Latest On Erik Karlsson Trade Rumors
After Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet threw a match into the puddle of gasoline that is an Erik Karlsson trade rumor yesterday, speculation has ran wild about where the Ottawa Senators captain will start the season. Friedman was on NHL Network recently, and reiterated that he believes the Senators are ready to move on.
A few years ago Dany Heatley showed up on the first day of camp with the Senators, and the Senators were like “can we fix this?” and they realized they couldn’t. They made the [Heatley] trade right away with San Jose. I think they’ve just decided they don’t want to carry [the Karlsson situation] into the season if they can avoid it.
Karlsson has been in the news for some time, given that the Senators haven’t been able to reach an extension with their superstar defenseman. The 28-year old is scheduled to hit unrestricted free agency in the summer of 2019, leave the team with little choice but to trade him for future assets if he’s not willing to sign long-term with the club. There had been talk about Karlsson potentially discussing an extension with interested teams, which would obviously increase the value of the return for the Senators, but now there may be a hitch in those talks. Andy Strickland of Fox Sports Midwest tweets that Karlsson does not want to sign an extension with a Canadian team, which could potentially take teams like the Vancouver Canucks—who were mentioned by Friedman yesterday, but quickly denied their involvement—out of the running.
There’s no guarantee that Karlsson wants to sign an extension with anyone at present, given that he could be the big fish on the open market next summer. Now that Drew Doughty, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Ryan Ellis and Ryan McDonagh have all signed long-term deals, Karlsson projects to be the one real star defenseman available in free agency. At that point he could essentially choose his destination, as one would have to believe that almost the entire league would express some interest in him as a UFA.
For now, we’ll have to wait and see who rises as the front runner for a Karlsson trade and whether a Canadian team can wiggle their way into extension talks. The star defenseman has always spoken highly of his love for the city of Ottawa, but it doesn’t appear at this point like he’ll be spending the next portion of his career there.
Plenty Of Work Still Left To Do In Winnipeg
The Winnipeg Jets are one of the strongest and deepest teams in the NHL. They reached the Western Conference Finals last season on the back of a strong goaltender in Connor Hellebuyck, a never-ending offensive attack, and a diverse and talented blue line. This summer they had quite a bit of work to do to keep that group together, and have already dealt with several issues.
Hellebuyck was signed to a six-year contract, guaranteeing he’ll be in Winnipeg through his prime years, while Adam Lowry and Tucker Poolman signed multi-year deals to maintain their roles as depth players in the NHL. Jacob Trouba reached a one-year deal through the arbitration process, and crept one year closer to unrestricted free agency, and several other fringe pieces re-upped for one-year deals. Just yesterday, Nicolas Kerdiles inked his two-way deal yesterday, but unfortunately, that doesn’t cover nearly all the work the team still has to do.
First on the to-do list has to be a new deal for Josh Morrissey, who has established himself as a key left-handed counterpart to the big names on the right side for the Jets defense corps. With Toby Enstrom leaving for greener pastures, Morrissey will be asked to take on even more responsibility going forward and could demand a long-term deal. The Jets have Poolman, Dustin Byfuglien and Dmitry Kulikov signed past 2018-19, and need to get some more certainty on the blue line as they continue their negotiations with Trouba and fellow 2019 UFA Tyler Myers. For his part, Morrissey believes that a contract will get done before the start of the season. He told Jason Bell of the Winnipeg Free Press as much in a recent interview:
Everyone’s going to have their own opinions and that’s fine, but from my standpoint as a player, my agent and from our conversations with the team, everything’s been going great. Everyone’s confident it will be handled and done, definitely in time for the season.
It’s in Myers, Trouba and captain Blake Wheeler that the next group of big decisions lie. All three are scheduled for unrestricted free agency next summer, and though an extension can’t be signed with Trouba until January, the other two are potential extension candidates at any point. The team certainly doesn’t want to watch two of their most valuable players walk out the door in less than a year, especially as they just start their competitive window.
