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Offseason Checklist 2022

Offseason Checklist: San Jose Sharks

at CDT | by 4 Comments

The offseason has arrived for half of the league’s teams that weren’t playoff-bound plus those who were eliminated early in the postseason.  It’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at San Jose.

After being a consistent playoff threat including 14 appearances in a 15-year stretch, things haven’t gone as well for the Sharks in recent years as they’ve missed in three straight seasons.  With a veteran-laden roster and minimal flexibility from a salary cap perspective, it’s a big checklist for them to navigate through this summer.

Hire A GM

Before even getting into what needs to be done, the Sharks need to determine who is going to do the work.  Interim GM Joe Will clearly has the green light to make moves as evidenced by the contract extensions for Alexander Barabanov and Jaycob Megna earlier this month.  Ownership has expressed an openness to having Will take the team through the draft and potentially into free agency as well.  While that’s a nice short-term vote of confidence, it doesn’t seem as if Will is considered a strong candidate for the full-time position.

But it isn’t just a matter of who the next GM will be, it’s when that person takes over.  If Will has control going into free agency, it’s possible he makes decisions that his successor won’t like.  That makes that scenario a tough one to play out.  As a result, determining who the full-time GM will be and getting that person under contract as soon as possible needs to be at the top of their priority list.

Move A Goalie

Most of the time, a three-goalie system isn’t tenable for a full season.  San Jose was able to make it work after the trade deadline with Adin Hill missing time but he’ll be fully recovered for training camp.  James Reimer is still on the roster while Kaapo Kahkonen was brought in at the deadline in the Jacob Middleton trade.  At first glance, it sure seems like one of them needs to be moved.

Kahkonen is the youngest of the three at 25 and is a restricted free agent this summer.  To move a quality young blueliner for him only to trade Kahkonen away later doesn’t seem likely to happen.  Instead, a multi-year contract that buys out some UFA years is probably their preferred outcome if they can afford it on the cap.

That leaves Hill and Reimer battling for one spot.  Both players have one year left on their contracts and will be UFA-eligible in 2023.  The cap hits are nearly identical ($2.25MM for Reimer, $2.175MM for Hill).  But when it comes to age and experience, there’s a big difference as the 34-year-old Reimer has 433 career NHL appearances while the 26-year-old Hill sits at 74.  If the Sharks are prioritizing the longer-term, Hill has the most upside but it’s also possible that it comes down to if one is willing to sign an extension this summer.  Neither netminder is likely to carry much trade value but it would be tough for the Sharks to carry all three on the roster in October.

Meier Extension Talks

Back in 2019, the Sharks signed winger Timo Meier to a four-year, $24MM contract as a restricted free agent.  On its own, the AAV was reasonable and it allowed him to still be RFA-eligible at the end of the deal.  But his contract was the most extreme of the backloaded contracts done that summer as his salary for next season is $10MM.  Since that deal was signed before the new CBA, he’s not subjected to the new rule where the qualifier is the lower of the previous salary or 120% of the AAV.  In other words, they have to qualify him at $10MM next summer if he’s not on a new contract by then.

A few years ago when the salary cap was steadily on the rise, the number would have been a little inflated but potentially manageable.  Now, with the Upper Limit barely moving for the time being, offering Meier $10MM isn’t manageable, at least with the state of the rest of their roster.

While Meier is signed for next season already, there is a pressure point of sorts this summer.  In an ideal world, San Jose doesn’t want him to enter 2022-23 without a new deal in place.  Getting to next summer where Meier either has to be let go or qualified at an above-market rate isn’t palatable for the team.  As a result, finding a suitable extension now has to be a priority.  Meier is worth a raise on his current AAV and is coming off a career year that saw him pick up 35 goals and 41 assists but it shouldn’t be up to $10MM per season.  Whoever is named as the permanent GM is going to have a big negotiation this summer as a result.

Free Up Cap Space

The Sharks have some big contracts on the books, especially on the back end where they have over $31MM in commitments and that doesn’t include RFA Mario Ferraro who is coming off a season where he logged 23 minutes a game.  Even without arbitration eligibility, he’s in a good position to command a sizable raise of his own off his entry-level salary.

Right now, San Jose could get through the summer okay.  They could try to sign Ferraro and Kahkonen for one year, sign their other RFAs to one-year deals, trade a goalie, and manage to narrowly stay cap-compliant by carrying a roster close to the minimum size.  But will they be any better than they’ve been the last few seasons?  Probably not.  Looking ahead to the 2023 summer, they’ll have 11 players signed at just over $57.5MM which doesn’t leave a lot of wiggle room for improvement in the future either, especially considering Meier needs a new deal that summer.

As a result, if they want to add an impact player or even have the flexibility to shake up their roster, they need to move a big contract.  Brent Burns ($8MM through 2024-25), Erik Karlsson ($11.5MM through 2026-27), and Marc-Edouard Vlasic ($7MM through 2025-26) are the oft-discussed possibilities although they each have at least some form of trade protection and not a particularly robust trade market because of their contracts.  No one said it would be easy but for the Sharks to have a chance to shake things up, they will need to find a way to move out one of those rearguards.

Resolve Kane Grievance

There is one other factor at play when it comes to San Jose’s summer and that’s the Evander Kane situation.  The expectation is that it will be resolved by the start of free agency but there is still plenty of uncertainty surrounding whether or not his deal will be put back on their books, the termination will be upheld, or, most likely, a settlement is reached which is what happened with the Kings and Mike Richards when things went down that path back in 2015.  The details of any potential settlement will go a long way towards determining what space they have to work with this summer and how much extra emphasis will have to be placed on clearing out one of their existing contracts.  The sooner they find out the end result of this, the better.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Offseason Checklist: Anaheim Ducks

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The offseason has arrived for half of the league’s teams that weren’t playoff-bound plus those who were eliminated early in the postseason.  It’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Anaheim.

The Ducks got off to a good start this season which had them in the thick of the playoff race for most of the year before slowing down late in the year which helped lead to a significant sale at the trade deadline.  GM Pat Verbeek now has a largely clean slate to work with as he enters his first summer at the helm but has some work to do.

Leverage Cap Space

At the moment, Anaheim has over $39MM in cap space with their most prominent restricted free agents being forwards Sonny Milano, Isac Lundestrom, and Sam Steel.  They’re all capable young players but none of them are going to break the bank and significantly cut into that spending room.  If Verbeek has the green light to go to the $82.5MM Upper Limit, he could be a big player in the summer spending around the league.

The big question is what is the best way to spend that money?  They could try to go for the quick fix and look to add several impact veterans which would help replace the exodus of veterans at the trade deadline.  At a time when many teams will have to show restraint in free agency, the Ducks could splurge.  That said, with what’s coming down the pipeline a year from now (more on that shortly), is that the best route for them to take?  And is the rebuild ready to be over or does more work need to be done?  If the answer is the latter, spending big now makes less sense.

