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Poll: NHL’s “Thanksgiving Trend” Revisited

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Fans of the NHL are sure to be familiar with the deeper meaning that American Thanksgiving holds each season. With unrelenting consistency, the NHL’s standings on the final Thursday of November have had great predictive ability when compared to the final regular season standings. In fact, over the past seven years the Thanksgiving standings have been about 75% accurate at forecasting eventual playoff teams, predicting 12 of 16 spots on average. Even though American Thanksgiving only rolls around less than two months into the season, three out of four teams in a playoff spot at that time will have retained their postseason berth when the season ends.

The 2019-20 season of course did not have a standard postseason, but if it had then the Thanksgiving trend would have proved even more prophetic in a shortened campaign. Last year, in which teams were limited to between 68 and 71 games apiece prior to the early termination of the regular season, the Thanksgiving standings would have predicted 13 of 16 playoff teams in the standard format. Of the three teams that would have slid out of the postseason, the Florida Panthers trailed the Toronto Maple Leafs by .014 points percentage in the Atlantic Division and the Winnipeg Jets missed out by a measly .001 points percentage behind the Calgary Flames as the final Western Conference wild card. The Thanksgiving standings were that close to predicting 15 of 16 playoff teams in the shortened season, with the unexpected slow start for the Vegas Golden Knights and hot start for the Arizona Coyotes being the other unsurprising course correction.

But how does this trend impact a season that didn’t even begin until well after American Thanksgiving? Based on total games played by Thanksgiving over the past few seasons, Thanksgiving represents about the 30% progress through the NHL season. In the current 56-game season, that comes out to about the 17-game mark. Although postponements and rescheduling have created a wide discrepancy in games played among teams this year, the league as a whole passed that 17-game average on Saturday: Happy Thanksgiving. Admittedly, the 2020-21 campaign does have a different playoff model as well, one that is somewhat stricter than the last few years without the fallback of a wildcard spot for a team on the fifth-place fringe in their division. Yet, it is still a 16-team postseason and the Thanksgiving trend should hold. Using points percentage to rank the standings (the stat may end up determining playoff position for a second consecutive season anyhow) and adjusting for the season’s makeshift divisions, here is the current “Thanksgiving” outlook:

North Division                                                             East Division

Toronto Maple Leafs (.789)                                    Boston Bruins (.733)
Montreal Canadiens (.625)                                     Philadelphia Flyers (.679)
Winnipeg Jets (.618)                                                 Washington Capitals (.594)
Edmonton Oilers (.600)                                          Pittsburgh Penguins (.594)____
Calgary Flames (.472)                                                        New Jersey Devils (.583)
Vancouver Canucks (.405)                                                New York Islanders (.559)
Ottawa Senators (.237)                                                      New York Rangers (.469)
                                                                                                Buffalo Sabres (.429)

West Division                                                                Central Division

Vegas Golden Knights (.700)                                   Carolina Hurricanes (.781)
Colorado Avalanche (.679)                                       Florida Panthers (.750)
St. Louis Blues (.611)                                                  Tampa Bay Lightning (.700)
Minnesota Wild (.571)                                                Dallas Stars (.583)                    
Los Angeles Kings (.531)                                                    Chicago Blackhawks (.579)
Arizona Coyotes (.500)                                                       Columbus Blue Jackets (.526)
San Jose Sharks (.500)                                                       Nashville Predators (.412)
Anaheim Ducks (.417)                                                         Detroit Red Wings (.325)

Now this begs the question, especially seeing how accurate the Thanksgiving standings were in last year’s shortened season but also accounting for the many disruptions for a number of teams early this season, who is the trend currently overlooking? Which teams currently outside the playoff picture, if any, do you think will make the postseason when all is said and done later this season? Use the comments section below as well to discuss which teams may fall out of the postseason and whether you feel the Thanksgiving trend will apply this season.

