves made around the league. Is the Tom Wilson contract going to haunt Washington down the road? Who was the most underrated addition? Where exactly is Tampa Bay supposed to get the cap space to add Erik Karlsson? Make sure to submit your questions using the hashtag #PHRMailbag on Twitter, or by commenting down below.

In the last PHR Mailbag which you can read right here, Brian tried to handicap the John Tavares sweepstakes the night before free agency opened. Though he did list Toronto as a real possibility, he expected like everyone else for the captain to return to New York. Brian touched on other subjects including goaltending, the Chicago Blackhawks and whether Jack Johnson is already overpaid.

This edition of the PHR Mailbag features a look at the Blackhawks, Blues, and Islanders plus discussions on a new Pittsburgh defenseman and a certain free agent center that is holding up the market.

Zack35: What do you think the percentages are on Tavares sweepstakes? Does NYI 40%, SJ 40%, everyone else 20% sound about right?

acarneglia: Which John Tavares suitor is the best fit for him of Boston, Tampa, Dallas, Toronto and San Jose?

Not surprisingly, Tavares was a popular topic in the questions so I’ll tackle this from a couple of different angles.

In terms of the percentages, I’d give the Islanders (40%) a slight edge over San Jose (35%) simply because of the eighth year option and the fact that Tavares has said in the past he genuinely would like to stay (and I believe him).  In terms of the third best odds, I’d put Toronto (10%) ahead of the others simply because of the hometown factor and the potential for a one-year max deal that would allow him to really cash in now and then still land a huge contract next summer.  I’d have Dallas (7.5%) next since both Tyler Seguin and Jason Spezza are UFAs at the end of the year; there is a long-term spot for him that wouldn’t require a whole lot of roster movement to fit him in.  That’s not the case for Boston (3.75%) who already has a couple of pricey centers locked up (plus David Backes) and Tampa Bay (3.75%) who simply don’t have the cap room and would have to make a few moves to fit him in now and then a few more next summer.

As for where he fits in the best aside from New York, I’ll once again lead with San Jose.  Their center position could really change in the next little while and I think he would complement their offense well.  After that, I’d go with Dallas given the potential UFA situation a year from now.  The Leafs would love to have him and Auston Matthews as a one-two punch but with Matthews and Mitch Marner up a year from now, they’d have a hard time keeping all three around long-term.  Is it ideal to lock up Tavares to a max-term deal knowing they’ll probably have to deal one of the other two away a year from now?  After that, I’d put Boston ahead of Tampa Bay but I don’t like the fit that much for either team.

shelteredsoxfan: What sort of moves do you see the Blackhawks making this offseason?

They need a better backup goalie and while I’m not convinced he’s the best option out there, it certainly sounds like Cam Ward will be the choice there.  I doubt that Anton Forsberg will draw much trade interest so Ward’s addition shouldn’t result in a follow-up move.

Defensively, I have a hard time thinking they’re going to bring back the same unit that struggled in 2017-18.  Considering what they have coming up in the pipeline though, I think they’d prefer to go the trade route and get someone with a year or two left on their contract that can play on the second pairing over giving a long-term deal to someone like Calvin de Haan.  It wouldn’t surprise me to see them look to move Connor Murphy who has four years left on his deal in that type of trade.

Up front is where it’s interesting.  I think they’d like to make a splash and go after someone like James van Riemsdyk and really give themselves another scoring threat.  However, the cap room is going to be iffy, even with Marian Hossa going back on LTIR.  (Speaking of Hossa, I think GM Stan Bowman will be calling his counterpart in Ottawa about trying to offload that contract at some point.)  I also wouldn’t be surprised if this is the summer that Artem Anisimov gets moved.  Nick Schmaltz may be ready to take on a full-time second line role and enough teams will miss out on the few centers that are out there that they’ll view Anisimov as a fallback option.  A youngster-based return would free up enough space to take a run at one of those top wingers on the open market as well.  The pieces are there if Chicago wants to shake things up this summer.

@swabbb1: Hey #PHRMailbag, is Jack Johnson worth the money and 5-year deal reports out of Pittsburgh say the Pens will give him as early as Sunday? Thanks.

