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Free Agent Profile: Travis Hamonic

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It wasn’t that long ago that Travis Hamonic was viewed as a core defenseman.  While things have changed a bit since then (especially with mobility and offensive skills becoming more important from the back end), he’s still a capable shutdown defender.  That’s why he was ranked as the 13th-best UFA in this class, sixth among blueliners.  The five in front of him signed relatively quickly but as we approach the first full month of this offseason, Hamonic remains unsigned.

It’s not as if teams aren’t on the lookout for a right-shot defender that can play more than 20 minutes a night either.  That’s something that just about every team in the league can use.

So why is Hamonic still unsigned?  He didn’t help his cause during the regular season when he had just a dozen points in 50 games.  Again, the 30-year-old is more of a stay-at-home player but that output is still pretty low for someone who played over 21 minutes a night.  The fact that he opted out of the NHL’s Return to Play for family reasons also lingers, not in the sense that prospective suitors are holding that against him but that it may be affecting his willingness to commit somewhere at this time.

But while he’s never going to light up the scoresheet, Hamonic can still play solid defense, kill penalties, and block shots.  That’s still a role that should be in considerable demand around the league but with the UFA market slowing to a crawl at the moment, it appears he may be waiting a little while yet before signing somewhere.

Potential Suitors

There are multiple situations where Hamonic could be a fit for teams.  Quite a few will be hoping to add an impact defender over the next couple of months and he would fit the bill.  If he wants to take a shot at a Stanley Cup, there are contending teams that would find a spot for him at the right price tag.  And if he wants to take a one-year deal at the most money possible, as arguably the best defenseman still available, that type of contract should eventually become available as well.

In the Eastern Conference, the Flyers really haven’t completely filled the vacancy created by Matt Niskanen’s sudden retirement.  They brought back Justin Braun but he’s better served in more of a depth role and while they also brought in Erik Gustafsson, he’s nowhere near as good of a defensive player as Niskanen was.  Hamonic could step into that void.  Detroit could certainly use him as someone on their second pair behind Filip Hronek which would shift Troy Stecher into a third-pairing role which may be his best spot and cap space won’t be an issue for them.  Cap room also isn’t an issue for the Devils who could use a stabilizing defensive presence to help counter some of their more offensively-aggressive blueliners.

Out West, Hamonic’s hometown team in Winnipeg certainly should be a suitor.  While they were able to retain deadline acquisition Dylan DeMelo, they still have a defense corps that’s in need of some improvement.  With the announcement that Bryan Little has been told not to play this season, the Jets will have some LTIR space at their disposal which could be used to bring the blueliner in.  The Kings have plenty of cap space and could certainly stand to improve their back end, even with its relative strength being on the right side.  On a short-term deal, in particular, that might be a fit.  Dallas has a question mark with regards to the health of Stephen Johns; if he is expected to be LTIR-bound once again, Hamonic would represent a potential short-term replacement and upgrade if the Stars opt to dip into that.  (With their potential bonuses, it’s not a guarantee that they would.)

Of course, there are quite a few other teams where Hamonic would be a key player but would need to free up cap room in order to do so.  Given how difficult that is proving to be this offseason, it’s difficult to classify any of them as possible suitors at this time.

Projected Contract

When our initial projections came out, we had Hamonic receiving a three-year, $12.5MM deal.  That AAV wasn’t much higher than the deal he just finished while being lower than the salary he received in each of the last four seasons.  Even in a deflated market, that price tag seemed doable.

That doesn’t appear to be the case now as while a few teams still have money they’re willing to spend, they can afford to look for bargains.  Hamonic’s case is bolstered in that he is a top player at his position left on the open market which should help him a bit but a pay cut appears to definitely be on the horizon.  If Hamonic takes a one-year deal, a $3.5MM salary may be his ceiling with the price tag dipping if he signs for longer.  He should still wind up with a decent contract but he will eventually be added to the ever-growing list of players that will wind up with less than they expected.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Red Wings Still Open To Further Off-Season Additions

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The Detroit Red Wings are firmly in a rebuild following the worst season by an NHL team since the turn of the century in 2019-20. The club has accumulated a mass amount of talent in the pipeline over the past few years and still has an impressive array of future draft selections as well. They are committed to improving internally and grooming a new core to take over down the road.

