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Are The Atlantic Division Playoff Teams Already Set?

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It’s December and the 82-game NHL season is not even half over. Think what you will about the “Thanksgiving Rule”, but a lot can change over a long season. There’s no telling exactly how things will shake out this early in the campaign.

Yet, it seems almost impossible that the 2018 Stanley Cup Playoffs entries from the Atlantic Division are not already set. The Tampa Bay Lightning (23-6-2, 48 pts, .774 PTS%) are the best team in the league. The Toronto Maple Leafs (20-13-1, 41 pts, .603 PTS%) are second in the division and tied for second in the Eastern Conference in points, despite a current three-game losing streak. The Boston Bruins (15-10-4, 34 pts, .586 PTS%) are the closest team to the Leafs in terms of points percentage in the East and rank third in points in the division with the least games played in the NHL. The rest of the teams in the Atlantic are not even close.

The Montreal Canadiens (14-14-4, 32 pts, .500 PTS%) perhaps represent the best bet at a spoiler in the Atlantic, but needed a 6-2-2 record in their last ten just to get to .500. The team is still struggling to find its identity under Claude Julien and there has been more talk of a rebuild than a playoff run this season. The Detroit Red Wings (12-13-7, 31 pts, .484 PTS%) are overachieving this season in the opinion of many, yet are still a ways out in the Atlantic. Despite a talented roster, the Florida Panthers (12-15-5, 29 pts, .453 PTS%) are in even worse shape. The Buffalo Sabres (8-18-7, 23 pts, .348 PTS%) are challenging for the worst record in the NHL and, with the team in turmoil, the Ottawa Senators (10-13-7, 27 pts, .450 PTS%) are trending in that direction as well.

As of now, these five Atlantic Division teams hold the five worst records in the Eastern Conference and five of the seven worst records in the entire NHL. Not only will they struggle to catch the Lightning, Leafs, and Bruins, but a wild card spot versus the relatively dominant Metropolitan Division also seems far outside the realm of possibility. If the Metro’s worst team is the two-time defending Stanley Cup champion Pittsburgh Penguins (16-14-3, 35 pts, .530 PTS%), how could any of the five hope to beat out its fourth and fifth best teams, currently the identical records of the New York Rangers and New York Islanders (17-12-3, 37 pts, .578 PTS%)?

A lot can change over the course of the NHL season, but in 2017-18 it seems very likely that the Atlantic Division playoff status is already set before the 2018 segment of the season even begins. Tampa Bay simply has too much talent to slow down. Toronto has the talent and youth to keep pushing forward. Boston is only now getting healthy for the first time this season. All three teams are likely to get better as the season progresses and, in turn, the gap between them and the remainder of the Atlantic will only get worse.

Henrik Borgstrom Likely To Turn Pro Next Season

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  • While Panthers center prospect Henrik Borgstrom hasn’t made up his mind as to whether or not he turns pro next season, his head coach Jim Montgomery told Walter Villa of the Miami Herald that he expects Florida to sign him which would eliminate his remaining college eligibility. The 23rd overall pick in 2016 is once again dominating with Denver University, posting 13 goals and 10 assists through the first 15 games of the season.  With that type of production, it’s hard to argue that it won’t be time for him to move up to the professional level.

Team Canada’s First Cuts Include Cody Glass

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TSN’s Bob McKenzie tweets that Vegas Golden Knights center Cody Glass has been cut from Canada’s World Junior team, along with Detroit Red Wings prospect Dennis Cholowski and Vancouver’s Kole Lind. Glass’ departure is somewhat of a surprise, if social media reactions are any indication. While they weren’t the only cuts today, they were two that certainly caught a lot of analysts off guard.

TSN projected Glass to be on the final roster back in August so the move is worthy of a double take. The Athletic’s Scott Wheeler tweets that Glass and Lind are second and third respectively in scoring for the WHL. Though the talent is hardly lacking for Canada, cutting two prominent scorers will get some attention. In addition to the aforementioned players, forward Jonathan Ang, and defenseman Logan Stanley were both cut loose.

