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PHR Mailbag: CHL-NCAA Movement, Salary Cap, Goaltending, Bruins, August 15 Free Agents

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include a look at salary cap spending, several goaltending questions, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in one of our next two columns.

BlackAce57: I don’t know if it’s something that’s been happening for a while or a growing trend, but are more Canadian junior players going to US colleges when they turn 18 now that NIL is a factor? Do you think this will keep increasing?

This isn’t something that has been going on for very long now.  It’s actually the first year where CHL players are no longer viewed as professionals by the NCAA, thereby making players from those leagues eligible to go to college.  NIL money aside, simply changing the eligibility to allow major junior players to go play Division I hockey was going to create a big group of people wanting to make the change.  The ability to potentially be paid much more than what the CHL-allowable stipend is (between $50 and $150 in Canadian dollars per week) only intensified that interest.

I don’t expect this to be something that keeps increasing to any sort of significant degree.  In reality, there are only so many spots available each year as there are only so many Division I teams and there will still be USHL and USHS players vying for some of those.  That means there has to be some sort of a limit on the movement in the grand scheme of things.

Having said that, I suspect we will see even more turnover in the NCAA than we’ve seen in recent years since the transfer portal came into play.  There will still be activity there while more players than we normally see will graduate to the pros after a year or two of eligibility.  Then, there will be efforts to try to get that top recruit which could result in some players getting cut.

I think what we’ve seen this year is the start but there shouldn’t be a huge jump next year.  I expect we’ll see an incremental jump in transfer activity over the next couple of years, a good chunk of which will probably come from the CHL before the volume of annual movement starts to settle.  In the meantime, it will be interesting to see if the CHL is able to do anything to retain some of its top talent or if it will settle in as a league that skews a little younger age-wise compared to what it has been in the past.

yeasties: With the cap going up so much and many teams apparently choosing to maintain a working reserve this year, do you think GMs will maintain this discipline over the long term, or will teams eventually spend up to the cap again?

I’m not sure how much of the underspent cap is something that came from a choice or rather just from a lack of options.  This wasn’t a great UFA class and it’s that market that has a tendency to drive prices upward.  Not every team has had to contend with it yet either.  If you had a team with a lot of core players on long-term deals already, the bulk of the heavy lifting cap-wise is already done, making it easier to have that cushion.  We’re only a few months into this higher Upper Limit projection so a lot can and will change.

It’ll be interesting to see how many teams are able to keep those reserves.  Per PuckPedia, there are 13 teams with $2.1MM or less of cap space already.  For teams near the higher end of that, even one injury can derail a lot of those plans and odds being odds, there will be injuries.  The ones with a million or two more (of which there are four) should have more wiggle room on the injury front while the rest should have ample cap room no matter what.  That is a little abnormal compared to what we’ve seen.

I do think it’s a sign of things to come, however.  The reality is that not every team is going to be willing to spend to the max as that’s a pretty significant year-over-year increase in player costs.  Ideally, profits should be going up as well to offset that but some teams are much more profitable than others; not all will increase revenues at a rate that matches or exceeds the increase in costs.  I can see a scenario a few years from now where we’re talking about budget room more often as fewer teams aim to spend to the ceiling and instead will work within a budget with potentially room to spend if they find themselves in contention.

I’m also curious to see what the impact of significantly restricting double-retention trades in the new CBA will be.  As a refresher, right now, teams can trade a player with retention with that player getting immediately rerouted with further retention to another team.  That type of trade has become quite common leading up to the trade deadline in recent years.  But this season will be the last of those as starting in 2026-27, there will be a 75-day in-season requirement before a player whose contract has already been retained on once can be moved with retention again.

Knowing that the double-retention option is going to largely be off the table, teams will need to have considerably more cap space banked by the trade deadline.  I expect that some squads will place a higher target on their cap room to start the season to account for that, meaning fewer will spend so tight to the cap.  So, I don’t think this is an outlier but rather the beginning of a new shift in spending policy, one that will take a few years to really establish itself.

PyramidHeadcrab: Now that rosters have settled a bit, who has the…

– Worst goaltending roster?
– Best goaltending roster?
– Best goaltending prospects?
– Goaltender most likely to find an extra gear in 25-26?

1) I’m going to go with Columbus, especially as a team that feels it has playoff aspirations.  Elvis Merzlikins has shown that he’s not a capable starter and hasn’t been for several years now.  While they re-signed Ivan Provorov and Dante Fabbro, they haven’t actually improved the back end which could have been a way to improve the goaltending.  Meanwhile, Jet Greaves had quite the finish to last season but before that, he had merely been okay in limited action while his AHL numbers are decent but not necessarily dominant.  Is he the solution?  I’m not certain about that yet and if you have questions about both goalies heading into the season, that’s not ideal.  There are teams with similarly iffy goaltending (especially in that division) but playoff hopes breaks the tie here.