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Taxi Squad Shuffle: 02/21/21

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As the NHL prepares for another day at Lake Tahoe – one that hopes to run smoothly after Saturday’s debacle – there are also three other games on the Sunday slate. Roster transactions continue to come at a torrid pace this season and today should be no different with a number of teams in action. Keep up with all of the moves right here:

Central Division

  • The Detroit Red Wings have returned a trio of players to the taxi squad. The team announced that veteran defensemen Alex Biega and the recently-waived Danny DeKeyser, as well as rookie forward Mathias Brome, have all been reassigned. After back-to-back games, Detroit is off until Tuesday.
  • Matiss Kivlenieks is on his way back to Columbus after a brief stint in the minors. The Blue Jackets announced that the goaltender has been recalled from the AHL’s Cleveland Monsters to join the taxi squad. While the team may give Kivlenieks spot starts in Cleveland from time to time to keep him fresh, he looks to be locked in to that No. 3 taxi squad role for the franchise this season.
  • The Nashville Predators announced they have reassigned forward Eeli Tolvanen to the squad. The 21-year-old has appeared in eight games with the Predators this season.

East Division

  • The New Jersey Devils have swapped a pair of forwards, sending Yegor Sharangovich to the taxi squad while calling up Mikhail Maltsev as his replacement. Although they have been used differently so far this season, both rookies have been effective in the Devils lineup. However, after a hot start Sharangovich has cooled off while Maltsev has performed in his more recent showings. According to the AHL’s Binghamton Devils, New Jersey has also reassigned forward Nick Merkley from the taxi squad to the minors. Merkley has actually played well in the NHL so far this season, recording three points in five games with the Devils.
  • With the losses of Jake McCabe and William Borgen to injuries, the Buffalo Sabres have promoted two players from the Rochester Americans to the taxi squad. The team announced that Jacob Bryson and Casey Fitzgerald will move up and fill the defensive depth void that the team has dealt with over the last few days.

North Division

  • The Edmonton Oilers announced they have recalled defenseman Theodor Lennstrom from the Bakersfield Condors of the AHL and moved him to the taxi squad. The move was required with the injury to defenseman Slater Koekkoek. Lennstrom will need time to quarantine with Bakersfield being in the U.S., requiring the player to cross the border.
  • Ryan Pike of FlamesNation reports that the Calgary Flames have made a salary cap move, sending defenseman Oliver Kylington to the taxi squad and thereby filling up their taxi-squad roster. The 23-year-old has yet to appear in a game for the Flames this season.
  • The Ottawa Senators announced they have recalled a number of players from the taxi squad for Sunday’s game, including goaltender Joey Daccord, defenseman Braydon Coburn and forward Micheal Haley. The team also assigned forward Artem Anisimov to the taxi squad to make room for them and also moved Logan Shaw from the Belleville Senators of the AHL to the taxi squad.

West Division

  • The Minnesota Wild have moved a pair of young players back to the minors. The team announced that defenseman Calen Addison and goalie Dereck Baribeau have been reassigned to AHL Iowa. Addison, one of Minnesota’s top prospects, logged over 18 minutes of ice time on average through his first three NHL games.
  • The Arizona Coyotes announced they have swapped several players from the Tucson Roadrunners of the AHL and the taxi squad. The team has assigned forwards Frederik Gauthier and Kyle Capobianco from the Tucson to the taxi squad. The Coyotes also assigned forwards Hudson Fasching and Michael Chaput to Tucson to replace them. Capobianco has appeared in two games for Arizona this season.
  • The San Jose Sharks announced they have reassigned forward Maxim Letunov and goaltender Josef Korenar to the San Barracuda of the AHL. Neither player has appeared in a Sharks game this season.

Snapshots: Rescheduling, Avalanche, Wild, Thompson

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In a season that has been disrupted by several COVID-19 outbreaks and historically-bad weather in Texas, the NHL schedule maker has been forced to constantly snip and edit things to fit in all 56 games. Today, the league announced that tomorrow’s game between the Chicago Blackhawks and Carolina Hurricanes will be postponed to another date, with the Hurricanes taking on Tampa Bay Saturday night instead. The Lightning and Hurricanes were already set to start a three-game series on Monday, meaning they’ll now face each other in four consecutive games. The Blackhawks-Hurricanes game? It doesn’t have a date yet.