To recap:

Canada Cuts:

F Cody Glass (Vegas Golden Knights)
F Kole Lind (Vancouver Canucks)
F Jonathan Ang (Florida Panthers)
D Dennis Cholowski (Detroit Red Wings)
D Logan Stanley (Winnipeg Jets)
G Samuel Harvey (2018 Draft Eligible)

 

Western Notes: Realignment, Ellis, Baertschi, Parise, Spurgeon

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In a long notebook with many takes, The Athletic’s Eric Duhatschek (subscription required) points out that assuming that Seattle does acquire an expansion team that starts in the 2020-21 season, realignment will have to happen as it’s highly unlikely Seattle will end up in the Central Division, which is the division that’s short one team.

Duhatschek suggests the smartest way to fix the divisional problem when/if Seattle gives the NHL a 32nd team, would be to move the Colorado Avalanche to the Pacific Divison and then move both the Calgary Flames and Edmonton Oilers to the Central Division. Geographically, that would make the most sense, although neither Edmonton or Calgary would make a great fit in the Central. One other possibility would be that by 2020-21, the Arizona Coyotes may have decided to move away and relocate. That could also fix the problem, but only time will tell.

  • Adam Vingan of the Tennessean writes that Nashville Predators defenseman Ryan Ellis has been practicing with the team and could return within the next couple of weeks. The 26-year-old stud defenseman has been out after knee surgery this summer. Vingan also writes that despite their solid defense, it’s likely the team will have to make a move with Matt Irwin and Anthony Bitetto the most likely candidates to be sent to the Milwaukee Admirals. Since the return of Yannick Weber a week ago, Irwin has been scratched twice, while Bitetto once.
  • Patrick Johnston of The Province writes that Vancouver Canucks winger Sven Baertschi, who took a puck to the face during last night’s game against the Calgary Flames, will return home to Vancouver rather than continue with the team on their current roadtrip. While there are no details on the severity of the injury, Johnston said the angle of the shot and its velocity would suggest the injury could be significant as he has already been ruled out for the team’s game against the Winnipeg Jets on Monday. The 25-year-old has struggled lately on offense, but is still third on the team with eight goals this year.
  • Sarah McLellan of the Star Tribune tweets that veteran Zach Parise and defenseman Jared Spurgeon are skating and may just be a couple of weeks away from returning to the team. Parise, who underwent back surgery in October, hasn’t played all year. He scored 19 goals and had 42 points last year for the Wild and was counted on to be a key contributor. Spurgeon has been out since Dec. 1 with a groin strain. He has three goals and 12 assists in 23 games this season.
  • The Arizona Coyotes will play in their 21st road game of the season tonight when they face the Chicago Blackhawks tonight. The Coyotes will be the first team in NHL history to play 21 road games within the first 66 days of the season, according to NHL.com’s Dave Vest.
  • Mike Chambers of the Denver Post tweets that defenseman Erik Johnson is fine after blocking a shot late in Saturday’s game against the Florida Panthers. He is expected to play Monday against the Pittsburgh Penguins.

Evgeni Dadonov Resumes On-Ice Workouts

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  • It appears that Florida could get winger Evgenii Dadonov back sooner than expected. He has resumed on-ice workouts and head coach Bob Boughner told Jameson Olive of the Panthers’ team site (Twitter link) that Dadonov will be back sooner than later.  The 28-year-old is dealing with a shoulder injury, one that was originally expected to keep him out four-to-six weeks.  He’s just two weeks into that so it appears that he is ahead of schedule in his recovery.

What Your Team Is Thankful For: Florida Panthers

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As the holiday season approaches, PHR will look at what teams are thankful for as the season nears the quarter point of completion. There also might be a few things your team would like down the road. We take a look at what’s gone well in the first month and what could improve as the season rolls on. So far we’ve covered ANA, ARZ, BUF, CGY, CAR, CBJ, COL, DET, LAK, NSH, NJD, NYI, STL, TOR, VAN, VGK and WSH.

What are the Florida Panthers most thankful for?

The upcoming 2018 draft class.