If they’re not ready to spend big just yet, then leveraging that cap space in trade talks might be the better way for Anaheim to go.  They should be able to get some future assets in exchange for acquiring an above-market contract with the approach that Arizona has taken recently.  Those contracts will often be shorter in length compared to what they’d be handing out to free agents in July which would preserve their flexibility when their young core is closer to being ready to try to contend.  Retaining salary in a trade (or being a third-party facilitator) to add extra assets is another option as well.  One way or the other, Verbeek will need to take advantage of the opportunity he has with the scarcity of cap space around the league.

Determine Gibson’s Future

Few players have been with the Ducks as long as John Gibson has.  Along the way, the 28-year-old has seen his fair share of ups and downs, both in terms of Anaheim’s performance and his own.  Back at training camp, however, he voiced his frustration with the team shifting towards a rebuild, indicating he was tired of losing.  That has resulted in plenty of speculation about his future with the team.

This isn’t a situation where Gibson is on an expiring contract and a decision of either extend or trade needs to happen.  With five years left on his deal, they’re not going to be in that situation anytime soon.  But with Gibson’s discontentment about where Anaheim has been from a competitive standpoint, they will have to consider whether or not to move him, especially if Verbeek intends to extend the rebuild for another year or two.  Keeping a player who is clearly going to be frustrated with that situation isn’t ideal.

That said, it’s not as if his trade market is particularly strong.  His .904 SV% was below the NHL average this season while a 3.19 GAA isn’t overly impressive either.  Part of that is playing behind a team that had a lot of inexperienced players but that’s only part of it; Gibson wasn’t particularly sharp as well.  For perspective, his save percentage has hovered around that mark for the last three seasons.  A netminder with those numbers that has another half of a decade left on his contract at a $6.4MM AAV isn’t going to carry a lot of trade value.  In general, starting goalies don’t carry great value in the first place but certainly, ones that have underachieved as Gibson has aren’t going to have a lot of suitors.

Are they better selling low and taking a run at a replacement goalie in free agency to partner with Anthony Stolarz next season or do they hold onto one of their longest-tenured players even with him being unhappy about rebuilding?  Neither scenario is great but it’s something that will need to be looked at this summer.

Extension Talks

Right now, cap space is plentiful but that is going to change next summer when three of their top young players are all in need of new contracts.

Troy Terry had a breakout year, leading the Ducks in scoring with 37 goals and 30 assists in 75 games after putting up just 48 points in his first 129 career contests.  The low output led to a bridge contract which he has clearly outperformed already.  Since he’s on his second contract already, the 24-year-old will be arbitration-eligible next summer where he’ll be two years away from UFA eligibility and anything close to a repeat season would push his asking price into the $7MM or more range on a long-term deal while giving him a strong arbitration case if got that far.  If Verbeek is convinced that Terry’s production wasn’t a one-off but rather a sign of things to come, it would make sense for him to try to work out an extension now.

Meanwhile, Trevor Zegras and Jamie Drysdale will be in the final year of their entry-level deals next season and are also extension-eligible in mid-July.  Both players will have five years of team control left next summer and won’t be able to file for arbitration.  Zegras didn’t look out of place as their top center last season and with Ryan Getzlaf gone, he will be carrying a bigger workload as well which could result in a jump from the 61 points he had this season.  Drysdale, meanwhile, averaged nearly 20 minutes per game in his first NHL campaign while chipping in with 32 points, numbers that should only go up in 2022-23.  Many teams often try to work out an early extension over running the risk of an extended negotiation the following summer and Verbeek will certainly want to do that here.

Getting these extensions worked out early would give the Ducks a much better overview of what their salary cap picture will look like in 2023 and beyond.  Three long-term contracts will take a big chunk out of their spending room but if the two sides are too far apart in negotiations to the point where a shorter-term deal makes sense (more for Drysdale and Zegras than Terry), that would then open up some extra spending room for a couple of years.  The sooner they know what they have to work with, the better.

Coaching Decisions

Verbeek opted to pick up the team option on Dallas Eakins’ deal, ensuring he’ll return for his fourth season behind Anaheim’s bench.  But teams often don’t like their head coaches heading into ‘lame-duck’ situations so this might not be desirable for the team.  In those instances, a one-year or two-year extension could be on the table, one that takes away any short-term uncertainty but also doesn’t carry a significant commitment if things go sideways and Verbeek decides he wants to make a change.

There is also some work to do at the AHL level as a full coaching staff is required for the second straight summer.  Joel Bouchard along with assistants Daniel Jacob and Max Talbot were somewhat surprisingly let go after their first season following San Diego being eliminated in the play-in round for the playoffs.  AHL coaching staffs don’t have to be in place at the start of free agency but if they want to try to go after some free agents that are ticketed for the Gulls, it would be useful for them to have their staff in place by then to avoid any uncertainty as those free agents will likely want to know who is coaching before they sign.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Offseason Checklist: Buffalo Sabres

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The offseason has arrived for half of the league’s teams that weren’t playoff-bound plus those that were eliminated early in the postseason.  It’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Buffalo.

It wasn’t a great year in the standings but things are looking up for the Sabres.  The team was much more competitive in Don Granato’s first season behind the bench and several of their young players made promising strides to show that brighter days could soon be on the horizon.  With that in mind, Buffalo’s checklist looks a bit different than it has in recent years as they should now begin the process of trying to add talent and emerge from their rebuild.

Sign A Veteran Goalie

At the moment, Buffalo has six goaltenders under contract.  Once the calendar flips to the new league year in July, that number drops to zero.  GM Kevyn Adams will be busy on that front, to say the least, both in terms of NHL and AHL signings.  Let’s look at the NHL situation here.

It’s widely expected that Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen will be promoted from the minors to fill one of the two spots with Buffalo as he continues his development and the team continues to evaluate whether or not he’ll be the goalie of the future for them.  But the most games he has played in any of his professional seasons is 44.  Between that and the fact he has just 13 NHL appearances under his belt, it’s safe to say that he’s not yet ready to assume the true starting role.

As a result, Adams will be looking for a veteran that is capable of playing more than a typical backup role.  A short-term starter would make some sense or failing that, a platoon netminder to split time with Luukkonen would also work.  Craig Anderson is among Buffalo’s pending unrestricted free agents and it seems like re-signing the 41-year-old would be their preference as he fit in quite well in his first season with Buffalo.  It’s questionable if he can hold up under a higher workload than the 31 games he played in 2021-22 so if he is their choice, a veteran third-stringer to stash at AHL Rochester certainly would make some sense.

Decide Olofsson’s Future

Victor Olofsson has had an up-and-down tenure with Buffalo so far.  After a surprise showing in his rookie season that saw him put up 20 goals and 22 assists in just 54 games, the two sides settled on a bridge contract, a reasonable course of action.  The first year didn’t go well and for the majority of this season, things weren’t much better.  At the end of February, he had just seven goals in 44 games and looked like he could be heading for non-tender territory.

