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League-Wide Notes: Haggarty, Vegas, Martin, Vesey

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Harley Haggarty writes in the Player’s Tribune today about his role as a fighter in junior and the AHL. His knowledge of his expiration date is fairly interesting, and generally speaking, the difference between this and what players in the big leagues say, NHL players tend to have more optimistic views and tend to want more to stay in the NHL for longer, is interesting in terms of analyzing players who choose to keep playing in the AHL once they realize they won’t be NHL stars.

More links from around the league:

  • Gord Miller of TSN reports on Twitter that the Las Vegas NHL franchise will be named the Knights.
  • Sportsnet’s Eric Engels writes today about the PK Subban trade, saying at one point that Mat Pfeffer, an analytics consultant for the Canadiens, likely lost his job because of his opposition to the trade.
  • Draglikepull at  The Leafs Nation writes statistically about the Matt Martin signing. His analysis seems to suggest that Martin struggles to create offense.
  • Todd Cordell of HockeyBuzz reports that the Devils stand a shot at signing Harvard forward Jimmy Vesey. Cordell reports that they’re on Vesey’s short list. Vesey, who was drafted by Nashville, had 24 goals and 22 assists playing for Harvard last year.

Western Conference Notes: Schmaltz, Subban, Larsson

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Evidently the new Las Vegas expansion team is wasting little time getting up and running. As we mentioned yesterday, the newest entry in the Western Conference was closing in on naming the first GM in franchise history. Today we learned a press conference has indeed been scheduled for tomorrow at 1 pm PST where club owner Bill Foley is expected to announce his choice. Speculation, and that’s all it is at this point, is that George McPhee, formerly the longtime GM of the Washington Capitals and currently serving as an adviser with the Islanders under Garth Snow, will be named Las Vegas’ inaugural GM.

More from the wild, wild West:

  • Chicago GM Stan Bowman deserves a lot of credit for maintaining the Hawks presence as a Stanley Cup contender despite annual salary dumps, including this summer’s trades of Teuvo Teravainen and Andrew Shaw. His ability to constantly juggle his roster while remaining cap compliant is due to the constant infusion of affordable young talent the organization continues to find and develop. Mark Lazarus of the Chicago Sun Times profiles several youngsters who aim to make the Hawks roster for the 2016-17 season.
  • Addressing questions from the reader mailbag, Adam Vingan of the Tennessean speculates how the Predators will employ shiny new toy, P.K. Subban. Like many, I thought the Predators got the better end of the Subban-for-Shea Weber trade. Subban is an electrifying talent still in his prime at 27 while Weber would seem to be on the downside as he approaches his 31st birthday. Plus with another decade remaining on Weber’s contract with a cap hit in excess of $7.8MM per, the Canadiens took on a healthy amount of risk on the back end of his deal.
  • From the same mailbag, Vingan also deals with the same tough choices every NHL GM will have to face between now and the expansion draft; namely which quality NHL player or players will they leave exposed. The league certainly went out of its way to ensure Las Vegas will be able to add legitimate talent and a lot of teams will be in the unenviable position of allowing a good player to leave for nothing.
  • The Subban deal wasn’t the only blockbuster trade completed this summer and it may not even by the one most panned by critics. Nearly every pundit thought the Devils pilfered LW Taylor Hall from Edmonton with Adam Larsson the return going to the Oilers. But it may not be as bad as it seems. Bottom line is GM Peter Chiarelli absolutely needed to upgrade his defense corps and likely didn’t have a lot of palatable options with which to do so. Plenty of young, RFA defensemen have been rumored to possibly be available via trade but exactly none have been moved to date despite the abundant need for quality blueliners around the league. Plus, unlike those RFA’s who would need new contracts with salaries inflating, Larsson comes at the beginning of a freshly inked deal that pays him a shade over $4.1MM on average for the next five seasons. That cost control has value. Fact is, Chiarelli might have made the best deal possible at the time, even if it ends up being a net negative in the long run.

Free Agent Profile: Brandon Pirri

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Now that Shane Doan is officially off the market – although no one really expected the veteran winger to leave the desert – there are few options remaining for teams looking to add offense to their lineups. Yesterday we profiled five of the top forwards remaining in free agency that could conceivably fit the bill. One of those players, Brandon Pirri, noticably stuck out on that list due to his relative youth compared to his unemployed peers.

