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Afternoon Notes: Shattenkirk, Dobson, Kopitar, Sharpe

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Boston Bruins defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk has been fined $2,734.38 for unsportsmanlike conduct in last night’s game against the Pittsburgh Penguins (Twitter link). It is the maximum allowable fine under the collective bargaining agreement. Shattenkirk earned the fine when he reached over the bench and slashed Bunting on the wrist as he was skating by, after Bunting tripped Linus Ullmark. Shattenkirk wasn’t assessed a penalty during the game and went on to score Boston’s third goal in their eventual 6-4 victory.

This is just the second run-in Shattenkirk has had with the Department of Player Safety in his 950 career games, with his last punishment being a two-game suspension for charging Los Angeles Kings defenseman Kevin Gravel in March of 2017.

Shattenkirk has managed four points across his last five games, heating up at the perfect time. Boston will be glad he avoided suspension, as they chase the top spot in the Atlantic Division with two games left in the season.

Other notes from around the league:

  • The New York Islanders may need to finish their season without top defender Noah Dobson, who is day-to-day with an upper-body injury per head coach Patrick Roy and Newsday’s Andrew Gross (Twitter link). Roy also shared that forward Kyle MacLean felt sick after practice, though he’s still expected to play tomorrow. The Islanders have two games remaining in their season, and could technically still lose their playoff spot – if they drop both games and both the Detroit Red Wings and Washington Capitals win-out. Robert Bortuzzo will step back into the lineup in Dobson’s absence.
  • Los Angeles Kopitar captain Anze Kopitar missed the team’s practice once again, remaining day-to-day with an undisclosed injury that held him out of the team’s Saturday night win over the Anaheim Ducks, per Zach Dooley of LA Kings Insider (Twitter link). Dooley adds that the team doesn’t seem concerned about Kopitar’s availability. That’s certainly good news, with the future Hall of Famer certain to be a main factor in their postseason success, after posting 26 goals and 70 points in 79 games this season. The Kings opted to ice seven defensemen in Kopitar’s absence, returning Jacob Moverare to the lineup. They could continue that approach in their final two games of the season, though Arthur Kaliyev is their extra forward should they want to ice four full lines.
  • The Toronto Marlies have signed defenseman Chas Sharpe to a two-year, minor-league contract set to begin in 2024-25 (Twitter link). Sharpe, 20, joins the team as an undrafted free-agent, having spent the last four seasons with the Mississauga Steelheads. He recorded 19 goals and 53 points in 67 games this season, and served as Mississauga’s captain.

Metropolitan Notes: Dobson, Sandin, Nybeck

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The Islanders were without Noah Dobson for most of Thursday’s victory over Montreal and he will miss at least one more as the team announced (Twitter link) that the defenseman is listed as day-to-day with an upper-body injury; he wasn’t in uniform this afternoon against the Rangers.  Dobson is in the middle of a breakout year as he sits second on the team in scoring with 10 goals and 60 assists in 79 appearances; his assist total is tied for fifth among all NHL rearguards.  On top of the offensive production, the 24-year-old is also logging a career-high 24:31 per night so his absence is a crucial one with the Isles right in the thick of the battle for a playoff spot.

More from the Metropolitan:

  • Capitals defenseman Rasmus Sandin didn’t skate on Friday due to his upper-body injury and it’s possible he won’t return before the end of the season next week, notes Bailey Johnson of The Washington Post (Twitter link). The 24-year-old was injured on Sunday against Ottawa.  Sandin has had a good first full season with the Caps, recording 23 points in 68 games while averaging a career-best 21:07 per night.  That helped earn Sandin a five-year, $23MM extension last month.
  • Hurricanes prospect Zion Nybeck has changed teams in Sweden as Oskarshamn in Sweden’s Allsvenskan announced that they’ve signed the forward to a one-year deal. The 21-year-old was a fourth-round pick back in 2020 (115th overall) but the majority of his time professionally has been spent in the second division.  This past season, Nybeck had 17 goals and 27 assists in 52 games with AIK, good for second on the team in scoring.  Carolina has until June 1st to sign Nybeck and the fact he’s staying in Sweden suggests that the Hurricanes won’t be doing so.