But once March hit, the 26-year-old suddenly rediscovered his scoring touch, potting 13 goals along with 12 assists in the final 28 games.  While the usual caveat about reading too much into production when a team is well out of playoff contention certainly applies, Olofsson may have shown enough to warrant another contract.

If that’s the case, what is the right deal?  This is Olofsson’s final year of RFA eligibility so it’s not as if they can work out a short-term pact and then re-assess before he’s UFA-eligible.  With him being unrestricted no matter what, a one-year contract isn’t ideal from Buffalo’s perspective while finding common ground on a long-term deal could be tricky given the year-to-year variability in his performance.

Olofsson is owed a $3.25MM qualifying offer and has arbitration eligibility this summer.  With a little over six weeks until qualifiers are due, Adams will need to make a decision on this front sooner than later.

Add Defensive Help

At the moment, Buffalo has just three defensemen signed for next season that are locks to make the opening roster.  They’re all aged 22 or younger in Rasmus Dahlin, Henri Jokiharju, and Owen Power.  That’s a solid cluster of young impact blueliners that are going to be around for a little while but they need some veteran support.

This is something that the Sabres haven’t really tried to address in recent years which is understandable with the team clearly more interested in being at the bottom of the standings than the top over that stretch.  Doing so allowed Dahlin and Jokiharju to log heavy minutes and play through some mistakes.

However, assuming their plan is to start to push forward with trying to get back to the playoffs after missing the postseason for an 11th straight year, they need some veterans capable of logging heavy minutes to work with these three.  In an ideal world, they find three of them, one to partner with each youngster which would allow someone like Mattias Samuelsson to see more AHL action.

That said, adding three impact blueliners would be a tall task for any team, especially since there aren’t a lot of them available in free agency this summer.  With more than ample cap space though, this seems like an area where Adams should have the green light to bid aggressively.  Three would be perfect, two would be nice, but one is simply a necessity if they want to help their goalies and more importantly, help their young rearguards find another level in their development.

Thompson Extension Talks

The first season of Tage Thompson’s bridge contract didn’t go well as he put up just 14 points in 38 games in 2020-21.  Heading into this season, expectations were quite low as a result.  If he could lock down a full-time spot and play with some consistency, it likely would have been viewed as a success.

But what the 24-year-old did in 2021-22 was far beyond realistic expectations, likely beyond even the most optimistic projections for Thompson as he put up 38 goals and 30 assists.  That goal total put him 19th in the entire league while he also made the transition to playing down the middle.  While it took several years, Thompson certainly showed the offensive promise that made him a first-round pick back in 2016.

Thompson’s timing for his offensive outburst was pretty optimal as well as he’s eligible to sign a contract extension once free agency opens up in mid-July and he officially enters the final year of his deal.  If Adams and the Sabres believe that Thompson’s performance is a sign of things to come, they will almost certainly try to work out an extension this summer as anything close to a repeat performance in 2022-23 will only drive the asking price higher.  Meanwhile, after being a depth player for the first few years of his career, the prospect of a big money, long-term extension might appeal to Thompson.  This is something that doesn’t have to happen but it wouldn’t be surprising to see both sides take a run at an extension in the coming months.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Offseason Checklist: Detroit Red Wings

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The offseason has arrived for half of the league’s teams that weren’t playoff-bound plus some that were eliminated early in the playoffs.  It’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Detroit.

It has been a rough few seasons for the Red Wings.  After their streak of 25 straight playoff appearances came to an end in 2017, they haven’t seen the playoffs since then.  They have brought in several promising youngsters in recent years and the expectation is that they’ll soon get back to battling for a playoff spot at a minimum.  With that in mind, their summer checklist is more geared towards win-now moves compared to recent years.

Hire A Head Coach

First things first.  After parting ways with Jeff Blashill, who had been one of the longer-tenured coaches in the league, Detroit now needs a new bench boss for the first time since 2015 when Mike Babcock left for Toronto.  Blashill’s tenure wasn’t overly successful in terms of his record (204-261-72) but with the team going through a reset, it wasn’t as much of a concern.  But now with an expectation of more on-ice success, GM Steve Yzerman decided now is the right time for a change.

With that in mind, it will be interesting to see what direction they go.  Are they looking for someone that is going to help them get back to the playoffs first and foremost or are they hoping for a longer-term fit?  The two don’t have to be mutually exclusive but the first category opens up the ability to hire a veteran coach who can get quick results but who typically has a short shelf life, giving them some extra options to consider.  On the other hand, if Yzerman is looking for a long-term fit, then the potential for a first-time hire stands out a bit more.

Either way, getting a coach in place well before the summer transactions get underway will be important as whoever takes the job will likely want to provide some input on what else the Red Wings do this summer.

Extension Talks

Two of Detroit’s top players will be eligible for contract extensions once free agency opens up in July in Dylan Larkin and Tyler Bertuzzi.  Larkin, their captain, has been on a bargain contract for the past four seasons with a $6.1MM AAV, a price tag that’s below market value for a number one center.  That will certainly change on his next contract as recent comparables will likely push his price tag over the $8MM mark per season.  There’s no doubt that Yzerman will want to extend the Michigan native and keep him in the fold, especially since they don’t have an up-and-coming number one center behind him.  In Tampa Bay, Yzerman’s talks with captain Steven Stamkos went right down to the wire.  In an ideal world, that doesn’t happen so they’re likely to try to hammer something out this summer.

As for Bertuzzi, while he was in the headlines for not being able to play in Canada due to his vaccination status, that overshadowed a career year that saw him set career highs in goals (30) and assists (32) in 68 games while averaging nearly 20 minutes a night.  That’s top-line production at a $4.75MM price tag which is also well below market value.  Bertuzzi is a couple of years older than Larkin but at 27, he’s still young enough to be part of the core.  This summer, Yzerman needs to find out what Bertuzzi’s asking price is to see if it fits within their future salary structure.  If not, his name could be in trade speculation soon after.

Reshape The Back End

Detroit’s back end got a big lift this season with the arrival of Moritz Seider who is a very strong contender to win the Calder Trophy as the top rookie next month.  However, their defense corps has been a weak spot for the past several seasons and will need to be addressed this offseason.

Long-time rearguard Danny DeKeyser is set to become an unrestricted free agent this summer and is unlikely to return unless it’s at a very steep discount.  Marc Staal is also a pending UFA and while he’s not the higher-end shutdown player he was in his prime, he still filled a stable stay-at-home role for the Red Wings over the last couple of years.  He could be back but would need to be replaced if he doesn’t return.

At the moment, there are only three other regular defensemen signed for next season beyond Seider – Filip Hronek, Gustav Lindstrom, and Jordan Oesterle.  Hronek had a tough year in his own end but has some trade value if they decide to shake things up while Lindstrom and Oesterle are better as depth pieces.  So, too, are recent signing Steven Kampfer and pending RFAs Olli Juolevi and Jake Walman.  Beyond Hronek, none of those players should be in impact roles next season.

