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Diagnosing Nashville’s Underwhelming Start To The Season

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To say the start of the 2024-25 campaign has been disappointing for the Nashville Predators is somewhat of an understatement. Nashville finished last year as the top wild-card team in the Western Conference with 99 points and handed out nearly $140MM in contracts this past offseason keeping around some old faces and bringing in some new ones.

The aggressive offseason led to skyrocketing expectations for the Predators organization, which have gone unrealized through the first month of the regular season. The team has a 5-9-2 record through 16 games, putting them dead last in the league.

This leads to the question, why exactly are the Predators not only underperforming but wholly noncompetitive?

Nashville’s special teams have been quite good to start the regular season. The team sits 11th in powerplay percentage thanks to a 22.22% conversion rate and has the league’s second-ranked penalty kill with a 90.91% success rate. Both percentages are better than Nashville’s playoff-clinching roster from a year ago with a 20-team jump in the latter category.

If the special teams are not the issue and have even improved year-on-year, reductive reasoning would indicate that the Predators’ 5-on-5 play is the culprit for the poor start. Unfortunately, although Nashville’s 5-on-5 play from last year has depressed, it doesn’t explain the discrepancy in success.

According to Hockey Reference, the Predators have managed a 51.3% CorsiFor% to start the year, which puts them around the league average. It’s a slight downturn from the team’s 51.8% output from last season, but it’s still better than six playoff-bound teams from a year ago. Outside of controlling the puck and looking primarily at offensive generation, Nashville is 15th in the league with a 31.2 xGF which is two expected goals better than the 10-2-3 Minnesota Wild.

Still, after looking further under the hood, two major areas of Nashville’s game need some work. There have been 222 high-danger chances (shots from approximately in the slot, or rebounds) generated in the Predators’ 16 matchups this year with the team earning 116 of those chances. However, they are only converting on those chances at a 7.2% rate putting them 29th in the league. On the flip side, Nashville’s opponents are converting 11.9% of the time, also 29th in the league.

The other discrepancy is the Predators’ -20 axDiff (actual goal differential minus expected goal differential) which is the worst in the league. This indicates that Nashville is generating an adequate number of good scoring chances but isn’t converting at the expected rate.

A diagnosis of the issue isn’t good enough for a team still looking to make the playoffs this season. The Predators will want a prescription to resolve the problems on the ice and there are a few different pathways they can go.

First, to put it bluntly, a playoff-caliber team can’t compete with a combination of Colton Sissons and Juuso Parssinen centering the team’s second line. The two have combined for seven points this season with a -13 rating and an E +/- of -4.6. When taking a look at high-danger conversion or prevention, there are a couple of names that could help out Nashville.

Kyle Palmieri, a veteran forward for the New York Islanders, immediately jumps off the page as an offense-generating candidate. Palmieri has accrued a 14.0 xGF this season which would be good for second on the Predators behind Roman Josi. According to Natural Stat Trick, Palmieri sits 20th in the league in high-danger scoring conversions. This would allow Nashville to move Stamkos to center the team’s second-line opening a spot on the right wing for Palmieri.

Given that Mathew Barzal and Anthony Duclair are currently on the injured reserve it’s unlikely the Islanders would agree to this trade now. Still, with a desperate need for cap space New York may be willing to entertain offers on any expiring contract. Unfortunately, Palmieri doesn’t project as a long-term answer for Nashville given that he’s 33 years old, but he would at least allow them to kick the can down the road for now.

If the Predators seek out a player who limits opposing teams from converting on high-danger chances look no further than the Detroit Red Wings. Andrew Copp has averaged an ’on-ice high danger shot attempts against per 60 minutes’ of 1.34 during 5-on-5 play which would put him second on Nashville just above Ryan O’Reilly. He’s also formidable enough in the faceoff dot to give the Predators the confidence to leave Stamkos on the right wing.

The downside of acquiring Copp is the contractual complications. Copp is earning $5.625MM for the next three years and has a 10-team no-trade list in his contract. This isn’t to say that Nashville is one of the 10 teams on Copp’s no-trade last but it’s still a hurdle to clear. The Predators could gauge Detroit’s interest in retaining some of the remaining salary of Copp’s deal and even include Sissons in the return package who’s making $2.86MM this year and next.