With that said, savvy GM Steve Yzerman is not one to turn away from opportunity. With the flat salary cap impacting top teams far more than bottom feeders, the Red Wings have had the room to make a number of free agent additions so far this off-season. Following a recent call with the media, The Detroit News’ Ted Kulfan writes that Yzerman has expressed that he may not be done making deals either. Detroit still has more than $9.5MM in cap space based on CapFriendly’s current projection of a 22-man roster.

Already, the Red Wings have added considerable veteran talent ahead of next season. The team signed a new (starting?) goalie in Thomas Greiss, a pair of young defensemen in Troy Stecher and Jon Merrill, and experienced, versatile forwards Vladislav Namestnikov, Bobby Ryan, and Sam Gagner. They also acquired reliable blue line leader Marc Staal (and a second-round pick) at no cost from the New York Rangers. Not only is this a massive influx of talent for 2020-21, but expiring contracts like Ryan, Gagner, Staal, and Merrill could also turn into more draft capital at the trade deadline.

Not only have the Red Wings succeeded in adding a number of capable players, but most have come at a great value as well. So too have their RFA re-signings; Anthony Mantha signed a long-term deal well below what many were expecting, Robby Fabbri was handed an affordable extension, and the team took Tyler Bertuzzi to arbitration just to save more money. All of this value means that Detroit can keep adding if they want. There are still holes throughout the lineup currently slated for underwhelming veterans. While some of these will be kept open for prospects, at least one or two could be filled via free agency or trade if Yzerman can find the right fit:

There are a lot of players still on the free agent market. We have a lot of bodies right now. I do think there’s room potentially to add, and I would consider it as we go along, or when we get closer to knowing when we’re going to start. As far as the trade market… it’s pretty quiet around the league. Certainly we’d be open to listening.

Ryan Strome Signs With New York Rangers

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The New York Rangers have reached an agreement with restricted free agent forward Ryan Strome ahead of his arbitration hearing, signing him to a two-year contract worth a total of $9MM according to Larry Brooks of the New York Post. Strome’s hearing had been scheduled for later today, with his camp filing for $5.7MM and the Rangers filing for $3.6MM. This deal’s AAV comes down in the middle of those two numbers, but also importantly buys out an extra year of unrestricted free agency.

Strome, 27, could only have received a one-year contract from the arbitration process as he was scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent after this season. The fifth-overall pick from 2011, he has already played in 491 NHL games in his career. Those haven’t all been successful outings, but Strome did seem to find his footing again after landing in New York in 2018. With 59 points in 70 games last season he was the team’s best offensive weapon behind the super-pair of Artemi Panarin and Mika Zibanejad, though that isn’t expected to continue. The Rangers have a number of blue-chip prospects ready to make an impact including 2020 first-overall pick Alexis Lafreniere.

What Strome does still represent is a solid middle-six center for a team that suddenly looks like they will compete for a playoff spot. Their offense is young, skilled, and deep, while the crease is safe in the hands of two young netminders. Tony DeAngelo was re-signed to a two-year deal, and Adam Fox looks like a future star.

Even if they decide that Strome isn’t the player they want to sign a long-term UFA deal with, the Rangers will have two cracks at it with him on this new deal, one that certainly doesn’t impede their ability to add even more. Only Brendan Lemieux remains unsigned and the team has more than $6.3MM in cap space.