Detroit will have another top youngster coming to North America in 2022-23 in Simon Edvinsson and while he has shown plenty of promise, it’s hard to expect he’ll come in and suddenly solve all of their defensive issues.  Adding an impact veteran (if not two) will be needed to help shore up a group that allowed the third-most goals in the league this season and help take some pressure off the goaltenders.  Fortunately, they have over $35MM in cap space at their disposal so they can afford to shop at the higher end of the market this summer.

Find A New Second Goalie

Speaking of their goalies, Detroit needs to find a second goaltender to partner with Alex Nedeljkovic.  Thomas Greiss had a particularly tough season and is unlikely to be retained while Calvin Pickard, their third-string option, is also a pending UFA and isn’t really in the mix for an NHL spot either.  Magnus Hellberg signed late in the year but he’s more of a viable third-string option than a strong contender for the backup spot.

As usual, there are several Greiss-like goalies available, veterans that can be signed for a year or two to continue the platoon and maintain the status quo.  Alternatively, a handful of netminders could be moved this summer that could be plausible platoon options as well.

That said, are the Red Wings better off looking for a longer-term option?  Darcy Kuemper still has a few years as a starter left in him while Ville Husso and Jack Campbell have both shown flashes and are young enough to be around for a while.  While Detroit has Sebastian Cossa, a prospect they have high hopes for, it typically takes a few years for a goaltender to be NHL-ready.  Instead of continuing to churn through goalies for short-term fixes, perhaps a longer-term solution that serves as a bridge to Cossa is a better way for them to go this summer.  Either way, they will need a new netminder in the next couple of months.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Salary figures courtesy of CapFriendly.

Offseason Checklist: Ottawa Senators

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The offseason has arrived for half of the league’s teams that aren’t playoff-bound plus some that were eliminated early in the playoffs.  It’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Ottawa.

Before last season, Senators GM Pierre Dorion declared the rebuild over.  The team went on to post a weaker points percentage and finished seventh in the Atlantic Division after finishing sixth in the North the year before.  Nevertheless, they’re still on the right path towards trying to get back into the playoff picture and their checklist follows that mindset with a mixture of retaining their current core and trying to add to it.

Shore Up Goaltending

One area that hasn’t been pretty the last couple of years is between the pipes.  Anton Forsberg exceeded expectations as a waiver claim and did well enough to earn himself a three-year extension just before the trade deadline.  After him, however, there are question marks; even Forsberg is somewhat of a question with just 104 games under his belt.

Matt Murray has struggled mightily in his two seasons with Ottawa, posting a 3.23 GAA and a SV% of just .899 over that stretch.  He suffered a concussion back in early March, the third documented one of his career already after having two in quick succession with Pittsburgh.  At this point, it’s hard to rely on him to provide much even though he has two years left on his contract at a $6.25MM AAV, one that’s effectively untradeable.

Their other in-house option is Filip Gustavsson.  Once viewed as a key goalie prospect of Ottawa’s future, he has underwhelmed in his limited NHL action so far.  He is waiver-eligible next season so he’s likely to be on the roster although relying on him would also be risky.

This is not a trio of goaltenders that will inspire a lot of confidence for a team with playoff aspirations.  Finding a capable second goaltender to partner with Forsberg would give them a big lift.  It’ll be easier said than done with Murray on the books and Gustavsson’s trade value not exactly at its peak but Dorion would be wise to try to bring in an upgrade between the pipes.

Flip The Switch

Regardless of whether or not they’re able to shore up the goaltending, Dorion needs to start focusing on some win-now moves.  They’re not going to go from being near the basement to a contender right away but the time has come to start shopping for veterans that are going to help the process of turning things around.

Up front, that means looking for a top-six winger.  Ottawa’s front line appears to be set with Brady Tkachuk and Drake Batherson flanking Joshua Norris.  However, with Tim Stutzle anchoring the second line, his options on the wing aren’t anywhere near as strong and have been a collection of youngsters looking to establish themselves in the NHL or a veteran like Connor Brown who has been more of a two-way player than a consistent offensive threat.  Bringing in a quality scoring winger would elevate Stutzle’s play and really give the Senators a second line that’s capable of producing with consistency.

There’s also work that needs to be done on the back end beyond non-tendering Victor Mete and parting with Michael Del Zotto.  Travis Hamonic was brought in to try to stabilize a back end that bleeds shots allowed (more than 33 per game after allowing just over 32 per game the year before) but while he’s a stable veteran, that alone isn’t going to change their fortunes.  A full season from Jake Sanderson probably doesn’t hurt but another impact defender would make a big difference.

Ottawa doesn’t yet have $60MM in commitments for next season and while that will change once they re-sign their restricted free agents, they will have ample room to try to add.  If they opt to buy out Colin White (at a cap charge of $3.75MM total spread out over six seasons), they’ll have nearly $4MM extra to work with this summer as well.

Re-Sign Norris

Last summer, it was Tkachuk that was in line for a big contract coming off his entry-level deal.  This year, it’s Norris.  The 23-year-old had a breakout campaign, leading Ottawa in goals with 35 while finishing third in points with 55.  Dorion’s preference has been to sign long-term contracts off expiring entry-level pacts as he did for Tkachuk, Batherson, and Thomas Chabot so he’s likely going to want to do the same here.

One of the challenges that both sides will here is Norris’ shorter track record.  His first season was just three games and he has only 125 career NHL appearances under his belt, the equivalent of a year and a half.  That isn’t a big sample size to go off of and he doesn’t have arbitration eligibility so this has the potential to be a particularly drawn-out negotiation.  If Ottawa wants to skip the bridge contract and look for a long-term pact, Norris’ camp is likely to point to Nick Suzuki’s contract in Montreal (eight years, $7.875MM AAV) which would also stay within their salary structure as it would check in a little below Tkachuk and Chabot.

Extension Talks

Speaking of long-term contracts handed out to players coming off of their entry-level contracts, Ottawa could be in that situation next summer with Stutzle’s deal coming to an end.  After a stronger sophomore year, Dorion will likely want to kick the tires on what an extension now might cost, knowing that a stronger platform season would result in a higher asking price the following year.  It’s likely to fall in the range of Tkachuk, Chabot, and probably Norris in terms of the AAV.

Ottawa also has a pair of intriguing players that will be unrestricted next summer and thus eligible for extension talks at the start of the new league year in mid-July.  Brown has been a solid performer since coming over from Toronto but is his role likelier to stay where it is now or do they envision him being more of a third-liner down the road?  The answer to that will go a long way in determining whether or not discussions of a new deal make sense.

The other UFA of note in 2023 is defenseman Artem Zub.  His numbers don’t jump off the page (22 points in 81 games) but he logged over 21 minutes a night and is a right-shot defender that will hit the open market in 2023 at the age of 27.  In other words, there is going to be a lot of interest if he gets to that point.  Dorion moved quickly to extend Zub when his entry-level contract ended and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him try to get an early extension done again.  If so, his teammate Nikita Zaitsev’s contract ($4.5MM AAV) is a possible comparable.

