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Offseason Keys: Ottawa Senators

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While the playoffs are ongoing, many teams have already started their offseason planning.  What storylines lie ahead around the league?  Our Offseason Keys series continues with a look at the Ottawa Senators.

Fresh off an appearance in the Eastern Conference Final, expectations were high in Ottawa heading into the season.  However, a slow start led to a blockbuster trade with the acquisition of Matt Duchene but that didn’t change their fortunes.  Their struggles continued throughout the year and after narrowing missing the Stanley Cup Final, they found themselves finishing 30th overall.  Here are the keys to their offseason.

Karlsson’s Future

As the trade deadline got closer and closer, speculation increased regarding the future of defenseman Erik Karlsson.  It got to the point where it was looking more and more like he would be dealt with Vegas emerging as a potential landing spot.  The deal wound up being scuttled but as the draft gets closer, the discussions will only intensify.

Adding to the intrigue here is Karlsson’s contract status as he is set to become an unrestricted free agent in 2018-19.  GM Pierre Dorion confirmed last month that he will make an offer to Karlsson’s camp on July 1st but for a team that isn’t typically among the top spenders in the NHL, can they afford to give him the contract he’s expected to command?

Whether it’s a trade or a contract extension, Dorion has a big decision to make.  This is something that conceivably can’t drag out into next season; this is one of those situations that won’t be helped by the media attention it would be bound to get if there wasn’t a resolution by October.

Decide On Buyouts

In his end-of-season press conference, Dorion suggested that the Sens may be willing to buy out players this summer and even acknowledged that he had discussed the possibility with some players during their exit interviews.  Doing so would free up some cap space to work with but as they’re not a team that typically spends to the Upper Limit, paying more players not to play for them (they’re already retaining on Dion Phaneuf) may not be the greatest move either.

In terms of who they could be looking at, winger Marian Gaborik comes to mind.  He was acquired in the Phaneuf trade but his presence was more about of balancing salary than filling a need.  While he played better in Ottawa, he still has three years left (with nearly $11MM in total salary) on his contract and is injury-prone.  Alexandre Burrows, another winger, cleared waivers at the trade deadline and with one year and $2.5MM left on his deal, he would be a more affordable buyout.  Winger Bobby Ryan has been tied to the Karlsson trade speculation but if they can’t unload his contract in a trade, it’s hard to imagine they would buy him out with four years and $30MM remaining on it; that’s just too rich for a smaller-market team.

Contract For Stone

All the discussion surrounding Karlsson has drawn most of the headlines which has allowed Mark Stone’s contract situation to go under the radar somewhat.  He’s set to become a restricted free agent in July (with a qualifying offer of $4.5MM which he’ll undoubtedly receive).  He’s also arbitration-eligible and most importantly, is only a year away from UFA eligibility.

His performance in 2017-18 gives him a lot of leverage to work with.  Despite missing 24 games, he still posted 62 points, surpassing the point-per-game mark for the first time in his career.  That stat is going to look awfully good in an arbitration filing if it gets that far.

Ryan’s contract carries a $7.5MM cap hit and there’s a strong case to be made that Stone’s next deal should surpass his as the 25-year-old has out-produced Ryan in each of the last four years while emerging as a legitimate top-line player.  If Ottawa deems that too rich of an ask, then all of a sudden he becomes a prime trade candidate at some point throughout the year.  If they do reach an agreement, will that have an impact on Karlsson; can they afford to keep both long-term?  The safe bet here is that Stone and the Senators come to terms on a long-term deal but it’s going to be a very big one when they do put pen to paper.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Western Notes: Peters, MacLean, Duclair, Niku, Suzuki

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While the rumor that former Carolina Hurricanes head coach Bill Peters is likely headed to Calgary, TSN’s Pierre LeBrun reports that the Dallas Stars had requested permission from Carolina to speak to Peters and did, but has decided that he isn’t a good fit for their coaching vacancy and is the front-runner for the Flames head coaching job. Postmedia’s Wes Gilbertson adds that the Flames were concerned about a better offer from Dallas, but the scribe writes that it is more and more certain the team will hire Peters.