It’s not usually surprising that aging veterans whose best seasons are clearly in the rear view mirror might linger on the market well into the summer. In fact, many will either be forced to accept training camp invites or face the prospect of retirement. However, it’s exceedingly rare for one of the league’s most prolific goal scorers – based on rate stats – and who is still just 25-years-old, to be waiting for his next contract into the middle of July.

Pirri tallied 14 goals and 29 points last year in 61 games, splitting the season between Florida and Anaheim. The Ducks had acquired the 6-foot, 183-pound forward from the Panthers at the trade deadline in exchange for a sixth-round draft choice. The year prior, Pirri netted 22 goals in 61 contests, albeit with an amazingly low 2 assists, for the Panthers.

Over the last three seasons, Pirri has averaged 0.95 goals for every 60 minutes of ice time he sees at five-on-five play. That rate places him 30th in the NHL among all forwards who have suited up for a minimum of 120 games during that span. In terms of even-strength goal scoring prowess, Pirri is certainly among the best in the game.

Based on overall point-production, however, Pirri ranks just 203rd over the past three seasons in points-per-hour, due in large part to his 2014-15 tally of just two helpers. That ranking would seem to place him outside of a top-six role when it comes to offensive contributions.

Goal scoring is typically sought after and usually rewarded in free agency. Pirri’s continued presence on the open market is a bit of a mystery. It’s possible teams are scared off due to his low assists total from two seasons ago. Though it should be noted, if we remove that outlier from his career numbers, Pirri actually has two more assists than goals scored in his career and typically teams don’t pay as much attention to extreme statistical outliers.

Whatever the reason, it seems clear teams are hesitant about employing Pirri. He’s suited up for three NHL clubs over the last three campaigns and despite quality offensive numbers at the time of the trade, the Ducks obtained him from Florida for the lowly cost of a sixth-round draft pick. After the season, Anaheim elected not to qualify Pirri, a move that may have struck some as a bit surprising. He was eligible for arbitration and goals tend to be given extra weight when arbitrators decide on a player’s salary. It’s possible the Ducks wanted to avoid that process altogether. Nonetheless Pirri is free to sign with any team willing to give him a chance to show off his goal scoring acumen.

Potential Fits

New Jersey – The Devils finished last in the NHL in scoring this past season but have already added top-line LW Taylor Hall to the mix and expect their best returning offensive player, Mike Cammalleri, to be healthy at the outset of the upcoming campaign. A look at the club’s depth chart, courtesy of our partner site, Roster Resource, indicates the Devils have plenty of forward options so their interest in Pirri would likely be tepid at best.

Edmonton – Even though the Oilers have filled the hole they created when shipping the aforementioned Hall to Jersey by signing Milan Lucic, they could still use an upgrade over Mark Letestu at the third-line pivot position. Edmonton finished 25th in scoring and didn’t necessarily improve in that department by swapping out Hall for Lucic.

Columbus – If the Blue Jackets are ever able to offload winger Scott Hartnell they could be in the market for another goal scorer. But it’s possible the team would rather reinvest any savings from a Hartnell move into their defense as they have a number of quality forward prospects ready to make the jump to Columbus.

Los Angeles – Currently the Kings list Dwight King, Kyle Clifford and Dustin Brown as top-nine wingers. King’s career best in the goal socring department is 15 while Clifford has never tallied more than seven in any single season. Meanwhile, Brown’s days as a productive player capable of adequately manning a top-nine role may well be over. On a cheap contract the Kings could make sense for Pirri.

Expected Contract

Considering Anaheim passed on qualifying Pirri at just more than $1MM annually and given how late in the free agent season it is now, it’s not likely Pirri is going to find a deal representing much of a raise over the $925K he earned this past season. As such, a team like the Kings might be a terrific fit for Pirri on a one-year, make good deal at right around $1MM.