It’s not that the Florida Panthers are already out of playoff contention. They’re not. It’s that even if this season doesn’t turn around, and they do end up finishing where they are right now—that is, 28th out of 31 teams—they’ll be in fine shape at next year’s draft. The team already has some solid pieces up front, and two impressive young defensemen locked up long-term in Aaron Ekblad and Mike Matheson, but they need more on the back end and they know it. Luckily, this year’s draft class has several potential franchise-changing options on defense.

Rasmus Dahlin, projected at the moment to go first-overall is already a star in Sweden and could make his country’s Olympic squad before he turns 18. Adam Boqvist, another Swede, is just about as impressive and oozes elite offensive upside. Quinn Hughes and Ryan Merkley are both puck-rushing dynamos, though similarly undersized. If the small, mobile defender isn’t your thing, Noah Dobson, Jared McIssac, Bode Wilde and Evan Bouchard all carry more weight and two-way ability, though in different ways. In a nutshell, this year is loaded with defensive talent.

Florida has an extra thing going for them in the draft. While they don’t have their own second-round pick, they do have Arizona’s. Since the lottery only moves picks in the first round, and Arizona looks poised for another stint at or near the very bottom of the league, the Panthers are looking at selecting their second player somewhere in the early-thirties regardless of what they do for the rest of their season. There should still be plenty of talent in the early second.

Aleksander BarkovWho are the Panthers most thankful for?

Aleksander Barkov.

Quite simply, Barkov is a superstar. Not only is he well on his way to a career-high in points, currently sitting at 26 in 27 games, but he should receive Selke votes as one of the league’s best defensive forwards for the fourth straight year. Though he’s never won the trophy, it’s important to note that he’s still just 22-years old and already playing 23 minutes a night as one of the best two-way centers in the league. Not to mention that he’s signed for just $5.9MM for four more seasons and is on pace for his first 30-goal season. There’s no doubt that Florida has made some mistakes over the past few years, but signing Barkov long-term immediately wasn’t one of them.

Surrounding Barkov are Vincent Trochek and Jonathan Huberdeau, two other young stars not yet even halfway through their twenties. Both are basically point-per-game players this season, and though the Panthers clearly rely on those three more than a winning team should need to, they represent an excellent core to build around. All three are signed through at least 2021-22, giving the team more than enough time to give them the support they need.

What would the Panthers be even more thankful for?

A do-over at the Expansion draft.

It was obvious when Dale Tallon regained control of the Panthers that he didn’t agree with some of the decisions made by Tom Rowe and his more analytical-driven team. One of those decisions was Reilly Smith’s $25MM extension, which Tallon jettisoned at the expansion draft just before it was set to kick in. To rid their books of Smith’s contract, they left Jonathan Marchessault available for the Vegas Golden Knights to select, handing over a 30-goal scorer that was owed just $750K this season. Though it was considered a budget-slashing move at the time, just a few weeks later the Panthers signed Evgeni Dadonov to a three-year, $12MM contract and then handed Radim Vrbata $2.5MM on the open market.

Sure, Dadonov has been a very good player for the Panthers this season and Vrbata doesn’t come with the same long-term risk that Smith’s deal represented, but after watching the duo rack up 46 points through the first part of the season on playoff-bound (for now) Golden Knights there has to be some regret. Florida had to lose a player, as every team did, but sending Smith, allowing Marchessault to be selected, and receiving just a fourth-round pick in return looks like a huge blunder at this point. At the very least, Marchessault would have been worth much more than that as a rental player if this season had still ended up poorly.

What should be on the Panthers’ Holiday Wish List?

A bubble to keep Roberto Luongo healthy after he returns.

The Panthers are without their starting goaltender once again, as Luongo is out for some time with what is expected to be a groin injury. While James Reimer was signed for this very reason, he hasn’t been nearly good enough this season to inspire much confidence. Luongo, 39 in April, has been having his best season in years between injuries, recording a .928 save percentage and generally looking as sharp as ever. Reimer on the other hand has just an .892 mark (easily the worst of his career) and hasn’t been able to find his game just yet.