“I’d like to work, I’d like to coach. I hope something is in place soon,” Peters said via Gilbertson.

While Peters was considered to be one of the top coaching prospects when he was hired by Carolina four years ago, he was never able to get them to the playoffs. The hope is that with four years of experience, the coach can take that next step with Calgary, who has a lot of talent and could be ready to make an impact next year.

  • LeBrun also said the Dallas Stars will be patient in their coaching search, but believes that the team will consider former Ottawa Senators head coach Paul MacLean as a candidate. The coach was 114-90-35 in three and a half seasons for Ottawa from 2011-2014. However, LeBrun admits there are many candidates on their coaching list.
  • Corey Snzjdjer of The Athletic (subscription required) writes the Chicago Blackhawks might not be able to retain restricted free agent Anthony Duclair. The 22-year-old acquired in January has a ton of potential, but can’t seem to put up much, in terms of points. He had two goals and six assists in 23 games until he suffered a knee injury that knocked him out for the last 13 games of the year. The scribe writes that because Duclair is on a one-year bridge deal, Chicago would have to match his $1.2MM salary, which might be too high of a price with all the young talent who could be brought in at cheaper salaries, including Vinnie Hinostroza, Victor Ejdsell and Dylan Sikura.
  • The Winnipeg Jets announced they have assigned defenseman Sami Niku to the AHL’s Manitoba Moose. Niku was recalled Thursday as the team was dealing with injuries to defenseman Tyler Myers and then losing defenseman Josh Morrissey to a one-game suspension. Niku, the AHL’s defenseman of the year, would have gone in had Myers been unable to go Friday. Instead, he returns to Manitoba as they begin their playoff series today against the Grand Rapids Griffins.
  • The Vegas Golden Knights have promoted prospect Nick Suzuki from the OHL’s Owen Sound Attack to the Chicago Wolves of the AHL. The 18-year-old prospect was the 13th overall pick in the 2017 draft and put up a 100-point season this year in 64 games for the Attack. He will join another first-rounder in Cody Glass, who was promoted earlier this week and 2017 second-round pick Nicolas Hague, who has been with the team for a couple of weeks. The prospects are just another future line of depth that could conceivably join Vegas next year, assuming they can win spots on the team during training camp.

Atlantic Notes: Bergevin & Canadiens, Boucher, Okposo

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While the Montreal Canadiens season didn’t go as planned, the team must now figure out what went wrong as general manager Marc Bergevin attempts to right the ship after a disappointing season. To that point, Stu Cowan of the Montreal Gazette hands out grades for the Montreal Canadiens disappointing season. As can be expected there were more D’s and F’s than top marks, starting with the performance of Bergevin, who received an F for multiple questionable moves, including his “first come, first served” contract offers to winger Alexander Radulov and long-time Canadien Andrei Markov, in which both opted to leave and the team failed to find replacements for either.

The scribe was quick to throw a D towards most of the team’s star players, including goaltender Carey Price, whose eight-year, $84MM extension begins next season. While the team’s defense wasn’t there to support him, he’s supposed to be the team’s best player and he wasn’t even close after putting up a 3.11 GAA and a .900 save percentage in 49 games. Bad grades followed to Alex Galchenyuk, Jonathan Drouin, Jordie Benn, Max Pacioretty and the scouting department for thinking that Karl Alzner was worth a five year, 23MM contract in the offseason.