Then, there is the question of Patrik Laine and Kyle Connor. Both star forwards are heading into the final years of their entry-level contracts, and both could break the bank on long-term extensions. While Laine says there is no rush to get a deal done, the Jets have to try and save every possible dollar if they’re going to be able to bring back Wheeler and Myers too. Connor is fresh off a breakout 31-goal campaign as a rookie, and Laine looks like he’s poised to be the next great NHL goal scorer capable of winning multiple Maurice Richard trophies and contending for the Hart as league MVP. That kind of player could get an eight figure salary if he pushes hard for it, though the recent Nikita Kucherov extension could put a soft cap on winger earnings for a while.
The Jets are currently sitting with $35MM in cap space for the 2018-19 season, but that suddenly doesn’t seem like very much when you start adding up the salaries of Morrissey, Wheeler, Myers, Trouba, Laine and Connor. There’s room to keep everyone in Winnipeg, but it will be a tight fit. The next 12 months will be an incredibly busy period for GM Kevin Cheveldayoff, even while the team tries to compete for the Stanley Cup.
Zdeno Chara May Play Past 2018-19
Among the oldest active players in the NHL is Boston Bruins defenseman Zdeno Chara, who will turn 42 next March and is on just a one-year contract for 2018-19. While many have pointed to his dwindling point totals in recent years as a signal that Chara’s game is declining, many in Boston will tell you that there is still quite a bit of hockey left in the Bruins captain. Head coach Bruce Cassidy is one of those who thinks there may be more to Chara than just this season, and he told WEEI radio that directly:
[Chara]’s got a lot of hockey left in him. I know that for a fact. He trains harder than anyone I know, his conditioning is through the roof. He’s trying to stay current with the game and the way it is played, working on his puck skills and getting back on pucks. Those little things that maybe the average person doesn’t see every night, that he’s working on maybe three or four games after we lost out [of the playoffs]. He wants to have his legacy run a lot longer than just one more year, and I wouldn’t put it past him to play four or five more years in this league.
Chara is projected to come into the season only behind Matt Cullen of the Pittsburgh Penguins in age, but still logged nearly 23 minutes a night for the Bruins in 2017-18. The ageless defenseman even received Norris Trophy votes, something he hadn’t done since finishing as the runner-up in 2013-14. That’s because of his incredible penalty killing ability and support for the new wave of Bruins defensemen led by Charlie McAvoy. Chara no longer gets the powerplay opportunities for Boston, but kills almost four minutes of short-handed time every night and is still extremely tough to play against in his own end.
With over 1,400 games played already, another four or five seasons would certainly be an incredible accomplishment. Chris Chelios currently ranks first all-time in games played by a defenseman with 1,651, a number that Chara could potentially eclipse in just three seasons. If he can continue to play at such a high level—and his infamous fitness and health regime gives him a good chance at that—there’s no reason to think he couldn’t take over the all-time lead. The Bruins will have to decide whether that will be in Boston though, as the team will have lots of contracts to worry about in the near future. McAvoy is a restricted free agent for the first time next season, as are Danton Heinen, Ryan Donato and Brandon Carlo. There’s little chance that Chara would test free agency if Boston wanted him back though, especially if he’s still making a positive impact on the ice.
Minor Transactions: 08/21/18
One day closer to the start of the NHL preseason, and there are more moves happening in other corners of the hockey world. We’ll keep track of them right here.
- Igor Eronko of Sport-Express is reporting that David Desharnais will see his contract terminated in the KHL, only to sign with another team. Desharnais signed quickly this summer with HC Lokomotiv, but is apparently headed somewhere else to start his KHL journey. The diminutive center played 71 games for the New York Rangers last season and actually contributed 28 points, but took a deal just a few days into free agency to head overseas. Now 31-years old, Desharnais could eventually return to the NHL if he can prove his offensive touch is still around.
- Toronto Maple Leafs prospect Martins Dzierkals has signed with Dinamo Riga of the KHL, heading back to his home country of Latvia after several years in North America. Drafted in the third round three years ago, Dzierkals never earned an NHL contract from the Maple Leafs but had been working with their development staff and playing in the ECHL. The talented forward will test his game at a higher level in 2017-18, and could try to earn a contract somewhere else in the NHL in the next few years.