For the last few seasons, the Senators have been near the bottom in spending on the cap.  As their young core matures and other veterans are added or brought in to deepen the roster, that’s going to change fast.  The more certainty they can get on the spending front, the better which is why being proactive on the contract discussion front should be a priority for Dorion.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Salary figures courtesy of CapFriendly.

Offseason Checklist: Chicago Blackhawks

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The offseason has arrived for half of the league’s teams that aren’t playoff-bound plus some that were eliminated early in the playoffs.  It’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Chicago.

There were high hopes for the Blackhawks to start this season after a summer that saw them add a new top defender in Seth Jones, a new starting goalie in Marc-Andre Fleury, as well as some extra depth up front.  The hope was that these improvements would help get them back into the playoff picture after missing the postseason the year before.  It didn’t happen.  Instead, mired with off-ice controversy and on-ice struggles, things snowballed in the opposite direction and instead of building for the playoffs, GM Kyle Davidson has committed to going for a rebuild instead.  As a result, he has a busy summer ahead of him.

Coaching Decision

After Jeremy Colliton was let go after just a dozen games, Derek King was elevated from coaching with AHL Rockford to fill in on an interim basis for the rest of the season.  His record wasn’t stellar by any stretch (27-33-10) but the team was much more competitive under King despite having nothing to play for but pride for most of the season.

Davidson decided that he wants to undergo a full coaching search and one of the questions he’ll have to answer is the type of coach he’s looking for.  Is he looking for a long-term fixture to grow with the team or is it someone to take them through this transitional period?  If it’s the latter, someone like King – who will interview for the full-time job – becomes a legitimate candidate with how Chicago performed down the stretch.  A veteran coach doesn’t seem like a good fit for a rebuilding squad but Davidson has committed to a thorough search so there will undoubtedly be some veteran coaches considered over the coming weeks on top of some first-time options.

On top of hiring a head coach, Davidson and whoever he picks as his bench boss will need to fill a couple of vacancies on the bench after the team dismissed associate coach Marc Crawford and assistant coach Rob Cookson this summer.

Build A Goalie Tandem

In terms of Chicago’s on-ice personnel, there is a lot of work to be done this summer between the pipes.  Fleury was moved to Minnesota at the trade deadline while holdovers Kevin Lankinen and Collin Delia are both pending unrestricted free agents.  As it stands, the only goalie with professional experience that’s signed for next season is Arvid Soderblom.  Suffice it to say, they have some work to do.

After an impressive first NHL season, Lankinen struggled considerably this year with a save percentage of just .891.  A year ago, it looked like he could be a sought-after netminder in free agency but now, his market will have cooled considerably.  Still, a return to Chicago could be an option in a backup role.  Delia is someone that has been around the organization for a while (five years) but never has really emerged beyond being a good AHL netminder that can play a handful of NHL contests when needed.  With the Blackhawks wanting to give Soderblom and Jaxson Stauber lots of action with AHL Rockford, Delia seems likely to move on.

Davidson could try to go after a younger free agent goalie in Jack Campbell or Ville Husso with the hope that they’ll still be on the team when they’re ready to try to contend again but that seems like an unlikely scenario.  Instead, veterans on short-term contracts that give them some flexibility seems like the smarter way to go for them.  They’ll need a couple of them over the next few months.

Rebuild The Rest

There are few core players on Chicago that should be viewed as untouchable.  With them appearing to be eyeing a multi-year process, anyone that isn’t signed or under team control through that time could very well be expendable.

Blackhawks GM Kyle Davidson has a very busy offseason ahead of him.The biggest decisions that will need to be made in the short term involve winger Patrick Kane and center Jonathan Toews.  Both players have spent their entire careers (14 years for Toews, 15 for Kane) in Chicago and have been on identical contracts since 2010.  They’re set to enter the final year of their deals that carry a $10.5MM cap hit.  Are they a part of the future plans?  Davidson allowed for the possibility that they could stick around but will the veterans be willing to go through several more years of losing?  If not, then they will have to give serious consideration to trading their long-time pillars.  Are those moves easier to make now when moving salary is a bit easier or closer to the trade deadline when most of the cap hit has been covered already?  That, along with the possibility of extensions, will likely have to be jointly explored this summer.

Other veterans will likely be on the move as well to add future assets and try to free up some cap flexibility.  Blueliner Jake McCabe and Connor Murphy along with center Tyler Johnson are all potential options either this summer or at some point during the season.

RFA Decisions

Two younger veterans that could fit in the above category as well are Dominik Kubalik and Dylan Strome.  Both are restricted free agents this summer with qualifying offers ($4MM for Kubalik, $3.6MM for Strome) that are a bit high relative to their performance in recent years.  Kubalik had 30 goals in his rookie season but just 32 in the last two combined.  Strome, meanwhile, has been hit or miss since joining Chicago in 2018, at times looking like a capable top-six player and others where he struggled to the point of being a healthy scratch.

Not that long ago, both players were viewed as potential long-term fits for the Blackhawks but that isn’t the case now due to their inconsistency and somewhat recent struggles.  Kubalik was available at the trade deadline with minimal interest while Strome has been available off and on going back more than a year although his strong finish (36 points in his last 40 games) could help his chances of sticking around with a one-year, ‘prove it’ type of contract.

Can they keep both?  With their cap situation, can they afford to keep both?  They can opt for club-elected arbitration which carries a minimum salary of 85% of the qualifying offer but there’s no guarantee the arbitrator will agree with that valuation and there are no walkaway rights with club-elected arbitration.  Chicago can try to negotiate a lower-priced deal but there’s no requirement for Kubalik and Strome to agree to something like that.  Accordingly, don’t be surprised if both players are in the rumor mill in the coming weeks to see if there’s a trade return that could be palatable if Davidson doesn’t want to pay the cost to keep them.

DeBrincat Extension Talks

One player that Davidson will undoubtedly be willing to pay the cost to keep is winger Alex DeBrincat.  He signed a three-year bridge deal back in 2019 and has outperformed it, scoring 73 goals in just 134 games since then, including 41 this season.  With his contract coming before the CBA extension, he’s subject to the old qualifying offer rules which means his 2022-23 salary of $9MM represents his qualifying offer next summer.

The 24-year-old will be eligible for an extension once the new league year starts in mid-July. DeBrincat looks like a centerpiece of Chicago’s rebuilding process so locking him up as soon as possible is something that needs to be explored.  It wouldn’t be surprising to see discussions on a new agreement begin sooner than later as a result.  A deal doesn’t have to be done now but if something isn’t agreed on, he’ll enter next summer a year away from UFA eligibility which always carries some risk.  Expect Davidson to try to avoid that if he can.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Salary figures courtesy of CapFriendly.

Offseason Checklist: New Jersey Devils

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The offseason has arrived for half of the league’s teams that aren’t playoff-bound plus some that were eliminated early in the playoffs.  It’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at New Jersey.

