More On Mikko Rantanen, Colorado Avalanche
“The Avs aren’t going to pay Mitch Marner money”
That’s what Pierre LeBrun writes in his latest column for The Athletic (subscription required), which examines some of the ongoing negotiations around the league including the one in Colorado with Avalanche forward Mikko Rantanen. While they aren’t ready to pay up to the $10.893MM average annual value Marner received from the Toronto Maple Leafs, LeBrun reports that the team did make Rantanen a long-term offer earlier this month and that they would match an offer sheet “in a heartbeat.”
Rantanen’s agent Mike Liut hit the airwaves this week and turned some stomachs in Colorado when he compared his client to Marner directly, noting that they both are playmaking wingers (though he admitted they go about their offensive games a bit differently). The 22-year old has actually outscored Marner if you combine the last two seasons, and has 13 more goals in his career despite playing fewer games. It’s hard to argue that the pair don’t belong in the same tax bracket, but the Avalanche apparently don’t see it that way.
The Avalanche have plenty of cap room if they ever wanted to go that high, but still have to worry about a few other contracts down the line. Nathan MacKinnon is locked into one of the best contracts in the league for the next four years, but Gabriel Landeskog, Philipp Grubauer and Cale Makar will all need new deals in the summer of 2021. Obviously there is time to handle those negotiations even if Rantanen gets a big deal, but locking him into “Marner money” won’t be the outcome here.
Poll: Which Star RFA Is Most Likely To Miss Games?
We’re now exactly two weeks from the start of the 2019-20 NHL regular season and eight* restricted free agents are still without contracts. While a few of those names represent depth or role players, five names stand out as potentially disastrous situations. Brayden Point, Mikko Rantanen, Matthew Tkachuk, Kyle Connor and Patrik Laine have all shown superstar ability in their short careers and would be huge talents to leave on the sideline when the season begins. All five forwards scored at least 30 goals last season, with Laine registering the fewest points (50) and Point the most (92).
It’s hard to know exactly when any of them will finally break down the barrier and report to camp at this point. Rantanen and Laine are skating in Switzerland, Tkachuk is with his old OHL team and there have been reports about nearly all of them that things still aren’t close. Just a few days ago Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic tweeted that last offer from the Tampa Bay Lightning to Point was a three-year deal that carried just a $5.7MM average annual value. That would represent a much lower number than someone like Mitch Marner signed for, but Tampa Bay has long maintained the philosophy of low-cost bridge deals for their star players coming out of the entry-level system.
It seems likely then that at least one of these five will miss games at the start of the season. Preseason games have already started without them in training camp and opening night is quickly approaching. But who is the most likely to be without a contract on October 2nd? Cast your vote below and make sure to explain your thoughts in the comment section.
Which star RFA is most likely to miss games?
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Patrik Laine, Winnipeg Jets 64% (812)
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Brayden Point, Tampa Bay Lightning 15% (192)
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Mikko Rantanen, Colorado Avalanche 10% (130)
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Matthew Tkachuk, Calgary Flames 8% (107)
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Kyle Connor, Winnipeg Jets 2% (23)
Total votes: 1,264
[Mobile users click here to vote]
*There are actually several other RFAs that do not have NHL contracts, but they have already signed elsewhere around the globe to play in other leagues.
Latest On Patrik Laine, Mikko Rantanen
When the Mitch Marner saga came to an end, some believed that it would move along some of the other restricted free agent negotiations around the league. That may not be the case for two Finnish forwards, who are currently training overseas. Mikko Rantanen and Patrik Laine are both practicing with SC Bern of the Swiss NLA, and don’t appear close to new deals with the Colorado Avalanche and Winnipeg Jets respectively. In fact, their agent Mike Liut joined Sportsnet radio this morning and talked about the negotiations, bluntly stating that they’re “not close” on either player. Liut went on to draw comparisons for one of his clients to Marner:
I think that Mitch Marner and Mikko Rantanen are probably the two closest comparables in terms of how they play the game. Where you have wingers that are adept at creating offense for those that they’re playing with. They do it maybe a little bit differently. Mikko’s 225 (lbs) and Mitch is not, but Mitch is a carrier and a great player. The Leafs have really looked into the future. You’re going to have a salary cap at $81.5MM, there’s no growth factor, one half of one percent. History has shown what the league does on a year-over-year basis, it’s going to 2.5% revenue growth.
Your top line, your top three players whether they’re defensemen or forwards are going to be in that range that the Leafs have created.