Detroit Red Wings Sign Anthony Mantha

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The Detroit Red Wings have reached an agreement with Anthony Mantha on a new four-year contract. Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet reports that the deal is worth an average annual value of $5.7MM. Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic provides the full breakdown:

  • 2020-21: $4.5MM
  • 2021-22: $5.3MM
  • 2022-23: $6.5MM
  • 2023-24: $6.5MM

This multi-year contract locks up a core piece of the Red Wings forward group and actually becomes the longest deal on the books for GM Steve Yzerman. Mantha is the only player in the organization currently signed through the 2023-24 season, with even Dylan Larkin expiring a year earlier. That term and security likely bought Detroit some cap savings on the deal, given how effective Mantha has been in his last few seasons.

A first-round pick in 2013, it took a few years for the power forward to fill out and reach the NHL. When he did though, he brought the instant goal scoring that he had provided at every other step of the way, scoring 17 in his first full season in Detroit. Mantha followed that up with 24 goals in his sophomore campaign and 25 in just 67 games in 2018-19, showing how easily he would be able to reach the 30-goal threshold at some point.

Unfortunately, after scoring 12 goals and 24 points in his first 29 games of 2019-20, Mantha was injured when he was tossed to the ground by Toronto Maple Leafs defenseman Jake Muzzin. He would miss more than six weeks of the season, making his return to the lineup in mid-February. Perhaps even more effective down the stretch, Mantha put up 14 more points in 14 games before the season was halted, bringing his totals to 16 goals and 38 points in just 43 games this year.

That kind of per-game production, especially for a player that is still squarely in his prime, is usually rewarded with even more money than Detroit committed here. The deal buys out two years of unrestricted free agency and could look like a steal if Mantha can get healthy enough to play every night, finally reaching that 30-goal mark.

For the Red Wings, who are still in their rebuilding phase, this represents a relatively low-risk investment in a core player. Without any other long-term commitments, the team has ample cap space over the next few years to develop and sign their young talent. Names like Darren Helm, Valtteri Filppula, Luke Glendening, Marc Staal, Patrik Nemeth, and Jonathan Bernier are all on contracts that expire after this season, opening up the playbook for Yzerman to build the squad as he sees fit.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Ryan Strome, New York Rangers Exchange Arbitration Figures

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The next arbitration hearing is set for Thursday, with Ryan Strome and the New York Rangers sitting down (virtually) to make their case for a new contract. Today, they exchanged filings. Strome has filed for $5.7MM, while the Rangers have filed for $3.6MM, according to Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet.

It is important to remember that in the NHL, the arbitrator does not need to choose one filing or the other and usually instead awards a contract somewhere in the middle. The two sides can also come to an agreement in the coming days, though this year once the hearing begins they must wait for the reward and cannot settle while the arbitrator deliberates.

In this case, the player’s ask is above the $4,538,938 “walk away” threshold, meaning that if the award comes in above that number the Rangers would have the option to release Strome to unrestricted free agency instead. If they choose to do that, Strome would actually have an opportunity to take the initial $3.6MM team filing instead of testing the market—a tougher decision in today’s flat-cap world.

Already 27, Strome is only eligible for a one-year contract and would become a UFA next offseason. The fifth-overall pick from 2011 has had a very up-and-down career, finding his footing early with the Islanders only to struggle for several years afterward. Following an unsuccessful stint with the Edmonton Oilers, Strome has found a new home in New York, recording 18 goals and 59 points last season.

The savvy, playmaking center still doesn’t have the greatest foot speed or elite raw skills but has proven he can be a capable middle-six pivot in the right situation. With the Rangers suddenly looking extremely dangerous at forward, perhaps they would be willing to pay up for a season of Strome to see what this group can do in the standings. A long-term deal is still obviously possible, if unlikely, especially if it would cost the Rangers upwards of $5MM per season. The team has several young players to get under contract in the coming years and may not be able to afford a contract like that for Strome.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Bruins’ Kevan Miller Expected To Start 2020-21 Healthy

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It has been a rough couple of years for Kevan Miller. The Boston Bruins defenseman missed the entire 2019-20 season with a fractured kneecap, an injury that incurred setback after setback. The season prior, 2018-19, was when the kneecap injury initially occurred, causing Miller to miss the team’s regular season finale and all 24 postseason games as they reached Game Seven of the Stanley Cup Final. It was his fourth different injury of the season, as he was able to play in just 39 games. In that limited action, Miller’s play reflected someone who was never quite at 100% and paled in comparison to his previous seasons.