Metro Notes: Joseph, Islanders, Gudbranson, Kakko

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Having been on the injured reserve since November 18th, it appears that defenseman for the Pittsburgh Penguins, Pierre-Olivier Joseph, is healthy enough to return, as the team announced they have sent Joseph on a conditioning loan to their AHL affiliate, the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins. He will now be in the AHL for a maximum of 14 days, meaning he will have the opportunity to play in five games in Wilkes-Barre/Scranton.

Last season, Joseph looked to have finally cracked the Penguins roster full-time, playing in 75 games and scoring five goals and 21 points. He did spend a couple of games factoring into Pittsburgh’s powerplay, while also providing solid possession and defensive metrics as well.

With fellow defenseman Chad Ruhwedel set to miss a few weeks with a lower-body injury, the Penguins could certainly use the return of Joseph as soon as possible. Even upon return, with Pittsburgh already carrying a more than adequate top-four in their defensive core, the return of Joseph will allow the team to be more comfortable giving their bottom-pairing important minutes of the game.

Other notes:

  • Although the two did play in the New York Islanders’ most recent game only three days ago, forward Brock Nelson and defenseman Noah Dobson were absent in yesterday’s practice and were listed as day-to-day with undisclosed concerns. Nevertheless, the team announced today that both players would be in the lineup for tonight’s game, while also indicating that defenseman Sebastian Aho is close to making his return as well. It is positive news for New York, who even though it might only be for a game or two, can not afford to miss two of their better offensive players.
  • Team reporter for the Columbus Blue Jackets, Jeff Svoboda, reports that defenseman Erik Gudbranson will be a game-time decision for the team’s game tonight against the Los Angeles Kings, as he is suffering from an illness. Mostly known as a defensive-style defenseman, even with less ice time per night, Gudbranson is producing better offensively this year for the Blue Jackets, scoring two goals and nine points in 26 games.
  • Missing the last three games for the New York Rangers with an undisclosed injury, it does not appear forward Kaapo Kakko is close to a return. After practice today, Mollie Walker of the New York Post reported that Kakko has not yet resumed skating. After seemingly having a breakout season last year, Kakko is once again failing to produce up to his draft selection, scoring one goal and three points through 20 games this season.

Remaining Restricted Free Agents

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August 28: The list below has been updated to reflect the remaining restricted free agents as of August 28, 2022.

August 12: We’re now coming up on one month since the start of free agency, and two months until the start of the 2022-23 regular season. Teams have mostly completed their offseason business, though a handful still have big issues to solve at some point in the next few weeks.

The arbitration schedule has finished and many of the front offices are slowing down for the rest of the summer in preparation for a long upcoming campaign. That is, except for the teams that still have restricted free agents to sign.

According to CapFriendly, 29 players who received qualifying offers are still unsigned, though that list includes a few New York Islanders minor leaguers who very well could have already agreed to contracts. The Islanders do also have Noah Dobson, who is among the most important names on the list after his breakout 51-point campaign.

Dobson, 22, looks as though he will be a building block for the team through the next decade, and seems positioned for a long-term contract at some point in the near future.

Beyond New York, many eyes are on the Dallas Stars, where Jason Robertson and Jake Oettinger remain unsigned. Other than Miro Heiskanen, there may not be any more important players on the Stars roster than the star forward and emerging goaltender. Both would command hefty cap hits on long-term deals, and given the $10MM in cap space remaining for Dallas, may end up with bridge contracts when things are all said and done.

There are other full-time NHLers among the group too. Alexander Romanov, Kirby Dach, Filip Zadina, Ryan McLeod, and Alex Formenton all played at least 70 games this season for their respective clubs, and are without deals to this point. The full list is below:

Arizona Coyotes

Barrett Hayton

Calgary Flames

Adam Ruzicka

Buffalo Sabres

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Dallas Stars

Jake Oettinger
Jason Robertson

Edmonton Oilers

Ryan McLeod

Los Angeles Kings

Michael Anderson
Sean Durzi

Montreal Canadiens

Kirby Dach
Cayden Primeau

New York Islanders

Parker Wotherspoon

Ottawa Senators

Erik Brannstrom
Alex Formenton

Philadelphia Flyers

Hayden Hodgson

San Jose Sharks

Jonah Gadjovich

Seattle Kraken

Cale Fleury

Toronto Maple Leafs

Rasmus Sandin

Vegas Golden Knights

Nicolas Hague

Of note, most of these players are eligible to sign an offer sheet, if they choose to. Only Romanov and Cates are what are called 10.2(c) players, which are not eligible to negotiate with any team other than their own.