I know the numbers aren’t pretty but I think Johnson in a new environment will rebound somewhat.  He has needed a change of scenery for a while and I think that will rejuvenate him.  With that in mind, I don’t hate the AAV for this deal.  If he can be a decent fourth or fifth defender, that’s about the going rate in free agency.  It’s not a bargain but I don’t think it will be a massive overpay, at least at the start.

But five years?  I’m having a hard time spinning that into a positive.  It’s not like he’s 27 or 28 and can realistically be expected to still be a good contributor five years from now.  He’s 31 and is going to be showing signs of slowing down over the next couple of years, especially with all of the hard minutes he has played in the past.  I’d have thought three years at that AAV would have been reasonable.

There is some reward potential with this contract.  If getting to a new team (and one that has had success getting blueliners back on track) gets Johnson going, this could turn into a good deal.  But there is a lot of risk involved here as well, especially in those last couple of years.

Anakin Skywalker: With the chance Carter Hutton doesn’t re-sign with the Blues, should they target Lehner, Mrazek, or call up Husso?

When it comes to young goalies, unless they’re pushing to be the starter, I’m a believer in letting them exhaust their waiver exemption before bringing them up to sit on the bench for 60 games a year.  Minutes matter and Ville Husso is going to get a lot more of them in the minors than he will with the Blues so I’m all for St. Louis signing another goalie in free agency.

I prefer Robin Lehner of the two options you’ve provided.  Yes, he had a rough year in Buffalo but he had minimal defense in front of him.  He’s going to be motivated and with the Blues, he’d have a much better back end helping him out.  I think they’d like to add someone that can push Jake Allen and of the goalies that are available on the open market, Lehner’s the likeliest to do so out of any of them which would make him my primary target.

nk: Although I believe the Isles will sign JT, there are other needs especially in goal and on D. Who do you think the Isles will go after (either in trade market or UFA) for a goaltender and with a poor D and the reality that both Hickey and de Haan are probably gone, who steps up, in or is acquired to bolster that position?

In terms of goaltending, they’ve been linked to Ottawa’s Craig Anderson which is a reasonable fit.  I can’t see the asking price being particularly high and if recent history repeats itself, he’s in line for a good year in 2018-19.  They can have their choice of stopgap goalies in free agency (Carter Hutton would have been my pick but he seems to be Buffalo-bound).  After that, I like Petr Mrazek as an option for them as he has shown in the past he can be capable of getting on a hot streak.  He’d be a platoon player with Thomas Greiss and while that’s not the best tandem on paper, both netminders have had solid stretches in the past.  I wouldn’t be shocked if they kick the tires on some younger options as well such as Pittsburgh’s Tristan Jarry, Montreal’s Charlie Lindgren, or even Toronto’s Garret Sparks if GM Lou Lamoriello liked what he saw from him in his days with the Maple Leafs.

The options aren’t as plentiful on defense.  If de Haan leaves, I could see them turning to Ian Cole as a potential replacement.  He probably can’t log the 20 or so minutes per game that de Haan can but he should at least be able to cover 17 or 18 minutes a night and give them another physical player on their back end.  They’ll expect Ryan Pulock to take a big jump forward and I suspect they’ll be comfortable using Sebastian Aho more as well.  Is that really enough?  Probably not.  I could see the Islanders looking to take on a salary cap dump from another team to try to upgrade their depth – Tampa Bay’s Braydon Coburn and St. Louis’ Carl Gunnarsson (if they plan to be active in free agency) come to mind as candidates.  It’s patchwork but this isn’t a good summer to try to really rebuild a defense corps so unless they want to part with a top pick or prospect, that’s about all they’ll be able to do.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Where will John Tavares sign anyway? We might not have the answer to that until Sunday, but we can certainly answer many of your other burning questions on the recent draft or upcoming free agency. After the first round failed to play out like anyone had expected, who are the biggest winners and losers? Which free agent will get the most surprising deal?