Liut also discussed how teams are going to have to roll through players on a more constant basis in order to keep their top players paid. Laine and Rantanen both certainly want to be compensated like top players, and it’s easy to see why. Laine has scored 110 goals in his three-year career, one of the highest rates in the league thanks to his incredible shot and ability to float away from traffic at the right time. Though his overall point totals declined sharply last season, goal-scorers are rewarded handsomely in the NHL and Laine should be no different.
Rantanen meanwhile has become one of the most impressive offensive players in the league, recording 171 points over the last two seasons. While some of that is because of his time with Nathan MacKinnon, there’s no doubting Rantanen’s talent. The tenth overall pick from 2015, Rantanen stands 6’4″ but has the puck skills and playmaking ability often associated with much smaller players. Even in the playoffs where young players often struggle, the Colorado forward led his club with 14 points in 12 games and was a force on the ice on almost every shift. If his camp truly sees a direct comparison to Marner, they must be looking for a pretty big raise. The Toronto Maple Leafs forward recently signed a six-year deal worth more than $65MM, putting him among the top handful of salaries ($10.893MM AAV) in the NHL.
While both are practicing overseas at the moment, Liut downplayed the idea that either one would sign with a European club even if the contract included an NHL-out clause. That should settle some nerves in Colorado and Winnipeg, but if contracts aren’t close at this point there should be real concern that the Finns will miss a good chunk of training camp or perhaps even the start of the regular season.
Snapshots: Juulsen, Rantanen, Gust
The Montreal Canadiens have announced some troubling news regarding young defenseman Noah Juulsen, who is planning on consulting a specialist for his ongoing headaches. Juulsen just can’t seem to stay healthy long enough to take a real step forward in his development, having missed all but 24 games at any level last season after taking two pucks to the face in November.
Originally drafted 26th overall in 2015, the former WHL standout has actually only played in a total of 80 games as a professional and seems to still be facing symptoms that could put the start of his season in jeopardy. Even if he does get them sorted out quickly the team now has eight NHL defensemen on the roster and more coming up the pipeline. While Juulsen could likely pass over names like Karl Alzner and Christian Folin quickly, he’ll have to get healthy to even give himself a chance.
- After another report recently that the Colorado Avalanche and Mikko Rantanen are not close to a deal, it looks like he’s found another unsigned RFA to spend some time with. According to a report out of Finland, Rantanen will join Patrik Laine with SC Bern of the Swiss NLA to train until things are resolved. Rantanen also played in the 2016 World Championship under Bern head coach Kari Jalonen, where Laine earned tournament MVP honors and the Finns took home a silver medal.
- Even though most minor league rosters are set at this point and just waiting for training camp cuts from their NHL affiliates, the Charlotte Checkers aren’t done adding depth. The team signed Dave Gust to an AHL deal today, bringing in the former Ohio State star to give them another option up front. The 25-year old Gust has played the last two seasons with the Bakersfield Condors, scoring 33 points in 59 games last year.
Avalanche Notes: Rantanen, Annunen, Zadorov
Things are all quiet between the Colorado Avalanche and Mikko Rantanen according to Adrian Dater of Colorado Hockey Now, who tweets that there has been “little to no talk” over the last week. There was a prevailing thought in the hockey world that once Mitch Marner signed with the Toronto Maple Leafs there would be some kind of movement with the other restricted free agents, but that’s not necessarily the case in Colorado. Rantanen compares pretty well to Marner after scoring 171 points over the last two seasons, but it is hard to imagine Avalanche GM Joe Sakic was happy when he saw the six-year, $65MM deal come across the wire from Toronto.
Nathan MacKinnon, Colorado’s best player, is making averaging just $6.3MM over the final four years of his contract, making it tough to see the Avalanche hand out nearly twice that amount to Rantanen even with his strong performances to date. The 22-year old Finn will almost certainly become the team’s highest-paid player however if he signs any long-term deal, just how high the Avalanche are willing to go is unclear. Colorado has plenty of cap space for this season, but has to worry about potential extensions for Gabriel Landeskog, Philipp Grubauer and Cale Makar in two years.
- They won’t have to worry about Justus Annunen for a while however, as the goaltending prospect has signed a two-year extension in Finland that keeps him under contract through 2021-22. While that doesn’t necessarily guarantee Annunen won’t be coming to North America during that time—the NHL does have a transfer agreement with Liiga—it certainly makes remaining overseas a strong possibility. The 19-year old was selected in the third round in 2018 and would see his draft rights expire on June 1, 2022. Annunen was brilliant in his first game for Karpat this season, stopping 23 of 25 shots for a win against HPK.