Miller can only hope that 2020-21 will be different and that obviously starts with his health. He tells Ty Anderson of The Sports Hub that things are trending in the right direction:

I’m doing really well. Knee is feeling great, body is feeling great. Obviously, had a lot of time to get things in order. I’m making really good progress. I’ve been skating two to three times a week. I’ve been training. I’m really, super excited to have the opportunity to play again. If we were playing right now, I wouldn’t be cleared. But come puck-drop, I definitely will be. I have no doubt in my mind I will be 100 percent by then.

If there is any reason to believe Miller’s hopeful statement, it’s because the Bruins did. Boston rushed to re-sign Miller on the first day of unrestricted free agency, despite not having seen him play since April 2019. They also didn’t just hand him a minimum-salary “show me” deal, either. Miller signed a one-year deal with incentives, yes, but it includes a $1MM base salary and a $250K roster bonus for spending just one day on the active roster. That’s essentially $1.25MM guaranteed with a maximum of $2MM with bonuses.

Boston’s other moves this off-season also reflect some faith in Miller’s comeback. Even after losing Torey Krug, the Bruins have refrained from adding to their defense corps. To this point, they have not even re-signed Zdeno Chara. On paper, this leaves the Bruins very thin on the blue line. Charlie McAvoy, Brandon Carlo, and Matt Grzelcyk are returning regulars who will play top-four roles, but the other starting jobs appeared to be up for grabs between another oft-injured veteran in John Moore and promising but unproven prospects Jeremy Lauzon, Connor Clifton, and Jakub Zboril. The team also has veteran Steven Kampfer, first-round prospect Urho Vaakanainen, and high profile college signing Jack Ahcan slated for AHL Providence. The group has some depth, but isn’t exactly loaded with the talent and experience that one would expect from a contender.

A healthy Miller would help with that. Although he has played almost exclusively in the NHL since 2013-14, Miller has just two seasons with 68+ games played, the most recent in 2017-18. Yet, in each of those seasons he averaged over 19 minutes of ice time per game, recorded nearly 20 points, logged over 150 hits and 100 blocked shots, played a key role on the penalty kill, and produced strong plus/minus and possession numbers. Granted, it has been a while since Miller has played a complete season, but his career numbers indicate that at full health he has the ceiling of a top-four shutdown defenseman, a possible Chara replacement even.

However, the caveat to any Miller excitement is that health is never guaranteed, even if he does begin the season at full strength. Miller’s resume reads like a list of all possible hockey injuries, and then some. He’s lost an even 200 regular season games to injury in his career, with ailments including the standard upper-body and lower-body injuries, concussions, and sickness but also multiple injuries to his shoulders and hands as well as a bruised larynx. Miller’s kneecap will be of most concern in the coming season, but the aggressive defenseman has shown a propensity for injury and cannot be trusted for a season-long role even if the knee holds up. A healthy Miller to begin the season is good news for the Bruins, but his presence and peak performance cannot be relied upon.

Buffalo Sabres Avoid Arbitration With Victor Olofsson

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One of the most intriguing arbitration cases scheduled for the next few days was Victor Olofsson, the Buffalo Sabres sniper who has scored 22 goals and 46 points in his 60-game NHL career. Despite being a relative newcomer to the NHL, Olofsson is already 25 and is a lot closer to unrestricted free agency than some of his rookie counterparts. His hearing was scheduled for November 4, but it appears as though it will not be necessary. The Sabres have signed Olofsson to a two-year contract that carries an average annual value of $3.05MM. Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic reports that it will pay Olofsson $2.85MM in 2020-21 and $3.25MM in 2021-22.