Our Brian La Rose will answer all your questions this weekend before free agency kicks off, and provide ample fodder for your transaction thirst. We know, it’s hard to wait around for free agency; about as hard as it must be for the reporters sitting outside CAA staking out the Tavares negotiations, with “no comment” the only response to any of their questions. Well Brian will be much more forthcoming with his answers, as long as you submit them using the hashtag #PHRMailbag on Twitter, or by commenting down below.

You can read our pre-draft mailbag right here, where Brian correctly predicted Oliver Wahlstrom dropping out of the top-10 and already didn’t believe the Rangers would be involved in Tavares-talk. There’s plenty to talk about from the weekend, and he’s waiting for your questions to be submitted. If your questions doesn’t get through, don’t forget to join in on the return of our PHR Live Chat, Sunday morning before free agency opens.

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include the upcoming draft, trade scenarios for a pair of Western Canadian teams, and much more.

Zack35: I think everyone is aware this draft is probably going to be a gong show because anybody from 4-10 could probably go anywhere. Which of Tkachuk, Kotkaniemi, Bouchard, Hughes, Dobson, Wahlstrom and Boqvist could you see falling further than expected?

I think you can even go one further and say three-to-ten could go a lot of different ways.  I don’t think it’s a guarantee that the Canadiens will take winger Filip Zadina with pick number three and if they don’t, things will really get shaken up.  They’re speculatively linked to about four different players right now and will be the team that really gets the ball rolling on the rest of the top-ten.

As things stand, winger Brady Tkachuk seems to be a consensus top-five pick but I think he could slide if Montreal doesn’t take him or Zadina.  In that scenario, Ottawa likely picks the Czech winger and I think we’ll see a run on defensemen at five through seven.  That would drop him to Chicago at number eight at the earliest which would put him lower than a lot of people expect.

I think winger Oliver Wahlstrom could be another that drops a little bit.  In general, I think the top-four defenders not named Rasmus Dahlin go in the top nine which doesn’t leave a lot of room for Wahlstrom.  Teams like the Oilers and Islanders (who pick 10, 11, and 12) have real needs for blueliners so I could see a scenario where he drops a little out of the top-ten.  Having said that, I don’t expect any of that group to start falling down into the mid-to-late teens of the first round.

goggles: The Winnipeg Jets are going to have to be very creative going forward with salaries. Who will the Jets be looking to move to free up some cap space and who would fetch the best return?

Up front, Mathieu Perreault feels like a likely casualty at some point.  He fits in nicely as a player who can be shuffled into a variety of different roles and positions and still put up around 40 points but with the young talent they have pushing for spots, they can probably get a similar output from someone making less than a quarter of his $4.125MM cap hit.  A team that strikes out in free agency could very well turn to Winnipeg and offer up a decent futures-based return to get a deal done.

I wouldn’t be surprised if GM Kevin Cheveldayoff looked to move goalie Steve Mason ($4.1MM for one more year) and defenseman Dmitry Kulikov ($4.33MM AAV for two more years).  Connor Hellebuyck is going to be an expensive contract this summer and as a result, they could wind up with one of the more expensive goalie tandems in the league which isn’t ideal.  As for Kulikov, that contract felt like an overpayment right away and still does now.  One year from now when he becomes an expiring deal is probably the likeliest time that he gets dealt.

With rearguards Dustin Byfuglien signed for three more years and Jacob Trouba expected to sign long-term this summer, I question if there’s a long-term spot for defenseman Tyler Myers.  He has one year left at $5.5MM on his deal and is coming off of a really nice season.  If they were to make him available, there will be teams lining up to try to get him (and then throw a lot of money into an extension offer).  He could fetch a king’s ransom in a trade, including a young defender that’s more cost-controlled over the next few years when they have to extend wingers Patrik Laine and Kyle Connor, among others.  I suspect the Jets wouldn’t want to do this given the year they just had but it may be the prudent way to go, even if it results in a small step back in the short-term.

acarneglia: Are the Rangers a threat to sign John Tavares?

They certainly have the money to go after him but with them turning around and openly starting a rebuild and hiring a coach with the goal of short-term player development in mind, it would be a little surprising to see them quickly change gears by signing Tavares.  I also can’t see him wanting to sign with a team that isn’t focused on winning in the next couple of years.  He’s going to get offers from a lot of teams that are closer to winning now and the money is going to be pretty close in all of those offers so I’d expect him to pick more of a contender.