While the Devils made a big splash last summer when they handed Dougie Hamilton the biggest UFA contract, they weren’t picked by many to contend for a playoff spot this season.  That said, not many expected them to struggle as much as they did either.  They’re a team that’s viewed as being on the rise with a good young nucleus so the focus now needs to be on strengthening their squad to get back into postseason contention which is a big part of their summer checklist.

Defensive Decisions

GM Tom Fitzgerald has a few decisions to make this summer when it comes to his back end.  For starters, Damon Severson and Ryan Graves will be entering the final year of their respective contracts next season and both will be UFA-eligible next summer.  Severson had a career year this season and was their top defender in terms of production and playing time.  That has him in line for a sizable raise on his current $4.167MM AAV.  But with Hamilton (another right-shot rearguard) locked up at $9MM per year through 2027-28, can they afford another high-priced blueliner on that side?  If a deal can’t be reached, then he becomes a trade candidate.

Graves’ situation is a little trickier.  He quietly had a career year offensively and didn’t look out of place in his first season with New Jersey.  But his track record is a lot smaller; he has just three full NHL seasons under his belt and two of those were shortened due to COVID.  He’s trending towards a raise on his $3.33MM AAV but has he shown enough to be part of their long-term plans?  If so, Fitzgerald will likely want to try to work on an extension once he’s eligible to sign one in July.

The other decision they’ll need to make pertains to P.K. Subban.  While it’s likely that he won’t be retained, how are they going to redistribute his $9MM cap hit across the roster?  They have the ability to try to swing big and add another impact blueliner or try to use some of that to cover extensions for one or both of Severson and Graves.  Alternatively, if Fitzgerald opted to reallocate the bulk of that money to his forward group, that could bolster their forward unit.  With the team being near the middle of the pack in that regard this season, a big boost up front could propel them closer to the top ten in that department.

Re-Sign Bratt

If someone was to ask who New Jersey’s top scorer was this season, it’d be understandable the first name that came to mind was either Jack Hughes or Nico Hischier, their core building blocks down the middle.  But that wouldn’t be the right answer.  No, the leading scorer was winger Jesper Bratt, a player who more than doubled his previous career-high in points while putting up 26 goals and 47 assists in 76 games.  He picked a perfect time to do so as he’s set to be a restricted free agent this summer with arbitration eligibility.  As a result, a new deal for the 23-year-old will be high on Fitzgerald’s to-do list.

It won’t be an easy task, however, when it comes to finding the right number for a contract.  Is his 73-point season a sign of things to come or an outlier considering his other four NHL seasons had point totals between 30 and 35?  Bratt’s camp will certainly argue the former while the Devils will want to hedge against the latter.  Fitzgerald has stated his intention to get Bratt signed to a long-term contract and with only two RFA years remaining, it’s going to take a big number to get the winger to lock down the prime years of his career.  He’s coming off a deal that carried a $2.75MM AAV and a long-term deal that buys out some UFA seasons will almost certainly cost double that or more.

Add A Goalie

Two years ago, the Devils thought they had the right veteran partner for Mackenzie Blackwood when they signed Corey Crawford to a two-year deal.  However, he had a last-minute change of heart, retiring before training camp.  New Jersey went down a similar path last summer, inking Jonathan Bernier to a two-year deal.  But a hip injury limited him to just ten games this season and he may not be ready to start 2022-23.  In the meantime, Blackwood’s stock has fallen considerably from a goalie on the rise to one that couldn’t crack the top 50 in the NHL in SV% among qualifying goaltenders this season.

Generally speaking, carrying three goaltenders isn’t a desirable situation.  But for the Devils, it’s basically a necessity to hedge against Bernier’s injury and Blackwood’s struggles.  Nico Daws was okay in his first taste of NHL duty but he needs to be in the minors for another season or two so they’ll need to look outside the organization for that third netminder.

The UFA market would be the easiest way to go with players like Jack Campbell and Ville Husso representing upside buys, albeit risky ones with their limited track records.  Veterans like Marc-Andre Fleury and Braden Holtby are shorter-term options if their intention is to just shore the position up for now and look for the big fix later.  (Darcy Kuemper is also available but it’s hard to see the Devils being the winner for his services.)  With where New Jersey is in terms of still emerging from its rebuild though, will they be appealing to those free agents if they’re looking to win sooner than later?

The trade market is another option although that market won’t materialize for a while.  Alexandar Georgiev should be available but is he much of an upgrade (and would the Rangers move him to their rival)?  Washington may move one of their goalies if they can land a more proven veteran but again, they come with question marks.  Others will come available over the coming months but will they be considerable upgrades?  That’s far from a guarantee.

There aren’t any truly obvious choices here for New Jersey other than the fact they’ll need to add a goalie at some point over the next couple of months.

Add Win-Now Talent

While New Jersey opted to keep Lindy Ruff behind the bench (instead opting to make a couple of changes to their assistants), it’s fair to surmise he’ll be on a short leash to start next season.  At some point, they need to go from rebuilding to pushing for a playoff spot; they’ve only made the playoffs once in the last decade.  That switch should be flipped this summer.

They have a little over $25MM in cap space this summer with Bratt’s deal being the only one that will be a high-priced contract.  While they also need to re-sign Miles Wood and Pavel Zacha, they’ll have well above $10MM to spend on the open market or in trades which puts them in a much better position than most of the league.  While it’s understandable if they want to leave themselves a bit of a cap cushion heading into the season, they should be within a few million of the Upper Limit so there is definitely room to work with.

They have the ability to outbid teams in free agency as they did for Hamilton last summer.  They can take on a bad contract for cheap in a trade that would double as an upgrade on their roster.  The options are plentiful but by the time October rolls around, Fitzgerald needs to find a way to add multiple impact veteran players if the Devils are going to have a realistic shot of trying to get into the Wild Card hunt next season.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Salary figures courtesy of CapFriendly.

Offseason Checklist: Philadelphia Flyers

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The offseason has arrived for half of the league’s teams that aren’t playoff-bound plus some that were eliminated early in the playoffs.  It’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Philadelphia.

Things went off the rails early and often for the Flyers this season.  The team had high internal expectations and didn’t come close to meeting them.  Injuries hurt them considerably throughout the year, a coaching change did nothing to turn the tide, and Carter Hart put forth a second straight tough year.  Despite all that, they’re showing no signs of a rebuild so their checklist this summer may seem counterintuitive to the direction that many believe they should take.

Thread The Needle

GM Chuck Fletcher has talked about what he terms an aggressive retool.  On the surface, it appears that the intention there would be to shake up the core again, moving veterans for other veterans in the hopes that the new mix will result in better success.  They tried that last summer with the additions of Cam Atkinson and Ryan Ellis but while Atkinson had a decent season with 23 goals and 27 assists, Ellis was limited to just four games due to injury.  In the end, it didn’t really change their fortunes.

Fletcher now needs to find a way to make more of those swaps to make the team more competitive now while also not throwing away parts of his future as he did in the Rasmus Ristolainen trade.  While there will be teams open to those types of swaps since many will have salary cap challenges and will be limited to those types of trades involving impact players, finding the right combination of moves to spark the team isn’t going to be easy as the success rate around the league on those is nowhere near 100%.