There are also several players like Josef Korenar, who are technically still restricted free agents relative to the NHL but have signed overseas. These rights will be held by their team after issuing qualifying offers but there is no need to list them with the above group.

Any of these restricted free agents must sign a contract before December 1 to be eligible to play in the NHL this season. Though training camp provides a soft deadline, that is the actual threshold that negotiations need to be completed by, or else a player could miss an entire year.

New York Islanders Sign Noah Dobson, Alex Romanov, Kieffer Bellows

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Per a series of team announcements Monday morning, the New York Islanders have finally locked up a trio of restricted free agents in defenseman Noah Dobson (link), defenseman Alexander Romanov (link), and forward Kieffer Bellows (link). Dobson and Romanov have signed three-year deals, while Bellows has signed a one-year deal.

The Athletic’s Kevin Kurz reports Dobson’s deal carries a $4MM AAV, while TSN’s Chris Johnston reports Romanov’s deal has a $2.5MM cap hit. CapFriendly reports Bellows’ contract carries a $1.2MM cap hit, all in base salary.

Dobson, 22, enjoyed a career season in 2021-22, something that couldn’t be said for much of the team. The team’s 12th overall selection in 2018 displayed his full potential, leading the team’s blueline with 51 points in 80 games while averaging over 21 minutes a night. His defensive game has remained solid throughout his three-year career so far, but it was his offensive vision and confidence that spearheaded his breakout this year. He was never drafted to be a defensive stalwart, but not being a liability in his own end of the ice certainly helps his case to continue developing into a superstar defenseman.

Montreal Canadiens defenseman Alexander Romanov (27) avoids a hit by Washington Capitals forward Garnet Hathaway (21) during the third period at the Bell Centre.Romanov, however, was drafted to be that defensive stalwart, and he took a real step towards that last season in Montreal despite playing in a porous system. Acquired this offseason in exchange for the 13th overall pick, Islanders general manager Lou Lamoriello gets a great value signing here with a three-year term on that $2.5MM cap hit. Romanov showed that he can be a dependable defensive presence while playing top-four minutes, a role he’ll undoubtedly continue on the Island this season. A stark upgrade over the play of Zdeno Chara and Andy Greene, Romanov could likely play with Dobson on the team’s second pairing, one that could end up being their best one in a few seasons’ time. He set career-highs in 2021-22 with 79 games played, three goals, 10 assists, 13 points, and an average time on ice of 20:24.

Bellows has struggled to crack the lineup on a nightly basis under former head coach Barry Trotz, and he’s hoping a new face behind the bench will get him some more playing time. His offensive numbers finally showed great promise at the NHL level last season, posting 19 points in 45 games despite playing under 12 minutes a night. He’ll compete with veterans like Matt Martin and Zach Parise for spots in the lineup, as he’ll try to work his way into a consistent bottom-six role (with some power play time, hopefully).

All three players will again be restricted free agents at the end of their contracts.

Latest On New York Islanders Offseason

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It was no secret that in order to get better after last season’s disappointment, the New York Islanders needed to find a way to add scoring and get younger on the blueline. They managed to do one of those things, acquiring 22-year-old defenseman Alexander Romanov from the Montreal Canadiens in exchange for their 2022 first-round pick. However, the team was unable to, at least so far, address its lackluster offense. The Islanders had been connected to star free agents Johnny Gaudreau, who ultimately signed with the division-rival Columbus Blue Jackets, and Nazem Kadri who recently signed with the Calgary Flames.