Instead, I think New York will turn their focus in free agency to ‘buffer players’.  These are players who are willing to sign a short-term contract to cover the gap until the likes of Lias Andersson, Filip Chytil, and others are ready to step up into prominent roles.  These veterans would then become trade bait either this season or next, allowing the Rangers to pick up some additional future assets.  If I were them, I’d put a decent chunk of the contract as signing bonuses which would make them easier to move when the time comes.  That’s certainly not as thrilling as going after a top player like Tavares but given where the Rangers are, the buffers are the likelier outcome over these next few weeks.

@bmac039: Which 1-3 players off the Canucks current roster do you view as most expendable if the Canucks are trying to fix their blue line and add a Center, via trade? In other words, teams will want Sutter? Tanev? And who would the Canucks be okay trading away if it makes them better?

Vancouver is in a bit of a rebuilding cycle now so the defense and center upgrades are going to be more long-term than short-term.  With that in mind, it’s the veterans they’re going to be looking to move.

Of those veterans, their two top blueliners are most likely to yield a quality younger asset in return.  Chris Tanev has been speculated as potential trade fodder for a while now and would attract plenty of interest.  However, GM Jim Benning has already stated that they’re not looking to move him so while he may be expendable, it doesn’t appear that they’re willing to deal him just yet.  I think that won’t be the case with Alex Edler.  I wouldn’t be surprised if he was open to a move to a contender (waiving his no-trade clause to do so) and he can slot in on a top pairing quite comfortably.  This is the type of player a contender will view as that final piece and would pay a premium for and included in that would likely be a long-term piece of the puzzle.

Unfortunately for Vancouver, he may very well be the only player that can be moved to upgrade their long-term situation.  They’d love to get out from underneath winger Loui Eriksson’s deal but at this stage, the only way he goes is in a swap of bad contracts.  Goalie Anders Nilsson is expendable but he’d be worth a mid-round pick which doesn’t move the needle.  Ditto for blueliner Ben Hutton whose poor 2017-18 season tanked his trade value.  Center Brandon Sutter has some value but as someone who is probably best served on the third line, his $4.375MM cap hit is a little steep.

There are a lot of complementary veterans that could wind up going over the next couple of years but aside from Edler (and Tanev if Benning has a change of heart), they’re not going to result in the Canucks adding core assets in return.  Accordingly, they’re probably going to stick to the current course – try to draft and develop well and sign mid-tier free agents that won’t prohibit them from making a big splash when the time is right and the core is ready to contend.

Connorsoxfan: Why does Marc Bergevin keep making 1-for-1 trades he’s destined to lose?

Friday’s trade of wingers that saw Alex Galchenyuk move from Montreal to Arizona for Max Domi was a bit of a head-scratcher from the Canadiens’ perspective at first glance.  For a team that struggles to score, trading a goal scorer for a playmaker is a risky proposition.  If Galchenyuk gets to play at center and thrives, he’ll put himself in a great situation to get paid a couple of years from now in unrestricted free agency and during his media scrum on Saturday, Bergevin did note that the team control element (four years for Domi versus two for Galchenyuk) played a factor in this trade.

As for the question at hand, I wonder if Bergevin sticks to his initial player evaluations for too long.  As part of his justification for the trade, he raved about Domi’s junior production but he hasn’t played there in three years.  He made similar comments about Jonathan Drouin when that move was made a year ago.  The scouting report for a player changes from the junior ranks to three seasons into their NHL career but Bergevin seems to believe that junior-level production and role is still a possibility despite that being very unlikely.

Montreal’s GM has often brought up attitude and character as elements that are of critical importance and ones that play a role when they struggle.  I suspect he believes that these big moves that he has made in recent years will improve the team in this area and that the gains there will offset any potential drop-off in terms of talent.  There aren’t a lot of others that would necessarily share that sentiment but as the shot-caller for the Canadiens, it’s Bergevin’s valuation that ultimately matters the most.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.