2016-17 Season Preview: Detroit Red Wings
With the NHL preseason underway, PHR continues to look at every team prior to the regular season. Today, we look at the Detroit Red Wings.
Last season: 41-30-11 (93 points); Finished 3rd in the Atlantic; Lost 4-1 to Tampa Bay in the first round.
Cap Space Remaining: -$4.24MM via CapFriendly.
Key Newcomers: F Thomas Vanek (signed as free agent); F Frans Nielsen (signed as free agent from New York Islanders); F Steve Ott (signed as free agent from St. Louis), F Dylan Sadowy (acquired from San Jose).
Key Departures: D Kyle Quincey (signed with New Jersey).
Player to Watch: Gustav Nyquist and Tomas Tatar: Both saw their numbers fall last season, but a lot of that, after looking at advanced stats and ice time, show a difference in terms of how the two were utilized. Not having two players on the ice who have a knack to score goals is detrimental to their development, confidence, and ultimately, the team’s success. Both Tatar and Nyquist were supposed to have the baton handed to them as Henrik Zetterberg and Pavel Datsyuk slowed. But head coach Jeff Blashill, who admitted his own culpability in their regression, has to be better in deploying the two goal scorers. Nyquist and Tatar, should they see the ice time they were afforded in the past, should return to their true form. Blashill has promised more minutes and a greater insistence on them.
Key Storylines: Will the Red Wings entrust this team to younger, faster, and hungrier players? Looking at teams who have seen success by allowing their younger players to play, the Red Wings are at a critical juncture in the salary cap era. Ken Holland is being scrutinized by fans and analysts for his summer of “the same” where he brought back familiar faces at much higher prices–Darren Helm immediately comes to mind. This makes some fans leery as Holland promised big changes–though he did add Vanek, and Nielsen, players who should improve the scoring woes. Reports from Darren Dreger cite that Holland balked at the asking price for Jacob Trouba and while it can be speculated that either Anthony Mantha or Dylan Larkin were asked for, Holland felt comfortable enough with his defense, though others aren’t as sure. Much was written about the Wings’ need for defense, but Holland apparently is happy with what already sits in the pipeline.
The mindset for the Wings brass seems to be one that is fine limping into the playoffs only to be bounced early. It’s a team that has for too long, relied on veterans in a league that favors the younger, speedier player. Training camp will reveal clues early should Andreas Athanasiou and Mantha both be sent down, or be healthy scratches while Drew Miller, Luke Glendening and Steve Ott play on the fourth line. Will this team learn from the sins of season’s past? Or will the organization still continue its “just do enough” strategy to make the playoffs instead of looking ahead to what could be a very painful future?
Players Changing Positions Up Front In 2016-17
Often, players around the league will be thrust into new situations and responsibilities because of injury or ineffectiveness on the part of someone else. Sometimes they thrive in this new role, and sometimes they just can’t quite make it work. Here are a few players who will be changing roles this season:
Dylan Larkin – Moving to C – As Ansar Khan of Mlive writes in his latest column, the Red Wings are looking for an answer down the middle after the departure of Pavel Datsyuk to the KHL. Larkin, originally drafted as a centerman out of the US development program, will be moved back to the position for the upcoming year.
In his own words, he’s “going to have to work on faceoffs and little details that are going make me a better player all around and better in the defensive zone.” Indeed, if the Red Wings want to replace Datsyuk’s excellent two-way game, Larkin will need to concentrate on the defensive end a little bit more. He clearly has all the talent to make it work offensively.
William Nylander – Moving to W – In a case of the opposite transition, Nylander of the Maple Leafs is preparing to play much of this season on the wing of Auston Matthews, a pair that head coach Mike Babcock wants to keep together for a while to see if he can create some chemistry. While Babcock admits that Nylander may still take some draws on the right side, he won’t have to be as responsible for the defensive side of the centering a line – something that he struggled with last season.
Another possible Maple Leafs candidate for the transition is Mitch Marner, the uber-prospect who some think is too small to play center in the NHL. If he makes the squad, he’d be hard pressed to knock one of Matthews, Nazem Kadri or Tyler Bozak out of that role, leading to a potential pairing with one of them to start his young career.
Tomas Hertl – Moving to C – While this one actually happened midway through last season, it’s important to note that Hertl will be coming into this camp as a center, and will be pushed to develop and stay at the spot. He’s spent much of his career thus far on Joe Thornton‘s wing, but will now be a big piece of the Sharks down the middle. Even on the third line, Hertl can provide impact with his blazing speed and nifty offensive hands; if he’s to become a future first line centerman though, he’ll have to develop the defensive game just like Larkin.