The hypothetical trade wouldn’t project as a ’season-punting’ move by the Red Wings either. They’ve already shown a willingness to trade legitimate NHL talent (i.e. Olli Maatta) to create room for some of their up-and-coming players. Detroit, a team that has struggled to produce offense this season, could strike two birds with one stone in this move by clearing a spot for Vladimir Tarasenko or Marco Kasper on the team’s second line while opening up additional cap space.

One defensive pairing sticking out like a sore thumb in Nashville is the combination of Jeremy Lauzon and Alexandre Carrier. The two have played the most minutes together compared to any other combination on Nashville’s blue line (188.2) and have combined for a team-worst 40.2% xGoals % according to MoneyPuck.

Marcus Pettersson of the Pittsburgh Penguins immediately comes to mind as a viable trade candidate to replace one of Lauzon or Carrier on the team’s second defensive pairing. Petterson currently leads the Penguins in blocked shots (27) and carries a contextually impressive E +/- of -0.8 while playing next to one of the league’s worst blue-liners on the defensive side of the puck. He’s in the last year of his contract and should find himself on the trade block further down the season if Pittsburgh continues at their current pace.

This list of solutions for Nashville isn’t exhaustive as there are plenty of directions they could ultimately take. The organization could wait things out and hope the gap between expected and actual goals narrows over the next few weeks. Still, given the nature of their aggressive approach to this past offseason, the Predators may want to make a move sooner rather than later before the bottom completely falls out on their 2024-25 aspirations.

Jets Reclaim Kaapo Kähkönen From Avalanche, Place Logan Stanley On IR

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Nov. 12, 1:33 p.m.: The Jets confirmed Kähkönen’s claim and also announced they’ve placed defenseman Logan Stanley on injured reserve retroactive to Nov. 9. It was reported earlier Tuesday that Stanley would miss the team’s three-game road trip this week with a mid-body injury. He’ll be eligible to come off IR when the Jets return home.

Nov. 12, 1:05 p.m.: The Jets submitted a claim and were the only team to do so, reports Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet. He’ll report to the AHL’s Manitoba Moose.

Nov. 11: After the Avalanche claimed Kaapo Kähkönen off waivers from the Jets last month, the team announced they’ve placed him back on the wire today.

Issues with Kähkönen’s work visa significantly delayed his arrival in the Mile High City. Colorado claimed Kähkönen from Winnipeg on Oct. 11, and he was held out of action for over a week until the Avs got him some AHL action on a conditioning loan.

Kähkönen made two appearances on his brief stint with the Colorado Eagles, his first minor-league action since the 2019-20 campaign. He lost both contests but still put up solid numbers, recording a .919 SV% and 2.57 GAA. He’d been on the NHL roster since Oct. 29 but only made one appearance for the Avs, allowing four goals on 20 shots in a loss to the Lightning on Halloween Eve. He’s dressed as a backup or been a healthy scratch for every game since.

24-year-old Justus Annunen has been passable, and starter Alexandar Georgiev appears to be getting his feet back under him with a .904 SV% in his last three games. Thus, there was no longer much of a need for the Avs to carry three goalies on their roster, especially with injuries continuing to plague their forward group. Kähkönen, who signed a one-year, $1MM deal with the Jets in free agency over the summer, now must hope for a third team to take a flyer on him this season if he wants to keep an NHL roster spot.

If Winnipeg submits a claim for Kähkönen and is the only team to do so, they may directly assign him to their AHL affiliate, the Manitoba Moose. The 28-year-old has a 49-68-15 record, four shutouts, a 3.34 GAA, and a .898 SV% in 140 career NHL appearances over the past six years.

Maple Leafs Reassign Matt Benning

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Nov. 12: Benning cleared waivers, per Friedman. The Maple Leafs will likely continue to explore trade options, which may be easier now that an acquiring team could send him to the minors without risking losing him on the wire. He’s been assigned to the AHL’s Toronto Marlies to give him a chance to play in the meantime.

