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NHLPA Approves Proposed Changes To Lottery Odds

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In what has become an annual event, the NHL Players’ Association has yet again approved changes to the NHL Draft lottery odds. TSN’s Pierre LeBrun reports that the NHLPA today signed off on a new lottery set-up recently submitted by the league. It marks the third season in a row that the odds have been altered.

The percentage chance that a team is selected to pick first, second, or third, as expressed by the number of ping pong balls present in the lottery draw, is dependent on where they finish in the overall league standings. Unsurprisingly, the changes to the odds first agreed upon in the Collective Bargaining Agreement began with the Edmonton Oilers and the painful realization that they had won yet another lottery in 2015 and would move up in the draft order to select Connor McDavid as their fourth first overall pick in a six year span. In response, the league significantly boosted the odds in 2016 toward the teams finishing last winning the lottery – expecting that Edmonton would no longer be in that range – as LeBrun notes that the 30th-place team had 20% odds of picking first two years ago. After the worst team in the NHL, the Toronto Maple Leafs, retained the top pick that year and selected Auston Matthews, the league and NHLPA again agreed to lessen the odds and insert more chance (and excitement) into the lottery. LeBrun indicates that last year the league’s worst, the Colorado Avalanche, had an 18% chance of holding on to the top pick. However, in a wild turn of events, three teams outside the bottom four won the lottery and moved into the top three draft slots, the biggest shift being the Philadelphia Flyers, who narrowly missed the playoffs, picking second. So, to perhaps combat another clean sweep, the odds have again been increased for those toward the bottom

Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reports that the new odds of selecting first for the upcoming 2018 NHL Draft will be 18.5% for 31st, 13.5% for 30th, and 11.5% for 29th. With the addition of an extra non-playoff team, there is also a new distribution which in fact increases the odds for the last team to miss the playoffs, the 17th-place finisher, by a tenth of a percent to 1%. This is accomplished by lessening the odds for the middle-of-the pack lottery teams. It may not be a coincidence that the Oilers are part of that group. Nor may it be a coincidence that the current bottom three – the Buffalo Sabres, Vancouver Canucks, and Arizona Coyotes – are all teams that have been struggling for years and would certainly appreciate retaining their high picks. This yearly change in draft lottery odds seems to be very responsive to the results of each prior lottery, but that isn’t a bad thing. So long as both the league and NHLPA agree, it’s safe to assume that the changes have the best interests of competitive balance in mind.

Retired Official To Join Situation Room For Goaltender Interference Reviews

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7:30PM: The NHLPA has worked quickly to review the proposed changes. The Competition Committee announced this evening that they have approved the “NHL General Managers Recommended Change to Rule 78.7(ii) Governing Coach’s Challenges for Goaltender Interference”. The Committee, made up of members Mike Cammalleri, Ron Hainsey, Kevin Shattenkirk, Cory Schneider and Daniel Winnik, was joined by other players in making this decision. Players’ Association executive and long-time NHLer Mathieu Schneider stressed that “first and foremost, the players want consistency in the application of the rule”. The last remaining step in the process is for the recommendation to be approved by the NHL’s Board of Governors. At this rate, the rule change could be made by the end of the week.

10:30AM: The league knew something had to be done about the goaltender interference problem, and today at the GMs meetings in Florida Gary Bettman announced that a retired official will join the situation room in Toronto to determine the call on interference reviews. This announcement, as reported by several sources including Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet, comes pending approval from the Competition Committee and Board of Governors.

Though the league demonstrated that there hasn’t been considerably more challenges this season than those the last few years, the decisions have come under much greater scrutiny. Weekly there is a decision that is met with ire from fans of a certain team, and coverage was only increased when the league admitted they would be instructing their officials to call things differently after the All-Star break.

Now things seem to be taken out of the on-ice officials’ hands, as the league will make the decisions themselves—though one can suspect they will consult the game referees. Still, theoretically it should provide some more consistency to the calls at the very least. As Darren Dreger of TSN points out, the league could eventually move to the same system they have for offside reviews, in which a team receives a minor penalty if they challenge and get it wrong.

Frank Seravalli of TSN believes that the six referee supervisors will be the ones who rotate through the situation room, listing Don Koharski, Paul Devorski, Rob Shick, Mick McGeough and Don Van Massenhoven as potential options, while Greg Wyshynski of ESPN adds Bill McCreary and Director of Officiating Stephen Walkom.