Mikael Granlund – Moving to W – Another player who made the switch late last year, Granlund excelled on the wing and impressed GM Chuck Fletcher so much that he’ll be moved there again this year. The Wild’s signing of Eric Staal makes sure of that, as they now have a handful of centers that could suit up on the top two lines. Granlund will be allowed to focus on his offense, something that the Wild think will do him wonders. The 24-year old has provided strong play-making ability in his short career, racking up 101 assists in 240 games; from the wing, perhaps he’ll be able to build on his career-high goal total of 13 last season.
Red Wings Notes: Sheahan, Larkin, Renouf
The Detroit Free Press’ Helene St. James writes that former Red Wings goaltender and current Wings analyst Chris Osgood believes that Riley Sheahan can be an elite center. Though Sheahan had a career best 14 goals last season, he slumped in terms of total production, notching only 25 points after posting 36 a season prior. Osgood, believes that the best is yet to come for the 24-year-old forward:
“To me, he has a nice offensive ability, he’s responsible defensively, he’s really strong. I think if you put him in the right spot, he’ll flourish. He’ll become one of the best third-line centers in the NHL. And he’s getting to be that age now where he’s a little more mature. He’s played a lot. He had some rough patches last year, and he’s learned from them. He’s a tough kid and he perseveres. So to me, he’s the guy to really look to be kind of that third-line center, power forward, leader, that’s going to get a lot of more points.”
Sheahan will be slotted in as the third line center as Dylan Larkin and Frans Nielsen are expected to center the top two lines.
In other Red Wings news:
- Larkin was a healthy scratch in North America’s victory over Europe on Thursday, but Craig Custance tweets that Larkin will most likely see time on the fourth line during Sunday’s exhibition game against Team Europe. The the Detroit News’ Ted Kulfan reports that Larkin was excited nonetheless–prior to the game–about being part of the North American team and the World Cup of Hockey:
“Talking to other players that are in the tournament, they know we’re going to be pretty good. We’re just excited to get together and start playing some games. I don’t think we’re going to shock any teams. We’re definitely going to play our best. Teams know the kind of players we have. We hope to win the whole thing. It’s cool how players from Canada and the U.S. come together. It’s going to be a bit of a feeling out process, a lot of players from different teams, but it’ll go well and we’ll be an exciting team to watch.”
- MLive’s Brendan Savage pens a piece on Red Wings prospect Dan Renouf and how he hopes to take the same road to the Red Wings as current defenseman Danny DeKeyser did. Renouf is hoping that his career trajectory follows that of DeKeyser, who signed with Detroit as an undrafted free agent out of Western Michigan and has been a mainstay on the blue line since. Renouf played six games with Detroit’s AHL affiliate Grand Rapids but spent the majority of his time with the University of Maine. Renouf was the leading scorer for all defenseman with 15 points (6-9).
Red Wings Notes: Howard, Nyquist, Tatar, Zetterberg
Is Jimmy Howard now just a very expensive insurance option for the Detroit Red Wings? MLive’s Ansar Khan writes that the Red Wings were unsuccessful in trading their backup goaltender in the offseason and are now, for a lack of a better word, stuck with Howard and his very expensive contract. Khan argues that Howard provides stability in net, as the veteran netminder helped last season when Petr Mrazek struggled down the stretch. Though Mrazek supplanted Howard in the playoffs to reclaim his job, Howard still played that instrumental role in getting the Red Wings into the playoffs. Khan warns that consistency has been a concern with Howard, as well as his health. Should the Wings not unload him during the season, Khan expects Howard to be exposed in the expansion draft. If he isn’t selected, a buyout may be considered, along with shopping the New York native.
In other Red Wings news:
- Red Wings blog Winging in Motown has a piece about the line chemistry between forwards Gustav Nyquist and Tomas Tatar. Last season, the two forwards–considered by many to be the necessary goal scoring future of the Red Wings–took a step back. Nyquist it seemed took the brunt of the blame, as he failed to score more than 20 goals for the first time in his career as a full time player. The article, chock full of detailed statistical analysis, argues that the two could actually be quite good together should they be given an opportunity with a talented centerman (Dylan Larkin comes to mind). The statistics show that their uptick in production while separated was influenced heavily by who was on their respective line and revealed that Tatar benefitted greatly from a lot of time with Pavel Datsyuk as a linemate.