Nov. 11: The Maple Leafs have placed newly-acquired defenseman Matt Benning on waivers, Chris Johnston of The Athletic and TSN reports.

Toronto acquired Benning, 30, from the Sharks with a pair of draft picks in exchange for Timothy Liljegren nearly two weeks ago. It was immediately apparent the veteran was included for roster/salary cap purposes and that he wasn’t expected to stick around with the Leafs. Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet quickly reported that they were looking to move the blue-liner, while James Mirtle of The Athletic suggested last week that Toronto would waive Benning in short order if they couldn’t find a trade partner.

The Leafs and Benning will now hope that another team takes a flyer on him for no acquisition cost over the next 24 hours. He has one season after this remaining on the four-year, $5MM contract he signed with San Jose as a free agent in 2022. He carries a $1.25MM cap hit and will cost $100K against the cap for the Maple Leafs if he clears waivers and is assigned to AHL Toronto.

Benning, an Edmonton native, has not played for the Maple Leafs since the trade and has been a healthy scratch in six straight games. Before the trade, he went without a point and had a -5 rating in seven games for the Sharks while averaging a career-low 13:02 per contest. He had issues staying in the lineup with San Jose, too, going four straight games as a healthy scratch in late October.

In fact, Benning has made just 21 appearances since the beginning of last season. He missed the last four-plus months of 2023-24 after undergoing hip surgery in December.

The 6’1″ right-shot defender was a sixth-round pick by the Bruins in 2012, although he never signed with them and instead began his NHL career with his hometown Oilers after signing there as a free agent in 2016. In 464 NHL games in nine seasons, Benning has 17 goals, 85 assists and 102 points while averaging 16:37 per game.

Blackhawks Reassign Andreas Athanasiou

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Nov. 12, 1:12 p.m.: Athanasiou passed through waivers unclaimed and will be on his way to Rockford, according to Friedman.

Nov. 11, 1:05 p.m.: Athanasiou is indeed on waivers today, per Friedman.

Nov. 11, 8:14 a.m.: Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet reports that the Blackhawks will place veteran center Andreas Athanasiou on waivers this week, potentially as early as Monday. The move will leave Chicago with an open roster spot, although it’s unclear what they plan to do with it.

Athanasiou, 30, was signed to a two-year, $8.5MM extension in 2023 after a resurgent 20-goal, 40-point showing with the Blackhawks the preceding season. The club banked on Athansiou’s demonstrated ceiling when healthy and his historical status as one of the league’s fastest skaters to help energize their top nine through their rebuild, even with injuries limiting Athanasiou to fewer than 70 games all but three times in his decade-long career.

The pending waiver placement underscores how poorly things have gone for Athanasiou in the year-plus since. He missed 53 games last season with a lower-body injury, and while he’s managed to avoid IR this season, he’s still barely played. Athanasiou has no points and is averaging 9:36 per game through five contests, and he’s now sat in the press box for nine straight games dating back to Oct. 22.

Even when healthy last season, Athanasiou was limited to two goals and seven assists in 28 appearances. The high-motor pivot has broadly posted relatively solid possession numbers during his time in Chicago, and his ability to slot in at center and on either wing carries some value. Still, he’s not producing enough offensively for his skill set to justify a spot in the lineup or his $4.25MM cap hit.

If he was on a league-minimum deal, or close to it, there’s a high chance at least one team would have banked on his past upside as a 15-to-30-goal scorer in middle-six usage. But his struggles the past two seasons mean no team is willing to risk the pickup at such a high cap hit, even if he’s slated to become an unrestricted free agent next summer.

Teams interested in Athanasiou will likely wait until after he clears waivers to initiate or accelerate trade talks with the Blackhawks, who could flip him to a club with some salary retained and the newfound flexibility of an AHL assignment. Chicago still has two available retention slots and could make him as cheap as $2.125MM against the cap for an acquiring team, who could bury him in the minors for a $975K penalty, compared to the $3.1MM he’ll still cost against Chicago’s books after he assumedly clears and is assigned to AHL Rockford.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

NHL Names Ken Holland Hockey Operations Consultant

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The NHL’s hockey operations department announced Tuesday that they’ve hired longtime Red Wings and Oilers general manager and Hockey Hall of Fame executive Ken Holland as a consultant.