2) This might be a surprise on paper but I’m going to go with Toronto.  Anthony Stolarz showed that his 2023-24 breakout wasn’t a fluke and he was quite impactful when healthy.  Joseph Woll wasn’t quite as impactful but was above average as well.  Both were in the top 11 league-wide in Goals Saved Above Expected, per MoneyPuck.  The fact that they’re among the lowest-spending teams at the position makes things more impressive.  There are teams with a better starter but also a much weaker backup.  An injury to the top dog would be a huge issue but for the Maple Leafs, going to Woll as a near-term starter wouldn’t be a massive drop-off.  Add to that a roster that looks more inclined to play a defensive game and it bodes well for them for the upcoming season.

3) For the single-best goalie prospect, I’ve seen no reason not to pick Yaroslav Askarov.  He has been highly touted for quite some time now and while he’s in for a rough year in San Jose this season, I think he can still be a franchise netminder.  But you said prospects, as in plural.  The Sharks would still be up there with Joshua Ravensbergen getting added in the draft but I might lean ever so slightly to the Red Wings who are headlined by Trey Augustine and Sebastian Cossa.  Cossa is coming along well in the minors while Augustine has been a strong NCAA goalie with a solid showing internationally as well.  Michal Pradel was one of the better goalies in this draft class and he’s in the mix too.  Goaltending has been an issue for Detroit for a while but the future looks bright there.

4) I’m going to pick Spencer Knight in Chicago.  This is his first season as being an undisputed number one goalie and he’s still relatively unproven with fewer than 100 appearances in the NHL.  It’s also a contract year in which he’ll be looking to cement the notion that he is their starter of the future.  I don’t think the Blackhawks will be particularly good this year but I expect Knight to steal some games and make the team a lot more competitive night in and night out than they have been the last couple of years.  I think that will qualify as finding that extra gear.

VonBrewski: Again with Boston….no direction by MGT.

They have the draft capital to go and get a McTavish or Rossi. They might need to move some salary (hello, Korpisalo) to get it done.

I think you’re making an incorrect assumption on this one.  Boston’s draft capital is better than what it was but assuming you don’t want them moving their own first-round picks, having an extra Toronto and Florida first-rounder isn’t good enough to be the foundation of an offer for either player, at least one that Anaheim or Minnesota might be inclined to take.  And with $2MM in cap space per PuckPedia, it would take much more than clearing Joonas Korpisalo’s $3MM to afford the players on the deals they’re looking for.  They’re not willingly signing long-term deals around the $5MM mark.

Let’s look at each situation a little closer.  Despite plenty of speculation, there remains no credible reporting that Anaheim has the slightest bit of interest in moving Mason McTavish or that McTavish is looking to be traded.  The absence of a contract isn’t evidence of that but rather the reality that an offer sheet isn’t coming and with no arbitration rights, it becomes a staring contest.  We see it every year with several players and they all wind up re-signing.  The Ducks have been active this summer in terms of trying to upgrade their roster with the hopes of making the playoffs.  They also have one of the deepest prospect pools in the NHL.  Accordingly, moving McTavish for a futures-based return doesn’t make much sense on either front.  If he’s moving, they’re getting a young core player back; they have no reason to accept less.

As for Marco Rossi, it has been reported that the Wild already declined a trade package that included a late-lottery first-round pick and that was before the few decent free agent center options had all re-signed or signed elsewhere.  So, why would they go that route now with a package that’s probably going to have a lesser pick going the other way?  (Again, assuming that you’re not suggesting the Bruins move their own first-round selections.)  Minnesota has been consistent in feeling that if they were to move Rossi, they’d want an impact center coming the other way if they couldn’t land one in free agency.  I don’t see a Boston middleman that fits.  Elias Lindholm’s contract isn’t great, Pavel Zacha only has two years left, and the rest are either unproven or are more bottom-six pieces.  For what they’re believed to be looking for in a possible trade for Rossi, I don’t think the Bruins are a match.  Ultimately, it’s going to be a staring contest between Rossi and the Wild for a little while longer before Minnesota probably gets its way with a bridge deal.

Dale M: How many August 15th expiring rights were either signed, or set adrift by their drafted teams?

Did Boston sign anybody?

If we look at our list of August 15th free agents from early July, not a lot has changed.  Chase McLane (Nashville) and Ryder Donovan (Vegas) remain with their respective organizations under technicalities but neither of them would qualify as notable prospects at this stage.  The other 29 players all saw their NHL rights lapse yesterday.