- With the news that Henrik Zetterberg would bow out of World Cup of Hockey due to a knee injury, the Windsor Star’s Bob Duff expounded a bit on how this affects the Red Wings. Writing for Hockeybuzz, Duff reports that the timetable for his return is not known and that the Red Wings scheduled an MRI to find the extent of the damage. Duff writes that the news couldn’t be worse for the Red Wings, who already lost Pavel Datsyuk to retirement and Niklas Kronwall to an injury of his own. Duff quoted Red Wings general manager Ken Holland as saying that Zetterberg would wait a couple of weeks before seeing if he could participate in training camp.
Potential 2016-17 Impact Rookies: Carlo, Fasching, Mantha, Matheson
Pro Hockey Rumors continues our series profiling this year’s crop of rookies, now moving on to the Atlantic Division and four more first-year players who could make a splash this season. You can see the first posts covering the Metro Division here and here.
Brandon Carlo (Boston) – Even though Boston has an aging roster and failed to qualify for the postseason in either of the last two seasons, the Bruins surprisingly might not be integrating any rookie talent to the roster to start the 2016-17 campaign. The team does have some quality young talent coming down the pipeline but most of those prospects are probably a year away and Boston wouldn’t appear to have much room on their roster for a first-year player. But if one of the kids does give the Bruins a reason to carry a rookie this year it may well be defenseman Brandon Carlo.
Carlo was chosen by Boston in the second-round of the 2015 entry draft with the 37th overall selection on the heels of a 25-point campaign with TriCity of the WHL. Listed at 6-foot-5 and 203 pounds, Carlo certainly has NHL size. He currently projects as a smooth skating, defense-first blue liner with enough tools to project as an above-average offensive contributor if he develops further.
The incomparable Zdeno Chara still anchors the Bruins defense corps but is 39-years-old and has seen his best years are in the rear-view mirror. Torey Krug is probably the club’s #2 defenseman – if not #1 – and Adam McQuaid is solid enough. But outside of those three players, the Bruins currently have Kevan Miller, John-Michael Liles and Colin Miller in the top-six on their depth chart. Assuming Carlo shows well at training camp, he could easily force his way onto the roster ahead of any one of the latter three names.
Boston’s assistant general manager, Scott Bradley, spoke highly of Carlo earlier this summer when discussing some of the club’s prospects including; Carlo, Jakub Zboril and Jeremy Lauzon.
“Obviously [you had to like] what Carlo did when he was brought in [to Providence] at the end. It just bodes well for what we have coming this year. Zboril and Lauzon are probably going back to junior, but Carlo is going to get a long look.”
Bradley’s comments certainly suggest Carlo has a leg up on his fellow top defense prospects coming into camp.
Hudson Fasching (Buffalo) – Last season, Buffalo broke camp with two supremely talented rookies, Jack Eichel and Sam Reinhart, in their opening night lineup. The duo would combine to score 47 goals and 98 points in 160 games for the Sabres. Hudson Fasching is unlikely to have that same type of impact in Buffalo this season but should earn a regular role and has the potential to provide some offense from the team’s bottom-six.
Fasching made his Buffalo debut last season, appearing in seven contests and netting his first career NHL goal. He signed his ELC with Buffalo after wrapping up his junior season at the University of Minnesota, where he scored 20 goals in 37 games for the Golden Gophers. Fasching also saw action in 10 games during the 2016 IIHF World Championship and tallied two assists playing for Team USA.
At 6-foot-2 and 216 pounds, Fasching has the size necessary to excel in a power forward role. Whether or not he can score enough to eventually fill a top-six scoring role with the Sabres is the question. But with talented players like Eichel, Reinhart, Ryan O’Reilly and Kyle Okposo around him, Fasching could produce points if he can develop chemistry with some combination of the aforementioned skaters.
Anthony Mantha (Detroit) – The development of Mantha could be key to Detroit’s ability to keep its 25-season playoff appearance streak in tact. Like Boston, Detroit’s core is aging with half of the 18 skaters expected to see regular ice time either turning or already at least 30-years-old during the 2016-17 season. Mantha has the skill and talent to join Dylan Larkin as future foundation pieces for Detroit.
Mantha got his first taste of NHL action last season, racking up two goals and three points in 10 games while averaging 11:42 of ice time per contest. He has also accumulated extensive pro experience playing for Detroit’s AHL affiliate in Grand Rapids. In 122 games with the Griffins, Mantha recorded 36 goals and 88 points. His experience playing for Red Wings head coach Jeff Blashill, both with Detroit and Grand Rapids, should benefit the big winger as he attempts to make the roster for the 2016-17 campaign.