- Nikita Zadorov escaped major injury when he left the ice early yesterday and head coach Jared Bednar told reporters including Ryan S. Clark of The Athletic that it is just a lower-body “tweak.” Zadorov is considered day-to-day. It is a big season for Zadorov as he approaches restricted free agency next summer, needing to prove that he can be a top-four option for this team over the long haul.
RFA Profile: Mikko Rantanen
Avalanche winger Mikko Rantanen is now the top remaining restricted free agent following the signings of quite a few players around the league over the past few days. While it’s possible that those moves could get the ball rolling on a new deal for him, the likelier scenario at this point is that it doesn’t. Here is a look at Rantanen’s situation.
The 22-year-old is coming off his second straight season with over 80 points, a feat that not many players have reached in recent years. He also played quite well in the postseason where he led the team in scoring with 14 points in a dozen games. As far as offensive production goes, there aren’t many real comparable players out there.
One element that Colorado may try to use against him in talks is how much offensive zone starts he had last season. Their top line all saw heavy usage in the offensive end but none more than Rantanen. His career OZ% rate is higher than quite a few of the players that could be considered as comparables. There was a time where teammate Nathan MacKinnon’s $6.3MM AAV was set as the ideal ceiling for the whole team but let’s face it, that’s not going to happen. He’s a player with two high-end seasons under his belt and is still viewed as having some upside. He’s going to get a substantial contract that is well past MacKinnon’s.
Statistics
2018-19: 74 GP, 31-56-87, +13, 54 PIMS, 193 shots, 20:51 ATOI
Career: 230 GP, 80-129-209, -19, 112 PIMS, 513 shots, 18:53 ATOI
Comparables
Leon Draisaitl (Edmonton) – His placement here is basically to establish the floor for this contract. Like Rantanen, they’re both viewed as the second-best offensive threat on their respective teams and while Draisaitl played the premium position (he was mostly a center at the time), Rantanen outscored him by a fair margin in each of their two full NHL seasons.
Platform Year Stats: 82 GP, 29-48-77, +7, 20 PIMS, 172 shots, 18:53 ATOI
Career Stats at ELC Expiration: 191 GP, 50-87-137, -12, 44 PIMS, 354 shots, 17:22 ATOI
Contract: Eight years, $68MM
Cap Hit Percentage: 11.33%
Current Equivalent: Eight years, $73.87MM ($9.23MM AAV)
Jack Eichel (Buffalo) – This is a contract that Rantanen’s camp will undoubtedly point to as a benchmark deal. Eichel hadn’t reached the 70-point mark in any of his ELC years, something that Rantanen easily surpassed twice. Yes, Eichel plays the tougher position and has the better draft pedigree but there is a good case to be made that Rantanen deserves more than this contract.
Platform Year Stats: 67 GP, 25-39-64, -25, 32 PIMS, 246 shots, 20:09 ATOI
Career Stats at ELC Expiration: 209 GP, 73-104-177, -54, 76 PIMS, 743 shots, 19:41 ATOI
Contract: Eight years, $80MM
Cap Hit Percentage: 13.33%
Current Equivalent: Eight years, $86.91MM ($10.86MM AAV)
Steven Stamkos (Tampa Bay) – I’m focusing on his post-ELC deal, not his current one. (Since Rantanen is coming off his entry-level pact, all of the comparable contracts are also post-ELC ones.) He went with a shorter deal to get to UFA eligibility quicker. Stamkos, a number one overall pick, also outscored Rantanen in each season (though Rantanen’s point per game pace was a little higher than Stamkos’ platform season). While the RFA market has improved since 2011, this deal (in today’s dollars) should be considered the ceiling of a medium-term contract.
Platform Year Stats: 82 GP, 45-46-91, +3, 74 PIMS, 272 shots, 20:12 ATOI
Career Stats at ELC Expiration: 243 GP, 119-113-232, -12, 151 PIMS, 750 shots, 18:36 ATOI
Contract: Five years, $37.5MM
Cap Hit Percentage: 11.66%
Current Equivalent: Five years, $47.51MM ($9.502MM AAV)
Mitch Marner (Toronto) – The obvious one is saved for last. Many expected Marner’s deal to basically be a comparable as soon as it was signed and there’s little reason to think it won’t be. Marner is a bit more of a playmaker than Rantanen and they play different styles but they’re both very productive wingers so the money is going to be pretty close one way or the other.