At this point, no one has signed yet which isn’t much surprise.  Players technically didn’t become free to sign until today and, well, it’s a Saturday in the middle of August; it’s not exactly a prime day for transactions.  There isn’t going to be flood of signings.  Honestly, I’m not sure there are going to be many signings period from this group, especially around half of them are on minor-league deals already.

There’s basically one headliner from this list that feels like a safe bet to land an NHL contract and that’s Dominic James.  He spurned an offer from Chicago on the heels of a 14-goal, 30-point campaign with the University of Minnesota-Duluth and his doing so suggests he thinks he can find an entry-level pact from a team with possibly a better shot at getting to the NHL quicker.  Beyond that, there are some possible AHL deal candidates (Red Savage and Aidan Hreschuk) but not much more.  It’s not a great group of players to get too excited about.

Photo courtesy of Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images.

Central Notes: Broberg, Holloway, Desnoyers, Mammoth

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What a difference a year can make.  Last summer, Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway were looking at low-cost one-year offers from Edmonton, eventually leading them to sign two-year offer sheets with the Blues that ultimately weren’t matched.  Both players went on to have breakout years, playing big roles in their run to the playoffs.  They’re now extension-eligible and in line for much bigger deals this time around.  In a recent mailbag column, Jeremy Rutherford of The Athletic posits (subscription link) that the players could plausibly eye a contract between $8MM and $9MM apiece.  Broberg had 29 points in 68 games last season and logged 20:30 per night of ice time while Holloway finished third in team scoring with 63 points in 77 outings.

More from the Central:

  • While the wrist surgery that Caleb Desnoyers underwent earlier this week ends any chance of him making the Mammoth’s roster out of training camp, there is still the matter of determining where he’ll play when he’s cleared to return. Belle Fraser of The Salt Lake Tribune notes that while there was speculation earlier that linked the center to Boston College, the expectation is now that he’ll return to QMJHL Moncton if he’s unable to secure a spot with Utah when he’s cleared to return.  While he isn’t eligible to play regularly in the minors, he could actually get a few games there on a conditioning stint first before a decision is made on where to have Desnoyers suit up after that.
  • Still with the Mammoth, Brogan Houston of the Deseret News examines their defensive situation. Notably, after a season that saw Utah deal with multiple injuries on the back end, GM Bill Armstrong has shored things up with the additions of Nate Schmidt and Scott Perunovich and the re-signing of Nick DeSimone.  In doing so, they now have a bit more NHL-experienced depth at their disposal, assuming they’re able to get some of those players through waivers in training camp.

Flames Have Started Extension Talks With Dustin Wolf

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Dustin Wolf’s first full NHL season was quite an impactful one.  He became the full-fledged starter in the second half of the year and played an instrumental role in Calgary’s last-season playoff push, one that ultimately came up just short.  He’s entering the final season of his bridge contract but the Flames have clearly seen enough to want to lock him up long term.  Wolf told Postmedia’s Wes Gilbertson that talks on that front are underway:

They’re working, that’s about all I can really tell you. There’s talks, but nothing really confirmed yet. I’d love to stay here and I think they want me to stay here, as well. So as soon as something comes to fruition where both of us like where we’re at, I’m sure it won’t be long after that point where pen will be to paper.

Wolf played in 53 games for Calgary last season, posting a 2.64 GAA and a .910 SV%.  His performance was strong enough to earn him the runner-up position in Calder Trophy voting for Rookie of the Year while he also received a third-place vote in Vezina Trophy voting for the league’s top netminder.  That’s quite the solid performance for a player making $850K, making him one of the top bargains in the league.

While undersized for the modern-day goaltender, Wolf has been a top performer coming up.  In the WHL, he put up a .935 SV% over four seasons, winning Goalie of the Year twice and taking home the CHL Goalie of the Year title once.  Then, with AHL Calgary, he had a .926 SV% in parts of four seasons with them, again twice winning the award for being the top goaltender along with being league MVP in 2022-23.  Accordingly, while there’s not an overly long NHL track record to work with, Wolf’s overall track record shows that he’s someone who can be relied on to be a key goalie for the long run.

Finding the right price point on a new deal could be tricky, however, given that he has fewer than 100 career NHL appearances.  Wolf still has two RFA-eligible years left after this one so a second bridge agreement probably isn’t on the table unless it was a one-year pact in the arbitration window which is a long way away.  Assuming their mutual preference is a long-term contract, AFP Analytics suggests that a six-year deal worth a little over $8MM per season could make sense.  While several starting netminders have landed in that range in recent years, most have had much longer track records of NHL success than Wolf currently has.