 

Atlantic Notes: Nylander, Ceci, Bruins Prospects

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As we head deeper into the summer and with many of the bigger name free agents off the board, teams now are focused primarily on locking up any unsigned RFAs they may have. Additionally, many clubs are kicking off their annual prospect development camps which gives us a look at the next wave of NHL talent and a sneak peek at a handful of youngsters who may have a chance to impact their parent club’s fortunes as soon as this season. Along those lines, here’s the latest out of the Eastern Conference’s Atlantic Division.

  • Mike Harrington of The Buffalo News describes the show Sabres’ 2016 first-round pick Alexander Nylander is putting on at the club’s development camp. Nylander, the brother of Toronto Maple Leaf forward William Nylander, was chosen 8th overall in the 2016 entry draft out of Mississauga of the OHL. However, as Harrington notes, unlike most players selected out of the CHL, Nylander is eligible to join the Sabres AHL affiliate in Rochester as opposed to returning to his junior team should he not crack the Buffalo roster out of training camp. This is due to the fact he was not selected in the CHL import draft and was loaned by his Swedish club to Mississauga.
  • Harrington’s colleague at The Buffalo News, Jack Goods, writes about Nylander’s World Junior’s linemate, Rasmus Asplund, who was Buffalo’s second-round choice in the 2016 entry draft. Asplund’s development was accelerated by playing against men in the SHL the last couple of years. Like Nylander, Buffalo will have the option of playing him down in Rochester but Asplund himself has said another year in Sweden may be best for his development.
  • In a piece for the Ottawa Citizen, Ken Warren looks at the RFA case for D Cody Ceci and opines that recent deals suggest the 22-year-old blueliner is in line for a big payday; particularly if the Senators want him around long term. Teams have been paying big for quality defensemen, both on the UFA market and when retaining their own players, and Ceci certainly should land a sizable deal this summer.
  • CSNNE.com’s Joe Haggerty lists a few of the prospects at development camp who are expected to challenge for regular roles for the Boston Bruins in 2016-2017. Specifically, with the team in need of blueline depth, Brandon Carlo and Matt Grzelcyk, will be given a chance to make the team out of training camp. Up front, Jake DeBrusk and Danton Heinen, are mentioned as “dark horses,” in the push for a roster spot.
  • Writing for Bleacher Report, Lyle Richardson lists the 10 worst contracts for the upcoming season. The Atlantic Division placed four players on the list, the largest representation of any of the NHL’s four divisions. F Matt Moulson of the Sabres ranks 10th on Richardson’s list, with G Jimmy Howard (6th) of Detroit and F Ryan Callahan (4th) of Tampa Bay also making the cut. While I think his inclusion on this list might be a tad unfair as he’s still a quality goaltender, the emergence of Petr Mrazek between the Motown pipes has turned Howard into an expensive back-up and the Wings could look to move him ahead of next year’s expansion draft. Topping the list is Senators defenseman Dion Phaneuf, who has five years remaining on a deal that comes with an AAV of $7MM.

Hurricanes, Rask Agree To Six-Year Deal

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Carolina Hurricanes Executive Vice President and General Manager Ron Francis has announced the club has signed RFA Victor Rask to a six-year, $24MM contract, according to the team’s website. Rask, the club’s second-round selection, 42nd overall, in the 2011 entry draft, finished second on the Hurricanes in scoring with 48 points.

The $4MM AAV represents a nice bump in pay for the two-year veteran pivot who is coming off his ELC and pocketed $832.5K in 2015-16, including performance bonuses.

Rask ranked third on the club in goals scored (21) and led in power-play points, netting 18. Rask will likely slot in as one of Carolina’s top two centers with Jordan Staal filling the other spot.

The Canes boast a quality young defense core led by Justin Faulk and 19-year-old Noah Hanifin, and could have designs on a playoff spot this year. Carolina hung in the wildcard race longer than most pundits expected this past season and with the improvements expected from the young talent on the roster, it’s not inconceivable they could crash the playoff party in 2016-17. To do so, however, the team will have to improve upon their 27th overall ranking in goals scored and Rask will be one of the players expected to help in that regard.

Rask’s signing now leaves D Ryan Murphy as the only significant RFA remaining for Francis and the Hurricanes to come to terms with.