Snapshots: Jets, Islanders, Stars
Do the Winnipeg Jets need to reassess how they are building their team? Obviously, GM Kevin Cheveldayoff and company are doing a fine job as is; the Jets finished with the second-best record in the NHL last season and boast one of the league’s youngest lineups. However, Paul Wiecek of The Winnipeg Free Press makes a valid point that with a cap crunch coming for the talented squad, the team would be better off shifting their focus away from the blue line and onto the forward corps. Wiecek cites the contract disputes with Jacob Trouba – who will be a restricted free agent once again next summer – and the still unsigned Josh Morrissey as situations that the Jets could move on from in the near future. Tyler Myers and Ben Chiarot will also both be unrestricted free agents next off-season and the team will have to figure out what do there as well. Instead of continuing to devote precious cap space to the blue line, like the Jets’ Central Division rival Nashville Predators, Wiecek feels the team would be better off focusing their efforts and expenditures up front. With Patrik Laine and Kyle Connor, as well as several other young depth forwards, headed to restricted free agency in 2019, it may be in Winnipeg’s best interests to sign their talented homegrown forwards to long-term deals and look at other options on the blue line. The same goes for re-signing captain Blake Wheeler, an impending UFA would draw considerable interest if he hit the open market. Wiecek suggests the team look at the recent Stanley Cup winners, the Washington Capitals and Pittsburgh Penguins, who were far more invested in star power and depth up front than on the back end. With that talent already in place among the Jets’ forwards, and some dissent and long-term questions on the blue line, this may be an idea that would work out very well in Winnipeg’s favor.
- Another team making changes to their structure are the New York Islanders. However, this adjustment is one of strategy and culture under new head coach Barry Trotz. The Athletic’s Arthur Staple sat down with the recent Stanley Cup winner and learned about the whirlwind first couple of months for Trotz with the team. Trotz was not short on feelings about the club and its future:
“There’s going to be change. It’s going to be structurally, on and off the ice, expectations are going to change… On the ice, I have a vision of how we can play to be better. This team can score, with John Tavares or without John Tavares. The area it’s failed in maybe the last year and a half is on the defensive end. Just looking at the trends over the last four years, it’s clear that’s an area we need to fix. The great thing about the game, one of the hardest things to do in this league is create offense and score goals. This team has been able to do that in the last four years. One of the easiest things to correct, if there’s a commitment and a buy-in, is keeping the puck out of your net. We’ll need a bigger buy-in, we’ll put some structure, we’ll make sure the details are there and we’ll make players accountable. If they’re not, we’ll get someone who can be accountable. And we’ve got to build our players. We’ve got some unfinished products who can certainly be better. Get them to play to their capabilities, that’s all we ask. We want them to be consistent and play to their capabilities, we never ask guys to do more than they’re capable of.”
To say it has been a difficult summer for the Islanders and their fans, given the loss of Tavares and the lack of improvement elsewhere on the roster, is an understatement. However, they still obtained a successful and well-respected coach and hearing that he has a clear plan and is open about his expectations has to be a boost to the morale of the team and its supporters.
- Another new head coach has his players excited for the coming season. In speaking with Mike Zeisberger of NHL.com, Dallas Stars defenseman John Klingberg expressed his pleasure with the team’s hiring of Jim Montgomery as their new coach. Montgomery recently visited Klingberg at his home in Sweden and the talented defender came away very impressed with their first real interaction. Not only was Klingberg very appreciative of his new bench boss’ willingness to make the long trek to visit him, but also connected with Montgomery about his plans for the team and his own individual development. Klingberg feels that Montgomery can help him transform into a true No. 1 defenseman and that his plan for the team will play to the elite puck-movers strength. Klingberg summarized his excitement for the new campaign nicely, telling Zeisberger that he and Montgomery “have the potential to do some big things.”
Minor Transactions: 08/20/18
The hockey world chugs along as we wait for preseason games to start in a few weeks. We’ll keep track of the minor moves right here:
- Joseph LaBate has signed an AHL contract with the Belleville Senators, leaving the Vancouver Canucks organization after three years. LaBate was eligible for Group VI unrestricted free agency this summer after failing to crack the Canucks lineup for more than 13 games, and will now try his hand with the AHL affiliate of the Ottawa Senators. The 6’5″ winger is a tough player to line up against, and will give the Senators a little more size for the 2017-18 season.
