Tavares To Toronto Highly Unlikely
Although it seems to occur every time a high-profile free-agent could hit the market, Toronto media have once again conjured a dream of landing a superstar. John Tavares is experiencing major difficulty in coming to terms with the New York Islanders, primarily because of the uncertainty of their arena situation. The team needs to prove that they are both competitive and can secure a home for the foreseeable future. Enter Toronto, who believes that the contract negotiation difficulty automatically propels them into a top-3 competitor for Tavares’ services. If this story may sound familiar, that’s because it occurred just last off-season when Steven Stamkos was stalling his new deal with Tampa Bay.
Toronto inarguably is in a far superior negotiating position than they were in 2016. They’ve made the playoffs and took the Washington Capitals to their limits, and flaunt a young core who established itself as dominant quite before most believed possible. Given another season of success, the Leafs could be serious contenders for any UFA on the market. That said, a Tavares signing would be absurdly difficult and ultimately impractical for a multitude of reasons. The Leafs’ fanbase is already (rightfully) fretting over the difficulty of keeping Mitch Marner, Auston Matthews, and William Nylander together while staying under the cap ceiling. Each player will command hefty money on long-term deals, and the best case scenario (cap-wise) is that one of the three might have a “down” statistical year.
Even ignoring those future contracts, Toronto already made matters more complicated by signing Patrick Marleau to a 3-year contract worth $6.25 MM AAV. Assuming that the team keeps one or two of James van Riemsdyk, Leo Komarov, and Tyler Bozak (all UFAs in 2018), they will have precious room to devote to Tavares beyond 2018-19. After that point, Matthews and Marner will both be on new deals with heavy cap hits. Craig Button of TSN suggests that the Leafs could offer Tavares a one-year deal, but there is little to no security in such an arrangement. If the Islanders are unable to move Tavares or simply fall short of securing a new contract, Tavares will be likely seek a long-term arrangement. His primary stated concern at present is security, and a one-year contract elsewhere certainly doesn’t achieve said goal.
By signing Marleau, the writing for Toronto fans should have been clear and visible. Still, the Tavares hope persists. It’s not impossible that Tavares could sign a long-term contract in Toronto, but it would take a major roster overhaul to achieve. One of Marner or Nylander would necessarily need to depart, and the amount of money spent on the offense would only increase further. It seems likely that GM Lou Lamoriello will simply build upon the core that has been so successful without gutting the progress made. It would be unrealistic to expect Lamoriello to not at least inquire about Tavares if he indeed hits unrestricted free agency, but it would require a major organizational commitment without any real certainty in the matter. Tavares will receive a long-term contract, whether it is from New York or another franchise, but as of now the Leafs are not in a position to extend such an offer.
Leafs Notes: Kovalchuk, Nylander, Van Riemsdyk
Howard Berger praised Leafs’ management and their willingness to “think outside the box” with regards to player movement in a recent article. He revisits the Ilya Kovalchuk speculation and the article does beg the question of whether the Leafs were (or are) seriously interested. They do have a bit of cap room to play with, and are undoubtedly a team on the rise. Without taking a massive paycut, and with the New York area teams reportedly backing away, it does limit Kovalchuk’s potential landing spots were he to make an NHL return. A long-term deal would almost certainly be out of the question, but he could provide a noticeable veteran presence up front and would immediately catapult the Leafs into a dominant offensive team. With youngsters Mitch Marner, William Nylander, and Auston Matthews all looking to build upon their immensely successful season, the grizzled Kovalchuk could serve as a stabilizing mentor.
- Also mentioned in the article is potentiality of trading Nylander going forward. Berger cites the Chicago Blackhawks model of 3 core players – 2 forwards and 1 defenseman (Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Duncan Keith) – as what GM Lou Lamoriello should seek to mimic. The core of Marner, Nylander, and Matthews needs a solidifying defensive force to round out the group (so the theory goes) and Berger believes Nylander is the weakest of the three. This would certainly be “outside the box”, but there is little logic in forfeiting an explosive talent up front merely because of contract concerns, at least at this early stage. As the Pittsburgh Penguins are proving this off-season, a solid group of defenseman is enough to overcome the absence of a marquee name.
- In spite of all the smoke that constantly surrounds the Maple Leafs in their hockey-crazed media market, management has been relatively conservative in their rebuilding approach. It seems unlikely that Toronto will make a massive transaction and will instead quietly build upon last season’s advances. Although they have been known to venture outside the league for help (Nikita Zaitsev, Leo Komarov), Kovalchuk will likely require too much money and term. If the team were to trade a forward for defensive help, it would almost certainly be a non-core piece at or near the age of 30. Komarov is likely too integral to the team’s leadership and mentality to be shipped off for anything short of an overpayment. Fellow 2018 UFAs Tyler Bozak and James van Riemsdyk are the obvious candidates for movement, with van Reimsdyk more likely to attract attention due to his greater goal-scoring prowess.
Toronto Notes: Andersen, Matthews
Leafs goalie Frederik Andersen has “no symptoms” of a concussion, but will sit tonight’s game against Blue Jackets, according to coach Mike Babcock. The goaltender is expected to start Game 1 of the playoffs.
Andersen, who was hit by Pittsburgh’s Tom Sestito who ironically was back for his first game after serving a four-game suspension for a hit against Tobias Enstrom, hit Andersen in a fly-by. Initial belief was he had suffered a concussion. Backup Curtis McElhinney took over in Saturday’s game and is expected to get the start with recent callup Garret Sparks to take backup duties.
Other Toronto notes …
- When rookie Auston Matthews scored his 40th goal Saturday, an empty netter with three seconds remaining that clinched the Maple Leafs a playoff spot, it put the teenager into rare company. The 19-year-old rookie is now the fourth rookie-teenager in NHL history to score 40 goals. He joins elite company next to Dale Hawerchuk (45 goals at 18 years of age in 1981-82), Mario Lemieux (43 goals at 19 years of age in 1984-85) and Sylvain Turgeon (40 goals at 19 years in 1983-84). Matthews had previously broken the American-born rookie scoring record when he recorded his 39th goal Monday.
- Dave McCarthy of NHL.com reports the Leafs will have nine players play 82 games this year, a testament to their health and one reason for the team’s success this year in reaching the playoffs. Matthews, Nazem Kadri, James van Riemsdyk, Connor Brown, Leo Komarov, Zach Hyman, Jake Gardiner, Matt Martin, Nikita Zaitsev have played all 81 games so far and are expected to play tonight. William Nylander is only at 80 games.