It’s likely that Reimer rebounds at least somewhat to the .914 goaltender he’s proven to be throughout his career, but if the Panthers are to make any run at a playoff spot this year they’ll need this to be the last injury of the season for Luongo. If Barkov and company can drag them a bit closer, perhaps the veteran goaltender can lead a late-season surge towards respectability.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Injury Updates: Luongo, Manning, Fleury

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It looked bad when Roberto Luongo was forced out of Monday’s game with an apparent lower-body injury, and the update won’t be very comforting to Florida Panthers fans. Head coach Bob Boughner told reporters that Luongo will miss an “extended period of time,” going as far as claiming five weeks could be a possibility. The Panthers wouldn’t confirm what the injury exactly is, though it’s believed to be the goaltender’s groin.

The 38-year old was playing exceptional this season, and carries a .928 save percentage on the season. While his play hasn’t suffered, injury was always a risk for a goaltender at his age as he showed by missing a large chunk of the season last year, and already being held out with a hand injury in the early going this season. The Panthers will turn to James Reimer and Harri Sateri for the time being, who will have to try and turn things around to keep the team in the playoff race. Florida currently sits seventh in the Atlantic, with just 24 points through 27 games.

Minor Transactions: 12/06/17

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As always, we’ll keep an eye on all the minor moves around the league today. One thing to keep an eye out for is teams releasing young players for the World Juniors, though it’s not clear if it will happen for anyone this year. Clayton Keller, Jesper Bratt and others have already been skipped over.

Mike Keenan Fired By KHL’s Kunlun Red Star

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Once Mike Keenan was stripped of his GM role this week, it was only a matter of time before the veteran coach was out of a job entirely. The KHL’s Kunlun Red Star made it official today, relieving Keenan of his coaching duties. The KHL’s first and only Chinese team had dropped nine straight games and is struggling to get out of the basement of the KHL’s Eastern Conference. Keenan, who joined the team last month and has been coaching in the KHL since 2013, was clearly not the answer for a team still looking to make a dent as a franchise. The evidence: Kunlun won their first game without Keenan behind the bench today.

Keenan of course is well-known for his time as a coach in the NHL. A tough personality to deal with, Keenan found much success in the NHL, but never with the same team for very long. His first head coaching job in the league was with the Philadelphia Flyers in 1984-85. Keenan spent four years with the Flyers, the next four years with the Chicago Blackhawks, one year with the New York Rangers in 1993-94, in which he led the team to their most recent Stanley Cup title, then three years with the St. Louis Blues, two years with the Vancouver Canucks, one year with the Boston Bruins, three years with the Florida Panthers, and, in his final NHL job to date, two years with the Calgary Flames ending in 2008-09. Keenan made the jump overseas in 2013 to join Metallurg Magnitogorsk and won a KHL championship in his first season. Keenan joined the Red Star after being fired by Metallurg in 2016.

Keenan’s job with Kunlun now goes to his assistant, former NHLer Bobby Carpenter, with other assistants and former pros Cliff Ronning and Igor Kravchuk sticking by as well. The trio have nearly 3000 games of NHL experience between them and, as almost any coach to ever follow Keenan has found, should be able to relate better to the Red Star players.

Mika Zibanejad Out With Concussion

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The New York Rangers, fresh off a loss at the hands of the Florida Panthers have confirmed that Mika Zibanejad—who missed that game with an upper-body injury—has suffered a concussion and will not practice with the team. New York did add a center in Peter Holland earlier today, but it was expected that he’ll remain in Hartford for at least the time being.

Zibanejad was scratched from the Florida game just before it started, but according to head coach Alain Vigneault (via Matt Calamia of NHL.com) he suffered the concussion during last Friday’s game against the Detroit Red Wings. Symptoms didn’t present themselves until Tuesday morning. It’s a huge loss for the Rangers, who already had depth issues at center ice after trading away Derek Stepan in the offseason. Zibanejad had taken over as the top option in the middle and led the team in scoring through 25 games.

If he’s out for an extended period of time, Holland or even Filip Chytil could potentially see time in the middle once again. Chytil did begin the year with the Rangers but has been playing in Hartford for some time. The first-round pick 12 points in 13 games for the AHL club, but is still a raw prospect at just 18 years of age.

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