Calculating Kucherov’s Potential Value As RFA
Tampa Bay’s Nikita Kucherov is perhaps the best player still without a contract for 2016-17. Of course as a RFA without arbitration rights and given there is practically no chance another team would dare an offer sheet, Kucherov has almost no leverage to use in negotiations for a new deal. Regardless, Kucherov is going to get a significant raise over the modest $700K he earned in salary this year. That might not bode too well for Tampa, who has around $6.5MM in cap space with Kucherov and D Nikita Nestorov still to re-sign. Still, despite the relative lack of apparent progress, Lightning GM Steve Yzerman is quite confident a deal with Kucherov will get done, as Joe Smith of the Tampa Bay Times writes.
Naturally, knowing a deal will get done and knowing what that done deal will look like are two very different things. Smith speculates that the six-year, $36MM ($6MM AAV) contract Filip Forsberg signed with Nashville serves as a good comparable.
Like Kucherov, Forsberg was coming off his ELC when he agreed to his new pact. In terms of offensive production, there are strong similarities between the two. Forsberg has averaged 0.33 Goals/Game and 0.73 Pts/Game during his 182-game NHL career. Kucherov counters with nearly identical scoring rates of 0.32 Goals/Game and 0.71 Pts/Game over 211 games. Forsberg’s deal certainly would seem to represent a fair comparable.
Yzerman is as patient as they come in his role as GM and he will only make a deal if he feels it fits into the club’s salary structure. Not long ago it seemed all but certain that Steven Stamkos would sign a contract worth close to $10MM annually, whether with Tampa or another club, as that is the going rate for elite players. Yet Yzerman sold Stamkos on his long-term vision for the program and convinced the star sniper to take a more palatable figure for the team.
After getting Stamkos’ name on the dotted line, Yzerman moved to sign franchise defenseman Victor Hedman a year before he would have hit free agency. Ultimately, Hedman and the Lightning agreed to an eight-year, $63MM deal many in the industry feel is a steal for a player of his caliber.
Yzerman might not be the perfect GM (the Ryan Callahan contract already looks like it’s going to be an anchor) but he has done a tremendous job getting most of his own guys to re-sign for fair-market value or less, allowing enough space to get his RFA’s done.
That being said, Kucherov’s representation might look elsewhere for comparable contracts to base their argument on. One such deal is the eight-year, $60MM pact Vladimir Tarasenko obtained from the St. Louis Blues earlier this year. If we again take into account relative offensive production over the last three seasons, Kucherov matches up fairly well with Tarasenko. The Blues winger is slightly more productive offensively, both in the goal scoring (0.37 goals-per-game) and points departments (0.75 points-per-game). But the difference is small enough that Kucherov’s camp could reasonably push for a contract somewhat closer to Tarasenko’s in AAV.
On the other side of the coin, Mike Hoffman, who recently inked a four-year extension with Ottawa worth $20.75MM ($5.1875MM AAV) could also be used as a marker for Kucherov’s value. Hoffman comes up just shy in terms of points-per-game (0.68) but is essentially equal as a goal-scorer based on rates. Hoffman has averaged 0.36 goals-per-game over the last two seasons while Kucherov has recorded 0.37 per, over the same time frame.
At the end of the day, the Forsberg contract is likely going to be close to what the two sides end up agreeing upon. Kucherov has outproduced Hoffman enough to justify an AAV higher than $5.1875MM. And while Kucherov isn’t too far off from Tarasenko offensively, the Blues winger is the more electric goal scorer and goals pay better than assists. Those factors combined with Yzerman’s ability to make deals on his terms point to the likelihood of something in the range of $6MM annually.
Are Offer Sheets A Thing Of The Past?
This summer’s restricted free agent (RFA) list is quite impressive, with nine 20-goal scorers and 13 players who scored more than 40 points last season. Forwards Sean Monahan, Johnny Gaudreau, Nikita Kucherov, Marcus Johansson, and Mike Hoffman headline the forwards; while Hampus Lindholm, Tyson Barrie, Rasmus Ristolainen, Danny DeKeyser, and Jacob Trouba are the top defensemen. Detroit’s Petr Mrazek is the only big-name RFA goalie remaining. Most of the above players are eligible for offer sheets.
According to Elliotte Friedman, compensation for offer sheets is as follows:
- Less than $1.239MM (average annual value of contract) – Nothing;
- $1.239-$1.878MM – Third-round pick;
- $1.878-$3.755MM – Second-round pick;
- $3.755-$5.633MM – First and third-round picks;
- $5.633-$7.510MM – First, second and third-round picks;
- $7.510-$9.388MM – Two first, a second and third-round picks;
- Over $9.388MM – Four first-round picks.