 

Full Salary Arbitration Hearing Schedule

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The NHLPA released the full schedule of arbitration hearings today, which will not include Jordan Weal, after he re-signed with the Philadelphia Flyers earlier today. Teams and players can still negotiate up until the hearing, and many will reach agreements before going to arbitration. For more information on the arbitration process, check out part one of our full guide.  Here is the full schedule:

PLAYER ELECTED FILINGS

Arizona Coyotes
Michael Stone – August 4, 2016

Colorado Avalanche
Tyson Barrie – July 29, 2016
Mikhail Grigorenko – July 22, 2016

Detroit Red Wings
Danny DeKeyser – July 28, 2016

Minnesota Wild
Jordan Schroeder – July 27, 2016

Nashville Predators
Calle Jarnkrok – August 4, 2016
Petter Granberg – August 3, 2016

New York Rangers
Kevin Hayes – July 27, 2016
Chris Kreider – July 22, 2016
Dylan McIlrath – July 21, 2016
J.T. Miller – August 2, 2016

Ottawa Senators
Mike Hoffman – August 4, 2016

Philadelphia Flyers
Brandon Manning – August 2, 2016
Brayden Schenn – July 25, 2016

St. Louis Blues
Jaden Schwartz – July 20, 2016

Tampa Bay Lightning
Alex Killorn – July 20, 2016
Vladislav Namestnikov – July 29, 2016

Toronto Maple Leafs
Frank Corrado – July 26, 2016
Peter Holland – July 25, 2016
Martin Marincin – August 2, 2016

Washington Capitals
Marcus Johansson – July 20, 2016

CLUB ELECTED FILINGS

Detroit Red Wings

Petr Mrazek – July 27, 2016

Top-Line Options Remaining In Free Agency

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For many teams, free agency is a place to find a player or two to slot into your top two lines, to supplement the core you already have in place.  Edmonton went out and got Milan Lucic, to add some veteran toughness while replacing the outgoing offensive contribution of Taylor Hall. Vancouver added Loui Eriksson in a questionable move for a team who hasn’t quite decided what direction they’re headed in, and Buffalo brought on Kyle Okposo to ride shotgun with their young talent up front.

Now that the madness has died down, the market for these top-six players is extremely thin, with only a few names having established themselves there in the past.  With Shane Doan surely re-signing with the Coyotes, and Patrik Elias looking as though it’s either Devils or retirement, two of the most well known names among this group aren’t going anywhere.  Here are the other possibilities for a team to add to their top-six:

(number in parentheses represents ranking on our Top 50 UFAs)

  1. Jiri Hudler (18) – Though Hudler is now 32-years old and took a significant step back last season, he still represents one of the better second-line options available. His 46 points in 2015-16 split between the Flames and Panthers were a disappointing total for a player coming off a 31-goal, 76 point season but still ranked him right alongside players like Andrew Ladd (46 points, $38.5MM) and David Backes (45 points, $30MM).
  2. Kris Versteeg (25) – While Versteeg is probably better suited as a third-liner on a good team, he has shown the ability to move up in the lineup consistently in the past.  A three-time twenty goal scorer, Versteeg has scored at least 34 points in each of his seven healthy seasons.  He can play either wing, and brings a level of physicality to his game as well.
  3. Radim Vrbata (27) – Vrbata is clearly on the downswing of his career, having put up just 27 points and a whopping -30 mark last season.  Now 35, he’ll look to sign a cheap deal and could be a nice value signing for a team pressed against the cap. Remember, this is a guy who has over 250 career NHL goals, and is just one season removed from the second 30-goal season of his career.
  4. Alex Tanguay (33) – Though he’s now 37, Tanguay continues to produce like a second-line center, putting up another 35 point campaign despite having a much reduced role after a trade to Arizona.  For a team looking to shelter their young forwards, a veteran like Tanguay can provide some offensive punch on a cheap, short-term deal. He’ll likely break 900 points in what has been an excellent career for the former Avalanche stalwart.
  5. Brandon Pirri (NR) – Despite Pirri’s reputation as a bottom-six forward, some teams might see the former Panther as a second-line option, due to his previous goal scoring ability.  Pirri has potted 36 goals over the past two seasons, including 22 in 2014-15. The problem is that he’s racked up just 17 assists over the same time.  He was an outstanding scorer in his AHL career, and is still just 25-years old, meaning that taking a shot on him might not be the worst gamble among the remaining options.