Some more updates from around the league:

  • The Colorado Avalanche have almost everyone available for tomorrow’s outdoor game at Lake Tahoe, including captain Gabriel Landeskog and defenseman Samuel Girard, who were recently on the COVID Protocol Related Absences list. That doesn’t necessarily mean Girard, who was still on the list as of yesterday, will play but he is eligible to. According to Dan Rosen of NHL.com, Cale Makar is still a game-time decision as he continues to deal with an upper-body injury.
  • The Minnesota Wild also welcomed back several familiar faces to practice today, now that the team is down to just Andrew Hammond on the COVID Protocol list. Michael Russo of The Athletic reports that Dakota Mermis, Luke Johnson and Kyle Rau have all been sent to the taxi squad to make room for the returning players, though Calen Addison will currently stay on the active roster.
  • Nate Thompson has been activated from injured reserve by the Winnipeg Jets and he is expected to be in the lineup tonight when the team faces off against the Vancouver Canucks. Thompson has played just four games for the Jets this season after signing a one-year, $750K deal in October. The veteran forward is expected to take the spot of Kristian Vesalainen, who is still looking for his first NHL goal.

COVID Protocol Related Absences: 02/15/21

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Each day, the NHL will publicly release the list of players that are unavailable to their respective teams due to being in COVID-19 Protocol. While the league is still waiting for a report from the Edmonton Oilers, here are today’s results for the other 30 teams:

Buffalo – Dylan Cozens, Curtis Lazar, Jake McCabe, Casey Mittelstadt, Brandon Montour, Rasmus Ristolainen
Colorado –  Samuel Girard, Tyson Jost, Gabriel Landeskog, Hunter Miska*
Edmonton – TBA
Los Angeles – Andreas Athanasiou
Minnesota –  Jonas Brodin, Brad Hunt, Victor Rask, Carson Soucy, Cam Talbot
New Jersey – Nikita Gusev, Nico Hischier, Dmitry Kulikov, Travis Zajac
NY Rangers – Filip Chytil
Ottawa – Ryan Dzingel
Philadelphia – Justin Braun, Morgan Frost, Claude Giroux, Travis Konecny, Scott Laughton, Oskar Lindblom, Jakub Voracek
Vegas – Tomas Nosek

As a reminder, inclusion on this list does not mean that a player has tested positive for Coronavirus or even that they have been confirmed as a close contact to another positive person. Included in the NHL’s list of possible reasons for someone being on the list is are the following:

(1) an initial positive test which remains unconfirmed until confirmatory testing is completed pursuant to the Positive Test Protocol; (2) mandated isolation for symptomatic individuals pursuant to the Positive Test Protocol; (3) required quarantine as a high-risk close contact in accordance with the Positive Test Protocol; (4) isolation based on a confirmed positive test result and/or; (5) quarantine for travel or other reasons as outlined in the COVID-19 Protocol

Players removed today: John Hayden, Arizona Coyotes; Tobias Rieder, Buffalo Sabres; Nick Bonino, Ian Cole, Nico Sturm, Minnesota Wild; Nathan Bastian, New Jersey Devils

Many of today’s CPRA removals were revealed long before the list was published this afternoon. Hayden was in the lineup for Coyotes for their matinee match-up with the Blues, while Bastian joined the Devils in their return to practice this morning and Rieder did the same with the Sabres. Interestingly, McCabe and Montour were also participants in Buffalo practice today, likely indicating that they will come off the list tomorrow. New Jersey’s Gusev and Kulikov skated separately with coaches after practice today, possibly implying that they too will be off the list soon.

After being late to report yesterday, the Colorado Avalanche are responsible for the only CPRA addition today in young goaltender Miska. Otherwise, this is another positive day as the NHL’s COVID numbers continue to trend strongly in the right direction. With the difficult situations in Buffalo, Minnesota, and New Jersey looking like they will soon be resolved, some progress in Philadelphia is seemingly the only thing stopping the league moving on from their recent rash of postponements and lengthy CRPA lists.