Morning Notes: Player Poll, Draft Lottery, Matthews

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The NHLPA released its annual Player Poll, where it asks members to vote on a variety of things from fastest skater to best role model. Sidney Crosby’s name was understandably everywhere, leading categories like “most difficult to play against” and even getting some love in the top player of all-time.

Interestingly, the players were also asked which coach they would most like to play for and Joel Quenneville came out on top. With things deteriorating in Chicago, many have wondered whether Quenneville would be back in 2018-19 for the Blackhawks. If the player’s opinions mean anything, there is certainly still an appetite for him to be behind the bench.

  • The NHL Draft Lottery is a huge event these days, and with Rasmus Dahlin the top prize the draw will be just as exciting as ever. Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic tweets that the unofficial date that’s being considered is April 28th, which would be less than eight weeks from now. Remember, three non-playoff teams will be selected to move up in the draft, and while the worst team has the best chance, it’s still more likely that someone else takes home the first-overall pick.
  • The Toronto Maple Leafs are reeling recently, dropping four straight games and looking disjointed without their top forward on the ice. Luckily, the team welcomed Auston Matthews back to the beginning of practice today according to Kristen Shilton of TSN, though he remained in a non-contact sweater. Matthews had completed some work before practice by himself, and is getting closer to a return from the injury that he suffered against the Islanders on February 22nd.

Commissioner Notes: Goalie Interference, International Games, Expansion

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NHL commissioner Gary Bettman spoke to the media prior to tonight’s All-Star’s Skills Competition and it didn’t take long for questions to arise about the controversial goaltender interference calls that have created an uproar. As reported earlier, the all-star coaches and league executives met with the league today to discuss the issues with goaltender interference. Bettman was quick to point out that he believes that everyone is overthinking the rule and plans to send a memo to officials suggesting they ease off when looking at video, according to Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston.

“Overall, the system works,” Bettman said. “But I think we’ve gotten to the point where everyone is overlooking the review.”

The comments might suggest the league might be backing off on goaltender interference in the near future.

  • Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston tweets that Bettman announced the 2019 NHL All-Star Game will be in San Jose on Jan. 26-27. It will be the first time its been there since 1997. St. Louis Post-Dispatch’s Tom Timmermann tweeted the St. Louis Blues are bidding to host the 2020 all-star game.
  • Johnston also tweets that Bettman said that the New Jersey Devils and Edmonton Oilers will start the 2018-19 regular season in Sweden. The Winnipeg Jets and the Florida Panthers will play two regular season games against each other in Helsinki, Finland. The Devils tweeted they will also be playing in a preseason game in Switzerland.
  • TSN’s Daren Dreger tweets that Bettman said that the plan is to send two teams to China in September and continues to be a “work in progress.” Johnston adds that it’s expected the Calgary Flames and the Boston Bruins will be the two teams.
  • TSN’s Pierre LeBrun tweets that Bettman was asked if the next expansion team (Seattle — if it happens, added Bettman) would get the same favorable expansion draft rules and player pool that the Vegas Golden Knights received. Bettman said, “Yes.” Chicago Sun-Times’ Mark Lazerus tweets that Bettman added that any future expansion team would insist on the same expansion draft rules that Vegas took advantage of. ESPN’s Greg Wyshynski tweets that Bettman said the ownership group working for a Seattle expansion bid is still working on their application. A timetable and ticket drive are up to them, but likely should be completed in one or two weeks, suggests LeBrun.
  • LeBrun tweets that he talked to NHLPA’s Don Fehr, who said that a potential World Cup tournament could happen in September of 2020 or February of 2020. However, there still would have to be a lot of work to be done.
  • LeBrun tweets that when asked whether adding a 32nd team through expansion would suggest the NHL should look into expanding the number of playoff teams, Bettman said ’No.’ He likes it at 16 teams.
  • Wyshysnki tweets that Bettman wasn’t positive about a possible expansion team coming from Quebec: “We’re not currently considering an application. At the current time, we’re not focused on a team in Quebec City. That doesn’t mean we’ll never be focused [on it].”
  • Wyshysnki tweets that on the topic of the Arizona Coyotes, the commissioner added that ownership is working through possibilities to build a new arena and the strength of the club comes down to the owners’ willingness to continue that pursuit. “I wouldn’t focus on Arizona moving right now. Or anytime soon. Or ever,” said Bettman.
  • Lazerus tweets that Bettman also wasn’t as positive about NHL players joining the Olympics in 2020. “I don’t have an answer to that question.” He said the clubs and owners find Olympic participation “disruptive.”