Today on NHL Network, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman discussed the Islanders with Bill Pidto, saying that while he believes they were interested in Kadri, they were never able to create the cap space to make it work. Interestingly, the Islanders actually have the fourth most salary cap space available according to CapFriendly, with just under $11.2MM available. However, the team does need to re-sign the recently-acquired Romanov, forward Kieffer Bellows, and breakout defenseman Noah Dobson. Between those three, it could command a large portion of their space. Though it may not take all of it, it would most likely bring them below the $7MM needed to, at the very least, match the offer Kadri accepted in Calgary.

To create that space, Lou Lamoriello could have opted to try to move one, or both of, wingers Josh Bailey and Anthony Beauvillier. Though both are solid contributors on Long Island, moving their $5MM or $4.15MM cap hits, respectively, could have created the space necessary to sign a dynamic player like Kadri. Given the cost for Calgary to trade away Sean Monahan, who had just one year left at $6.375MM, the price for the Islanders to move one of their forwards may have been too steep to make it worthwhile. Another option could have been to move goaltender Semyon Varlamov, who carries a $5MM AAV, but is playing behind star netminder Ilya Sorokin. However, Lamoriello made clear his intention to keep the veteran netminder.

Also of note, Friedman added that he does believe deals with Romanov and Dobson are already done, saying he believes Dobson’s deal “is a big number.” Friedman also believes Romanov’s contract could come somewhere in the $3MM AAV range. Having the deals done, but not announced, is in keeping with Lamoriello’s previous dealings, including last summer’s rather late announcements, most notably of a Kyle Palmieri contract. Although Friedman didn’t mention Bellows as having an agreed-upon deal, it is worth noting the winger was arbitration-eligible, but neither him nor the Islanders filed. This surely doesn’t mean a deal is done, but would be a curious choice if nothing had been agreed upon (or could simply indicate very amicable talks between the two).

Injury Updates: Stastny, Dobson, Barkov, Beagle

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The Jets are hoping to have center Paul Stastny back in the lineup on Friday against Minnesota, relays Postmedia’s Scott Billeck.  The veteran has been out for a little more than two weeks due to a lower-body injury which put a strong start to his season on hold; Stastny has four goals and four assists in 11 games in the early going while logging over 18 minutes a game.  Winnipeg is set to begin a road back-to-back set so it’s possible that Stastny only suits up for one of those contests if they want to ere on the side of caution.

Other injury news from around the NHL:

  • The COVID situation for the Islanders is bad enough at the moment but they got some bad news on the injury front as well as blueliner Noah Dobson is dealing with a lower-body injury, mentions Mollie Walker of the New York Post. It has been a disappointing start for the 21-year-old who has been quiet offensively with just four assists in 14 games while being on the fringes of the top four on their back end.  Dobson is a pending restricted free agent and any extended absence – there’s no timeline for a return just yet – would certainly hurt his chances of a long-term deal this summer.
  • The Panthers will be without top center Aleksander Barkov for at least another two weeks, notes David Wilson of the Miami Herald. Barkov was able to avoid needing surgery following an injury on a collision with Scott Mayfield last week and at the time, interim head coach Andrew Brunette was only able to provide a week-to-week timeline.
  • Coyotes center Jay Beagle has been ruled out for the rest of the week at a minimum due to a lower-body injury, per Craig Morgan of PHNX Sports (Twitter link). The team is awaiting further test results to know how long he’ll be out for.  The 36-year-old has played in 19 games so far this season and hasn’t recorded a point yet but has won nearly 60% of his faceoffs.

New York Islanders Facing Severe Roster Crunch

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After a slow summer, the month of September has belonged to GM Lou Lamoriello and the New York Islanders. On September 1, the team announced new contracts for forwards Anthony Beauvillier, Casey Cizikas, and Kyle Palmieri and goaltender Ilya Sorokin. That same day, they hinted that veteran UFA Zach Parise will also be joining the team and have provided even more evidence of that fact since, despite no formal announcement. This week, the team made a flurry of depth signings, adding forwards Andy Andreoff, Cole Bardreau, Otto Koivula, and Dmytro Timashov and defenseman Paul LaDue, while inviting veteran blue liner Erik Gustafsson to training camp. They then capped off the week with Saturday’s high-profile signing of Zdeno Chara. 