Only one team scored fewer goals than the Flyers this season (Arizona) and only five allowed more goals so clearly, notable changes need to be made both up front and on the back end.  Full seasons from Sean Couturier and Ellis will help but that alone won’t be enough.  To borrow terms from other sports, Fletcher will need to thread the needle on a pretty significant sequence of moves and knock a few acquisitions out of the park.  They have their work cut out for them as a result.

Free Up Cap Space

Just when you might be thinking that the above seems pretty daunting in itself, let’s bring the salary cap into play now.  Philadelphia has less than $6MM in cap space this summer with Owen Tippett, Morgan Frost, and Zack MacEwen needing new deals up front and a replacement for Keith Yandle on the back end.  Even if that number is a little inflated with some of their end-of-season recalls, there isn’t much in the way of flexibility in terms of trying to make a splash in free agency.  Unless, of course, they can clear some money up first.

The obvious candidate on that front is James van Riemsdyk.  The 33-year-old has provided the Flyers with some decent secondary scoring in his second stint with the franchise, scoring at least 17 goals in each of his four years since returning (and that low mark came in the COVID-shortened 2020-21 campaign).  However, his effectiveness has waned as he ages and $7MM is an expensive price tag for someone who is best utilized as a middle-six winger.  It’s unlikely he’s going to turn things around next season and get back to the 30-goal mark so he’s someone that stands out as a trade candidate.  The question will be how much of an offset will be needed (either by retention or by taking a player back) or how much of an incentive they’ll need to provide to get a team to take the contract without sending any money back.  What happens with van Riemsdyk will go a long way towards determining what they can or can’t do this summer.

While they didn’t really get a chance to evaluate their full back end due to Ellis missing 78 games, it also seems likely that they will move a defender as part of their aggressive retool.  It won’t be Ellis as his value is down after missing almost the entire year and they just committed five years at $5.1MM per to Ristolainen; clearly, he’s not moving either.  That leaves Ivan Provorov ($6.75MM through 2024-25) and Travis Sanheim ($4.675MM in 2022-23, then becomes a UFA).  Provorov is coming off an underwhelming year so while moving him would save money, his trade value certainly isn’t at its best.  Sanheim is easier to move but yields less in cap savings.  But if they want to shake up the back end again, one of those two may need to be on the move as a result.

Hire A New Head Coach

After the decision to fire Alain Vigneault early in the season didn’t yield the results Fletcher was hoping for, the Flyers decided not to continue with Mike Yeo as their head coach for next season.  That puts finding a new bench boss very high on the priority list over the coming weeks.

With Philadelphia committed to trying to retool instead of rebuild, that could push them in the direction of a veteran coach over a first-timer in that role.  While long-time Flyer Rick Tocchet is viewed as a popular option, someone like Barry Trotz – who led quick turnarounds for the Capitals and Islanders – could stand out for that reason as well.  Paul Maurice is also a possible fit if he wanted to get back behind a bench so quickly after stepping away from Winnipeg.

Among the first-time head coaching options, Lane Lambert has long been speculated as a candidate but he could be promoted to the top spot for the Islanders after Trotz’s departure.  Nate Leaman is always an option to make the jump from the college ranks while Rikard Gronborg and Roger Ronnberg are international coaches that always come up at this time of year.  But again, a first-time NHL bench boss would be a bit surprising given their win-now intentions.  Regardless, it will be a crucial hire for Fletcher as with the way the last couple of seasons have gone, he may not get another one.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Salary figures courtesy of CapFriendly.

Offseason Checklist: Seattle Kraken

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The offseason has arrived for half of the league’s teams that aren’t playoff-bound.  It’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Seattle.

After the Golden Knights went to the Stanley Cup Final in their inaugural season, expectations were unrealistically high for the Kraken heading into their first year.  But even if they had the expectations of a typical expansion franchise, they still would have underachieved relative to those.  As a result, Seattle finds itself trying to build on multiple fronts this summer which is a certainly a tall task.

Find A New Goalie Coach

There was only one coaching casualty from their tough year and that was goalie coach Andrew Allen.  That move was understandable as, heading into the season, goaltending was believed to be their best strength with a tandem of Philipp Grubauer and Chris Driedger.  Instead, they had the lowest team save percentage in the NHL (.880) while sitting in the bottom ten in goals allowed despite allowing the fourth-fewest shots on goal.  Seattle will need to find a replacement coach and when it comes to their netminders, things can only go up from here.

Expand Young Core

Part of building an organization from scratch is trying to pick up some young core pieces.  They got one in the draft in Matthew Beniers and picked one in expansion in Jared McCann with the 25-year-old having a career year and quickly inking a long-term extension.  Beyond that, there isn’t that much of a young core.  That’s perfectly understandable after just one year of existence but this will be the top priority for GM Ron Francis this summer.

They’ll be able to add some key pieces at the draft.  They have the fourth pick in July’s draft plus four second-rounders that can be dangled in an effort to move up.  That should yield some nice long-term additions although most of those players will be several years away.

Back when the team was being assembled, cap flexibility was stated as a critical element of what they were doing.  This is something that the Kraken can use to their advantage this summer if they’re willing to take a bad contract or two while adding some more picks (or preferably prospects) like Arizona did last summer.  If the aim is to build a long-term contender, Seattle needs to have more than two long-term core pieces heading into next season.

Expand Current Core

Most general managers don’t lay out a road map for their planning but at his end-of-season news conference, Francis indicated a desire to add a top-six forward, a top-nine forward, and a puck-moving defenseman to his current group.  The forwards, in particular, could be added in free agency where the Kraken will have the ability to outbid most teams as they have nearly $23MM in cap room, per CapFriendly.  The UFA market for puck-moving blueliners isn’t as deep so going that route for that spot may be tougher so the trade front might be the better way for them there.

Last summer, Francis surprisingly handed a five-year contract to Jaden Schwartz in a move that didn’t work out too well with the oft-injured 29-year-old missing more than half of the season due to injuries.  That should serve as a cautionary tale for their free agent this time around when it comes to adding secondary scorers.

It wouldn’t be advisable to hand out similar long-term deals at this time to fill those roster spots.  Anything beyond a medium-term contract carries some risk of being a burden at the time that their young core will be ready to really try to contend.  A five-year deal for a 25-year-old (McCann) makes sense as he’ll still be young enough to be part of their plans and productive at the end of it.  A five-year deal for a 29-year-old UFA this summer probably won’t hold up as well.  They’d be wise to stick with shorter-term contracts that will be easier to move closer to their expiration.

Of course, that caveat doesn’t apply if they happen to entice one of the top free agents to join them.  In that case, you don’t say no to top talent and that player becomes a part of their current and future core.  But beyond that, playing it safe with the veterans they choose to add should be the path they choose to take.