Not only does a two-year deal limit the cap hit and provides a very real chance for the Sabres to receive excess value out of the young forward, but it also leaves him a restricted free agent in 2022. While he has already turned 25, Olofsson’s birthday comes after the normal start of free agency meaning this deal does not walk him right to the UFA market. At its expiry, the two sides will have a chance to work out a long-term deal should his outstanding goal production continue.

Even though he has real 30-goal potential, there are some things to consider about Olofsson’s production so far. Only nine of his 22 career goals have come at even-strength, and this year he scored on 15.7% of his shots. If used properly he can be a game-changing presence on the powerplay, but he has still yet to prove that he can jump over the boards and produce at even-strength on a regular basis.

Still, there’s a lot to like about a deal that pays him about half of what the Sabres owe Kyle Okposo in each of the next three seasons, or what they could have found on the free agent market. Olofsson will join a top-six that suddenly looks quite impressive, after the offseason additions of Taylor Hall and Eric Staal. The team also has top prospect Dylan Cozens coming and still have Jack Eichel in the middle of it all, providing all-world production.

At the end of this deal, Olofsson will be arbitration-eligible once again and could potentially get himself to unrestricted free agency by taking that one-year award. He’ll also be owed a hefty qualifying offer of $3.25MM, something he could fall back on if his production dips but the Sabres still want to keep him around.

Because this was their final arbitration case, Buffalo will now receive a short buyout window starting two days from now.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Free Agent Profile: Erik Haula

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Despite the excitement of  the free-agent flurry that started off the 2020 offseason, things have calmed down now quite a bit and yet there remain a number of free agents out there for teams to pick up. Yet with little cap room remaining for most the playoff hopefuls, teams are being extra cautious about paying out too much to free agents. especially if they are coming off a down season. That perfectly explains the situation for free-agent center Erik Haula, who has now found himself looking for a fourth team in just two-plus seasons and is coming off a 12-goal campaign last year.

The 29-year-old will be hitting 30 during the 2020-21 season and has dealt with numerous injuries, including a gruesome leg injury that held him to just 15 games in 2018-19. However, that hasn’t stopped teams from showing interest in the center, one of the few potential impact centers remaining on the free-agent market, who was ranked 16th in our PHR Top-50 Free Agents. If healthy, he has the potential to fill a second-line center role or be a top third-line option in the middle. He has the potential to put up goals, scoring 29 goals in Vegas’ inaugural season in 2017-18.

Despite Vegas’ love for Haula, the team even had cap issues after their second season and were forced to send Haula to the Carolina Hurricanes to free up some cap room. Haula signed a three-year, $8.25MM contract ($2.75MM AAV) with Vegas as part of a deal for the Golden Knights to select him in the expansion draft from Minnesota and looked like a significant find after the first year. The injury held up that outlook for the next season and Carolina was hoping to recapture some of that offensive magic last season. Instead, he struggled through more knee injuries on and off and only appeared in 41 games with 12 goals before the Hurricanes packaged him to Florida for Vincent Trocheck. Haula scored no goals in seven games for the Panthers before the team’s season ended.

However in the right system and with plenty of extra time to allow his knee to fully mend, Haula could fill a significant hole in a team’s middle and if everything goes right, could thrive there.

Potential Suitors

Not surprisingly, Haula has received significant interest from at least 10-12 teams, yet no deal has been struck. The forward is likely looking for a potential long-term deal, deals that aren’t really offered to players right now as several free agents have had to ink one-year deals in hopes that the 2021 offseason may prove to be more lucrative and hopes that COVID-19 may settle down in a year.

Perhaps one of the most obvious suitors would be returning to the one team where he had the most success. The Golden Knights might be a perfect fit for Haula as the team was forced to send off center Paul Stastny to Winnipeg to save cap room and with Cody Glass’ rookie season having also been interrupted by injury, there is a clear opening for a No. 2 center in the system. Of course, the team is so tight against the cap that the team doesn’t even have the money for a minimum-salaried deal without clearing more cap room, which will be difficult. The team has already made it clear they will not be moving now back-up goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury, which means they will be spending $12MM on their goalies this coming year.