It’s the logical next step for the 69-year-old Holland. His time in teams’ front offices appeared to come to an end – at least as a general manager – when the Oilers opted not to renew his contract at the end of last season.

“We are delighted to welcome Ken to NHL Hockey Operations, where he will provide invaluable insight from his decades in the game as a player, scout and executive. He offers unmatched expertise in a wide range of areas,” NHL senior executive VP of hockey ops Colin Campbell said.

Holland had been the GM and president of the Oilers’ hockey ops since the 2019-20 campaign. Before his time in Edmonton, he served as the Red Wings’ general manager from 1997-98 to 2018-19, winning three Stanley Cups and 10 division titles.

Holland had a brief playing career as a goaltender in the Maple Leafs, Red Wings and Hartford Whalers organizations before stepping into a scouting role with Detroit upon his retirement in 1985. The Red Wings promoted him to their director of amateur scouting after two years and again to assistant GM in 1994.

The British Columbia native also served as Canada’s GM for the 2006 World Championship. However, the team led by star youngsters Patrice Bergeron and Sidney Crosby was the only Canadian team between 2003 and 2009 not to medal at the event.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Central Notes: Heinola, Stanley, Bedard, Predators

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Jets defense prospect Ville Heinola has had his past couple of seasons derailed by injuries. 2023-24 saw him play no NHL games and 41 AHL games before an ankle injury that required surgery ended his campaign. The 2019 first-round pick was then expected to compete for a roster spot after Winnipeg lost Brenden Dillon to free agency and bought out Nate Schmidt, but he didn’t even partake in training camp after an infection stemming from the screws placed in his ankle to repair the fracture arose during physicals.

The 23-year-old is getting closer to a return to play, though. He started skating on his own at the end of October and was spotted at practice Tuesday without a non-contact designation, team color analyst Mitchell Clinton reports.

Heinola is on injured reserve and would require waivers to head back to Manitoba on a full-time basis. However, the Jets could allow him to get back up to game speed in the AHL by assigning him on a conditioning loan, which could last for up to two weeks.

The left-shot Finn has never logged more than 12 NHL appearances in a single season. He has 35 career games under his belt more than five years after being drafted, recording 11 points with a -6 rating while averaging 15:15 per contest.

It’s not all good injury news for the Jets, though. Logan Stanley sustained a mid-body injury in Saturday’s win over the Stars and isn’t traveling with the team on their three-game road swing this week, head coach Scott Arniel said (via Clinton). The hulking 6’7″ defender already missed the first four games of the campaign after undergoing minor knee surgery. When in the lineup, he has three points and a +6 rating in 11 games while averaging 15:13 per night. His customarily poor possession numbers haven’t changed despite Winnipeg’s hot start – he’s only managed to control 45.5% of shot attempts at even strength, a career-low.

Elsewhere in the Central Division:

  • Blackhawks sophomore Connor Bedard is off to a slow-ish start with just three goals through his first 16 games, although he has added 10 assists for 13 points. A horrid 5.8 shooting percentage will ultimately improve and he likely deserves to be on the score sheet more than he is, but he’s still looking to jumpstart his game and has a sense of urgency about doing it. “You can look everywhere, but just feeling like I’m having more impact on the game,” Bedard told The Athletic’s Scott Powers on Monday. “I felt like earlier in the year, I was making a lot of plays, pretty dangerous out there. Lately, I’ve been (making) less of an impact and not really making a difference, so hopefully I can contribute more.”
  • The Predators are still last in the league with a 5-9-2 record, but general manager Barry Trotz foresees improvement on the horizon, he told Nicholas J. Cotsonika of NHL.com after yesterday’s overtime loss to the Avalanche. “We got off to a bad start,” Trotz said. “We tried to be something that we weren’t. I think we’re coming around. After the 0-5 start, we’re 5-4-1 in the last 10. We’ve played some good teams. I see us being more consistent, getting more balance in our game.”