  • Ottawa Senators’ Guy Boucher’s status as coach has not been decided yet as general manager Pierre Dorion is focused on scouting before evaluating the coaching staff. However, if the head coach loses his job, much of that might have to do with the team’s practice schedule or lack thereof, according to Chris Stevenson of The Athletic (subscription required). After Dorion was critical of Boucher’s option to often rest his players, rather than practice, the scribe looked into some of the reasons why the coach opted to rest his players, pointing to special events like the trip to Sweden, the outdoor game and multiple team functions as well as the Senators were tied for the most back-to-back games this year with 19. Add in a 17-day span in which they did not play at home in December and the team had a exhausting schedule. However, the lack of practices didn’t help a squad who truly struggled this year under the head coach.
  • Jon Vogl of the Buffalo News writes that despite Buffalo Sabres’ Kyle Okposo’s poor season, the one positive is that a year ago, he had just been released from the neuro-intensive care unit and wasn’t even sure if he would play hockey again. With little time to train last summer, Okposo put up just 15 goals this season, his lowest since the strike shortened 2012-13 season. With five years remaining on his seven-year, $42MM deal he signed two years ago, the 29-year-0ld believes that he will get himself into elite shape this summer as he is finally healthy and ready to show the Sabres that the deal wasn’t a mistake.

Senators To Keep 2018 First-Rounder, Send Unprotected First To Colorado Next Year

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  • Among the many topics discussed at the Senators’ end-of-season press conference was the upcoming draft. GM Pierre Dorion told reporters, including Postmedia’s Bruce Garrioch, that the team intends to keep their first-round pick this year and not transfer it to Colorado.  As a result, the Avalanche will acquire Ottawa’s unprotected first-round selection for 2019.  Because they finished 30th overall in the standings, the Senators can pick no worse than fifth overall in June; the draft lottery is set to be held on Saturday, April 28th.

Ottawa Senators Could Use Buyouts This Summer

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In his season-ending press conference, Ottawa Senators GM Pierre Dorion discussed several topics including the future of head coach Guy Boucher—which will be determined after the draft lottery—the decision to keep their 2018 draft pick, and the option of buyouts to help their cap situation this summer.

On buyouts, Dorion admitted that they had discussed the possibility with several players during their exit interviews. While he wouldn’t reveal exactly who those players were, one has to assume that Bobby Ryan and Marian Gaborik were among them. The pair are under contract for more than $12MM combined for the next three seasons (with Ryan extended even a year past that) but haven’t been able to live up to their previous career success.

With the team needing salary and cap space for not only Erik Karlsson’s potential mega-deal, but extensions for Matt Duchene and Mark Stone, buyouts could be an attractive option.

Ryan, 31, scored just 33 points this season and played just 62 games while dealing with several injuries. His 11 goals was the lowest of his career in a full-length season, and his play doesn’t seem like it will ever return to the 30-goal man of his youth. If a buyout were used however, it would be quite a financial commitment by the Senators.

Since signing bonuses are paid out regardless of a buyout, Ryan would be in line to collect more than $22.6MM of the remaining $30MM on his contract. Paying out that much for someone to not play for your team is something that the richer teams in the league can do, but Ottawa has never been one to hand out money.

Ottawa Senators Re-Assign Filip Chlapik, Colin White

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The Ottawa Senators have decided the season isn’t over for Filip Chlapik or Colin White, and have re-assigned both forwards to the AHL. The Belleville Senators aren’t headed to the playoffs this year, but do have three games remaining in the regular season. While Ottawa rests and prepares for the 2018-19 season, Chlapik and White will continue their development with a few more games.

It was a somewhat disappointing season for first-round pick White, who after a pair of outstanding seasons at Boston College was expected to make an impact right away. He failed to do so, recording just six points in 21 games and spending the rest of the year in the minor leagues. Though there is no reason to believe that he can’t be a contributor as soon as next season, he hasn’t progressed as quickly as some had hoped. If Ottawa is going to bounce back from this season, he’ll be a key part of the success.