This is all well and good on its face, but the reality is that there are only so many roster spots to go around. Interestingly enough, the Islanders should be okay with the salary cap. CapFriendly currently projects the team to be over the cap, but using only $4.48MM of their $6MM in LTIR relief from Johnny Boychuk’s career-ending injury. While this projection does not include the undisclosed terms for Chara and Parise, it is based on a 23-man roster and those veterans are expected to have minimum base salary, incentive-laden contract. However, therein lies the problem. CapFriendly already has New York roster at the maximum 23 players, but that does not include Chara and Parise, nor does it include unsigned restricted free agent Kieffer Bellows. Something has to give.

So who could be on the chopping block? It isn’t a long list. Many of the Islanders’ core players are returning from a run to the semifinals last season and are locked into a roster spot. In fact, the team may have its full group of 12 starting forwards already in place. Anders Lee, Mathew Barzal, Brock Nelson, Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Josh Bailey, Oliver Wahlstrom, Palmieri, Beauvillier, and Parise expect to be in top-nine roles, while one of the league’s best fourth lines of Cal Clutterbuck, Matt Martin, and Cizikas will stick together as well. On the blue line, Adam Pelech and Ryan Pulock will man the top pair and Scott Mayfield will be back on the second pair. Young righty Noah Dobson and the veteran lefties, Chara and Andy Greene, are at least locks for a roster spot, if not a starting role. In net, there is no question that Semyon Varlamov and Sorokin will be the NHL tandem.

This leaves three roster spots up for grabs and CapFriendly has five names currently projected for the roster: forwards Ross Johnston, Leo Komarov, and Richard Panik and defensemen Sebastian Aho and the recently-signed LaDue. They don’t expect veteran defenseman Thomas Hickey to crack the roster, but the oft-buried blue liner will have a chance to battle for a spot as well. There is also the unsigned Bellows to consider, as well as the potential for Gustafsson’s PTO to be successful. A top prospect like forward Simon Holmstrom or defensemen Robin Salo, Bode Wilde, or Samuel Bolduc may also force the Isles’ hand. While excellent depth is a good problem to have, the issue for the Islanders is that all of these players (minus the prospects) are not waivers-exempt. They have seven or eight good veteran players to evaluate for three roster spots and no guarantee that the four or five that do not make the cut will not be lost on waiver.

Bellows, especially, is a risk. Assuming the 23-year-old is eventually signed, the Islanders will be tempting fate if they try to sneak him through waivers. A 2016 first-round pick, Bellows NHL action has been limited, but the noted sniper does have five goals in his 22 games. A number of teams would be willing to take a shot on his scoring potential. Johnston and Komarov have cleared waivers in the past, but both are now in the final years of their current contracts making them more attractive on waivers. Johnston is a strong defensive forward and physical presence and Komarov is a streaky, but effective two-way presence; both of which have value. Komarov’s $3MM cap hit could make him the most likely to clear waivers though. Panik, who was just acquired by the Islanders this summer, has more recent scoring results than any of the other names competing for a forward spot and has half of his salary retained, making him another dangerous waiver exposure even with two years on his current contract. Of the three available roster spots, no more than two are likely to go to the forward position, so at least two of these forwards will either need to be tested on waivers – and potentially lost for free – or otherwise traded.

The situation on defense is slightly easier to manage. Aho, LaDue, and Hickey have all cleared waivers recently. In fact, LaDue spent all of last season in the AHL and is not much of a risk to be claimed on waivers. There is some more concern with Aho, 25, and Hickey, whose $2.5MM salary is more palatable to other teams in his final year. Both spent all of last season with the Islanders, but for both to do so again it would mean sacrificing one of the aforementioned forwards who are on the chopping block. If Gustafsson does earn a contract with New York from his PTO, that would likely mean that he is earning a roster spot, as the power play specialist would draw interest from a number of teams at a minimum salary, especially with a strong preseason performance.

While it has seemed like the Islanders have been loading up in recent weeks, Lamoriello still has some work to do. Lamoriello may need to explore the trade market for Bellows if he cannot re-sign him or cannot commit to a roster spot for the high-ceiling forward. He may then need to test the trade waters for several of his other players as well, lest he lose them on waivers for nothing. One way or another, as strong as the Islanders’ depth looks right now, it is highly unlikely that all of these players will still be with the organization when the season begins. Which are retained and which are lost could come back to play a big role in the team’s success this season.