- Brett Murray has left Penn State University to return to junior hockey according to Patrick Burns of the Daily Collegian. Murray, a Buffalo Sabres fourth-round draft pick, has experience in the USHL but could also go to the OHL where the Oshawa Generals still hold his rights. The big winger scored just six points in 21 games for Penn State last season, but will take his talents back to the junior ranks where he had found more success in the past.
- Colton Hargrove, a Boston Bruins draft pick, has signed an AHL contract with the Texas Stars for 2018-19. In three seasons with the Providence Bruins Hargrove registered 87 total points, including a solid season in 2017-18 with 33 in just 52 games. The 26-year old became an unrestricted free agent in 2017 when the Bruins decided not to extend him a qualifying offer.
What Does The Future Hold For Jake Gardiner?
Before July 1st, few people outside of the Toronto Maple Leafs front office were too concerned about the contract status of defenseman Jake Gardiner, who enters the final year of his current deal in 2018-19. Then Drew Doughty, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Ryan McDonagh, and Ryan Ellis all preemptively signed long, expensive extensions. Just like that, the situation for Gardiner changed completely.
Looking ahead to next summer, there is now an argument to be made that Gardiner is the second-best defenseman on the unrestricted free agent market as it currently stands. That was far from true earlier this summer. He has gone from an afterthought to an Erik Karlsson consolation prize. While the free agent class features many prominent veteran defenders – Jay Bouwmeester, Anton Stralman, Marc Methot, and Alexander Edler – it lacks many long-term pieces behind Karlsson and Gardiner. The Winnipeg Jets’ Tyler Myers and the Vegas Golden Knights’ Nate Schmidt would perhaps offer Gardiner some competition, if either unexpectedly reaches the market, but there is a strong case to be made that Gardiner would be the superior target.
The real question is whether or not Gardiner actually makes it to free agency. While nothing has changed about Gardiner’s value or ability since July 1st, his relative cost has shifted dramatically. With a potentially loaded free agent market for defensemen, Gardiner would have been taking a risk by turning down a fair extension from the Leafs to pursue other offers that may not have come once the smoke cleared from the major signings. Now that he almost certainly will be considered one of the top available names, Toronto may have to pay a premium to keep him from testing the waters, if they can. By the time Gardiner finishes next season, his career games played and offensive production will likely be superior to those currently of a player like McDonagh, who just signed a seven-year extension worth $6.75MM AAV. Granted, Gardiner is not the all-around player that McDonagh is, but given his continuously improving play and the boost of being a top available younger player, it is a fair frame of reference. For example, look at the four-year, $18.2MM contract that Calvin de Haan – considered by many to be the best defenseman in this current free agent class – signed with the Carolina Hurricanes this summer despite missing the majority of last season due to injury. The market sets the price and scarcity drives up price.
So will Toronto ante up to keep Gardiner? The Maple Leafs have to be careful with their long-term salary cap management. The team still owes William Nylander a contract this summer, as well as extensions for Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner by next off-season. Those are the three names that everyone is focused on when it comes to Toronto. Yet, in addition to Gardiner, other impending free agents that the Leafs would like to keep include forwards Kasperi Kapanen, Andreas Johnsson, and Josh Leivo, defensemen Travis Dermott, Andreas Borgman, and Connor Carrick, goaltender Garret Sparks, and even incoming imports Par Lindholm and Igor Ozhiganov who could win spots on the team this season. This is the final year that Toronto can take advantage of this massive group of bargain players, all of whom are paid $1.3MM or less and due raises. Not to mention, signing Gardiner and the other blue liners and losing veteran Ron Hainsey will still keep a massive hole open on the right side of the defense that the team will need to continue to search to fill.
The numbers simply don’t seem to add up, at least not very neatly. It would seem difficult for the Maple Leafs to pay Gardiner his market value, extend all of their other key impending free agents, fill the gap on the right side of the top pair next to Morgan Rielly, and still somehow end up under the salary cap next season. The story line to watch this season, as the John Tavares era begins, is whether the Jake Gardiner era is ending. Another career year for the capable defenseman could leave the Leafs without much choice but to let him walk next off-season and continue to work with a pieced together blue line. Do they trade him at the deadline? Do they trade a young core forward to replace him? Or instead do they somehow move salary to fit Gardiner in at any cost? Find out in 2018-19.