Chlapik on the other hand came in with lower expectations, a second-round pick coming off a great junior season that likely needed some seasoning in the minor leagues. The fact that he immediately seemed acclimated to the AHL pace earned him a call-up in late October, where he registered his first NHL point in his first game. Though he would go on to record just three more points in his next 19 NHL games, he has proved he can handle play at the highest level. Like White, Chlapik could see more time in the minor leagues to start 2018-19, but is a big part of any future they’re trying to build.

2018 NHL Draft Lottery Odds

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The regular season is over and for the first time in NHL history there are 15 teams on the outside of the playoff picture. For those squads and their fans, it’s a long wait for anything positive to come, with the 2018 NHL Entry Draft more than ten weeks away, scheduled for June 18th, and the start of free agency another two weeks after that. However, the odds for this year’s NHL Draft Lottery are now set and teams can at least look forward to the ping pong balls being drawn at the end of the month, on Saturday, April 28th. With the teams in the running now set, here are the odds for the #1 overall pick in this years draft:

31st – Buffalo Sabres: 18.5%

30th – Ottawa Senators: 13.5%

29th – Arizona Coyotes: 11.5%

28th – Montreal Canadiens: 9.5%

27th – Detroit Red Wings: 8.5%

26th – Vancouver Canucks: 7.5%

25th – Chicago Blackhawks: 6.5%

24th – New York Rangers: 6.0%

23rd – Edmonton Oilers: 5.0%

22nd – New York Islanders: 3.5%

21st – Carolina Hurricanes: 3.0%

20th – New York Islanders (from Calgary Flames): 2.5%

19th – Dallas Stars: 2.0%

18th – Philadelphia Flyers (from St. Louis Blues (top-ten option)): 1.5%

17th – Florida Panthers: 1.0%

If you are a fan of one of these teams, you can entertain yourself for the next few weeks with this Lottery Simulator from Tankathon.com.

Could Mark Stone's Next Deal Reach $8MM Per Season?

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  • While many are wondering if the Senators will be spending big on a possible contract extension for defenseman Erik Karlsson, that’s not the only big-money decision they’ll have to make. Winger Mark Stone is heading for restricted free agency this summer and is coming off his third 60-plus point season in the past four years.  What’s particularly noteworthy about that mark this year is that he recorded 62 points (20-42-62) in just 58 games.  Accordingly, Postmedia’s Ken Warren speculates that a new deal for Stone could approach $8MM per year which would represent a significant jump on the $4.5MM salary he earned this season (with a cap hit of $3.5MM).  He is one year away from unrestricted free agency eligibility so the team won’t be able to use multiple RFA years to lower the cap hit a little bit.

Atlantic Notes: Bruins, Boucher, Ristolainen, Zetterberg, Bertuzzi

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There is just one game remaining on the NHL regular season schedule and the league schedulers picked a good one as the Boston Bruins will host the Florida Panthers today in the lone game. While many people thought the game would have significant meaning for the Panthers (Philadelphia’s victory Saturday officially eliminated Florida from the playoffs), it instead has an effect on Boston.

If the Bruins win, they will jump over the Tampa Bay Lightning as the top seed of the Eastern Conference and get home ice advantage in the first three rounds of the playoffs. A win of any kind would give them a matchup with the New Jersey Devils. A loss will pit the Bruins against the Toronto Maple Leafs, a team they have struggled with this year. The only known matchup in the Eastern Conference are the Pittsburgh Penguins vs. the Philadelphia Flyers and the Washington Capitals vs. the Columbus Blue Jackets.

“Let’s face it, we were trying to find our own game and get to where we thought we were at the start of the year, which was definitely a playoff team,” said head coach Bruce Cassidy via NBC Sports Joe Haggerty. “We just didn’t know where we would fit, and the way Tampa got out of the gate, and Toronto for that matter, it was going to be an uphill battle. But here we are. We’re in a position to take it, and that’s a credit to the guys. We’ve worked hard to get here. This wasn’t by accident. We didn’t back in.”