Snapshots: Prospects, Olympics, Savard

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The NHL’s Central Scouting has released their midterm rankings for North American and International skaters, with Andrei Svechnikov and Rasmus Dahlin leading the way respectively. Dahlin is about as locked in as a prospect can be for the first-overall selection, but several others will be battling for the number two spot. Svechnikov, Filip Zadina, Adam Boqvist and Brady Tkachuk are all top options who could be in the top three selections, and should b considered blue chip pieces for whoever ends up with them.

Interestingly, players like Ryan Merkley (#21 among North American skaters) and Bode Wilde (#22) find themselves relatively far down the list despite their previous top-10 projections. Whether that has more to do with their own play slipping this season or the influx of talent throughout the draft class is unclear, but it should excite even teams in the playoff picture with the prospect of adding an impact player on defense.

  • Many of the Olympic rosters have now been released, with young players like Dahlin, Miro Heiskanen and Eeli Tolvanen dominating the headlines for Sweden and Finland. Rosters for the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia, Switzerland and host Korea are available on the IIHF website. Igor Eronko of Sport-Express reports that the Olympic Athletes from Russia squad will release their roster on Thursday, which should be one of the powerhouses of the tournament.
  • Marc Savard has officially announced his retirement, exactly seven years after his last game in the NHL. The exquisite playmaker was forced from the game due to concussion problems, but was still technically under contract through last season. His career ended in 2011 with the Bruins after 807 games, in which he registered 706 points including seasons of 97 and 96. According to Chris Lomon of the NHLPA, Savard is looking to move up the coaching ranks after spending some time behind the bench of his sons’ triple-A teams.

2018-19 Salary Cap Projected At $78-82MM

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At the board of governors meeting today, the league shared projections for next season’s salary cap. According to Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic, that number is set to fall between $78-82MM depending on how the NHLPA uses their escalators. That’s an increase from this year’s $75MM ceiling, giving teams a little extra room in the budget for free agents and contract extensions.

The cap is based on projections of Hockey Related Revenue, a number that does not (and will not) include expansion fees. Those funds are given directly to the owners, and don’t necessarily filter down to the players. Still, it means that overall numbers are up for the league through inflation and growth, and will allow teams to spend a little more next season on their players.

It doesn’t necessarily mean every team will. There are currently eight teams with more than $10MM in cap room, including the Carolina Hurricanes and Arizona Coyotes, who have a combined $50MM in space. They, and others like them, will likely be closer to the salary cap floor once again next year, even with the new ownership in Raleigh.

Amazingly, there are also clubs like the Montreal Canadiens who usually don’t have trouble spending right to the cap but currently sit with over $9MM. While some teams like Toronto, Detroit and Chicago struggle to keep their rosters under the upper limit, Montreal has decided to keep quite a bit of room—perhaps for an offseason free agent pursuit?

The increasing cap will improve player salaries, but it will also make previous deals look more and more reasonable. Even Connor McDavid’s eight-year, $100MM extension could be surpassed by several players, as the maximum contract at an $80MM cap would be $16MM per season. John Tavares, Drew Doughty, Erik Karlsson and others could all push to be the highest paid player in the league over the next few years.

Poll: Fairness In NHL’s Fines And Suspensions?

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In a season where penalties are down, there has been a surprising amount of newsworthy fines and suspensions early on in 2017-18. The unfortunate thing for the NHL is the only common theme between these instances of league punishment seem to be inconsistency and a lack of sense.

Three players – Steven Stamkos, Kevin Hayes, and most recently Matt Dumba – have been fined $5,000 apiece this season for water squirting. It’s not exactly a lethal offense, but is probably worthy of a minor infraction. Except, Alex Killorn received the same $5,000 fine in the same game as Stamkos’ and Hayes’ water fight for viciously jabbing Hayes until he received a slashing penalty. J.T. Brown and Steven Kampfer then riled up the benches with a long, intense fight and received no additional penalty minutes outside their matching majors and no fines. In a separate instance the other night, Patrick Kane also received a $5,000 fine. His offense: this two-handed swinging slash on Nick Ritchie which could have been much worse had it landed cleanly.

The curious thing about all of these fines is that they are the maximum under the NHL CBA. This came up earlier in the season as well, when Robert Bortuzzo’s received the max fine of just over $3,000 for pinning down and repeatedly cross-checking Brock Nelson. So in summary, water squirting has been a fine-able offense three times this season, and for the same maximum amount as slashing and more than the maximum amount for cross-checking.