Snapshots: Burrows, Francis, Arbitration

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When the 2015-16 season came to a close, it seemed a sure bet that the Vancouver Canucks were going to buy out the final year of Alex Burrows’ four-year, $18MM contract. He’d seen his play dwindle, and GM Jim Benning was clear that he wanted to move in a younger direction, all but pointing the finger at the 35-year old.  But, as the first buyout window came and went, it was Chris Higgins and not Burrows that found his contract voided.

Now, Burrows says that he’s ready for the new season and is challenging himself to be better.  In talking to Ben Kuzma of The Province, Burrows provided great insight into his preparation and mindset heading into this season, including making it clear that he will relish a leadership and mentor opportunity with the younger players this season.

He’s even open to being a healthy scratch on occasion: “There are so many worse things in life than being a healthy scratch or they put a young guy in the lineup ahead of you. My wife is healthy and my kids are healthy and it puts things in perspective.”  Here’s some more from around the league:

  • After years of floundering without a clear direction, Ryan Kennedy of The Hockey News opines that the Carolina Hurricanes are finally doing a re-build the right way. With a full stable of young defensemen they’ve built through the draft, the team now has the option of dealing from a position of depth – one that is scarce throughout the league. Kennedy mentions the recent rumors of David Krejci from Boston as a possible target for one of their young blueliners.
  • In hiring Brad Shaw as an assistant coach last month, the Columbus Blue Jackets added an experienced name that can help build and develop their defense like he did in St. Louis. When asked by Rob Mixer of NHL.com why he chose Columbus, Shaw made it clear that players like the recently extended Seth Jones, and second overall pick Ryan Murray were a key factor: “The young defensemen here played a big part in my decision, no doubt about it. The biggest challenge in working with young players is trying to pin down and have a clear picture of what the final product will look like when they’re at their best in the NHL. Every guy is different.”
  • After Philadelphia signed Jordan Weal earlier today, three of the twenty-five players who are headed to arbitration (through their own filing or the team’s) have now come to terms before their hearings, as General Fanager tweets. You can follow all the arbitration cases on their tracker, as well as up-to-date depth charts at Roster Resource.

Are Offer Sheets A Thing Of The Past?

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This summer’s restricted free agent (RFA) list is quite impressive, with nine 20-goal scorers and 13 players who scored more than 40 points last season. Forwards Sean Monahan, Johnny Gaudreau, Nikita Kucherov, Marcus Johansson, and Mike Hoffman headline the forwards; while Hampus Lindholm, Tyson Barrie, Rasmus Ristolainen, Danny DeKeyser, and Jacob Trouba are the top defensemen. Detroit’s Petr Mrazek is the only big-name RFA goalie remaining.  Most of the above players are eligible for offer sheets.

According to Elliotte Friedman, compensation for offer sheets is as follows:

  • Less than $1.239MM (average annual value of contract) – Nothing;
  • $1.239-$1.878MM – Third-round pick;
  • $1.878-$3.755MM – Second-round pick;
  • $3.755-$5.633MM – First and third-round picks;
  • $5.633-$7.510MM – First, second and third-round picks;
  • $7.510-$9.388MM – Two first, a second and third-round picks;
  • Over $9.388MM – Four first-round picks.

With this in mind, teams could target rival teams top young players, with both outcomes having their benefits to the aggressive team: either they acquire a good young player for only picks, or they mess up a rival’s salary cap by inflating the player’s salary.

The threat of an offer sheet was evident last summer, with the Blackhawks trading Brandon Saad to the Blue Jackets and the Bruins trading Dougie Hamilton to the Flames. Both players were pending RFAs and in line for a big raise before being shipped out to prevent their teams from being subjected to an offer sheet. However, this summer has been the complete opposite, with teams taking their time to sign the above-mentioned stars, apparently not overly worried about offer sheets.

Why could that be?