 

COVID Protocol Related Absences: 02/14/21

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Each day, the NHL will publicly release the list of players that are unavailable to their respective teams due to being in COVID-19 Protocol. The league is still awaiting updated lists from the Sabres and Avalanche, but the following are the complete results from the other 29 teams:

Arizona – John Hayden
Buffalo – Dylan Cozens, Curtis Lazar, Jake McCabe, Casey Mittelstadt, Brandon Montour, Tobias Rieder, Rasmus Ristolainen
Colorado –  Samuel Girard, Tyson Jost, Gabriel Landeskog
Los Angeles – Andreas Athanasiou
Minnesota –  Nick Bonino, Jonas Brodin, Ian Cole, Brad Hunt, Victor Rask, Carson Soucy, Nico Sturm, Cam Talbot
New Jersey – Nathan Bastian, Nikita Gusev, Nico Hischier, Dmitry Kulikov, Travis Zajac
NY Rangers – Filip Chytil
Ottawa – Ryan Dzingel*
Philadelphia – Justin Braun, Morgan Frost, Claude Giroux, Scott Laughton, Oskar Lindblom, Jakub Voracek, Travis Konecny*
Vegas – Tomas Nosek

As a reminder, inclusion on this list does not mean that a player has tested positive for Coronavirus or even that they have been confirmed as a close contact to another positive person. Included in the NHL’s list of possible reasons for someone being on the list is are the following:

(1) an initial positive test which remains unconfirmed until confirmatory testing is completed pursuant to the Positive Test Protocol; (2) mandated isolation for symptomatic individuals pursuant to the Positive Test Protocol; (3) required quarantine as a high-risk close contact in accordance with the Positive Test Protocol; (4) isolation based on a confirmed positive test result and/or; (5) quarantine for travel or other reasons as outlined in the COVID-19 Protocol

Players removed today: Rasmus Dahlin, Buffalo Sabres; Calvin Pickard, Detroit Red Wings; Blake Lizotte, Los Angeles Kings; Jesper Bratt, Connor Carrick, Eric Comrie, Jack Hughes, Damon Severson, Ty Smith, Matt Tennyson, Sami Vatanen, New Jersey Devils; Travis Sanheim, Philadelphia Flyers; Steven Stamkos, Tampa Bay Lightning

It’s another strong net positive day for the CPRA. The only true addition to the list comes in the form of Flyers forward Konecny. The other addition, Dzingel, has entered the required quarantine period for any player crossing into Canada after he was dealt to Ottawa by Carolina on Saturday, but by all accounts has not qualified for any other reason. Meanwhile, the Red Wings and Lightning wipe the slate clean while the Devils take a major step forward with eight players coming off the list. Joining Dahlin back at Sabres practice today was also head coach Ralph Krueger, a welcome sight after his own bout with Coronavirus.

While the situations in Buffalo and Colorado remain undetermined at this point, the Devils appear to be on the mend and Minnesota Wild head coach Dean Evason stated that he expects some of his players to begin coming off the list soon as well. If the situation in Philadelphia can be sorted out – especially with their Lake Tahoe game coming up next weekend – the NHL could be looking at a refreshingly short CPRA by this time next week.

 

Snapshots: Tatar, Dumba, Devils, Murphy, Hamonic

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The Montreal Canadiens will be without Tomas Tatar Saturday against the Toronto Maple Leafs, who is a healthy scratch, according to Sportsnet’s Eric Engels. The move made by head coach Claude Julien is believed to be a message sent to both Tatar and the team after Montreal has lost three of their last four games.

Tatar, despite having four goals and eight points in 14 games, has been adequate on the ice, but not as good as last season when he posted 22 goals and 61 points in 68 games. Engels believes that the message is meant just as much to the team as Tatar is one of the most popular players in the locker room.

The Philadelphia Flyers attempted a similar benching of leading scorer Travis Konecny on Jan. 30. Unfortunately, he has not scored a point since then.