Then, there are suspensions. The ten-game ban for perennial bad guy Radko Gudas was well-earned, while the ten-game suspension for leaving the bench handed out to Luke Witkowski is a tried and true policy. Yet, Witkowski was responding to this jab from Matthew Tkachuk which more or less also happened off the ice. For that offense, Tkachuk received only a one-game suspension. As minor a “spear” as it might have been, Tkachuk still made contact with a player off the ice, but the NHL thought Witkowski stepping back on the ice to have words with Tkachuk was ten times worse? Tkachuk was back in the spotlight the other night, drawing a four-game suspension for Gabriel Landeskog, who NHL Player Safety even acknowledged was not intending to hurt Tkachuk, so much as get him away from the puck.

On it’s face, the NHL’s fines and suspensions – a product of both the league and NHLPA – seem inconsistent at best. But what say you? Do you think these are isolated incidents? Or a pattern of inequitable punishment?

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Snapshots: Jagr, Iginla, Tatar

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The Prime Time Sports Management Conference, which was held in Toronto the past two days, featured several big names in the world of hockey including Commissioner Gary Bettman, IIHF President Rene Fasel, and of course, Calgary Flames President Brian Burke. With such a wealth of hockey knowledge and experience in one room, the interesting opinions and stories were constantly flowing. Yet, two tales stood out above the rest:

  • Burke, unsurprisingly, was the author of one of them. Burke told the crowd that Jaromir Jagr and Jarome Iginla, two future Hall of Famers who seemingly spent the summer with little attention paid to their free agent statuses, were in facts targets of the Flames all summer long. As we now know, Jagr was the end choice, as the 45-year-old signed on in Calgary in early October. Burke stated that the team evaluated and monitored both storied veterans throughout the off-season, waiting to see how things played out. Burke stated that, in the end, the team felt that Jagr had a much stronger 2016-17 season and brought a “charisma” to the team that they desired. It is no surprise that the team considered long-time captain Iginla, but after a difficult campaign where he looked lifeless at times, no one can blame the Flames for instead going with the ageless Jagr. In eight games thus far, Jagr already has a goal and four assists, as well as a +5 rating in Calgary.
  • The second intriguing story came from player agent Ritch Winter through sources at the NHL Players’ Association. It seems as though the current contract between forward Tomas Tatar and the Detroit Red Wings came much closer to not getting done than even the arbitration hearing time line indicated. The two sides went to salary arbitration this summer and were one of only a handful of cases to actually go to hearing. Yet, the two sides struck a deal prior to the arbitrator’s award – a four-year, $21.2MM bargain that even includes a no-trade clause beginning next season. Well, according to Winter, the fax from the arbitrator with his binding one-year decision came in to the NHLPA office mere minutes after the contract was signed. A few minutes earlier and any late agreement between the two sides would have been rendered null and void. It would come as no surprise if the Red Wings wish it had. Detroit filed at $4.1MM in arbitration, while Tatar’s side countered with $5.3MM. The eventual contract holds a $5.3MM AAV, meaning anything but an absolute finding for Tatar by the arbitrator would have resulted in a lesser cap hit than what the Wings are paying now. And what of the future? Yes, the long term deal keeps Tatar in Detroit longer, but with seven points in 18 games, the soon-to-be-27-year-old is on pace for the worst full season of his NHL career. The Red Wings may regret their long-term commitment and knowing they were only minutes ahead of a disqualifying decision only adds to the sting.

Gary Bettman Speaks On Olympics, CBA

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NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman took the stage today in Toronto at the PrimeTime Sports Management conference, and was asked a multitude of questions regarding the upcoming 2018 Olympic Games and the possibility of expansion in the future. Emily Kaplan of ESPN was there and reported on the highlights, including one particularly chilling Olympic answer.

One: [IOC President] Thomas Bach said if you don’t go to Korea, you can’t come to Beijing. Well, OK. Thank you. The second is, if the Winter Olympics comes back to North America, I’m not saying we’d go, but it’s a different equation.

Gary BettmanThe mention of Beijing of course refers to the 2022 Olympics set to be held in China, a Games that there is no guarantee the NHL will return for. There is clearly a desire from the players to go to the international tournament, as stars from Alex Ovechkin to Connor McDavid to Drew Doughty have all expressed their disappointment this year. Not every player gets many chances to represent his country at a tournament as highly-regarded as the Olympics, but perhaps the NHL is trying to change that. Bettman brought up the World Cup, a NHL-NHLPA owned event that had a so-so reception from the hockey world last fall. The league wants to hold that tournament every four years, which would essentially replace the Olympics in some sense.