On the other hand, with at least two more big jumps in the salary cap coming over the next two years, the potential price tag could go even higher if Wolf builds on his performance in 2025-26.  On the other hand, if he struggles a bit, the asking price would probably come in below that projected number.  With negotiations like this with relatively untested players, it’s about finding a spot where both sides are comfortable with the risk of a possible overpayment or underpayment.  We’ll see if they can find that point over the coming weeks.

Pacific Notes: Gudas, Sharks, Montour

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While it looked as if Ducks defenseman Radko Gudas would need surgery to address a lingering knee issue, he noted to NHL.com’s Michael Langr that he ultimately didn’t need it and that he was able to recover simply through rehab.  The 35-year-old still managed to play in 81 games last season despite the injury, recording a dozen points, 178 blocked shots, and 261 hits in just under 20 minutes a night of playing time.  Now entering the final season of his three-year, $12MM contract signed two years ago, Gudas added that there have yet to be any extension talks but that he understands there are other priorities for GM Pat Verbeek to be dealing with at this time.

Elsewhere in the Pacific:

  • The City of San Jose and the Sharks have released a Memorandum of Understanding that could keep the Sharks in town for many more years. Pending ratification from City Council later this month, the deal would see the arena undergo a $425MM renovation over a seven-year span with the city funding $325MM of that and the team $100MM.  In return, the Sharks would agree to extend their stay in San Jose through at least the 2050-51 season.  Their current arena is now more than 30 years old and has yet to undergo a significant renovation.  Notably, it’s mentioned in the document that it is not feasible for the Sharks to stay at the renovated facility for the entire term of that agreement and that both sides will work to find a prospective location for a new arena district.
  • After not making Canada’s 4 Nations Face-Off roster, Kraken blueliner Brandon Montour opted to accept an invitation to the Worlds back in May in the hopes of improving his chances of being selected to play in the Olympics. He fared quite well in the tournament, tying for the lead in points by a defenseman with nine.  Accordingly, NHL.com’s Mike Zeisberger suggests that the 31-year-old may now have a viable shot at making the roster, especially with GM Doug Armstrong suggesting that in-season performance and not just their track record will go a long way toward determining the final roster.  Montour had a career-best 18 goals in his first season with Seattle in 2024-25 and will look to build off that this season.

Jani Hakanpaa Fully Cleared From Knee Injury, Has Had NHL Interest This Summer

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Despite seeing very little game action, last season was an eventful one for free agent defenseman Jani Hakanpaa.  He agreed to terms with Toronto on the opening day of free agency on a multi-year deal before his physical revealed concerns over his recovery from knee surgery.  Eventually, a revised one-year pact was agreed upon with the hope that he’d be able to return at some point in the season.

However, that return only lasted two games in November before he was sidelined once again, landing right back on LTIR.  But there was a chance he could have suited up in the playoffs as the 33-year-old told Ilta-Sanomat’s Ville Touru earlier this month that he had been cleared by team doctors to suit up if he was needed.  Now, he says he has been fully cleared and is looking to sign with an NHL team for the upcoming season.

When healthy, Hakanpaa has been an effective third-pairing blueliner while bringing plenty of physicality to the table.  Over his 290 career NHL appearances, he has 899 hits along with 45 points in 18 minutes a night of playing time.  As a big right-shot player, there would be a decent market for his services if teams feel he can legitimately step up and contribute.

Hakanpaa noted that he has had some calls this summer from NHL teams but that he wanted to wait a little to see how the market shook out first.  Whether that’s a sign that the offers weren’t to his liking or that he wanted to get a sense of where he might best fit remains to be seen.

Speculatively, given the injury trouble, he’s someone who stands out as a viable PTO candidate.  He isn’t eligible for a one-year deal with performance incentives as while he meets the requirement of being on IR for 100 days last season, he doesn’t meet the games played criterion of 400 NHL appearances.  But with Hakanpaa being healthy (or as healthy as he’s going to be following the surgery), he could be an intriguing pickup over the coming weeks.

Players Who Could Start The Season On LTIR

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While only a handful of teams project to need cap relief via long-term injured reserve to open the season, multiple candidates across the league might technically qualify for a placement. Doing so would bar the player from returning until Oct. 31 at the earliest – 24 days from the season start date of Oct. 7.