The last time an NHL team successfully acquired a player via an offer sheet was in 2007. Then-Oilers-GM Kevin Lowe signed Anaheim Ducks LW Dustin Penner to a 4-year, $21.5MM contract. The Ducks did not match, and the Oilers forked over their first three rounds of draft picks in 2008. Penner enjoyed varying degrees of success in three-and-a-half seasons in Edmonton before being traded to Los Angeles where he won a Stanley Cup. The Penner offer sheet is most fondly remembered by then-Ducks-GM Brian Burke and Lowe’s escalating war of words which nearly lead to a fist-fight in a rented barn in Lake Placid. Commissioner Gary Bettman was forced to have a conference call with the two GMs to get them to stop.

It’s perhaps this sort of reaction that prevents GMs from making offer sheets. Earlier this summer, ESPN and TSN reporter Pierre LeBrun quoted an unnamed GM as threatening opposing GMs with an offer sheet per year for the next ten years as retribution for a potential offer sheet. There appears to be an unspoken agreement between GMs to leave RFAs alone. There hasn’t been an offer sheet tendered since 2013 when Colorado matched Calgary’s contract with Ryan O’Reilly, saving the Flames from an embarrassing and costly mistake.

So despite several fan bases calling for offer sheets, it seems unlikely that any players will be switching sweaters this summer because of one.

Are NHL Super Teams Possible?

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Puck Daddy’s Ryan Lambert writes that the idea of an NHL super team in the mold of the new NBA craze is simply unattainable due to the economics and setup of the league. Lambert shows that while an NBA team can sign a young, future hall of fame player who can immediately impact a team, hockey does not have the same luxury. Lambert uses Sidney Crosby as an example. Should Crosby end up in Detroit, his impact would be felt, but would not guarantee Detroit as a Cup contender. Instead, it would take other pieces to solidify such a dominating force.

The setup of the sports are different as well. Lambert shows that a Pittsburgh team comprised of Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Phil Kessel and Kris Letang struggled at times to get past teams that were not nearly as deep with talent. Lambert even went as as far to show “death lineups” of players who dominated while on the same side. Though they wore the same jerseys, their impact was different because in hockey, it’s rare that all of those players will appear on the ice at the exact same time. Of those six death lineups, five won a Cup. Only the 2012-13 Bruins, who lost in the Stanley Cup Final to the Blackhawks (also another death lineup), fell short.

Lambert doesn’t discount that having eight high end, perennial all-star caliber players could heavily favor a team. It’s just that the restrictive nature of the salary cap prevents it from happening. At best, Lambert writes, a team can have four or five high end players at a time.

Perhaps the bigger issue revolves around finances and marketing.

The financial structure of the league is significantly different than the NBA. Lambert shows that the league revenues have remained flat, and shows a gate revenue that is all but maxed out. The NBA, on the other hand, has seen a significant increase in revenue and also enjoy lucrative television deals. Additionally, the Canadian dollar, according to a Globe and Mail report, may have cost the NHL nearly $200MM in revenue. Though the numbers are from 2014, Fox Sports wrote up a report, along with graphics, that show the stark discrepancy in revenue between the NHL and other major sports.

Where Lambert really hits the point home is how the sport is marketed. It’s no secret that hockey is a niche sport. As parity has reigned during the salary cap era, the differences between a top team and a bottom feeder, while sometimes large, still afford the ability for an upset to occur.

Whether it’s fair or unfair, the lesser known teams in a Stanley Cup Final could be horrendous for the league as well. The idea of a Tampa Bay-San Jose Final this year would have wreaked havoc on ratings. Even though both teams boast high caliber players, they are both “non-traditional” markets that outside of their respective area, would generate little interest. Contrast that with a possible Pittsburgh-Chicago Final and it underscores the issue with the NHL: lack of familiarity in non-established markets.

As Lambert pointed out, Steph Curry jerseys are everywhere and his presence on television is a must see event. Ovechkin? Crosby? McDavid? Toews? Sure, hockey fans know them. But ask the average sports fan where Conor McDavid plays, and you might get a blank stare. Some might struggle to even say who he is.

Until revenues explode and familiarity is bred, superteams, whether they are a good or bad thing, are just not possible with the structure of today’s NHL.

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