New York Islanders Re-Sign Andy Greene

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The NHL’s pre-Expansion Draft roster freeze had ended and it appeared as if the New York Islanders had gotten themselves into quite the pickle. After trading Nick Leddy earlier this week, the Isles were left with just two defensemen who fit the exposure requirements for expansion – 27+ games played this year or 54+ games played over the past two years, plus term remaining on their current contract – and one of those two had to be exposed. However, those two defensemen were Ryan Pulock and Scott Mayfield, who alongside RFA Adam Pelech were expected to be protected from expansion. After all, that was the main catalyst of the Leddy trade.

Well, long after the deadline had passed it has now been confirmed that the Islanders did find a solution to their problem, with the timing suggesting this was perhaps a fallback plan in the event they could not add an exposure-eligible defenseman. The Athletic’s Arthur Staple was the first to report that New York has extended veteran defenseman Andy Greene with a one-year, $1MM contract. The deal carries a minimum $750K salary and a $250K signing bonus. Most importantly, Greene is now under contract and has more than enough games to his credit this past season to serve as the Islanders’ expansion exposure prop.

Greene, who will turn 39 early this season, is still a good player and a great locker room presence. However, re-signing the veteran may not have been GM Lou Lamoriello’s plan, even with a relatively inexpensive deal. Greene saw a 12-year low in ice time last season as his offense dried up, his puck movement suffered, and he was less disruptive on defense. Greene is still a smart, capable defenseman, especially in a third pair role, but at his age and ability his ceiling is low. Meanwhile, the Islanders have young defensemen like Noah Dobson, Sebastian Aho, Bode Wilde, Grant Hutton, Samuel Bolduc, Robin Salo, and more who are pushing for NHL opportunity and ice time. The Isles will have to toe the line between not blocking those young players and not upsetting the locker room by benching or demoting Greene, a veteran leader.

Expansion Primer: New York Islanders

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Over the next few weeks, we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, who will likely warrant protection, and which ones may be on the block to avoid the risk of losing them for nothing? Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4:00 PM CDT on July 17th. The full eligibility rules can be found here, while CapFriendly has an expansion tool to make your own lists.

In 2017, the New York Islanders were one of the few lucky teams not to lose a player in the Expansion Draft, as the Vegas Golden Knights selected free agent goaltender Jean-Francois Berube. They paid dearly for that privilege though, trading a first-round pick, second-round pick, and defenseman Jake Bischoff (as well as the contract of Mikhail Grabovski) in order for Vegas to take Berube. The team was also the only one to protect three forwards and five defensemen.

This time around, the Islanders are unlikely to pay a heavy price to keep their unprotected players from being selected in the NHL Expansion Draft and they are also expected to go with a more orthodox protection scheme. Will they lose a good player? Sure. However, two-time reigning GM of the Year winner Lou Lamoriello has left his team in decent shape as expansion approaches.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:
Josh Bailey, Mathew Barzal, Anthony Beauvillier, Kieffer Bellows, Cal Clutterbuck, Austin Czarnik, Michael Dal Colle, Jordan Eberle, Ross Johnston, Otto Koivula, Leo Komarov, Andrew Ladd, Anders Lee, Matt Martin, Brock Nelson, Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Dmytro Timashov

Defense:
Sebastian Aho, Thomas Hickey, Nick Leddy, Scott Mayfield, Adam Pelech, Ryan Pulock, Parker Wotherspoon

Goalies:
Ken Appleby, Semyon Varlamov

Notable Unrestricted Free Agents

F Casey Cizikas, D Braydon Coburn, D Andy Greene, F Kyle Palmieri, F Travis Zajac

Notable Exemptions

D Johnny Boychuk (Inj.), D Samuel Bolduc, D Noah Dobson, D Robin Salo, G Jakub Skarek, G Ilya Sorokin, F Oliver Wahlstrom

Key Decisions

When you miss the playoffs or even exit early, it is easier to look toward the future when it comes to making difficult decisions in regards to the Expansion Draft (see: Philadelphia Flyers). However, when it comes to the Islanders, their current deep playoff run could make that difficult. The team faces several decisions in which they must choose between a top veteran or a younger future piece and must sort that out.