Platform Year Stats: 82 GP, 26-68-94, +22, 22 PIMS, 233 shots, 19:49 ATOI
Career Stats at ELC Expiration: 241 GP, 67-157-224, +21, 81 PIMS, 603 shots, 17:41 ATOI
Contract: Six years, $65.358MM
Cap Hit Percentage: 13.37%
Projected Contract
GM Joe Sakic has made it known that his preference would be to get a long-term deal done. However, the appetite probably won’t be there at the rate it would take to get a max-term contract in place. The Avalanche have the salary cap space to make such a move but with some of their other players that will be needing new deals a couple years from now, a slightly lesser term will give them a bit more flexibility down the road.
With that in mind, a two or three-year bridge deal likely isn’t on the table as well. Those can be justifiable when a team is in a cap crunch but that isn’t the case here. Four years walks him to unrestricted free agency so that’s off the table as well.
As a result, five or six years could very well be the happy medium. If it’s five years, it should check in slightly below the $9.502MM current year equivalent for Stamkos’ deal. On a six-year pact and a second UFA year included, the AAV should jump a little past the $10MM mark. There’s a valid argument to have him in Marner’s territory but Colorado’s cap situation compared to Toronto’s gives the Avalanche a bit more leverage than what the Maple Leafs had as they couldn’t let Marner’s case drag out into the season and make the first year AAV higher than they could afford even with LTIR. That should be enough to keep Rantanen’s price tag a little lower in the end.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Snapshots: Red Wings, Blues, RFAs
The Detroit Red Wings will operate without a captain once again this season, despite the expectation that Dylan Larkin will one day assume the role. Head coach Jeff Blashill told reporters including Ansar Khan of MLive that they will instead start with four alternates: Larkin, Justin Abdelkader, Frans Nielsen and Luke Glendening. Blashill and Steve Yzerman agreed to wait until the GM got to know the entire team better after taking over this offseason.
Larkin, 23, has become the face of the Red Wings franchise after putting up a career-high 32 goals and 73 points last season. As the old guard including Henrik Zetterberg, Pavel Datsyuk and recently Niklas Kronwall have moved on from their roles on the Red Wings, Larkin and other young players have taken on more and more responsibility. As the team transitions from rebuilding to contending over the next few years it seems likely that someone will eventually wear the “C” for Blashill and Yzerman, just not yet.
- The St. Louis Blues are finalizing extensions for Steve Ott and David Alexander according to Jim Thomas of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. The pair of assistant coaches will be given extensions that match the length of head coach Craig Berube, who was given a three-year deal earlier this summer. The coaching staff under Berube completed a miracle turnaround this season with the Blues, taking them from last place in the NHL to Stanley Cup champions in just a few months.
- Andy Strickland of Fox Sports Midwest has heard a few things on restricted free agents Patrik Laine and Mikko Rantanen, including about a recent short-term offer from the Winnipeg Jets to the former. The deal presented to Laine was in the “$5MM per year range” though Strickland notes that even on that short-term deal the Jets will “need to come up on money.” For Rantanen, Strickland reports that the free agent forward is not far away in terms of salary with the Colorado Avalanche and that the team’s last offer “blew past Nathan MacKinnon‘s $6.3MM AAV.”
Early Notes: Mangiapane, Rantanen, Okhotyuk
The Calgary Flames have had countless headlines written about their ongoing negotiation with Matthew Tkachuk, but they actually have another restricted free agent still unsigned as well. Andrew Mangiapane is in danger of missing the start of training camp if something can’t get done, which is likely more important for a player that has just 54 NHL games under his belt and is fighting for a full-time roster spot. Eric Francis of Sportsnet reports that the two sides are $200K apart on a one-year deal, with the Flames offering $800K and Mangiapane “looking for closer to $1MM.”
Calgary GM Brad Treliving told Francis that the team isn’t waiting on Tkachuk to sign Mangiapane, but with such a small difference in offers you can bet the team is trying to make sure they don’t overpay even the slightest, knowing they don’t have a lot of wiggle room under the cap ceiling. The Flames currently project to have just over $7.7MM in cap space, though there are a few ways to create some extra room, like placing defenseman Juuso Valimaki on long-term injured reserve.
- Though Mitch Marner and Mikko Rantanen have raised eyebrows during their negotiations by being linked to clubs overseas, the latter decided to put that idea to rest in an interview with Russian outlet Business Online. Rantanen was very clear that the NHL is “the only option” for him this season and he won’t be discussing contracts with the KHL or other leagues. The Colorado Avalanche forward is coming off his second consecutive season scoring more than a point-per-game and has found a home on the top line beside Nathan MacKinnon. Still just 22, he could potentially become Colorado’s highest-paid player on his next contract.