With this in mind, teams could target rival teams top young players, with both outcomes having their benefits to the aggressive team: either they acquire a good young player for only picks, or they mess up a rival’s salary cap by inflating the player’s salary.
The threat of an offer sheet was evident last summer, with the Blackhawks trading Brandon Saad to the Blue Jackets and the Bruins trading Dougie Hamilton to the Flames. Both players were pending RFAs and in line for a big raise before being shipped out to prevent their teams from being subjected to an offer sheet. However, this summer has been the complete opposite, with teams taking their time to sign the above-mentioned stars, apparently not overly worried about offer sheets.
Why could that be?
The last time an NHL team successfully acquired a player via an offer sheet was in 2007. Then-Oilers-GM Kevin Lowe signed Anaheim Ducks LW Dustin Penner to a 4-year, $21.5MM contract. The Ducks did not match, and the Oilers forked over their first three rounds of draft picks in 2008. Penner enjoyed varying degrees of success in three-and-a-half seasons in Edmonton before being traded to Los Angeles where he won a Stanley Cup. The Penner offer sheet is most fondly remembered by then-Ducks-GM Brian Burke and Lowe’s escalating war of words which nearly lead to a fist-fight in a rented barn in Lake Placid. Commissioner Gary Bettman was forced to have a conference call with the two GMs to get them to stop.
It’s perhaps this sort of reaction that prevents GMs from making offer sheets. Earlier this summer, ESPN and TSN reporter Pierre LeBrun quoted an unnamed GM as threatening opposing GMs with an offer sheet per year for the next ten years as retribution for a potential offer sheet. There appears to be an unspoken agreement between GMs to leave RFAs alone. There hasn’t been an offer sheet tendered since 2013 when Colorado matched Calgary’s contract with Ryan O’Reilly, saving the Flames from an embarrassing and costly mistake.
So despite several fan bases calling for offer sheets, it seems unlikely that any players will be switching sweaters this summer because of one.
RFAs Still Waiting On Contracts
After a busy few days watching free agent contracts be handed out like candy, and millions of dollars spent like pennies, there are still some key restricted free agents out there negotiating their next contracts. Vincent Trocheck, Filip Forsberg and Seth Jones have already received deals eclipsing $25MM, locking them in long before they even get a sniff of unrestricted free agency. Here are a few more names still waiting on deals:
- Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan of the Flames still are without deals, though reports indicate they are both open to signing long-term with Calgary and want to play with each other for “the next ten years”. The pair combined for 57 goals and 141 points last season, completed before either turned 23.
- The Ducks’ Hampus Lindholm is still without a contract, as discussed earlier today. The 22-year old is considered one of the best young defensemen in the league, and the team would like to lock him up to a similar term as partner Sami Vatanen, who received a four-year deal last month.
- After re-signing Steven Stamkos, Victor Hedman and Andrei Vasilevskiy to what seem like team-friendly deals, GM Steve Yzerman still has work to do in the form of Nikita Kucherov, the team’s young sniper. Reports are that the two sides are working on a deal, but Yzerman has to be careful as the team is inching closer and closer to the salary cap with Kucherov and three other players still to sign.
- After acquiring Taylor Hall in a blockbuster deal, the Devils still have another star winger to get under contract in the form of Kyle Palmieri. The 25-year old broke out last season with 30 goals, and will be looking to cash in on his sudden performance. The Devils have over $17MM in cap space even after bringing back Devante Smith-Pelly and signing Ben Lovejoy and Vernon Fiddler.
For the entire list of RFA players, and the projected depth charts for each team head to Roster Resource and check out their detailed info.
Atlantic Notes: Bruins, Lightning, Maple Leafs, Red Wings
Though Puck Daddy’s Greg Wyshynski was initially surprised by David Backes signing in Boston, further review made it understandable. Backes adds another physical, goal scoring center to a team that already includes David Krejci and Patrice Bergeron. Wyshynski does warn that Backes arrives with a lot of miles and although he’s only missed 16 games since 2008, his style of play makes the five-year deal somewhat risky near the end of the contract. Regardless, the Bruins beefed up down the middle and have a more favorable look against the best teams in the division–and conference.