  • Corey Masisak of The Athletic reports that a New Jersey Devils team spokesman said the team will be allowed to return to practice on Monday. That will be the first time the team has been allowed on the ice since the game at Buffalo on Jan. 31. The team is currently scheduled to play on Tuesday at the New York Rangers.
  • The Minnesota Wild got even more good news when they learned that defenseman Matt Dumba should be in the lineup on Tuesday when they begin playing once again after suffering what looked to be a severe ankle injury, according to Star Tribune’s Sarah McLellan. Dumba got tangled up with teammate Jordan Greenway and suffered an awkward fall on Jan. 30, but the blueliner said that he’s feeling good and has no issues regarding the injury. The 26-year-old Dumba is looking solid this season, already with three goals in just nine games this season. Teammate Mats Zuccarello is also getting closer to a return. The veteran forward practiced Friday in a non-contact jersey.
  • The Chicago Blackhawks have placed defenseman Connor Murphy on injured reserve, retroactive to Feb. 9, according to NHL.com’s Brandon Cain. The blueliner was suffered a right hip injury in that game and is expected to miss up to two weeks. Murphy has been playing well for Chicago with two goals and five points in 13 games, while averaging 22:45 of ATOI.
  • The Vancouver Canucks could be getting a boost back to their defense as head coach Travis Green reported that defenseman Travis Hamonic is close to returning to the team. The 30-year-old blueliner remains on long-term injured reserve with an upper-body injury. He has only appeared in five games with the Canucks this year with two assists, but could be a big addition if he returns soon.

COVID Protocol Related Absences: 02/13/21

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Each day, the NHL will publicly release the list of players that are unavailable to their respective teams due to being in COVID-19 protocol. On a positive note, no new players have been put on the list, but quite a few have been removed from the list. The Los Angeles Kings list is being put together now, but there has been a report from John Hoven that both Blake Lizotte and Andreas Athanasiou are both off the list:

Arizona – John Hayden
Buffalo – Dylan Cozens, Rasmus Dahlin, Curtis Lazar, Jake McCabe, Casey Mittelstadt, Brandon Montour, Tobias Rieder, Rasmus Ristolainen
Colorado –  Samuel Girard, Tyson Jost, Gabriel Landeskog
Detroit – Calvin Pickard
Los Angeles – TBA
Minnesota –  Nick Bonino, Jonas Brodin, Ian Cole, Brad Hunt, Victor Rask, Carson Soucy, Nico Sturm, Cam Talbot
New Jersey – Nathan Bastian, Jesper Bratt, Connor Carrick, Eric Comrie, Nikita Gusev, Nico Hischier, Jack Hughes, Dmitry Kulikov, Damon Severson, Ty Smith, Matt Tennyson, Sami Vatanen, Travis Zajac
NY Rangers – Filip Chytil
Philadelphia – Justin Braun, Morgan Frost, Claude Giroux, Travis Sanheim, Jakub Voracek, Scott Laughton, Oskar Lindblom*
Tampa Bay – Steven Stamkos
Vegas – Tomas Nosek

As a reminder, inclusion on this list does not mean that a player has tested positive for Coronavirus or even that they have been confirmed as a close contact to another positive person. Included in the NHL’s list of possible reasons for someone being on the list is are the following:

(1) an initial positive test which remains unconfirmed until confirmatory testing is completed pursuant to the Positive Test Protocol; (2) mandated isolation for symptomatic individuals pursuant to the Positive Test Protocol; (3) required quarantine as a high-risk close contact in accordance with the Positive Test Protocol; (4) isolation based on a confirmed positive test result and/or; (5) quarantine for travel or other reasons as outlined in the COVID-19 Protocol

Players removed today: Taylor Hall (Sabres), Ryan Carpenter (Chicago), Andreas Johnsson (Devils), Janne Kuokkanen (Devils), Michael McLeod (Devils), Kyle Palmieri (Devils), Pavel Zacha (Devils); Anthony Duclair (Panthers), Jesse Puljujarvi (Oilers), , Marcus Johansson (Wild), Jared Spurgeon (Wild), Joel Eriksson Ek (Wild), Nick Bjugstad (Wild)

Four Minnesota Wild Players Return From COVID Protocol List

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The Minnesota Wild were cleared a couple days ago to return to team activities and look ready to resume their season on Tuesday against Los Angeles. Now the team announced that it has gotten back four of its players off the COVID protocol list, including forwards Nick Bjugstad, Joel Eriksson Ek and Marcus Johansson as well as defenseman Jared Spurgeon.