- The New Jersey Devils won’t be able to get a closer look at prospect Nikita Okhotyuk at the Prospect Challenge this weekend, as the team announced he is out six to eight weeks following surgery on a broken finger. Okhotyuk was selected in the second round in June and will miss regular training camp as well. The 18-year old defenseman is expected to return to the Ottawa 67’s for the 2019-20 season.
Snapshots: Mattheos, McDavid, Rantanen
Carolina Hurricanes prospect Stelio Mattheos will not be taking part in the team’s training camp this year, as he instead will be completing treatment for testicular cancer. Mattheos was diagnosed in June and has already undergone surgery and multiple courses of chemotherapy. He is expected to return to full health. The 20-year old forward released a statement through the team:
I’d like to thank everyone who reached out to offer support and well wishes since the diagnosis. I’ve had amazing support from my friends, family, teammates, coaches and all of the hockey organizations I’ve been a part of, including the Hurricanes, Checkers and Brandon Wheat Kings.
I owe a debt of gratitude to my surgeon, Dr. Sabeer Rehsia, and all of the staff at Grace Hospital, as well as Dr. Piotr Czaykowski at Cancer Care Manitoba and all of the nurses on the chemotherapy ward.
The third-round pick from 2017 got his first taste of professional hockey earlier this year when he joined the Charlotte Checkers for their stretch drive and playoff run that eventually ended in a Calder Cup championship. The former WHL standout was expected to compete for a bigger role with Charlotte this season but will obviously be taking care of his health first.
- Speaking of missing part of training camp, alarm bells went up today when Connor McDavid decided not to take part in the annual BioSteel camp in Toronto. Edmonton Oilers fans can breathe however as McDavid explained to reporters including Mark Masters of TSN that he has not suffered any setbacks in his recovery from a knee injury suffered late in the season. The Oilers star has been on the ice for the last couple of months and is working towards his goal of being on the ice at the beginning of training camp next month.
- Mikko Rantanen doesn’t have a contract yet and will likely not be attending Colorado Avalanche training camp without one, but that doesn’t mean he’s not on the ice. The Storhamar Dragons in Norway tweeted today that Rantanen has been skating with them. Unsigned restricted free agents often find a place to skate and train while their contracts are negotiated, like we saw with William Nylander throughout the first part of last season. Mitch Marner recently was connected to the Zurich Lions, and many of the other names on the RFA list will likely follow suit if their deals aren’t completed soon.
Poll: Who Will Be The First Top RFA To Sign?
It’s the question on everyone’s mind. When will these restricted free agents sign? The workday on the second last Friday of August has almost come to an end and there is still a huge list of unsigned stars with no real progress being made. Whether they are all waiting on Mitch Marner or Brayden Point to set the market or not, we’re starting to get closer and closer to the start of training camp and real contract holdouts beginning. We’ve already heard one player has contacted a European squad to give them a place to train, and there will undoubtedly be more.
So who breaks the dam? When Colin White signed earlier this week there was hope that things were finally progressing, but instead there has been deafening silence around the league. Even with small tidbits of information coming out from situations surrounding Zach Werenski and Brock Boeser, there still doesn’t seem to be any movement. Boston Bruins GM Don Sweeney explained today that things with Brandon Carlo and Charlie McAvoy are going “not as fast as everybody would like” but that he’s confident they will be with the organization for a long time.
It’s not even just the top players that are still out there without a contract. Names like Kevin Fiala, Brendan Perlini and Adrian Kempe are still without deals for one reason or another and may still be waiting on the high-profile players to be finished first. That’s a tough place for any young player to be in, especially when you’re not quite as established as someone like Point or Marner. Missing training camp would be a huge detriment to their careers, meaning they’re likely watching the news wire just as closely.
When will things change? Who will finally decide that the waiting game is taking too long? Cast your vote below and make sure to explain why in the comments. We’ve included the top names, but feel free to explain why another player may be the one to kick things off.
Who will be the first top RFA to sign?
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Brock Boeser 19% (173)
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Mikko Rantanen 12% (115)
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Brayden Point 12% (114)
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Matthew Tkachuk 11% (99)
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Zach Werenski 10% (94)
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Mitch Marner 10% (89)
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Travis Konecny 8% (71)
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Kyle Connor 7% (67)
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Charlie McAvoy 5% (47)
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Patrik Laine 4% (34)
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Ivan Provorov 3% (29)
Total votes: 932
[Mobile users click here to vote]