Avalanche: Logan O’Connor

O’Connor underwent hip surgery in early June. Given the five-to-six-month projected recovery window, he won’t be available until early November at best, putting him past the 10-game/24-day threshold required for LTIR. Colorado, which has $2.10MM in current cap space, will likely place O’Connor on standard IR if they don’t make any other cap-affecting moves between now and October. If they need the relief, though, they could create up to O’Connor’s $2.5MM cap hit in cushion for the first few weeks of the season if they need it.

Blues: Torey Krug

St. Louis general manager Doug Armstrong announced in May that Krug’s career is done because of pre-arthritic conditions in his left ankle that surgical intervention only slowly corrected. Since the Blues only have around $625K in cap space, Krug and his $6.5MM cap hit will be going on LTIR as soon as they need the flexibility for a call-up.

Canadiens: Carey Price

What’s certain is that Price won’t play this season or ever again. He’s entering the final season of his contract at a $10.5MM cap hit after confirming nearly two years ago that his knee injury would prohibit him from suiting up again. What’s uncertain is whether or not he’ll begin the season on LTIR. Montreal isn’t in a great position to optimize its LTIR relief, either by matching his cap hit in excess or getting down to $0 in space before placing him on the list. That’s made his contract a trade chip for teams who might need the relief more.

Devils: Johnathan Kovacevic

Kovacevic underwent knee surgery in early May and won’t be ready for training camp and likely opening night as well. Whether that stretches past Oct. 31 and makes him eligible for an LTIR placement if New Jersey needs cap relief early on remains to be seen.

Flyers: Ryan Ellis, Rasmus Ristolainen

Ellis’ career is over after sustaining a wide-ranging muscular injury in his pelvis just four games into his Flyers tenure in 2021. Ristolainen underwent a procedure on his right triceps tendon on March 26 with a six-month recovery time, putting him right on the edge of potential LTIR eligibility. Philly will have a better idea of the latter’s LTIR deployment potential after he undergoes his training camp physical. With $370K in cap space, they’re in a good position for near-max LTIR capture and will almost certainly at least place Ellis there to begin the year to give them call-up flexibility.

Golden Knights: Alex Pietrangelo

Pietrangelo is already on offseason LTIR, meaning the Knights actually still have to add an additional $1.2MM to their roster before opening night to optimize his capture and unlock his full $8.8MM cap hit’s worth of relief for this season. The team confirmed he requires multiple undisclosed but significant surgeries that will likely mark the end of his playing career, but it’s unclear if he’s actually had them done yet.

Jets: Adam Lowry

Lowry underwent hip surgery in late May and won’t be available until after Thanksgiving at the earliest. Winnipeg likely won’t be formalizing an LTIR placement with nearly $4MM in cap space, though.

Mammoth: Juuso Välimäki

Välimäki underwent ACL surgery in early March. He likely won’t end up on LTIR given Utah’s current cap flexibility ($6.68MM), but he’ll be out until at least early November so he’ll be there as an early-season option in case they need relief for whatever reason.

Oilers: Zach Hyman

Hyman’s inclusion here is on the speculative side. The winger could very well be ready for the start of the season. However, there hasn’t been much clarity on how much recovery he still needs after undergoing surgery to repair a severe wrist injury that kept him out of the Stanley Cup Final. A report in early June indicated there was uncertainty about his status for training camp, with no meaningful updates since then.

Panthers: Matthew Tkachuk

Tkachuk told ESPN’s Greg Wyshynski earlier this month that he’s still deciding whether he wants to undergo surgery to address the adductor issue that hampered him down the stretch and in the playoffs after sustaining it at the 4 Nations Face-Off. All signs point to him opting for it and spending the next two to three months on the shelf as a result, though. Placing him on LTIR is the only way the Panthers, who currently have a cap exceedance of $3.725MM, can be compliant to start the season without shedding a significant contract, something they aren’t keen to do.

Wild: Jonas Brodin

Minnesota has $9.41MM in cap space, but that number will shrink once they re-sign restricted free agent Marco Rossi (or add salary while trading his signing rights). Neither scenario will likely push them into a situation where they need to use LTIR relief, but they might have Brodin and his $6MM cap hit as an option for some short-term flexibility if required. He underwent an upper-body procedure in early June and is questionable for the beginning of the season, so it’s not yet clear if he’ll miss enough time to qualify.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Pittsburgh Penguins

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the most important tasks for a front office.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those who don’t often see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation for the 2025-26 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of PuckPedia.  We’re currently covering the Metropolitan Division, next up are the Penguins.