All four players were on the list since Feb. 3. The team had 13 players on the list as of two days ago, so the team needed some of them back soon if they want to have a competitive team. The Wild last played on Feb. 2, falling to Colorado in a 2-1 loss.

Eriksson Ek finally looks to have turned a corner in his fourth full season with the Wild. He posted career highs a year go with eight goals and 29 points, but it looks like he’s figured things out with five goals and nine points in nine games so far this year. Bjugstad, acquired for a conditional seventh-round pick at a bargain rate from Pittsburgh during the offseason, has found a full-time role with the team, playing in 11 games and scoring two goals and three points in a bottom-six role. Johansson, also acquired this offseason in a swap with Buffalo for Eric Staal, has two goals and three points in nine games.

The biggest return will be the team’s captain in Spurgeon. who is averaging 22:13 of ATOI this season and will be key heading up the team’s blueline. Of course, Spurgeon and Johansson are still dealing with upper-body injuries that could keep them out of the lineup for a few days still, according to Sarah McLellan of the Star Tribune.

Injury Notes: Tarasenko, Zuccarello, Werenski

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Vladimir Tarasenko was back on the ice with his teammates today when the St. Louis Blues hit the ice in Arizona, a great sign as he continues to recover from his latest shoulder surgery. On February 3, Blues GM Doug Armstrong told reporters that his Russian sniper was still weeks away, but things were promising. Seeing him in a regular practice jersey with his teammates indicates that his return isn’t as far away as it once seemed.

When he is healthy enough to return, the question will be how exactly the Blues fit him in. The team is currently more than $7MM into their long-term injured reserve relief and though Alex Steen’s $5.75MM cap hit covers a lot of that, adding Tarasenko back onto the books won’t be easy. That has led to the trade chatter surrounding Vince Dunn increasing again, this time with some additional cap-clearing motivation.

  • Speaking of West Division forwards that are coming back from offseason surgery, the Minnesota Wild had Mats Zuccarello back at practice for the first time today, according to Michael Russo of The Athletic. Zuccarello is only in the second season of a five-year, $30MM contract for the Wild, meaning his return to form would be a crucial boost for a team fighting to make the postseason. At his best, Zuccarello has been a top playmaking winger that can elevate the performance of his linemates. Whether the 33-year-old can get back to that level is not at all clear.
  • Zach Werenski is expected to be back in the lineup on Saturday against the Chicago Blackhawks, or at least that is what Columbus Blue Jackets head coach John Tortorella implied to reporters today, including Aaron Portzline of The Athletic. Werenski has missed the last three games with a lower-body injury and is off to a rather slow start this season with just four points in 12 games. After scoring 20 goals and 41 points in just 63 games last season, big things were expected of the fifth-year defenseman.

NHL Postpones Seven More Games

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With the COVID situations in Buffalo, New Jersey, and Minnesota still not contained, the NHL has postponed several more games. Two additional Sabres games (February 11, 13 vs WSH), three additional Devils games (February 11, 13 vs PHI; 15 vs BOS), and two additional Wild games (February 11 vs STL; 13 vs LAK) have been postponed. The decision on when each team will resume practicing and playing is still to come in the next few days.

The Sabres added Rasmus Dahlin to the COVID Protocol Related Absences list late last night, giving them nine players (plus their head coach) ruled out. John Vogl of The Athletic also reports that two linesmen that worked games between the Devils and Sabres at the end of last month have also entered the league’s protocol. In all, Vogl notes, 24 of the players who skated in those two games—January 30 and 31—have ended up on the CPRA list.

In Minnesota, GM Bill Guerin told Michael Russo of The Athletic that several other players are expected to hit the CPRA list in the coming days as the virus continues “creeping its way through the team.” One of the Minnesota players told Russo that “he feels like he has been hit by a bus and his symptoms have run the gamut.”

As of yesterday, the Devils had 16 players in the COVID protocol. They have not played since that January 31 game against the Sabres and will now be off through at least next Monday. The team’s nine games played is tied for the fewest in the league.

The full table of postponements continues to grow at an alarming rate:

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