However, there are some no-brainers to start. In goal, the team specifically signed Appleby only to expose him, allowing them to protect starter Varlamov. On defense, the tongue-twisting top pair of Pelech and Pulock are locked in for protection. At forward, young core pieces Barzal and Beauvillier and captain Lee are also guarantees.

After that, things get difficult. The seemingly easy call is to protect their other top-scoring veteran forwards. Bailey, Nelson, Eberle, and Pageau are all key pieces to this season and playoff run and are all signed long-term. However, Bailey and Eberle will both turn 32 next season and carry expensive contracts for several more years, but have shown signs of decline in recent seasons. They will both certainly be contributors for another year or possibly longer, but are they worth losing another forward and missing out on using the cap space elsewhere?

If any of that core group of top-nine forwards is not protected, other candidates include reliable fourth liners Clutterbuck and Martin. However, the player who deserves the most consideration is young Bellows. The 23-year-old forward is a 2016 first-round pick who produced with the USNTDP, in the NCAA, the WHL, and most recently the AHL. His scoring has yet to translate to the NHL, but it seems like a safe bet. With more time and opportunity, Bellows could easily be a top goal-scorer for an NHL team. Do the Islanders risk that team being the Seattle Kraken?

One thing that is certain is that the depth up front will ensure the Islanders use the 7-3 protetion scheme. On defense, behind Pelech and Pulock, it may seem like top-scoring defenseman Leddy should be the final pick and he very well may be. After some down years, Leddy impressed this season and was invaluable to the Islanders’ success. He also plays a key leadership role as an experienced, long-time member of the team.

However, Leddy’s age and his expiring contract could make him a diminishing asset for the team. In his place, they could keep the younger, more affordable, and arguably equally valuable Mayfield. Initially more of a stay-at-home defenseman, Mayfield has rounded out his game in recent years and with that his role has increased. At $1.45MM for two more years, Mayfield is a bargain and would have a greater total impact on the team if Leddy leaves after next season, even if Leddy is the superior performer next season alone. Is that enough to make him the selection? Another outside-the-box candidate would be 22-year-old Aho, who showed potential last season but took a step back this year.

Projected Protection List

F Josh Bailey
F Mathew Barzal
F Anthony Beauvillier
F Jordan Eberle
F Anders Lee
F Brock Nelson
F Jean-Gabriel Pageau

D Nick Leddy
D Adam Pelech
D Ryan Pulock

G Semyon Varlamov

Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist

When Vegas had their expansion draft, a minimum of two forwards and one defenseman had to be exposed that were under contract and played either 40 games in the most recent season or 70 over the past two combined.  Due to the pandemic, those thresholds have been changed to 27 games played in 2020-21 or 54 in 2019/20 and 2020-21 combined.  In creating our expansion list for each team in this series, we will ensure that these criteria are met.

Forwards (3): Cal Clutterbuck, Leo Komarov, Matt Martin

Defensemen (1): Scott Mayfield

The Islanders’ current playoff run could very likely determine their approach to the Expansion Draft. If they feel strongly about their success in winning the East Division or if they are able to advance to the next round, they may feel that they are close enough to winning a Stanley Cup that they keep all of their top-performing veterans. Yet, if they win the Cup, perhaps that focus shifts back to the future and the emphasis becomes long-term assets. Either way, the Islanders will have to expose good players and after giving up a king’s ransom to Vegas in the last round of Expansion and already with a relatively shallow prospect pipeline and missing several draft picks, they are unlikely to make any side deals.

If available, a top veteran like Leddy, Bailey, or Eberle would be an easy pick for Seattle. However, assuming they are protected, Mayfield does stick out as the top option. The only issue there could be that there will be many teams who expose solid defensemen and don’t have any quality forwards available. A young, high-upside forward like Bellows may be hard to pass up. The Kraken will have plenty of options and the Islanders will lose a good player – likely their No. 4 defenseman or top forward prospect – but they will survive.

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