Pittsburgh Penguins

Current Cap Hit: $82,466,429 (below the $95.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Rutger McGroarty (two years, $950K)
D Owen Pickering (two years, $886.7K)

Potential Bonuses
McGroarty: $500K
Pickering: $250K
Total: $750K

The hope was that McGroarty would lock down a full-time spot last season but it didn’t happen.  Instead, he spent most of the season with Wilkes-Barre/Scranton but showed well down the stretch which could give him a chance amidst a fairly deep group of depth forwards.  Even if he does play regularly, he’s unlikely to hit his two ‘A’ bonuses.

Pickering might be in the mix on the back end but their offseason defensive depth additions make it likely as things stand that he starts in the minors.  With 25 NHL games last season, he’s tracking towards a bridge deal, especially if he spends a good chunk of the year in the AHL.

Signed Through 2025-26, Non-Entry-Level

F Noel Acciari ($2MM, UFA)
D Alexander Alexeyev ($775K, RFA)
D Connor Clifton ($3.333MM, UFA)
F Connor Dewar ($1.1MM, UFA)
D Mathew Dumba ($3.75MM, UFA)
F Kevin Hayes ($3.571MM, UFA)*
F Danton Heinen ($2.25MM, UFA)
F Blake Lizotte ($1.85MM, UFA)
F Evgeni Malkin ($6.1MM, UFA)
F Anthony Mantha ($2.5MM, UFA)
D Ryan Shea ($900K, UFA)
G Arturs Silovs ($850K, RFA)
F Philip Tomasino ($1.75MM, RFA)

*Philadelphia is retaining an additional $3.571MM on Hayes’ deal.

Potential Bonuses
Mantha: $2MM

Let’s face it, this is quite the long list and that’s by design for GM Kyle Dubas who is setting up for maximum flexibility over the next couple of summers.

One part of that flexibility will be the end of Malkin’s contract.  A deal that took way longer than expected to hammer out, giving him four years at the age of 35 seemed to carry some risk but it has held up alright as he has notched 200 points in 232 games over that stretch although he is slowing down now.  With that in mind, he might not provide a particularly strong return on this final season but overall, they did reasonably well on this contract.  Malkin’s future with Pittsburgh and the NHL in general will be in question after this as the Penguins might not want to keep a player who would be 40 on a team that’s trying to rebuild while Malkin may not want to go elsewhere after spending what will be 20 years with the Penguins.  If he does, a one-year pact with lots of performance bonuses will be the deal other teams will offer.

The hope was that a change of scenery for Hayes might get him going after a tough year in St. Louis but instead, his role was reduced further and his performance dipped more.  It’s hard to see that changing but his track record is still good enough that he could land around $3MM or so on another short-term deal as long as this season is around how he did last year.  Mantha comes over from Calgary following an injury-riddled year that caused him to miss the final 69 games due to ACL surgery.  When he’s on, he can be an effective top-six piece but has done so sporadically to the point where he needed a one-year deal last summer coming off an inconsistent season.  If he rebounds, he could get back to the $4MM range but that’s far from a given.  His bonuses are fairly simple; he’ll receive $250K at every ten-game increment he plays from 10 to 80.

Heinen was acquired from Vancouver as part of the Marcus Pettersson trade last season and did okay with his new team.  He’s capable of putting up decent production from a bottom-six role which earned him this contract last summer but he’s not far removed from having to take a PTO either.  If he hovers around the 30-point mark again, he could command a similar price tag to this on the open market next summer.  Acciari’s first two seasons in Pittsburgh haven’t lived up to expectations.  More of an impactful player offensively in 2022-23, his production the last two years hasn’t added up to that mark.  He’s still a physical fourth liner who can kill penalties and win faceoffs but barring an uptick in output this season, Acciari is likely heading for a small dip in pay.

From a point-per-game perspective, last season wasn’t bad for Lizotte but the injury bug got him again for the second straight year.  While he can be a 30-point player when healthy, he needs to show he can stay in the lineup for closer to a full 82 games to have a shot at besting this deal next summer.  Tomasino had some decent moments after being picked up from Nashville.  It’s too early to say that he could be part of their longer-term plans which is why the one-year pact made sense for both sides.  He was non-tendered to avoid arbitration rights in June before re-signing and that could be his fate again unless there’s an uptick in his production.  Dewar also went through the non-tender process six weeks ago but, like Tomasino, quickly re-signed.  After seeing low minutes in Toronto, he fared better down the stretch but will need to be more of a third liner than a fourth if he wants to get to another level in terms of his contract instead of going year-to-year at only a bit above the league minimum.