Rumors that the Pittsburgh Penguins could be looking for a third-line center to fill in some depth for another Stanley Cup run with their veteran squad. Pittsburgh doesn’t have a clear-cut third or fourth-line center, so Haula would be a big addition to a team that needs to get more scoring from their bottom-six. Of course, the team must look at their cap issues as well. Other teams such as the New Jersey Devils and the Vancouver Canucks have come up although there are likely many others, but only the Devils have the cap room to easily bring him in.

Projected Contract

PHR initially projected Haula to receive a three-year, $11.25MM deal, although that number now looks quite high considering some of the contracts that other players have received in the last week or so. Players ranked much higher, such as Evgenii Dadonov and Tyler Toffoli each had to settle for less than they were hoping for. Dadonov received three years and $15MM from Ottawa, while Toffoli signed a four-year deal at $17MM with the Montreal Canadiens.

Considering that Haula is coming off two injury-plagued and disappointing offensive seasons, it doesn’t seem likely that he can easily pry a long-term deal away from any team and may have to sign a one-year “prove it deal,” except for the fact that his services as a center could give him slightly more leverage than most free agents remaining on the market.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

NHL’s Free Agent Interview Period Could Return

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As if the 2020 off-season wasn’t already going to be strange, what with the October start date and flat salary cap, it also marked a new age in free agency negotiations with the removal of the free agent interview period. Well, it seems this new age may be short-lived. TSN’s Frank Seravalli reports that the NHL’s general managers have already discussed bringing back the interview period, with 48- and 72-hour periods being considered. Such a reinstatement would need to be approved by the NHLPA as well, as it is a collectively-bargained policy.

The interview period, also known as “legal tampering”, occurs just prior to the new league year beginning and the opening of free agency (which until this year has been July 1). It is a period of time in which teams can contact unrestricted free agents and their representation to discuss potential contract terms before the market officially opens. This policy, agreed upon in the previous CBA, led to a rush of contracts when the market opened, implying that teams and UFA’s had not only discussed contract terms, but agreed in principle. Upset that the interview period was being abused, the two sides eliminated the construct when the new CBA was ratified back in July.

Just a few months later, the teams want it back. This off-season has been much slower than usual, going all the way back to the first day the market opened. Being unable to discuss contract terms has undoubtedly impacted GM’s abilities to read market value and plan accordingly. The result has been a number of notable free agents – including two top-10 and 14 top-50 UFA’s per PHR – remaining unsigned several weeks into free agency.

Especially while dealing with the flat cap, this unpredictable market has helped no one. It is understandable why the teams would like it back and it is safe to assume that the players will agree. The interview period structure could certainly stand to be a bit stricter and perhaps a more limited time frame would also help avoid abuse, but a cold opening to free agency seems unsustainable moving forward.

Free Agent Profile: Mikael Granlund

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There are just two free agents left unsigned among the top ten of PHR’s Top 50 UFA’s. One of them, Mike Hoffman, has been a fixture on the rumor mill since the market opened, with as much discussion and speculation as anyone. The other is Mikael Granlund and things have been stunningly quiet surrounding the two-time 60+ point player.

Granlund, 28, is relatively young for a traditional UFA and has over 500 NHL games to his credit, recording over 100 career goals and over 350 career points. He is a proven asset on the power play and penalty kill, an efficient shooter, a strong possession player, and can play major minutes. Granlund may not be a household name, but he has been everything one would expect from a first-round draft pick. So why the apparent lack of interest?