Canucks Recall Arshdeep Bains

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The Canucks announced Tuesday that they’ve recalled winger Arshdeep Bains from AHL Abbotsford.

Bains, 23, will likely make his eighth appearance of the season tonight against the Flames. The Canucks needed another forward on the active roster with Dakota Joshua not quite ready to come off injured reserve and Brock Boeser in the press box while he nurses the upper-body injury he sustained on a check to the head from Kings winger Tanner Jeannot on Nov. 7, which resulted in a three-game suspension.

The Surrey, British Columbia native has been sent between leagues on numerous occasions as the Canucks take advantage of his waiver-exempt status to accrue cap space on off days. The 6’0″, 184-lb winger has averaged 11:40 per game when in the lineup, scoring once and adding a -3 rating in seven appearances. His 0.14 points per game are the lowest among any Vancouver forward, although his 8.81 hits per 60 minutes rank fourth.

An undrafted free agent signing out of the WHL’s Red Deer Rebels in 2022, Bains has looked outmatched so far in his NHL minutes. He also went pointless with a -5 rating in eight appearances last season. This season, the Canucks have been out-attempted 86-75 with Bains on the ice at 5-on-5 – he’s the only Canucks forward on the active roster with a negative differential.

As such, Bains will likely be ferried off the roster on a more permanent basis when both Boeser and Joshua are back in the fold in the coming days. He’s made his first two AHL appearances of 2024-25 for Abbotsford over the past week, notching one goal and three assists.

Bains is in the final season of his entry-level contract and will be a restricted free agent next summer. He is not projected to have arbitration rights.

Senators Reassign Zack Ostapchuk, Shane Pinto To Return

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Senators center Shane Pinto will indeed make his return to the lineup tonight against the Maple Leafs, TSN 1200 Ottawa confirmed. While he was never on injured reserve and didn’t need to be activated, the team still announced that Zack Ostapchuk was returned to AHL Belleville this morning after being recalled yesterday for insurance if Pinto couldn’t play.

It’s a lovely birthday present for Pinto, who turns 24 today. The 6’3″ center has been out of action since sustaining an undisclosed injury against Utah on Oct. 22.

Late last month, head coach Travis Green declared to reporters that the team had designated Pinto as week-to-week. He’s been on the verge of returning for the past few days, with TSN 1200 Ottawa also relaying Monday that Pinto would be a likely option in Toronto tonight.

Pinto had one goal and two assists with a -3 rating through the season’s first six games. He recorded 10 shots on goal and averaged 17:31 per game while winning 44.4% of his draws. Pinto also continued his upward trend in the possession department, controlling a career-best 54.7% of shot attempts at even strength. Ottawa fared far worse without Pinto on the ice, only controlling 47.2% of shot attempts.

Pinto, the first pick of the second round in 2019, has only played one entire NHL season. He lost most of what would have been his rookie season in 2021-22, playing only five games before needing season-ending shoulder surgery. A half-season suspension for violating the NHL’s gambling policies also took a significant bite out of his 2023-24 campaign. But he played in all 82 games for the Sens in 2022-23, scoring a career-high 20 goals and winning 52.1% of his draws.

The New York native spent most of his time in the lineup earlier this season centering Ottawa’s third line between Michael Amadio and David Perron. He won’t have Perron as his linemate tonight as the veteran remains on paternity leave. However, he will have Amadio and Noah Gregor flanking him, per Bruce Garrioch of Postmedia.

Ostapchuk, 21, has suited up in six games for the Senators amid a flurry of paper transactions over the past few weeks. He’s mainly replaced Pinto as their third-line center without the additional special teams time, averaging 10:25 per game. He recorded his first NHL point, an assist, back in his first appearance of the season against the Blues on Oct. 29. With Pinto back in the lineup, Ostapchuk is likely ticketed for a lengthier stay with Belleville, where he has one goal and four assists in six games to start 2024-25.

Michael Hutchinson Signs In Finland

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Unrestricted free agent goaltender Michael Hutchinson has signed with SaiPa in Finland for the rest of the 2024-25 season, the Liiga club announced Tuesday.