Dallas signed Dumba last summer, feeling that he could still be a serviceable second-pairing player.  That didn’t happen.  Instead, he struggled in a very limited role before being scratched entirely in the playoffs and traded away with draft compensation for taking on the final year of his deal.  It’s possible that he rebounds but it’s also possible that he has a very limited role again.  At this point, he’d be hard-pressed to reach half of what he’s making now.  Clifton wasn’t able to establish himself as more of a third-pairing option with Buffalo in his two seasons with them before being moved in an offseason swap as well.  He’s a more reliable option than Dumba at this point and his market should be okay next summer, just with a price tag closer to the $2MM mark instead of more than $3MM once again.

Shea is a success story from Group Six free agency.  While not many of those players find better opportunities elsewhere, he did just that, going from never seeing NHL action in Dallas to playing in 70 games with Pittsburgh over the last two seasons, landing him two straight one-way deals.  With still a limited role, it’s hard to see him going much higher than this but it’s still a nice turnaround for someone earmarked as a full-time AHLer just a couple of years ago.  Alexeyev hardly played at all last season, leading to a non-tender from Washington.  He’ll need to at least establish himself as more of a viable sixth option or he could be heading toward two-way offers moving forward.  He’s still arbitration-eligible but unless he breaks out and has a big year, he’s a safe bet to be non-tendered again next offseason.

Silovs was brought in via a recent trade with Vancouver to take a run at a full-time NHL backup spot.  He had that going into last season with the Canucks but struggled mightily.  However, he had a solid year with AHL Abbotsford before playing a key role in their Calder Cup victory, making it unlikely he’d slip through waivers.  If he can establish himself as being at least a suitable full-season backup, doubling this price tag with arbitration rights is doable.

Signed Through 2026-27

F Justin Brazeau ($1.5MM, UFA)
F Sidney Crosby ($8.7MM, UFA)
D Erik Karlsson ($10MM, UFA)*
F Thomas Novak ($3.5MM, UFA)
D Parker Wotherspoon ($1MM, UFA)

*-San Jose is retaining an additional $1.5MM on Karlsson’s contract.

Crosby is quietly beginning a new contract with the Penguins this season although it’d be easy to miss that considering he has had the same cap hit since 2008, a price tag he has provided significant surplus value on.  At 38, he might still provide plenty of value on this contract coming off a 91-point season which shows he still has plenty left in the tank.  He’s been featured in plenty of trade speculation given that he’s nearing the end of his career and the Penguins aren’t close to contention but with full trade protection, Crosby will get to decide his fate.  But no matter where he winds up (and staying in Pittsburgh remains the overwhelmingly likely outcome), he’s a safe bet to continue to provide positive value money-wise.

Novak was brought over near the trade deadline in a trade with Nashville.  He didn’t come close to reaching the 40-point mark for the third straight year, instead barely amassing half of that despite some solid underlying numbers.  If he can even get into the mid-30s offensively, this deal should hold up well given the high demand for centers.  Brazeau was a full-time minor leaguer just a couple of years ago and only has one full NHL season under his belt.  However, he did well enough to land this deal in free agency.  If he puts up another couple of double-digit goal campaigns, he should be able to push past $2MM in 2027.

Karlsson hasn’t been able to come close to reaching 100 points again as he did in his final season in San Jose but he has remained one of the better offensive blueliners in the NHL.  His defensive warts notwithstanding, he’s someone who can still handle big minutes and while his price tag is an overpayment for his current performance, it’s probably only a few million above market value at most.  If he’s still an above-average offensive threat two years from now, a two-year deal even at 37 could be doable, albeit at a significantly lower price tag.  Wotherspoon had his best showing last season with Boston, holding his own in 55 games with the Bruins to earn the first seven-figure deal of his career.  If he can remain a capable third-pairing player over his time on this contract, doubling this price tag could be doable.

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Marc-Edouard Vlasic Intends To Play This Season, Comments On San Jose Buyout

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With training camps now around a month away, there should start to be an uptick in signings relatively soon as veterans look to find places to play for the upcoming season.  Veteran blueliner Marc-Edouard Vlasic was a late entrant to the free agent market and indicated to Stephane Cadorette of Le Journal de Quebec that he fully intends to play in the NHL in 2025-26.

The 38-year-old was a core piece on San Jose’s back end for the better part of a decade and a half before his role started to diminish significantly in recent years.  Last season, he spent time both on injured reserve and as a healthy scratch, limiting him to just a goal and two assists in 27 games with his average ice time dropping to 14:38, the lowest of his career.

In his prime, Vlasic was one of the top defensive blueliners in the NHL.  In particular, he has been quite adept at blocking shots as he’s the all-time league leader in that regard, per QuantHockey although it should be noted that the statistic has only been tracked for around the last two decades.