The 6-foot-5, 214 pound Mantha is said to be an excellent skater with a terrific shot and release. Detroit is known for being patient with their prospects and allowing them to develop at a slow pace in the minor leagues. It’s possible Mantha will start the year in Grand Rapids but could position himself as one of the first players promoted in the event of an injury on the big club. If he does get his shot at some point with the Wings, Mantha could surprise some people.
Michael Matheson (Florida) – The Panthers boast a solid defense corps with plenty of options to flesh out the six man group. Keith Yandle, Aaron Ekblad, Alex Petrovic and Jason Demers comprise a skilled group of top-four blue liners while currently Mark Pysyk and Jakub Kindl are listed as the third pair on the team’s depth chart. Additionally, the team can also call on veteran Steven Kampfer to provide further depth.
There doesn’t seem to be room for a rookie to earn a spot but injuries are an unfortunate reality in hockey and Michael Matheson would likely be the first player Florida goes to if one of their regulars goes down. Matheson got into three games with the Panthers last year, going scoreless and averaging 17:32 of ice time. He’s also appeared in 59 AHL games over the last two seasons and recorded eight goals and 22 points during that time.
The former Boston College Eagle was the Panthers first-round pick, 23rd overall, in the 2012 draft. He’s known as an excellent skater and puck-handler with offensive instincts. With the NHL evolving into a speed and transition gme, Matheson would seem well-suited to one day play a regular role in the league. If things fall just right, that day could come as soon as this season.
Red Wings Notes: Green, de Haas, Trade Targets
MLive’s Ansar Khan had a write up on the impact that Detroit Red Wings defenseman Mike Green could have on the power play this season. Khan points out that while the Red Wing power play was ranked 13th in the league, it was still anemic during long stretches of the season. Khan speculates that Green could be placed on the first power play unit after Niklas Kronwall struggled with knee issues and consistency during the season. Green’s skating, puck handling, and play making ability could be the difference for a team trying anything to generate offense during the man advantage.
Green was the elusive right handed defenseman the Wings were looking for, signed to a three-year, $18MM deal prior to the 2015-16 season. Though the returns were not as high as Detroit would have wished, Green had five power play goals. Perhaps more time on the power play would be a positive for both Detroit and Green.
In other Red Wings news:
- Dana Wakiji writes that Red Wings prospect James de Haas is now one of the “older” guys as he completed his fifth development camp with Detroit. Wakiji reports that de Haas has one more season in college, and is gunning to make the Grand Rapids Griffins roster once the college season ends. Though he’s taken the “long road” through college to the pros, de Haas feels that the extra work–and longer road–has certainly paid off. De Haas hopes that he will “able to sign and make that jump. Obviously it’s all on me, it’s how I play, so I’m excited to prove to them I’m ready and show them. Just got to keep working and be ready for the opportunity.”
- Dan Rosen writes that the Red Wings may indeed still be looking at Kevin Shattenkirk. With 16 forwards signed, the Red Wings have some pieces to offer. Though Rosen prefaces it by saying it’s a “small chance” something happens in September to acquire Shattenkirk, he adds that it would take a high end prospect to land him. Rosen throws out Anthony Mantha as a possibility, wondering if Detroit would be willing to move the big forward or proven scorers Gustav Nyquist and Tomas Tatar. Rosen argues that anyone not named Dylan Larkin should be on the table for Shattenkirk.
Roster Crunch: Atlantic Division
Over the past few days, we’ve looked at the final few spots on the roster for both the Pacific and Central divisions. This time, we’ll turn our attention to the East starting with the Atlantic. This division will be in turmoil over the next few years, with clubs like the Buffalo Sabres and Toronto Maple Leafs going through slow, deliberate rebuilds, and perennial contending squads like the Detroit Red Wings finally starting to slow down.
Florida Panthers – While the Panthers have pretty much accomplished everything they set out to do this off-season – improving the blueline with Keith Yandle and Jason Demers, getting a capable replacement for Roberto Luongo in James Reimer, and locking up their young core – they failed in one, big $5.5MM way. Dave Bolland failed his physical and therefor couldn’t be bought out. He’ll try to prove he deserves some playing time this season, but may find himself buried in the AHL to make room for Jared McCann, the prize Florida received when they dealt Erik Gudbranson to the Canucks.
Red Wings Notes: Mantha, Saarijarvi, Little Caesars Arena
The 2016-17 training camp is a chance for Anthony Mantha to be this season’s Dylan Larkin writes Helene St. James. The 2013 first round pick has a chance to make the Red Wings roster out of camp, but it will mean greater attentiveness to his defensive game, and also showing the plentiful goal scoring that got him drafted. Mantha was on the fast track to the NHL when a broken leg during the 2014 prospect tournament slowed him, and from there, the highly touted prospect was ripped by some in upper management, and after a bounce back season in 2015-16, looks to once again be back on track to make the team.