It is interesting that Bettman mentioned the North American factor, as just today Calgary mayor Naheed Nenshi spoke to reporters including Donna Spencer of the Canadian Press about the city’s potential 2026 bid.

It’s council’s choice, it’s Calgary’s choice, but if we choose to bid, we’ll win. The question is, is it right for Calgary right now? If it’s right for Calgary, then we will go all guns in. I think that we will have an incredibly powerful bid and I think we’ll win.

The return of the Winter Olympics to Canadian soil would surely come with public outcry for the league to return, and Bettman has obviously already had discussions about that exact scenario. There is by no means a guarantee that Calgary submits a bid (in fact, today’s comments may lean towards them abandoning the project) but it is nice to hear that the league admits it would be a different situation should they come back to North America.

Interestingly, the current President of the IIHF Rene Fasel also announced that he will retire from his position in 2020 when his term is up. While there is no indication that would change anything between them, the IOC and the NHL, it could spark at least some more dialogue on how to get the best players in the world back competing.

Much of the Olympic and World Cup talk though revolves around what will happen in 2019 when both the NHL and NHLPA have opt-outs from the current CBA. That would cancel the agreement in 2020, meaning a possible work stoppage is again on the horizon. Bettman talked about how he hates work stoppages, but would do whatever is needed to secure a solid future for the game. With a dispute over escrow becoming the main talking point between the two sides, the next two years should be filled with hard-nosed negotiations and media mud-slinging. For fans of a sport that’s seen a season and a half already lost to work stoppages in the last 15 years, the possibility of another one is a crippling thought.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Vadim Shipachyov Retirement Official

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According to Steve Carp of the Las Vegas Review-Journal, Vadim Shipachyov’s deal with the NHL is official. After a negotiation between the NHL and NHLPA, Shipachyov will retire from the league and pay back almost all of his $2MM signing bonus. He’ll move to the voluntary retirement list and his full contract will be cleared from the Golden Knights salary cap. His NHL rights will be retained by Vegas until he turns 35, but will now be allowed to seek out a new contract in the KHL.

Vadim ShipachyovThe two sides didn’t seek a mutual termination, because Shipachyov would have first needed to pass through waivers and then could have technically been signed by another team in the league. Obviously, the Golden Knights didn’t want to lose the asset to another team for nothing, so a different agreement was made. Like Ilya Kovalchuk, Shipachyov’s retirement will keep him out of the NHL for at least five years though it’s more likely that he’ll never return. After three games and a single goal, the $9MM experiment is over. Interestingly, Vegas GM George McPhee admitted today that they did have a deal in place for Shipachyov to go somewhere else in the NHL, but the player didn’t want that. Shipachyov instead wished to just return to the KHL.

Whatever you think of how this situation was handled, at least Shipachyov can now return home to a league where he wants to play. He obviously didn’t want to suit up any longer in the AHL, and the Golden Knights clearly no longer had him in their top-6 plans up front. Incredibly though, he’ll actually go down with some impressive small-sample stats. Shipachyov scored just the lone goal, but attempted eight shots towards the net and actually won nine of 12 of the 21 draws he took. He’ll finish his three-game NHL career with positive possession stats and at 57% in the circle. Fans will be left wondering if that impact could have been carried out for the entire season, or if he wasn’t ever going to fit in perfectly with the North American game.

It wouldn’t be surprising to see him quickly sign with SKA St. Petersburg again, the team he helped to a Gagarin Cup victory last season. SKA is off to an incredible 28-1 record this season, led by Kovalchuk and Nikita Gusev with 36 points each. Gusev is a name Vegas fans should remember, as his NHL rights are also owned by the Golden Knights. They were acquired as part of the trade from Tampa Bay to get the Golden Knights to select Jason Garrison in the expansion draft, and will be a big story going forward. Gusev is just 25-years old, but has now watched his teammate and countryman go through a trying experience with the expansion team.

Gusev’s KHL contract isn’t up until April 2019, but there was some hope that he would terminate it early in order to jump to the NHL. A seventh-round pick because of the fear he would stay in Russia, Gusev is obviously talented enough to play in the NHL. Last season he scored 94 points in 75 games for SKA, and dominated the World Championships with 14 points in 10 games including a tournament-leading seven goals. You have to wonder how the Shipachyov situation will affect Gusev’s decision down the line.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

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