Vlasic had one year left on his deal before free agency opened up with the Sharks apparently deciding very last minute to execute the buyout.  The veteran voiced some frustration about how that came about, noting that in the exit interview back in April that they wanted him to continue to provide the veteran leadership they were seeking.  Then, a few days before the end of June, they informed him that they’d be buying out the final year of his deal after 19 seasons.

From the outside, the move could have been reasonably foreseeable given his $7MM AAV and the very limited role he had been filling.  Rather than string along a player who was once a franchise pillar with minimal ice time for yet another year, they opted to pay his $2MM signing bonus plus two-thirds of his $3.5MM salary over the next two seasons to move on.

GM Mike Grier wasted little time filling Vlasic’s spot on the roster.  He brought in Dmitry Orlov in free agency while claiming fellow lefty Nick Leddy off waivers while John Klingberg adds some depth to their group of right-shot options as well.  With what they had planned, there was clearly no room to keep Vlasic around.

As for Vlasic, given how limited his role was last season, it would be surprising to see him land a contract of any significance on the open market as it’s likely teams will envision him as a depth option similar to how he was deployed in San Jose rather than a full-time player.  Several of those players will be signing tryout agreement in the weeks to come and it wouldn’t be shocking to see Vlasic need to go that route as well as he looks to extend his NHL career to a 20th season.

Adam Ruzicka Re-Signs In KHL

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August 15: While Ruzicka was hoping to return to the NHL, it won’t be happening.  His agent told RIA Novosti’s Andrey Senchenko that Ruzicka has signed a new two-year deal with Spartak.

August 5: Free agent forward Adam Ruzicka turned to the KHL last season and had a solid showing in Russia with Spartak but notably hasn’t signed a new deal there yet.  Spartak advisor Valeri Kamensky told Alexander Abustin of Sport-Express that the reason Ruzicka hasn’t re-signed yet is because he’s holding out hope to get another NHL opportunity.

The 26-year-old was a fourth-round pick by Calgary back in 2017, going 109th overall.  He spent parts of four seasons with the Flames before being claimed off waivers by Arizona in early 2024.  However, a month later, Ruzicka and the Coyotes agreed on a mutual contract termination a month later, making him an unrestricted free agent.  After another NHL chance didn’t materialize in short order, he ultimately signed with Spartak in late May 2024.

Ruzicka was certainly productive in Russia, notching 26 goals and 19 assists in 65 regular season games, good for fifth in team scoring.  He was even better in the playoffs, picking up seven goals and five helpers in 12 postseason contests, making the most of his opportunity to play a more offensive role after being more of a depth player in the NHL.

Over his four NHL seasons, Ruzicka has played in 117 games, picking up 14 goals and 26 assists.  However, a good chunk of that production came in 2022-23 when he recorded 20 points in just 44 games with Calgary before his output tailed off the following year.  Basically, he’s not too far removed from being a legitimate depth contributor at the top level.

Kamensky acknowledged that discussions are underway with Ruzicka so if he doesn’t get another NHL look, he’ll simply re-sign.  But, for now at least, it appears he’s hoping to get another chance at the top level first.

Evan Cormier Remaining In Panthers Organization On AHL Deal

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The Panthers organization is retaining goaltender Evan Cormier on an AHL contract with the Charlotte Checkers, per a team release. Cormier has spent the last two seasons on AHL deals with the Checkers, signing NHL contracts with Florida at each trade deadline to give them an emergency backup option down the stretch and in the postseason. He cleared waivers each time to play out the regular season in the minors.

Cormier, 27, was a fourth-round pick by the Devils in 2016 but saw his signing rights expire following the 2017-18 season. The team nonetheless signed him to his entry-level contract midway through the following year, bringing him out of the University of Guelph to make the jump to the pros. He spent the next three years in the organization with AHL Binghamton and ECHL Adirondack before being non-tendered following the 2021-22 season.

From 2021 to 23, Cormier primarily played in the Jets organization under contract with AHL Manitoba. Like he has the past two years with Florida, he inked a two-way NHL deal with Winnipeg at the 2023 trade deadline to give them a playoff EBUG option.

Cormier has still never played an NHL game, though, and last season was his first without AHL time since he turned pro. The 6’3″ Ontario native instead spent the year with Florida’s second-tier affiliate, ECHL Savannah, where he struggled with a 3.38 GAA, .887 SV%, one shutout, and a 17-13-4 record in 36 appearances.

With the Cats having Cooper Black, Brandon Bussi, and Kirill Gerasimyuk all signed to two-way deals for the upcoming campaign, their AHL goaltending situation is set. Cormier will likely reprise the same ECHL role for them next season, and the likelihood of him getting another late-year NHL deal is slim with Florida entering the season with five contracted options between the pipes.

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