  • The Ottawa Senators, who ended up finishing in 30th place this season, must make a decision on their coaching situation. Bruce Garrioch of the Ottawa Citizen writes that Guy Boucher is in a strange situation as he did everything right a year ago at this time and has done little right since. The team’s defense and special teams were atrocious this year and need to get fixed. The question is, will it be Boucher or another coach? Garrioch says that even if Boucher survives, expect changes to the staff as last year is considered unacceptable.
  • Jon Vogl of the Buffalo News writes that the Buffalo Sabres need to make sweeping changes to avoid another dismal season next year, but unfortunately, the team has a lot of contracts with term which will be hard to move, so the team will need to be creative in trades. The defense has six players already under contract and few top-four players, citing that Rasmus Ristolainen is considered their No. 1 defenseman and he is no where even close to that. He will have four more years on his contract at $5.4MM AAV and has shown little improvement and isn’t the leader they hoped he would be.
  • Helene St. James of the Detroit Free Press writes that Detroit Red Wings’ Henrik Zetterberg must decide whether he wants to keep playing. The 38-year-old still has three years left of the 12-year contract he signed in 2009 at $6.083MM AAV, but back then it was assumed players wouldn’t play the entire contract out. He’s logged over 1,000 and if he chooses to retire, the Red Wings would save $6MM in cap space if the team is able to place him on long-term injured reserve. St. James adds, however, that the veteran might want to come back for one more year as he is just 42 points away from reaching 1,000 points.
  • St. James also tweets that the Red Wings have decided not to send forward Tyler Bertuzzi to the Grand Rapids Griffins of the AHL for their playoff run. They believe Bertuzzi has done enough at the AHL level and want him to hit the gym and get stronger with a full offseason of workouts.

Minor Transactions: 4/7/2018

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With a full-slate of 15 games today on the final weekend of the regular season, most teams will wrap up their regular season today and the playoff order should be more clarified by the end of the night. Most prominent will be which team clinches the final playoff spots. A Philadelphia point will give them the Eastern Conference’s final spot over the Florida Panthers, while the Colorado Avalanche and the St. Louis Blues will play for the right for the final spot in the West. Colorado needs a regulation victory tonight to vault themselves into the playoffs. In the meantime, several teams are making minor changes for the final weekend of the regular season.

  • The Arizona Coyotes announced they have recalled defenseman Joel Hanley on an emergency basis. The 26-year-old has played four games with the Coyotes this year, having spent most of his season with the Tucson Roadrunners of the AHL, putting up two goals and 17 assists in 50 games. ArizonaSports Craig Morgan adds the move was made as defenseman Kevin Connaugton is a little banged up.
  • The Ottawa Senators announced they have recalled defenseman Andreas Englund from the Belleville Senators of the AHL and is expected to play today as Ben Harpur is injured. Englund was recalled back in December, but didn’t play in a game. The 22-year-old former second-round pick had one goal and nine assists in 66 games for Belleville.
  • The New Jersey Devils announced they have recalled defenseman Steven Santini and goaltender Eddie Lack. Both were recalled as the Devils are expected to rest numerous players today, including Taylor Hall, Kyle Palmieri, Travis Zajac and Sami Vatanen. With Cory Schneider getting the call to start in goal today, it’s likely the team also intends to rest starter Keith Kinkaid. The 23-year-old Santini has played in 36 games for New Jersey and 27 for Binghampton. Lack will likely serve as backup tonight. He has appeared in eight games this year, four with New Jersey.
  • With the New York Rangers’ season over after Saturday’s 5-0 loss to the Philadelphia Flyers, the Rangers announced they have assigned forwards Filip Chytil, Lias Andersson and Steven Fogarty to the Hartford Wolf Pack of the AHL for their upcoming playoff run. Chytil and Andersson were both recalled on Mar. 26 with Chytil picking up a goal and two assists in six games. Andersson had a goal and an assist in those six games. Fogarty was recalled last night and didn’t get into a game.

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