Ryan Ellis Doing “His Part” To Keep Nashville Predators Together
When the Nashville Predators announced an eight-year, $50MM contract extension for Ryan Ellis earlier this week, the initial reaction by many was surprise at the relatively low cap hit. Ellis’s deal will carry an average annual value of just $6.25MM starting in 2019-20, putting him 21st in the league among defenders already signed through that season. He’s sure to drop at least a few more spots as contracts are signed by players like Erik Karlsson, Tyler Myers, Jacob Trouba and Jake Gardiner depending on what they eventually negotiate, and even more if youngsters like Zach Werenski or Charlie McAvoy get huge contracts coming out of their entry-level deals.
While Ellis isn’t among the absolute elite, he should likely be considered in the group just below that and could have earned more than $6.25MM in free agency next summer. We’d already seen offensive defensemen like John Carlson and Oliver Ekman-Larsson get upwards of $8MM per season, and even if he didn’t get to those heights a $7MM cap hit could’ve been expected. It seems like he knows that, but was more than willing to take a little less to stay in Nashville and compete for the Stanley Cup for a long time. Ellis spoke with Robby Stanley of NHL.com and explained his thought process in negotiating the reasonable cap hit.
I’m getting paid more than enough to play hockey, and I’m very excited to be able to do that for a long time. It was just about coming across a fair deal and what worked for both sides. We have other guys that need to be re-upped and need to be signed in the future, and I had to do my part to keep this thing going in the right direction. If we can keep everyone here and keep the core together, I think we can compete for a Stanley Cup for the next ten years at least.
Ellis has long been considered one of the key leaders in the Nashville locker room, and from comments like these you can easily see why. Though he certainly won’t be worried about money any time soon, taking even a little less in order for the team to stay competitive is not a common practice among professional athletes. As well it shouldn’t be, some would argue, given that every time someone gets the best deal he can it helps the entire group of players drive salaries upwards. Comparable contracts are used extensively in negotiations, and someone like Ellis settling for a little bit less actually could hurt the earning potential of another player. We’ve seen a similar thing happen with Connor McDavid settling for just $12.5MM per season instead of the $15MM maximum he likely could have demanded, making it basically impossible for any other player coming out of an entry-level deal to ask for that much. Auston Matthews, who could get a six figure salary on his next contract, potentially can’t ask for $12.5MM if he isn’t making the same contribution as McDavid, even though he likely could have if the Edmonton Oilers superstar had taken a bit more.
Still for Nashville, having a player take a little less is extremely important. We’ve seen the Predators work out team-friendly contracts in the past which has made their current salary structure more than manageable, but there are still big names to sign in the coming years. Captain Roman Josi is scheduled to hit unrestricted free agency in 2020, and they’ll have to make a decision on Pekka Rinne‘s future at some point in the next 10 months. Though they have Juuse Saros on one of those team-friendly contracts, it’s hard to just walk away from a perennial Vezina contender.
For Ellis, there is still plenty of money to go around in the contract and having the security of an eight-year extension makes it possible that he spends his entire career with one organization. Though GM David Poile doesn’t give out no-trade clauses, Ellis at least has the chance to play parts of 16 seasons with the Predators before needing a new contract. That’s a heck of a career for any player, especially one who many people doubted in the 2009 Entry Draft for being too small to handle defense in the NHL. Ellis rewarded the Predators with incredible play for a bargain basement price on his first multi-year extension, and now has taken at least a little bit less to stick around another eight years.
Sixteen College Players Become Unrestricted Free Agents
At midnight last night, sixteen college players drafted by NHL teams became unrestricted free agents after failing to sign an entry-level contract. These players are now eligible to sign with any team in the league, though none of them stand out as immediate targets. Our Zach Leach broke down the best available options recently, including several players who have already agreed to minor league contracts. None of the teams that drafted these players will receive any compensation for the expiring rights.