But it won’t be easy. The Red Wings are well known for their reluctance to bring on young prospects and there is also a logjam at forward which has been well documented. St. James reports that his maturity will certainly help his case, as his cup of coffee with the team last year showed he wasn’t intimidated by being in the NHL. Still, the 22-year-old winger has his work cut out for him once September comes.
Other Red Wings news:
- Defenseman Vili Saarijarvi is another player on the Red Wings radar, and he hasn’t disappointed since being drafted by the club in 2015. St. James writes that the third round pick will spend more time seasoning in the OHL because of his shorter stature, and some more defensive polishing. The offensive minded d-man has a booming slapshot and speed–something if developed properly–could anchor the Red Wings blue line for years.
- A construction milestone was completed on the new Red Wings arena reports the Associated Press. The final piece of structural steel for the roof was placed. The report also states that “Olympia Development of Michigan says the piece of steel, in keeping with tradition, bears the signatures of the project’s ironworkers.” Little Caesars Arena will open for the 2017-18 season.
Free Agent Profile: Frans Nielsen
When you talk about free agents from Long Island this offseason, the conversation immediately goes to Kyle Okposo, the 28-year old winger who tied Steven Stamkos in points last season, or to Matt Martin, the bang-and-crash bottom six guy who everyone seems to want to add. Mostly forgotten, there is another UFA coming out of New York who should be commanding some attention.
Frans Nielsen has always been overlooked, perhaps because of his slender frame, or his Danish heritage – Denmark isn’t known for a flood of NHL players, though there have been some excellent ones – starting on draft day when he was selected deep into the third round. Nielsen has never earned more than $2.75MM in a single season, choosing to re-sign with the team who drafted him well before he became an unrestricted free agent in 2012.
He shouldn’t be overlooked any longer, as the 32-year old has put together an excellent career and comes into this offseason as a top-5 free agent, now that Stamkos and Yandle have both signed.
Potential Suitors
With, perhaps fittingly, almost no news coming out about Nielsen speaking with teams other than the Islanders, it’s a bit of a mystery where the Dane will finally end up. There are however a few teams who seem to fit with his ability and position perfectly.
In our UFA piece we had Nielsen going to the Red Wings, and after Stamkos re-signed this afternoon that seems even more a possibility. The club already has a young, up and coming center in Dylan Larkin who may be ready for the top line as soon as next season, so may not want to commit to the long-term deal that the other top option, David Backes, is surely to command.
While the Minnesota Wild have a young group of forwards who have shown the ability to play in the top six, they’ve also experimented with both Charlie Coyle and Mikael Granlund on the wing. If they think they’re more suited there, Nielsen makes a good choice as a steady veteran to put between them on the second line.
Expected Contract
Nielsen will be overlooked no more, as he hits this summer looking for one last big deal to finish his career on. If Backes goes early and the rest of the league views him as the next best option down the middle (which they should), he’ll look for a four or five year deal somewhere between $4.5 and $5MM per season. If he settles for a shorter term, he might be able to push just above that $5MM mark, but it would be very surprising to see him get close to $6MM.
Shattenkirk Open To Western Conference Trade
The Kevin Shattenkirk trade sweepstakes might just be bigger than previously thought. Despite the widespread belief that Shattenkirk would only sign long-term in the Eastern Conference, the offensive defenceman remains open to extend with some Western Conference teams, Jeremy Rutherford reports.
Rutherford tweeted that the door is not completely closed, but Shattenkirk is only open to some teams, presumably only contenders. That means, despite having the pieces to make a trade for Shattenkirk, the Edmonton Oilers do not appear to be in the running for the defender.
The St. Louis Blues writer for NHL.com Lou Korac believes the Blues asking price was Taylor Hall or Jordan Eberle. The high cost of acquiring Shattenkirk, plus the risk of him walking after this coming season could put a damper on some teams’ interest. However, the Bruins, Red Wings, Sabres, and Flyers have all inquired about trading for Shattenkirk. According to Joey Alfieri of NBC Sports, the asking price was David Pastrnak and both of the Bruins first round picks from Boston, or Dylan Larkin from the Red Wings.
Jordan Neumann, Shattenkirk’s agent, told ESPN’s Craig Custance that based on their conversations with St. Louis, they expected Shattenkirk to be dealt over the draft weekend.
Shattenkirk has one year left on his contract, with $4.25MM cap hit. According to CapFriendly, Shattenkirk will make $5.2MM in real dollars.