Other notes from the Atlantic:
- Lightning general manager Steve Yzerman continues his mastery of signing the team’s high end talent and Tampa Times writer Joe Smith reports that Nikita Kucherov should be the next name for Yzerman to cross off his list. Smith writes that Yzerman is optimistic a deal will get done and predicts that Kucherov could expect Filip Forsberg numbers in the range of a six-year, $36MM deal. But if there’s anything to be seen with Yzerman, it’s that he’s become a master of negotiations. Between Steven Stamkos and Victor Hedman taking what was considered significantly less money to stay in Tampa, it should be expected that Kucherov will possibly take less to stay with a team that Yzerman continues to build into an Eastern Conference force.
- The Maple Leafs were very quiet with the exception of signing Matt Martin to a four-year, $10MM deal Friday. TSN’s Kristen Shilton writes that Leafs general manager Lou Lamoriello felt that Martin filled a need for the rebuilding organization. The move was also precipitated by bench boss Mike Babcock wanting more toughness on the roster. The Toronto Sun’s Lance Hornsby writes that while the team didn’t come out and say it, Martin’s role will be that of a bodyguard for #1 overall pick Auston Matthews, and other Leaf youngsters. Lamoriello did admit that the signing was one to make his younger players feel “freer” on the ice.
- While the Red Wings inked Frans Nielsen, Thomas Vanek and Steve Ott, their moves weren’t applauded by everyone. The Detroit News’ Gregg Krupa wonders if general manager Ken Holland’s magic touch is beginning to wear off, and writes that the Wings’ top man shouldn’t be finished with his offseason moves quite yet. Colleague Bob Wojnowski agrees, adding that the Wings are a team “scrambling to find their way” and along with Krupa, opines that that the fanbase is growing restless with Holland’s loyalty to players like Darren Helm, who notched a five-year, $19.5MM deal before free agency opened. Craig Hagerman goes even further, writing that the Wings were one of three teams that actually got worse following Friday’s free agent frenzy. While he lauds the Nielsen signing, he questions the re-signing of Helm (registering a 30 point season twice in his career), Ott (no goals last season), and Vanek (bought out for underachieving).
The Steven Stamkos Contract And Its Long Term Effects
Had it happened at any point over the last year, Tampa Bay captain Steven Stamkos re-signing with the Lightning would have been the top story of the day and dominated the conversation. However, on a day where big names were being traded left, right, and center, the Markham-native forgoing unrestricted free agency seemed like a side note.
Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reports the structure of Stamkos’ new contract being heavily bonus-laden: Stamkos will make a $1MM salary with the rest in bonuses. Friedman has the salary at five years of $9.5MM, followed by $7.5MM and two years of $6.5MM. That’s a total of $68MM over 8 years, for a cap hit of $8.5MM, which is only $1MM higher than his expiring contract.
It’s a similar structure to the contracts of David Clarkson and Ryan O’Reilly, with great benefits to the player in the event of a lockout or buyout: Stamkos will still get the signing bonus money if the NHL goes through another lockout in 2023 at the expiration of the current CBA. As well, should the Lightning ever want to buy him out (don’t laugh, they bough out Vincent Lecavalier), it would cost the team $2.83MM per season. That’s 283% of his actually salary. (Buyout calculation done on General Fanager).
The feel-good aspect of the signing is this: Stamkos took less money to stay than he could have gotten on the open market (not factoring taxes). He wants to retire a member of the Lightning. In the Lightning’s press release, Stamkos was quoted as saying “it’s not often that a player gets the chance to spend his career in one organization and I am hopeful that this agreement sets me on that path”.
However, the part that is going to make Lightning fans nervous is how it will affect the team around Stamkos. The team has $9.3MM in space for next season. However, leading scorer Nikita Kucherov still needs a new contract after being qualified earlier this week, as does two-way winger Alex Killorn. Those two contracts are doable; it’s next summer where it could get ugly. Top defenceman Victor Hedman, both starting goalie Ben Bishop and goalie-of-the-future Andrei Vasilevskiy, and forwards Jonathan Drouin, Tyler Johnson and Ondrej Palat will all see their contracts expire.
One of the goalies will likely be traded before then, but the rest of the group will cost serious money to keep together. Defenceman Matt Carle has two years left at $5.5MM and figures to be traded or bought out to save space for the upcoming group of free agents. This is also where gritty winger Ryan Callahan‘s contract is going to hurt. Callahan will make $5.8MM annually until 2020, but scored just 28 points in 73 games last season and is on the wrong side of 30.
Wily GM Steve Yzerman will have his hands full again this season, after masterfully handling the Drouin and Stamkos sagas last season. It’s going to be a very interesting year for the Lightning and their fans.