It seems potential NHL suitors may be focused more on Granlund’s recent play rather than looking at the big picture. The versatile forward was traded by the Minnesota Wild to the Nashville Predators at the trade deadline in 2019. Since that time, his scoring rate dropped from .69 to .44 points per game. That is quite the decline and not what any impending free agent wants to see, but should it really be the death knell for Granlund’s prospects on the open market? In less than a season and a half in Nashville, Granlund played for two different head coaches with the Predators. He did not fit the system of former bench boss Peter Laviolette, who held the job through the end of 2018-19 and into early January of this past season. During that time, Granlund’s usage was severely limited compared to his time in Minnesota, both in overall ice time and special teams role. During that time his scoring suffered and he simply did not look like the same player. Once John Hynes took over, Granlund’s play recovered in a big way. He saw an uptick in ice time, began shooting more often and scoring more as a result, and finally won back a consistent power play role. Granlund even tied a career best in possession with a 52.4 Corsi For %.

Granlund’s play in the latter half of this past season more closely resembles his time with the Wild. A reliable top-six forward, Granlund was a pivotal player for Minnesota for over five years after taking on a full-time role at just 21. He topped 20 goals twice and 50 points three times, never finishing with less than 39 points. He also proved himself to be a durable player, missing only nine total games over his final four seasons with the team while skating over 18 minutes per game each year. He also adapted to a move from center to wing without missing a beat and still proved to be a capable pivot when needed.

In the right system, Granlund can still be the player he was in Minnesota and showed flashes of down the stretch this past year, rather than the one who struggled after moving to Nashville. That is why the lack of interest – at least based on close to nothing coming out the rumor mill – remains such a mystery.

Potential Suitors

Unfortunately for Granlund, one of the teams that could most use a player of his ability and has the cap space to sign him is none other than the Nashville Predators. Although Granlund did perform better once Hynes took over, it seems unlikely that he would be open to a return after his experience with the club was sour overall.

The Boston Bruins are also known to be looking for a forward. Granlund would have the opportunity to play with former Minnesota teammate Charlie Coyle and former Nashville teammate Craig Smith on a line that could have instant chemistry. However, the Bruins are lacking in cap space with Jake DeBrusk also in need of a new deal, so one of those two players would need to take a significant discount.

Perhaps the best fit is with the Columbus Blue Jackets. Columbus moved out considerable salary in hopes of landing at least one big time free agent forward, but so far have merely swapped Josh Anderson for Max Domi and signed aging Mikko Koivu, another former Granlund teammate. The team needs to make another splash and inject some more skill into their forward corps and Granlund makes a lot of sense.

By all accounts, the Predators, Bruins, and Blue Jackets are the finalists to sign the aforementioned Hoffman, who PHR has ranked ahead of Granlund among available UFA’s. At least one of these teams seems likely to turn to Granlund when they miss out on Hoffman, which may explain the lack of noise surrounding Granlund while the Hoffman sweepstakes continues.

If it is not one of these three, a rebuilding club like the Ottawa Senators, Detroit Red Wings, Los Angeles Kings or New Jersey Devils makes sense on a one-year “show me” deal. Don’t rule out a return to Minnesota, where Granlund found immense success, but only if the Wild can open up some space.

Projected Contract

PHR initially projected Granlund to land a four-year $20MM deal in free agency and even that $5MM AAV seemed low for a player nearly guaranteed to put up 50+ points for many years still to come. However, the flat cap has had an even bigger impact than anyone imagined on free agent deals and the odds of Granlund getting that term and value seems slim. This rings especially true after Tyler Toffoli and Evgenii Dadonov, both ranked ahead of Granlund, signed such measly deals recently. Based on those two contracts, Granlund is likely looking at an AAV closer to $4MM on a short-term deal.

While Granlund’s slip in production in 2019-20 landed him behind Dadonov and Toffoli in our rankings, he has a more proven history of NHL success than either one and would stand a better chance of making the most of a one-year deal and cashing in as a free agent again next summer. Especially given the forthcoming Expansions Draft next summer, a one-year deal has added value for interested teams. Whether he ultimately signs with a playoff hopeful or a rebuild, a one-year, $4MM contract sounds about right for Granlund at this point – and stands to be an incredible bargain for whoever signs it.

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