Fill Out Farm Team

This season, Seattle didn’t have its own AHL affiliate which isn’t particularly unusual for an expansion franchise as they simply don’t have the organizational depth that more established teams do.  Instead, they teamed up with the Hurricanes, sharing their affiliate in Charlotte.  That allowed the Kraken to carry a pretty short group of contracts with only a handful of recallable players from the Checkers as the season went on.

That won’t be the case next season as Seattle will be operating the Coachella Valley Firebirds.  They certainly have plenty of work to do before the puck drops on their inaugural season in October.

At the moment, Seattle has basically the equivalent of one line signed for the Firebirds for next season (with three of those being on future deals that only start in 2022-23).  They also have goaltender Joey Daccord if they can get him through waivers in training camp.  In terms of on-ice personnel, that’s it.  Aside from those few players signed, they basically have to fill an entire team.  As a result, expect them to be very active in minor league free agency, both in terms of signing AHL free agents to AHL deals at the beginning of July and in handing out several NHL two-way deals when that market opens up near mid-July.

On top of that, they’ll need to round out their front office and coaching staff.  The Kraken added former NHL bench boss Dan Bylsma as an assistant with Charlotte and he’s a contender to be the coach in Palm Springs next season.  Francis will be building on multiple fronts this summer so expect a busy summer in Seattle.

Offseason Checklist: Arizona Coyotes

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The offseason has arrived for half of the league’s teams that aren’t playoff-bound.  It’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Arizona.

This season went more or less as expected for the Coyotes.  After blowing up their roster over the summer and further cementing their status as a team committed to a long-term rebuild, expectations were low heading into the year and they lived up to them, finishing last in the Western Conference.  It seems quite unlikely that their direction will change (beyond playing out of a college arena for next season) and their checklist reflects that as a result.

Add A Second Goalie

One of the bright spots this season was the unexpected emergence of Karel Vejmelka between the pipes.  Originally viewed as extra depth, he played his way onto the opening roster and things only got better from there.  That earned him a three-year contract extension at the trade deadline and secured part of their goalie tandem for the next few years.

The other half of that pairing remains a work in progress, however.  Ivan Prosvetov has struggled in his limited NHL duty, Josef Korenar had a particularly rough season in the minors, and waiver claim Harri Sateri had just a .866 SV% in his six appearances down the stretch.  Suffice it to say, the ideal partner for Vejmelka isn’t currently in the organization.

There are two routes the team can take to fill this spot.  They can look to add a veteran free agent which is what they did this year when they signed Carter Hutton although setting their sights a little higher this time around would make sense.  There are several veteran netminders available once again and adding one of those on a short-term contract would solve the issue in the short term and is a perfectly reasonable way to go.  But how attractive will the team be with the direction they’re headed and the fact they won’t be playing out of an NHL-sized facility for a while?

On the other hand, as a team that has shown a willingness to take on unwanted contracts, that has to be a route worth exploring as well.  There are some higher-priced starters out there with deals that their teams wouldn’t mind getting out of and it stands to reason that they could tack on some draft picks or prospects as compensation for taking the contract off their hands.  That could lead to some longer-term stability at the position with some extra future assets as well.

Chychrun Decision

Last summer, there was an expectation that defenseman Jakob Chychrun was going to be on the move but it never materialized.  Then, during the season, reports surfaced that he was available but that the asking price was quite high with those reports mentioning the price as at least three first-round elements or more.  He then suffered an ankle injury about a week and a half before the trade deadline which put an end to any thoughts he might be moved.

But now it’s the offseason when it’s easier to trade players with term remaining on their contracts and Chychrun has three years remaining on his deal with a $4.6MM AAV.  GM Bill Armstrong stated at the end of the season that a trade involving his top defenseman was something they were going to explore which will only further add fuel to the fire.

However, beyond the summer often yielding more flexibility in roster building, the same problems that existed during the season are still there now.  The asking price is almost certain to remain extremely high and while there was speculation that there were teams willing to meet it, the fact a trade didn’t occur means either that wasn’t the case or the price went even higher.

The other is that Chychrun isn’t exactly coming off a strong season.  Few Coyotes had good years in 2021-22 but the 24-year-old took a step back although he still managed to put up 21 points in 47 games.  There’s certainly a good enough track record to indicate that he can return to form but him getting back to that form in an Arizona uniform would strengthen their negotiating position.

As a result, their biggest decision of the summer is deciding Chychrun’s future.  Do they take the best offer they can get for him now or roll the dice and see if he can play his way into increased trade value?  At this point, a trade is probably the best move for everyone involved.

Crouse – Trade Or Re-Sign?

One Coyote who did have a strong season was winger Lawson Crouse.  The 2015 first-round pick had an increased role under head coach Andre Tourigny and responded with career highs in goals (20) and points (34) despite missing 17 games due to injury.  He also contributed physically with nearly 2.8 hits per game.  That’s a nice platform year heading into his first year of arbitration eligibility as a restricted free agent.

The 24-year-old still has two years of RFA eligibility remaining since he didn’t get to the 40-game mark in his second professional season in 2016-17 which stopped him from accruing a year towards the seven needed to reach UFA status.  A power forward in the prime of his career with a couple of years of team control remaining – that’s the definition of a key part of Arizona’s future plan…or a key trade chip.

The market rate in terms of salary for a core power forward is always quite pricey and it’s probable that Crouse’s camp will be looking at Josh Anderson’s contract (seven years, $5.5MM AAV) as a comparable in any long-term discussions.    Is that a price Arizona will want to pay?  It’s certainly steep given his track record but at the same time, he’s young enough to still be part of the core when they eventually emerge from their rebuild.

Or, should they cash in when his trade value is probably at its highest?  Is there a team out there willing to part with a high-quality prospect to get a young power forward?  There probably is.  While they’d be running the risk of moving him a little too early (another year like this one in 2022-23 would only increase his trade value), it’d ensure they’d get a solid return and an asset that might line up closer to their young core.

While Chychrun will dominate the discussion surrounding the Coyotes over the next little while, deciding what to do with Crouse is going to be a big part of Arizona’s offseason.

Keep Stockpiling

There will come a time when the Coyotes have too many picks and prospects; they’re already looking ahead to 2024’s draft class with some of their moves.  They’re not there yet though.  What do all rebuilding teams need to do?  Stockpile young assets.

Arizona is starting to run out of significant trade chips, especially if Chychrun and Crouse are moved.  However, they can still leverage their cap space.  We saw them take on undesirable contracts several times last summer and even got a quality piece in Shayne Gostisbehere who could be a trade chip closer to the 2023 trade deadline.  They’ve taken on contracts in the past for players on LTIR and recently did so with Bryan Little.  They can still afford to do that to add more picks and prospects and with there being some uncertainty about the level of attractiveness as a free agent with their arena and competitiveness situation, it certainly would help them fill out their roster for next season.

Eventually, some of their picks and prospects will need to be consolidated to help them take some steps forward.  Until then, when it comes to future assets, the more, the merrier.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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