Johnathan MacLeod – Tampa Bay Lightning, 57th overall, 2014
Jack Glover – Winnipeg Jets, 69th overall, 2014
Shane Eiserman – Ottawa Senators, 100th overall, 2014
Michael Prapavessis – Dallas Stars, 105th overall, 2014
Aidan Muir – Edmonton Oilers, 113th overall, 2013
Steven Johnson – Los Angeles Kings, 120th overall, 2014
Max Willman – Buffalo Sabres, 121st overall, 2014
Terrance Amorosa – Philadelphia Flyers, 132nd overall, 2013
Tyler Bird – Columbus Blue Jackets, 137th overall, 2014
Avery Peterson – Minnesota Wild, 167th overall, 2013
Kelly Summers – Ottawa Senators, 189th overall, 2014
Jared Fiegl – Arizona Coyotes, 191st overall, 2014 *Has signed with Orlando Solar Bears (ECHL)
David Drake – Philadelphia Flyers, 192nd overall, 2013 *Has signed with Lehigh Valley Phantoms (AHL)
Matt Ustaski – Winnipeg Jets, 192nd overall, 2014 *Has signed with Manitoba Moose (AHL)
Dwyer Tschantz – St. Louis Blues, 202nd overall, 2014 *Has signed with Maine Mariners (ECHL)
Judd Peterson – Buffalo Sabres, 204th overall, 2012
Patrik Laine In “No Rush” To Sign Extension
Among those players heading into the final season of their entry-level contracts, there are several tiers of production. It would be impressive enough if the very top was made up of players like Mitch Marner, Brock Boeser and Sebastian Aho, but there are a few key talents considered in even higher regard. Mikko Rantanen may be in a tier by himself just above those players, given his 84-point season in 2017-18 but there are two even higher than that who will likely be compared to each other for much of their careers.
Auston Matthews and Patrik Laine were the first and second picks of the 2016 draft, and headed to extremely different situations. Matthews, the California-born, Arizona-raised center was brought to the Toronto Maple Leafs, who had just finished dead last in the NHL and had struggled for years to accumulate any young talent. Laine, the Finnish sniper with the Ovechkin-like shot was sent to Winnipeg to compliment an impressive core that had already been mostly built. While the media attention and league notoriety of the two markets might be polar opposites, both players have shown themselves to be elite talents in the NHL and will likely demand huge contract extensions at some point in the next year.
Laine, for what it’s worth, is in no rush to get a deal done. Speaking to media including Tom Gulliti of NHL.com, the Winnipeg superstar was his usual laid-back self when addressing his contract situation.
I really don’t care. There’s no rush, really. I can do it next summer or this summer. I don’t mind.
It’s always easier if it’s long-term so you don’t have to think about doing a new contract for a while, and I’m happy where I’m at. I want to stay there, for sure. That’s something I want to do, and hopefully they’re thinking the same way.
Whether he waits for next summer or not, Laine is set to become one of the highest-paid forwards in the league in short order. When Jack Eichel, the second-overall pick from 2015, signed his eight-year $80MM extension that ties him for the fifth among league cap hits up front, he was coming off a 57-point season with the Buffalo Sabres. Granted, that number was reached in just 61 games, but when comparing Eichel’s production with Laine’s it’s easy to see why the Winnipeg forward will get really expensive, really quickly. In 209 career games now, Eichel—who is also a center, which normally demands more salary and responsibility—has 73 goals and 177 points. Laine meanwhile has scored 80 goals in just 155 contests, while maintaining a higher points-per-game rate as well.
That’s not to disparage Eichel, who is an incredible player in his own right and will likely set career-highs this season after being rewarded with better linemates, but goes to show the level on which Laine has been performing to this point in his career. While the Maple Leafs try to prepare a way to fit an eight figure salary into their structure for Matthews, it’s not out of the question to think that the Jets will have to do the same. That makes it tough on a club that has more than just Laine to pay over the next few seasons, as Blake Wheeler, Kyle Connor, Jacob Trouba and Tyler Myers are all hitting free agency of one sort or another next summer. It’s a good thing that there is “no rush” to get things done, because the Jets still need to find a way to fit everyone in.