Hutchinson, 34, attempted to continue his career stateside a couple of months ago on a professional tryout with the Devils but was unsuccessful. The move to Finland will mark his first time playing overseas and put a pause on his 14-year run in the North American pros with multiple NHL, AHL and ECHL clubs.

A third-round pick by the Bruins back in 2008, Hutchinson spent a few seasons playing for Boston’s minor-league affiliates but was non-tendered in the 2013 offseason before signing with the Jets. Hutchinson emerged as a legitimate NHL option in Winnipeg, finishing eighth in Calder Trophy voting in the 2014-15 season after recording a 21-10-5 record, .914 SV% and 2.38 GAA in 38 appearances.

Most of those numbers would stand as career-best, though. Hutchinson spent a few more seasons in Winnipeg as part of a three-goalie rotation with Ondřej Pavelec and a young Connor Hellebuyck before he was demoted to the minors for most of the 2017-18 campaign.

He never rebounded into being a full-time NHLer and instead embarked on a career worthy of the journeyman tag. Since 2018, Hutchinson has played spot duty for the Panthers, Maple Leafs, Avalanche, Blue Jackets, and Red Wings, suiting up primarily for those clubs’ AHL affiliates but often getting between one and 15 NHL starts per season.

The 6’3″ netminder spent last year with Detroit, making 33 saves on 36 shots in a loss to the Devils in late December 2023 in his only NHL appearance of the season. In the AHL for Grand Rapids, he struggled as the backup to top Red Wings prospect Sebastian Cossa, recording a .892 SV% and 2.89 GAA with a 14-14-3 record in 32 appearances.

At this age, a move overseas more than likely signals the end of Hutchinson’s NHL career. If so, he closes with a 57-62-18 record, six shutouts, a 2.94 GAA, and a .902 SV% in 154 games played in parts of 11 seasons. He also made four playoff appearances for the Avs in the 2020 bubble, recording a .910 SV% and 2.75 GAA.

Hutchinson will have the opportunity to take over as SaiPa’s starter after former Jets prospect Oskari Salminen, who appeared in 15 of their 20 games this season, abruptly left the team and signed with rival Liiga club JYP last week.

Maple Leafs Recall Alex Steeves

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The Maple Leafs announced they’ve recalled forward Alex Steeves from AHL Toronto under emergency conditions ahead of tonight’s contest against the Senators. The news confirms that captain Auston Matthews will not be coming off injured reserve after being labeled doubtful by head coach Craig Berube yesterday.

They still would have had 12 forwards available without Matthews since Connor Dewar came off long-term injured reserve last Friday. Thus, Steeves’ recall indicates that Max Domi or William Nylander could be questionable for tonight after missing Monday’s practice for maintenance days.

Steeves, 25 next month, was an undrafted free agent signing out of Notre Dame in March 2021. He’s suited up mainly in the AHL since then, but he has a few NHL appearances under his belt and has played at least one game in the last three seasons. The 6’0″ New Hampshire native has one assist, a -4 rating, 10 hits, and six giveaways in seven career games. He’s recorded six shots on goal and averaged 8:14 per game.

Steeves, who can play center and wing, has grown into a prolific AHL scoring force despite his lack of NHL point production. He recorded a career-high 27 goals and 57 points in 67 games for the Marlies last season, and he leads the club in scoring through the early going of 2024-25 with nine goals and three assists for 12 points in 10 games.

The Maple Leafs had an open roster spot after placing Max Pacioretty on IR on Monday, so no corresponding transaction is required. Toronto’s $1.83MM in current cap space under their LTIR pool is plenty to absorb Steeves’ $775K cap hit, per PuckPedia.

Steeves had his first go-around with restricted free agency this past summer after his entry-level contract expired. He waited until August to re-sign but eventually put pen to paper on a one-year, two-way deal ($775K/$300K) to return to the Maple Leafs organization. Since he’ll be 25 next summer with fewer than 80 NHL games played and four professional seasons under his belt, he’ll be eligible to test unrestricted free agency via Group VI status.

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